Yougov poll shows Osborne losing the Midlands/Wales to Corbyn but Boris winning it. Corbyn narrowly leads Osborne 38% to 36% but Boris leads Corbyn 44% to 32% https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes?lang=en-gb
Can someone explain to me why it is okay for the German and Dutch state to own railway franchises in this country but it isn't okay for the British state to own the franchises? TFL is state owned and it is probably the best run mass transit system in Europe. Could a new BR not follow a similar path and slowly take over the franchises and begin returning profits to the taxpayer for rail investment rather than to overseas shareholders and governments?
Nationalised BR, profit, now there must be fairies involved somewhere
DRO ECML made a profit, I don't see why the legacy of BR bloat would be reintroduced to companies which are already profit focussed.
Profits fall when expenses increase, or revenues fall.
Given the customer service decline likely in nationalised industries, after employees rather than customers become the main focus, the record rises in rail use would likely begin to level out if not fall. And, if you want fares to be cut, then revenue per customer would likely fall too.
Can someone explain to me why it is okay for the German and Dutch state to own railway franchises in this country but it isn't okay for the British state to own the franchises? TFL is state owned and it is probably the best run mass transit system in Europe. Could a new BR not follow a similar path and slowly take over the franchises and begin returning profits to the taxpayer for rail investment rather than to overseas shareholders and governments?
Nationalised BR, profit, now there must be fairies involved somewhere
DRO ECML made a profit, I don't see why the legacy of BR bloat would be reintroduced to companies which are already profit focussed.
Indeed. When air-travel becomes many times cheaper than train-travel or bus-travel you know that something is wrong with rail and bus services, it just smells of monopoly position abuse.
Can someone explain to me why it is okay for the German and Dutch state to own railway franchises in this country but it isn't okay for the British state to own the franchises? TFL is state owned and it is probably the best run mass transit system in Europe. Could a new BR not follow a similar path and slowly take over the franchises and begin returning profits to the taxpayer for rail investment rather than to overseas shareholders and governments?
Nationalised BR, profit, now there must be fairies involved somewhere
DRO ECML made a profit, I don't see why the legacy of BR bloat would be reintroduced to companies which are already profit focussed.
Overall Yougov finds Tory voters narrowly prefer Boris to Osborne 31% to 29% with May third on 21%. Voters as a whole prefer Boris by a larger margin giving him 25% with May second on 15% and Osborne third 13%. Javid is fourth with both but does worse with Tory voters, 2%, than all voters, where he gets 5% https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes?lang=en-gb
Thanks to Sandpit for his meticulous assessment from Dubai - much better than the casual journalism that we're getting from the MSM, and the sort of thing that makes PB so useful.
Thanks Nick, and Happy New Year to you
It's scary watching especially the TV news media report on a story you have some knowledge about, especially technical subjects. It makes one wonder about the accuracy of all the stories, on which we rely on those same media to keep us informed!
It is probably the main reason I read / interact PB...It is a community where the MSM BS doesn't wash and filled full of people who are extremely knowledge about a whole range of different sectors, not just politics.
As part of my various jobs I've read countless news articles over the years on subjects that I knew quite a lot about. On big events like the Budget they were pretty accurate. On nearly everything else they contained errors of omission or commission, some very significant. Sometimes these appeared to reflect either a political bias or, more often, a wish to make an article a consistent picture (e.g. a piece on flooding that only contains quotes from one side of the story, or even distorts a quote to fit). But often they seemed to be just sloppy - the reporter evidently didn't really care and the issue wasn't important enough to check.
The classic of making reports fit the story was told to me by the former Scrabble champion Richard Sharp:
Reporter: "Do you read dictionaries in your bath?" Sharp: "Of course not. They'd get wet, and anyway it'd be ridiculous."
News report next day (in The Times IIRC): "The Scrabble champion who reads dictionaries in the bath"
He complained, and there was a small correction on page 8 a few days later.
Overall Yougov finds Tory voters narrowly prefer Boris to Osborne 31% to 29% with May third on 21%. Voters as a whole prefer Boris by a larger margin giving him 25% with May second on 15% and Osborne third 13%. Javid is fourth with both but does worse with Tory voters, 2%, than all voters, where he gets 5% https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes?lang=en-gb
I would prefer to see the tables rather than the tweets.
Overall Yougov finds Tory voters narrowly prefer Boris to Osborne 31% to 29% with May third on 21%. Voters as a whole prefer Boris by a larger margin giving him 25% with May second on 15% and Osborne third 13%. Javid is fourth with both but does worse with Tory voters, 2%, than all voters, where he gets 5% https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes?lang=en-gb
I would prefer to see the tables rather than the tweets.
Indeed that would be helpful for confirmation but for the moment we just have the tweets and the Times summary
Can someone explain to me why it is okay for the German and Dutch state to own railway franchises in this country but it isn't okay for the British state to own the franchises? TFL is state owned and it is probably the best run mass transit system in Europe. Could a new BR not follow a similar path and slowly take over the franchises and begin returning profits to the taxpayer for rail investment rather than to overseas shareholders and governments?
Nationalised BR, profit, now there must be fairies involved somewhere
DRO ECML made a profit, I don't see why the legacy of BR bloat would be reintroduced to companies which are already profit focussed.
Profits fall when expenses increase, or revenues fall.
Given the customer service decline likely in nationalised industries, after employees rather than customers become the main focus, the record rises in rail use would likely begin to level out if not fall. And, if you want fares to be cut, then revenue per customer would likely fall too.
Bang goes that margin.
The point being that you just keep the existing structures in place, the state can bid for franchises against private companies, that will keep it a profit focussed venture. If the franchise becomes unprofitable it fails and goes back onto the market.
Broadly in agreement with Alastair, but for Zac and Leave, where I think it is too close to call on both.
My predictions:
1) Tories will overtake Labour's share of the vote in Scottish elections 2) Corbyn's poll ratings will continue to decline 3) Ken Livingstone will be leave frontline politics 4) Cameron will indicate that he might remain as leader till after 2020 election 5) Lib Dems will continue to make no progress in any parly by-election. Unless there is a Lib Dem incumbent BE, I see them failing to keep their deposit in any 2016 by election 6) Ed Balls will return to frontline politics 7) UKIP poll numbers will continue to decline 8) 2016 Budget will speed up introduction of universal credit, getting the pain out of the way by April 2017. It will also increase threshold for 40% tax rate by £2500. 9) Labour will not poll higher than the Tories in any BPC approved poll this year.
No. 4 is interesting. I've always thought that if Cameron's preferred successor and best friend doesn't look like giving a guaranteed result against new old Labour (or if, God forbid, he's not the party's choice), then he'll suggest that he might, just might and for the benefit of the nation, be willing to stand again. Hurrah, hosanna, we are saved!
I can see the path that would lead to that situation, but I feel like even if he was inclined to try it his other rivals and the regular malcontents would not let it stand, even if Osborne was willing to step aside having seen his chance of succeeding was low. Time for new leadership, Cameron's day gone, etc etc.
I had wondered if the plan might be for Cameron to announce a planned departure after a successful referendum win (if he loses I doubt he'll last long, unless the vote is very early in the term), but not immediately. So he says he is staying on for a year as the Tories have an extended leadership campaign, and if none of them polls well, the clamour for him to stay on occurs and he 'reluctantly' does so.
Leaving aside if he even wants that (or could be persuaded to it), it was on the assumption a vote on the referendum would be around 2017, the idea being he'd leave in 2018 for his successor to have a run in to the GE, but if the EU vote is 2016, even if he loses I can see him trying to hand on, and if he wins too early to hand over (as I thought the plan would be, to put aside the divisions in the party that would have been stirred up).
This overview won't be news to anyone who's been following the GOP race closely, but it's a good survey and contains some information that was news to m, at least:
This overview won't be news to anyone who's been following the GOP race closely, but it's a good survey and contains some information that was news to m, at least:
Can someone explain to me why it is okay for the German and Dutch state to own railway franchises in this country but it isn't okay for the British state to own the franchises? TFL is state owned and it is probably the best run mass transit system in Europe. Could a new BR not follow a similar path and slowly take over the franchises and begin returning profits to the taxpayer for rail investment rather than to overseas shareholders and governments?
Nationalised BR, profit, now there must be fairies involved somewhere
DRO ECML made a profit, I don't see why the legacy of BR bloat would be reintroduced to companies which are already profit focussed.
Profits fall when expenses increase, or revenues fall.
Given the customer service decline likely in nationalised industries, after employees rather than customers become the main focus, the record rises in rail use would likely begin to level out if not fall. And, if you want fares to be cut, then revenue per customer would likely fall too.
Bang goes that margin.
The point being that you just keep the existing structures in place, the state can bid for franchises against private companies, that will keep it a profit focussed venture. If the franchise becomes unprofitable it fails and goes back onto the market.
Apart from whinging about fare increases, you've yet to explain why there is a need for this.
The consumer railways (i.e. TOCs) are good, and getting better. And they're finally paying money into the exchequer.
You ought to focus on the privatisation of Network Rail, not the nationalisation of the TOCs.
Shadsy has bands up for remain and I think the 60-65% band at 8/1 is good value.
The odds seem weighted to it being close, but the polls are pretty poor and infested with cyber-kippers and do not deserve much weight. I think that there is value at both extremes of Shadsys bands.
The consensus at the GE was for a hung parliament, and the money to be made was at the extreme positions. I bet heavily on the Lab 226-250 band on the basis of Jacks ARSE. I got slightly twitchy as the night wore on that they wouldnt make 226!
Shadsy also has Remain/Leave by home nation. He clearly expects a strong remain vote everywhere but much tighter in England. England for Leave; the rest for Remain would make for a constitutional crisis, but I think England will dodge that by going for Remain too.
I think if you're confident of a strong Remain vote then I say go for it. As you say, there's a tendency to expect these votes to be close.
On the different countries, I don't think there would be a crisis if England votes to leave and the others don't. Ultimately they are just regions of the UK and my vote in England is worth the same as vote by someone in Dundee. I actually expect there to be little difference between England and Wales.
The tendency is indeed to expect these votes to be close. The Sindyref being a classical example. The fanaticism of the Leavers/Yes is one aspect, but the media of all sorts likes to depict a close race. I vaguely recall that even the AV one was billed that way.
No expert but I believe it will be big majority for REMAIN. However it appears most of the angst is in England and I hav eno idea what people think there apart from opinions here. My guess is most ordinary people will vote to stay.
Who are ordinary people?
To him...? Scottish.
Bigoted little Englanders just cannot help themselves. Get your inferiority complex treated, I was of course meaning that most people are not interested in politics or In/Out of Europe. We do know Scotland will be for IN and my guess is England , which as ever will decide the UK position due to population size, will vote to Remain.
I agree that you know nothing about the English. It's your lack of feel for Scottish matters that's surprising, normally the second generation is more in touch with its new home.
Comments
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes?lang=en-gb
Given the customer service decline likely in nationalised industries, after employees rather than customers become the main focus, the record rises in rail use would likely begin to level out if not fall. And, if you want fares to be cut, then revenue per customer would likely fall too.
Bang goes that margin.
When air-travel becomes many times cheaper than train-travel or bus-travel you know that something is wrong with rail and bus services, it just smells of monopoly position abuse.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes?lang=en-gb
The classic of making reports fit the story was told to me by the former Scrabble champion Richard Sharp:
Reporter: "Do you read dictionaries in your bath?"
Sharp: "Of course not. They'd get wet, and anyway it'd be ridiculous."
News report next day (in The Times IIRC): "The Scrabble champion who reads dictionaries in the bath"
He complained, and there was a small correction on page 8 a few days later.
1. Dave will delay EU referendum until early 2017 after polls in May show LEAVE with 4% lead
2. Farage will resign Leadership of UKIP in March or April 2016
3. Corbyn suffers ill health June and guess who takes over the leadership?
4. The Donald wins in Iowa by a hair and handsomely in New Hampshire.
5. EU closes most of it's borders. Merkel is smothered.
Edit: My crystal Ball is too fogged up to predict the London Mayors race.
https://twitter.com/JananGanesh?lang=en-gb
I had wondered if the plan might be for Cameron to announce a planned departure after a successful referendum win (if he loses I doubt he'll last long, unless the vote is very early in the term), but not immediately. So he says he is staying on for a year as the Tories have an extended leadership campaign, and if none of them polls well, the clamour for him to stay on occurs and he 'reluctantly' does so.
Leaving aside if he even wants that (or could be persuaded to it), it was on the assumption a vote on the referendum would be around 2017, the idea being he'd leave in 2018 for his successor to have a run in to the GE, but if the EU vote is 2016, even if he loses I can see him trying to hand on, and if he wins too early to hand over (as I thought the plan would be, to put aside the divisions in the party that would have been stirred up).
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jan/01/us-presidential-election-2016-republican-candidates-donald-trump-ted-cruz-marco-rubio
https://twitter.com/UpshotNYT/status/682541605191073792
The consumer railways (i.e. TOCs) are good, and getting better. And they're finally paying money into the exchequer.
You ought to focus on the privatisation of Network Rail, not the nationalisation of the TOCs.