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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the New Year rolls in Alastair Meeks makes his predictio
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the New Year rolls in Alastair Meeks makes his predictions
Making predictions is a mug’s game as I showed in my last post. So I shall now prove that I have not learned from experience and have another go.
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It helps (in my dating exploits at least) that I was born in the year of the Wooden Snake (aka the Heavenly Branch)...
Damn, this port is good!
(^_-)
Keep the smile, Leave the tear, Hold the laugh, Leave the pain, Think of joy, Forget the fear.
Be joyous, because its a New Year !!
Night all.....
Boris Johnson: 25%
Theresa May: 15%
George Osborne: 13%
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4653821.ece
I think I agree with all your predictions except 8. I'm very doubtful that Remain will win and it is does I think it will be close. I hope I'm wrong but I think there's too much pent-up anti-EU sentiment. Of course, this has implications for 10 but I don't see the Conservative Party actually splitting almost no matter what.
Oh, and Happy New Year.
Now attention moves to Jerry World aka the Jones Mahal, where Alabama will play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl. Bama is a 10 point favorite.
Clemson and Alabama have been my favorite college teams for decades.
I dread watching them play each other for the national championship.
You might want to check with an immigration lawyer in the new year - there was an item on the news today about some visa restrictions being eased soon.
So instead of Roll Tide or Go Tigers I'll have say Roll Tigers or something.
Even worse - the game's on my birthday.
At Alabama the 'million dollar band' comes out before the game and spells BAMA on the field.
1. Householders obviously should have a right to defend themselves on their own property.
2. But that is clearly not an unlimited one: you have no right to kidnap and torture someone who burgles you.
There should be a wide degree of latitude given to householders, given they are the ones who feel frightened.
I think Tony Martin crossed the line on 2. But it was by no means clear he was attempting to kill anybody. Manslaughter feels right.
It has everything from a knockout theme song to a fantastic villain - Oddjob.
and that fabulous Fort Knox set. Ken Adam's main achievement, except possibly for the volcano set in You Only Live Twice.
If you don't live in the US it's probably difficult to do so.
What about the line "Shocking. Positively shocking."
That's why there is now a committee to decide the 4 teams in the playoff.
At the end of the season the top 4 teams play off. They are tonight - number 1 Clemson beat No.4 Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, and #2 Alabama is leading #3 Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl at half time by 10 - 0.
The final is on Jan 11th.
I just can't get into something where some smoke filled room decides which are the 4 best teams and they play-off. And this is fairly new, right? A one point there was what felt like 20 different "Bowls", where teams played off, but never the best across the whole country would meet.
There's no good way to do this.
Remember college football is worth billions a year. It's a big business. Every college sports program, from golf to baseball to lacrosse, loses money. Football pays for all of it and then some. Top coaches earn $6-8 million a year or more.
Everybody earns money at college football - except the players. That seems wrong somehow.
So it's Bama v Clemson.
Bugger
Happy 2016.
Still, Happy New Year to all PBers and friends. May you all prosper in 2016.
India’s Finance Minister has said that his country “does not require” British aid, describing it as “peanuts”.
British overseas aid is there just to make cameron feel good!
Osborne was said to be aware of his own unelectability as Prime Minister but now the Conservative leader has only to be better than Corbyn, he is surely more likely to stand.
If Boris is to be a serious candidate for Prime Minister, he urgently needs to get some cabinet experience, but there is no obvious vacancy and no reason for Cameron (or Osborne) to promote him. The next best thing might be the EU referendum, where he is one of the few whose media profile outshines Farage.
So the prediction is that Boris will lead the EU referendum campaign (and it does not really matter which side).
Mr. Urquhart, what's the Archsocialist done now?
Goldfinger is an excellent Bond.
Happy New Year etc. The hound was a bit put out by the fireworks, but there didn't seem to be that many this year (possibly due to rain).
The suggested Leave percentage is more or less in line with my own view. I think Remain will win by a substantial margin.
Point 10's a bit of a soft point. Nobody's suggested the Conservatives splitting. Despite the sound reasons for it, not many are even suggesting Labour splitting, and they're led by an unreconstructed 1980s Communist sympathiser, the sort of buffoon who isn't happy about suicide bombers being shot dead.
(5) No. Goldsmith will win, people won't want a Muslim Mayor.
(7/8) I notice AM doesn't define "low". There was a 65% turnout in 1975; I doubt it will reach 60% this time. The 20-25% of the electorate that is on the left will largely abstain as both campaigns focus on the right-wing voters.
(10) I don't understand DC's plan. It's logical to stand down after winning the referendum or after the next General Election, but not really at any time between. I expect him to stay on, because his Party doesn't really have anyone else.
No fireworks down here - unless my brandy and champers log-like sleep missed them... It lashed with rain/hail all evening.
I'm not sure about Cameron's serious-face NY message - all a bit grim. Welby's was just too intense - all dog collar serial killer.
Brendan Barbar is drowning on Sky - he's head of ACAS, saying he doesn't have a view on the EU ref - then contradicting himself and saying why leaving the EU is a bad idea - as he's a former union boss... Should have stayed in bed, me thinks.
I still think there's a chance the referendum won't happen this year, but if it does then I agree that September seems likely. Another summer of migrants trekking across Europe and trouble at Calais may make things interesting. I suspect Remain will win - but maybe not by quite as much as 60:40.
We don't tend to hear much about Wales, but Labour losing it's majority (if you can call 30/60 seats a majority) seems probable. One stat from the General Election that hasn't had as much coverage as it deserves is that in Wales Ukip received more votes than Plaid Cymru. I don't know quite how well Ukip will do, but I guess they can expect an AM or two.
Slightly more up to date: "Britain will be ending bilateral aid to India by the end of this year." (2015)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-34398449
Not that I expect Kippers to bother learning anything about foreign aid ...
In this season of goodwill, I began to wonder why I dislike Corbyn and his acolytes so much.
Some of their policies are reasonable. I like the idea of saying what you think and I approve of some of the economic ideas. I used to vote Labour and possibly could be brought back, but Jezza .... sheesh!
I'd put it down to three things ...
(1) Moral Superiority. They know the are better than the rest of us. The are cleverer and have better judgement. They cannot be wrong. The sin of Pride.
(2) Lack of logic. They always support the underdog, a noble aim, but they are choosy about the underdog. Stereotyping is always wrong, yet Americans are thick because they don't always agree with them, and they're always wrong. Homophobia is always wrong, unless it's Islamic.
(3) Absolutism. "I've never kissed a Tory". Embarrassing. Would an eighteen-year-old boy ask a gorgeous woman what her politics are? Only in Jezza land. Everyone who doesn't agree with them is the enemy. Hilary Benn is a fascist.
The three traits add up to those of a spoilt child - the it's not fair and I know I'm right and everyone else is wrong and I want it cos I want it attitude.
Golding was writing about them when he won his Nobel prize. Voting for Jezza is voting to live in a society based on "Lord of the Flies."
No, thanks.
If I were to make one prediction it would be for a Labour split - i just can't see the moderate, electable Blairite MPs, who see politics as a game to win, put up with Corbyn for 12 months more.
May everyone have a happy, successful and prosperous 2016!
The chaps and ladies who want to win may consider (and it won't hurt that this is the softer, easier, lazier option) that just waiting for Corbyn to fail will give them a chance to retake the leadership.
Of course, he'll have completely rewritten the rule book by then...
The Labour party might not split but there might be defections to the LD's. I seriously worry about the right of the Tory party taking over as pointed out by Antifrank. I would have to abstain... which is why I think Dave might stay,
That's as bad as people who loathe the EU but won't vote to leave because that's what Farage wants.
Not to mention that circumventing democracy isn't exactly burnishing one's political credentials.
Edit: oops, replying to Alistair Meeks....
She's a fan of Homeland, Breaking Bad and House of Cards [US]
Shadsy has bands up for remain and I think the 60-65% band at 8/1 is good value.
The odds seem weighted to it being close, but the polls are pretty poor and infested with cyber-kippers and do not deserve much weight. I think that there is value at both extremes of Shadsys bands.
The consensus at the GE was for a hung parliament, and the money to be made was at the extreme positions. I bet heavily on the Lab 226-250 band on the basis of Jacks ARSE. I got slightly twitchy as the night wore on that they wouldnt make 226!
Shadsy also has Remain/Leave by home nation. He clearly expects a strong remain vote everywhere but much tighter in England. England for Leave; the rest for Remain would make for a constitutional crisis, but I think England will dodge that by going for Remain too.
If Leave coalesced around EFTA/EEA, then I think it probably would win, because a lot of businesses would prefer that to be inside the SEA, but with lower and tax and regulatory burdens. However, because I suspect Leave is going to be myopically focused on immigration, it will lose the ability to pick up the votes of much of the 20% of the country that wants a Norwegian type relationship with the EU.
If the UK ex-Scotland has a 100,000 Leave majority, and Scotland has a 150,000 Remain majority, that may provoke some consternation.
I think every bit save England is guaranteed to be for Remain, and England will likely go that way too, albeit by a lower percentage.
On the different countries, I don't think there would be a crisis if England votes to leave and the others don't. Ultimately they are just regions of the UK and my vote in England is worth the same as vote by someone in Dundee. I actually expect there to be little difference between England and Wales.