''I think that the number of hardcore Leavers outnumber the hardcore Remains, and therefore turnout will be important.''
I suspect the number of hardcord 'leave and turn our backs on Europe' brigade isn't that big. Most are in between outright leave and in on these terms.
Dave's deal won;t be enough, but I suspect more will be offered as the polls remain resolutely leave as we head for the vote.
The voters will get the deal that Dave can't - or won't
''I think that the number of hardcore Leavers outnumber the hardcore Remains, and therefore turnout will be important.''
I suspect the number of hardcord 'leave and turn our backs on Europe' brigade isn't that big. Most are in between outright leave and in on these terms.
Dave's deal won;t be enough, but I suspect more will be offered as the polls remain resolutely leave as we head for the vote.
The voters will get the deal that Dave can't - or von't
That's a very interesting point: a sort of Scottish type situation where the goodies get pilled on as we get closer and closer to polling day.
(And one which leads to UKIPper answering for "remain" if they are polled to try to prevent to flow of goodies, while others claim "out" to keep 'em coming.)
Shadsy has bands up for remain and I think the 60-65% band at 8/1 is good value.
The odds seem weighted to it being close, but the polls are pretty poor and infested with cyber-kippers and do not deserve much weight. I think that there is value at both extremes of Shadsys bands.
The consensus at the GE was for a hung parliament, and the money to be made was at the extreme positions. I bet heavily on the Lab 226-250 band on the basis of Jacks ARSE. I got slightly twitchy as the night wore on that they wouldnt make 226!
Shadsy also has Remain/Leave by home nation. He clearly expects a strong remain vote everywhere but much tighter in England. England for Leave; the rest for Remain would make for a constitutional crisis, but I think England will dodge that by going for Remain too.
I think if you're confident of a strong Remain vote then I say go for it. As you say, there's a tendency to expect these votes to be close.
On the different countries, I don't think there would be a crisis if England votes to leave and the others don't. Ultimately they are just regions of the UK and my vote in England is worth the same as vote by someone in Dundee. I actually expect there to be little difference between England and Wales.
The tendency is indeed to expect these votes to be close. The Sindyref being a classical example. The fanaticism of the Leavers/Yes is one aspect, but the media of all sorts likes to depict a close race. I vaguely recall that even the AV one was billed that way.
Dubai fire update: It appears to be still smouldering this morning, but by most reports there were few casualties. The authorities will be aware that a coverup won't work when most of the occupants were Arabs and Westeners.
The first dozen or so floors are a conventional hotel, the upper floors are hotel apartments popular with City workers and companies. There's approx 200 hotel rooms and 600 apartments. The top floor (63rd) is a bar (Neos) that would have been full of a couple of hundred people who have sore feet this morning! It's 305 metres tell, the same height roughly as the Shard in London. The Address Downtown is 500m from the Burj Khalifa, and it's fair to say that rooms facing the worlds tallest building would have been sold out months ago at rack rates, Being pretty much the best place possible to watch the midnight fireworks.
The fire appeared to start on a terrace around 10 floors up at 21:30, and spread up the outside of the building quite quickly. The cladding is made of aluminium, old building codes here didn't mandate the same levels of fire retardance as in Europe or the US. The local building codes were changed three or four years ago following a similar fire in a residential block at the other end of town (Tamweel Tower). The fire on the cladding looks worse than it is, most of the damage will be to the exterior of the building. Inside are modern sprinkler systems and most of the internal damage is probably from water rather than fire. The fire alarms were apparently late to go off, as the mainly external fire didn't trigger smoke detectors inside the building. It's unlikely the building is unsafe, I might head down there later and see how big is the exclusion zone around it. There's a huge mall (Dubai Mall) next door (50m away) that was also evacuated last night. There had been stories in the past few days of local coffee shops and fast food joints putting up a 1000dhm (£165) cover charge for seats on the terrace overlooking the fireworks!
There would have been some interesting high-level conversations about whether or not to go ahead with the fireworks at midnight, but on balance to cancel them would have caused problems with the estimated million-strong crowd that had gathered in the vicinity to watch. Same consideration as the Paris football match last month. I guess as long as the safety officers (fireworks team was from the US I think) were happy that they wouldn't make the fire worse then it was better for everyone to go ahead, although the local leaders would obviously have wanted things to go ahead for publicity reasons.
Quote of the night, from the local Gulf News live blog: [Apart from the hotel and the mall a couple of hundred metres away being evacuated] "Other areas further from the fire are unaffected and people are still lined up for the event. All gazes were averted from the burning hotel"
''That's a very interesting point: a sort of Scottish type situation where the goodies get piled on as we get closer and closer to polling day.''
Yes that's my view. I guess voters aren't political nerds like us but they go on holidays, business trips etc and they can appreciate the general situation.
They probably figure Europe needs Britain to leave like a hole in the head, and that all these treaties and such are so much b8llocks that is ripped up when it suits.
Thus, if you are on leave be prepared to have the rug pulled out as Juncker crawls up Whitehall on his hands and knees on the eve of the vote.
Mr. Taffys, I don't think the situations are that close.
Wales or Northern Ireland are unlikely to ask for independence (the finances don't stack up).
Other EU nations could quite easily leave [economically]. The EU throwing us sweeties will encourage other sceptic parties to promise votes to leave, knowing they'll get goodies thrown their way.
''That's a very interesting point: a sort of Scottish type situation where the goodies get piled on as we get closer and closer to polling day.''
Yes that's my view. I guess voters aren't political nerds like us but they go on holidays, business trips etc and they can appreciate the general situation.
They probably figure Europe needs Britain to leave like a hole in the head, and that all these treaties and such are so much b8llocks that is ripped up when it suits.
Thus, if you are on leave be prepared to have the rug pulled out as Juncker crawls up Whitehall on his hands and knees on the eve of the vote.
I don't think that very plausible. I do not think that the Eurocrats would be very upset if we vote Leave. It would be like an obnoxious person leaving a pub. What the Landlord loses in business he gains from the regulars being more happy.
I think the Leavers overestimate their own influence.
I think the Constitutional crisis happens if the overall vote is for Leave but all the Home nations bar England vote Remain. The contrary where we Remain despite England voting Leave would be less constitutionally explosive, though probably significant.
''Other EU nations could quite easily leave [economically]. The EU throwing us sweeties will encourage other sceptic parties to promise votes to leave, knowing they'll get goodies thrown their way.''
I appreciate your point Mr Morris, but I think the EU nations mostly have a big reason to be in the EU that does not really apply to Britain. For Germany its domination, for France its Germany, and for the rest, its money or protection.
Mr. Taffys, I don't think the situations are that close.
Wales or Northern Ireland are unlikely to ask for independence (the finances don't stack up).
Other EU nations could quite easily leave [economically]. The EU throwing us sweeties will encourage other sceptic parties to promise votes to leave, knowing they'll get goodies thrown their way.
Dubai fire update: It appears to be still smouldering this morning, but by most reports there were few casualties. The authorities will be aware that a coverup won't work when most of the occupants were Arabs and Westeners. (snip) Quote of the night, from the local Gulf News live blog: [Apart from the hotel and the mall a couple of hundred metres away being evacuated] "Other areas further from the fire are unaffected and people are still lined up for the event. All gazes were averted from the burning hotel"
Thanks for that, very interesting. It looks as though they got lucky.
Do you have any comment on why there are so many large-scale fires on tall buildings over there?
Mr. Taffys, have we been calling the tune recently?
The EU is Germany's show.
Edited extra bit: your view is what ought to be right, and what lots of people will think instinctively, so I do think it'll have an impact on voting (helpful for Remain). I don't think it reflects reality, however.
''I don't think that very plausible. I do not think that the Eurocrats would be very upset if we vote Leave. It would be like an obnoxious person leaving a pub. What the Landlord loses in business he gains from the regulars being more happy.''
That's an interesting analogy, but were not just paying for our own drinks, we're buying rounds for Spain and Greece too.
I think the Eurocrats know this too. Think of the astonishing amount of patronage they have bought with the half a trillion pounds we've paid since joining.
Mr. Taffys, have we been calling the tune recently?
The EU is Germany's show.
Edited extra bit: your view is what ought to be right, and what lots of people will think instinctively, so I do think it'll have an impact on voting (helpful for Remain). I don't think it reflects reality, however.
Britain is facing a new threat to its border after France announced the construction of a “Sangatte”-style refugee camp less than 50 miles from Dover, prompting fears it will intensify the migrant crisis.
A sprawling migrant centre – the first official camp in France for more than 13 years - will be built near an existing shanty town at Grande-Synthe, just five miles from the ferry port which links Dunkirk with the British coast.
The £1.1 million construction bill will be picked up by the French government, officials announced, and work is to start immediately with new facilities opening within weeks.
''Other EU nations could quite easily leave [economically]. The EU throwing us sweeties will encourage other sceptic parties to promise votes to leave, knowing they'll get goodies thrown their way.''
I appreciate your point Mr Morris, but I think the EU nations mostly have a big reason to be in the EU that does not really apply to Britain. For Germany its domination, for France its Germany, and for the rest, its money or protection.
My view for some time has been that our exit would benefit both us and the EU. Frankly, the Eurozone - if it is to survive - needs to evolve into something that looks much more like a country. If we are involved in the EU, I don't think the Eurozone will be able to make the changes it needs to make, and therefore its best hope of survival is for us to leave. I also suspect the shock of our departure will force a rethink about the lack of democratic accountability inside the EU, and will probably lead to reforms there too.
The fire appeared to start on a terrace around 10 floors up at 21:30, and spread up the outside of the building quite quickly. The cladding is made of aluminium, old building codes here didn't mandate the same levels of fire retardance as in Europe or the US. The local building codes were changed three or four years ago following a similar fire in a residential block at the other end of town (Tamweel Tower). The fire on the cladding looks worse than it is, most of the damage will be to the exterior of the building. Inside are modern sprinkler systems and most of the internal damage is probably from water rather than fire.
Sounds similar to a fire on the STAR PRINCESS - exterior balconies - looks horrendous, but the sprinklers kept the fire out of the interior and there was only one fatality - an elderly gentleman of smoke inhalation:
''I don't think that very plausible. I do not think that the Eurocrats would be very upset if we vote Leave. It would be like an obnoxious person leaving a pub. What the Landlord loses in business he gains from the regulars being more happy.''
That's an interesting analogy, but were not just paying for our own drinks, we're buying rounds for Spain and Greece too.
I think the Eurocrats know this too. Think of the astonishing amount of patronage they have bought with the half a trillion pounds we've paid since joining.
Mr. Taffys, have we been calling the tune recently?
The EU is Germany's show.
Edited extra bit: your view is what ought to be right, and what lots of people will think instinctively, so I do think it'll have an impact on voting (helpful for Remain). I don't think it reflects reality, however.
The answer would depend slightly on the relationship we have with the EU; for example Switzerland appears to pay very little, but allows the EU to collect customs tariffs on its behalf (which quite significantly increases the amount). IIRC, if we were to pay the same proportion of GDP that the Norwegians do, it would come to about 5bn, against the net 10bn and gross 20bn we pay today.
German police hunt for 'seven Iraqi suicide bombers who planned to blow themselves up in Munich train stations'
French, US intelligence agencies warned Germany of suicide bomb attacks Their report identified seven Iraqis living in Munich as potential attackers Two Munich stations evacuated after warnings of 'serious, imminent threat' Soldiers on the streets of Paris, extra police in London, Madrid and Istanbul
If we assume the EU has to make up a 5bn shortfall, the answer is that Germany would probably pay 1.5bn more, the other rich countries (Austria, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium) would probably stump up 2bn between them, and then recipients (mostly Eastern Europe and Greece) would have to suffer a reduction in transfers of c. 1.5bn.
The numbers aren't that massive in the general scheme of things - certainly not compared to (for example) the size of the hole in Greece's balance sheet.
Dubai fire update: It appears to be still smouldering this morning, but by most reports there were few casualties. The authorities will be aware that a coverup won't work when most of the occupants were Arabs and Westeners. (snip) Quote of the night, from the local Gulf News live blog: [Apart from the hotel and the mall a couple of hundred metres away being evacuated] "Other areas further from the fire are unaffected and people are still lined up for the event. All gazes were averted from the burning hotel"
Thanks for that, very interesting. It looks as though they got lucky.
Do you have any comment on why there are so many large-scale fires on tall buildings over there?
So far it seems that people got very lucky, there's photos this morning showing it still very much smouldering, so it could be that internal damage is more severe than I first thought. I can imagine that every person staying there was holding a party given the view and occasion, so maybe 400 apartments each with a dozen people in, if it turns out that everyone got out that's quite remarkable.
I'm only aware of three big fires here of occupied rather than under construction towers. Tamweel Tower in 2013, the appropriately named The Torch about six months ago, and this one. The first was apparently caused by a barbecue on a balcony, the second by a discarded cigarette or candle, again on a balcony.
The issue is the external cladding of the buildings being less than fireproof, in the last couple of years they've updated the building codes to meet Western standards for cladding but there's an awful lot of towers built to the old standard. Internally they all have modern sprinkler systems connected to mains water, and with wet and dry riser inlets, firewalled stairwells etc. Every apartment building has lots of warnings about barbecues and cigarettes, they've banned sale of gas canisters in supermarkets so they are delivery-only and apartment block security stop them getting in.
The fire yesterday is likely to be caused by something like a candle or cigarette setting fire to a tablecloth on a restaurant terrace. There will be a public investigation due to the profile of the incident, the top leaders are aware of the need to maintain confidence in the place rather than try and hush up something that everyone's talking about.
If we assume the EU has to make up a 5bn shortfall, the answer is that Germany would probably pay 1.5bn more, the other rich countries (Austria, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium) would probably stump up 2bn between them, and then recipients (mostly Eastern Europe and Greece) would have to suffer a reduction in transfers of c. 1.5bn.
The numbers aren't that massive in the general scheme of things - certainly not compared to (for example) the size of the hole in Greece's balance sheet.
Here's a chart of contributions and recipients from the EU. The Netherlands is so high because of the Common External Tariff and the important of Rotterdam as a container port.
So far it seems that people got very lucky, there's photos this morning showing it still very much smouldering, so it could be that internal damage is more severe than I first thought.
Everything looks external. The wayward side does not look touched. I am not an architect but I would assume that there was an internal firewall that allowed four fire-crews to successfully evacuate.
If the injury-figures are correct then hats-off: Smoke damage is probably the greatest cost and not the flames. I wonder is trellises and such-like were the underlying causes...? *
* I correctly identified the burst fuel-line on the Air-France Concorde disaster whilst the Frogs were blaming Roll-Royce. Some people never learn....
Here's a chart of contributions and recipients from the EU. The Netherlands is so high because of the Common External Tariff and the important of Rotterdam as a container port.
Some random - not predictions, but possible things to watch - in 2016 from outside the obvious:
1) The Pakistan tour of England. There are very strong hints that Pakistan will try to select Mohammed Amir, over the objections of the captain and vice-captain. But will he get a visa? Will there be an international incident and the tour even fail to go ahead? Is there a risk Misbah-ul-Haq will resign, retire and denounce the PCB? And if so, what would the impact on the already turbulent politics of Pakistan be?
2) The French presidential primaries. It seems likely that Marine Le Pen will be unopposed for the Frente Nationale, but there could be bruising clashes for the two main parties. If a lot of mud gets slung around, the odds on Le Pen making the run off will surely tighten even further. Too much, and there must be a real risk she will get the Elysée in 2017.
3) Australia. In 2007, John Howard had been in power for 11 years. They have now had no fewer than five Prime Ministers since then: Kevin Rudd (twice) Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull. Indeed, it should be noted that just since 2012 they have had an astonishing four different prime ministers (in context, we've had that many since 1990 - to get five, you go back to 1979). Could 2016 bring more chaos or will Turnbull finally pull together some fragile stability?
4) Zimbabwe. Robert Mugabe is now 91 and has allegedly had significant health problems. Could 2016 finally mark the end of his 36 year rule? And if so, what is the likely outcome for Zimbabwe, still a crucial player in Africa? A military dictatorship and a wave of trouble that destabilises South Africa and Namibia should not be ruled out.
5) OK, we all know about America's presidential race. It's chaos. One place to keep an eye on might be the big party conventions. If Hilary does something even crazier than usual, or Trump wins the primaries, it's not quite out of the question that the party machines might attempt a coup a la 1968 when the Democrats stitched up the nomination for Hubert Humphrey ahead of the less than perfectly balanced Eugene McCarthy.
I'm not going to make predictions. I proved how bad I was at those on the 6th August where at 10.30 I said Alistair Cook was brave to put the opposition in as Australia would definitely make a big score. At 12.33, I had to admit this had not quite gone as I expected, which must surely have been the quickest and most brilliantly wrong mistake of all 2015. But those are potential places to watch in 2016.
No problem. I was drinking with a few construction peeps last night so got a good briefing from them. I also used to live 30 floors up a 40 floor building and work 22 floors up another, became acutely aware of the risks of fire and the need to react quickly. I moved to a shorter block after getting fed up with the almost weekly 5am fire alarms as some bugger burned their breakfast, getting down 60 flights of stairs with a hangover is no fun!
Here's a chart of contributions and recipients from the EU. The Netherlands is so high because of the Common External Tariff and the important of Rotterdam as a container port.
An interesting chart. Seems quite reasonable to me!
Here's a chart of contributions and recipients from the EU. The Netherlands is so high because of the Common External Tariff and the important of Rotterdam as a container port.
An interesting chart. Seems quite reasonable to me!
Do you have a similar chart weighted per capita?
I think you need to do excluding the CET figures, which requires quite a bit of work...
1) The Pakistan tour of England. There are very strong hints that Pakistan will try to select Mohammed Amir, over the objections of the captain and vice-captain. But will he get a visa? Will there be an international incident and the tour even fail to go ahead? Is there a risk Misbah-ul-Haq will resign, retire and denounce the PCB? And if so, what would the impact on the already turbulent politics of Pakistan be?
Mohammad Amir named in Pakistan limited-overs squad for tour of New Zealand following end of five-year ban for spot-fixing
South Africa bowler Dale Steyn will miss the 2nd Test against England in Cape Town with a shoulder injury
No surprise there, I doubt he will play any further part in the series, and I am not sure how the quota system affects SA selection in this case.. Anyone know?
South Africa bowler Dale Steyn will miss the 2nd Test against England in Cape Town with a shoulder injury
No surprise there, I doubt he will play any further part in the series, and I am not sure how the quota system affects SA selection in this case.. Anyone know?
As long as they do not drop a black player for a white one, they're OK. So with Steyn sitting out and in all likelihood a non-white bowler coming in, they could actually drop the hapless Duminy for Quinton de Kock, which would strengthen the batting by adding another top-quality batsman and relieving the pressure on de Villiers.
A good analysis is here, below the second picture:
1) The Pakistan tour of England. There are very strong hints that Pakistan will try to select Mohammed Amir, over the objections of the captain and vice-captain. But will he get a visa? Will there be an international incident and the tour even fail to go ahead? Is there a risk Misbah-ul-Haq will resign, retire and denounce the PCB? And if so, what would the impact on the already turbulent politics of Pakistan be?
Mohammad Amir named in Pakistan limited-overs squad for tour of New Zealand following end of five-year ban for spot-fixing
When Pakistan played England here a couple of months ago, I stuck to watching it rather than betting on it. Betting on Pakistan cricket matches is unfortunately still a mug's game. Pakistan cricket really need to get a national 20-man squad together and pay them each $100k a year, to keep them out of the reaches of the gambling syndicates.
1) The Pakistan tour of England. There are very strong hints that Pakistan will try to select Mohammed Amir, over the objections of the captain and vice-captain. But will he get a visa? Will there be an international incident and the tour even fail to go ahead? Is there a risk Misbah-ul-Haq will resign, retire and denounce the PCB? And if so, what would the impact on the already turbulent politics of Pakistan be?
Mohammad Amir named in Pakistan limited-overs squad for tour of New Zealand following end of five-year ban for spot-fixing
He didn't serve a prison sentence in New Zealand - he did here. That's normally sufficient grounds to refuse entry.
1) The Pakistan tour of England. There are very strong hints that Pakistan will try to select Mohammed Amir, over the objections of the captain and vice-captain. But will he get a visa? Will there be an international incident and the tour even fail to go ahead? Is there a risk Misbah-ul-Haq will resign, retire and denounce the PCB? And if so, what would the impact on the already turbulent politics of Pakistan be?
Mohammad Amir named in Pakistan limited-overs squad for tour of New Zealand following end of five-year ban for spot-fixing
When Pakistan played England here a couple of months ago, I stuck to watching it rather than betting on it. Betting on Pakistan cricket matches is unfortunately still a mug's game. Pakistan cricket really need to get a national 20-man squad together and pay them each $100k a year, to keep them out of the reaches of the gambling syndicates.
I am not sure that would solve the issue. IPL was bent too and they are on big money.
Dr. Foxinsox, I think the constitutional issue only arises if Scotland (the only bit that's recently been polled on independence) made the difference. If England had a 30,000 Leave majority but Wales/Northern Ireland were 200,000 in favour of Remain, what Scotland does [barring an inexplicable Leave majority] doesn't affect things in a constitutional sense.
If the UK ex-Scotland has a 100,000 Leave majority, and Scotland has a 150,000 Remain majority, that may provoke some consternation.
I think every bit save England is guaranteed to be for Remain, and England will likely go that way too, albeit by a lower percentage.
MD, hopefully that is how it pans out , would be a hoot. Given it is the UK is voting though it would be tough luck.
My main prediction for 2016 is that, for all the Tory hubris about how supposedly popular the government is, the Tories' poll ratings will be down to close to 30% by the end of the year. Whether that lost support goes to Labour, or rather to UKIP or (less likely) the Lib Dems, is another question though.
More likely to be over 40%
If you say so.
I see no reason to think labour will improve while they are in a deatructive civil war that will take years to resolve and I do not get pleasure in that as the goverment needs a cohesive opposition
The Tories slumping does not necessarily mean Labour improving, as the mid-term of the last parliament showed.
Yes. I think we could see that again. People disliking the Tories, utterly unimpressed with Labour, they'll turn to whatever mid-term protest vehicle suits their taste.
The same thing happened in 2013-15. Unhappy Conservatives switched to UKIP, not Labour, but on the day, many of them switched back. I can't see the same group of voters switching to a Corbyn-led Labour Party.
''I think that the number of hardcore Leavers outnumber the hardcore Remains, and therefore turnout will be important.''
I suspect the number of hardcord 'leave and turn our backs on Europe' brigade isn't that big. Most are in between outright leave and in on these terms.
Dave's deal won;t be enough, but I suspect more will be offered as the polls remain resolutely leave as we head for the vote.
The voters will get the deal that Dave can't - or von't
That's a very interesting point: a sort of Scottish type situation where the goodies get pilled on as we get closer and closer to polling day.
(And one which leads to UKIPper answering for "remain" if they are polled to try to prevent to flow of goodies, while others claim "out" to keep 'em coming.)
Robert, unfortunately it is only hypothetical goodies the Tories give out , they vapourise once the stupid and greedy have been conned. There is a severe short supply of any goodies up here, too much pooling and not sharing going on as ever.
I just heard Rob Bryant give a fantastic analogy of Cameron vs Corbyn....
Cameron looks and sounds like somebody who would confidently and competently run a big branch of Foxton's. Corbyn looks and sounds like somebody who would struggle to run a branch of Gregg's.
Mohammad Amir was very young when he fell from grace. He deserves a second chance.
I would be interested to know if Anderson, Cook and particularly Broad - whose greatest achievement in the Test arena, a fabulous 169 against arguably the world's best seam attack, was completely overshadowed by the revelation that the said attack was bowling no-balls to order - feel that way.
I know that quite a number of top cricketers felt that only a lifetime ban, to show how seriously cricket took the cancer of spot-fixing, would meet the case.
The only reason I can think of for leniency - and it is a tenuous one - is that it was set up by a man who did not actually bet on the no-balls in question. But since I have always thought that Mazher Mahmood should have been prosecuted alongside them, that isn't really much of an argument.
On the predictions, I think 3 is debatable. UKIP have a track record of failing to convert polling shares into seats. That said, their main opposition this time is Welsh Labour, when UK Labour is led by Corbyn.
The suggested Leave percentage is more or less in line with my own view. I think Remain will win by a substantial margin.
Point 10's a bit of a soft point. Nobody's suggested the Conservatives splitting. Despite the sound reasons for it, not many are even suggesting Labour splitting, and they're led by an unreconstructed 1980s Communist sympathiser, the sort of buffoon who isn't happy about suicide bombers being shot dead.
The London and Welsh Assemblies have a significant number elected by PR. UKIP should therefore be able make it into both. I'd expect 6-8 Welsh seats, and 2-3 London seats.
Oliver may be the number one name for boys in the country as a whole, but for Telegraph readers it seems that Arthur is king.
Figures compiled from births announcements in the Telegraph over the course of 2015 showed that Arthur rose from the 9th most popular boy’s name in 2014 to the top spot last year, with Thomas, George, Edward and Henry – last year’s No1 – completing the top five.
For girls, Beatrice rose from fifth in 2014 to first in 2015, followed by Florence, Sophie, Eleanor and Rose. Amelia, the most popular girl’s name in national statistics, was only the 11th most popular with Telegraph readers.
Shadsy has bands up for remain and I think the 60-65% band at 8/1 is good value.
The odds seem weighted to it being close, but the polls are pretty poor and infested with cyber-kippers and do not deserve much weight. I think that there is value at both extremes of Shadsys bands.
The consensus at the GE was for a hung parliament, and the money to be made was at the extreme positions. I bet heavily on the Lab 226-250 band on the basis of Jacks ARSE. I got slightly twitchy as the night wore on that they wouldnt make 226!
Shadsy also has Remain/Leave by home nation. He clearly expects a strong remain vote everywhere but much tighter in England. England for Leave; the rest for Remain would make for a constitutional crisis, but I think England will dodge that by going for Remain too.
I think if you're confident of a strong Remain vote then I say go for it. As you say, there's a tendency to expect these votes to be close.
On the different countries, I don't think there would be a crisis if England votes to leave and the others don't. Ultimately they are just regions of the UK and my vote in England is worth the same as vote by someone in Dundee. I actually expect there to be little difference between England and Wales.
The tendency is indeed to expect these votes to be close. The Sindyref being a classical example. The fanaticism of the Leavers/Yes is one aspect, but the media of all sorts likes to depict a close race. I vaguely recall that even the AV one was billed that way.
No expert but I believe it will be big majority for REMAIN. However it appears most of the angst is in England and I hav eno idea what people think there apart from opinions here. My guess is most ordinary people will vote to stay.
New year resolutions include being less grumpy. We shall see how long that lasts.
Alastair's predictions are brave but I largely agree with the important ones. I think the SNP will retain their majority in Holyrood, almost by default as their main challengers in most of Scotland fall away. I suspect there will be sufficient wreckage left of the once mighty SLAB to hold off the Conservatives but it will be close. The Tories just might be the only Scottish party to actually gain seats but it is from a very low base.
Like Alastair I think that Khan will win in London. Zac strikes me as seriously overrated with very little of Boris' charm.
And I agree that the referendum on the EU will be this year and that Remain will win fairly comfortably, certainly a lot more comfortably than the polls are currently indicating. Oh well, can't be on the winning side all the time. Being a Man U fan has taught me that.
The London and Welsh Assemblies have a significant number elected by PR. UKIP should therefore be able make it into both. I'd expect 6-8 Welsh seats, and 2-3 London seats.
You expect them to win a third of the Welsh list seats? I think you could get good odds on that. Bearing in mind that Labour will almost certainly win 2 and the Liberal Democrats 1 in Mid Wales, Plaid Cymru taking the other, and it seems eminently possible that Labour, the Conservatives and Plaid will lock out North Wales again given the way their votes fall, that leaves just the 12 seats in the South Wales region for UKIP to chase.
Their best chance would likely be South Wales East, but if they pick up 2 seats there they've had a really good night (the Conservatives and Plaid will surely take at least 1 each, and I wouldn't be surprised if they both took 2 again - for that not to happen, Plaid would probably have to take a constituency seat and in that area under Corbyn that's not likely). In Cardiff they might grab one if the Liberal Democrat vote collapses entirely and they lose their list seat, possibly also one in Swansea to bring the total to 4 under very best case scenario.
Shadsy has bands up for remain and I think the 60-65% band at 8/1 is good value.
The odds seem weighted to it being close, but the polls are pretty poor and infested with cyber-kippers and do not deserve much weight. I think that there is value at both extremes of Shadsys bands.
The consensus at the GE was for a hung parliament, and the money to be made was at the extreme positions. I bet heavily on the Lab 226-250 band on the basis of Jacks ARSE. I got slightly twitchy as the night wore on that they wouldnt make 226!
Shadsy also has Remain/Leave by home nation. He clearly expects a strong remain vote everywhere but much tighter in England. England for Leave; the rest for Remain would make for a constitutional crisis, but I think England will dodge that by going for Remain too.
I think if you're confident of a strong Remain vote then I say go for it. As you say, there's a tendency to expect these votes to be close.
On the different countries, I don't think there would be a crisis if England votes to leave and the others don't. Ultimately they are just regions of the UK and my vote in England is worth the same as vote by someone in Dundee. I actually expect there to be little difference between England and Wales.
The tendency is indeed to expect these votes to be close. The Sindyref being a classical example. The fanaticism of the Leavers/Yes is one aspect, but the media of all sorts likes to depict a close race. I vaguely recall that even the AV one was billed that way.
No expert but I believe it will be big majority for REMAIN. However it appears most of the angst is in England and I hav eno idea what people think there apart from opinions here. My guess is most ordinary people will vote to stay.
Mr. Taffys, have we been calling the tune recently?
The EU is Germany's show.
Edited extra bit: your view is what ought to be right, and what lots of people will think instinctively, so I do think it'll have an impact on voting (helpful for Remain). I don't think it reflects reality, however.
The answer would depend slightly on the relationship we have with the EU; for example Switzerland appears to pay very little, but allows the EU to collect customs tariffs on its behalf (which quite significantly increases the amount). IIRC, if we were to pay the same proportion of GDP that the Norwegians do, it would come to about 5bn, against the net 10bn and gross 20bn we pay today.
As you imply the money has a part to play but it is not a significant determinant, certainly not in the EU counties running round like headless chickens anxious to conclude a 'trade deal' with us. The recent terror alert in Germany follows not simply US intelligence (which is shared with us anyway and vice versa) but also intelligence briefings for Merkle direct from our secret services. My own view is that Germany sees the need for good relations with the UK it also sees the need for reform. I think the issue of immigrant benefits will be resolved. The important negotiation points will be around the Eurozone and our voting rights and financial services sector.
Shadsy has bands up for remain and I think the 60-65% band at 8/1 is good value.
The odds seem weighted to it being close, but the polls are pretty poor and infested with cyber-kippers and do not deserve much weight. I think that there is value at both extremes of Shadsys bands.
The consensus at the GE was for a hung parliament, and the money to be made was at the extreme positions. I bet heavily on the Lab 226-250 band on the basis of Jacks ARSE. I got slightly twitchy as the night wore on that they wouldnt make 226!
Shadsy also has Remain/Leave by home nation. He clearly expects a strong remain vote everywhere but much tighter in England. England for Leave; the rest for Remain would make for a constitutional crisis, but I think England will dodge that by going for Remain too.
I think if you're confident of a strong Remain vote then I say go for it. As you say, there's a tendency to expect these votes to be close.
On the different countries, I don't think there would be a crisis if England votes to leave and the others don't. Ultimately they are just regions of the UK and my vote in England is worth the same as vote by someone in Dundee. I actually expect there to be little difference between England and Wales.
The tendency is indeed to expect these votes to be close. The Sindyref being a classical example. The fanaticism of the Leavers/Yes is one aspect, but the media of all sorts likes to depict a close race. I vaguely recall that even the AV one was billed that way.
No expert but I believe it will be big majority for REMAIN. However it appears most of the angst is in England and I hav eno idea what people think there apart from opinions here. My guess is most ordinary people will vote to stay.
Had lunch with a fervent Remain person this weekend; he put it well, when quizzed on (what I had thought) the key issue of EU immigration.
His belief was that no one for a minute thinks that all the Poles, Romanians, etc actually want to settle here - they are just taking the opportunity of earning some money. They don't want to change our society but to integrate and work.
Hence the repeated Cons "well we have cut down non-EU immigration" becomes more powerful.
I'm not sure he is 100% correct (who is?!) but that would be the nub of the issue for many waverers. If they can be persuaded to adopt the mindset of "they don't want to change us/outlaw morris dancing/force us to worship Polish sausage" then that would be a strong boost for Remain.
Equally, if Angela Merke's 1m currently estimated non-EU immigrants become potential EU immigrants...then that would be Leave's best shot.
Shadsy has bands up for remain and I think the 60-65% band at 8/1 is good value.
The odds seem weighted to it being close, but the polls are pretty poor and infested with cyber-kippers and do not deserve much weight. I think that there is value at both extremes of Shadsys bands.
The consensus at the GE was for a hung parliament, and the money to be made was at the extreme positions. I bet heavily on the Lab 226-250 band on the basis of Jacks ARSE. I got slightly twitchy as the night wore on that they wouldnt make 226!
Shadsy also has Remain/Leave by home nation. He clearly expects a strong remain vote everywhere but much tighter in England. England for Leave; the rest for Remain would make for a constitutional crisis, but I think England will dodge that by going for Remain too.
I think if you're confident of a strong Remain vote then I say go for it. As you say, there's a tendency to expect these votes to be close.
On the different countries, I don't think there would be a crisis if England votes to leave and the others don't. Ultimately they are just regions of the UK and my vote in England is worth the same as vote by someone in Dundee. I actually expect there to be little difference between England and Wales.
The tendency is indeed to expect these votes to be close. The Sindyref being a classical example. The fanaticism of the Leavers/Yes is one aspect, but the media of all sorts likes to depict a close race. I vaguely recall that even the AV one was billed that way.
No expert but I believe it will be big majority for REMAIN. However it appears most of the angst is in England and I hav eno idea what people think there apart from opinions here. My guess is most ordinary people will vote to stay.
Who are ordinary people?
To him...? Scottish.
Well the implication is that if you vote to Leave you're extraordinary.
At least he's honest enough to admit he has no idea what people in England think. But that confirms his ignorance, as if people from Moss Side, Tunbridge Wells and Whitechapel all see things the same way.
Had lunch with a fervent Remain person this weekend; he put it well, when quizzed on (what I had thought) the key issue of EU immigration.
His belief was that no one for a minute thinks that all the Poles, Romanians, etc actually want to settle here - they are just taking the opportunity of earning some money. They don't want to change our society but to integrate and work.
Hence the repeated Cons "well we have cut down non-EU immigration" becomes more powerful.
I'm not sure he is 100% correct (who is?!) but that would be the nub of the issue for many waverers. If they can be persuaded to adopt the mindset of "they don't want to change us/outlaw morris dancing/force us to worship Polish sausage" then that would be a strong boost for Remain.
Equally, if Angela Merke's 1m currently estimated non-EU immigrants become potential EU immigrants...then that would be Leave's best shot.
I know plenty of Eastern Europeans that have no intention of leaving the UK, why on earth would they. And the majority of them don't want to change society, so your friend is half right. What concerns people is the sheer volume of immigration of people from completely different cultures, Warsaw and Prague really aren't that different from our cities.
Btw back to the opening thread, I disagree about leadership change, I'd be surprised if Nigel Farage sees the year out. For several reasons UKIP are stuck in the mud, change appears inevitable.
Had lunch with a fervent Remain person this weekend; he put it well, when quizzed on (what I had thought) the key issue of EU immigration.
His belief was that no one for a minute thinks that all the Poles, Romanians, etc actually want to settle here - they are just taking the opportunity of earning some money. They don't want to change our society but to integrate and work.
Hence the repeated Cons "well we have cut down non-EU immigration" becomes more powerful.
I'm not sure he is 100% correct (who is?!) but that would be the nub of the issue for many waverers. If they can be persuaded to adopt the mindset of "they don't want to change us/outlaw morris dancing/force us to worship Polish sausage" then that would be a strong boost for Remain.
Equally, if Angela Merke's 1m currently estimated non-EU immigrants become potential EU immigrants...then that would be Leave's best shot.
I know plenty of Eastern Europeans that have no intention of leaving the UK, why on earth would they. And the majority of them don't want to change society, so your friend is half right. What concerns people is the sheer volume of immigration of people from completely different cultures, Warsaw and Prague really aren't that different from our cities.
I'd guess your friend won't want to address that.
I think once you get onto the territory of no one wanting to change anything then people will be both reassured and insulated from the more extreme claims of extreme Leavers.
It's a bit like all those, ahem, polls, which ask how you feel about an issue in general (v fussed) vs how it affects you personally (not fussed at all).
If 20% of people on the tube carriage are foreign and stand up for the elderly woman, who really cares that they are Polish?
As for sheer volume, well the UK has always been a population in at least some kind of flux.
Had lunch with a fervent Remain person this weekend; he put it well, when quizzed on (what I had thought) the key issue of EU immigration.
His belief was that no one for a minute thinks that all the Poles, Romanians, etc actually want to settle here - they are just taking the opportunity of earning some money. They don't want to change our society but to integrate and work.
Hence the repeated Cons "well we have cut down non-EU immigration" becomes more powerful.
I'm not sure he is 100% correct (who is?!) but that would be the nub of the issue for many waverers. If they can be persuaded to adopt the mindset of "they don't want to change us/outlaw morris dancing/force us to worship Polish sausage" then that would be a strong boost for Remain.
Equally, if Angela Merke's 1m currently estimated non-EU immigrants become potential EU immigrants...then that would be Leave's best shot.
I know plenty of Eastern Europeans that have no intention of leaving the UK, why on earth would they. And the majority of them don't want to change society, so your friend is half right. What concerns people is the sheer volume of immigration of people from completely different cultures, Warsaw and Prague really aren't that different from our cities.
The London and Welsh Assemblies have a significant number elected by PR. UKIP should therefore be able make it into both. I'd expect 6-8 Welsh seats, and 2-3 London seats.
You expect them to win a third of the Welsh list seats? I think you could get good odds on that. Bearing in mind that Labour will almost certainly win 2 and the Liberal Democrats 1 in Mid Wales, Plaid Cymru taking the other, and it seems eminently possible that Labour, the Conservatives and Plaid will lock out North Wales again given the way their votes fall, that leaves just the 12 seats in the South Wales region for UKIP to chase.
Their best chance would likely be South Wales East, but if they pick up 2 seats there they've had a really good night (the Conservatives and Plaid will surely take at least 1 each, and I wouldn't be surprised if they both took 2 again - for that not to happen, Plaid would probably have to take a constituency seat and in that area under Corbyn that's not likely). In Cardiff they might grab one if the Liberal Democrat vote collapses entirely and they lose their list seat, possibly also one in Swansea to bring the total to 4 under very best case scenario.
But 6? That's a bold call.
My understanding is that if you do sufficiently well at constituency level, in any given region, you don't qualify for any top-up seats. I'd expect the constituencies to split something like 26 Labour, 10 Conservative, 4 Plaid. I'd expect both Plaid and UKIP to poll about 13-17% across Wales at list level. The Lib Dems will probably get 6-7%. I don't think the UKIP vote will vary much by region.
In short, I'd expect UKIP and Plaid to get the lion's share of the list seats. Even with just 8% of the vote in 2011, the Lib Dems won 4 list seats. UKIP will do better than that, IMHO.
Not that I expect Kippers to bother learning anything about foreign aid ...
Oh my......... Jessop can't get the sour spite out of his mouth quick enough in 2016
I'm in a really good mood thanks.
It's a shame you didn't have a New Years Resolution of actually checking tweets before posting them on here. Your track record isn't exactly exemplary ...
Had lunch with a fervent Remain person this weekend; he put it well, when quizzed on (what I had thought) the key issue of EU immigration.
His belief was that no one for a minute thinks that all the Poles, Romanians, etc actually want to settle here - they are just taking the opportunity of earning some money. They don't want to change our society but to integrate and work.
Hence the repeated Cons "well we have cut down non-EU immigration" becomes more powerful.
I'm not sure he is 100% correct (who is?!) but that would be the nub of the issue for many waverers. If they can be persuaded to adopt the mindset of "they don't want to change us/outlaw morris dancing/force us to worship Polish sausage" then that would be a strong boost for Remain.
Equally, if Angela Merke's 1m currently estimated non-EU immigrants become potential EU immigrants...then that would be Leave's best shot.
I know plenty of Eastern Europeans that have no intention of leaving the UK, why on earth would they. And the majority of them don't want to change society, so your friend is half right. What concerns people is the sheer volume of immigration of people from completely different cultures, Warsaw and Prague really aren't that different from our cities.
I'd guess your friend won't want to address that.
I think once you get onto the territory of no one wanting to change anything then people will be both reassured and insulated from the more extreme claims of extreme Leavers.
It's a bit like all those, ahem, polls, which ask how you feel about an issue in general (v fussed) vs how it affects you personally (not fussed at all).
If 20% of people on the tube carriage are foreign and stand up for the elderly woman, who really cares that they are Polish?
As for sheer volume, well the UK has always been a population in at least some kind of flux.
"the UK has always been a population in at least some kind of flux."
Hmm. The biggest peacetime flow of new people into Britian in Known History, already changing our culture, and you pass it off like that?
You can argue whether it is a good or a bad thing, but to try and gloss over it is not credible.
Good on Alastair for sticking his neck out. I'm less convinced about both London and the local elections - British politics is moving quite quickly and it's hard to predict the mood in May.
The obvious missing one is the USA. I'm coming to feel that Cruz will win on the GOP side - the establishment needs to compromise with its voters if it wants to avoid Trump, and that probably means Cruz as challenger to Trump rather than Rubio. It will certainly be one of those three. Clinton seems secure and I think will see off either Trump or Cruz, but not necessarily Rubio.
Thanks to Sandpit for his meticulous assessment from Dubai - much better than the casual journalism that we're getting from the MSM, and the sort of thing that makes PB so useful.
As for Munich, apparently it's a rumour from a single source, so hard at this stage to tell if it was right, wrong or a deliberate scare story. Pace Ms Phillips, I enjoyed Homeland too, but it's not a reliable guide to world affairs (e.g. if I recall correctly it mixed up Shia and Sunni Muslims). There's certainly a terrorist problem, but sufficiently infrequent that it's not really affecting attitudes that much. Angela Merkel is still doing pretty well domestically, with what we in Britain would see as MOE shifts in polling:
Not that I expect Kippers to bother learning anything about foreign aid ...
Oh my......... Jessop can't get the sour spite out of his mouth quick enough in 2016
Perhaps you can stop the sour spite of posting inflammatory and questionably racist posts about immigration.. Everyone knows what you think, so you can give it a rest eh..
Had lunch with a fervent Remain person this weekend; he put it well, when quizzed on (what I had thought) the key issue of EU immigration.
His belief was that no one for a minute thinks that all the Poles, Romanians, etc actually want to settle here - they are just taking the opportunity of earning some money. They don't want to change our society but to integrate and work.
Hence the repeated Cons "well we have cut down non-EU immigration" becomes more powerful.
I'm not sure he is 100% correct (who is?!) but that would be the nub of the issue for many waverers. If they can be persuaded to adopt the mindset of "they don't want to change us/outlaw morris dancing/force us to worship Polish sausage" then that would be a strong boost for Remain.
Equally, if Angela Merke's 1m currently estimated non-EU immigrants become potential EU immigrants...then that would be Leave's best shot.
I know plenty of Eastern Europeans that have no intention of leaving the UK, why on earth would they. And the majority of them don't want to change society, so your friend is half right. What concerns people is the sheer volume of immigration of people from completely different cultures, Warsaw and Prague really aren't that different from our cities.
I'm not sure I understand your point. Plenty of Poles have settled and integrated very happily, I had several interesting conversations with them while campaigning pre GE, culturally they are very similar to us. The recurring theme and one shared by Romanian friends of mine is that most problems are caused by the Roma, who are reviled over there. Look at the crime figures in London involving them.
This is where arguments from pro immigration people fall down, they state categorically that immigration is good without bothering to analyse which bits are and which aren't. Let's not be naive enough to believe that immigration is one big rump that must be treated as a single issue, it's far more nuanced. Of course to suggest that the Roma community are involved in crime is to invite howls of raaaaaccccisssst from the usual suspects.
Pretty reliable source: fire started external to the building on 20th floor ie on a balcony. Most fire damage is to the cladding but from the photos there's not much cladding left on one side of the building. There will be extensive smoke and water damage though. Lots of photos and videos in the link.
Had lunch with a fervent Remain person this weekend; he put it well, when quizzed on (what I had thought) the key issue of EU immigration.
His belief was that no one for a minute thinks that all the Poles, Romanians, etc actually want to settle here - they are just taking the opportunity of earning some money. They don't want to change our society but to integrate and work.
Hence the repeated Cons "well we have cut down non-EU immigration" becomes more powerful.
I'm not sure he is 100% correct (who is?!) but that would be the nub of the issue for many waverers. If they can be persuaded to adopt the mindset of "they don't want to change us/outlaw morris dancing/force us to worship Polish sausage" then that would be a strong boost for Remain.
Equally, if Angela Merke's 1m currently estimated non-EU immigrants become potential EU immigrants...then that would be Leave's best shot.
I know plenty of Eastern Europeans that have no intention of leaving the UK, why on earth would they. And the majority of them don't want to change society, so your friend is half right. What concerns people is the sheer volume of immigration of people from completely different cultures, Warsaw and Prague really aren't that different from our cities.
I'd guess your friend won't want to address that.
I think once you get onto the territory of no one wanting to change anything then people will be both reassured and insulated from the more extreme claims of extreme Leavers.
It's a bit like all those, ahem, polls, which ask how you feel about an issue in general (v fussed) vs how it affects you personally (not fussed at all).
If 20% of people on the tube carriage are foreign and stand up for the elderly woman, who really cares that they are Polish?
As for sheer volume, well the UK has always been a population in at least some kind of flux.
I'm really not sure of your point, I don't see or hear anybody complaining about Poles. And of course society is continually in a state of flux, plenty of people are concerned about the level of flux as well as the speed. To deny that is silly.
The EU referendum being called in September 2016 would be against the advice of the Electoral Commission. There would be an awful lot of accusations of rigging the referendum should it happen in September. The matter would certainly not be settled for a generation.
Had lunch with a fervent Remain person this weekend; he put it well, when quizzed on (what I had thought) the key issue of EU immigration.
His belief was that no one for a minute thinks that all the Poles, Romanians, etc actually want to settle here - they are just taking the opportunity of earning some money. They don't want to change our society but to integrate and work.
Hence the repeated Cons "well we have cut down non-EU immigration" becomes more powerful.
I'm not sure he is 100% correct (who is?!) but that would be the nub of the issue for many waverers. If they can be persuaded to adopt the mindset of "they don't want to change us/outlaw morris dancing/force us to worship Polish sausage" then that would be a strong boost for Remain.
Equally, if Angela Merke's 1m currently estimated non-EU immigrants become potential EU immigrants...then that would be Leave's best shot.
I know plenty of Eastern Europeans that have no intention of leaving the UK, why on earth would they. And the majority of them don't want to change society, so your friend is half right. What concerns people is the sheer volume of immigration of people from completely different cultures, Warsaw and Prague really aren't that different from our cities.
I'm not sure I understand your point. Plenty of Poles have settled and integrated very happily, I had several interesting conversations with them while campaigning pre GE, culturally they are very similar to us. The recurring theme and one shared by Romanian friends of mine is that most problems are caused by the Roma, who are reviled over there. Look at the crime figures in London involving them.
This is where arguments from pro immigration people fall down, they state categorically that immigration is good without bothering to analyse which bits are and which aren't. Let's not be naive enough to believe that immigration is one big rump that must be treated as a single issue, it's far more nuanced. Of course to suggest that the Roma community are involved in crime is to invite howls of raaaaaccccisssst from the usual suspects.
A few years ago, there was a lot of uncomfortable shifting in seats from the liberal metro elites when CH4 collected data in terms of unemployment, educational attainment etc etc etc grouped by immigrant group. There were stark differences.
Mohammad Amir was very young when he fell from grace. He deserves a second chance.
International cricket really needs to clobber fixers if it is remain a credible sport. Fixing is utterly corrosive of the audience's enjoyment as they come to suspect any unusual result or turn of play is faked.
Shadsy has bands up for remain and I think the 60-65% band at 8/1 is good value.
The odds seem weighted to it being close, but the polls are pretty poor and infested with cyber-kippers and do not deserve much weight. I think that there is value at both extremes of Shadsys bands.
The consensus at the GE was for a hung parliament, and the money to be made was at the extreme positions. I bet heavily on the Lab 226-250 band on the basis of Jacks ARSE. I got slightly twitchy as the night wore on that they wouldnt make 226!
Shadsy also has Remain/Leave by home nation. He clearly expects a strong remain vote everywhere but much tighter in England. England for Leave; the rest for Remain would make for a constitutional crisis, but I think England will dodge that by going for Remain too.
I think if you're confident of a strong Remain vote then I say go for it. As you say, there's a tendency to expect these votes to be close.
On the different countries, I don't think there would be a crisis if England votes to leave and the others don't. Ultimately they are just regions of the UK and my vote in England is worth the same as vote by someone in Dundee. I actually expect there to be little difference between England and Wales.
The tendency is indeed to expect these votes to be close. The Sindyref being a classical example. The fanaticism of the Leavers/Yes is one aspect, but the media of all sorts likes to depict a close race. I vaguely recall that even the AV one was billed that way.
No expert but I believe it will be big majority for REMAIN. However it appears most of the angst is in England and I hav eno idea what people think there apart from opinions here. My guess is most ordinary people will vote to stay.
Who are ordinary people?
To him...? Scottish.
Well the implication is that if you vote to Leave you're extraordinary.
At least he's honest enough to admit he has no idea what people in England think. But that confirms his ignorance, as if people from Moss Side, Tunbridge Wells and Whitechapel all see things the same way.
Funny, you seemed to think 99% people from Moss Side, Tunbridge Wells and Whitechapel see climate change in exactly the same way. I suppose, for reasons that escape me, that's different though.
The EU referendum being called in September 2016 would be against the advice of the Electoral Commission. There would be an awful lot of accusations of rigging the referendum should it happen in September. The matter would certainly not be settled for a generation.
Had lunch with a fervent Remain person this weekend; he put it well, when quizzed on (what I had thought) the key issue of EU immigration.
His belief was that no one for a minute thinks that all the Poles, Romanians, etc actually want to settle here - they are just taking the opportunity of earning some money. They don't want to change our society but to integrate and work.
Hence the repeated Cons "well we have cut down non-EU immigration" becomes more powerful.
I'm not sure he is 100% correct (who is?!) but that would be the nub of the issue for many waverers. If they can be persuaded to adopt the mindset of "they don't want to change us/outlaw morris dancing/force us to worship Polish sausage" then that would be a strong boost for Remain.
Equally, if Angela Merke's 1m currently estimated non-EU immigrants become potential EU immigrants...then that would be Leave's best shot.
I know plenty of Eastern Europeans that have no intention of leaving the UK, why on earth would they. And the majority of them don't want to change society, so your friend is half right. What concerns people is the sheer volume of immigration of people from completely different cultures, Warsaw and Prague really aren't that different from our cities.
I'd guess your friend won't want to address that.
I think once you get onto the territory of no one wanting to change anything then people will be both reassured and insulated from the more extreme claims of extreme Leavers.
It's a bit like all those, ahem, polls, which ask how you feel about an issue in general (v fussed) vs how it affects you personally (not fussed at all).
If 20% of people on the tube carriage are foreign and stand up for the elderly woman, who really cares that they are Polish?
As for sheer volume, well the UK has always been a population in at least some kind of flux.
"the UK has always been a population in at least some kind of flux."
Hmm. The biggest peacetime flow of new people into Britian in Known History, already changing our culture, and you pass it off like that?
You can argue whether it is a good or a bad thing, but to try and gloss over it is not credible.
I was specifically not glossing it over...
It is a big influx but I don't see how our culture has changed. There are more people from the EU but does it affect me? OK perhaps I'm not a plumber or barista but the fact that there are a lot of EU immigrants in the UK doesn't affect me.
Shadsy has bands up for remain and I think the 60-65% band at 8/1 is good value.
The odds seem weighted to it being close, but the polls are pretty poor and infested with cyber-kippers and do not deserve much weight. I think that there is value at both extremes of Shadsys bands.
The consensus at the GE was for a hung parliament, and the money to be made was at the extreme positions. I bet heavily on the Lab 226-250 band on the basis of Jacks ARSE. I got slightly twitchy as the night wore on that they wouldnt make 226!
Shadsy also has Remain/Leave by home nation. He clearly expects a strong remain vote everywhere but much tighter in England. England for Leave; the rest for Remain would make for a constitutional crisis, but I think England will dodge that by going for Remain too.
I think if you're confident of a strong Remain vote then I say go for it. As you say, there's a tendency to expect these votes to be close.
On the different countries, I don't think there would be a crisis if England votes to leave and the others don't. Ultimately they are just regions of the UK and my vote in England is worth the same as vote by someone in Dundee. I actually expect there to be little difference between England and Wales.
The tendency is indeed to expect these votes to be close. The Sindyref being a classical example. The fanaticism of the Leavers/Yes is one aspect, but the media of all sorts likes to depict a close race. I vaguely recall that even the AV one was billed that way.
No expert but I believe it will be big majority for REMAIN. However it appears most of the angst is in England and I hav eno idea what people think there apart from opinions here. My guess is most ordinary people will vote to stay.
Who are ordinary people?
To him...? Scottish.
Well the implication is that if you vote to Leave you're extraordinary.
At least he's honest enough to admit he has no idea what people in England think. But that confirms his ignorance, as if people from Moss Side, Tunbridge Wells and Whitechapel all see things the same way.
Funny, you seemed to think 99% people from Moss Side, Tunbridge Wells and Whitechapel see climate change in exactly the same way. I suppose, for reasons that escape me, that's different though.
I'll go further than that 99% of the UK population think the same about climate change in that they're not prepared to do a thing about it, even if it does exist.
Wring your hands and post a picture of a polar bear on a glacier if you like, but stay in your centrally heated home and drive to work at your air conditioned office.
There's one born every day, the biggest mugs are those who think we can do anything about the climate. Google China.
Had lunch with a fervent Remain person this weekend; he put it well, when quizzed on (what I had thought) the key issue of EU immigration.
His belief was that no one for a minute thinks that all the Poles, Romanians, etc actually want to settle here - they are just taking the opportunity of earning some money. They don't want to change our society but to integrate and work.
Hence the repeated Cons "well we have cut down non-EU immigration" becomes more powerful.
I'm not sure he is 100% correct (who is?!) but that would be the nub of the issue for many waverers. If they can be persuaded to adopt the mindset of "they don't want to change us/outlaw morris dancing/force us to worship Polish sausage" then that would be a strong boost for Remain.
Equally, if Angela Merke's 1m currently estimated non-EU immigrants become potential EU immigrants...then that would be Leave's best shot.
I know plenty of Eastern Europeans that have no intention of leaving the UK, why on earth would they. And the majority of them don't want to change society, so your friend is half right. What concerns people is the sheer volume of immigration of people from completely different cultures, Warsaw and Prague really aren't that different from our cities.
I'm not sure I understand your point. Plenty of Poles have settled and integrated very happily, I had several interesting conversations with them while campaigning pre GE, culturally they are very similar to us. The recurring theme and one shared by Romanian friends of mine is that most problems are caused by the Roma, who are reviled over there. Look at the crime figures in London involving them.
This is where arguments from pro immigration people fall down, they state categorically that immigration is good without bothering to analyse which bits are and which aren't. Let's not be naive enough to believe that immigration is one big rump that must be treated as a single issue, it's far more nuanced. Of course to suggest that the Roma community are involved in crime is to invite howls of raaaaaccccisssst from the usual suspects.
A few years ago, there was a lot of uncomfortable shifting in seats from the liberal metro elites when CH4 collected data in terms of unemployment, educational attainment etc etc etc grouped by immigrant group. There were stark differences.
Everybody gets uncomfortable when their prejudices are exposed.
Comments
''I think that the number of hardcore Leavers outnumber the hardcore Remains, and therefore turnout will be important.''
I suspect the number of hardcord 'leave and turn our backs on Europe' brigade isn't that big. Most are in between outright leave and in on these terms.
Dave's deal won;t be enough, but I suspect more will be offered as the polls remain resolutely leave as we head for the vote.
The voters will get the deal that Dave can't - or won't
* Quote system hung-over...?
(And one which leads to UKIPper answering for "remain" if they are polled to try to prevent to flow of goodies, while others claim "out" to keep 'em coming.)
The first dozen or so floors are a conventional hotel, the upper floors are hotel apartments popular with City workers and companies. There's approx 200 hotel rooms and 600 apartments. The top floor (63rd) is a bar (Neos) that would have been full of a couple of hundred people who have sore feet this morning! It's 305 metres tell, the same height roughly as the Shard in London. The Address Downtown is 500m from the Burj Khalifa, and it's fair to say that rooms facing the worlds tallest building would have been sold out months ago at rack rates, Being pretty much the best place possible to watch the midnight fireworks.
The fire appeared to start on a terrace around 10 floors up at 21:30, and spread up the outside of the building quite quickly.
The cladding is made of aluminium, old building codes here didn't mandate the same levels of fire retardance as in Europe or the US. The local building codes were changed three or four years ago following a similar fire in a residential block at the other end of town (Tamweel Tower).
The fire on the cladding looks worse than it is, most of the damage will be to the exterior of the building. Inside are modern sprinkler systems and most of the internal damage is probably from water rather than fire.
The fire alarms were apparently late to go off, as the mainly external fire didn't trigger smoke detectors inside the building.
It's unlikely the building is unsafe, I might head down there later and see how big is the exclusion zone around it. There's a huge mall (Dubai Mall) next door (50m away) that was also evacuated last night. There had been stories in the past few days of local coffee shops and fast food joints putting up a 1000dhm (£165) cover charge for seats on the terrace overlooking the fireworks!
There would have been some interesting high-level conversations about whether or not to go ahead with the fireworks at midnight, but on balance to cancel them would have caused problems with the estimated million-strong crowd that had gathered in the vicinity to watch. Same consideration as the Paris football match last month. I guess as long as the safety officers (fireworks team was from the US I think) were happy that they wouldn't make the fire worse then it was better for everyone to go ahead, although the local leaders would obviously have wanted things to go ahead for publicity reasons.
Quote of the night, from the local Gulf News live blog: [Apart from the hotel and the mall a couple of hundred metres away being evacuated] "Other areas further from the fire are unaffected and people are still lined up for the event. All gazes were averted from the burning hotel"
Yes that's my view. I guess voters aren't political nerds like us but they go on holidays, business trips etc and they can appreciate the general situation.
They probably figure Europe needs Britain to leave like a hole in the head, and that all these treaties and such are so much b8llocks that is ripped up when it suits.
Thus, if you are on leave be prepared to have the rug pulled out as Juncker crawls up Whitehall on his hands and knees on the eve of the vote.
Wales or Northern Ireland are unlikely to ask for independence (the finances don't stack up).
Other EU nations could quite easily leave [economically]. The EU throwing us sweeties will encourage other sceptic parties to promise votes to leave, knowing they'll get goodies thrown their way.
I think the Leavers overestimate their own influence.
@tlg86
I think the Constitutional crisis happens if the overall vote is for Leave but all the Home nations bar England vote Remain. The contrary where we Remain despite England voting Leave would be less constitutionally explosive, though probably significant.
I appreciate your point Mr Morris, but I think the EU nations mostly have a big reason to be in the EU that does not really apply to Britain. For Germany its domination, for France its Germany, and for the rest, its money or protection.
Anti-EU campaigners are claiming we've spent £503bn on membership fees so far. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4653205.ece
Do you have any comment on why there are so many large-scale fires on tall buildings over there?
This is the nub of it for me, and I suspect the voters. People instinctively know that he who pays the piper calls the tune.
The EU is Germany's show.
Edited extra bit: your view is what ought to be right, and what lots of people will think instinctively, so I do think it'll have an impact on voting (helpful for Remain). I don't think it reflects reality, however.
That's an interesting analogy, but were not just paying for our own drinks, we're buying rounds for Spain and Greece too.
I think the Eurocrats know this too. Think of the astonishing amount of patronage they have bought with the half a trillion pounds we've paid since joining.
Does anybody think that's money well spent?
100% agree, but I still don;t think British voters really want to leave. We pay for Europe a la carte. We should be able to have it.
If we did Leave, how would the EU make up the shortfall in funds?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_Princess#2006_fire
If we assume the EU has to make up a 5bn shortfall, the answer is that Germany would probably pay 1.5bn more, the other rich countries (Austria, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium) would probably stump up 2bn between them, and then recipients (mostly Eastern Europe and Greece) would have to suffer a reduction in transfers of c. 1.5bn.
The numbers aren't that massive in the general scheme of things - certainly not compared to (for example) the size of the hole in Greece's balance sheet.
May I wish all on PB a happy, healthy, prosperous 2016.
I'm only aware of three big fires here of occupied rather than under construction towers. Tamweel Tower in 2013, the appropriately named The Torch about six months ago, and this one. The first was apparently caused by a barbecue on a balcony, the second by a discarded cigarette or candle, again on a balcony.
The issue is the external cladding of the buildings being less than fireproof, in the last couple of years they've updated the building codes to meet Western standards for cladding but there's an awful lot of towers built to the old standard. Internally they all have modern sprinkler systems connected to mains water, and with wet and dry riser inlets, firewalled stairwells etc. Every apartment building has lots of warnings about barbecues and cigarettes, they've banned sale of gas canisters in supermarkets so they are delivery-only and apartment block security stop them getting in.
The fire yesterday is likely to be caused by something like a candle or cigarette setting fire to a tablecloth on a restaurant terrace. There will be a public investigation due to the profile of the incident, the top leaders are aware of the need to maintain confidence in the place rather than try and hush up something that everyone's talking about.
I hope that's the case - short term strong-arming or bribery isn't a good basis for working together.
If the injury-figures are correct then hats-off: Smoke damage is probably the greatest cost and not the flames. I wonder is trellises and such-like were the underlying causes...? *
* I correctly identified the burst fuel-line on the Air-France Concorde disaster whilst the Frogs were blaming Roll-Royce. Some people never learn....
It needs to be about control of laws and borders, and reducing house prices by slowing immigration.
Something that individuals can connect to and want.
1) The Pakistan tour of England. There are very strong hints that Pakistan will try to select Mohammed Amir, over the objections of the captain and vice-captain. But will he get a visa? Will there be an international incident and the tour even fail to go ahead? Is there a risk Misbah-ul-Haq will resign, retire and denounce the PCB? And if so, what would the impact on the already turbulent politics of Pakistan be?
2) The French presidential primaries. It seems likely that Marine Le Pen will be unopposed for the Frente Nationale, but there could be bruising clashes for the two main parties. If a lot of mud gets slung around, the odds on Le Pen making the run off will surely tighten even further. Too much, and there must be a real risk she will get the Elysée in 2017.
3) Australia. In 2007, John Howard had been in power for 11 years. They have now had no fewer than five Prime Ministers since then: Kevin Rudd (twice) Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull. Indeed, it should be noted that just since 2012 they have had an astonishing four different prime ministers (in context, we've had that many since 1990 - to get five, you go back to 1979). Could 2016 bring more chaos or will Turnbull finally pull together some fragile stability?
4) Zimbabwe. Robert Mugabe is now 91 and has allegedly had significant health problems. Could 2016 finally mark the end of his 36 year rule? And if so, what is the likely outcome for Zimbabwe, still a crucial player in Africa? A military dictatorship and a wave of trouble that destabilises South Africa and Namibia should not be ruled out.
5) OK, we all know about America's presidential race. It's chaos. One place to keep an eye on might be the big party conventions. If Hilary does something even crazier than usual, or Trump wins the primaries, it's not quite out of the question that the party machines might attempt a coup a la 1968 when the Democrats stitched up the nomination for Hubert Humphrey ahead of the less than perfectly balanced Eugene McCarthy.
I'm not going to make predictions. I proved how bad I was at those on the 6th August where at 10.30 I said Alistair Cook was brave to put the opposition in as Australia would definitely make a big score. At 12.33, I had to admit this had not quite gone as I expected, which must surely have been the quickest and most brilliantly wrong mistake of all 2015. But those are potential places to watch in 2016.
I also used to live 30 floors up a 40 floor building and work 22 floors up another, became acutely aware of the risks of fire and the need to react quickly. I moved to a shorter block after getting fed up with the almost weekly 5am fire alarms as some bugger burned their breakfast, getting down 60 flights of stairs with a hangover is no fun!
Do you have a similar chart weighted per capita?
Labour cronyism: chief whip Rosie Winterton recommended herself for New Year honour.
https://t.co/1hijtzuavK https://t.co/6TUBfDh2yv
Neither Oneself*, TSE, DavidL nor ydoethur will be proven as cricket experts. Fanatics; maybe: Experts; never....**
* Bring back "Bellie"!!!
** Crowd-funding for FATJUGS are available. Please following normal, agreed procedures....
Rather foolishly I have had a bet with a mate that I can do dry January.
Eek!
To avoid further pain, let's get the terrible puns out of the way early.
I'll be damed - a mis-speak about something Jeremy Corbyn said that the committee misunderstood.
She's whipped up a storm in a goblet.
There will be a lot of scarlet faces this morning, all rosie with embarrassment.
Corbyn will give her a whipping over this.
A good analysis is here, below the second picture:
http://www.espncricinfo.com/south-africa-v-england-2015-16/content/story/956359.html
Cameron looks and sounds like somebody who would confidently and competently run a big branch of Foxton's. Corbyn looks and sounds like somebody who would struggle to run a branch of Gregg's.
I know that quite a number of top cricketers felt that only a lifetime ban, to show how seriously cricket took the cancer of spot-fixing, would meet the case.
The only reason I can think of for leniency - and it is a tenuous one - is that it was set up by a man who did not actually bet on the no-balls in question. But since I have always thought that Mazher Mahmood should have been prosecuted alongside them, that isn't really much of an argument.
The temptation to back SA here is almost irresistible.
New year resolutions include being less grumpy. We shall see how long that lasts.
Alastair's predictions are brave but I largely agree with the important ones. I think the SNP will retain their majority in Holyrood, almost by default as their main challengers in most of Scotland fall away. I suspect there will be sufficient wreckage left of the once mighty SLAB to hold off the Conservatives but it will be close. The Tories just might be the only Scottish party to actually gain seats but it is from a very low base.
Like Alastair I think that Khan will win in London. Zac strikes me as seriously overrated with very little of Boris' charm.
And I agree that the referendum on the EU will be this year and that Remain will win fairly comfortably, certainly a lot more comfortably than the polls are currently indicating. Oh well, can't be on the winning side all the time. Being a Man U fan has taught me that.
Their best chance would likely be South Wales East, but if they pick up 2 seats there they've had a really good night (the Conservatives and Plaid will surely take at least 1 each, and I wouldn't be surprised if they both took 2 again - for that not to happen, Plaid would probably have to take a constituency seat and in that area under Corbyn that's not likely). In Cardiff they might grab one if the Liberal Democrat vote collapses entirely and they lose their list seat, possibly also one in Swansea to bring the total to 4 under very best case scenario.
But 6? That's a bold call.
Come on #LibDems, you know you want a cardboard @nick_clegg! Or maybe more than one. Eight in stock... https://t.co/0hEkIn3YeW
The recent terror alert in Germany follows not simply US intelligence (which is shared with us anyway and vice versa) but also intelligence briefings for Merkle direct from our secret services. My own view is that Germany sees the need for good relations with the UK it also sees the need for reform. I think the issue of immigrant benefits will be resolved. The important negotiation points will be around the Eurozone and our voting rights and financial services sector.
What happens next time he bowls a no ball, or is seen talking to an undesirable..
His belief was that no one for a minute thinks that all the Poles, Romanians, etc actually want to settle here - they are just taking the opportunity of earning some money. They don't want to change our society but to integrate and work.
Hence the repeated Cons "well we have cut down non-EU immigration" becomes more powerful.
I'm not sure he is 100% correct (who is?!) but that would be the nub of the issue for many waverers. If they can be persuaded to adopt the mindset of "they don't want to change us/outlaw morris dancing/force us to worship Polish sausage" then that would be a strong boost for Remain.
Equally, if Angela Merke's 1m currently estimated non-EU immigrants become potential EU immigrants...then that would be Leave's best shot.
At least he's honest enough to admit he has no idea what people in England think. But that confirms his ignorance, as if people from Moss Side, Tunbridge Wells and Whitechapel all see things the same way.
I'd guess your friend won't want to address that.
It's a bit like all those, ahem, polls, which ask how you feel about an issue in general (v fussed) vs how it affects you personally (not fussed at all).
If 20% of people on the tube carriage are foreign and stand up for the elderly woman, who really cares that they are Polish?
As for sheer volume, well the UK has always been a population in at least some kind of flux.
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG
In short, I'd expect UKIP and Plaid to get the lion's share of the list seats. Even with just 8% of the vote in 2011, the Lib Dems won 4 list seats. UKIP will do better than that, IMHO.
It's a shame you didn't have a New Years Resolution of actually checking tweets before posting them on here. Your track record isn't exactly exemplary ...
"the UK has always been a population in at least some kind of flux."
Hmm. The biggest peacetime flow of new people into Britian in Known History, already changing our culture, and you pass it off like that?
You can argue whether it is a good or a bad thing, but to try and gloss over it is not credible.
The obvious missing one is the USA. I'm coming to feel that Cruz will win on the GOP side - the establishment needs to compromise with its voters if it wants to avoid Trump, and that probably means Cruz as challenger to Trump rather than Rubio. It will certainly be one of those three. Clinton seems secure and I think will see off either Trump or Cruz, but not necessarily Rubio.
Thanks to Sandpit for his meticulous assessment from Dubai - much better than the casual journalism that we're getting from the MSM, and the sort of thing that makes PB so useful.
As for Munich, apparently it's a rumour from a single source, so hard at this stage to tell if it was right, wrong or a deliberate scare story. Pace Ms Phillips, I enjoyed Homeland too, but it's not a reliable guide to world affairs (e.g. if I recall correctly it mixed up Shia and Sunni Muslims). There's certainly a terrorist problem, but sufficiently infrequent that it's not really affecting attitudes that much. Angela Merkel is still doing pretty well domestically, with what we in Britain would see as MOE shifts in polling:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
This is where arguments from pro immigration people fall down, they state categorically that immigration is good without bothering to analyse which bits are and which aren't. Let's not be naive enough to believe that immigration is one big rump that must be treated as a single issue, it's far more nuanced. Of course to suggest that the Roma community are involved in crime is to invite howls of raaaaaccccisssst from the usual suspects.
The YF-17 is still better (as the F-18+) than the F-16. Didn't the Germans want to scrap Tiffies for F-16s under Schroeder...?
:FCz:
http://www.thenational.ae/uae/government/new-years-eve-blaze-at-the-address-downtown-dubai-put-out - local broadsheet paper, published in Abu Dhabi. Not written by the government's spin doctors but unlikely to be unthinkingly critical either.
It is a big influx but I don't see how our culture has changed. There are more people from the EU but does it affect me? OK perhaps I'm not a plumber or barista but the fact that there are a lot of EU immigrants in the UK doesn't affect me.
How has it affected you personally?
Shadsy has bands up for remain and I think the 60-65% band at 8/1 is good value.
The odds seem weighted to it being close, but the polls are pretty poor and infested with cyber-kippers and do not deserve much weight. I think that there is value at both extremes of Shadsys bands.
The consensus at the GE was for a hung parliament, and the money to be made was at the extreme positions. I bet heavily on the Lab 226-250 band on the basis of Jacks ARSE. I got slightly twitchy as the night wore on that they wouldnt make 226!
Shadsy also has Remain/Leave by home nation. He clearly expects a strong remain vote everywhere but much tighter in England. England for Leave; the rest for Remain would make for a constitutional crisis, but I think England will dodge that by going for Remain too.
I think if you're confident of a strong Remain vote then I say go for it. As you say, there's a tendency to expect these votes to be close.
On the different countries, I don't think there would be a crisis if England votes to leave and the others don't. Ultimately they are just regions of the UK and my vote in England is worth the same as vote by someone in Dundee. I actually expect there to be little difference between England and Wales.
The tendency is indeed to expect these votes to be close. The Sindyref being a classical example. The fanaticism of the Leavers/Yes is one aspect, but the media of all sorts likes to depict a close race. I vaguely recall that even the AV one was billed that way.
No expert but I believe it will be big majority for REMAIN. However it appears most of the angst is in England and I hav eno idea what people think there apart from opinions here. My guess is most ordinary people will vote to stay.
Who are ordinary people?
To him...? Scottish.
Well the implication is that if you vote to Leave you're extraordinary.
At least he's honest enough to admit he has no idea what people in England think. But that confirms his ignorance, as if people from Moss Side, Tunbridge Wells and Whitechapel all see things the same way.
Funny, you seemed to think 99% people from Moss Side, Tunbridge Wells and Whitechapel see climate change in exactly the same way. I suppose, for reasons that escape me, that's different though.
I'll go further than that 99% of the UK population think the same about climate change in that they're not prepared to do a thing about it, even if it does exist.
Wring your hands and post a picture of a polar bear on a glacier if you like, but stay in your centrally heated home and drive to work at your air conditioned office.
There's one born every day, the biggest mugs are those who think we can do anything about the climate. Google China.