I've been running a simulation based around the PP on 29%, and I get them on 120-125 seats, with almost half of their seats coming from them dominating the smaller provinces.
The interesting question is for places like Guadalajara, Avila and the like, who gets the third seat? I'd assumed it would be PSOE, but it might be Podemos.
Citizens polls very poorly in rural Spain, so they are lucky - in a way - not to get have too many wasted votes. If Podemos is third, but scoring 20% in rural provinces, then a large portion of their votes are going to go unrewarded.
Thanks, interesting. With the turnouts would have thought podemos has an excellent chance of coming 2nd. Seats must depend on the extent to which they can overhaul PSOE in the south.
The turnouts are pretty much as usual. Madrid, the Castilles and the Valencian provinces usually get the highest; the south, Catalonia and The Basque country the lowest. That is basically what is happening this time as well, it seems, though Catalonia looks to be up around 3% on last time, Andalucia down around 2%. I don't think that there is too much that can be read into any of those figures - except, perhaps, in Catalonia, where a higher turnout is almost certainly going to be very good for Podemos and Cs, as a lot of nationalists never vote in the Spanish elections.
Although, of course, that isn't going to make much difference to the seat shares - only the vote shares.
The simple fact is that we live in the present. All of us always; and we can look at some of our historical actions with some curiosity and wonder how the future will be. I guess how many Ancient Greeks thought sodomising young boys not quite right. If they did, they were probably in the minority. The horrors of ISIS are little more than outdated social mores that were commonplace in christianity until quite recently.
I think eating meat will be surpassed by issues of hygiene in the future. The way we farm and eat pigs is really gross. The filth that turkeys live in- and we are going to tuck into them for our festive treat.
Meat farming......... disease, excrement, antibiotics, steroids, slaughter.....it really is all quite disgusting. Most people, when faced with the brutal facts, find it all quite grim.
'You can have your weird moral objections to meat eating but they have no basis in fact'
There is as much point arguing with vegetarians as there is with Jehovah's Witnesses
I actually understand the idea future generations might look on us with disgust for eating meat, it crops up in Sci-Fi occasionally, but I cannot say I'm particularly bothered by what future generations will and won't find disgusting. As is often noted on here, there will be many things we consider normal now which will be frowned on in the future. And I'm misanthropic enough to find humanity unpardonable for doing those things now.
On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast
The only problem that Cruz has in Iowa presently is this one:
"The federal Renewable Fuel Standard, which sets the minimum amount of ethanol and other biofuels that must be included in the nation's gasoline supply, is supported by 61 percent of those planning to participate as Republicans in the first-in-the-nation caucuses on Feb. 1. The junior senator from Texas opposes the standard, a view shared by slightly more than one-third of Republicans surveyed. Cruz's position, which is drawing a sustained attack against him from a pro-ethanol group trying to influence the caucuses, could threaten his standing as the Republican front-runner in a state that's key to his potential path to the nomination. Iowa is the nation's top corn and ethanol producer."
Ethanol subsidies are very popular with farmers especially in Iowa, so that will put a limit to his support, although it's already large enough to win Iowa. Who knows, it may become an issue in January, that's why I'll wait a bit to be sure that Cruz is not another flavour of the month.
Arnold Vinick came out against ethanol subsidies and still got the nomination
Yes. That's a great argument apart from two minor points. Firstly, Arnold Vinick is fictional. Secondly, Arnold Vinick is fictional. Now I realize that's just one point but I thought it was so important it was worth repeating.
Speedy, thanks for putting the Spanish links up, was just about to post those!
What are people's gut feelings about the new government that will emerge?
PP minority govt (Rajoy still PM?) with conf/supply from Cuidadanos? Rivera has pointed to the Lib Dems as what can happen to junior coalition partners so doesn't seem keen to join one.
I think it will get very interesting if PP + C's is not a majority, depends what the numbers look like - would have thought a PP/PSOE grand coalition unlikely but these are uncharted waters for modern Spanish politics.
I've been running a simulation based around the PP on 29%, and I get them on 120-125 seats, with almost half of their seats coming from them dominating the smaller provinces.
The interesting question is for places like Guadalajara, Avila and the like, who gets the third seat? I'd assumed it would be PSOE, but it might be Podemos.
Citizens polls very poorly in rural Spain, so they are lucky - in a way - not to get have too many wasted votes. If Podemos is third, but scoring 20% in rural provinces, then a large portion of their votes are going to go unrewarded.
Thanks, interesting. With the turnouts would have thought podemos has an excellent chance of coming 2nd. Seats must depend on the extent to which they can overhaul PSOE in the south.
The turnouts are pretty much as usual. Madrid, the Castilles and the Valencian provinces usually get the highest; the south, Catalonia and The Basque country the lowest. That is basically what is happening this time as well, it seems, though Catalonia looks to be up around 3% on last time, Andalucia down around 2%. I don't think that there is too much that can be read into any of those figures - except, perhaps, in Catalonia, where a higher turnout is almost certainly going to be very good for Podemos and Cs, as a lot of nationalists never vote in the Spanish elections.
Kind of agree but there are an awful lot of people in the cities so increasing turnout there even if it's a couple of percentage points will have a disproportionate effect on national vote share and psoe & podemos have been virtually tied in national polls. Anyway, we'll know shortly. Ideal outcome for podemos probably a grand co-alition. I've read their manifesto and the last thing they want is power it seems to me.
On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast
The only problem that Cruz has in Iowa presently is this one:
"The federal Renewable Fuel Standard, which sets the minimum amount of ethanol and other biofuels that must be included in the nation's gasoline supply, is supported by 61 percent of those planning to participate as Republicans in the first-in-the-nation caucuses on Feb. 1. The junior senator from Texas opposes the standard, a view shared by slightly more than one-third of Republicans surveyed. Cruz's position, which is drawing a sustained attack against him from a pro-ethanol group trying to influence the caucuses, could threaten his standing as the Republican front-runner in a state that's key to his potential path to the nomination. Iowa is the nation's top corn and ethanol producer."
Ethanol subsidies are very popular with farmers especially in Iowa, so that will put a limit to his support, although it's already large enough to win Iowa. Who knows, it may become an issue in January, that's why I'll wait a bit to be sure that Cruz is not another flavour of the month.
Arnold Vinick came out against ethanol subsidies and still got the nomination
Yes. That's a great argument apart from two minor points. Firstly, Arnold Vinick is fictional. Secondly, Arnold Vinick is fictional. Now I realize that's just one point but I thought it was so important it was worth repeating.
You forgot a third point which HYUFD pointed at, Vinnick though fictional still lost the Iowa caucuses in fiction-land.
Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.
What is your solution to bovine TB?
Well, it has led to our survival and success to date, but I take the point that certain attributes can become destructuve. You're probably not a fan of that outlet that sells exotic meats, Kezie Foods, I imagine.
WTF, how is Reindeer more expensive than Waygu beef?
Because they aren't selling actual Kobe beef. Kobe beef does not make it out of Japan. Stuff labelled as Waygu is just expensively marked up regular beef, maybe a cross breed if you are lucky.
On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast
---------------------------------------
Cruz is indeed likely to win Iowa and Trump COULD win NH , but only because the establishment has not yet unified behind their candidate ; when they do it will be the end for Trump who has a low ceiling for votes ..I expect Trump to drop out of the race sometime in about March and then go back to his reality TV shows ....Trumpism is just a load of noise by low information voters ; he is in fact a political version of a WWF star and about just as informed and eloquent !..The GOP will never allow an egotistical creep and ignoramus like Trump to ruin the best chance they have had in many years to win the Presidency
Marco Rubio is not only going to win the nomination he is very likely to easily defeat Hilary Indeed , the race may seem like a maze of twists and turns but in retrospect it will become clear that Rubio was always going to win I have bet heavily on Rubio '6-1 back in October but I'm biding my time until March for Rubio's price to fall so I can bet again ...I am confident that he will be the next POTUS
Stop deluding yourself, if Rubio loses Iowa and NH his campaign is dead, just ask Rudy how his 2008 Florida strategy worked out. Trump and Cruz voters make up a clear majority now of GOP voters regardless of what the establishment thinks
I've been running a simulation based around the PP on 29%, and I get them on 120-125 seats, with almost half of their seats coming from them dominating the smaller provinces.
The interesting question is for places like Guadalajara, Avila and the like, who gets the third seat? I'd assumed it would be PSOE, but it might be Podemos.
Citizens polls very poorly in rural Spain, so they are lucky - in a way - not to get have too many wasted votes. If Podemos is third, but scoring 20% in rural provinces, then a large portion of their votes are going to go unrewarded.
Thanks, interesting. With the turnouts would have thought podemos has an excellent chance of coming 2nd. Seats must depend on the extent to which they can overhaul PSOE in the south.
The turnouts are pretty much as usual. Madrid, the Castilles and the Valencian provinces usually get the highest; the south, Catalonia and The Basque country the lowest. That is basically what is happening this time as well, it seems, though Catalonia looks to be up around 3% on last time, Andalucia down around 2%. I don't think that there is too much that can be read into any of those figures - except, perhaps, in Catalonia, where a higher turnout is almost certainly going to be very good for Podemos and Cs, as a lot of nationalists never vote in the Spanish elections.
Kind of agree but there are an awful lot of people in the cities so increasing turnout there even if it's a couple of percentage points will have a disproportionate effect on national vote share and psoe & podemos have been virtually tied in national polls. Anyway, we'll know shortly. Ideal outcome for podemos probably a grand co-alition. I've read their manifesto and the last thing they want is power it seems to me.
Yep. I cannot see a grand coalition being suggested - let alone working. A PP minority has to be the most likely outcome, but with a lot of instability. There are some things that PP and Cs can agree on, but plenty more that they will be at loggerheads over; in particular, constitutional reform. The relationship between PSOE and Podemos is likely to be even more dysfunctional, especially if they are more or less tied on vote share.
'You can have your weird moral objections to meat eating but they have no basis in fact'
There is as much point arguing with vegetarians as there is with Jehovah's Witnesses
I actually understand the idea future generations might look on us with disgust for eating meat, it crops up in Sci-Fi occasionally, but I cannot say I'm particularly bothered by what future generations will and won't find disgusting. As is often noted on here, there will be many things we consider normal now which will be frowned on in the future. And I'm misanthropic enough to find humanity unpardonable for doing those things now.
Will the students of the future be demanding any statues to known meat eaters of the past are ripped down? ;-)
#CarnivoresMustFall
Could happen, one day, Tyson is probably right meat eating will be seen as awful (when it is entirely, for everyone, unnecessary)
Even young Trotsky turns her nose at turkey. I once bought her some by mistake, and the smell of boiling it with her usual vegetables turned my toes upwards. By the way- I am not that crazy- I will buy my dog meat- but I had to put some very expensive pecorino cheese inside, (Trotsky's favourite), to entice her to eat it. And even then it was hard work.
Go organic chicken for Christmas. Ethically sound, tastes great (although I haven't for years), smells divine- and you don't have to use it for days after to make rancid sarnies because everyone has eaten it.
I've been running a simulation based around the PP on 29%, and I get them on 120-125 seats, with almost half of their seats coming from them dominating the smaller provinces.
The interesting question is for places like Guadalajara, Avila and the like, who gets the third seat? I'd assumed it would be PSOE, but it might be Podemos.
Citizens polls very poorly in rural Spain, so they are lucky - in a way - not to get have too many wasted votes. If Podemos is third, but scoring 20% in rural provinces, then a large portion of their votes are going to go unrewarded.
Thanks, interesting. With the turnouts would have thought podemos has an excellent chance of coming 2nd. Seats must depend on the extent to which they can overhaul PSOE in the south.
The turnouts are pretty much as usual. Madrid, the Castilles and the Valencian provinces usually get the highest; the south, Catalonia and The Basque country the lowest. That is basically what is happening this time as well, it seems, though Catalonia looks to be up around 3% on last time, Andalucia down around 2%. I don't think that there is too much that can be read into any of those figures - except, perhaps, in Catalonia, where a higher turnout is almost certainly going to be very good for Podemos and Cs, as a lot of nationalists never vote in the Spanish elections.
Although, of course, that isn't going to make much difference to the seat shares - only the vote shares.
It's all about PP to Cs and PSOE/IU to Podemos switchers. There will be a lot of the latter in Catalonia and Madrid, less in the south, I'd guess. The PP vote is pretty resilient for the reasons you have explained, but if there are big moves to Cs in the cities the rural vote will be less important. What is pretty much certain is that PP is going to lose dozens of seats and PSOE 20 to 30. The rest is up in the air.
I've been running a simulation based around the PP on 29%, and I get them on 120-125 seats, with almost half of their seats coming from them dominating the smaller provinces.
The interesting question is for places like Guadalajara, Avila and the like, who gets the third seat? I'd assumed it would be PSOE, but it might be Podemos.
Citizens polls very poorly in rural Spain, so they are lucky - in a way - not to get have too many wasted votes. If Podemos is third, but scoring 20% in rural provinces, then a large portion of their votes are going to go unrewarded.
Thanks, interesting. With the turnouts would have thought podemos has an excellent chance of coming 2nd. Seats must depend on the extent to which they can overhaul PSOE in the south.
The turnouts are pretty much as usual. Madrid, the Castilles and the Valencian provinces usually get the highest; the south, Catalonia and The Basque country the lowest. That is basically what is happening this time as well, it seems, though Catalonia looks to be up around 3% on last time, Andalucia down around 2%. I don't think that there is too much that can be read into any of those figures - except, perhaps, in Catalonia, where a higher turnout is almost certainly going to be very good for Podemos and Cs, as a lot of nationalists never vote in the Spanish elections.
Kind of agree but there are an awful lot of people in the cities so increasing turnout there even if it's a couple of percentage points will have a disproportionate effect on national vote share and psoe & podemos have been virtually tied in national polls. Anyway, we'll know shortly. Ideal outcome for podemos probably a grand co-alition. I've read their manifesto and the last thing they want is power it seems to me.
Yep. I cannot see a grand coalition being suggested - let alone working. A PP minority has to be the most likely outcome, but with a lot of instability. There are some things that PP and Cs can agree on, but plenty more that they will be at loggerheads over; in particular, constitutional reform. The relationship between PSOE and Podemos is likely to be even more dysfunctional, especially if they are more or less tied on vote share.
There are a lot of real unstable possible outcomes: if PSOE + P get 175 seats, then the pressure for them to form a coalition government will be enormous. (Even if such a thing were inherently unstable and a coalition of "losers".)
That being said, I think a PP minority government - assuming they are north of 125 seats, and them plus Cs tops 175 - will probably be pretty well recieved by the market.
Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.
What is your solution to bovine TB?
A naked Ed Miliband, armed only with a scimitar, should prowl the countryside night after night looking for infected badgers, and then engaging them n combat.
I think a naked Ed Miliband would encourage the badgers to flee, thereby encouraging spread of the disease*
* (to clarify, I mean bovine TB, not naked Ed Milibands)
I clearly have a better opinion of badgers' bravery than you do.
I think they would do their duty and attack.
I don't know. I'm pretty brave (well averagely so, and not tested under fire) and I wouldn't want to get into a tangle with that
PP really the only ones who actually want to be in Government I think. Ciudadanos will be entirely tactical - and trying to avoid the Lib Dem trap of doing the right thing for the country and getting no thanks for it. Looks like the combined left vote will be up by about 5 percentage points on 2011 (which was historically catastrophic) but can the two parties ever work together. It's a bit like the current Labour Party with the shadow cabinet as psoe and the Corbynites as podemos but in separate parties. All in all a mess. The Catalan and basque parties have kept fairly quiet but with a tight result they could have a big say. Although that might push voters towards the right in any 2nd election.
On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast
---------------------------------------
Cruz is indeed likely to win Iowa and Trump COULD win NH , but only because the establishment has not yet unified behind their candidate ; when they do it will be the end for Trump who has a low ceiling for votes ..I expect Trump to drop out of the race sometime in about March and then go back to his reality TV shows ....Trumpism is just a load of noise by low information voters ; he is in fact a political version of a WWF star and about just as informed and eloquent !..The GOP will never allow an egotistical creep and ignoramus like Trump to ruin the best chance they have had in many years to win the Presidency
Marco Rubio is not only going to win the nomination he is very likely to easily defeat Hilary Indeed , the race may seem like a maze of twists and turns but in retrospect it will become clear that Rubio was always going to win I have bet heavily on Rubio '6-1 back in October but I'm biding my time until March for Rubio's price to fall so I can bet again ...I am confident that he will be the next POTUS
Stop deluding yourself, if Rubio loses Iowa and NH his campaign is dead, just ask Rudy how his 2008 Florida strategy worked out. Trump and Cruz voters make up a clear majority now of GOP voters regardless of what the establishment thinks
------------------------------- RUBIO can afford to lose both Iowa and NH so long as he comes in second in NH As Nate Silver wisely noted , those blue states are ''weighted'' in favour of a ''moderate conservative ''...Cruz is very likely to take most southern states and be ahead but as the race leaves the bible belt Rubio will pick up more votes and eventually win and quite convincingly I suspect !
On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast
---------------------------------------
Cruz is indeed likely to win Iowa and Trump COULD win NH , but only because the establishment has not yet unified behind their candidate ; when they do it will be the end for Trump who has a low ceiling for votes ..I expect Trump to drop out of the race sometime in about March and then go back to his reality TV shows ....Trumpism is just a load of noise by low information voters ; he is in fact a political version of a WWF star and about just as informed and eloquent !..The GOP will never allow an egotistical creep and ignoramus like Trump to ruin the best chance they have had in many years to win the Presidency
Marco Rubio is not only going to win the nomination he is very likely to easily defeat Hilary Indeed , the race may seem like a maze of twists and turns but in retrospect it will become clear that Rubio was always going to win I have bet heavily on Rubio '6-1 back in October but I'm biding my time until March for Rubio's price to fall so I can bet again ...I am confident that he will be the next POTUS
Stop deluding yourself, if Rubio loses Iowa and NH his campaign is dead, just ask Rudy how his 2008 Florida strategy worked out. Trump and Cruz voters make up a clear majority now of GOP voters regardless of what the establishment thinks
------------------------------- RUBIO can afford to lose both Iowa and NH so long as he comes in second in NH As Nate Silver wisely noted , those blue states are ''weighted'' in favour of a ''moderate conservative ''...Cruz is very likely to take most southern states and be ahead but as the race leaves the bible belt Rubio will pick up more votes and eventually win and quite convincingly I suspect !
He'll be longer than 2-1 if Trump wins New Hampshire and Cruz takes Iowa. Alot longer.
Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.
What is your solution to bovine TB?
A naked Ed Miliband, armed only with a scimitar, should prowl the countryside night after night looking for infected badgers, and then engaging them n combat.
You've put a worrying amount if thought into that comment. Disturbing.
Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.
What is your solution to bovine TB?
A naked Ed Miliband, armed only with a scimitar, should prowl the countryside night after night looking for infected badgers, and then engaging them n combat.
You've put a worrying amount if thought into that comment. Disturbing.
You haven't been on PB long if you find that disturbing.
If we look at leader of the opposition and exclude anyone who did not make it to Prime Minister (since the 80's) we have :-
Corbyn (yet to make it) Harman twice Miliband Howard I D-S Hague Beckett Smith (died) Kinnock and Foot
Of them, how many did anyone give a monkeys about what they said because they were unelectable.. I would say ALL bar John Smith who died and would probably have been PM instead of Blair had he lived..
So It matters not what Miliband says IMHO, no one will pay attention and their image will just remind people how awful Labour was and still is... As Charles says... they make people reach for the off button..
On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast
---------------------------------------
Cruz is indeed likely to win Iowa and Trump COULD win NH , but only because the establishment has not yet unified behind their candidate ; when they do it will be the end for Trump who has a low ceiling for votes ..I expect Trump to drop out of the race sometime in about March and then go back to his reality TV shows ....Trumpism is just a load of noise by low information voters ; he is in fact a political version of a WWF star and about just as informed and eloquent !..The GOP will never allow an egotistical creep and ignoramus like Trump to ruin the best chance they have had in many years to win the Presidency
Marco Rubio is not only going to win the nomination he is very likely to easily defeat Hilary Indeed , the race may seem like a maze of twists and turns but in retrospect it will become clear that Rubio was always going to win I have bet heavily on Rubio '6-1 back in October but I'm biding my time until March for Rubio's price to fall so I can bet again ...I am confident that he will be the next POTUS
Stop deluding yourself, if Rubio loses Iowa and NH his campaign is dead, just ask Rudy how his 2008 Florida strategy worked out. Trump and Cruz voters make up a clear majority now of GOP voters regardless of what the establishment thinks
------------------------------- RUBIO can afford to lose both Iowa and NH so long as he comes in second in NH As Nate Silver wisely noted , those blue states are ''weighted'' in favour of a ''moderate conservative ''...Cruz is very likely to take most southern states and be ahead but as the race leaves the bible belt Rubio will pick up more votes and eventually win and quite convincingly I suspect !
Utter rubbish, as the chart above shows no candidate for the GOP nomination in the last half century has failed to win Iowa or NH and become the nominee. The only Democrat who did it, Bill Clinton, came a strong second in NH and then won South Carolina which would be the only pathway Rubio would then have and Cruz or Trump are highly likely to win the Palmetto State. By mid-March the race becomes winner take all anyway
On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast
---------------------------------------
Cruz is indeed likely to win Iowa and Trump COULD win NH , but only because the establishment has not yet unified behind their candidate ; when they do it will be the end for Trump who has a low ceiling for votes ..I expect Trump to drop out of the race sometime in about March and then go back to his reality TV shows ....Trumpism is just a load of noise by low information voters ; he is in fact a political version of a WWF star and about just as informed and eloquent !..The GOP will never allow an egotistical creep and ignoramus like Trump to ruin the best chance they have had in many years to win the Presidency
Marco Rubio is not only going to win the nomination he is very likely to easily defeat Hilary Indeed , the race may seem like a maze of twists and turns but in retrospect it will become clear that Rubio was always going to win I have bet heavily on Rubio '6-1 back in October but I'm biding my time until March for Rubio's price to fall so I can bet again ...I am confident that he will be the next POTUS
Stop deluding yourself, if Rubio loses Iowa and NH his campaign is dead, just ask Rudy how his 2008 Florida strategy worked out. Trump and Cruz voters make up a clear majority now of GOP voters regardless of what the establishment thinks
------------------------------- RUBIO can afford to lose both Iowa and NH so long as he comes in second in NH As Nate Silver wisely noted , those blue states are ''weighted'' in favour of a ''moderate conservative ''...Cruz is very likely to take most southern states and be ahead but as the race leaves the bible belt Rubio will pick up more votes and eventually win and quite convincingly I suspect !
He'll be longer than 2-1 if Trump wins New Hampshire and Cruz takes Iowa. Alot longer.
PP really the only ones who actually want to be in Government I think. Ciudadanos will be entirely tactical - and trying to avoid the Lib Dem trap of doing the right thing for the country and getting no thanks for it. Looks like the combined left vote will be up by about 5 percentage points on 2011 (which was historically catastrophic) but can the two parties ever work together. It's a bit like the current Labour Party with the shadow cabinet as psoe and the Corbynites as podemos but in separate parties. All in all a mess. The Catalan and basque parties have kept fairly quiet but with a tight result they could have a big say. Although that might push voters towards the right in any 2nd election.
The thing to remember about Cs is that it was born in Catalonia. Its leadership has a basic and deep seated hostility towards PP, for all kinds of reasons - two of which are PP's Spanish nationalism and its perceived cronyism/corruption. I also wonder just how much experience of any political processes the new Cs MPs will have. Unlike the LDs in 2010 most of them will never have been in parliament before. They will have a lot of learning to do, as will the Podemos MPs. Both sets will be like the SNP 56 but with real power in their hands. It's going to be fascinating to watch and almost impossible to predict. It's hard to see how a stable government is going to get formed - unless the polls have called it totally wrong. As we know here, that is not impossible :-)
PP really the only ones who actually want to be in Government I think. Ciudadanos will be entirely tactical - and trying to avoid the Lib Dem trap of doing the right thing for the country and getting no thanks for it. Looks like the combined left vote will be up by about 5 percentage points on 2011 (which was historically catastrophic) but can the two parties ever work together. It's a bit like the current Labour Party with the shadow cabinet as psoe and the Corbynites as podemos but in separate parties. All in all a mess. The Catalan and basque parties have kept fairly quiet but with a tight result they could have a big say. Although that might push voters towards the right in any 2nd election.
The thing to remember about Cs is that it was born in Catalonia. Its leadership has a basic and deep seated hostility towards PP, for all kinds of reasons - two of which are PP's Spanish nationalism and its perceived cronyism/corruption. I also wonder just how much experience of any political processes the new Cs MPs will have. Unlike the LDs in 2010 most of them will never have been in parliament before. They will have a lot of learning to do, as will the Podemos MPs. Both sets will be like the SNP 56 but with real power in their hands. It's going to be fascinating to watch and almost impossible to predict. It's hard to see how a stable government is going to get formed - unless the polls have called it totally wrong. As we know here, that is not impossible :-)
I agree with that with one caveat: C hates Podemos.
On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast
---------------------------------------
Cruz is indeed likely to win Iowa and Trump COULD win NH , but only because the establishment has not yet unified behind their candidate ; when they do it will be the end for Trump who has a low ceiling for votes ..I expect Trump to drop out of the race sometime in about March and then go back to his reality TV shows ....Trumpism is just a load of noise by low information voters ; he is in fact a political version of a WWF star and about just as informed and eloquent !..The GOP will never allow an egotistical creep and ignoramus like Trump to ruin the best chance they have had in many years to win the Presidency
Marco Rubio is not only going to win the nomination he is very likely to easily defeat Hilary Indeed , the race may seem like a maze of twists and turns but in retrospect it will become clear that Rubio was always going to win I have bet heavily on Rubio '6-1 back in October but I'm biding my time until March for Rubio's price to fall so I can bet again ...I am confident that he will be the next POTUS
Stop deluding yourself, if Rubio loses Iowa and NH his campaign is dead, just ask Rudy how his 2008 Florida strategy worked out. Trump and Cruz voters make up a clear majority now of GOP voters regardless of what the establishment thinks
------------------------------- RUBIO can afford to lose both Iowa and NH so long as he comes in second in NH As Nate Silver wisely noted , those blue states are ''weighted'' in favour of a ''moderate conservative ''...Cruz is very likely to take most southern states and be ahead but as the race leaves the bible belt Rubio will pick up more votes and eventually win and quite convincingly I suspect !
He'll be longer than 2-1 if Trump wins New Hampshire and Cruz takes Iowa. Alot longer.
I'm not betting on who wins the nomination anymore , I'm betting on who becomes president ;I can buy Rubio @5-1 right now but will wait until after NH to get an even better price Trump is not a serious candidate ; he is a reality TV star who is ''running for President '' as a rich mans form of entertainment and publicity stunt ...he has no intention of actually becoming president and would be horrified if it were forced upon him ..ergo , a second place in NH is a win for Rubio ..sooner or later Trump will fade and drop out of the race and CRUZ is no match for Rubio , that's for sure !
On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast
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Cruz is indeed likely to win Iowa and Trump COULD win NH , but only because the establishment has not yet unified behind their candidate ; when they do it will be the end for Trump who has a low ceiling for votes ..I expect Trump to drop out of the race sometime in about March and then go back to his reality TV shows ....Trumpism is just a load of noise by low information voters ; he is in fact a political version of a WWF star and about just as informed and eloquent !..The GOP will never allow an egotistical creep and ignoramus like Trump to ruin the best chance they have had in many years to win the Presidency
Marco Rubio is not only going to win the nomination he is very likely to easily defeat Hilary Indeed , the race may seem like a maze of twists and turns but in retrospect it will become clear that Rubio was always going to win I have bet heavily on Rubio '6-1 back in October but I'm biding my time until March for Rubio's price to fall so I can bet again ...I am confident that he will be the next POTUS
Stop deluding yourself, if Rubio loses Iowa and NH his campaign is dead, just ask Rudy how his 2008 Florida strategy worked out. Trump and Cruz voters make up a clear majority now of GOP voters regardless of what the establishment thinks
------------------------------- RUBIO can afford to lose both Iowa and NH so long as he comes in second in NH As Nate Silver wisely noted , those blue states are ''weighted'' in favour of a ''moderate conservative ''...Cruz is very likely to take most southern states and be ahead but as the race leaves the bible belt Rubio will pick up more votes and eventually win and quite convincingly I suspect !
This is clearly delusional and misinformed. If Rubio loses all the early primaries why would anyone support a sure loser, voters included. Tell me one primary that Rubio can win if he loses all early states. In fact also tell me one primary that Rubio is ahead or has momentum.
Betting on Rubio if he loses all early primaries is like betting Chelsea is going to win the premiership, after all the bad results they already got.
The simple fact is that we live in the present. All of us always; and we can look at some of our historical actions with some curiosity and wonder how the future will be. I guess how many Ancient Greeks thought sodomising young boys not quite right. If they did, they were probably in the minority. The horrors of ISIS are little more than outdated social mores that were commonplace in christianity until quite recently.
I think eating meat will be surpassed by issues of hygiene in the future. The way we farm and eat pigs is really gross. The filth that turkeys live in- and we are going to tuck into them for our festive treat.
Meat farming......... disease, excrement, antibiotics, steroids, slaughter.....it really is all quite disgusting. Most people, when faced with the brutal facts, find it all quite grim.
'You can have your weird moral objections to meat eating but they have no basis in fact'
There is as much point arguing with vegetarians as there is with Jehovah's Witnesses
I actually understand the idea future generations might look on us with disgust for eating meat, it crops up in Sci-Fi occasionally, but I cannot say I'm particularly bothered by what future generations will and won't find disgusting. As is often noted on here, there will be many things we consider normal now which will be frowned on in the future. And I'm misanthropic enough to find humanity unpardonable for doing those things now.
You do realise that steriods are banned in Europe, and that antibiotic usage is falling like a stone. Physical castration is about to be banned as well.
Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago #SPAIN: Exit polls predict conservative People's Party on 114-118 seats, Socialist Party 81-85, Podemos 76-80 and Ciudadanos 47-50.
Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago #SPAIN: Exit polls predict conservative People's Party on 114-118 seats, Socialist Party 81-85, Podemos 76-80 and Ciudadanos 47-50.
On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast
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Cruz is indeed likely to win Iowa and Trump COULD win NH , but only because the Marco Rubio is not only going to win the nomination he is very likely to easily defeat
Stop deluding yourself, if Rubio loses Iowa and NH his campaign is dead, just ask Rudy how his 2008 Florida strategy worked out. Trump and Cruz voters make up a clear majority now of GOP voters regardless of what the establishment thinks
------------------------------- RUBIO can afford to lose both Iowa and NH so long as he comes in second in NH As Nate Silver wisely noted , those blue states are ''weighted'' in favour of a ''moderate conservative ''...Cruz is very likely to take most southern states and be ahead but as the race leaves the bible belt Rubio will pick up more votes and eventually win and quite convincingly I suspect !
He'll be longer than 2-1 if Trump wins New Hampshire and Cruz takes Iowa. Alot longer.
I'm not betting on who wins the nomination anymore , I'm betting on who becomes president ;I can buy Rubio @5-1 right now but will wait until after NH to get an even better price Trump is not a serious candidate ; he is a reality TV star who is ''running for President '' as a rich mans form of entertainment and publicity stunt ...he has no intention of actually becoming president and would be horrified if it were forced upon him ..ergo , a second place in NH is a win for Rubio ..sooner or later Trump will fade and drop out of the race and CRUZ is no match for Rubio , that's for sure !
Except you have to win the nomination first to even have a chance of becoming president. Trump is quite clearly running for president and the GOP base clearly are backing him in big numbers, Cruz is now overtaking Rubio for second. You sound like Labour figures dismissing Corbyn as a serious candidate and his chances of becoming Labour leader, Trump's momentum is now increasingly looking like Corbyn's, Rubio is increasingly looking like the Andy Burnham of the GOP race, probably the best general election candidate but someone not a fit for a party base putting ideology above all else
Best case for Rajoy currently is a minority government with the support of C's and a couple of minor nationalist parties, worst case for him a PSOE-Podemos government with the support of minor nationalist parties. It's a messy situation at present, basically what opinion polls said a long time now, it would need more than 2 parties to form a government.
Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago #SPAIN: Exit polls predict conservative People's Party on 114-118 seats, Socialist Party 81-85, Podemos 76-80 and Ciudadanos 47-50.
If the exits are wrong, they have probably understated PP and overstated Podemos - wouldn't be surprised to see PSOE finish the night ahead of Pod on vote share.
So a PP min govt not opposed by C's might be the final outcome and just squeak over the line.
Cruz is a very poor candidate ...no one outside of his family actually likes him ...he is an oily zealot with a weird nasal twang , is strangely pale faced and is not photogenic ...he is too redstate , too Texan and just too much out of the zeitgeist to appeal to those crucial swing voters ...he is never going to beat Hilary as he reinforces too many negative republican stereotypes In the age of TV politics , appearance and ''likability '' is crucial
Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago #SPAIN: Exit polls predict conservative People's Party on 114-118 seats, Socialist Party 81-85, Podemos 76-80 and Ciudadanos 47-50.
What sort of Gov't is this ?
Difficult to see where a stable one comes from with that result. PP and PSOE have both gone backwards, Cs have not done as well as they might have expected a fortnight ago. Podemos has bounced back.
Looks like will be very close between a PP-Citizens deal and a PSOE-Podemos deal
PSOE-P will find it easier to do a deal with nationalists... But if PP + C is five seats ahead of PSOE + P it will be hard to hold together.
Also, who is the senior partner in P + PSOE, one ahead on votes, the other on seats
I think Rajoy will hold on in the end as leader of the largest party and cobble together some sort of confidence deal with Citizens, as you say as PSOE are ahead on seats of Podemos but Podemos are ahead on votes a deal between them is probably too impractical in the end
If the exits are wrong, they have probably understated PP and overstated Podemos - wouldn't be surprised to see PSOE finish the night ahead of Pod on vote share.
So a PP min govt not opposed by C's might be the final outcome and just squeak over the line.
Best case for Rajoy currently is a minority government with the support of C's and a couple of minor nationalist parties, worst case for him a PSOE-Podemos government with the support of minor nationalist parties. It's a messy situation at present, basically what opinion polls said a long time now, it would need more than 2 parties to form a government.
If the exits are wrong, they have probably understated PP and overstated Podemos - wouldn't be surprised to see PSOE finish the night ahead of Pod on vote share.
So a PP min govt not opposed by C's might be the final outcome and just squeak over the line.
Assuming PSOE and Podemos vote against a Rajoy government when parliament reconvenes, Cs would have to vote for, along with the regional parties, in order for PP to retain power. There is going to be a lot of horse-trading over the next two or three weeks.
Cruz is a very poor candidate ...no one outside of his family actually likes him ...he is an oily zealot with a weird nasal twang , is strangely pale faced and is not photogenic ...he is too redstate , too Texan and just too much out of the zeitgeist to appeal to those crucial swing voters ...he is never going to beat Hilary as he reinforces too many negative republican stereotypes In the age of TV politics , appearance and ''likability '' is crucial
So what, that is why GOP voters like him and they are the voters who pick the GOP nominee before he even gets to face swing voters. The GOP base is in a similarly mood to Labour members at the moment, they are not interested in appearance and 'likeability' and moderation they want conservative red meat!
Cruz is a very poor candidate ...no one outside of his family actually likes him ...he is an oily zealot with a weird nasal twang , is strangely pale faced and is not photogenic ...he is too redstate , too Texan and just too much out of the zeitgeist to appeal to those crucial swing voters ...he is never going to beat Hilary as he reinforces too many negative republican stereotypes In the age of TV politics , appearance and ''likability '' is crucial
Plus the inconvenient fact that he's not eligible...
If the exits are wrong, they have probably understated PP and overstated Podemos - wouldn't be surprised to see PSOE finish the night ahead of Pod on vote share.
So a PP min govt not opposed by C's might be the final outcome and just squeak over the line.
Assuming PSOE and Podemos vote against a Rajoy government when parliament reconvenes, Cs would have to vote for, along with the regional parties, in order for PP to retain power. There is going to be a lot of horse-trading over the next two or three weeks.
We will have to see the final results, but I do expect that the catalan nationalists will demand a lot in exchange for their support, and they really hate Rajoy who is trying to jail them for years.
In the age of TV politics , appearance and ''likability '' is crucial
If that is true then how do explain Hilary Clinton?
Well the democrats don't have anyone else that can run for president, it's Hillary or bust for them. They are well short of senators and governors that can have national appeal, it doesn't help that all the cameras are on Obama when someone needs to talk about the democrats, the republicans had the same problem after 8 years of Reagan and 8 years of Bush Jr.
Annoyingly, doesn't look like the Interior Ministry site will be releasing results until 8pm GMT so that's the next milestone of the evening when it will probably jump straight up to 35/40% counted.
Fascinating election and an absolute mould-breaker for Spain - shades of the collapse of Pasok in 2012 or Fianna Fail in 2011 or the breakthrough for 5 Star in Italy 2013.
The Catalan ERC are 5th with 9-11 seats and would presumably support a centre-left government? The CiU has broken up and the DL seems to be the closest to a successor party.
In the age of TV politics , appearance and ''likability '' is crucial
If that is true then how do explain Hilary Clinton?
Well the democrats don't have anyone else that can run for president, it's Hillary or bust for them. They are well short of senators and governors that can have national appeal, it doesn't help that all the cameras are on Obama when someone needs to talk about the democrats, the republicans had the same problem after 8 years of Reagan and 8 years of Bush Jr.
Annoyingly, doesn't look like the Interior Ministry site will be releasing results until 8pm GMT so that's the next milestone of the evening when it will probably jump straight up to 35/40% counted.
Fascinating election and an absolute mould-breaker for Spain - shades of the collapse of Pasok in 2012 or Fianna Fail in 2011 or the breakthrough for 5 Star in Italy 2013.
The Catalan ERC are 5th with 9-11 seats and would presumably support a centre-left government? The CiU has broken up and the DL seems to be the closest to a successor party.
The equal shares for Podemos and PSOE make for difficult left wing negotiations too. There is no obvious junior partner.
(I see Arnie has been signed up to front two seasons of the Apprentice in the US....)
Well the NIxon rule of picking your VP is simple: The VP is your life insurance, so that your enemies think again before they get rid of you by impeachment or assassination if the next in line is even worse than you are.
So sure a President Trump might be appalling, but a President Cruz in case something happens to President Trump wouldn't be any better, in fact it could be worse especially on social policies.
As Nixon said, both LBJ and I wanted to be President. The difference is I wasn't prepared to kill for it.
In the age of TV politics , appearance and ''likability '' is crucial
If that is true then how do explain Hilary Clinton?
Well the democrats don't have anyone else that can run for president, it's Hillary or bust for them. They are well short of senators and governors that can have national appeal, it doesn't help that all the cameras are on Obama when someone needs to talk about the democrats, the republicans had the same problem after 8 years of Reagan and 8 years of Bush Jr.
Err Bush Snr won easily after Regan.
But there was no one else that could realistically have won the nomination or the election in 1988, same position with Hillary and Obama today. You see when your party gets the presidency then all the lights fall on the president and no one else within your party. Sooner or later you run out of people who can be credible or known nationally.
That's why in 1992 the only alternative to Bush with the party that held the White house was Buchanan, while the democrats had half a dozen credible candidates. In 2000 there was no alternative to Gore, in 2008 there was no alternative but McCain who ran in 2000, and today they have no alternative but Hillary.
The party that holds the white house always stifles all the other prominent figures except the President and the VP.
Annoyingly, doesn't look like the Interior Ministry site will be releasing results until 8pm GMT so that's the next milestone of the evening when it will probably jump straight up to 35/40% counted.
Fascinating election and an absolute mould-breaker for Spain - shades of the collapse of Pasok in 2012 or Fianna Fail in 2011 or the breakthrough for 5 Star in Italy 2013.
The Catalan ERC are 5th with 9-11 seats and would presumably support a centre-left government? The CiU has broken up and the DL seems to be the closest to a successor party.
At best ERC will abstain in support of a centre-left government. It would not actively support one. But given this result I'd say a centre left government is very unlikely. There is no love lost between PSOE and Podemos.
In the age of TV politics , appearance and ''likability '' is crucial
If that is true then how do explain Hilary Clinton?
Well the democrats don't have anyone else that can run for president, it's Hillary or bust for them. They are well short of senators and governors that can have national appeal, it doesn't help that all the cameras are on Obama when someone needs to talk about the democrats, the republicans had the same problem after 8 years of Reagan and 8 years of Bush Jr.
Err Bush Snr won easily after Regan.
But there was no one else that could realistically have won the nomination or the election in 1988, same position with Hillary and Obama today. You see when your party gets the presidency then all the lights fall on the president and no one else within your party. Sooner or later you run out of people who can be credible or known nationally.
That's why in 1992 the only alternative to Bush with the party that held the White house was Buchanan, while the democrats had half a dozen credible candidates. In 2000 there was no alternative to Gore, in 2008 there was no alternative but McCain who ran in 2000, and today they have no alternative but Hillary.
The party that holds the white house always stifles all the other prominent figures except the President and the VP.
Ah I get what you are saying, I misunderstood your previous post.
Annoyingly, doesn't look like the Interior Ministry site will be releasing results until 8pm GMT so that's the next milestone of the evening when it will probably jump straight up to 35/40% counted.
Fascinating election and an absolute mould-breaker for Spain - shades of the collapse of Pasok in 2012 or Fianna Fail in 2011 or the breakthrough for 5 Star in Italy 2013.
The Catalan ERC are 5th with 9-11 seats and would presumably support a centre-left government? The CiU has broken up and the DL seems to be the closest to a successor party.
The equal shares for Podemos and PSOE make for difficult left wing negotiations too. There is no obvious junior partner.
At present it will all go down to the catalan nationalists. The price that they will demand would obviously be independence for catalonia, if not then as much autonomy as they can get. They are in a much stronger position than the SNP (apart from holding the balance of power), since they have already started their own unilateral process for independence and got a pro-independence majority in their referendum.
In the age of TV politics , appearance and ''likability '' is crucial
If that is true then how do explain Hilary Clinton?
Hillary is the Democrats Nixon, she may well end up lucky in her opponents, just as Nixon probably would have lost to Bobby Kennedy in 1968 had he faced him rather than Hubert Humphrey and then George McGovern, so Hillary is lucky in that she may face Trump and Cruz rather than Rubio. 8 years earlier facing the charismatic and likeable JFK Nixon was narrowly beaten, just as in 2008 Hillary lost to the more likeable and charismatic Obama
Annoyingly, doesn't look like the Interior Ministry site will be releasing results until 8pm GMT so that's the next milestone of the evening when it will probably jump straight up to 35/40% counted.
Fascinating election and an absolute mould-breaker for Spain - shades of the collapse of Pasok in 2012 or Fianna Fail in 2011 or the breakthrough for 5 Star in Italy 2013.
The Catalan ERC are 5th with 9-11 seats and would presumably support a centre-left government? The CiU has broken up and the DL seems to be the closest to a successor party.
The equal shares for Podemos and PSOE make for difficult left wing negotiations too. There is no obvious junior partner.
I suspect PSOE will come out somewhat ahead of Podemos on seats.
Annoyingly, doesn't look like the Interior Ministry site will be releasing results until 8pm GMT so that's the next milestone of the evening when it will probably jump straight up to 35/40% counted.
Fascinating election and an absolute mould-breaker for Spain - shades of the collapse of Pasok in 2012 or Fianna Fail in 2011 or the breakthrough for 5 Star in Italy 2013.
The Catalan ERC are 5th with 9-11 seats and would presumably support a centre-left government? The CiU has broken up and the DL seems to be the closest to a successor party.
The equal shares for Podemos and PSOE make for difficult left wing negotiations too. There is no obvious junior partner.
Yes. Not only has the mould been broken nationally but also in catalunya. CiU had been corrupt establishment just as much as PP/PSOE and the vote there has fractured, making it difficult for anyone to cobble together a co-alition. PNV are the last man standing in any sort of shape of the old order. People would I think do well to avoid comparisons with Greece yet. Podemos have a (I think) far lower maximum vote from Syriza and there is no top up bonus unlike Greece which allows an outright majority with 35%. There has to be another election I think even if PP do a bit better than the exit poll and scrape a governing co-alition. Reckon Rajoy needs to go and some symbolic acts of cleansing before a new election if they are to have any chance of a working majority.
In the age of TV politics , appearance and ''likability '' is crucial
If that is true then how do explain Hilary Clinton?
Well the democrats don't have anyone else that can run for president, it's Hillary or bust for them. They are well short of senators and governors that can have national appeal, it doesn't help that all the cameras are on Obama when someone needs to talk about the democrats, the republicans had the same problem after 8 years of Reagan and 8 years of Bush Jr.
Err Bush Snr won easily after Regan.
But there was no one else that could realistically have won the nomination or the election in 1988, same position with Hillary and Obama today. You see when your party gets the presidency then all the lights fall on the president and no one else within your party. Sooner or later you run out of people who can be credible or known nationally.
That's why in 1992 the only alternative to Bush with the party that held the White house was Buchanan, while the democrats had half a dozen credible candidates. In 2000 there was no alternative to Gore, in 2008 there was no alternative but McCain who ran in 2000, and today they have no alternative but Hillary.
The party that holds the white house always stifles all the other prominent figures except the President and the VP.
Ah I get what you are saying, I misunderstood your previous post.
Indeed, just think after Hillary who? Bernie Sanders will be too old to run next time and there is no one else, expect perhaps Hillary's VP (though that's a little early to say).
In contrast after Trump or Cruz, the republicans still have a lot of potential candidates who are both credible and well known.
Annoyingly, doesn't look like the Interior Ministry site will be releasing results until 8pm GMT so that's the next milestone of the evening when it will probably jump straight up to 35/40% counted.
Fascinating election and an absolute mould-breaker for Spain - shades of the collapse of Pasok in 2012 or Fianna Fail in 2011 or the breakthrough for 5 Star in Italy 2013.
The Catalan ERC are 5th with 9-11 seats and would presumably support a centre-left government? The CiU has broken up and the DL seems to be the closest to a successor party.
The equal shares for Podemos and PSOE make for difficult left wing negotiations too. There is no obvious junior partner.
At present it will all go down to the catalan nationalists. The price that they will demand would obviously be independence for catalonia, if not then as much autonomy as they can get. They are in a much stronger position than the SNP (apart from holding the balance of power), since they have already started their own unilateral process for independence and got a pro-independence majority in their referendum.
But they have not done that well today it looks like. Pro-independence parties in Catalonia have not come close to repeating what the SNP did in May. Convergencia seem to have been almost totally wiped out.
Annoyingly, doesn't look like the Interior Ministry site will be releasing results until 8pm GMT so that's the next milestone of the evening when it will probably jump straight up to 35/40% counted.
Fascinating election and an absolute mould-breaker for Spain - shades of the collapse of Pasok in 2012 or Fianna Fail in 2011 or the breakthrough for 5 Star in Italy 2013.
The Catalan ERC are 5th with 9-11 seats and would presumably support a centre-left government? The CiU has broken up and the DL seems to be the closest to a successor party.
The equal shares for Podemos and PSOE make for difficult left wing negotiations too. There is no obvious junior partner.
Yes. Not only has the mould been broken nationally but also in catalunya. CiU had been corrupt establishment just as much as PP/PSOE and the vote there has fractured, making it difficult for anyone to cobble together a co-alition. PNV are the last man standing in any sort of shape of the old order. People would I think do well to avoid comparisons with Greece yet. Podemos have a (I think) far lower maximum vote from Syriza and there is no top up bonus unlike Greece which allows an outright majority with 35%. There has to be another election I think even if PP do a bit better than the exit poll and scrape a governing co-alition. Reckon Rajoy needs to go and some symbolic acts of cleansing before a new election if they are to have any chance of a working majority.
It's also worth remembering that Podemos did not stand as a single party across Spain, but as a loose collective. Within the Podemos bloc there may well be very differing views on what to do next.
Annoyingly, doesn't look like the Interior Ministry site will be releasing results until 8pm GMT so that's the next milestone of the evening when it will probably jump straight up to 35/40% counted.
Fascinating election and an absolute mould-breaker for Spain - shades of the collapse of Pasok in 2012 or Fianna Fail in 2011 or the breakthrough for 5 Star in Italy 2013.
The Catalan ERC are 5th with 9-11 seats and would presumably support a centre-left government? The CiU has broken up and the DL seems to be the closest to a successor party.
The equal shares for Podemos and PSOE make for difficult left wing negotiations too. There is no obvious junior partner.
At present it will all go down to the catalan nationalists. The price that they will demand would obviously be independence for catalonia, if not then as much autonomy as they can get. They are in a much stronger position than the SNP (apart from holding the balance of power), since they have already started their own unilateral process for independence and got a pro-independence majority in their referendum.
But they have not done that well today it looks like. Pro-independence parties in Catalonia have not come close to repeating what the SNP did in May. Convergencia seem to have been almost totally wiped out.
It matters in seats, both the left and the right wing blocks are about 10 seats away from a majority, the nationalists will have those numbers needed for either block to govern Spain. Since the nationalists control local politics and the catalan assembly along with 2 referendum wins for independence, they can demand what they wish for.
Annoyingly, doesn't look like the Interior Ministry site will be releasing results until 8pm GMT so that's the next milestone of the evening when it will probably jump straight up to 35/40% counted.
Fascinating election and an absolute mould-breaker for Spain - shades of the collapse of Pasok in 2012 or Fianna Fail in 2011 or the breakthrough for 5 Star in Italy 2013.
The Catalan ERC are 5th with 9-11 seats and would presumably support a centre-left government? The CiU has broken up and the DL seems to be the closest to a successor party.
The equal shares for Podemos and PSOE make for difficult left wing negotiations too. There is no obvious junior partner.
At present it will all go down to the catalan nationalists. The price that they will demand would obviously be independence for catalonia, if not then as much autonomy as they can get. They are in a much stronger position than the SNP (apart from holding the balance of power), since they have already started their own unilateral process for independence and got a pro-independence majority in their referendum.
But they have not done that well today it looks like. Pro-independence parties in Catalonia have not come close to repeating what the SNP did in May. Convergencia seem to have been almost totally wiped out.
It matters in seats, both the left and the right wing blocks are about 10 seats away from a majority, the nationalists will have those numbers needed for either block to govern Spain. Since the nationalists control local politics and the catalan assembly along with 2 referendum wins for independence, they can demand what they wish for.
There are no circumstances under which any of the major Spanish parties will give ERC what they want - independence. It is possible that the left might concede a referendum on a new settlement for Catalonia within Spain.
I just put 20 notes on Tyson on betfair out of solidarity- namesake, fellow Mancunian, fellow Irish stock, ginger genes- we could be twins. Plus the fact that watching the Klitschko fight in a bar at Manchester was one of the most pleasurable things I have ever done with my clothes on. I suspect Tyson really is a veggie, liberal, lefty parading as this macho type.
BTW- I never win a sports bet to save my life, so buyers beware and all that.
PP looks to be ahead of expectations - they're looking like they're already on 122 seats. If they are north of 125, heading towards 130, then hard to see anything other than a minority government.
If we look at leader of the opposition and exclude anyone who did not make it to Prime Minister (since the 80's) we have :-
Corbyn (yet to make it) Harman twice Miliband Howard I D-S Hague Beckett Smith (died) Kinnock and Foot
Of them, how many did anyone give a monkeys about what they said because they were unelectable.. I would say ALL bar John Smith who died and would probably have been PM instead of Blair had he lived..
So It matters not what Miliband says IMHO, no one will pay attention and their image will just remind people how awful Labour was and still is... As Charles says... they make people reach for the off button..
And so says a (right-wing) PB Tory...
This blog has sadly turned into a right-wing fruitcake/loon hangout. Sad times...
I just put 20 notes on Tyson on betfair out of solidarity- namesake, fellow Mancunian, fellow Irish stock, ginger genes- we could be twins. Plus the fact that watching the Klitschko fight in a bar at Manchester was one of the most pleasurable things I have ever done with my clothes on. I suspect Tyson really is a veggie, liberal, lefty parading as this macho type.
BTW- I never win a sports bet to save my life, so buyers beware and all that.
PP looks to be ahead of expectations - they're looking like they're already on 122 seats. If they are north of 125, heading towards 130, then hard to see anything other than a minority government.
That's got to be wonky. Maybe they're just playing with D'Hondt as votes come in at random...
"Wichampis Wichampis With 7.12% of votes counted, the PP wins the elections. The first official figures show Rajoy’s party winning 119 seats, followed by the Socialists with 98. Podemos gets 38 seats, but its sister groups get another 23 seats. Ciudadanos is running fourth with 26 deputies."
PP looks to be ahead of expectations - they're looking like they're already on 122 seats. If they are north of 125, heading towards 130, then hard to see anything other than a minority government.
That's got to be wonky. Maybe they're just playing with D'Hondt as votes come in at random...
Way off the exits!
The vote shares are off because we've not had many votes counted from the big munacipalities. But the seats reflect the PP picking up a lot of rural provinces, as I've pointed out a lot on here
PP looks to be ahead of expectations - they're looking like they're already on 122 seats. If they are north of 125, heading towards 130, then hard to see anything other than a minority government.
That's got to be wonky. Maybe they're just playing with D'Hondt as votes come in at random...
Way off the exits!
The vote shares are off because we've not had many votes counted from the big munacipalities. But the seats reflect the PP picking up a lot of rural provinces, as I've pointed out a lot on here
The electoral system is totally gerrymandered to give the PP disproportionate seats from their rural votes.
If the gap is maintained, it will be a PP minority government
New provinces reporting. Now:
PP + Cs = 155 PSOE + P = 135
With 155 it's not a government, the numbers needed for a majority is 176. It's way low even for a minority one, I think a second election will be due.
The total is only 312 out of 350. So there are 38 provinces without predictions - mostly from big munacipalities, which is why Podemos and C are so low.
I'm going to come out of the closet big time here- I really like Tyson Fury, I like Donald Trump, I like Boris Johnson and I even like Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. I also liked George Dubya Bush. As a pretty full on Man City fan I always liked Alex Ferguson and Gary Neville particularly, I like Morihno, I like Liverpool Football Club. That's it. my conscience is clear of all my contradictions.
I just put 20 notes on Tyson on betfair out of solidarity- namesake, fellow Mancunian, fellow Irish stock, ginger genes- we could be twins. Plus the fact that watching the Klitschko fight in a bar at Manchester was one of the most pleasurable things I have ever done with my clothes on. I suspect Tyson really is a veggie, liberal, lefty parading as this macho type.
BTW- I never win a sports bet to save my life, so buyers beware and all that.
PP looks to be ahead of expectations - they're looking like they're already on 122 seats. If they are north of 125, heading towards 130, then hard to see anything other than a minority government.
That's got to be wonky. Maybe they're just playing with D'Hondt as votes come in at random...
Way off the exits!
The vote shares are off because we've not had many votes counted from the big munacipalities. But the seats reflect the PP picking up a lot of rural provinces, as I've pointed out a lot on here
The electoral system is totally gerrymandered to give the PP disproportionate seats from their rural votes.
Podemos looks to be piling up lots of votes just below the threshold in rural seats, could really screw them in seat share.
Comments
I think eating meat will be surpassed by issues of hygiene in the future. The way we farm and eat pigs is really gross. The filth that turkeys live in- and we are going to tuck into them for our festive treat.
Meat farming......... disease, excrement, antibiotics, steroids, slaughter.....it really is all quite disgusting. Most people, when faced with the brutal facts, find it all quite grim.
What are people's gut feelings about the new government that will emerge?
PP minority govt (Rajoy still PM?) with conf/supply from Cuidadanos? Rivera has pointed to the Lib Dems as what can happen to junior coalition partners so doesn't seem keen to join one.
I think it will get very interesting if PP + C's is not a majority, depends what the numbers look like - would have thought a PP/PSOE grand coalition unlikely but these are uncharted waters for modern Spanish politics.
Could happen, one day, Tyson is probably right meat eating will be seen as awful (when it is entirely, for everyone, unnecessary)
Good night all.
Go organic chicken for Christmas. Ethically sound, tastes great (although I haven't for years), smells divine- and you don't have to use it for days after to make rancid sarnies because everyone has eaten it.
That being said, I think a PP minority government - assuming they are north of 125 seats, and them plus Cs tops 175 - will probably be pretty well recieved by the market.
PP really the only ones who actually want to be in Government I think. Ciudadanos will be entirely tactical - and trying to avoid the Lib Dem trap of doing the right thing for the country and getting no thanks for it. Looks like the combined left vote will be up by about 5 percentage points on 2011 (which was historically catastrophic) but can the two parties ever work together. It's a bit like the current Labour Party with the shadow cabinet as psoe and the Corbynites as podemos but in separate parties. All in all a mess. The Catalan and basque parties have kept fairly quiet but with a tight result they could have a big say. Although that might push voters towards the right in any 2nd election.
RUBIO can afford to lose both Iowa and NH so long as he comes in second in NH
As Nate Silver wisely noted , those blue states are ''weighted'' in favour of a ''moderate conservative ''...Cruz is very likely to take most southern states and be ahead but as the race leaves the bible belt Rubio will pick up more votes and eventually win and quite convincingly I suspect !
A belated welcome, btw.
Corbyn (yet to make it)
Of them, how many did anyone give a monkeys about what they said because they were unelectable.. I would say ALL bar John Smith who died and would probably have been PM instead of Blair had he lived..
So It matters not what Miliband says IMHO, no one will pay attention and their image will just remind people how awful Labour was and still is... As Charles says... they make people reach for the off button..
PP 114-118 (26)
PSOE 81-85 (20)
Podemos 76-80 (21)
Ciudadanos 47-50 (15)
Vote shares in brackets
They will rest easy for the next couple of hours after limiting their exposure.
Trump is not a serious candidate ; he is a reality TV star who is ''running for President '' as a rich mans form of entertainment and publicity stunt ...he has no intention of actually becoming president and would be horrified if it were forced upon him ..ergo , a second place in NH is a win for Rubio ..sooner or later Trump will fade and drop out of the race and CRUZ is no match for Rubio , that's for sure !
If Rubio loses all the early primaries why would anyone support a sure loser, voters included.
Tell me one primary that Rubio can win if he loses all early states.
In fact also tell me one primary that Rubio is ahead or has momentum.
Betting on Rubio if he loses all early primaries is like betting Chelsea is going to win the premiership, after all the bad results they already got.
http://www.rtve.es/directo/canal-24h/
Looks like will be very close between a PP-Citizens deal and a PSOE-Podemos deal
#SPAIN: Exit polls predict conservative People's Party on 114-118 seats, Socialist Party 81-85, Podemos 76-80 and Ciudadanos 47-50.
It's a messy situation at present, basically what opinion polls said a long time now, it would need more than 2 parties to form a government.
"EL PAÍS director of news Miguel Jiménez raises the possibility that Spain may have to hold new elections if there is no clear winner tonight. Live TV show (in Spanish) on elpais.com right now"
http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/12/18/media/1450434499_422758.html?id_externo_rsoc=TW_CM
So a PP min govt not opposed by C's might be the final outcome and just squeak over the line.
In the age of TV politics , appearance and ''likability '' is crucial
Also, who is the senior partner in P + PSOE, one ahead on votes, the other on seats
PP + Cit = 164.5
PSOE + Pod = 161
Very close!
They are well short of senators and governors that can have national appeal, it doesn't help that all the cameras are on Obama when someone needs to talk about the democrats, the republicans had the same problem after 8 years of Reagan and 8 years of Bush Jr.
Fascinating election and an absolute mould-breaker for Spain - shades of the collapse of Pasok in 2012 or Fianna Fail in 2011 or the breakthrough for 5 Star in Italy 2013.
The Catalan ERC are 5th with 9-11 seats and would presumably support a centre-left government? The CiU has broken up and the DL seems to be the closest to a successor party.
Cruz and Paul seem to be on the same page.
http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2015/12/america_first_is_the_last_thing_the_neo_conservati.html
Jim Webb also sings from the same hymn sheet. A fun very outside long shot is Trump's old pal Jesse 'the body' Ventura.
But yes I would expect that to be the principle on which Trump would pick his running mate, he has no illusions.
You see when your party gets the presidency then all the lights fall on the president and no one else within your party.
Sooner or later you run out of people who can be credible or known nationally.
That's why in 1992 the only alternative to Bush with the party that held the White house was Buchanan, while the democrats had half a dozen credible candidates.
In 2000 there was no alternative to Gore, in 2008 there was no alternative but McCain who ran in 2000, and today they have no alternative but Hillary.
The party that holds the white house always stifles all the other prominent figures except the President and the VP.
Podemos leads in Basque region, 2nd to PP in Madrid region, Andalucia PSOE just ahead of PP, Podemos alliance leads in Catalonia.
The price that they will demand would obviously be independence for catalonia, if not then as much autonomy as they can get.
They are in a much stronger position than the SNP (apart from holding the balance of power), since they have already started their own unilateral process for independence and got a pro-independence majority in their referendum.
This isn't a tip!
Bernie Sanders will be too old to run next time and there is no one else, expect perhaps Hillary's VP (though that's a little early to say).
In contrast after Trump or Cruz, the republicans still have a lot of potential candidates who are both credible and well known.
Since the nationalists control local politics and the catalan assembly along with 2 referendum wins for independence, they can demand what they wish for.
BTW- I never win a sports bet to save my life, so buyers beware and all that.
http://resultadosgenerales2015.interior.es/congreso/#/ES201512-CON-ES/ES
PP looks to be ahead of expectations - they're looking like they're already on 122 seats. If they are north of 125, heading towards 130, then hard to see anything other than a minority government.
This blog has sadly turned into a right-wing fruitcake/loon hangout. Sad times...
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/6807201/Tyson-Fury-shocks-gay-man-by-kissing-him-on-both-cheeks.html
What's he going to say now...?
So I'm on Fury & Rutherford....
Andy is 1/50 top three finish...isn't that free money?
PP + Cs = 147
PSOE + P = 124
If the gap is maintained, it will be a PP minority government
PP + Cs = 155
PSOE + P = 135
Way off the exits!
With 7.12% of votes counted, the PP wins the elections. The first official figures show Rajoy’s party winning 119 seats, followed by the Socialists with 98. Podemos gets 38 seats, but its sister groups get another 23 seats. Ciudadanos is running fourth with 26 deputies."
http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/12/18/media/1450434499_422758.html?id_externo_rsoc=TW_CM
Should cabinet ministers be allowed to campaign against the government's own negotiating results ?
Watch the fun ! And, of course, the Tory party is totally united on...........
It's way low even for a minority one, I think a second election will be due.