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SystemSystem Posts: 12,293
edited 2015 20 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Pulpstar on the Republican Nomination

The GOP race for the White House is utterly fascinating, and represents a proper betting contest rather than the 1-10 shot Hilary Clinton is in the Democrat race.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    1st
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Trump, Trump, Trump, the guys are marching
    to the polling station now,
    and the only way they'll vote,
    being there or on remote,
    is to X next to Trump and take a bow.
  • TomTom Posts: 273
    Early turnout looks good for podemos beating psoe. Up in Madrid and valencia, well down in Andalusia.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,137
    Mr. Tom, when do the results start rolling in?

    Mr. Pulpstar, interesting piece, though I don't have a dog in the race. Not long until Iowa.

    F1: some reckon we'll get a decision on coverage soon, given it's SPOTY tonight (and the BBC might be holding back an announcement because axing F1 coverage a day before Hamilton might won SPOTY again would perhaps be something they wish to avoid).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Tom, when do the results start rolling in?

    Mr. Pulpstar, interesting piece, though I don't have a dog in the race. Not long until Iowa.

    F1: some reckon we'll get a decision on coverage soon, given it's SPOTY tonight (and the BBC might be holding back an announcement because axing F1 coverage a day before Hamilton might won SPOTY again would perhaps be something they wish to avoid).

    I thought it was reported in the press the other day, ITV had picked up the BBC rights?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,137
    Mr. Urquhart, there has been a lot of speculation about that.

    Provided there are no in-race adverts [or Legard commentary], I wouldn't mind.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,842
    Tom said:

    Early turnout looks good for podemos beating psoe. Up in Madrid and valencia, well down in Andalusia.

    Barcelona and the rest of Catalonia could be very big for Podemos and Cs. Madrid may well be very good for Cs. Low turnout in Andalucia may reflect the fall in the PP vote there. They did very badly there in the recent regional election.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,842
    Generally speaking, the higher the turnout in Spain the better it is likely to be for Cs and Podemos.
  • TomTom Posts: 273
    I think Rcs said on the other thread that there'd be exit polls at 7pm Spanish time when the polls close. They reported turnout half an hour ago and there are some maps knocking about on twitter showing it by province. High turnouts in cities will probably up podemos/ciudadanos shares but Madrid has traditionally been good for PP as well. Also highlight previously discussed likelihood of higher shares of seats than votes for PP.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,137
    Mr. Tom, cheers.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,842
    Tom said:

    I think Rcs said on the other thread that there'd be exit polls at 7pm Spanish time when the polls close. They reported turnout half an hour ago and there are some maps knocking about on twitter showing it by province. High turnouts in cities will probably up podemos/ciudadanos shares but Madrid has traditionally been good for PP as well. Also highlight previously discussed likelihood of higher shares of seats than votes for PP.

    From what I can make out overall turnout is so far down slightly on the last election.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited 2015 20
    The state polls won't start to matter more than the national polls until about new years day, simply because there will be more national polls conducted up till that point than Iowa and N.H polls, so if there is any sudden movement we would see it in national polls first, however that's only for the next 2 weeks or so.

    Remember, primaries are all all about momentum, so it's crucial that the candidates win either Iowa or N.H., or at least S.Carolina if they are desperate in order to avoid being called "losers".
    Talking about S.Carolina, Iowa and N.H, new state polls from CBS/Yougov:

    S.Carolina
    Trump 38 +3
    Cruz 23+10
    Rubio 12 -4
    Carson 9 -10

    Iowa
    Cruz 40 +19
    Trump 31 +1
    Rubio 12 +1
    Carson 6 -13

    N.H
    Trump 32 0
    Cruz 14 +4
    Rubio 13 0
    Christie 11 +6

    In all 3 Trump has stalled in the 30's, and Cruz's surge is proportional to Carson's collapse, so Cruz's chances are in direct proportion to the religious vote which is why he does so well in Iowa, but less so out of Iowa.
    But the bookies favourite, Rubio is not only not doing great but also going backwards in some cases.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,598
    edited 2015 20
    Convincing analysis, thanks Pulpstar. My only reservation about the implication that the first three states will point to the winner is that it's very, very unusual to have a dozen candidates still in the running with just over a month to the start. When people start to drop out, it's hard to predict what their supporters will do, especially if they drop with a specific endorsement, which I think is quite likely here - both because the retiree will want to get brownie points with a potential winner and because the "Stop Trump" instinct may be strong among most establishment candidates. The first states may sort out who the anti-Trump is, and he might then surge on a wave of endorsements even if Trump got a hat-trick on the first three.

    Might! As you say, fascinating.
  • TomTom Posts: 273
    SouthamObserver said:

    Tom said:

    I think Rcs said on the other thread that there'd be exit polls at 7pm Spanish time when the polls close. They reported turnout half an hour ago and there are some maps knocking about on twitter showing it by province. High turnouts in cities will probably up podemos/ciudadanos shares but Madrid has traditionally been good for PP as well. Also highlight previously discussed likelihood of higher shares of seats than votes for PP.

    From what I can make out overall turnout is so far down slightly on the last election.

    Yes. Down by a percentage point nationally at 2pm, but ranging from down 7.5% in parts of south to up 1 or 2% in Madrid/valencia.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited 2015 20
    NickPalmer said:

    Convincing analysis, thanks Pulpstar. My only reservation about the implication that the first three states will point to the winner is that it's very, very unusual to have a dozen candidates still in the running with just over a month to the start. When people start to drop out, it's hard to predict what their supporters will do, especially if they drop with a specific endorsement, which I think is quite likely here - both because the retiree will want to get brownie points with a potential winner and because the "Stop Trump" instinct may be strong among most establishment candidates. The first states may sort out who the anti-Trump is, and he might then surge on a wave of endorsements even if Trump got a hat-trick on the first three.

    Might! As you say, fascinating.

    Already the voters have coalesced to a few candidates, the whole idea that once people who poll 0, 1, 2% drop out is going to magically change this, is not accurate.
    The drop outs won't start en mass until after Iowa and N.H. and even in a 2 way race the opinion polls suggest that Trump beats all of them with the exception of Cruz:

    PPP national 2 way race:

    Trump 58%
    Bush 34%

    Cruz 58%
    Carson 26%

    Rubio 46%
    Carson 39%

    Trump 57%
    Carson 34%

    Cruz 48%
    Rubio 34%

    Trump 45%
    Cruz 44%

    Trump 54%
    Rubio 38%

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/12/trump-leads-grows-nationally-41-of-his-voters-want-to-bomb-country-from-aladdin-clinton-maintains-bi.html

    So a "Stop Trump" will be very difficult but not impossible if his challenger is Cruz, but bare in mind momentum, Cruz wins Iowa, Trump N.H., Trump S.C., Trump Nevada, and then it's Super Tuesday.
    It will be on Super Tuesday that we will know for sure who out of Trump Cruz and how soon will be the nominee, but the advantage so far belongs to Trump because the states between Iowa and Super Tuesday are not as religious as Iowa is.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    Speedy said:

    the advantage so far belong to Trump because the states between Iowa and Super Tuesday and not as religious as Iowa is.

    For sure, if you were constructing de novo, get a bigger green on Trump than Cruz.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    If/When Cruz takes Iowa ... that might be a stonking opportunity to back Trump at that point.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,362
    Who does Trump buy off as a running mate?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    the advantage so far belong to Trump because the states between Iowa and Super Tuesday and not as religious as Iowa is.

    For sure, if you were constructing de novo, get a bigger green on Trump than Cruz.
    The calendar always plays a role, Florida last time was a saviour for Romney because it came after his defeat in S.C and after the revelation that he lost in Iowa. And still he almost lost the nomination to Santorum, but he could have easily lost it to Gingrich if Florida was not in the way.
    This time Florida is way after Super Tuesday, and even there Trump beats them all easily, however it might mean that Rubio or Bush remain in the race until they get squashed in their home state.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MarqueeMark said:

    Who does Trump buy off as a running mate?

    Cruz.
    I think they are already in collusion.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited 2015 20
    I still think Christie has an outside shot of taking this.

    He has potential to come a strong 2nd in New Hampshire (after Trump, and following a Cruz/Trump top 2 in Iowa). That could be enough to establish him as the leading Establishment choice. I don't think Cruz will pick up much establishment/mainstream support since he's basically as "extreme" as Trump and has annoyed Republicans in the Senate over the past few years.

    Rubio is in danger of becoming the Rudy Giuliani of this cycle: looks to have a clear path to the nomination on paper, but is sunk by the fact he can't perform in either Iowa or New Hampshire and thus gets written out of the media narrative. I also think Christie, despite having "moderate" policies, has more chance than Rubio of eating into the Trump voter-base, he has the bombastic "strong-man" personality to do it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,362
    Speedy said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Who does Trump buy off as a running mate?

    Cruz.
    I think they are already in collusion.
    Cruz as his Apprentice, huh?

    (I see Arnie has been signed up to front two seasons of the Apprentice in the US....)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,137
    Mr. Mark, will he tell failures their prospects are terminated?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    Real Madrid having a tough game....8-2 up with 20 minutes to go, Bale with 4.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,598
    Speedy said:



    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/12/trump-leads-grows-nationally-41-of-his-voters-want-to-bomb-country-from-aladdin-clinton-maintains-bi.html

    So a "Stop Trump" will be very difficult but not impossible if his challenger is Cruz, but bare in mind momentum, Cruz wins Iowa, Trump N.H., Trump S.C., Trump Nevada, and then it's Super Tuesday.
    It will be on Super Tuesday that we will know for sure who out of Trump Cruz and how soon will be the nominee, but the advantage so far belongs to Trump because the states between Iowa and Super Tuesday are not as religious as Iowa is.

    Interesting, hadn't seen those 2-way polls. Only cautionary thought is that people may behave differently if their first choice declares that (say) Rubio is Da Man, rather than a neutral question from a pollster.

    Personally I'd like it to be Trump - I don't think he's quite as mad as he pretends, and either he'd give the Democrats a good election or he might positively surprise us. Cruz seems just drearily reactionary, without the flair and hint of potential to surprise that Reagan or McCain had.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,362
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Mark, will he tell failures their prospects are terminated?

    They'll not be back.....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited 2015 20
    https://twitter.com/davidhepworth/status/678581369459499009?s=09

    But at least Liverpool can bounce back next week, it is Leicester City at Anfield. Oh wait...
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Real Madrid having a tough game....8-2 up with 20 minutes to go, Bale with 4.

    Vs just 9 men for much of the game. Even man u might have squeezed a 0-0 against them.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    Heh Nick- I'm glad you've come out in the open because I have some inner liking for Trump- he has a persona that is difficult to ignore, much like Boris in the UK whom I think will be the next leader of the Tory party.

    Trump has spent next to nothing on his campaign, and so uses instead the oxygen of publicity and the sheer force of his personality to rise above the megabucks of the Bush's of the world. For this he has to shoot widely off beam, and continue shooting. But there may well be another dimension somewhere.
    NickPalmer said:

    Speedy said:



    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/12/trump-leads-grows-nationally-41-of-his-voters-want-to-bomb-country-from-aladdin-clinton-maintains-bi.html

    So a "Stop Trump" will be very difficult but not impossible if his challenger is Cruz, but bare in mind momentum, Cruz wins Iowa, Trump N.H., Trump S.C., Trump Nevada, and then it's Super Tuesday.
    It will be on Super Tuesday that we will know for sure who out of Trump Cruz and how soon will be the nominee, but the advantage so far belongs to Trump because the states between Iowa and Super Tuesday are not as religious as Iowa is.

    Interesting, hadn't seen those 2-way polls. Only cautionary thought is that people may behave differently if their first choice declares that (say) Rubio is Da Man, rather than a neutral question from a pollster.

    Personally I'd like it to be Trump - I don't think he's quite as mad as he pretends, and either he'd give the Democrats a good election or he might positively surprise us. Cruz seems just drearily reactionary, without the flair and hint of potential to surprise that Reagan or McCain had.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    With man u, l pool, Everton and Chelsea all busy trying to avoid the champs league this year.. Spurs would surely look good... Leicester, palace and Watford seem out main threats!!!
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    The rise of the little teams in the premiership is one of the great fairytales of modern sport. Watford today, Norwich yesterday.... surprise results that happened occasionally, perhaps once a month, have now become the norm.

    Go the Foxes
    foxinsoxuk said:

    https://twitter.com/davidhepworth/status/678581369459499009?s=09

    But at least Liverpool can bounce back next week, it is Leicester City at Anfield. Oh wait...

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    edited 2015 20
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Real Madrid having a tough game....8-2 up with 20 minutes to go, Bale with 4.

    Vs just 9 men for much of the game. Even man u might have squeezed a 0-0 against them.
    GOAL - Real Madrid 10-2 Rayo Vallecano

    We want 12...Apparently there are 20,000 empty seats today, all missing this goal fest.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    Ed Miliband has vowed to build a “high-ambition coalition” of UK businesses, trade unions and civic society to challenge the government’s “backward” environmental policies.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/dec/20/ed-milband-cross-party-climate-change-coalition-high-ambition

    Yawn....
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    edited 2015 20
    Pulps- excellent roundup comrade. You probably do not realise it, but you write with such an effective simplicity and brevity that is really quite clever and difficult to emulate. Mike Smithson has that ability too- but I think he has a background in journalism.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,362
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Ed Miliband has vowed to build a “high-ambition coalition” of UK businesses, trade unions and civic society to challenge the government’s “backward” environmental policies.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/dec/20/ed-milband-cross-party-climate-change-coalition-high-ambition

    Yawn....

    Who he - Ed?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    Ed Miliband- really, just go away. If he was remotely interested in environmentalism he would not have put have put his stupid ego before anything else, and allowed Labour to be led by someone who was at least electable. Ed Miliband lost the last election- and now we have fracking, loss of subsidies to renewables, badger culling, and soon fox hunting.

    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Ed Miliband has vowed to build a “high-ambition coalition” of UK businesses, trade unions and civic society to challenge the government’s “backward” environmental policies.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/dec/20/ed-milband-cross-party-climate-change-coalition-high-ambition

    Yawn....

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,362
    tyson said:


    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.

    So THAT explains the state of his front doorstep.....

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,137
    Mr. Tyson, on badgers: there are other legitimate reasons to cull them (likewise, deer ought to be reduced). Badgers have no natural predators in the UK and their excessive numbers are putting hedgehogs into some difficulty (I think their diets overlap, and badgers even eat hedgehogs in rare instances).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,161
    edited 2015 20
    Spanish election lovers, here is a list of provinces of Spain, with the number of deputies. 
    Almería			6
    Araba - Álava	4
    Asturias		8
    Ávila			3
    Badajoz			6
    Baleares		8
    Barcelona		31
    Burgos			4
    Cáceres			4
    Cádiz			8
    Castelló		5
    Ceuta			1
    Ciudad Real		5
    Córdoba			6
    Cuenca			3
    Girona			6
    Granada			7
    Guadalajara		3
    Guipúzcoa		6
    Huelva			5
    Huesca			3
    Jaén			6
    La Rioja		4
    Las Palmas		8
    León			5
    Lleida			5
    Lugo			4
    Madrid			36
    Malaga			10
    Melilla			1
    Murcia			10
    Navarra			5
    Orense			4
    Palencia		3
    Pontevedra		7
    Salamanca		4
    Tenerife		7
    Santander		5
    Segovia			3
    Sevilla			12
    Soria			2
    Tarragona		6
    Teruel			3
    Toledo			6
    Valencia		16
    Valladolid		5
    Vizcaya			8
    Zamora			3
    Zaragoza		7
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    The GOP mainstream, and bear in mind it got itself an acceptable candidate in the last two selection processes, has 3 choices:

    Rubio
    Bush

    and curiously still, Chris Christie

    Its going to need to pick one in due course.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited 2015 20
    tyson said:

    Ed Miliband- really, just go away. If he was remotely interested in environmentalism he would not have put have put his stupid ego before anything else, and allowed Labour to be led by someone who was at least electable. Ed Miliband lost the last election- and now we have fracking, loss of subsidies to renewables, badger culling, and soon fox hunting.

    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.

    Wow, you're a disgrace to humanity.

    Badgers are the enemy, they have only one goal - the extermination of human life. They are at it constantly, attacking people, trying to gain the upper hand. And idiots like you make apologies for them. When they aren't attacking people directly, they are spreading disease, destroying property or filling people's heads with their annoying, impossible to forget theme songs.

    The world will be a better place when ever badger has been exterminated. It's survival of the fittest, us or them.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    MarqueeMark said:

    tyson said:


    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.

    So THAT explains the state of his front doorstep.....

    You should see the dead animals that have been laid at Dave's doorstep
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,143
    Now looks like the bomb scare which forced the plane flying from Mauritius to Paris to make an emergency landing was a hoax, just glad it did not happen on my plane back from the island just over a week ago
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-35144471
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,143
    On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    edited 2015 20
    What do you think about human being Mr Morris? You talk about excessive numbers, no natural predators, impact on the environment. I f we wren't at the top of the food chain, how would we be categorised?

    Because we are the top of the food chain, we can cull, invade, degrade environments, destroy oceans and ecosystems, pollute, spoil, and generally consume everything until we have ruined all and sundry.

    And we have the cheek to complain about a poxy few thousand badger that dare to encroach (questionably) over our our barbarous meat industry; we humans who use sentient mammals to butcher and eat, filling them with antibiotics to fatten them and fertilise them- sentient mammals that fear death as much as any mammal, but are produced, fattened and slaughtered for a human taste that doesn't need to eat them.
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Tyson, on badgers: there are other legitimate reasons to cull them (likewise, deer ought to be reduced). Badgers have no natural predators in the UK and their excessive numbers are putting hedgehogs into some difficulty (I think their diets overlap, and badgers even eat hedgehogs in rare instances).

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    Back on topic, that analysis is spot on- and it all turns on whether the establishment can fall in line behind Cruz, and if they do, whether that stops Trump. I got out of Rubio in the last couple of weeks
    HYUFD said:

    On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited 2015 20
    MarqueeMark said:

    Speedy said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Who does Trump buy off as a running mate?

    Cruz.
    I think they are already in collusion.
    Cruz as his Apprentice, huh?

    (I see Arnie has been signed up to front two seasons of the Apprentice in the US....)
    Well the NIxon rule of picking your VP is simple:
    The VP is your life insurance, so that your enemies think again before they get rid of you by impeachment or assassination if the next in line is even worse than you are.

    So sure a President Trump might be appalling, but a President Cruz in case something happens to President Trump wouldn't be any better, in fact it could be worse especially on social policies.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tyson said:



    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.


    What is your solution to bovine TB?

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited 2015 20
    HYUFD said:

    On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast

    The only problem that Cruz has in Iowa presently is this one:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-17/cruz-out-of-sync-on-ethanol-with-likely-republican-caucus-goers-in-iowa-poll


    "The federal Renewable Fuel Standard, which sets the minimum amount of ethanol and other biofuels that must be included in the nation's gasoline supply, is supported by 61 percent of those planning to participate as Republicans in the first-in-the-nation caucuses on Feb. 1. The junior senator from Texas opposes the standard, a view shared by slightly more than one-third of Republicans surveyed.
    Cruz's position, which is drawing a sustained attack against him from a pro-ethanol group trying to influence the caucuses, could threaten his standing as the Republican front-runner in a state that's key to his potential path to the nomination. Iowa is the nation's top corn and ethanol producer."

    Ethanol subsidies are very popular with farmers especially in Iowa, so that will put a limit to his support, although it's already large enough to win Iowa.
    Who knows, it may become an issue in January, that's why I'll wait a bit to be sure that Cruz is not another flavour of the month.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,161
    Charles said:

    tyson said:



    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.


    What is your solution to bovine TB?

    A naked Ed Miliband, armed only with a scimitar, should prowl the countryside night after night looking for infected badgers, and then engaging them n combat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,143
    tyson said:

    Back on topic, that analysis is spot on- and it all turns on whether the establishment can fall in line behind Cruz, and if they do, whether that stops Trump. I got out of Rubio in the last couple of weeks

    HYUFD said:

    On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast

    Agree entirely but while the GOP establishment would likely back Cruz over Trump they have deep reservations about whether he could beat Hillary either
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,143
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast

    The only problem that Cruz has in Iowa presently is this one:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-17/cruz-out-of-sync-on-ethanol-with-likely-republican-caucus-goers-in-iowa-poll


    "The federal Renewable Fuel Standard, which sets the minimum amount of ethanol and other biofuels that must be included in the nation's gasoline supply, is supported by 61 percent of those planning to participate as Republicans in the first-in-the-nation caucuses on Feb. 1. The junior senator from Texas opposes the standard, a view shared by slightly more than one-third of Republicans surveyed.
    Cruz's position, which is drawing a sustained attack against him from a pro-ethanol group trying to influence the caucuses, could threaten his standing as the Republican front-runner in a state that's key to his potential path to the nomination. Iowa is the nation's top corn and ethanol producer."

    Ethanol subsidies are very popular with farmers especially in Iowa, so that will put a limit to his support, although it's already large enough to win Iowa.
    Who knows, it may become an issue in January, that's why I'll wait a bit to be sure that Cruz is not another flavour of the month.
    Maybe, but Cruz seems to have now locked up the evangelical vote
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Charles said:

    tyson said:



    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.


    What is your solution to bovine TB?

    As someone deep in the heart of the affected counties I really get fed up with these bloody hand wringers. At least they can "wring away" from southern Italy well clear of the implications and daily problems without having to face up to the outcomes daily as herds are literally wiped out.

    Cows have right to you know. .....

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    tyson said:



    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.


    What is your solution to bovine TB?

    A naked Ed Miliband, armed only with a scimitar, should prowl the countryside night after night looking for infected badgers, and then engaging them n combat.
    Surely we should send out Jezza with a stiff letter of rebuke to deal with the badger menace?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,137
    Mr. Tyson, a year or two ago there was a lengthy but interesting video of a statistician's presentation about population numbers. In short, they're forecast to rise a bit more, then plateau.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,161
    foxinsoxuk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    tyson said:



    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.


    What is your solution to bovine TB?

    A naked Ed Miliband, armed only with a scimitar, should prowl the countryside night after night looking for infected badgers, and then engaging them n combat.
    Surely we should send out Jezza with a stiff letter of rebuke to deal with the badger menace?
    There's a game show there.

    Politicians vs Badgers
    In a cage
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    edited 2015 20
    Do you need me to answer that one? Eating red meat, apart from the cruelty to the animals themselves, represents environmentalism vandalism and is just plain bad for human beings health- we are not designed to digest a product that takes hours for us to digest.

    Human beings justify anything if they want to- so rearing and slaughtering sentient mammals for no other reason than an unnecessary human taste strikes me as one of our very cruellest, and repulsive habits.

    Our sense of selfishness, lack of care to the environment, and utter disregard to other mammals will not last forever. In the future eating meat will be seen as utterly repellant and barbaric.

    We have the choice not to eat meat. We have the choice what to eat and what not to eat. That is what puts us on top of the food chain and future generation will deservedly look at us in a really quite horrific way. That is, if our selfishness, cruelty and barbarism hasn't led to our destruction first.
    Charles said:

    tyson said:



    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.


    What is your solution to bovine TB?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,143
    edited 2015 20
    Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus CBS News/YouGov
    Cruz 40, Trump 31, Rubio 12, Carson 6, Bush 2, Paul 2, Fiorina 2, Huckabee 2, Christie 1, Kasich 1, Santorum 1, Pataki 0, Graham 0 Cruz +9

    New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary
    CBS News/YouGov Trump 32, Cruz 14, Rubio 13, Christie 11, Bush 6, Kasich 8, Carson 5, Fiorina 4, Paul 5, Huckabee 0, Pataki 0, Graham 0, Santorum 0 Trump +18

    South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary
    CBS News/YouGov Trump 38, Cruz 23, Rubio 12, Carson 9, Bush 7, Paul 4, Christie 1, Fiorina 1, Graham 1, Kasich 2, Huckabee 1, Santorum 0, Pataki 0
    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/iowa-boosts-cruz-trump-stays-atop-new-hampshire-south-carolina/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,052
    tyson said:

    . That is, if our selfishness, cruelty and barbarism hasn't led to our destruction first.

    Charles said:

    tyson said:



    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.


    What is your solution to bovine TB?

    Well, it has led to our survival and success to date, but I take the point that certain attributes can become destructuve. You're probably not a fan of that outlet that sells exotic meats, Kezie Foods, I imagine.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited 2015 20
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast

    The only problem that Cruz has in Iowa presently is this one:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-17/cruz-out-of-sync-on-ethanol-with-likely-republican-caucus-goers-in-iowa-poll


    "The federal Renewable Fuel Standard, which sets the minimum amount of ethanol and other biofuels that must be included in the nation's gasoline supply, is supported by 61 percent of those planning to participate as Republicans in the first-in-the-nation caucuses on Feb. 1. The junior senator from Texas opposes the standard, a view shared by slightly more than one-third of Republicans surveyed.
    Cruz's position, which is drawing a sustained attack against him from a pro-ethanol group trying to influence the caucuses, could threaten his standing as the Republican front-runner in a state that's key to his potential path to the nomination. Iowa is the nation's top corn and ethanol producer."

    Ethanol subsidies are very popular with farmers especially in Iowa, so that will put a limit to his support, although it's already large enough to win Iowa.
    Who knows, it may become an issue in January, that's why I'll wait a bit to be sure that Cruz is not another flavour of the month.
    Maybe, but Cruz seems to have now locked up the evangelical vote
    Indeed but I'll wait a little, since Cruz has not been tested yet in the national spotlight and not many of his policies or positions are well known yet, also that Ethanol group attacking Cruz is not any group:

    " America’s Renewable Future, a bipartisan political group led by Eric Branstad, the son of Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, is running a sweeping media campaign in Iowa to criticize Cruz. The senator has opposed the Renewable Fuel Standard but has favored some subsidies for oil companies. The oil industry and other groups in Washington who have pushed to overhaul or end the mandate have seen legislation stall in Congress."

    http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2015/12/17/iowa-poll-caucusgoers-favor-ethanol-mandate/77370882/?from=global&sessionKey=&autologin=

    Terry Branstad is not any governor, he's the longest serving governor in american history, with a nickname "the King of Iowa".
    The reason why flavours of the month deflate is that as they surge in the polls scrutiny and attention also surges, if they pass that initial phase all is well (like Trump), if not they deflate as fast as their surge ( Walker, Carson, Bush, Perry, Cain, Gingrich, Bachmann etc).
    I'll wait a little to see if Cruz can withstand that initial wave.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    tyson said:



    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.


    What is your solution to bovine TB?

    A naked Ed Miliband, armed only with a scimitar, should prowl the countryside night after night looking for infected badgers, and then engaging them n combat.
    I think a naked Ed Miliband would encourage the badgers to flee, thereby encouraging spread of the disease*



    * (to clarify, I mean bovine TB, not naked Ed Milibands)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    HYUFD said:

    Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus CBS News/YouGov
    Cruz 40, Trump 31, Rubio 12, Carson 6, Bush 2, Paul 2, Fiorina 2, Huckabee 2, Christie 1, Kasich 1, Santorum 1, Pataki 0, Graham 0 Cruz +9

    New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary
    CBS News/YouGov Trump 32, Cruz 14, Rubio 13, Christie 11, Bush 6, Kasich 8, Carson 5, Fiorina 4, Paul 5, Huckabee 0, Pataki 0, Graham 0, Santorum 0 Trump +18

    South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary
    CBS News/YouGov Trump 38, Cruz 23, Rubio 12, Carson 9, Bush 7, Paul 4, Christie 1, Fiorina 1, Graham 1, Kasich 2, Huckabee 1, Santorum 0, Pataki 0
    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/iowa-boosts-cruz-trump-stays-atop-new-hampshire-south-carolina/

    Bush sub Kasich in New Hampshire. LOL
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tyson said:

    Do you need me to answer that one? Eating red meat, apart from the cruelty to the animals themselves, represents environmentalism vandalism and is just plain bad for human beings health- we are not designed to digest a product that takes hours for us to digest.

    Human beings justify anything if they want to- so rearing and slaughtering sentient mammals for no other reason than an unnecessary human taste strikes me as one of our very cruellest, and repulsive habits.

    Our sense of selfishness, lack of care to the environment, and utter disregard to other mammals will not last forever. In the future eating meat will be seen as utterly repellant and barbaric.

    We have the choice not to eat meat. We have the choice what to eat and what not to eat. That is what puts us on top of the food chain and future generation will deservedly look at us in a really quite horrific way. That is, if our selfishness, cruelty and barbarism hasn't led to our destruction first.

    Charles said:

    tyson said:



    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.


    What is your solution to bovine TB?

    So, until the world turns and is remade anew, you want cows to suffer greatly from disease?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,161
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    tyson said:



    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.


    What is your solution to bovine TB?

    A naked Ed Miliband, armed only with a scimitar, should prowl the countryside night after night looking for infected badgers, and then engaging them n combat.
    I think a naked Ed Miliband would encourage the badgers to flee, thereby encouraging spread of the disease*



    * (to clarify, I mean bovine TB, not naked Ed Milibands)
    I clearly have a better opinion of badgers' bravery than you do.

    I think they would do their duty and attack.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,739
    tyson said:

    Do you need me to answer that one? Eating red meat, apart from the cruelty to the animals themselves, represents environmentalism vandalism and is just plain bad for human beings health- we are not designed to digest a product that takes hours for us to digest.

    Human beings justify anything if they want to- so rearing and slaughtering sentient mammals for no other reason than an unnecessary human taste strikes me as one of our very cruellest, and repulsive habits.

    Our sense of selfishness, lack of care to the environment, and utter disregard to other mammals will not last forever. In the future eating meat will be seen as utterly repellant and barbaric.

    We have the choice not to eat meat. We have the choice what to eat and what not to eat. That is what puts us on top of the food chain and future generation will deservedly look at us really quite horrific. That is, if our selfishness, cruelty and barbarism hasn't led to our destruction first.

    Charles said:

    tyson said:



    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.


    What is your solution to bovine TB?

    Rubbish. We are omnivores. We secrete specific enzymes designed to break down meat - indeed the lack of such enzymes in some people is a recognised medical condition. We have a colon which in length is halfway between herbivores and carnivores and we have teeth designed for eating meat.

    You can have your weird moral objections to meat eating but they have no basis in fact.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    tyson said:



    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.


    What is your solution to bovine TB?

    A naked Ed Miliband, armed only with a scimitar, should prowl the countryside night after night looking for infected badgers, and then engaging them n combat.
    I think a naked Ed Miliband would encourage the badgers to flee, thereby encouraging spread of the disease*



    * (to clarify, I mean bovine TB, not naked Ed Milibands)
    I clearly have a better opinion of badgers' bravery than you do.

    I think they would do their duty and attack.
    I don't know. I'm pretty brave (well averagely so, and not tested under fire) and I wouldn't want to get into a tangle with that
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,143
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus CBS News/YouGov
    Cruz 40, Trump 31, Rubio 12, Carson 6, Bush 2, Paul 2, Fiorina 2, Huckabee 2, Christie 1, Kasich 1, Santorum 1, Pataki 0, Graham 0 Cruz +9

    New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary
    CBS News/YouGov Trump 32, Cruz 14, Rubio 13, Christie 11, Bush 6, Kasich 8, Carson 5, Fiorina 4, Paul 5, Huckabee 0, Pataki 0, Graham 0, Santorum 0 Trump +18

    South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary
    CBS News/YouGov Trump 38, Cruz 23, Rubio 12, Carson 9, Bush 7, Paul 4, Christie 1, Fiorina 1, Graham 1, Kasich 2, Huckabee 1, Santorum 0, Pataki 0
    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/iowa-boosts-cruz-trump-stays-atop-new-hampshire-south-carolina/

    Bush sub Kasich in New Hampshire. LOL
    Yes, now just a matter of when he drops out, not whether he drops out
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast

    The only problem that Cruz has in Iowa presently is this one:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-17/cruz-out-of-sync-on-ethanol-with-likely-republican-caucus-goers-in-iowa-poll


    "The federal Renewable Fuel Standard, which sets the minimum amount of ethanol and other biofuels that must be included in the nation's gasoline supply, is supported by 61 percent of those planning to participate as Republicans in the first-in-the-nation caucuses on Feb. 1. The junior senator from Texas opposes the standard, a view shared by slightly more than one-third of Republicans surveyed.
    Cruz's position, which is drawing a sustained attack against him from a pro-ethanol group trying to influence the caucuses, could threaten his standing as the Republican front-runner in a state that's key to his potential path to the nomination. Iowa is the nation's top corn and ethanol producer."

    Ethanol subsidies are very popular with farmers especially in Iowa, so that will put a limit to his support, although it's already large enough to win Iowa.
    Who knows, it may become an issue in January, that's why I'll wait a bit to be sure that Cruz is not another flavour of the month.
    Arnold Vinick came out against ethanol subsidies and still got the nomination :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,143
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast

    The only problem that Cruz has in Iowa presently is this one:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-17/cruz-out-of-sync-on-ethanol-with-likely-republican-caucus-goers-in-iowa-poll


    "The federal Renewable Fuel Standard, which sets the minimum amount of ethanol and other biofuels that must be included in the nation's gasoline supply, is supported by 61 percent of those planning to participate as Republicans in the first-in-the-nation caucuses on Feb. 1. The junior senator from Texas opposes the standard, a view shared by slightly more than one-third of Republicans surveyed.
    Cruz's position, which is drawing a sustained attack against him from a pro-ethanol group trying to influence the caucuses, could threaten his standing as the Republican front-runner in a state that's key to his potential path to the nomination. Iowa is the nation's top corn and ethanol producer."

    Ethanol subsidies are very popular with farmers especially in Iowa, so that will put a limit to his support, although it's already large enough to win Iowa.
    Who knows, it may become an issue in January, that's why I'll wait a bit to be sure that Cruz is not another flavour of the month.
    Maybe, but Cruz seems to have now locked up the evangelical vote
    Indeed but I'll wait a little, since Cruz has not been tested yet in the national spotlight and not

    http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2015/12/17/iowa-poll-caucusgoers-favor-ethanol-mandate/77370882/?from=global&sessionKey=&autologin=

    Terry Branstad is not any governor, he's the longest serving governor in american history, with a nickname "the King of Iowa".
    The reason why flavours of the month deflate is that as they surge in the polls scrutiny and attention also surges, if they pass that initial phase all is well (like Trump), if not they deflate as fast as their surge ( Walker, Carson, Bush, Perry, Cain, Gingrich, Bachmann etc).
    I'll wait a little to see if Cruz can withstand that initial wave.
    Perhaps but as Rubio has also opposed ethanol subsidies he does not stand to benefit either, Trump has backed them however so that would be his best chance of a hat trick of the early states
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited 2015 20
    tyson said:

    Do you need me to answer that one? Eating red meat, apart from the cruelty to the animals themselves, represents environmentalism vandalism and is just plain bad for human beings health- we are not designed to digest a product that takes hours for us to digest.

    Human beings justify anything if they want to- so rearing and slaughtering sentient mammals for no other reason than an unnecessary human taste strikes me as one of our very cruellest, and repulsive habits.

    Our sense of selfishness, lack of care to the environment, and utter disregard to other mammals will not last forever. In the future eating meat will be seen as utterly repellant and barbaric.

    We have the choice not to eat meat. We have the choice what to eat and what not to eat. That is what puts us on top of the food chain and future generation will deservedly look at us in a really quite horrific way. That is, if our selfishness, cruelty and barbarism hasn't led to our destruction first.

    Charles said:

    tyson said:



    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.


    What is your solution to bovine TB?

    We can try fish, though that has other issues like mercury poisoning.
    However we still need a good source of protein, and meat doesn't grow like vegetables, although some tried to make a joke about the Tomeato, a half meat half vegetable thing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    Y0kel said:

    The GOP mainstream, and bear in mind it got itself an acceptable candidate in the last two selection processes, has 3 choices:

    Rubio
    Bush

    and curiously still, Chris Christie

    Its going to need to pick one in due course.

    The beauty is that Ted Cruz probably wins Iowa, so presents himself as the obvious "Stop Trump" candidate.

    You really couldn't plan the GOP race any better for the democrats.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    What rights do cows have? Dairy herds are force fed steroids and antibiotics, artificially inseminated and subsequent calves killed to produce unsuckled milk and veal. Then, the cows too are sickeningly slaughtered when they get old and their flesh grinded into low grade meat.

    I don't think even the sickest, torture porn film depicting the vilest actions of humans treating other humans could quite capture the sickening cruelty and barbarism that is taken as given in the meat industry.
    Moses_ said:

    Charles said:

    tyson said:



    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.


    What is your solution to bovine TB?

    As someone deep in the heart of the affected counties I really get fed up with these bloody hand wringers. At least they can "wring away" from southern Italy well clear of the implications and daily problems without having to face up to the outcomes daily as herds are literally wiped out.

    Cows have right to you know. .....

  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    kle4 said:

    tyson said:

    . That is, if our selfishness, cruelty and barbarism hasn't led to our destruction first.

    Charles said:

    tyson said:



    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.


    What is your solution to bovine TB?

    Well, it has led to our survival and success to date, but I take the point that certain attributes can become destructuve. You're probably not a fan of that outlet that sells exotic meats, Kezie Foods, I imagine.
    WTF, how is Reindeer more expensive than Waygu beef?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,161
    Re Spain:

    I've been running a simulation based around the PP on 29%, and I get them on 120-125 seats, with almost half of their seats coming from them dominating the smaller provinces.

    The interesting question is for places like Guadalajara, Avila and the like, who gets the third seat? I'd assumed it would be PSOE, but it might be Podemos.

    Citizens polls very poorly in rural Spain, so they are lucky - in a way - not to get have too many wasted votes. If Podemos is third, but scoring 20% in rural provinces, then a large portion of their votes are going to go unrewarded.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus CBS News/YouGov
    Cruz 40, Trump 31, Rubio 12, Carson 6, Bush 2, Paul 2, Fiorina 2, Huckabee 2, Christie 1, Kasich 1, Santorum 1, Pataki 0, Graham 0 Cruz +9

    New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary
    CBS News/YouGov Trump 32, Cruz 14, Rubio 13, Christie 11, Bush 6, Kasich 8, Carson 5, Fiorina 4, Paul 5, Huckabee 0, Pataki 0, Graham 0, Santorum 0 Trump +18

    South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary
    CBS News/YouGov Trump 38, Cruz 23, Rubio 12, Carson 9, Bush 7, Paul 4, Christie 1, Fiorina 1, Graham 1, Kasich 2, Huckabee 1, Santorum 0, Pataki 0
    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/iowa-boosts-cruz-trump-stays-atop-new-hampshire-south-carolina/

    Bush sub Kasich in New Hampshire. LOL
    Yes, now just a matter of when he drops out, not whether he drops out
    After New Hampshire methinks.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,161
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    tyson said:



    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.


    What is your solution to bovine TB?

    A naked Ed Miliband, armed only with a scimitar, should prowl the countryside night after night looking for infected badgers, and then engaging them n combat.
    I think a naked Ed Miliband would encourage the badgers to flee, thereby encouraging spread of the disease*



    * (to clarify, I mean bovine TB, not naked Ed Milibands)
    I clearly have a better opinion of badgers' bravery than you do.

    I think they would do their duty and attack.
    I don't know. I'm pretty brave (well averagely so, and not tested under fire) and I wouldn't want to get into a tangle with that
    What's so scary about Ed Miliband?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Freggles said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast

    The only problem that Cruz has in Iowa presently is this one:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-17/cruz-out-of-sync-on-ethanol-with-likely-republican-caucus-goers-in-iowa-poll


    "The federal Renewable Fuel Standard, which sets the minimum amount of ethanol and other biofuels that must be included in the nation's gasoline supply, is supported by 61 percent of those planning to participate as Republicans in the first-in-the-nation caucuses on Feb. 1. The junior senator from Texas opposes the standard, a view shared by slightly more than one-third of Republicans surveyed.
    Cruz's position, which is drawing a sustained attack against him from a pro-ethanol group trying to influence the caucuses, could threaten his standing as the Republican front-runner in a state that's key to his potential path to the nomination. Iowa is the nation's top corn and ethanol producer."

    Ethanol subsidies are very popular with farmers especially in Iowa, so that will put a limit to his support, although it's already large enough to win Iowa.
    Who knows, it may become an issue in January, that's why I'll wait a bit to be sure that Cruz is not another flavour of the month.
    Arnold Vinick came out against ethanol subsidies and still got the nomination :)
    Focus people, focus.
    This is not a fantasy of some scriptwriter in the 2000's, this is the real thing, not west wing.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,105
    rcs1000 said:



    A naked Ed Miliband, armed only with a scimitar, should prowl the countryside night after night looking for infected badgers, and then engaging them n combat.

    I wager 400 quatloos on the newcomer
  • TomTom Posts: 273
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Real Madrid having a tough game....8-2 up with 20 minutes to go, Bale with 4.

    Vs just 9 men for much of the game. Even man u might have squeezed a 0-0 against them.
    GOAL - Real Madrid 10-2 Rayo Vallecano

    We want 12...Apparently there are 20,000 empty seats today, all missing this goal fest.
    Is this a foretelling a shocking upset with PP thrashing Podemos in Madrid (Vallecas is the radical left suburb of Madrid)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,143
    edited 2015 20
    Speedy said:

    Freggles said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast

    The only problem that Cruz has in Iowa presently is this one:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-17/cruz-out-of-sync-on-ethanol-with-likely-republican-caucus-goers-in-iowa-poll


    "The federal Renewable Fuel Standard, which sets the minimum amount of ethanol and other biofuels that must be included in the nation's gasoline supply, is supported by 61 percent of those planning to participate as Republicans in the first-in-the-nation caucuses on Feb. 1. The junior senator from Texas opposes the standard, a view shared by slightly more than one-third of Republicans surveyed.
    Cruz's position, which is drawing a sustained attack against him from a pro-ethanol group trying to influence the caucuses, could threaten his standing as the Republican front-runner in a state that's key to his potential path to the nomination. Iowa is the nation's top corn and ethanol producer."

    Ethanol subsidies are very popular with farmers especially in Iowa, so that will put a limit to his support, although it's already large enough to win Iowa.
    Who knows, it may become an issue in January, that's why I'll wait a bit to be sure that Cruz is not another flavour of the month.
    Arnold Vinick came out against ethanol subsidies and still got the nomination :)
    Focus people, focus.
    This is not a fantasy of some scriptwriter in the 2000's, this is the real thing, not west wing.
    Former Speaker Glen Walken won the Iowa caucuses not Vinick, though Vinick won New Hampshire
    http://westwing.wikia.com/wiki/United_States_Presidential_Election_(2006)
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    rcs1000 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    tyson said:



    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.


    What is your solution to bovine TB?

    A naked Ed Miliband, armed only with a scimitar, should prowl the countryside night after night looking for infected badgers, and then engaging them n combat.
    Surely we should send out Jezza with a stiff letter of rebuke to deal with the badger menace?
    There's a game show there.

    Politicians vs Badgers
    In a cage
    Not in a cage.

    It needs to be played on a field with goalposts.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'You can have your weird moral objections to meat eating but they have no basis in fact'

    There is as much point arguing with vegetarians as there is with Jehovah's Witnesses
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,105
    Danny565 said:

    I still think Christie has an outside shot of taking this.

    He has potential to come a strong 2nd in New Hampshire (after Trump, and following a Cruz/Trump top 2 in Iowa). That could be enough to establish him as the leading Establishment choice. I don't think Cruz will pick up much establishment/mainstream support since he's basically as "extreme" as Trump and has annoyed Republicans in the Senate over the past few years.

    Rubio is in danger of becoming the Rudy Giuliani of this cycle: looks to have a clear path to the nomination on paper, but is sunk by the fact he can't perform in either Iowa or New Hampshire and thus gets written out of the media narrative. I also think Christie, despite having "moderate" policies, has more chance than Rubio of eating into the Trump voter-base, he has the bombastic "strong-man" personality to do it.

    I adore Chris Christie, and think it's long overdue that POTUS be a fat guy from New Jersey with a background in garbage disposal, a minor indiscretion in bridge funding, a belief in removing state regulation and who knows some guys downtown who can make that problem go away for you. But let's be honest. He is never going to be President.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    The problem with humans is that they don't do anything in moderation such is their greed and gluttony. So meat eating is done everyday, in fact every meal. And so they fill their guts with meat- a gut not intended for digestion of predominantly meat which leads to all kinds of medical issues.

    If we were responsible about eating meat I think my attitudes would change dramatically. But human beings and responsibility appear to have a compatibility problem at the minute.
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    tyson said:

    Do you need me to answer that one? Eating red meat, apart from the cruelty to the animals themselves, represents environmentalism vandalism and is just plain bad for human beings health- we are not designed to digest a product that takes hours for us to digest.

    Human beings justify anything if they want to- so rearing and slaughtering sentient mammals for no other reason than an unnecessary human taste strikes me as one of our very cruellest, and repulsive habits.

    Our sense of selfishness, lack of care to the environment, and utter disregard to other mammals will not last forever. In the future eating meat will be seen as utterly repellant and barbaric.

    We have the choice not to eat meat. We have the choice what to eat and what not to eat. That is what puts us on top of the food chain and future generation will deservedly look at us really quite horrific. That is, if our selfishness, cruelty and barbarism hasn't led to our destruction first.

    Charles said:

    tyson said:



    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.


    What is your solution to bovine TB?

    Rubbish. We are omnivores. We secrete specific enzymes designed to break down meat - indeed the lack of such enzymes in some people is a recognised medical condition. We have a colon which in length is halfway between herbivores and carnivores and we have teeth designed for eating meat.

    You can have your weird moral objections to meat eating but they have no basis in fact.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Two useful spanish election links:

    Official Results
    http://resultadosgenerales2015.interior.es/congreso/#/ES201512-CON-ES/ES

    Spanish TV channel
    http://www.rtve.es/directo/canal-24h/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,052
    edited 2015 20
    runnymede said:

    'You can have your weird moral objections to meat eating but they have no basis in fact'

    There is as much point arguing with vegetarians as there is with Jehovah's Witnesses

    I actually understand the idea future generations might look on us with disgust for eating meat, it crops up in Sci-Fi occasionally, but I cannot say I'm particularly bothered by what future generations will and won't find disgusting. As is often noted on here, there will be many things we consider normal now which will be frowned on in the future. And I'm misanthropic enough to find humanity unpardonable for doing those things now.
  • TomTom Posts: 273
    rcs1000 said:

    Re Spain:

    I've been running a simulation based around the PP on 29%, and I get them on 120-125 seats, with almost half of their seats coming from them dominating the smaller provinces.

    The interesting question is for places like Guadalajara, Avila and the like, who gets the third seat? I'd assumed it would be PSOE, but it might be Podemos.

    Citizens polls very poorly in rural Spain, so they are lucky - in a way - not to get have too many wasted votes. If Podemos is third, but scoring 20% in rural provinces, then a large portion of their votes are going to go unrewarded.

    Thanks, interesting. With the turnouts would have thought podemos has an excellent chance of coming 2nd. Seats must depend on the extent to which they can overhaul PSOE in the south.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,842
    rcs1000 said:

    Re Spain:

    I've been running a simulation based around the PP on 29%, and I get them on 120-125 seats, with almost half of their seats coming from them dominating the smaller provinces.

    The interesting question is for places like Guadalajara, Avila and the like, who gets the third seat? I'd assumed it would be PSOE, but it might be Podemos.

    Citizens polls very poorly in rural Spain, so they are lucky - in a way - not to get have too many wasted votes. If Podemos is third, but scoring 20% in rural provinces, then a large portion of their votes are going to go unrewarded.

    Turnout seems to be up a little bit generally - but down very slightly in Andalucia. Interestingly, turnout in Barcelona is up over 3% compared to 2011. That is probably very good news for Podemos and Cs.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,137
    Mr. Pong, if Miliband can't handle one dead pig, what makes you think he could withstand many live badgers?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Interesting thread btw pulp.

    Thanks
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,161
    Tom said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re Spain:

    I've been running a simulation based around the PP on 29%, and I get them on 120-125 seats, with almost half of their seats coming from them dominating the smaller provinces.

    The interesting question is for places like Guadalajara, Avila and the like, who gets the third seat? I'd assumed it would be PSOE, but it might be Podemos.

    Citizens polls very poorly in rural Spain, so they are lucky - in a way - not to get have too many wasted votes. If Podemos is third, but scoring 20% in rural provinces, then a large portion of their votes are going to go unrewarded.

    Thanks, interesting. With the turnouts would have thought podemos has an excellent chance of coming 2nd. Seats must depend on the extent to which they can overhaul PSOE in the south.
    I suspect that Podemos will pass PSOE in vote share, but will fall short in seats. I think the PSOE organisation is still better outside the cities.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    tyson said:

    What rights do cows have? Dairy herds are force fed steroids and antibiotics, artificially inseminated and subsequent calves killed to produce unsuckled milk and veal. Then, the cows too are sickeningly slaughtered when they get old and their flesh grinded into low grade meat.

    I don't think even the sickest, torture porn film depicting the vilest actions of humans treating other humans could quite capture the sickening cruelty and barbarism that is taken as given in the meat industry.

    Moses_ said:

    Charles said:

    tyson said:



    Every badger that is shot in some misguided attempt to curtail bovine TB, I lay on Miliband's door.


    What is your solution to bovine TB?

    As someone deep in the heart of the affected counties I really get fed up with these bloody hand wringers. At least they can "wring away" from southern Italy well clear of the implications and daily problems without having to face up to the outcomes daily as herds are literally wiped out.

    Cows have right to you know. .....

    Put you down as a "maybe" then?

    Not getting into a debate on this but "sickeningly slaughtered" is a tad over the top. It's probably why your message constantly fails to get through or make an impression. If you stopped using such ludicrous inaccurate rhetoric then you might get taken seriously and be listened too thus actually making a difference.

    For me I am happy to leave this to the local farmers who tend there herds with as much love and devotion as their own families. Badgers are cuddly little things, good in storybooks but in a rural environment they really are just disease carrying vermin.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,105
    Freggles said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast

    The only problem that Cruz has in Iowa presently is this one:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-17/cruz-out-of-sync-on-ethanol-with-likely-republican-caucus-goers-in-iowa-poll


    "The federal Renewable Fuel Standard, which sets the minimum amount of ethanol and other biofuels that must be included in the nation's gasoline supply, is supported by 61 percent of those planning to participate as Republicans in the first-in-the-nation caucuses on Feb. 1. The junior senator from Texas opposes the standard, a view shared by slightly more than one-third of Republicans surveyed.
    Cruz's position, which is drawing a sustained attack against him from a pro-ethanol group trying to influence the caucuses, could threaten his standing as the Republican front-runner in a state that's key to his potential path to the nomination. Iowa is the nation's top corn and ethanol producer."

    Ethanol subsidies are very popular with farmers especially in Iowa, so that will put a limit to his support, although it's already large enough to win Iowa.
    Who knows, it may become an issue in January, that's why I'll wait a bit to be sure that Cruz is not another flavour of the month.
    Arnold Vinick came out against ethanol subsidies and still got the nomination :)
    Yes. That's a great argument apart from two minor points. Firstly, Arnold Vinick is fictional. Secondly, Arnold Vinick is fictional. Now I realize that's just one point but I thought it was so important it was worth repeating.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,161
    viewcode said:

    Freggles said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast

    The only problem that Cruz has in Iowa presently is this one:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-17/cruz-out-of-sync-on-ethanol-with-likely-republican-caucus-goers-in-iowa-poll


    "The federal Renewable Fuel Standard, which sets the minimum amount of ethanol and other biofuels that must be included in the nation's gasoline supply, is supported by 61 percent of those planning to participate as Republicans in the first-in-the-nation caucuses on Feb. 1. The junior senator from Texas opposes the standard, a view shared by slightly more than one-third of Republicans surveyed.
    Cruz's position, which is drawing a sustained attack against him from a pro-ethanol group trying to influence the caucuses, could threaten his standing as the Republican front-runner in a state that's key to his potential path to the nomination. Iowa is the nation's top corn and ethanol producer."

    Ethanol subsidies are very popular with farmers especially in Iowa, so that will put a limit to his support, although it's already large enough to win Iowa.
    Who knows, it may become an issue in January, that's why I'll wait a bit to be sure that Cruz is not another flavour of the month.
    Arnold Vinick came out against ethanol subsidies and still got the nomination :)
    Yes. That's a great argument apart from two minor points. Firstly, Arnold Vinick is fictional. Secondly, Arnold Vinick is fictional. Now I realize that's just one point but I thought it was so important it was worth repeating.
    I'm sorry, but I think you're mistaken.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    viewcode said:

    Freggles said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast

    The only problem that Cruz has in Iowa presently is this one:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-17/cruz-out-of-sync-on-ethanol-with-likely-republican-caucus-goers-in-iowa-poll


    "The federal Renewable Fuel Standard, which sets the minimum amount of ethanol and other biofuels that must be included in the nation's gasoline supply, is supported by 61 percent of those planning to participate as Republicans in the first-in-the-nation caucuses on Feb. 1. The junior senator from Texas opposes the standard, a view shared by slightly more than one-third of Republicans surveyed.
    Cruz's position, which is drawing a sustained attack against him from a pro-ethanol group trying to influence the caucuses, could threaten his standing as the Republican front-runner in a state that's key to his potential path to the nomination. Iowa is the nation's top corn and ethanol producer."

    Ethanol subsidies are very popular with farmers especially in Iowa, so that will put a limit to his support, although it's already large enough to win Iowa.
    Who knows, it may become an issue in January, that's why I'll wait a bit to be sure that Cruz is not another flavour of the month.
    Arnold Vinick came out against ethanol subsidies and still got the nomination :)
    Yes. That's a great argument apart from two minor points. Firstly, Arnold Vinick is fictional. Secondly, Arnold Vinick is fictional. Now I realize that's just one point but I thought it was so important it was worth repeating.
    You forgot a third point which HYUFD pointed at, Vinnick though fictional still lost the Iowa caucuses in fiction-land.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    kle4 said:

    runnymede said:

    'You can have your weird moral objections to meat eating but they have no basis in fact'

    There is as much point arguing with vegetarians as there is with Jehovah's Witnesses

    I actually understand the idea future generations might look on us with disgust for eating meat, it crops up in Sci-Fi occasionally, but I cannot say I'm particularly bothered by what future generations will and won't find disgusting. As is often noted on here, there will be many things we consider normal now which will be frowned on in the future. And I'm misanthropic enough to find humanity unpardonable for doing those things now.
    Will the students of the future be demanding any statues to known meat eaters of the past are ripped down? ;-)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,105
    tyson said:

    The problem with humans is that they don't do anything in moderation such is their greed and gluttony. So meat eating is done everyday, in fact every meal. And so they fill their guts with meat- a gut not intended for digestion of predominantly meat which leads to all kinds of medical issues.

    If we were responsible about eating meat I think my attitudes would change dramatically. But human beings and responsibility appear to have a compatibility problem at the minute.

    I have no problems with vegetarians (I used to be one myself) but the idea that a high-meat diet is bad for you is not really factual. It's inherently low-carb and (if you choose right) low-fat as well. It's not without its flaws (bowel movements on a high-meat diet are...remarkable) but it's not that bad. Avoid lots of turkey, it's very high in cholesterol

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,137
    Mr. Viewcode, turkey is also probably the worst of meats in terms of taste.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,842
    Tom said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re Spain:

    I've been running a simulation based around the PP on 29%, and I get them on 120-125 seats, with almost half of their seats coming from them dominating the smaller provinces.

    The interesting question is for places like Guadalajara, Avila and the like, who gets the third seat? I'd assumed it would be PSOE, but it might be Podemos.

    Citizens polls very poorly in rural Spain, so they are lucky - in a way - not to get have too many wasted votes. If Podemos is third, but scoring 20% in rural provinces, then a large portion of their votes are going to go unrewarded.

    Thanks, interesting. With the turnouts would have thought podemos has an excellent chance of coming 2nd. Seats must depend on the extent to which they can overhaul PSOE in the south.

    The turnouts are pretty much as usual. Madrid, the Castilles and the Valencian provinces usually get the highest; the south, Catalonia and The Basque country the lowest. That is basically what is happening this time as well, it seems, though Catalonia looks to be up around 3% on last time, Andalucia down around 2%. I don't think that there is too much that can be read into any of those figures - except, perhaps, in Catalonia, where a higher turnout is almost certainly going to be very good for Podemos and Cs, as a lot of nationalists never vote in the Spanish elections.

  • CromwellCromwell Posts: 236
    HYUFD said:

    On topic I think it is now likely that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump New Hampshire and they will then battle it out for the nomination, with South Carolina the key, Rubio could still be a force if he comes second in New Hampshire but I think his chances of being the nominee are fading fast

    ---------------------------------------

    Cruz is indeed likely to win Iowa and Trump COULD win NH , but only because the establishment has not yet unified behind their candidate ; when they do it will be the end for Trump who has a low ceiling for votes ..I expect Trump to drop out of the race sometime in about March and then go back to his reality TV shows ....Trumpism is just a load of noise by low information voters ; he is in fact a political version of a WWF star and about just as informed and eloquent !..The GOP will never allow an egotistical creep and ignoramus like Trump to ruin the best chance they have had in many years to win the Presidency

    Marco Rubio is not only going to win the nomination he is very likely to easily defeat Hilary
    Indeed , the race may seem like a maze of twists and turns but in retrospect it will become clear that Rubio was always going to win
    I have bet heavily on Rubio '6-1 back in October but I'm biding my time until March for Rubio's price to fall so I can bet again ...I am confident that he will be the next POTUS
This discussion has been closed.