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  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    UKIP is seen as more or less a shambolic BNP-lite.

    this was the case before Carswell joined, tho.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,754
    MaxPB said:

    Clearly the answer to UKIP's leadership question is Viscount Monckton of Brenchley.

    Loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooool. That's funnier than you'll ever know.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    Scott_P said:

    @patrickwintour: Big hint from Cameron that he is planning referendum next year even if he adds substance is more important than timing.

    Cammers may be planning in: The nation is planning 'Out'. Expect Cameron gone by 01/01/2017. *

    * See my Brent-Crude estimates (and, yes, even my drunken ones)....
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    It's a real shame for "moderate" Eurosceptics (those who don't like ever closer union but eschew Colonel Blimp style xenophobia) that UKIP is seen as more or less a shambolic BNP-lite.

    Right now, more than ever, there needs to be a coherent and reasonable anti-EU movement with a clear message and vision for the UK to be able to choose a positive path other than "ever closer union". Cameron trying to make it all about benefits for Polish plumbers is absurd and almost insulting frankly. It should be about much bigger issues than that, but currently it's not.

    I can see us getting a Scotland style narrowish but still decisive vote to stay in, with most of the votes having been cast by people who have been very poorly served by the politicians in the sense that a proper debate on either side has simply not happened. What a waste.

    but in general I agree. It is a shame. Scotland managed to get people engaged and have debates in village halls and so on. Like, at least in parts a grass-roots, reasonable debate featuring the elecorate. I don't know if there is any of that going on with regards to this referendum
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    If Carswell is able to turn off what little of Short money goes to the main party people, this, combined with 1) UKIP's known cut in donations and 2) UKIPs drop in membership, sets the party up for a major organisational meltdown.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,832
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JakeReesMogg: Douglas Carswell should return to the Conservative benches and continue the Brexit fight from there.

    I think that account is a spoof?

    MP Jacob Rees-Mogg is to continue to be a Twitter refusenik – because a fake account in his name is more entertaining than he could ever be.

    Read more: http://www.bathchronicle.co.uk/MP-Jacob-Rees-Mogg-happy-let-fake-Jake-Twitter/story-19838041-detail/story.html#ixzz3ug6PT4CZ
    Jacob is the parliamentary member for the 18th century and so using Twitter would be impossible for him. A pamphlet perhaps?
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    let them federalise properly.

    isn't that a taboo word? You'll be talking subsidiarity next!

    I'm drafting a pb article that uses the f word.
    how daring! I shall look forward to it
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,812
    Yes, something's got to give. Farage is going nowhere, and I doubt Carswell could be whipped like a spaniel into keeping shtum. Perhaps Carswell could resign as a UKIP member but still retain the party whip in the House; then he could be free to pour vitriol over Nigel whilst still providing UKIP a voice. But then if he stood as an independent in Clacton UKIP would have to give him a free run lest the vote be split. All in all a bit of a pickle!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    let them federalise properly.

    isn't that a taboo word? You'll be talking subsidiarity next!

    I'm drafting a pb article that uses the f word.
    how daring! I shall look forward to it
    The f word being federal, I stress.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    If Carswell is able to turn off what little of Short money goes to the main party people, this, combined with 1) UKIP's known cut in donations and 2) UKIPs drop in membership, sets the party up for a major organisational meltdown.

    Good point – So if Carswell resigns the whip, who gets to keep the short money?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Off topic but also concerning impenetrably complex feuds involving a lot of blood-letting, Reuters have a piece on Russian diplomacy about Syria that's worth a read:

    http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0U032R20151217?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DAaronovitch: Just listening to Ukip's Dianne James accusing @DouglasCarswell of being part of a conspiracy against Farage. "Is he Brutus or Cassius"?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,016

    It's a real shame for "moderate" Eurosceptics (those who don't like ever closer union but eschew Colonel Blimp style xenophobia) that UKIP is seen as more or less a shambolic BNP-lite.

    Right now, more than ever, there needs to be a coherent and reasonable anti-EU movement with a clear message and vision for the UK to be able to choose a positive path other than "ever closer union". Cameron trying to make it all about benefits for Polish plumbers is absurd and almost insulting frankly. It should be about much bigger issues than that, but currently it's not.

    I can see us getting a Scotland style narrowish but still decisive vote to stay in, with most of the votes having been cast by people who have been very poorly served by the politicians in the sense that a proper debate on either side has simply not happened. What a waste.

    but in general I agree. It is a shame. Scotland managed to get people engaged and have debates in village halls and so on. Like, at least in parts a grass-roots, reasonable debate featuring the elecorate. I don't know if there is any of that going on with regards to this referendum
    I've seen SFA! However the local MP. although a Minister, is probably voting leave, and doesn't want her constituents confused with facts.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749
    Scott_P said:

    @DAaronovitch: Just listening to Ukip's Dianne James accusing @DouglasCarswell of being part of a conspiracy against Farage. "Is he Brutus or Cassius"?

    Balls.

    Farage is no way as brilliant as Caesar.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,016
    edited 2015 18

    If Carswell is able to turn off what little of Short money goes to the main party people, this, combined with 1) UKIP's known cut in donations and 2) UKIPs drop in membership, sets the party up for a major organisational meltdown.

    Good point – So if Carswell resigns the whip, who gets to keep the short money?
    Without wishing to delve into the deeper recesses of some colleagues activities ,how does he, in a Parliamentary sense, Whip himself?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,832
    Just listening to the tape of Lucy Allan MP. By election in Telford next year?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,641

    If Carswell is able to turn off what little of Short money goes to the main party people, this, combined with 1) UKIP's known cut in donations and 2) UKIPs drop in membership, sets the party up for a major organisational meltdown.

    Good point – So if Carswell resigns the whip, who gets to keep the short money?
    Without wishing to delve into the deeper recesses of some colleagues activities ,how does he, in a Parliamentary sense, Whip himself?
    Rolf Harris was shown spanking himself in the intro to "Rolf's Cartoon Club"
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JakeReesMogg: Douglas Carswell should return to the Conservative benches and continue the Brexit fight from there.

    I think that account is a spoof?

    MP Jacob Rees-Mogg is to continue to be a Twitter refusenik – because a fake account in his name is more entertaining than he could ever be.

    Read more: http://www.bathchronicle.co.uk/MP-Jacob-Rees-Mogg-happy-let-fake-Jake-Twitter/story-19838041-detail/story.html#ixzz3ug6PT4CZ
    Jacob is the parliamentary member for the 18th century and so using Twitter would be impossible for him. A pamphlet perhaps?
    a broadside?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,641

    let them federalise properly.

    isn't that a taboo word? You'll be talking subsidiarity next!

    I'm drafting a pb article that uses the f word.
    how daring! I shall look forward to it
    The f word being federal, I stress.
    Not Farage?
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819

    If Carswell is able to turn off what little of Short money goes to the main party people, this, combined with 1) UKIP's known cut in donations and 2) UKIPs drop in membership, sets the party up for a major organisational meltdown.

    Good point – So if Carswell resigns the whip, who gets to keep the short money?
    Without wishing to delve into the deeper recesses of some colleagues activities ,how does he, in a Parliamentary sense, Whip himself?
    Just a form of self-flagellation?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,016

    If Carswell is able to turn off what little of Short money goes to the main party people, this, combined with 1) UKIP's known cut in donations and 2) UKIPs drop in membership, sets the party up for a major organisational meltdown.

    Good point – So if Carswell resigns the whip, who gets to keep the short money?
    Without wishing to delve into the deeper recesses of some colleagues activities ,how does he, in a Parliamentary sense, Whip himself?
    Rolf Harris was shown spanking himself in the intro to "Rolf's Cartoon Club"
    There you are; what did I say about some colleagues!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm depressed that I'm not surprised at this allegation:

    @guardiannews · 46s47 seconds ago
    Rotherham officer told of serious abuse 'had sex with victim's housemates' http://d.gu.com/D2qGJR
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Mind bleach - I wish I’d never asked the question.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    let them federalise properly.

    isn't that a taboo word? You'll be talking subsidiarity next!

    I'm drafting a pb article that uses the f word.
    how daring! I shall look forward to it
    The f word being federal, I stress.
    that f word is much more daring than the other one, especially round these parts, I'll warrant
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,832

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JakeReesMogg: Douglas Carswell should return to the Conservative benches and continue the Brexit fight from there.

    I think that account is a spoof?

    MP Jacob Rees-Mogg is to continue to be a Twitter refusenik – because a fake account in his name is more entertaining than he could ever be.

    Read more: http://www.bathchronicle.co.uk/MP-Jacob-Rees-Mogg-happy-let-fake-Jake-Twitter/story-19838041-detail/story.html#ixzz3ug6PT4CZ
    Jacob is the parliamentary member for the 18th century and so using Twitter would be impossible for him. A pamphlet perhaps?
    a broadside?
    My favourite beer!
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JakeReesMogg: Douglas Carswell should return to the Conservative benches and continue the Brexit fight from there.

    I think that account is a spoof?

    MP Jacob Rees-Mogg is to continue to be a Twitter refusenik – because a fake account in his name is more entertaining than he could ever be.

    Read more: http://www.bathchronicle.co.uk/MP-Jacob-Rees-Mogg-happy-let-fake-Jake-Twitter/story-19838041-detail/story.html#ixzz3ug6PT4CZ
    Jacob is the parliamentary member for the 18th century and so using Twitter would be impossible for him. A pamphlet perhaps?
    a broadside?
    There must be a local Town Crier in his constituency, who could read out daily proclamations from Jacob.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819

    Mind bleach - I wish I’d never asked the question.

    It can mean just to be very critical of oneself.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited 2015 18
    European Parliament president Martin Schulz said: 'Cameron's four-year benefit ban won't get through.

    'It is not for the EU to accommodate Cameron but the other way around. It is not the EU that has called a referendum.'
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749

    Mind bleach - I wish I’d never asked the question.

    That's what Miss CycleFree said when she asked me to explain what "Change at Baker Street" meant.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited 2015 18
    I think many people are missing the point as to why Carswell defected. He had no faith in Cameron who had privately admitted to negotiating the bare minimum to win the remain vote.

    With no one to hold his feet to the fire he is free to make his four demands. It is truly depressing to think of how little he is asking for. Three of his four demands are meaningless and the fourth of benefits is a minor expense in the grand scheme of things.

    Where is the CAP reform, the CFP reform, demanding one site for the EU Parliament, a red card for unwanted legislation, an end to judicial activism by the ECJ, more accountability, less waste, returning powers to member countries, sign our own FTAs... The list is endless.

    Presuming remain wins we will have to wait 20, 30 years before another chance of a referendum.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,641

    Scott_P said:

    @DAaronovitch: Just listening to Ukip's Dianne James accusing @DouglasCarswell of being part of a conspiracy against Farage. "Is he Brutus or Cassius"?

    Balls.

    Farage is no way as brilliant as Caesar.
    Farage was the Jar-Jar Binks of GE2015. Even the LibDems managed to win more seats.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JakeReesMogg: Douglas Carswell should return to the Conservative benches and continue the Brexit fight from there.

    I think that account is a spoof?

    MP Jacob Rees-Mogg is to continue to be a Twitter refusenik – because a fake account in his name is more entertaining than he could ever be.

    Read more: http://www.bathchronicle.co.uk/MP-Jacob-Rees-Mogg-happy-let-fake-Jake-Twitter/story-19838041-detail/story.html#ixzz3ug6PT4CZ
    Jacob is the parliamentary member for the 18th century and so using Twitter would be impossible for him. A pamphlet perhaps?
    a broadside?
    My favourite beer!
    a good choice. I favour Timothy Taylor's Landlord. A pint of which I have not seen in many a long year
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420

    I'm depressed that I'm not surprised at this allegation:

    @guardiannews · 46s47 seconds ago
    Rotherham officer told of serious abuse 'had sex with victim's housemates' http://d.gu.com/D2qGJR

    Sick. Pensions-assured though...?

    We really need to address child-protection: Adults can do what they like with each-other. PIE for Labour and reducing the age of seniority in Scotland appears to be the negative path we are following.... :(

    :mad-as-a-bse-cow:
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Dannythefink: Obvious from @Nigel_Farage just now when I was on @daily_politics that @ukip is toying with withdrawing the whip from @DouglasCarswell
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,641
    Scott_P said:

    @Dannythefink: Obvious from @Nigel_Farage just now when I was on @daily_politics that @ukip is toying with withdrawing the whip from @DouglasCarswell

    Carswell withdraws the whip from himself???
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: #ironyalert who could have guessed PM doubling down on Euro ref, probably his biggest ever political gamble, just as UKIP imploding ....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749

    Scott_P said:

    @DAaronovitch: Just listening to Ukip's Dianne James accusing @DouglasCarswell of being part of a conspiracy against Farage. "Is he Brutus or Cassius"?

    Balls.

    Farage is no way as brilliant as Caesar.
    Farage was the Jar-Jar Binks of GE2015. Even the LibDems managed to win more seats.
    I've done a thread comparing the Lib Dems to Grand Moff Tarkin.

    Both thought they had an impregnable defence...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,016
    Scott_P said:

    @Dannythefink: Obvious from @Nigel_Farage just now when I was on @daily_politics that @ukip is toying with withdrawing the whip from @DouglasCarswell

    You mean expelling him.How can the Parliamentary Whip be withdrawn by someone or some body which isn't within Parliament?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749
    edited 2015 18
    I know I have high fashion standards, and not everyone dresses as elegantly as I, but what the eff is Michael Portillo wearing?

    Did he get dressed in the dark?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWgy1CDXAAAmkE_.jpg
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,107

    taffys said:

    ''Sources described the meeting as very warm and good natured.''

    I have read articles saying that if Britain comes out, the Irish might have to come out, like it or not.

    Ireland to re-join the Commonwealth?
    No
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,234
    edited 2015 18

    I know I have high fashion standards, and not everyone dresses as elegantly as I, but what the eff is Michael Portillo wearing?

    Did he get dressed in the dark?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWgy1CDXAAAmkE_.jpg

    Didn't he wear that last year?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,812
    Scott_P said:

    @Dannythefink: Obvious from @Nigel_Farage just now when I was on @daily_politics that @ukip is toying with withdrawing the whip from @DouglasCarswell

    UKIP could be playing with fire there. Until now Carswell has at least shown some equanimity in his criticisms, presumably out of loyalty to his UKIP colleagues. Unfettered who knows what secrets he could reveal and what invectives he could launch. And the media would lap it up.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749
    RobD said:

    I know I have high fashion standards, and not everyone dresses as elegantly as I, but what the eff is Michael Portillo wearing?

    Did he get dressed in the dark?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWgy1CDXAAAmkE_.jpg

    Didn't he wear that last year?
    Don't know, it appeared in my twitter feed just no
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,234

    RobD said:

    I know I have high fashion standards, and not everyone dresses as elegantly as I, but what the eff is Michael Portillo wearing?

    Did he get dressed in the dark?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWgy1CDXAAAmkE_.jpg

    Didn't he wear that last year?
    Don't know, it appeared in my twitter feed just no
    Must be last year, don't think Dianne can be on it while she is on the shadow front bench.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Scott_P said:

    @DAaronovitch: Just listening to Ukip's Dianne James accusing @DouglasCarswell of being part of a conspiracy against Farage. "Is he Brutus or Cassius"?

    Balls.

    Farage is no way as brilliant as Caesar.
    Farage was the Jar-Jar Binks of GE2015. Even the LibDems managed to win more seats.
    That's a bit harsh on Jar Jar. He did win an important vote in the Republican Senate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,754

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JakeReesMogg: Douglas Carswell should return to the Conservative benches and continue the Brexit fight from there.

    I think that account is a spoof?

    MP Jacob Rees-Mogg is to continue to be a Twitter refusenik – because a fake account in his name is more entertaining than he could ever be.

    Read more: http://www.bathchronicle.co.uk/MP-Jacob-Rees-Mogg-happy-let-fake-Jake-Twitter/story-19838041-detail/story.html#ixzz3ug6PT4CZ
    Jacob is the parliamentary member for the 18th century and so using Twitter would be impossible for him. A pamphlet perhaps?
    a broadside?
    My favourite beer!
    a good choice. I favour Timothy Taylor's Landlord. A pint of which I have not seen in many a long year
    You know you're in right place when you find Tim Taylor, mind.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited 2015 18
    Expelling your only MP would very odd. Both sides need to step back and park their egos. I can't see it lasting, but this way is madness.

    What's the point in voting UKIP if they rub out their only Parly man. Terrible message on the doorstep.

    Scott_P said:

    @Dannythefink: Obvious from @Nigel_Farage just now when I was on @daily_politics that @ukip is toying with withdrawing the whip from @DouglasCarswell

    UKIP could be playing with fire there. Until now Carswell has at least shown some equanimity in his criticisms, presumably out of loyalty to his UKIP colleagues. Unfettered who knows what secrets he could reveal and what invectives he could launch. And the media would lap it up.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,234
    edited 2015 18
    Dair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @DAaronovitch: Just listening to Ukip's Dianne James accusing @DouglasCarswell of being part of a conspiracy against Farage. "Is he Brutus or Cassius"?

    Balls.

    Farage is no way as brilliant as Caesar.
    Farage was the Jar-Jar Binks of GE2015. Even the LibDems managed to win more seats.
    That's a bit harsh on Jar Jar. He did win an important vote in the Republican Senate.
    Some theorize he is the true Sith lord.. who else could so deftly manipulate the Senate? (I haven't seen the new film yet so I like to believe this is true.. no spoilers!) :D
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'Presuming remain wins we will have to wait 20, 30 years before another chance of a referendum'

    You have to suspect that was the Foreign Office's plan all along I think. For the next two decades, every time more integration occurs if anyone objects they will be referred to the 'mandate' from the referendum.

    But we can still avoid this railroad by voting LEAVE
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Expelling your only MP would very odd. Both sides need to step back and park their egos. I can't see it lasting, but this way is madness.

    What's the point in voting UKIP if they rub out their only Parly man. Terrible message on the doorstep.

    Scott_P said:

    @Dannythefink: Obvious from @Nigel_Farage just now when I was on @daily_politics that @ukip is toying with withdrawing the whip from @DouglasCarswell

    UKIP could be playing with fire there. Until now Carswell has at least shown some equanimity in his criticisms, presumably out of loyalty to his UKIP colleagues. Unfettered who knows what secrets he could reveal and what invectives he could launch. And the media would lap it up.
    There's no doorsteps to knock for a while thank heavens, the way this is panning out there won't be a party to knock for.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Anyone speculating on a redefection should ponder the following tweet:

    @DouglasCarswell · 15h15 hours ago
    Osborne will campaign to stay in the EU – his future depends on it <- Vote Leave and get rid of George too! Bonus https://t.co/IH1qojxXoi
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Anyone speculating on a redefection should ponder the following tweet:

    @DouglasCarswell · 15h15 hours ago
    Osborne will campaign to stay in the EU – his future depends on it <- Vote Leave and get rid of George too! Bonus https://t.co/IH1qojxXoi</p&gt;

    lol, OK
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,754

    Anyone speculating on a redefection should ponder the following tweet:

    @DouglasCarswell · 15h15 hours ago
    Osborne will campaign to stay in the EU – his future depends on it <- Vote Leave and get rid of George too! Bonus https://t.co/IH1qojxXoi</p&gt;

    Surely he just runs in 2020 as an independent. No need to force a by-election over it all, I think he probably has enough personal vote to win there.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,107
    taffys said:

    ''Sources described the meeting as very warm and good natured.''

    I have read articles saying that if Britain comes out, the Irish might have to come out, like it or not.

    Before Ireland joined the Euro, it would have been highly probable that a Brexit whould be followed by a Irexit. But since joining the Euro, I'd say it's now more probable that it can't, even if Brexit. The anecdote that it's wargaming leaving the EU but staying in the Euro illustrates this: that's such a dumb combination of events I assume they didn't have wargame it for long before they looked at each other and went "uh-oh".
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'the Irish might have to come out, like it or not'

    Who cares?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,246
    Just been to see Star Wars. An enjoyable but incredibly safe film.

    The only thing cheesier than the plot was the case of West Country cheese the deliveryman had left by our back door when I got back.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited 2015 18
    runnymede said:

    'Presuming remain wins we will have to wait 20, 30 years before another chance of a referendum'

    You have to suspect that was the Foreign Office's plan all along I think. For the next two decades, every time more integration occurs if anyone objects they will be referred to the 'mandate' from the referendum.

    That makes zero sense, since the Foreign Office didn't want a referendum.

    However, you are right of course about the mandate. That is precisely why I argued that the BOOers were bonkers to demand an immediate referendum before renegotiation. Naturally I got only abuse from the usual suspects for making this obvious point.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,234
    runnymede said:

    'the Irish might have to come out, like it or not'

    Who cares?

    The Irish?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Here's a very long and fascinating piece, using military theory - Boyd's OODA loop, to analyze why Trump has been so successful to date and yet is vulnerable in the longer-term:

    http://thefederalist.com/2015/12/16/military-strategist-explains-why-donald-trump-leads-and-how-he-will-fail/

    It also shows that, aside from the obvious starting point of angry and dissatisfied selectorates, comparisons between Trump's campaign and Corbyn's are completely off-base.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone speculating on a redefection should ponder the following tweet:

    @DouglasCarswell · 15h15 hours ago
    Osborne will campaign to stay in the EU – his future depends on it <- Vote Leave and get rid of George too! Bonus https://t.co/IH1qojxXoi</p&gt;

    Surely he just runs in 2020 as an independent. No need to force a by-election over it all, I think he probably has enough personal vote to win there.
    No doubt Douglas is popular enough but funding a campaign as an indy would be hugely difficult, especially considering what the tories will throw at it.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited 2015 18
    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone speculating on a redefection should ponder the following tweet:

    @DouglasCarswell · 15h15 hours ago
    Osborne will campaign to stay in the EU – his future depends on it <- Vote Leave and get rid of George too! Bonus https://t.co/IH1qojxXoi</p&gt;

    Surely he just runs in 2020 as an independent. No need to force a by-election over it all, I think he probably has enough personal vote to win there.
    I doubt that he would win. In the circumstances we are talking about, UKIP would almost certainly stand against him and split his vote. He'd be toast.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    viewcode said:

    taffys said:

    ''Sources described the meeting as very warm and good natured.''

    I have read articles saying that if Britain comes out, the Irish might have to come out, like it or not.

    Before Ireland joined the Euro, it would have been highly probable that a Brexit whould be followed by a Irexit. But since joining the Euro, I'd say it's now more probable that it can't, even if Brexit. The anecdote that it's wargaming leaving the EU but staying in the Euro illustrates this: that's such a dumb combination of events I assume they didn't have wargame it for long before they looked at each other and went "uh-oh".
    The very fact that it's being talked about does shed a different light on the SNP assumption that Brexit would trigger demands for a new Scottish independence referendum so that Scotland could (re)join the EU.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749

    Anyone speculating on a redefection should ponder the following tweet:

    @DouglasCarswell · 15h15 hours ago
    Osborne will campaign to stay in the EU – his future depends on it <- Vote Leave and get rid of George too! Bonus https://t.co/IH1qojxXoi</p&gt;

    Carswell is just bitter that Osborne got a credit in the latest Star Wars film and he didn't.

    I wasn't planning on voting for George as next Tory leader* but now I will.

    *I would have only voted for him were he up against one of the Eurosceptic Loonbags.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'since the Foreign Office didn't want a referendum'

    Not originally, no, of course.

    But once there was going to be one it's pretty clear what the approach has been - water down the UK's demands to a homeopathic consistency then try to win the referendum through dissembling and use that as a mandate forever.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    MP_SE said:

    I think many people are missing the point as to why Carswell defected. He had no faith in Cameron who had privately admitted to negotiating the bare minimum to win the remain vote.

    With no one to hold his feet to the fire he is free to make his four demands. It is truly depressing to think of how little he is asking for. Three of his four demands are meaningless and the fourth of benefits is a minor expense in the grand scheme of things.

    Where is the CAP reform, the CFP reform, demanding one site for the EU Parliament, a red card for unwanted legislation, an end to judicial activism by the ECJ, more accountability, less waste, returning powers to member countries, sign our own FTAs... The list is endless.

    Presuming remain wins we will have to wait 20, 30 years before another chance of a referendum.

    Maybe you're missing the point that for most people these are matters about which they care little. There is however scepticism about governments which extends in spades to the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels. However, overall that is probably not sufficient to persuade people that we should leave. The world has changed much in the last 30 years and for the young things like free movement and 'Europeanism' are not dirty words. I'm not young but value enormously the fact that I've been able to retire abroad with relative ease within the EU.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,234

    viewcode said:

    taffys said:

    ''Sources described the meeting as very warm and good natured.''

    I have read articles saying that if Britain comes out, the Irish might have to come out, like it or not.

    Before Ireland joined the Euro, it would have been highly probable that a Brexit whould be followed by a Irexit. But since joining the Euro, I'd say it's now more probable that it can't, even if Brexit. The anecdote that it's wargaming leaving the EU but staying in the Euro illustrates this: that's such a dumb combination of events I assume they didn't have wargame it for long before they looked at each other and went "uh-oh".
    The very fact that it's being talked about does shed a different light on the SNP assumption that Brexit would trigger demands for a new Scottish independence referendum so that Scotland could (re)join the EU.
    I know it's not going to happen, but I really want rUK to vote 49.999% leave, and for Scotland to push us over 50% :D The SNP wouldn't know what to do.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,754
    MTimT said:

    Here's a very long and fascinating piece, using military theory - Boyd's OODA loop, to analyze why Trump has been so successful to date and yet is vulnerable in the longer-term:

    http://thefederalist.com/2015/12/16/military-strategist-explains-why-donald-trump-leads-and-how-he-will-fail/

    It also shows that, aside from the obvious starting point of angry and dissatisfied selectorates, comparisons between Trump's campaign and Corbyn's are completely off-base.

    Well the "long term" might not happen till after New Hampshire, and by then it'll all be too late for anyone except possibly Ted Cruz.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited 2015 18
    runnymede said:

    'Presuming remain wins we will have to wait 20, 30 years before another chance of a referendum'

    You have to suspect that was the Foreign Office's plan all along I think. For the next two decades, every time more integration occurs if anyone objects they will be referred to the 'mandate' from the referendum.

    But we can still avoid this railroad by voting LEAVE

    I think a number of wet Tories are going to look back at their support for this EU mess in a few years and wonder, especially if their party starts to carry the can for saddling the country with a duff deal. There will be no blaming Mr Corbyn, no blaming Labour they have all but left the field, this will be down to what Dave will accept, and how he sells it to the country.

    When Cameron fails to get any meaningful safeguards for the City and we start getting ganged up on by the Eurozone members, and British business start screaming, will voting IN seem such a good idea in retrospect ? Or when an EU Border Guard kills a migrant on British soil ? Or when the ECJ overturns the flimsy remainants of the benefit restriction for migrants? Or when the number of migrants passes 800,000 heading up rather than 10's of thousands? I imagine a lot of them will things all these things are good, but the real question is, at the next election, will the voters, or will they think that they trusted Dave, they followed his advise, they voted in, and he sold them a pup?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749
    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    taffys said:

    ''Sources described the meeting as very warm and good natured.''

    I have read articles saying that if Britain comes out, the Irish might have to come out, like it or not.

    Before Ireland joined the Euro, it would have been highly probable that a Brexit whould be followed by a Irexit. But since joining the Euro, I'd say it's now more probable that it can't, even if Brexit. The anecdote that it's wargaming leaving the EU but staying in the Euro illustrates this: that's such a dumb combination of events I assume they didn't have wargame it for long before they looked at each other and went "uh-oh".
    The very fact that it's being talked about does shed a different light on the SNP assumption that Brexit would trigger demands for a new Scottish independence referendum so that Scotland could (re)join the EU.
    I know it's not going to happen, but I really want rUK to vote 49.999% leave, and for Scotland to push us over 50% :D The SNP wouldn't know what to do.
    They would declare it a great thing for Scottish Independence, as they always do.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Anyone speculating on a redefection should ponder the following tweet:

    @DouglasCarswell · 15h15 hours ago
    Osborne will campaign to stay in the EU – his future depends on it <- Vote Leave and get rid of George too! Bonus https://t.co/IH1qojxXoi</p&gt;

    Singularly stupid tweet to end an unimpressive day for the MP for Clacton.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Expelling your only MP would very odd. Both sides need to step back and park their egos. I can't see it lasting, but this way is madness.

    What's the point in voting UKIP if they rub out their only Parly man. Terrible message on the doorstep.

    Scott_P said:

    @Dannythefink: Obvious from @Nigel_Farage just now when I was on @daily_politics that @ukip is toying with withdrawing the whip from @DouglasCarswell

    UKIP could be playing with fire there. Until now Carswell has at least shown some equanimity in his criticisms, presumably out of loyalty to his UKIP colleagues. Unfettered who knows what secrets he could reveal and what invectives he could launch. And the media would lap it up.
    There's no doorsteps to knock for a while thank heavens, the way this is panning out there won't be a party to knock for.

    The organisational part of UKIP has always been it's Achilles Heel. I'm still a member of the party, but on present form I'll not rejoin in May when my membership expires. Another party experiment that has all the marks of failure, which is a pity because the present political leadership of Britain is leading the country to the abyss.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone speculating on a redefection should ponder the following tweet:

    @DouglasCarswell · 15h15 hours ago
    Osborne will campaign to stay in the EU – his future depends on it <- Vote Leave and get rid of George too! Bonus https://t.co/IH1qojxXoi</p&gt;

    Surely he just runs in 2020 as an independent. No need to force a by-election over it all, I think he probably has enough personal vote to win there.
    I think he would lose. His majority was slashed last time and after a while eccentricity just becomes a bit boring.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    runnymede said:

    'since the Foreign Office didn't want a referendum'

    Not originally, no, of course.

    But once there was going to be one it's pretty clear what the approach has been - water down the UK's demands to a homeopathic consistency then try to win the referendum through dissembling and use that as a mandate forever.

    and a new version of Project Fear.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    runnymede said:

    'since the Foreign Office didn't want a referendum'

    Not originally, no, of course.

    But once there was going to be one it's pretty clear what the approach has been - water down the UK's demands to a homeopathic consistency then try to win the referendum through dissembling and use that as a mandate forever.

    I've been trying to believe six impossible things before breakfast, but still can't manage it. In particular, I struggle with the concept that Cameron's demands are simultaneously so feeble that they are purely cosmetic, and so unacceptable to our EU friends that there's not a hope in hell of him achieving them.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    My opinion on this is long known since the election.
    The Farage led UKIP party has reached, or is close to, it's maximum potential, for UKIP to grow further it needs a successful leadership transfer.
    For Farage is to UKIP what Moses is to Jews, he broke them through but stuck them 40 years in the wilderness and only watched them go to the promised land under a new leader.

    Carswell might not be that new leader suitable for UKIP though, since one of UKIP's central policy platform is social conservatism, abandoning that will make them just like Tories with no policy distinction whatsoever.

    This is a crucial test for UKIP if they are to become a major political power, being able to pass the baton is a crucial aspect of maturity.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,842
    Odds on the Tories regaining Clacton in 2020?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    runnymede said:

    'since the Foreign Office didn't want a referendum'

    Not originally, no, of course.

    But once there was going to be one it's pretty clear what the approach has been - water down the UK's demands to a homeopathic consistency then try to win the referendum through dissembling and use that as a mandate forever.

    I've been trying to believe six impossible things before breakfast, but still can't manage it. In particular, I struggle with the concept that Cameron's demands are simultaneously so feeble that they are purely cosmetic, and so unacceptable to our EU friends that there's not a hope in hell of him achieving them.
    Of course he will achieve them, that has already been decided, we are currently going though the process of trying to make them look significant to the voters. If the other negotiators just says "yeah, whatever" without any pretence of a fight it would be clear to everyone that the demands are worthless.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Indigo said:

    runnymede said:

    'Presuming remain wins we will have to wait 20, 30 years before another chance of a referendum'

    You have to suspect that was the Foreign Office's plan all along I think. For the next two decades, every time more integration occurs if anyone objects they will be referred to the 'mandate' from the referendum.

    But we can still avoid this railroad by voting LEAVE

    I think a number of wet Tories are going to look back at their support for this EU mess in a few years and wonder, especially if their party starts to carry the can for saddling the country with a duff deal. There will be no blaming Mr Corbyn, no blaming Labour they have all but left the field, this will be down to what Dave will accept, and how he sells it to the country.

    When Cameron fails to get any meaningful safeguards for the City and we start getting ganged up on by the Eurozone members, and British business start screaming, will voting IN seem such a good idea in retrospect ? Or when an EU Border Guard kills a migrant on British soil ? Or when the ECJ overturns the flimsy remainants of the benefit restriction for migrants? Or when the number of migrants passes 800,000 heading up rather than 10's of thousands? I imagine a lot of them will things all these things are good, but the real question is, at the next election, will the voters, or will they think that they trusted Dave, they followed his advise, they voted in, and he sold them a pup?
    Oh dear - time for a 'You ok hun?' courtesy of Ms Davidson :)
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'and so unacceptable to our EU friends that there's not a hope in hell of him achieving them'

    When have I ever said that? You could do with dialling back the smugness a bit.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    MikeK said:

    Expelling your only MP would very odd. Both sides need to step back and park their egos. I can't see it lasting, but this way is madness.

    What's the point in voting UKIP if they rub out their only Parly man. Terrible message on the doorstep.

    Scott_P said:

    @Dannythefink: Obvious from @Nigel_Farage just now when I was on @daily_politics that @ukip is toying with withdrawing the whip from @DouglasCarswell

    UKIP could be playing with fire there. Until now Carswell has at least shown some equanimity in his criticisms, presumably out of loyalty to his UKIP colleagues. Unfettered who knows what secrets he could reveal and what invectives he could launch. And the media would lap it up.
    There's no doorsteps to knock for a while thank heavens, the way this is panning out there won't be a party to knock for.

    The organisational part of UKIP has always been it's Achilles Heel. I'm still a member of the party, but on present form I'll not rejoin in May when my membership expires. Another party experiment that has all the marks of failure, which is a pity because the present political leadership of Britain is leading the country to the abyss.
    I'm afraid to say I know plenty like you, the GE campaign was a shambles, such a shame as so many people worked tirelessly. Most of those people have become disillusioned with subsequent events.

    I do think failure is too strong a word, think positive, we can forget about the party and concentrate on what's paramount, getting out of the EU.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,754
    edited 2015 18

    runnymede said:

    'since the Foreign Office didn't want a referendum'

    Not originally, no, of course.

    But once there was going to be one it's pretty clear what the approach has been - water down the UK's demands to a homeopathic consistency then try to win the referendum through dissembling and use that as a mandate forever.

    I've been trying to believe six impossible things before breakfast, but still can't manage it. In particular, I struggle with the concept that Cameron's demands are simultaneously so feeble that they are purely cosmetic, and so unacceptable to our EU friends that there's not a hope in hell of him achieving them.
    John Pienaar's explanations of what Dave is doing has been pretty good. Plan A of cutting in work benefits for 4 years is "dead in the water". So he'll need a plan B !
    Plan B seems to be based on prejudging his own negotiations to be a success.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749
    edited 2015 18
    PB needs some funds to fight off the lawyers.

    Popbitch is seeking to raise £20,000 from its readers in the wake of a series of cyber attacks and a sharp rise in the number of legal threats.

    The scurrilous email newsletter, which gleefully exposes behaviour that many celebrities would rather keep hidden, said it has had more attempts by lawyers to kill stories in the past six months than the previous three years.

    “Everyone’s getting back into the pre-Leveson superinjunction swing of things. Privacy letters are flying around and – on a couple of occasions – rich and badly behaved people who have got wind of us sniffing around have got their expensive lawyers on to us right away,” Popbitch told readers.

    Its email servers and website have also been the subject of eight cyber attacks this year, mainly from China. “They’re trying to overwhelm the systems, stop our service from running and close us down. We don’t how or why.”

    The £20,000 Popbitch aims to raise will allow it to upgrade its systems “before the cyber attackers (or, worse, the lawyers) win”.

    Readers who donate more than £50 will become premium members and get invitations to Popbitch parties, as well as occasional answers to some of the juicier Big Questions posed in its weekly newsletter.

    http://bit.ly/1Je7rIj
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,842

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: PM gives clear indication of vote next year at end of #euco and his backing for in after what he expects will be a successful deal in feb

    The deal is obviously done and dusted and all the press reports are just theatre...the real question is what has he actually got.

    He got what he wanted in the lead up to the last general election. Cameron made his referendum promise only to keep the Tory right quiet and to dampen down UKIP's appeal. The rest was, is and will be just window dressing.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,641
    edited 2015 18

    I know I have high fashion standards, and not everyone dresses as elegantly as I, but what the eff is Michael Portillo wearing?

    Did he get dressed in the dark?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWgy1CDXAAAmkE_.jpg

    I take it you never saw his attire in his Railway Journeys programmes! :lol:
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    runnymede said:

    'and so unacceptable to our EU friends that there's not a hope in hell of him achieving them'

    When have I ever said that? You could do with dialling back the smugness a bit.

    You haven't AFAIK, but it's a very common point, made here and elsewhere. Every time there is a press report to the effect that Angela Merkel or some Polish politician or some minor EU bureaucrat doesn't agree with Cameron's demands, we get a chorus of 'Told you so' from the usual suspects.

    As for smugness, accusing me of smugness is simply accusing me of being right.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,641

    Odds on the Tories regaining Clacton in 2020?

    "Never tell me the odds!" - Han Solo in The Empire Strikes Back.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    edited 2015 18

    PB needs some funds to fight off the lawyers.

    Popbitch is seeking to raise £20,000 from its readers in the wake of a series of cyber attacks and a sharp rise in the number of legal threats.

    The scurrilous email newsletter, which gleefully exposes behaviour that many celebrities would rather keep hidden, said it has had more attempts by lawyers to kill stories in the past six months than the previous three years.

    “Everyone’s getting back into the pre-Leveson superinjunction swing of things. Privacy letters are flying around and – on a couple of occasions – rich and badly behaved people who have got wind of us sniffing around have got their expensive lawyers on to us right away,” Popbitch told readers.

    Its email servers and website have also been the subject of eight cyber attacks this year, mainly from China. “They’re trying to overwhelm the systems, stop our service from running and close us down. We don’t how or why.”

    The £20,000 Popbitch aims to raise will allow it to upgrade its systems “before the cyber attackers (or, worse, the lawyers) win”.

    Readers who donate more than £50 will become premium members and get invitations to Popbitch parties, as well as occasional answers to some of the juicier Big Questions posed in its weekly newsletter.

    http://bit.ly/1Je7rIj

    This weeks Alan Yentob story made me chuckle...

    £20k wont touch the sides for either fighting professional DDOS / hacking and / or lawyers fees.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone speculating on a redefection should ponder the following tweet:

    @DouglasCarswell · 15h15 hours ago
    Osborne will campaign to stay in the EU – his future depends on it <- Vote Leave and get rid of George too! Bonus https://t.co/IH1qojxXoi</p&gt;

    Surely he just runs in 2020 as an independent. No need to force a by-election over it all, I think he probably has enough personal vote to win there.
    No doubt Douglas is popular enough but funding a campaign as an indy would be hugely difficult, especially considering what the tories will throw at it.

    UKIP would stand against him too, no?
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited 2015 18
    felix said:

    MP_SE said:

    I think many people are missing the point as to why Carswell defected. He had no faith in Cameron who had privately admitted to negotiating the bare minimum to win the remain vote.

    With no one to hold his feet to the fire he is free to make his four demands. It is truly depressing to think of how little he is asking for. Three of his four demands are meaningless and the fourth of benefits is a minor expense in the grand scheme of things.

    Where is the CAP reform, the CFP reform, demanding one site for the EU Parliament, a red card for unwanted legislation, an end to judicial activism by the ECJ, more accountability, less waste, returning powers to member countries, sign our own FTAs... The list is endless.

    Presuming remain wins we will have to wait 20, 30 years before another chance of a referendum.

    Maybe you're missing the point that for most people these are matters about which they care little. There is however scepticism about governments which extends in spades to the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels. However, overall that is probably not sufficient to persuade people that we should leave. The world has changed much in the last 30 years and for the young things like free movement and 'Europeanism' are not dirty words. I'm not young but value enormously the fact that I've been able to retire abroad with relative ease within the EU.
    It is not about most people, it is about Carswell's reasons for defecting. Many were confused as to why he defected but he was completely clear in that he thought Cameron would not attempt a substantial renegotiation.

    Being able to retire to countries in Europe with relative ease happened long before the EU ever existed.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    He got what he wanted in the lead up to the last general election. Cameron made his referendum promise only to keep the Tory right quiet and to dampen down UKIP's appeal. The rest was, is and will be just window dressing.

    It can hardly be window dressing. There's a referendum coming, and it's a big stonking fact. And it's what the Tory BOOers and UKIP wanted, or at least claimed they wanted. They were laying into him for not calling a referendum earlier, and now they've got the referendum they're quarrelling amongst themselves rather than trying to put together a convincing Leave case.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,234

    PB needs some funds to fight off the lawyers.

    Popbitch is seeking to raise £20,000 from its readers in the wake of a series of cyber attacks and a sharp rise in the number of legal threats.

    The scurrilous email newsletter, which gleefully exposes behaviour that many celebrities would rather keep hidden, said it has had more attempts by lawyers to kill stories in the past six months than the previous three years.

    “Everyone’s getting back into the pre-Leveson superinjunction swing of things. Privacy letters are flying around and – on a couple of occasions – rich and badly behaved people who have got wind of us sniffing around have got their expensive lawyers on to us right away,” Popbitch told readers.

    Its email servers and website have also been the subject of eight cyber attacks this year, mainly from China. “They’re trying to overwhelm the systems, stop our service from running and close us down. We don’t how or why.”

    The £20,000 Popbitch aims to raise will allow it to upgrade its systems “before the cyber attackers (or, worse, the lawyers) win”.

    Readers who donate more than £50 will become premium members and get invitations to Popbitch parties, as well as occasional answers to some of the juicier Big Questions posed in its weekly newsletter.

    http://bit.ly/1Je7rIj

    Would PB Elites get early access to the AV thread? :D
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749
    RobD said:

    PB needs some funds to fight off the lawyers.

    Popbitch is seeking to raise £20,000 from its readers in the wake of a series of cyber attacks and a sharp rise in the number of legal threats.

    The scurrilous email newsletter, which gleefully exposes behaviour that many celebrities would rather keep hidden, said it has had more attempts by lawyers to kill stories in the past six months than the previous three years.

    “Everyone’s getting back into the pre-Leveson superinjunction swing of things. Privacy letters are flying around and – on a couple of occasions – rich and badly behaved people who have got wind of us sniffing around have got their expensive lawyers on to us right away,” Popbitch told readers.

    Its email servers and website have also been the subject of eight cyber attacks this year, mainly from China. “They’re trying to overwhelm the systems, stop our service from running and close us down. We don’t how or why.”

    The £20,000 Popbitch aims to raise will allow it to upgrade its systems “before the cyber attackers (or, worse, the lawyers) win”.

    Readers who donate more than £50 will become premium members and get invitations to Popbitch parties, as well as occasional answers to some of the juicier Big Questions posed in its weekly newsletter.

    http://bit.ly/1Je7rIj

    Would PB Elites get early access to the AV thread? :D
    I'll email it to some PBers on Christmas Day as a Christmas present.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,234

    RobD said:

    PB needs some funds to fight off the lawyers.

    Popbitch is seeking to raise £20,000 from its readers in the wake of a series of cyber attacks and a sharp rise in the number of legal threats.

    The scurrilous email newsletter, which gleefully exposes behaviour that many celebrities would rather keep hidden, said it has had more attempts by lawyers to kill stories in the past six months than the previous three years.

    “Everyone’s getting back into the pre-Leveson superinjunction swing of things. Privacy letters are flying around and – on a couple of occasions – rich and badly behaved people who have got wind of us sniffing around have got their expensive lawyers on to us right away,” Popbitch told readers.

    Its email servers and website have also been the subject of eight cyber attacks this year, mainly from China. “They’re trying to overwhelm the systems, stop our service from running and close us down. We don’t how or why.”

    The £20,000 Popbitch aims to raise will allow it to upgrade its systems “before the cyber attackers (or, worse, the lawyers) win”.

    Readers who donate more than £50 will become premium members and get invitations to Popbitch parties, as well as occasional answers to some of the juicier Big Questions posed in its weekly newsletter.

    http://bit.ly/1Je7rIj

    Would PB Elites get early access to the AV thread? :D
    I'll email it to some PBers on Christmas Day as a Christmas present.
    Most generous.
    I think PB Elites should be given the like button back :p
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749
    If Farage were to remove the whip from Carswell and they don't win any by-elections then UKIP may not be in the 2020 TV debates
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    runnymede said:

    'and so unacceptable to our EU friends that there's not a hope in hell of him achieving them'

    When have I ever said that? You could do with dialling back the smugness a bit.

    You haven't AFAIK, but it's a very common point, made here and elsewhere. Every time there is a press report to the effect that Angela Merkel or some Polish politician or some minor EU bureaucrat doesn't agree with Cameron's demands, we get a chorus of 'Told you so' from the usual suspects.

    As for smugness, accusing me of smugness is simply accusing me of being right.
    I imagine we will find out who is right in due course, seems a bit premature at the moment. SO is rather nearer the mark, Cam conspicuous has no interest in the EU and wishes the whole thing would go away, the referendum has done it's job (help get him re-elected) now he just wants to win it a quietly and inexpensively as possible and go on his way.

    f Cam eventually comes back with real curbs on migrant benefits over a significant duration, his big claim to fame, many will see that as a win, although many will also see it as hugely inadequate, and if that is combined with some solid support for protecting the City you might claim to be right. If he comes back with some sort of "emergency break with EU permission if we ask really nicely and in exchange for significantly increased contributions" and the protection for the City is a figleaf, or rapidly circumvented or killed in the ECJ, I think it would be fair to say you are wrong.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,016
    edited 2015 18
    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone speculating on a redefection should ponder the following tweet:

    @DouglasCarswell · 15h15 hours ago
    Osborne will campaign to stay in the EU – his future depends on it <- Vote Leave and get rid of George too! Bonus https://t.co/IH1qojxXoi</p&gt;

    Surely he just runs in 2020 as an independent. No need to force a by-election over it all, I think he probably has enough personal vote to win there.
    I think he would lose. His majority was slashed last time and after a while eccentricity just becomes a bit boring.
    Is he THAT good a constituency MP? Just asking. After all, lots of good LD consituency MP's went down last time in the face of a relentless and targeted campaign.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,354
    Is there a market anywhere on UKP's share of the vote at the next election? Despite the referendum, which should be good for them SNP style, it is very hard to see them matching their 2015 performance or even coming close.

    The bet would need to be clear on what happens if there is more than 1 UKIP too.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited 2015 18
    Judging by the hot air emanating from Farage and the Cameron haters, Carswell is probably right.. Farage was so weak in the radio clip I heard. "Cameron's failed blah blah blah..." and yet the negotiations haven't actually concluded.
    It might be better to wait and see what Dave comes up with first.. at least it seems the sensible thing to do rather than whine.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,842

    He got what he wanted in the lead up to the last general election. Cameron made his referendum promise only to keep the Tory right quiet and to dampen down UKIP's appeal. The rest was, is and will be just window dressing.

    It can hardly be window dressing. There's a referendum coming, and it's a big stonking fact. And it's what the Tory BOOers and UKIP wanted, or at least claimed they wanted. They were laying into him for not calling a referendum earlier, and now they've got the referendum they're quarrelling amongst themselves rather than trying to put together a convincing Leave case.

    The Tory BOOers are in a lather because they realise - rather belatedly - that Dave has played them for fools (and they clearly are fools for not having realised what he was doing before when it was so obvious). UKIPers are in a lather because they always are.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,754

    If Farage were to remove the whip from Carswell and they don't win any by-elections then UKIP may not be in the 2020 TV debates

    Looks like both Carswell and Nige have the nuclear button at their disposal.
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