Neither Carswell's mild mannered intellectualism, nor Dan Hannan's eloquent arguments will win it for out.
Only a completely shameless campaign on Britain being flooded with forever more refugees, probably with a few racist overtones is going to work. Bear in mind the ASA does not regulate political advertising, so pretty much anything goes. Out needs to take it to the brink and beyond to win.
I think your analysis is correct but I doubt if even the campaign you describe would be anywhere near enough. The Brits just aren't that nasty.
EU leaders have offered David Cameron a limited "emergency break", allowing Britain to stop migrants claiming benefits if they are harming public services.
Hallelujah we are saved!
Who decides if they are hurting public services? The EU?
What's your drinking nationality? - It’s that time again when the Booze calculator makes an appearance. Anyone brave enough to admit they drink like a Frenchman?
[snip] I'm saying he [Dan Hannan] makes an eloquent case for leaving.
My point is the bad news for Inners is leave.eu will soon be sidelined
Dan does indeed make an eloquent case for leaving, and for people like me he would be the most persuasive advocate the Leave campaign could find.
However, I don't think he would be the right person to persuade the bulk of uncommitted voters, especially Labour or left-of-centre voters. His arguments come across as based on reasoning from abstract, generally libertarian, principles.
There's also the wider question of whether immigration should be at the heart of the Leave campaign; that seems to be at the heart of the Leave.EU/VoteLeave split.
EU leaders have offered David Cameron a limited "emergency break", allowing Britain to stop migrants claiming benefits if they are harming public services.
Hallelujah we are saved!
Source? You do realise that already represents a shift towards Cameron if it's true. I wonder what more Santa and the 3 Kings will bring by February.
How much cash do the "Out" and "In" campaigns have behind them each btw ?
Also is spending capped ? 'Out' will need a serious billboard, bus and online campaign full of stuff better than the current batch of 'Santa Junker' crap.
Some of the CCHQ team that worked their magic in May are now working for Remain.
For example Stephen Gilbert who was CCHQ Director of Campaigning is now working part time for Remain.
EU leaders have offered David Cameron a limited "emergency break", allowing Britain to stop migrants claiming benefits if they are harming public services.
Hallelujah we are saved!
Source? You do realise that already represents a shift towards Cameron if it's true. I wonder what more Santa and the 3 Kings will bring by February.
[snip] I'm saying he [Dan Hannan] makes an eloquent case for leaving.
My point is the bad news for Inners is leave.eu will soon be sidelined
Dan does indeed make an eloquent case for leaving, and for people like me he would be the most persuasive advocate the Leave campaign could find.
However, I don't think he would be the right person to persuade the bulk of uncommitted voters, especially Labour or left-of-centre voters. His arguments come across as based on reasoning from abstract, generally libertarian, principles.
There's also the wider question of whether immigration should be at the heart of the Leave campaign; that seems to be at the heart of the Leave.EU/VoteLeave split.
The anti immigrant vote is done and dusted, now Dan needs to make the case based on trade and sovereignty. He'll be far more persuasive than any Inners the tories can roll out.
justin124 said: 'Callaghan did not become PM having just been Chancellor - which is what your original post implied. To find an example of a long serving Chancellor succeeding to the post of PM and then going on to win an election we have to go back to 1908 when Asquith took office - though even he had to be content with leading minority Governments following the 1910 elections. Neville Chamberlain never fought an election as PM whilst Baldwin was only Chancellor for 7 months and went on to lose his first election. Re-Benn. He is not particularly leftwing unlike is father. Obviously not a Blairite either so he has the potential to be a unifying figure'
HYUFD said 'No rubbish as Major and Macmillan won after being Chancellor and the only other winner taking over in power, Eden, was Foreign Secretary so Osborne's only alternative would be Hammond '
For you to refer to my above comments as 'rubbish' simply betrays your ignorance frankly. Macmillan and Major held the office of Chancellor for barely a year. Neither can be said to have been long term Chancellors - they had barely settled into the role!
EU leaders have offered David Cameron a limited "emergency break", allowing Britain to stop migrants claiming benefits if they are harming public services.
Hallelujah we are saved!
Source? You do realise that already represents a shift towards Cameron if it's true. I wonder what more Santa and the 3 Kings will bring by February.
Current headline on the Kippergraph.
I see and as I thought another step in the negotiation. Good start.
What's your drinking nationality? - It’s that time again when the Booze calculator makes an appearance. Anyone brave enough to admit they drink like a Frenchman?
Drink like a Frenchman? Pah! They are mere dilettantes; "Un aperitif, un demi carafe et un digestif*" at lunch forsooth! Might as well go the whole hog and sign the pledge.
Drink like a Saxon, now that might be a touch too far, especially at my age - mind, I had a good go at it as a young man. As a nation the Septics were the ones that got me; getting all sniffy about having a beer at lunchtime and then slamming lethal cocktails down with both hands come six o'clock.
Talking of which, it has gone past the Hour, time for a little something.
*That was the ration that the old French drink driving laws were based on.
I imagine there'll be IN/OUT debates before the referendum like when Nigel took on Cleggy.
Who do you want batting for your side?
Anna Soubry, I think, if there's still anything worth fighting for. Though I'm still far from convinced that there's going to be anything worthy of the name IN on the ballot paper. Looks like it'll be a choice of OUT or ALMOST OUT
[snip] I'm saying he [Dan Hannan] makes an eloquent case for leaving.
My point is the bad news for Inners is leave.eu will soon be sidelined
Dan does indeed make an eloquent case for leaving, and for people like me he would be the most persuasive advocate the Leave campaign could find.
However, I don't think he would be the right person to persuade the bulk of uncommitted voters, especially Labour or left-of-centre voters. His arguments come across as based on reasoning from abstract, generally libertarian, principles.
There's also the wider question of whether immigration should be at the heart of the Leave campaign; that seems to be at the heart of the Leave.EU/VoteLeave split.
The jackpot for "Leave" is combining anti-immigration AND anti-austerity ("the money we send to Brussels could be used for our public services instead"). That's the key to getting working-class Labour voters onside.
As you say, this general abstract principle of "sovereignty" doesn't mean all that much to Joe Public: if something is good policy then people don't care whether it's set at Westminster level or European level (for example the Ashcroft focus groups found strong support for cross-EU co-operation for police forces and counterterrorism forces). "Leave" needs to focus on the tangible examples of BAD policy that come from Europe.
What's your drinking nationality? - It’s that time again when the Booze calculator makes an appearance. Anyone brave enough to admit they drink like a Frenchman?
Drink like a Frenchman? Pah! They are mere dilettantes; "Un aperitif, un demi carafe et un digestif*" at lunch forsooth! Might as well go the whole hog and sign the pledge.
Drink like a Saxon, now that might be a touch too far, especially at my age - mind, I had a good go at it as a young man. As a nation the Septics were the ones that got me; getting all sniffy about having a beer at lunchtime and then slamming lethal cocktails down with both hands come six o'clock.
Talking of which, it has gone past the Hour, time for a little something.
*That was the ration that the old French drink driving laws were based on.
OK, it is not full autonomy and it only works on the motorway, any motorway, but it is another little step in getting the technology up to where it needs to be .
@MrLlama - "Un aperitif, un demi carafe et un digestif*"
You learn something new every day on PB
The course of history would have been mighty different if the notorious lightweight Napoleon could have downed his pints like on Englishman. - Now if you'll excuse me, the Sun has gone down over Wiltshire and Dog & Duck awaits....!
I imagine there'll be IN/OUT debates before the referendum like when Nigel took on Cleggy.
Who do you want batting for your side?
Anna Soubry, I think, if there's still anything worth fighting for. Though I'm still far from convinced that there's going to be anything worthy of the name IN on the ballot paper. Looks like it'll be a choice of OUT or ALMOST OUT
Fear not! I don't think Cameron will be negotiating over anything more than what type of tea is served at EU summits!
@MrLlama - "Un aperitif, un demi carafe et un digestif*"
You learn something new every day on PB
The course of history would have been mighty different if the notorious lightweight Napoleon could have downed his pints like on Englishman. - Now if you'll excuse me, the Sun has gone down over Wiltshire and Dog & Duck awaits....!
Whereas as a young man in India, Wellington was known for the quality of his table, where claret would be drunk by the quart
What's your drinking nationality? - It’s that time again when the Booze calculator makes an appearance. Anyone brave enough to admit they drink like a Frenchman?
Drink like a Frenchman? Pah! They are mere dilettantes; "Un aperitif, un demi carafe et un digestif*" at lunch forsooth! Might as well go the whole hog and sign the pledge.
Drink like a Saxon, now that might be a touch too far, especially at my age - mind, I had a good go at it as a young man. As a nation the Septics were the ones that got me; getting all sniffy about having a beer at lunchtime and then slamming lethal cocktails down with both hands come six o'clock.
Talking of which, it has gone past the Hour, time for a little something.
*That was the ration that the old French drink driving laws were based on.
OK, it is not full autonomy and it only works on the motorway, any motorway, but it is another little step in getting the technology up to where it needs to be .
Blood pressure not raised one iota, thanks.
From the article:
Try it away from the motorway, for example, and you’ll be lucky to get 50ft before it steers you into a lamppost.
Manufacturers have been working on similar tech for autobahns for decades: ISTR there's some fairly ancient video of four of five German cars travelling at speed bumper-to-bumper.
But that's a long way away from what is needed. It'll be interesting to see if Tesla's approach survives the courts ...
There is a justifiable concern that any "In" vote would be taken as a sign that Britain was now fully committed to "ever closer union".
Can I suggest that as part of the process, a cross party committee is set up that monitors the extent to which the letter and spirit of agreements are being adhered to. This committee would contain 1/3 BOOers, 1/3 INners, and 1/3 Persuadable. (With a good smattering of lawyers.)
If an ECJ judgement or QMV decision were taken that it was felt exceeded the competences set out in the various treaties, it would be able to recommend (or even enact) a referendum on Britain's continued membership of the EU. Circumstances might include an attempt to enforce votes for prisoners (note: this would only be ECJ, not EHCR), likewise the way that QMV was used to over-rule Britain's treaty written opt-out. The committee could also monitor whether promised treaty change did or didn't occur, or the City's position was prejudiced.
What's your drinking nationality? - It’s that time again when the Booze calculator makes an appearance. Anyone brave enough to admit they drink like a Frenchman?
Drink like a Frenchman? Pah! They are mere dilettantes; "Un aperitif, un demi carafe et un digestif*" at lunch forsooth! Might as well go the whole hog and sign the pledge.
Drink like a Saxon, now that might be a touch too far, especially at my age - mind, I had a good go at it as a young man. As a nation the Septics were the ones that got me; getting all sniffy about having a beer at lunchtime and then slamming lethal cocktails down with both hands come six o'clock.
Talking of which, it has gone past the Hour, time for a little something.
*That was the ration that the old French drink driving laws were based on.
Kuwait for me, I'm afraid, Mr Llama!
Well of course it is, Cap'n Doc. That is the reason why your career as a pirate never really took off ("Yo, Ho, Ho and a cup of tea" doesn't really work) and the second reason why you can't make a career in the Church of England (one can't say "Another sherry, vicar?", if the vicar doesn't drink) . That said there have been some very good CofE people who didn't drink (what they did at communion, I don't know) but look closely and they all loved cricket.
There is a justifiable concern that any "In" vote would be taken as a sign that Britain was now fully committed to "ever closer union".
Can I suggest that as part of the process, a cross party committee is set up that monitors the extent to which the letter and spirit of agreements are being adhered to. This committee would contain 1/3 BOOers, 1/3 INners, and 1/3 Persuadable. (With a good smattering of lawyers.)
If an ECJ judgement or QMV decision were taken that it was felt exceeded the competences set out in the various treaties, it would be able to recommend (or even enact) a referendum on Britain's continued membership of the EU. Circumstances might include an attempt to enforce votes for prisoners (note: this would only be ECJ, not EHCR), likewise the way that QMV was used to over-rule Britain's treaty written opt-out. The committee could also monitor whether promised treaty change did or didn't occur, or the City's position was prejudiced.
That cross party committe would almost for sure have a pro-EU majority!
There is a justifiable concern that any "In" vote would be taken as a sign that Britain was now fully committed to "ever closer union".
Can I suggest that as part of the process, a cross party committee is set up that monitors the extent to which the letter and spirit of agreements are being adhered to. This committee would contain 1/3 BOOers, 1/3 INners, and 1/3 Persuadable. (With a good smattering of lawyers.)
If an ECJ judgement or QMV decision were taken that it was felt exceeded the competences set out in the various treaties, it would be able to recommend (or even enact) a referendum on Britain's continued membership of the EU. Circumstances might include an attempt to enforce votes for prisoners (note: this would only be ECJ, not EHCR), likewise the way that QMV was used to over-rule Britain's treaty written opt-out. The committee could also monitor whether promised treaty change did or didn't occur, or the City's position was prejudiced.
That cross party committe would almost for sure have a pro-EU majority!
Well, I would suggest it should have a substantial minority of constitutional lawyers. And I'd keep the remit as far as possible very narrow, clear and fact based.
The truth is that there are people on this site (and generally in the world) who are going to vote In in the EU referendum, but who regard the potential ECJ decision on votes for prisoners as exceeding its competences, and the treaties we have. They are the kind of people who -in the case of an In vote- I would hope would make up a substantial minority of people on the committee.
The purpose of the committee would not be to provide an excuse for leaving. It would be to ensure that the other side of any deal is kept.
@MrLlama - "Un aperitif, un demi carafe et un digestif*"
You learn something new every day on PB
The course of history would have been mighty different if the notorious lightweight Napoleon could have downed his pints like on Englishman. - Now if you'll excuse me, the Sun has gone down over Wiltshire and Dog & Duck awaits....!
Whereas as a young man in India, Wellington was known for the quality of his table, where claret would be drunk by the quart
Which must have taken a seriously strong constitution given the heat.
In the 1980s my job involved me attending a monthly inter-agency liaison meeting that always culminated with a curry at which the Bulgarian wine, "Bulls Blood", was served by the pint. It was normally only after the second glass that any real and useful exchange of views and information happened, before that inter-agency rivalry precluded anything worthwhile being said.
John McDonnell just declared on R4 that Jeremy Corbyn will be Labour leader in 2020, he will be shadow CofE, and Labour will win the GE. What are the odds on that lot coming in?
OK, it is not full autonomy and it only works on the motorway, any motorway, but it is another little step in getting the technology up to where it needs to be .
Blood pressure not raised one iota, thanks.
From the article:
Try it away from the motorway, for example, and you’ll be lucky to get 50ft before it steers you into a lamppost.
Manufacturers have been working on similar tech for autobahns for decades: ISTR there's some fairly ancient video of four of five German cars travelling at speed bumper-to-bumper.
But that's a long way away from what is needed. It'll be interesting to see if Tesla's approach survives the courts ...
Fair enough, it is but one small step, though one of many hundreds of steps that are being taken. I am sure the journey will reach its end one day and that day will be in your lifetime if not mine.
A few years ago I had the joy of using the automatic parking facility on a BMW in Bond Street right in front of a copper. His eyes nearly popped out of his head as the car reversed perfectly into what was I thought too small a space whilst I was waving at him with both hands.
Anyway onto more important things whilst you are here; are you up for Duxford on Sunday 10 July next year? I need to know soon as I want to buy the tickets before they all sell out.
Mind you, JM also stated that he wanted Chukka and Chris Leslie back on the team, there was no prospect of deselections and he had no idea why he would be referred to as "a nasty piece of work".
I have an hour to kill before subjecting myself to Booze Black Friday (not my idea). I see Christie's odds have shortened a tad in last few days. Could he pull something off in NH?
If you want to stop more UK integration into the EU following a yes vote, best option is to elect a more eurosceptic Tory as leader afterwards, on a platform of Cammo's renegotiation not going far enough. He could bring up all the stuff we want that Cameron kept quiet about. He won't get far with it but it'll scare the EU into not pushing things further. Bish bash bosh, no further integration!
John McDonnell just declared on R4 that Jeremy Corbyn will be Labour leader in 2020, he will be shadow CofE, and Labour will win the GE. What are the odds on that lot coming in?
LOL. How do I put an infinity sign into the comment box?
Carswell gets a lot of respect but is there honestly more of a market for libertarianism lite, than there is for anti-immigration populism? I don't think so. Doesn't mean that Farage is the best figurehead for it though.
Carswell gets a lot of respect but is there honestly more of a market for libertarianism lite, than there is for anti-immigration populism? I don't think so. Doesn't mean that Farage is the best figurehead for it though.
I suspect many people, the vast majority in fact, would have no idea what Carswell is on about if they discussed some of his ideas on democracy etc etc. Good that he's floating them, but its not going to be UKIP's key selling point.
I have an hour to kill before subjecting myself to Booze Black Friday (not my idea). I see Christie's odds have shortened a tad in last few days. Could he pull something off in NH?
He helps Trump.
Christie, Bush, Rubio are all eating each other's voter pool. He should be shorter than Bush (He isn't), but his current odds are about right.
If you want to stop more UK integration into the EU following a yes vote, best option is to elect a more eurosceptic Tory as leader afterwards, on a platform of Cammo's renegotiation not going far enough. He could bring up all the stuff we want that Cameron kept quiet about. He won't get far with it but it'll scare the EU into not pushing things further. Bish bash bosh, no further integration!
Surely if there has been a clear Remain vote then the negotiation has by definition gone far enough?
What margin of victory for Remain would be taken as a mandate for more integration?
If you want to stop more UK integration into the EU following a yes vote, best option is to elect a more eurosceptic Tory as leader afterwards, on a platform of Cammo's renegotiation not going far enough. He could bring up all the stuff we want that Cameron kept quiet about. He won't get far with it but it'll scare the EU into not pushing things further. Bish bash bosh, no further integration!
Surely if there has been a clear Remain vote then the negotiation has by definition gone far enough?
What margin of victory for Remain would be taken as a mandate for more integration?
Just look at how Scotland go for more powers after an in vote. Sending contradictory signals works. It don't matter it's not consistent!
Do I drop Pelle and bring back Aguero this weekend?
Yes.
This advice may not be given in the true spirit of camaraderie that you might expect.
Surely you should bring in Bobby Soldado or perhaps Sturridge.....
I have built up q healthy points lead over someone who normally thrashes me at the fantasy football as I got on Vardy early while he persisted with Aguero.
Mind you, JM also stated that he wanted Chukka and Chris Leslie back on the team, there was no prospect of deselections and he had no idea why he would be referred to as "a nasty piece of work".
Comments
EICIPM, anyone?
What do you think !?
However, I don't think he would be the right person to persuade the bulk of uncommitted voters, especially Labour or left-of-centre voters. His arguments come across as based on reasoning from abstract, generally libertarian, principles.
There's also the wider question of whether immigration should be at the heart of the Leave campaign; that seems to be at the heart of the Leave.EU/VoteLeave split.
Source? You do realise that already represents a shift towards Cameron if it's true. I wonder what more Santa and the 3 Kings will bring by February.
For example Stephen Gilbert who was CCHQ Director of Campaigning is now working part time for Remain.
Man's an utter star.
I expect more to follow
Current headline on the Kippergraph.
justin124 said:
'Callaghan did not become PM having just been Chancellor - which is what your original post implied. To find an example of a long serving Chancellor succeeding to the post of PM and then going on to win an election we have to go back to 1908 when Asquith took office - though even he had to be content with leading minority Governments following the 1910 elections. Neville Chamberlain never fought an election as PM whilst Baldwin was only Chancellor for 7 months and went on to lose his first election.
Re-Benn. He is not particularly leftwing unlike is father. Obviously not a Blairite either so he has the potential to be a unifying figure'
HYUFD said
'No rubbish as Major and Macmillan won after being Chancellor and the only other winner taking over in power, Eden, was Foreign Secretary so Osborne's only alternative would be Hammond '
For you to refer to my above comments as 'rubbish' simply betrays your ignorance frankly. Macmillan and Major held the office of Chancellor for barely a year. Neither can be said to have been long term Chancellors - they had barely settled into the role!
I see and as I thought another step in the negotiation. Good start.
Drink like a Saxon, now that might be a touch too far, especially at my age - mind, I had a good go at it as a young man. As a nation the Septics were the ones that got me; getting all sniffy about having a beer at lunchtime and then slamming lethal cocktails down with both hands come six o'clock.
Talking of which, it has gone past the Hour, time for a little something.
*That was the ration that the old French drink driving laws were based on.
As you say, this general abstract principle of "sovereignty" doesn't mean all that much to Joe Public: if something is good policy then people don't care whether it's set at Westminster level or European level (for example the Ashcroft focus groups found strong support for cross-EU co-operation for police forces and counterterrorism forces). "Leave" needs to focus on the tangible examples of BAD policy that come from Europe.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/comment/driven-by-tesla-model-s-autopilot/
OK, it is not full autonomy and it only works on the motorway, any motorway, but it is another little step in getting the technology up to where it needs to be .
You learn something new every day on PB
The course of history would have been mighty different if the notorious lightweight Napoleon could have downed his pints like on Englishman. - Now if you'll excuse me, the Sun has gone down over Wiltshire and Dog & Duck awaits....!
From the article: Manufacturers have been working on similar tech for autobahns for decades: ISTR there's some fairly ancient video of four of five German cars travelling at speed bumper-to-bumper.
But that's a long way away from what is needed. It'll be interesting to see if Tesla's approach survives the courts ...
Can I suggest that as part of the process, a cross party committee is set up that monitors the extent to which the letter and spirit of agreements are being adhered to. This committee would contain 1/3 BOOers, 1/3 INners, and 1/3 Persuadable. (With a good smattering of lawyers.)
If an ECJ judgement or QMV decision were taken that it was felt exceeded the competences set out in the various treaties, it would be able to recommend (or even enact) a referendum on Britain's continued membership of the EU. Circumstances might include an attempt to enforce votes for prisoners (note: this would only be ECJ, not EHCR), likewise the way that QMV was used to over-rule Britain's treaty written opt-out. The committee could also monitor whether promised treaty change did or didn't occur, or the City's position was prejudiced.
The truth is that there are people on this site (and generally in the world) who are going to vote In in the EU referendum, but who regard the potential ECJ decision on votes for prisoners as exceeding its competences, and the treaties we have. They are the kind of people who -in the case of an In vote- I would hope would make up a substantial minority of people on the committee.
The purpose of the committee would not be to provide an excuse for leaving. It would be to ensure that the other side of any deal is kept.
In the 1980s my job involved me attending a monthly inter-agency liaison meeting that always culminated with a curry at which the Bulgarian wine, "Bulls Blood", was served by the pint. It was normally only after the second glass that any real and useful exchange of views and information happened, before that inter-agency rivalry precluded anything worthwhile being said.
Oh yes, here actually.
This advice may not be given in the true spirit of camaraderie that you might expect.
But that's a long way away from what is needed. It'll be interesting to see if Tesla's approach survives the courts ...
Fair enough, it is but one small step, though one of many hundreds of steps that are being taken. I am sure the journey will reach its end one day and that day will be in your lifetime if not mine.
A few years ago I had the joy of using the automatic parking facility on a BMW in Bond Street right in front of a copper. His eyes nearly popped out of his head as the car reversed perfectly into what was I thought too small a space whilst I was waving at him with both hands.
Anyway onto more important things whilst you are here; are you up for Duxford on Sunday 10 July next year? I need to know soon as I want to buy the tickets before they all sell out.
P.S. How are you getting with Horizons/1.5?
Maybe he was just pissed.
I have an hour to kill before subjecting myself to Booze Black Friday (not my idea). I see Christie's odds have shortened a tad in last few days. Could he pull something off in NH?
Doesn't mean that Farage is the best figurehead for it though.
http://order-order.com/2015/12/18/hodges-streak-date-confirmed/
Christie, Bush, Rubio are all eating each other's voter pool. He should be shorter than Bush (He isn't), but his current odds are about right.
What margin of victory for Remain would be taken as a mandate for more integration?
So the odds are ∞ to 1 against.
PPP National after debate
Trump 34 +8
Cruz 18 +4
Rubio 13 0
Bush 7 +2
Carson 6 -13
Christie 5 +2
Fiorina 4 0
Huckabee 4 0
Kasich 2 -1
Paul 2 0
This is a good poll for Trump.
Funny fact, 30% of republicans want to bomb fictional Agrabah (from Aladdin) vs 13% who are against.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/GOPResults.pdf
Boston Herald N.H half before, half after the debate.
Trump 26 -2
Cruz 12 +7
Rubio 12 +6
Christie 11 +8
Bush 10 +1
kasich 8 +2
Carson 5 -11
Fiorina 6 -4
Paul 3 -2
This is a bad poll for Trump.
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/2015/12/nh_poll_foes_gain_on_donald_trump_hillary_clinton_pulls_even
Opinion Savvy Florida, after debate, their last one was early September:
Trump 30 +1
Cruz 20 +17
Rubio 15 +9
Bush 13 -6
Carson 8 -17
Christie 6 +4
Paul 3 +3
Fiorina 3 -2
Kasich 1 -2
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/FL-GOP-PP-12.17.15.pdf
St.Pete Polls Florida, before debate, their last one was from July :
Trump 36 +10
Cruz 22 +18
Rubio 17 +7
Bush 9 -11
Carson 6 +1
Christie 3 +3
Kasich 2 -2
Fiorina 1 +1
Paul 1 -2
http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2015_StatePRI_REP_PRES_December_15_LU47.pdf