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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If it’s Farage versus Carswell then there can only be one outcome – the current leader will win
Nigel Farage on Douglas Carswell: "We have got one person going round the country giving the impression UKIP is split – that can’t go on."
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I could see him retaining his seat as an Indy if he chose to jump again and resign his own whip.
If Nige stands down, that would clearly be a win for Carswell, but would it really be a win for Nige if his only MP left the party?
He treats UKIP as his personal plaything and feels his owns their brand.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiH3L3XpJHY
He's always struck me as quite hard to dislike, but obviously he presses some buttons with some people that I just don't have.
Loitering around Wales in the hope of becoming a Welsh Assembly member.
As with the Trump/Salmond spat, not an entirely undesirable outcome
Really it just seems like he is not set up for party politics, he's too individualistic, which you might be able to get away with if you were also quiet, but even if he was, as sole UKIP MP he won't be allowed to be quiet.
Were Remain to win that seals the UK's future in the EU for a generation.
You have as weak a grasp on grudges as you do history.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/06/22/the-most-important-result-on-may-7th/
I am the President of the PB Mark Reckless fan club
Just read Carswell's comments. I'm not sure he has any idea on who makes up the bulk of UKIP supporters and voters. It has been obvious for a while that UKIP draw more from Labour's wwc voters than they do from the Tory radical libertarian right. There are a lot more of them than there are of us.
Myself, Richard Tyndall and Rob Smithson don't really add up to a party. Targeting such a small number of voters seems counter productive for UKIP given they are polling in the early teens and scored 12% in the GE and could push up towards 20% if Corbyn stays in place for 2020. Getting rid of Nigel is a must, make him the party chairman or something but they need a new leader with new drive and energy. Paul Nuttall would be my bet. Northern, speaks well and can galvanise the wwc voters better than Nigel. Keep Nigel there to "speak the unspeakable" about immigration etc... But get new energy in there as well.
Even treaties can be ignored. Cf Troyes.
Oh well, at least it gives the usual suspects a bit of fun, its Christmas so I'll be charitable.
The Tory Party doesn't stab its leaders in the back, we stab them in the front, usually very publicly.
I have read articles saying that if Britain comes out, the Irish might have to come out, like it or not.
There is possibly still some mileage in the Forth Road Bridge fiasco, especially with helpful idiots like Lesley Riddoch joining in.
Ans Swinney's "Tory" budget has not received universal acclaim
Otherwise the advantage to the Conservatives of letting him swing in the wind seems overwhelming.
Don't think it would have saved 40 seats but it might have saved another 15 or so.
However, we are, sadly, where we are.
Clacton
Carswell (Ind) Ind GAIN from UKIP.
It'd take the serial moaners out of EU and let them federalise properly.
http://www.theguardian.com/higher-education-network/2015/dec/18/my-students-have-paid-9000-and-now-they-think-they-own-me
Although the author does have some what of a point, it is also the not living in the real world that makes me laugh...
"I still don’t know what prompted this flyer campaign – rumour has it that it’s linked to a group of students who were denied assignment extensions – but I could not help but become annoyed at the blunt, consumerist language."
Protesting fine, but how dare they, how very dare they, use consumerist language....Next thing they will be saying statues of Rhodes was ok.
"He gave an account of a student who had requested a tutorial at 8pm, because his office hours of 9-11am"
Imagine if the rest of the world ran where meetings could only be held rigidly between 9 and 11. 8pm is obviously unreasonable, but this notion of academics only making themselves available for very small windows once a week because they are "ohhh so busy and important".
"teaching still only equates to 33% of my workload"
EDIT I see @Wanderer is another great mind
Would have been hilarious, campaigning aggressively against their own record in Government
As is the complete absence of a link between their own green agenda and the destruction of the industry.
Does anyone know if Carswell is still in control of the £350,000 pa (Mr Carswell has said he will accept no more than that)?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2F_hGwD26g
:eejits:
Where Sunil? We need that "Stick it up your Junker" headline.
The students here might not be as demanding as that but we - as a profession - have got to sort out what we're selling them and how we're doing it. There's a mismatch in expectations and I have come to the opinion that we're not doing enough to frame those expectations in the first weeks of the degree and we're not doing enough to do the right thing for the remaining three years. A big chunk of the academics I've met are not doing the basics in a clear, professional manner.
In a comment in the thread, for example, someone says they're up to 2 am dealing with student emails. Set your email to send one reply to a student account a day. The contract says an email reply within 48 hours. You're doing your part of the bargain. Why are you up at 0200 doing that?
Office hours are constrained by your own timetable - I have no office hours two days of the week as I'm busy with teaching and I spare one day for research. Here, we're meant to make 3 hours per 10 credits available. It's a case of being clear what you're prepared to give and what is acceptable. Explaining why its 9 - 11am in light of other commitments will get a much better response than a blank refusal. A placement student emailed me to arrange a skype chat at 1700 on a Saturday. No chance, but we worked out a compromise that dealt with the time difference (and his international rugby career).
"teaching still only equates to 33% of my workload"
While it kind of does, that's a bit naive. We've 3 sets of duties - research, admin, teaching. Don't waste time on admin. Seriously. Find the best way to do a 8/10 job and jog on. Same with the teaching - find ways to be innovative, to get things done more efficiently, use technology wisely.
Oh and as for the headline
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/530051168790413313
If a man as self evidently dim as Carswell still thinks we should leave the EU then that strikes me as as good a reason as any to stay.
Read more: http://www.bathchronicle.co.uk/MP-Jacob-Rees-Mogg-happy-let-fake-Jake-Twitter/story-19838041-detail/story.html#ixzz3ug6PT4CZ
5 out of 7 of the past leaders of the party quitting citing Farage as their reason!
9 out of 18 elected UKIP MEPs (pre 2014) parting company with the party citing Farage, or at least his dictatorial behaviour, as the main reason!
http://ukip-vs-eukip.com/ukip-members-quit/
Right now, more than ever, there needs to be a coherent and reasonable anti-EU movement with a clear message and vision for the UK to be able to choose a positive path other than "ever closer union". Cameron trying to make it all about benefits for Polish plumbers is absurd and almost insulting frankly. It should be about much bigger issues than that, but currently it's not.
I can see us getting a Scotland style narrowish but still decisive vote to stay in, with most of the votes having been cast by people who have been very poorly served by the politicians in the sense that a proper debate on either side has simply not happened. What a waste.
On Mark Reckless defecting: "I can't say the word c**t but he's a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse."
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/30/memo-to-the-tories-never-hate-your-enemies-it-affects-your-judgement/
12-15 months ago I was arguing on here for the LD's leaving the coalition at or around Christmas 2014. The general view then was that I was posting rubbish, and in particular that Osborne would have produced a give-away budget, designed to be torn up after victory, which would have opened the way for a "can you REALLY tust the tories" campaign.
I think "what we've achieved" would have saved some seats, and in particular NOT bombing Libya and Syria would have held on to a few of the LibLab votes.
Many people think that 19th Century gunboat diplomacy, for that is what Tory policy often seems to be, is outmoded.