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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Turning on taxes. The tectonic plates of Scotland’s politic

SystemSystem Posts: 12,222
edited December 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Turning on taxes. The tectonic plates of Scotland’s politics are moving

We have heard a lot in the last few years about the desire for Scottish independence.  This has often been couched in general terms as a desire for a fairer and more prosperous Scotland based around a social democratic consensus.  Specific large scale points of difference from current UK policy, however, have been largely elusive.  While the Scottish Parliament has substantial powers, so far the Sc…

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Comments

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Arc of Prosperity ....

    Titter .... :smile:
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Second!
  • Peak SNP?

    FMQs will be interesting....

    Q Does zero tolerance of tax avoidance extend to SNP MPs?

    A Look at the polls!

    Q Is your Transport Minister a knave or a fool?

    A Look at the polls!

    Q What did the FM know about the Forth Road Bridge when she was Cabinet Secretary for Infrastructure?

    A Look at the polls!

    Q Will there be a second referendum commitment in the SNP manifesto?

    A Look at the polls!

    Q Has the Scottish Govt redone their sums reflecting $40/oil

    A Look at the polls!

    Q Why did the former FM say in 2013 that Sindy would support Syrian air strikes?

    A Look at the polls!
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Inevitably, the refreshing breeze of Corbynism will go swirling clangorously and vibrantly northwards across the border, and the hated and despotic SNP régime will be swept away by a landslide victory for the Scottish People's New Scottish People's and Peasants' Party (Hoxhaist-Maoist) which will win 128 seats. The sole opposition will be a lone renegade bourgeois Lib Dem in Shetland, who will escape over the border into Norway within hours of the revolution.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    edited December 2015
    Another good article from Mr Meeks as he is now. It is quite amazing that five months before the elections no-one is discussing the policy areas in which the Scottish government has authority such as health and education. Maybe given recent events Transport and Policing might be starting points for the opposition parties?
  • For as long as the SNP own the Saltire they will run Scotland and win huge majorities.
  • Peak SNP?

    FMQs will be interesting....

    Q Does zero tolerance of tax avoidance extend to SNP MPs?

    A Look at the polls!

    Q Is your Transport Minister a knave or a fool?

    A Look at the polls!

    Q What did the FM know about the Forth Road Bridge when she was Cabinet Secretary for Infrastructure?

    A Look at the polls!

    Q Will there be a second referendum commitment in the SNP manifesto?

    A Look at the polls!

    Q Has the Scottish Govt redone their sums reflecting $40/oil

    A Look at the polls!

    Q Why did the former FM say in 2013 that Sindy would support Syrian air strikes?

    A Look at the polls!

    She's right, though. The Scots undoubtedly have the government they want.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    A rather thoughtful piece from Douglas Murray. If you keep shouting down legitimate discussion as racist and Islamophobic, then eventually you end up with Donald Trump.

    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/the-left-is-to-blame-for-the-creation-of-donald-trump/
  • Sandpit said:

    A rather thoughtful piece from Douglas Murray. If you keep shouting down legitimate discussion as racist and Islamophobic, then eventually you end up with Donald Trump.

    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/the-left-is-to-blame-for-the-creation-of-donald-trump/

    It's not the right's fault that a right wing lunatic is saying very right wing things. Hmmmm.

  • Sandpit said:

    A rather thoughtful piece from Douglas Murray. If you keep shouting down legitimate discussion as racist and Islamophobic, then eventually you end up with Donald Trump.

    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/the-left-is-to-blame-for-the-creation-of-donald-trump/

    yeah cause there's hardly any right-wing talk shows or tv shows or anything in the US. it's political correctness gone mad
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,005

    Peak SNP?

    FMQs will be interesting....

    Q Does zero tolerance of tax avoidance extend to SNP MPs?

    A Look at the polls!

    Q Is your Transport Minister a knave or a fool?

    A Look at the polls!

    Q What did the FM know about the Forth Road Bridge when she was Cabinet Secretary for Infrastructure?

    A Look at the polls!

    Q Will there be a second referendum commitment in the SNP manifesto?

    A Look at the polls!

    Q Has the Scottish Govt redone their sums reflecting $40/oil

    A Look at the polls!

    Q Why did the former FM say in 2013 that Sindy would support Syrian air strikes?

    A Look at the polls!

    She's right, though. The Scots undoubtedly have the government they want.

    The SNP have huge leeway right now. The Scots are not for seeing the flaws in their governing party, although there is much that is very poor quality and would not have been tolerated by another.

    What am I talking about? Labour was tolerated for decades and could still give a masterclass to the SNP about piss-poor management and pocket-lining. The Scots people may have hoped for better from the SNP, but I suspect those decades of Labour fiefdoms have left them with ridiculously low expectations of their government.... The SNP are safe until they sink lower than the Scots have known in recent history.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175
    Sandpit said:

    A rather thoughtful piece from Douglas Murray. If you keep shouting down legitimate discussion as racist and Islamophobic, then eventually you end up with Donald Trump.

    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/the-left-is-to-blame-for-the-creation-of-donald-trump/

    Nailed it - years of playing the race card here has all but destroyed the notion of free speech and the Labour party are doing it again in the London mayorals.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175

    Sandpit said:

    A rather thoughtful piece from Douglas Murray. If you keep shouting down legitimate discussion as racist and Islamophobic, then eventually you end up with Donald Trump.

    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/the-left-is-to-blame-for-the-creation-of-donald-trump/

    It's not the right's fault that a right wing lunatic is saying very right wing things. Hmmmm.

    While SO is busy playing the mental health card - you couldn't make it up.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    Alastair is right that the discussion of actual policies, other than Independence, plays a remarkably small part in Scottish political life. This is partly because in many respects the SNP minority and majority administrations have largely been a continuation of the policies of SLAB focussing on centralisation, producer interests and bureaucratic solutions.

    I think the first crack in this has been national policing, the administration of which has been an unmitigated disaster and caused considerable irritation everywhere except Strathclyde (whose model has been imposed on the rest of us).

    It will be interesting to see if the fiasco of the Bridge and the terrible price being paid for the populist policy of abolishing the tolls strikes home. At this point it is the closely linked decision to postpone what turned out to be essential maintenance that is getting the attention. There is also considerable hostility to the absurd idea of having a named employee of the State responsible for every child, a truly ridiculous waste of scarce resources.

    The failure to modernise or reduce administration costs in the NHS gets less attention and the fact that several cancer drugs available in England are not available here, once again because of the lost income of free prescriptions, seems to have little traction except with those affected.

    Although there is a general perception that all is not well in our education system, an awareness that the number of funded places for Scots at University is falling (the result of yet another "free" policy) and that there have been severe cut backs in college education the SNP have largely been successful in blaming Westminster for the cuts rather than their own policies.

    As I know quite a number of people who are earning considerably more than average tax is an increasing concern but Alastair is right that so far it is a dog that hasn't barked in that the SNP line has been we can have all those goodies for free and without additional taxation. That cannot continue. How can the SNP be anti austerity and yet not want to increase the taxes required to pay for it?

    At least 2 generations of Scottish politicians have been focussed on constitutional issues and have addressed almost every other question, to the extent that they have, through that lens. It really is time they got back to the day job and politics in Scotland got somewhere near normal. But I am not holding my breath.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,422
    I can't see past SNP dominance next Holyrood election.

    No bet for me.
  • felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    A rather thoughtful piece from Douglas Murray. If you keep shouting down legitimate discussion as racist and Islamophobic, then eventually you end up with Donald Trump.

    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/the-left-is-to-blame-for-the-creation-of-donald-trump/

    It's not the right's fault that a right wing lunatic is saying very right wing things. Hmmmm.

    While SO is busy playing the mental health card - you couldn't make it up.

    An alternative explanation for Trump might be that for years the Republican party has refused to tackle the increasingly inflammatory language of the Tea party and has, in fact, continuously pandered to it, so emboldening those on the lunatic right - such as Trump - to go further and further. They have never had their right to free speech shut down; instead, they have used it freely and forcibly to say what they believe.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,539
    Sandpit said:

    A rather thoughtful piece from Douglas Murray. If you keep shouting down legitimate discussion as racist and Islamophobic, then eventually you end up with Donald Trump.

    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/the-left-is-to-blame-for-the-creation-of-donald-trump/

    Indeed.

    On the other hand, illegitimate discussion can be racist and/or Islamophobic. A problem is that what is 'legitimate' and 'illegitimate' varies depending on your viewpoint.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JohnLoony said:

    Inevitably, the refreshing breeze of Corbynism will go swirling clangorously and vibrantly northwards across the border, and the hated and despotic SNP régime will be swept away by a landslide victory for the Scottish People's New Scottish People's and Peasants' Party (Hoxhaist-Maoist) which will win 128 seats. The sole opposition will be a lone renegade bourgeois Lib Dem in Shetland, who will escape over the border into Norway within hours of the revolution.

    You are wasted in the Tories! Top Trotskyism writer on PB.

    Peak Nat? If Labour was not in such disarray then I might believe it. The SNP will have to accrue far more scandals before they get chucked out.
  • MikeK

    Mike Smithson has asked you before and is now telling you, you are no longer permitted to post anything to do with Islam or Muslims on here.

    You've posted graphic, inaccurate stuff, and you've in the past admitted you despise Islam, so on that basis no more as it derails PB threads.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    For the avoidance of doubt though I fear Alastair has wasted his money on his no overall majority bet. The collapse of SLAB, the death of Scottish Liberalism and the persistent weakness of the Tories puts the SNP in a similar position to which the Tories might find themselves in 2020 if Labour persist with Corbyn: no alternative that is even vaguely credible.

    I expect the Lib Dems to lose more seats, the Tories to make 4 or 5 gains, Labour to lose quite a few seats (but probably stay just ahead of the Tories) and the SNP, if anything, to slightly increase their current majority.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,143
    viewcode said:

    Mortimer said:

    Sean_F said:

    MikeL said:

    Whenever I hear the phrase "social conservatism" I'm genuinely baffled about what people are actually talking about.

    Banning gay marriage?
    Banning abortion?

    Can anyone actually provide a list (of say at least 5 items) of specific "social conservative" policies that might realistically actually be introduced by a UK Government?

    Inter alia, repealing the Human Rights Act: reinstating the Primary Purpose Rule; leaving the EU; repealing the Racial and Religious Hatred Act; abolishing the Equality and Human Rights Commission; repealing the Hunting Act; reinstating Catholic adoption agencies; permitting smoking rooms in public houses and private members' clubs; ending compulsory ethnic monitoring and targeting in public sector bodies; reinstating the assisted places scheme. With the exception of leaving the EU, these would restore the status quo pre-Blair.
    I am not a social conservative and I agree with every one of those proposals.

    They are Libertarian proposals.
    Repealing the Human Rights Act is not a libertarian proposal.
    I would argue otherwise - what fundamental and necessary rights not protected by other laws would we lose? Britain was pretty fair and just in 1996.

    The problem with HRA is that it doesn't force concomitant responsibilities on individuals.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175
    DavidL said:

    For the avoidance of doubt though I fear Alastair has wasted his money on his no overall majority bet. The collapse of SLAB, the death of Scottish Liberalism and the persistent weakness of the Tories puts the SNP in a similar position to which the Tories might find themselves in 2020 if Labour persist with Corbyn: no alternative that is even vaguely credible.

    I expect the Lib Dems to lose more seats, the Tories to make 4 or 5 gains, Labour to lose quite a few seats (but probably stay just ahead of the Tories) and the SNP, if anything, to slightly increase their current majority.

    That seems a reasonably likely scenario to me also - it seems a large number of our fellow Scots have enthusiastically embraced the victim mentality and this blinds them almost completely to rational thought. To think what a mess they'd be in right now thanks to the oil price drop.
  • DavidL said:

    For the avoidance of doubt though I fear Alastair has wasted his money on his no overall majority bet. The collapse of SLAB, the death of Scottish Liberalism and the persistent weakness of the Tories puts the SNP in a similar position to which the Tories might find themselves in 2020 if Labour persist with Corbyn: no alternative that is even vaguely credible.

    I expect the Lib Dems to lose more seats, the Tories to make 4 or 5 gains, Labour to lose quite a few seats (but probably stay just ahead of the Tories) and the SNP, if anything, to slightly increase their current majority.

    Yep, there will be an SNP tsunami in May. They look set to win every single constituency seat.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2015
    Regarding Trump...

    'The Gresham’s law of extremism, that the more extreme drives out the less extreme, is one of the basic rules of political mechanics which operate in this field: it is a corollary of the general principle that no political power exists without being used.

    Both the general law and its Gresham’s corollary point, in contemporary circumstances, towards the resort to physical violence, in the form of firearms or high explosive, as being so probable as to be predicted with virtual certainty. The experience of the last decade and more, all round the world, shows that acts of violence, however apparently irrational or inappropriate their targets, precipitate a frenzied search on the part of the society attacked to discover and remedy more and more grievances, real or imaginary, among those from the violence is supposed to emanate or on whose behalf it is supposed to be exercised. Those commanding a position of political leverage would then be superhuman if they could refrain from pointing to the acts of terrorism and, while condemning them, declaring that further and faster concessions and grants of privilege are the only means to avoid such acts being repeated on a rising scale. We know that those who thus argue will always find a ready hearing. This is what produces the gearing effect of terrorism in the contemporary world, yielding huge results from acts of violence perpetrated by minimal numbers. It is not, I repeat again and again, that the mass of a particular population are violently or criminally disposed. Far from it; that population soon becomes itself the prisoner of the violence and machinations of an infinitely small minority among it. Just a few thugs, a few shots, a few bombs at the right place and time—and that is enough for disproportionate consequences to
    follow.'

    http://traditionalbritain.org/blog/road-national-suicide/
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    A rather thoughtful piece from Douglas Murray. If you keep shouting down legitimate discussion as racist and Islamophobic, then eventually you end up with Donald Trump.

    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/the-left-is-to-blame-for-the-creation-of-donald-trump/

    It's not the right's fault that a right wing lunatic is saying very right wing things. Hmmmm.

    While SO is busy playing the mental health card - you couldn't make it up.

    An alternative explanation for Trump might be that for years the Republican party has refused to tackle the increasingly inflammatory language of the Tea party and has, in fact, continuously pandered to it, so emboldening those on the lunatic right - such as Trump - to go further and further. They have never had their right to free speech shut down; instead, they have used it freely and forcibly to say what they believe.

    A large number of people take a different view about Mr. Trump's views - your labelling him and by implication them, as' lunatics' is unlikely .o change their minds. Surely far better to defeat his arguments with rational responses to his errors.
  • Sandpit said:

    A rather thoughtful piece from Douglas Murray. If you keep shouting down legitimate discussion as racist and Islamophobic, then eventually you end up with Donald Trump.

    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/the-left-is-to-blame-for-the-creation-of-donald-trump/

    It's not the right's fault that a right wing lunatic is saying very right wing things. Hmmmm.

    Everyone is free to read the Daily Mail or not to. And everyone who does is free to believe that everyone who doesn't is morally vicious and should be put to death.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Unless we see a reverse of the voting patterns of 2010/2011 or some ludicrously unlikely split vote AMS maths I cannot see beyond a SNP majority.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'SNP line has been we can have all those goodies for free and without additional taxation. That cannot continue'

    Oh I suspect there is lots of mileage in that yet. And the next position will be 'we can have all those goodies paid for by a handful of the super-rich paying their fair share' or similar. Labour has been running with that line for many years.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175

    Sandpit said:

    A rather thoughtful piece from Douglas Murray. If you keep shouting down legitimate discussion as racist and Islamophobic, then eventually you end up with Donald Trump.

    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/the-left-is-to-blame-for-the-creation-of-donald-trump/

    It's not the right's fault that a right wing lunatic is saying very right wing things. Hmmmm.

    Everyone is free to read the Daily Mail or not to. And everyone who does is free to believe that everyone who doesn't is morally vicious and should be put to death.
    Somewhat hyperbolic view of the typical reader of the Daily Mail.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040

    DavidL said:

    For the avoidance of doubt though I fear Alastair has wasted his money on his no overall majority bet. The collapse of SLAB, the death of Scottish Liberalism and the persistent weakness of the Tories puts the SNP in a similar position to which the Tories might find themselves in 2020 if Labour persist with Corbyn: no alternative that is even vaguely credible.

    I expect the Lib Dems to lose more seats, the Tories to make 4 or 5 gains, Labour to lose quite a few seats (but probably stay just ahead of the Tories) and the SNP, if anything, to slightly increase their current majority.

    Yep, there will be an SNP tsunami in May. They look set to win every single constituency seat.

    Not sure I would go that far. I think the Tories may well hold onto their 2 seats in the borders, the Lib Dems may hold onto 1 of their seats in the far north (although yesterday's embarrassment might not help) and it is possible Labour might hold on to something somewhere, most likely in Edinburgh. The way the Scottish system works, however, is that that will mean the SNP get pretty much no list seats so although it will give them a majority it will be far less decisive than a FPTP system would be.
  • felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    A rather thoughtful piece from Douglas Murray. If you keep shouting down legitimate discussion as racist and Islamophobic, then eventually you end up with Donald Trump.

    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/the-left-is-to-blame-for-the-creation-of-donald-trump/

    It's not the right's fault that a right wing lunatic is saying very right wing things. Hmmmm.

    Everyone is free to read the Daily Mail or not to. And everyone who does is free to believe that everyone who doesn't is morally vicious and should be put to death.
    Somewhat hyperbolic view of the typical reader of the Daily Mail.
    It would be if I suggested that they exercised their freedom. Only the ones who post here do that, however :o

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A Trump counter e-petition is available here:

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/114907
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,539
    isam said:

    Regarding Trump...

    'The Gresham’s law of extremism, that the more extreme drives out the less extreme, is one of the basic rules of political mechanics which operate in this field: it is a corollary of the general principle that no political power exists without being used.

    Both the general law and its Gresham’s corollary point, in contemporary circumstances, towards the resort to physical violence, in the form of firearms or high explosive, as being so probable as to be predicted with virtual certainty. The experience of the last decade and more, all round the world, shows that acts of violence, however apparently irrational or inappropriate their targets, precipitate a frenzied search on the part of the society attacked to discover and remedy more and more grievances, real or imaginary, among those from the violence is supposed to emanate or on whose behalf it is supposed to be exercised. Those commanding a position of political leverage would then be superhuman if they could refrain from pointing to the acts of terrorism and, while condemning them, declaring that further and faster concessions and grants of privilege are the only means to avoid such acts being repeated on a rising scale. We know that those who thus argue will always find a ready hearing. This is what produces the gearing effect of terrorism in the contemporary world, yielding huge results from acts of violence perpetrated by minimal numbers. It is not, I repeat again and again, that the mass of a particular population are violently or criminally disposed. Far from it; that population soon becomes itself the prisoner of the violence and machinations of an infinitely small minority among it. Just a few thugs, a few shots, a few bombs at the right place and time—and that is enough for disproportionate consequences to
    follow.'

    http://traditionalbritain.org/blog/road-national-suicide/

    Sounds like utter rubbish to me, especially where there are real and actual grievances.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alistair said:

    Unless we see a reverse of the voting patterns of 2010/2011 or some ludicrously unlikely split vote AMS maths I cannot see beyond a SNP majority.

    Events dear boy...

    The Bridge is key. It's highly visible, massively disruptive, and has SNP fingerprints all over it. There is a direct correlation between abolishing the tolls (which the SNP have been trumpeting for years) and cancelling the maintenance (which the SNP have admitted) and the closure

    If it opens in January, maybe limited fallout. But it might not.
  • isam said:

    Regarding Trump...

    'The Gresham’s law of extremism, that the more extreme drives out the less extreme, is one of the basic rules of political mechanics which operate in this field: it is a corollary of the general principle that no political power exists without being used.

    Both the general law and its Gresham’s corollary point, in contemporary circumstances, towards the resort to physical violence, in the form of firearms or high explosive, as being so probable as to be predicted with virtual certainty. The experience of the last decade and more, all round the world, shows that acts of violence, however apparently irrational or inappropriate their targets, precipitate a frenzied search on the part of the society attacked to discover and remedy more and more grievances, real or imaginary, among those from the violence is supposed to emanate or on whose behalf it is supposed to be exercised. Those commanding a position of political leverage would then be superhuman if they could refrain from pointing to the acts of terrorism and, while condemning them, declaring that further and faster concessions and grants of privilege are the only means to avoid such acts being repeated on a rising scale. We know that those who thus argue will always find a ready hearing. This is what produces the gearing effect of terrorism in the contemporary world, yielding huge results from acts of violence perpetrated by minimal numbers. It is not, I repeat again and again, that the mass of a particular population are violently or criminally disposed. Far from it; that population soon becomes itself the prisoner of the violence and machinations of an infinitely small minority among it. Just a few thugs, a few shots, a few bombs at the right place and time—and that is enough for disproportionate consequences to
    follow.'

    http://traditionalbritain.org/blog/road-national-suicide/

    Sounds like utter rubbish to me, especially where there are real and actual grievances.
    It's Enoch Powell....

  • felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    A rather thoughtful piece from Douglas Murray. If you keep shouting down legitimate discussion as racist and Islamophobic, then eventually you end up with Donald Trump.

    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/the-left-is-to-blame-for-the-creation-of-donald-trump/

    It's not the right's fault that a right wing lunatic is saying very right wing things. Hmmmm.

    While SO is busy playing the mental health card - you couldn't make it up.

    An alternative explanation for Trump might be that for years the Republican party has refused to tackle the increasingly inflammatory language of the Tea party and has, in fact, continuously pandered to it, so emboldening those on the lunatic right - such as Trump - to go further and further. They have never had their right to free speech shut down; instead, they have used it freely and forcibly to say what they believe.

    A large number of people take a different view about Mr. Trump's views - your labelling him and by implication them, as' lunatics' is unlikely .o change their minds. Surely far better to defeat his arguments with rational responses to his errors.

    I am not seeking to change anyone's mind. I am expressing an opinion about Trump. I do not consider those who support him to be lunatics. I think that there are any number of reasons why he gets a hearing and support - most of them very complex. The main thrust of my argument on here is that the idea Trump has arisen because the Tea party and other right wing groups in the US have been muzzled by politically correct left-wingers is plainly absurd, as anyone who has watched Fox, listened to radio phone-in shows and watched the Republican right in action in Congress can attest.

  • felix said:

    DavidL said:

    For the avoidance of doubt though I fear Alastair has wasted his money on his no overall majority bet. The collapse of SLAB, the death of Scottish Liberalism and the persistent weakness of the Tories puts the SNP in a similar position to which the Tories might find themselves in 2020 if Labour persist with Corbyn: no alternative that is even vaguely credible.

    I expect the Lib Dems to lose more seats, the Tories to make 4 or 5 gains, Labour to lose quite a few seats (but probably stay just ahead of the Tories) and the SNP, if anything, to slightly increase their current majority.

    That seems a reasonably likely scenario to me also - it seems a large number of our fellow Scots have enthusiastically embraced the victim mentality and this blinds them almost completely to rational thought. To think what a mess they'd be in right now thanks to the oil price drop.

    The Scots, like many other people across the UK, have become increasingly isolated from and contemptuous of the Westminster political machine. The SNP's genius has been to use the Saltire to hoover up their votes. In the rest of the UK there is no equivalent party for people of differing political views to coalesce around.

  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    isam said:

    Regarding Trump...

    'The Gresham’s law of extremism, that the more extreme drives out the less extreme, is one of the basic rules of political mechanics which operate in this field: it is a corollary of the general principle that no political power exists without being used.

    Both the general law and its Gresham’s corollary point, in contemporary circumstances, towards the resort to physical violence, in the form of firearms or high explosive, as being so probable as to be predicted with virtual certainty. The experience of the last decade and more, all round the world, shows that acts of violence, however apparently irrational or inappropriate their targets, precipitate a frenzied search on the part of the society attacked to discover and remedy more and more grievances, real or imaginary, among those from the violence is supposed to emanate or on whose behalf it is supposed to be exercised. Those commanding a position of political leverage would then be superhuman if they could refrain from pointing to the acts of terrorism and, while condemning them, declaring that further and faster concessions and grants of privilege are the only means to avoid such acts being repeated on a rising scale. We know that those who thus argue will always find a ready hearing. This is what produces the gearing effect of terrorism in the contemporary world, yielding huge results from acts of violence perpetrated by minimal numbers. It is not, I repeat again and again, that the mass of a particular population are violently or criminally disposed. Far from it; that population soon becomes itself the prisoner of the violence and machinations of an infinitely small minority among it. Just a few thugs, a few shots, a few bombs at the right place and time—and that is enough for disproportionate consequences to
    follow.'

    http://traditionalbritain.org/blog/road-national-suicide/

    Good morning all. Insufficient paragraphs to be easily parsed by my aged eyes. From what I can glean, there's some merit to the argument. The US has spent well over a trillion dollars in the War on Terror post 9/1.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    For the avoidance of doubt though I fear Alastair has wasted his money on his no overall majority bet. The collapse of SLAB, the death of Scottish Liberalism and the persistent weakness of the Tories puts the SNP in a similar position to which the Tories might find themselves in 2020 if Labour persist with Corbyn: no alternative that is even vaguely credible.

    I expect the Lib Dems to lose more seats, the Tories to make 4 or 5 gains, Labour to lose quite a few seats (but probably stay just ahead of the Tories) and the SNP, if anything, to slightly increase their current majority.

    Yep, there will be an SNP tsunami in May. They look set to win every single constituency seat.

    Not sure I would go that far. I think the Tories may well hold onto their 2 seats in the borders, the Lib Dems may hold onto 1 of their seats in the far north (although yesterday's embarrassment might not help) and it is possible Labour might hold on to something somewhere, most likely in Edinburgh. The way the Scottish system works, however, is that that will mean the SNP get pretty much no list seats so although it will give them a majority it will be far less decisive than a FPTP system would be.

    If the Scottish system leads to a Parliament that is more representative of the views of Scottish voters than the Commons is of the views of UK voters that has to be a good thing.

  • runnymede said:

    'SNP line has been we can have all those goodies for free and without additional taxation. That cannot continue'

    Oh I suspect there is lots of mileage in that yet. And the next position will be 'we can have all those goodies paid for by a handful of the super-rich paying their fair share' or similar. Labour has been running with that line for many years.

    See the Tories and pensioners.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The SNP's genius has been to use the Saltire to hoover up their votes.

    We are about to test the limits of that strategy.

    "Why is the bridge shut?"

    Slap a Saltire on it!

    Ummm...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175
    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:

    Unless we see a reverse of the voting patterns of 2010/2011 or some ludicrously unlikely split vote AMS maths I cannot see beyond a SNP majority.

    Events dear boy...

    The Bridge is key. It's highly visible, massively disruptive, and has SNP fingerprints all over it. There is a direct correlation between abolishing the tolls (which the SNP have been trumpeting for years) and cancelling the maintenance (which the SNP have admitted) and the closure

    If it opens in January, maybe limited fallout. But it might not.
    Bridge opening - limited fallout ...what are you suggesting?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    For the avoidance of doubt though I fear Alastair has wasted his money on his no overall majority bet. The collapse of SLAB, the death of Scottish Liberalism and the persistent weakness of the Tories puts the SNP in a similar position to which the Tories might find themselves in 2020 if Labour persist with Corbyn: no alternative that is even vaguely credible.

    I expect the Lib Dems to lose more seats, the Tories to make 4 or 5 gains, Labour to lose quite a few seats (but probably stay just ahead of the Tories) and the SNP, if anything, to slightly increase their current majority.

    Yep, there will be an SNP tsunami in May. They look set to win every single constituency seat.

    Not sure I would go that far. I think the Tories may well hold onto their 2 seats in the borders, the Lib Dems may hold onto 1 of their seats in the far north (although yesterday's embarrassment might not help) and it is possible Labour might hold on to something somewhere, most likely in Edinburgh. The way the Scottish system works, however, is that that will mean the SNP get pretty much no list seats so although it will give them a majority it will be far less decisive than a FPTP system would be.

    If the Scottish system leads to a Parliament that is more representative of the views of Scottish voters than the Commons is of the views of UK voters that has to be a good thing.

    Not while Labour have their current leadership.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    Scott_P said:

    The SNP's genius has been to use the Saltire to hoover up their votes.

    We are about to test the limits of that strategy.

    "Why is the bridge shut?"

    Slap a Saltire on it!

    Ummm...
    I hope you are right Scott but I fear you are excessively optimistic.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,467
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    For the avoidance of doubt though I fear Alastair has wasted his money on his no overall majority bet. The collapse of SLAB, the death of Scottish Liberalism and the persistent weakness of the Tories puts the SNP in a similar position to which the Tories might find themselves in 2020 if Labour persist with Corbyn: no alternative that is even vaguely credible.

    I expect the Lib Dems to lose more seats, the Tories to make 4 or 5 gains, Labour to lose quite a few seats (but probably stay just ahead of the Tories) and the SNP, if anything, to slightly increase their current majority.

    Yep, there will be an SNP tsunami in May. They look set to win every single constituency seat.

    Not sure I would go that far. I think the Tories may well hold onto their 2 seats in the borders, the Lib Dems may hold onto 1 of their seats in the far north (although yesterday's embarrassment might not help) and it is possible Labour might hold on to something somewhere, most likely in Edinburgh. The way the Scottish system works, however, is that that will mean the SNP get pretty much no list seats so although it will give them a majority it will be far less decisive than a FPTP system would be.

    If the Scottish system leads to a Parliament that is more representative of the views of Scottish voters than the Commons is of the views of UK voters that has to be a good thing.

    Not while Labour have their current leadership.
    Do you mean London or the North British Branch Office?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    I hope you are right Scott but I fear you are excessively optimistic.

    Depends how long it stays shut.
  • vaguely related to (sugar) taxes

    I read this today

    "Over the last few decades, the dietary composition and total calorie intake in most Western countries has changed dramatically. Based on the data from US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the adult total calorie intake has increased 6.9 % in men and 21.7 % in women from 1970 to 2000"

    and found it somewhat astounding.

    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11882-015-0538-9

    "Cane and beet sugar, plant-derived unsaturated fat, dietary fibers, and resistant starches have been replaced by corn-derived sweeteners, animal-based saturated fats, and simple sugars"

    I sort of knew this part, but didn't guess that the overall calorie intake would be different
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited December 2015
    If you used the bridge before to commute - how long is the detour route to get to the other side now?

    I'm trying to get a handle on the scale of the problem - like closing the Dartford Crossing? Closing that has a massive impact, fortunately - it's never been more than a couple of days for weather IIRC.
    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    I hope you are right Scott but I fear you are excessively optimistic.

    Depends how long it stays shut.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,174
    edited December 2015
    felix said:

    DavidL said:

    For the avoidance of doubt though I fear Alastair has wasted his money on his no overall majority bet. The collapse of SLAB, the death of Scottish Liberalism and the persistent weakness of the Tories puts the SNP in a similar position to which the Tories might find themselves in 2020 if Labour persist with Corbyn: no alternative that is even vaguely credible.

    I expect the Lib Dems to lose more seats, the Tories to make 4 or 5 gains, Labour to lose quite a few seats (but probably stay just ahead of the Tories) and the SNP, if anything, to slightly increase their current majority.

    That seems a reasonably likely scenario to me also - it seems a large number of our fellow Scots have enthusiastically embraced the victim mentality and this blinds them almost completely to rational thought. To think what a mess they'd be in right now thanks to the oil price drop.
    'Our fellow Scots'?
    I hadn't realised that you claim to be Scottish. Though the repetitive bleating about how everyone is so beastly to Dave/George/the Tories certainly fits in with your victim mentality proposition.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,539

    isam said:

    Regarding Trump...

    'The Gresham’s law of extremism, that the more extreme drives out the less extreme, is one of the basic rules of political mechanics which operate in this field: it is a corollary of the general principle that no political power exists without being used.

    Both the general law and its Gresham’s corollary point, in contemporary circumstances, towards the resort to physical violence, in the form of firearms or high explosive, as being so probable as to be predicted with virtual certainty. The experience of the last decade and more, all round the world, shows that acts of violence, however apparently irrational or inappropriate their targets, precipitate a frenzied search on the part of the society attacked to discover and remedy more and more grievances, real or imaginary, among those from the violence is supposed to emanate or on whose behalf it is supposed to be exercised. Those commanding a position of political leverage would then be superhuman if they could refrain from pointing to the acts of terrorism and, while condemning them, declaring that further and faster concessions and grants of privilege are the only means to avoid such acts being repeated on a rising scale. We know that those who thus argue will always find a ready hearing. This is what produces the gearing effect of terrorism in the contemporary world, yielding huge results from acts of violence perpetrated by minimal numbers. It is not, I repeat again and again, that the mass of a particular population are violently or criminally disposed. Far from it; that population soon becomes itself the prisoner of the violence and machinations of an infinitely small minority among it. Just a few thugs, a few shots, a few bombs at the right place and time—and that is enough for disproportionate consequences to
    follow.'

    http://traditionalbritain.org/blog/road-national-suicide/

    Sounds like utter rubbish to me, especially where there are real and actual grievances.
    It's Enoch Powell....

    I know.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    For the avoidance of doubt though I fear Alastair has wasted his money on his no overall majority bet. The collapse of SLAB, the death of Scottish Liberalism and the persistent weakness of the Tories puts the SNP in a similar position to which the Tories might find themselves in 2020 if Labour persist with Corbyn: no alternative that is even vaguely credible.

    I expect the Lib Dems to lose more seats, the Tories to make 4 or 5 gains, Labour to lose quite a few seats (but probably stay just ahead of the Tories) and the SNP, if anything, to slightly increase their current majority.

    Yep, there will be an SNP tsunami in May. They look set to win every single constituency seat.

    Not sure I would go that far. I think the Tories may well hold onto their 2 seats in the borders, the Lib Dems may hold onto 1 of their seats in the far north (although yesterday's embarrassment might not help) and it is possible Labour might hold on to something somewhere, most likely in Edinburgh. The way the Scottish system works, however, is that that will mean the SNP get pretty much no list seats so although it will give them a majority it will be far less decisive than a FPTP system would be.
    Lavour only got North and Leith last time out in Edinburgh didn't they? Snp to take N&L this time out is a money purchase - without the georgian terraces of the city centre or stockbridge there is nothing to halt the pro-indy c2de's of leith bar Trinity.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,467

    felix said:

    DavidL said:

    For the avoidance of doubt though I fear Alastair has wasted his money on his no overall majority bet. The collapse of SLAB, the death of Scottish Liberalism and the persistent weakness of the Tories puts the SNP in a similar position to which the Tories might find themselves in 2020 if Labour persist with Corbyn: no alternative that is even vaguely credible.

    I expect the Lib Dems to lose more seats, the Tories to make 4 or 5 gains, Labour to lose quite a few seats (but probably stay just ahead of the Tories) and the SNP, if anything, to slightly increase their current majority.

    That seems a reasonably likely scenario to me also - it seems a large number of our fellow Scots have enthusiastically embraced the victim mentality and this blinds them almost completely to rational thought. To think what a mess they'd be in right now thanks to the oil price drop.
    'Our fellow Scots'?
    I hadn't realised you claim to be Scottish. Though the repetitive bleating about how everyone is so beastly to Dave/George/the Tories does fit in with your victim mentality proposition.
    I think, he means equal members of the Union of 1707?

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I'll do some polling of Fife based co-workers today to see if the bridge will make them less or more likely to vote SNP.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    For the avoidance of doubt though I fear Alastair has wasted his money on his no overall majority bet. The collapse of SLAB, the death of Scottish Liberalism and the persistent weakness of the Tories puts the SNP in a similar position to which the Tories might find themselves in 2020 if Labour persist with Corbyn: no alternative that is even vaguely credible.

    I expect the Lib Dems to lose more seats, the Tories to make 4 or 5 gains, Labour to lose quite a few seats (but probably stay just ahead of the Tories) and the SNP, if anything, to slightly increase their current majority.

    Yep, there will be an SNP tsunami in May. They look set to win every single constituency seat.

    Not sure I would go that far. I think the Tories may well hold onto their 2 seats in the borders, the Lib Dems may hold onto 1 of their seats in the far north (although yesterday's embarrassment might not help) and it is possible Labour might hold on to something somewhere, most likely in Edinburgh. The way the Scottish system works, however, is that that will mean the SNP get pretty much no list seats so although it will give them a majority it will be far less decisive than a FPTP system would be.
    Lavour only got North and Leith last time out in Edinburgh didn't they? Snp to take N&L this time out is a money purchase - without the georgian terraces of the city centre or stockbridge there is nothing to halt the pro-indy c2de's of leith bar Trinity.
    That is probably right, it is hard to see Malcolm Chisholm hanging on. But a lot will depend on how and if the Unionist vote consolidates around the candidate most likely. I expect to see an increase in tactical voting in the constituency vote. Under the system it would be mad not to.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,687
    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    A rather thoughtful piece from Douglas Murray. If you keep shouting down legitimate discussion as racist and Islamophobic, then eventually you end up with Donald Trump.

    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/the-left-is-to-blame-for-the-creation-of-donald-trump/

    Nailed it - years of playing the race card here has all but destroyed the notion of free speech and the Labour party are doing it again in the London mayorals.
    Yes; but the United States has no absence of right wing comment. Rather the opposite, in fact. Fox News, for example, is the exact opposite of what Douglas Murray decries.

    Trump rose in a world with Fox News. There is no "suppression" of discussion about immigration or Islam in the media in the Unities States. Which makes his - otherwise interesting article - completely wrong.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    If you used the bridge before to commute - how long is the detour route to get to the other side now?

    I'm trying to get a handle on the scale of the problem - like closing the Dartford Crossing? Closing that has a massive impact, fortunately - it's never been more than a couple of days for weather IIRC.

    Hour and a half, if there is no traffic.

    11 mile tailback the day it closed
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040

    If you used the bridge before to commute - how long is the detour route to get to the other side now?

    I'm trying to get a handle on the scale of the problem - like closing the Dartford Crossing? Closing that has a massive impact, fortunately - it's never been more than a couple of days for weather IIRC.

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    I hope you are right Scott but I fear you are excessively optimistic.

    Depends how long it stays shut.
    I used to commute from Dundee to Edinburgh via the bridge. I now make the journey via Stirling. The journey has increased from about 1 hour 20 mins each way to just over 2 hours. This makes commuting seriously unattractive so I have had 2 nights in Edinburgh this week and will work at home tomorrow. I expect that to be the routine now until the Bridge opens again.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,687

    DavidL said:

    For the avoidance of doubt though I fear Alastair has wasted his money on his no overall majority bet. The collapse of SLAB, the death of Scottish Liberalism and the persistent weakness of the Tories puts the SNP in a similar position to which the Tories might find themselves in 2020 if Labour persist with Corbyn: no alternative that is even vaguely credible.

    I expect the Lib Dems to lose more seats, the Tories to make 4 or 5 gains, Labour to lose quite a few seats (but probably stay just ahead of the Tories) and the SNP, if anything, to slightly increase their current majority.

    Yep, there will be an SNP tsunami in May. They look set to win every single constituency seat.

    I bet they don't. £20?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rcs1000 said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    A rather thoughtful piece from Douglas Murray. If you keep shouting down legitimate discussion as racist and Islamophobic, then eventually you end up with Donald Trump.

    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/the-left-is-to-blame-for-the-creation-of-donald-trump/

    Nailed it - years of playing the race card here has all but destroyed the notion of free speech and the Labour party are doing it again in the London mayorals.
    Yes; but the United States has no absence of right wing comment. Rather the opposite, in fact. Fox News, for example, is the exact opposite of what Douglas Murray decries.

    Trump rose in a world with Fox News. There is no "suppression" of discussion about immigration or Islam in the media in the Unities States. Which makes his - otherwise interesting article - completely wrong.
    I thought the premise of the article was that criticism of Islamic extremism was dismissed as Islamaphobia, not that there wasn't any
  • Carnyx said:

    felix said:

    DavidL said:

    For the avoidance of doubt though I fear Alastair has wasted his money on his no overall majority bet. The collapse of SLAB, the death of Scottish Liberalism and the persistent weakness of the Tories puts the SNP in a similar position to which the Tories might find themselves in 2020 if Labour persist with Corbyn: no alternative that is even vaguely credible.

    I expect the Lib Dems to lose more seats, the Tories to make 4 or 5 gains, Labour to lose quite a few seats (but probably stay just ahead of the Tories) and the SNP, if anything, to slightly increase their current majority.

    That seems a reasonably likely scenario to me also - it seems a large number of our fellow Scots have enthusiastically embraced the victim mentality and this blinds them almost completely to rational thought. To think what a mess they'd be in right now thanks to the oil price drop.
    'Our fellow Scots'?
    I hadn't realised you claim to be Scottish. Though the repetitive bleating about how everyone is so beastly to Dave/George/the Tories does fit in with your victim mentality proposition.
    I think, he means equal members of the Union of 1707?

    That must be it!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    I used to commute from Dundee to Edinburgh via the bridge. I now make the journey via Stirling. The journey has increased from about 1 hour 20 mins each way to just over 2 hours. This makes commuting seriously unattractive so I have had 2 nights in Edinburgh this week and will work at home tomorrow. I expect that to be the routine now until the Bridge opens again.

    OK, depends where you are starting from. I have friends who live in Dunfermline and commute into RBS. Or not...
  • felix said:

    DavidL said:

    For the avoidance of doubt though I fear Alastair has wasted his money on his no overall majority bet. The collapse of SLAB, the death of Scottish Liberalism and the persistent weakness of the Tories puts the SNP in a similar position to which the Tories might find themselves in 2020 if Labour persist with Corbyn: no alternative that is even vaguely credible.

    I expect the Lib Dems to lose more seats, the Tories to make 4 or 5 gains, Labour to lose quite a few seats (but probably stay just ahead of the Tories) and the SNP, if anything, to slightly increase their current majority.

    That seems a reasonably likely scenario to me also - it seems a large number of our fellow Scots have enthusiastically embraced the victim mentality and this blinds them almost completely to rational thought. To think what a mess they'd be in right now thanks to the oil price drop.
    Though the repetitive bleating
    Still stuck in traffic, hun?

    Oh well, the toll-free crossing was fun while it lasted!

    Was it worth it?

    120 year life expectancy cut by 70 years?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,687

    isam said:

    Regarding Trump...

    'The Gresham’s law of extremism, that the more extreme drives out the less extreme, is one of the basic rules of political mechanics which operate in this field: it is a corollary of the general principle that no political power exists without being used.

    Both the general law and its Gresham’s corollary point, in contemporary circumstances, towards the resort to physical violence, in the form of firearms or high explosive, as being so probable as to be predicted with virtual certainty. The experience of the last decade and more, all round the world, shows that acts of violence, however apparently irrational or inappropriate their targets, precipitate a frenzied search on the part of the society attacked to discover and remedy more and more grievances, real or imaginary, among those from the violence is supposed to emanate or on whose behalf it is supposed to be exercised. Those commanding a position of political leverage would then be superhuman if they could refrain from pointing to the acts of terrorism and, while condemning them, declaring that further and faster concessions and grants of privilege are the only means to avoid such acts being repeated on a rising scale. We know that those who thus argue will always find a ready hearing. This is what produces the gearing effect of terrorism in the contemporary world, yielding huge results from acts of violence perpetrated by minimal numbers. It is not, I repeat again and again, that the mass of a particular population are violently or criminally disposed. Far from it; that population soon becomes itself the prisoner of the violence and machinations of an infinitely small minority among it. Just a few thugs, a few shots, a few bombs at the right place and time—and that is enough for disproportionate consequences to
    follow.'

    http://traditionalbritain.org/blog/road-national-suicide/

    Sounds like utter rubbish to me, especially where there are real and actual grievances.
    It's Enoch Powell....

    It's funny: isam talks at length about prescient Enoch Powell was, and how we need to heed his lessons.

    While never mentioning the things he said that were batshit crazy. Like his view that, after the British Empire had rid the world of the Nazis, then it would have to do the same with the United States.

    (I realise this is the view of Lovinputin1983)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,687
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    A rather thoughtful piece from Douglas Murray. If you keep shouting down legitimate discussion as racist and Islamophobic, then eventually you end up with Donald Trump.

    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/the-left-is-to-blame-for-the-creation-of-donald-trump/

    Nailed it - years of playing the race card here has all but destroyed the notion of free speech and the Labour party are doing it again in the London mayorals.
    Yes; but the United States has no absence of right wing comment. Rather the opposite, in fact. Fox News, for example, is the exact opposite of what Douglas Murray decries.

    Trump rose in a world with Fox News. There is no "suppression" of discussion about immigration or Islam in the media in the Unities States. Which makes his - otherwise interesting article - completely wrong.
    I thought the premise of the article was that criticism of Islamic extremism was dismissed as Islamaphobia, not that there wasn't any
    The article talks about the suppression of certain points of view.

    There has been no suppression in the United States.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    I used to commute from Dundee to Edinburgh via the bridge. I now make the journey via Stirling. The journey has increased from about 1 hour 20 mins each way to just over 2 hours. This makes commuting seriously unattractive so I have had 2 nights in Edinburgh this week and will work at home tomorrow. I expect that to be the routine now until the Bridge opens again.

    OK, depends where you are starting from. I have friends who live in Dunfermline and commute into RBS. Or not...
    Anyone who has to use the Kincardine Bridge has a serious problem, no question. That is why I drive as far west as Stirling.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    For the avoidance of doubt though I fear Alastair has wasted his money on his no overall majority bet. The collapse of SLAB, the death of Scottish Liberalism and the persistent weakness of the Tories puts the SNP in a similar position to which the Tories might find themselves in 2020 if Labour persist with Corbyn: no alternative that is even vaguely credible.

    I expect the Lib Dems to lose more seats, the Tories to make 4 or 5 gains, Labour to lose quite a few seats (but probably stay just ahead of the Tories) and the SNP, if anything, to slightly increase their current majority.

    Yep, there will be an SNP tsunami in May. They look set to win every single constituency seat.

    Not sure I would go that far. I think the Tories may well hold onto their 2 seats in the borders, the Lib Dems may hold onto 1 of their seats in the far north (although yesterday's embarrassment might not help) and it is possible Labour might hold on to something somewhere, most likely in Edinburgh. The way the Scottish system works, however, is that that will mean the SNP get pretty much no list seats so although it will give them a majority it will be far less decisive than a FPTP system would be.
    Lavour only got North and Leith last time out in Edinburgh didn't they? Snp to take N&L this time out is a money purchase - without the georgian terraces of the city centre or stockbridge there is nothing to halt the pro-indy c2de's of leith bar Trinity.
    That is probably right, it is hard to see Malcolm Chisholm hanging on. But a lot will depend on how and if the Unionist vote consolidates around the candidate most likely. I expect to see an increase in tactical voting in the constituency vote. Under the system it would be mad not to.
    The "assign the yes vote to the snp" technique means that n&l is pretty much a lock. The Westminster constituency had a Yes vote of 40 percent and an SNP vote of 41 percent , the different boundaries means lots of demographic no voters are dropped and extra people from edinburgh East (which had the highest yes vote in edinburgh) are added. Even in a pure two horse race I'd be fancying the SNP.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Regarding Trump...

    'The Gresham’s law of extremism, that the more extreme drives out the less extreme, is one of the basic rules of political mechanics which operate in this field: it is a corollary of the general principle that no political power exists without being used.

    Both the general law and its Gresham’s corollary point, in contemporary circumstances, towards the resort to physical violence, in the form of firearms or high explosive, as being so probable as to be predicted with virtual certainty. The experience of the last decade and more, all round the world, shows that acts of violence, however apparently irrational or inappropriate their targets, precipitate a frenzied search on the part of the society attacked to discover and remedy more and more grievances, real or imaginary, among those from the violence is supposed to emanate or on whose behalf it is supposed to be exercised. Those commanding a position of political leverage would then be superhuman if they could refrain from pointing to the acts of terrorism and, while condemning them, declaring that further and faster concessions and grants of privilege are the only means to avoid such acts being repeated on a rising scale. We know that those who thus argue will always find a ready hearing. This is what produces the gearing effect of terrorism in the contemporary world, yielding huge results from acts of violence perpetrated by minimal numbers. It is not, I repeat again and again, that the mass of a particular population are violently or criminally disposed. Far from it; that population soon becomes itself the prisoner of the violence and machinations of an infinitely small minority among it. Just a few thugs, a few shots, a few bombs at the right place and time—and that is enough for disproportionate consequences to
    follow.'

    http://traditionalbritain.org/blog/road-national-suicide/

    Sounds like utter rubbish to me, especially where there are real and actual grievances.
    It's Enoch Powell....

    It's funny: isam talks at length about prescient Enoch Powell was, and how we need to heed his lessons.

    While never mentioning the things he said that were batshit crazy. Like his view that, after the British Empire had rid the world of the Nazis, then it would have to do the same with the United States.

    (I realise this is the view of Lovinputin1983)
    Its not really that funny. I just don't comment on things that I haven't ever thought about and am not interested in.

    I think mass immigration is the biggest problem of our time, and there is a man who forecast the damage it would do / has done, 40 years before it happened, so I tend to quote him
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Terrible scenes at Chelmsford station last night, surprised it didn't make the news.

    Station inundated with racists who covered their nefarious activities by wearing santa hats and collecting for charity.

    I knew they were all racists when I heard them singing "white Xmas" - shameless the lot of them! :-)

  • Alistair said:

    I'll do some polling of Fife based co-workers today to see if the bridge will make them less or more likely to vote SNP.

    Will they get to work in Sturgeon's Scotland ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Will they get to work in Sturgeon's Scotland ?

    Doesn't everyone have a helicopter?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,174
    edited December 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    For the avoidance of doubt though I fear Alastair has wasted his money on his no overall majority bet. The collapse of SLAB, the death of Scottish Liberalism and the persistent weakness of the Tories puts the SNP in a similar position to which the Tories might find themselves in 2020 if Labour persist with Corbyn: no alternative that is even vaguely credible.

    I expect the Lib Dems to lose more seats, the Tories to make 4 or 5 gains, Labour to lose quite a few seats (but probably stay just ahead of the Tories) and the SNP, if anything, to slightly increase their current majority.

    Yep, there will be an SNP tsunami in May. They look set to win every single constituency seat.

    I bet they don't. £20?
    What odds are you offering?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Years ago when they decided to widen a huge stretch of the M25 - I left my HQ offices in St Albans to drive home to Burgess Hill in Sussex. I passed several new signs saying "Roadworks until XYZ [2yr hence] and in that moment decided to resign...

    I imagine others will do the same if the bridge remains closed for an extended period. Would an eff-up make me change my vote? I doubt it.
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    I used to commute from Dundee to Edinburgh via the bridge. I now make the journey via Stirling. The journey has increased from about 1 hour 20 mins each way to just over 2 hours. This makes commuting seriously unattractive so I have had 2 nights in Edinburgh this week and will work at home tomorrow. I expect that to be the routine now until the Bridge opens again.

    OK, depends where you are starting from. I have friends who live in Dunfermline and commute into RBS. Or not...
    Anyone who has to use the Kincardine Bridge has a serious problem, no question. That is why I drive as far west as Stirling.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    I'll do some polling of Fife based co-workers today to see if the bridge will make them less or more likely to vote SNP.

    Will they get to work in Sturgeon's Scotland ?
    They might all be remote working now.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    #YouAintNoMuslimBruv
    Floater said:

    Terrible scenes at Chelmsford station last night, surprised it didn't make the news.

    Station inundated with racists who covered their nefarious activities by wearing santa hats and collecting for charity.

    I knew they were all racists when I heard them singing "white Xmas" - shameless the lot of them! :-)

  • felix said:

    DavidL said:

    For the avoidance of doubt though I fear Alastair has wasted his money on his no overall majority bet. The collapse of SLAB, the death of Scottish Liberalism and the persistent weakness of the Tories puts the SNP in a similar position to which the Tories might find themselves in 2020 if Labour persist with Corbyn: no alternative that is even vaguely credible.

    I expect the Lib Dems to lose more seats, the Tories to make 4 or 5 gains, Labour to lose quite a few seats (but probably stay just ahead of the Tories) and the SNP, if anything, to slightly increase their current majority.

    That seems a reasonably likely scenario to me also - it seems a large number of our fellow Scots have enthusiastically embraced the victim mentality and this blinds them almost completely to rational thought. To think what a mess they'd be in right now thanks to the oil price drop.
    Though the repetitive bleating
    Still stuck in traffic, hun?

    Oh well, the toll-free crossing was fun while it lasted!

    Was it worth it?

    120 year life expectancy cut by 70 years?
    I know that old biddy thing stung, but there's no need to endlessly stalk me with with the same not-very-funny joke.

    What am I saying, that's your modus operandi!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I imagine others will do the same if the bridge remains closed for an extended period. Would an eff-up make me change my vote? I doubt it.

    The difference is there are lots of great jobs in Edinburgh that are not replicated North of the bridge. A lot of the communities in Fife are essentially dormitory towns for Edinburgh, and without the bridge they are in deep soapy
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    No one willing to bet on a Tory majority at Holyrood? Disappointing... :D
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    I'll do some polling of Fife based co-workers today to see if the bridge will make them less or more likely to vote SNP.

    Will they get to work in Sturgeon's Scotland ?
    They might all be remote working now.
    Remote working in England like mighty Nationalist Wings over Scotland.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited December 2015
    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:

    Unless we see a reverse of the voting patterns of 2010/2011 or some ludicrously unlikely split vote AMS maths I cannot see beyond a SNP majority.

    Events dear boy...

    The Bridge is key. It's highly visible, massively disruptive, and has SNP fingerprints all over it. There is a direct correlation between abolishing the tolls (which the SNP have been trumpeting for years) and cancelling the maintenance (which the SNP have admitted) and the closure

    If it opens in January, maybe limited fallout. But it might not.
    The SNP will continually blame everyone else for the bridge closure until the mud sticks.

    Anyone from Cameron to Carmichael will be in the frame for their own failure to maintain the crossing. Twas ever thus.
  • Scott_P said:

    Will they get to work in Sturgeon's Scotland ?

    Doesn't everyone have a helicopter?
    They cancelled the unicorns.....
  • Morning all. To be clear, I'm not predicting that a 7/1 shot will come home, merely that the odds look too long to me.

    My header could be summed up in one question: "what do the SNP actually want independence for?". It's the question that the Better Together campaign never got round to asking properly.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited December 2015

    felix said:

    DavidL said:

    For the avoidance of doubt though I fear Alastair has wasted his money on his no overall majority bet. The collapse of SLAB, the death of Scottish Liberalism and the persistent weakness of the Tories puts the SNP in a similar position to which the Tories might find themselves in 2020 if Labour persist with Corbyn: no alternative that is even vaguely credible.

    I expect the Lib Dems to lose more seats, the Tories to make 4 or 5 gains, Labour to lose quite a few seats (but probably stay just ahead of the Tories) and the SNP, if anything, to slightly increase their current majority.

    That seems a reasonably likely scenario to me also - it seems a large number of our fellow Scots have enthusiastically embraced the victim mentality and this blinds them almost completely to rational thought. To think what a mess they'd be in right now thanks to the oil price drop.
    Though the repetitive bleating
    Still stuck in traffic, hun?

    Oh well, the toll-free crossing was fun while it lasted!

    Was it worth it?

    120 year life expectancy cut by 70 years?
    the same not-very-funny joke.
    No, the SNP's 'Free Stuff' - which has come at a cost - is Scotland's 'not very funny joke'......120 year life span infrastructure in trouble 70 years early, fewer poor children going to University, NHS drugs not available in Scotland that are in England - oh, how we laughed!
  • Scott_P said:

    Will they get to work in Sturgeon's Scotland ?

    Doesn't everyone have a helicopter?
    They cancelled the unicorns.....
    they could have voted labour and flown across with owls
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    felix said:

    DavidL said:

    For the avoidance of doubt though I fear Alastair has wasted his money on his no overall majority bet. The collapse of SLAB, the death of Scottish Liberalism and the persistent weakness of the Tories puts the SNP in a similar position to which the Tories might find themselves in 2020 if Labour persist with Corbyn: no alternative that is even vaguely credible.

    I expect the Lib Dems to lose more seats, the Tories to make 4 or 5 gains, Labour to lose quite a few seats (but probably stay just ahead of the Tories) and the SNP, if anything, to slightly increase their current majority.

    That seems a reasonably likely scenario to me also - it seems a large number of our fellow Scots have enthusiastically embraced the victim mentality and this blinds them almost completely to rational thought. To think what a mess they'd be in right now thanks to the oil price drop.
    Though the repetitive bleating
    Still stuck in traffic, hun?

    Oh well, the toll-free crossing was fun while it lasted!

    Was it worth it?

    120 year life expectancy cut by 70 years?
    the same not-very-funny joke.
    No, the SNP's 'Free Stuff' - which has come at a cost - is Scotland's 'not very funny joke'......120 year life span infrastructure in trouble 70 years early, fewer poor children going to University, NHS drugs not available in Scotland that are in England - oh, how we laughed!
    However, until Scotland inevitably becomes independent, the SG can always blame England and get traction with the Scottish electorate.
  • Well, that's one approach......

    SCOTS who are not registered as organ donors could be refused a transplant under plans being considered by the government.

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/14132991.Scots_not_registered_as_organ_donors_could_be_refused_transplants/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046

    Well, that's one approach......

    SCOTS who are not registered as organ donors could be refused a transplant under plans being considered by the government.

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/14132991.Scots_not_registered_as_organ_donors_could_be_refused_transplants/

    What's stopping you from agreeing to be on the list before getting your transplant, and then immediately reversing your decision afterwards?
  • Scott_P said:

    I imagine others will do the same if the bridge remains closed for an extended period. Would an eff-up make me change my vote? I doubt it.

    The difference is there are lots of great jobs in Edinburgh that are not replicated North of the bridge. A lot of the communities in Fife are essentially dormitory towns for Edinburgh, and without the bridge they are in deep soapy
    In Fife, the area worst affected by the Forth Road Bridge closure, almost 31,000 people commute from the area every day, according to the most recent census. This is the equivalent of just over a third of the area’s own workforce population.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/commuting-in-scotland-who-is-on-the-move-and-where-to-1-3970714
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Morning all. To be clear, I'm not predicting that a 7/1 shot will come home, merely that the odds look too long to me.

    My header could be summed up in one question: "what do the SNP actually want independence for?". It's the question that the Better Together campaign never got round to asking properly.

    It's nothing to do with oil, the economy or free presriptions they simply want to be free from rule by Westminster, good for them.

  • Morning all. To be clear, I'm not predicting that a 7/1 shot will come home, merely that the odds look too long to me.

    My header could be summed up in one question: "what do the SNP actually want independence for?". It's the question that the Better Together campaign never got round to asking properly.

    It's nothing to do with oil, the economy or free presriptions they simply want to be free from rule by Westminster, good for them.

    Free to do what?
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    btw FPT

    I lolled at Mr Nabavi claiming not to be "tribal".
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    :lol:

    Scott_P said:

    Will they get to work in Sturgeon's Scotland ?

    Doesn't everyone have a helicopter?
    They cancelled the unicorns.....
    they could have voted labour and flown across with owls
  • Morning all. To be clear, I'm not predicting that a 7/1 shot will come home, merely that the odds look too long to me.

    My header could be summed up in one question: "what do the SNP actually want independence for?". It's the question that the Better Together campaign never got round to asking properly.

    It's nothing to do with oil, the economy or free presriptions they simply want to be free from rule by Westminster, good for them.

    No they don't.
    This matter has been resolved for a generation by the sovereign democratic will of the Scottish people.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Morning all. To be clear, I'm not predicting that a 7/1 shot will come home, merely that the odds look too long to me.

    My header could be summed up in one question: "what do the SNP actually want independence for?". It's the question that the Better Together campaign never got round to asking properly.

    It's nothing to do with oil, the economy or free presriptions they simply want to be free from rule by Westminster, good for them.

    Free to do what?
    Govern themselves?

    I'm not Scottish, I have sympathy with the Nats even if I disapprove of their boorish behaviour. I've always thought Ukip's stance hypocritical, didn't want Scottish independence but want to leave the EU

  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Morning all. To be clear, I'm not predicting that a 7/1 shot will come home, merely that the odds look too long to me.

    My header could be summed up in one question: "what do the SNP actually want independence for?". It's the question that the Better Together campaign never got round to asking properly.

    It's nothing to do with oil, the economy or free presriptions they simply want to be free from rule by Westminster, good for them.

    Free to do what?
    To surf the waves of milk and honey. You're correct though in you're question. I suspect that the SNP coalition would find that question difficult to answer outside generalities. Although I note that a similar question hasn't stopped the general political hegemony of the ANC in South Africa.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The arguments against Scottish Independence and leaving the EU too often come across as a rich husband telling his unhappy wife who doesn't fancy him anymore that she would be worse off financially if she left him.

    That's why I suppose the SNP schtick worked at the GE, they sold the romantic dream. It mirrors many romance films where people root for the unhappy partner to give it a go
  • Morning all. To be clear, I'm not predicting that a 7/1 shot will come home, merely that the odds look too long to me.

    My header could be summed up in one question: "what do the SNP actually want independence for?". It's the question that the Better Together campaign never got round to asking properly.

    It's nothing to do with oil, the economy or free presriptions they simply want to be free from rule by Westminster, good for them.

    Free to do what?
    Govern themselves?

    I'm not Scottish, I have sympathy with the Nats even if I disapprove of their boorish behaviour. I've always thought Ukip's stance hypocritical, didn't want Scottish independence but want to leave the EU

    What next?

    If you look at what the SNP have done with their powers to date, the devolution settlement seems to give them all the freedom they need. What are these things that they cannot manage for themselves under existing arrangements?

    I'm not hostile to the idea of Scottish independence, but it seems rather purposeless at present.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    edited December 2015

    Morning all. To be clear, I'm not predicting that a 7/1 shot will come home, merely that the odds look too long to me.

    My header could be summed up in one question: "what do the SNP actually want independence for?". It's the question that the Better Together campaign never got round to asking properly.

    It's nothing to do with oil, the economy or free presriptions they simply want to be free from rule by Westminster, good for them.

    No they don't.
    This matter has been resolved for a generation by the sovereign democratic will of the Scottish people.
    Of course that's true, I was talking about the Nats

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,422
    edited December 2015

    Morning all. To be clear, I'm not predicting that a 7/1 shot will come home, merely that the odds look too long to me.

    My header could be summed up in one question: "what do the SNP actually want independence for?". It's the question that the Better Together campaign never got round to asking properly.

    It's nothing to do with oil, the economy or free presriptions they simply want to be free from rule by Westminster, good for them.

    Free to do what?
    Govern themselves?

    I'm not Scottish, I have sympathy with the Nats even if I disapprove of their boorish behaviour. I've always thought Ukip's stance hypocritical, didn't want Scottish independence but want to leave the EU

    What next?

    If you look at what the SNP have done with their powers to date, the devolution settlement seems to give them all the freedom they need. What are these things that they cannot manage for themselves under existing arrangements?

    I'm not hostile to the idea of Scottish independence, but it seems rather purposeless at present.
    Hmm, they can't change the basic rate/higher/additional rates of tax wrt each other.

    They would not for instance be able to reduce either a "flat tax", or a UBI ^_^'';
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @RuthDavidsonMSP: People of Hawick; you've spent 10 years asking for flood defenses, but the SNP say you 'need to take responsibility' https://t.co/LXVH6RfNG6
This discussion has been closed.