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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Local By-Election Preview with ten separate conte
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Local By-Election Preview with ten separate contests
Carnforth and Millhead (Con defence) on Lancaster
Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 29, Conservatives 19, Green Party 9, Independents 3 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 2)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,405, 1,238, 1,184 (48%)
Labour 1,027, 981, 921 (35%)
Green Party 495 (17%)
Candidates duly nominated:
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As ever, thanks Harry. These must take an absolute age to compile, and are always good to read.
On which note, I'm off for the night. Have fun everyone.
Imagine instead if the Times was digging up this stuff during a GE campaign.
Libya is now a totally failed state. Life under Gaddafi (for all he was a sick bastard) is a cherished memory of normality. http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/three-years-after-gaddafi-libya-is-imploding-into-chaos-and-violence-9194697.html
Rather an unusual definition of success.
We had a brutal civil war, in which Gaddafi had promised to take the fight door to door to "exterminate the rats", in which we could intervene or not.
Yougov
Donald Trump 60% -vs- Ben Carson 40%
Donald Trump 57% -vs- Marco Rubio 43%
Donald Trump 57% -vs- Ted Cruz 43%
http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2015/11/25/new-poll-donald-trump-leads-nationally-and-easily-beats-cruz-rubio-and-carson-in-head-to-head-matchups/
Morning Consult
Trump 38%
Carson 15%
Cruz 7%
Bush 6%
Rubio 6%
http://morningconsult.com/2015/11/morning-consult-campaigns-sponsored-by-bring-the-vote-home-poll-update-bernie-sanders-rock-star/
I'm surprised that anyone is surprised. As George Orwell noted of the pacifists of his time - they seemed to have a love of blood and savagery. Provided it was committed by an "other" group they could safely worship. Hence the eulogies to the bloodthirstiness of Stalin etc..
For fun, dig up Ken Livingstone's maiden speech to the House of Commons. For extra points ask him about how he feels about it being proven to be a load of cobblers...
Vile creatures, the lot of them.
But don't panic!
Lord Fairfax of Cameron earlier this week won Conservative Hereditary Peers By-Election.
Anyway - Con +1 Peer
It's looking like the expected GSLP triumph with the exit poll showing a landslide win for GSLP-Liberals: 72% for GSLP-Liberals, 28% for GSD.
I suspect a UKIP over 15% majority is the value bet now.
Just think of all those "too close to call" Labour seats in Scotland. Or even those "too close to call" Liberal seats everywhere.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/26/britain-france-fight-isis
And it's been noted before - for instance I think the 9/11 ringleader had trained as an engineer.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/07/11/theres-a-good-reason-why-so-many-terrorists-are-engineers/
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/jan/05/brain-food-terrorists-engineering
Thought PB is safe from me. As some may have noted, I believe more in greys than black and white. I'm an analogue man working in a digital world.
I don't know much about Salisbury specifically, but I do Wiltshire generally. As you say percentage wise they did badly in 2013 but they made net gains - although they lost a few seats, a lot of those were to former LD independents they didn't stand against, and while their vote was slashed in some of the towns they were far enough ahead to hold on to most of those seats, and they actually gained quite a few seats where non-incumbent Tories were standing to make up for the overall losses.
Since then though they've seen quite a few defections (including one to the Tories only weeks after the elections), mostly to the Independents, lost a by-election to the Tories on the day of the GE, are down 8-9 seats from where they were in 2013, and have had internal party troubles supposedly (the leader was changed recently in a bit of a squabble), partly explaining the number of defections apparently.
This seat specifically the Tories seem confident, no UKIP standing I believe although they only won 1 seat in a 98 seat council in 2013 (it was the first one announced on the night, I recall, a gain from the LDs, and a lot of people thought it would herald a bad night for the LDs, although it turned out not to be the case). The departing councillor was newly elected in 2013 and deputy leader for a time, and is a GP I believe.
Can't say the same of UKIP. Even the most loyal kipper must admit that much.
2014 Lab 653 Con 595 UKIP 495 Ind 149
2015 Con 1372 UKIP 1047 Lab 998
If this was somebody posting on the internet, you would be convinced he was deliberately trolling....
Ken Livingstone on Question Time says he expects free vote on Syria: you can't force people to vote to kill people or not to kill them
Agree that the IRA stuff is the most toxic of all. Most people have next to no idea who Mao was but everyone over 40 has a visceral reaction to the letters IRA.
This is causing outrage with a couple of the barmaids in my local this evening
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/women-in-abusive-relationships-can-now-pay-for-their-own-counselling-through-the-tampon-tax-bravo-a6748296.html
Last night, Mr McDonnell claimed that his remarks had been taken out of context,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldham_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
£ 9,265 wagered on UKIP
The recent conversion to Corbynism after a number of terms as an MP as a Blair supporter, is the cherry on the cake.
I don't agree with Corbyn's pacifism per se which is based on simplistic nonsense. But
when you have the Turks, Iranians, Islamicist freedom fighters. Hezbollah, Assad army, Assad militia, Russians, Turks, Kurds, US and French in there with no endgame, many fighting each other, I can't quite see the point in our six operational bombers getting involved. No-one would notice the role of 6 RFA fighters anyway because of the nihilistic carnage going on.
But, that said, Corbyn and his band of followers are twats and I hope they get dispatched soon. Come on UKIP in Oldham.
He'll say he has the support of members and that is all that matters.
He'll say MPs are out of step with the party.
And he'll be delighted because he can then push for deselections.
PS. I completely agree with what you said on the previous thread about Osborne and Housing. It's not on that policy that I'm at odds with him.
The IRA are now 20 years in the past. to most people under 30, they are not only irrelevant but their past behaviour is not toxic in the way it was to anyone who lived through their campaign in any place where the campaign was relevant.
And remember, in lots of the UK, it was not relevant. Nowhere in Wales or Scotland was attacked by the IRA. Huge swathes of England were not attacked by the IRA. They are, indeed a rather nasty murder gang. But their relevance in 2015 is not really that strong.
HIs Islamist views are far more toxic with far more penetration. That's the petard to hoist him on.
Quite why Nick P voted for them is a mystery.
Excellent show. One of the leading Nazis reminded me of McDonnell.
I remember the days when Cameron misrembering where he last eat a pasty was shock headline news.
Doesn't mean they'll vote for him of course.
I don't know what they think of McDonnell.
"A daughter of Chinese intellectuals, who spent time in Chinese labour camps under Chairman Mao's regime during her childhood, says it was chilling to hear John McDonnell quoting from the Little Red Book."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0396h99
The Social Democrats used to be centre-right under Sir Peter Caruana but he was succeeded by Daniel Feetham who used to lead the now defunct Labour Party. They are soft left now.
The soft-right PDP folded after the last election after they won no MPs. So I'm politically homeless.
Live coverage on GBC right now if anyone fancies a quick look:
http://www.gbc.gi/tv/watch-live
I love the book but with very few exceptions Philip K Dick has not translated well to the screen.
Right, must dash. Early start tomorrow.
Goodnight.
Total Recall is huge fun too.
I visited London maybe 10 times before I was in my teens in the noughties. The IRA was always the threat everyone was worried about.
Wales is very near to Birmingham. Liverpool. Manchester etc.
Just because someone didn't pick on your back yard doesn't mean they are not HATED by the vast majority of the public.
I don't trust the likes of Corbyn and McDonnell. I really do not. It is really worrying that these kind of people have taken hold of a mainstream political party in the UK.
Lab 15,750
UKIP 5,900
Con 5,450
LD 1,050
Green 550
It probably makes sense to give UKIP 3,000 votes from Con:
Lab 15,750
UKIP 8,900
Con 2,450
LD 1,050
Green 550
Therefore a swing of 3,500 votes from Lab to UKIP needed for UKIP to win, which doesn't seem out of the question.