Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tim Farron’s big gamble in the Oldham W & R by-election
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tim Farron’s big gamble in the Oldham W & R by-election
The most interesting Oldham by election development this weekend has been the decision by new Lib Dem leader, Tim Farron, to take a high profile role there.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
"Don't speak to me of heroes until you've heard the tale,
Of Britain's merchant seamen who sailed through storm and gale,
To keep those lifelines open in freedom's hour of need,
When a tyrant cast a shadow across our Island breed.
Captains, greasers, cabin boys, mates and engineers,
Heard the call of duty and cast aside their fears,
They stoked those hungry boilers or stood behind the wheel,
While cooks and stewards manned the guns on coffins made of steel.
They moved in icy convoys from Scapa to Murmansk,
They crossed the Western ocean, never seeking thanks,
They sailed the South Atlantic where raiders lay in wait,
And kept the food lines open to Malta and the Cape.
Tracked by silent U boats that hunted from below,
Shelled by mighty cannon and bombers flying low,
They clung to burning lifeboats when the sea had turned to flame,
And watched their shipmates sink to everlasting fame.
I speak not of a handful but thirty thousand plus,
Some whose names we'll never know, in whom we placed our trust.
They never knew the honour of medals on their chests,
Of marching bands and Victory, or 'glory' and the rest.
The Ocean is their resting place; their tombstone is the wind,
The seabirds cry their last goodbye to family and to friends.
Freighters, troopships, liners, tankers by the score,
Fishing boats and coasters four thousand ships and more,
They flew their county's ensign as they sank beneath the waves,
And took those countless heroes to lonely ocean graves.
Their legacy is freedom, to those who hold it dear,
To walk with clear horizons and never hide in fear.
So when you speak of heroes, remember those at sea,
From Britain's Merchant Navy, who died to keep you free."
(the original version of this post was deleted for reasons unknown. I repost it below with the first and second paragraphs redacted, in case it's that causing the problem)
SPECTRE is breaking box office records in the UK and opened in the domesric market (USA/Canada) Thursday night. It grossed $28million domestic Friday night, which is $2million less than Skyfall did on the same day when it was released. It's expected to do very well but not nearly as well as its predecessor. Caution must be taken when estimating global box-office because of the increasing importance of the China market and it may pull some back because of that, but I'd be surprised if it grossed $1billion. It's seen as the "Age of Ultron" to Skyfall's "Avengers". A blockbuster movie that works well enough but makes same poor choices and does not live up to its predecessor.
I can only hope that he's been doing a lot of work behind the scenes to help the Lib Dems start the long process of rebuilding. To be fair, it seems they're not doing as badly in local elections as they were (although that's just an impression, and I don't have any hard-and-fast figures for it).
But he needs to be making more noise. As mentioned on a recent thread, the Lib Dems aren't on the media as much. Farron needs to try to reverse that.
the LDs face oblivion under the milquetoast, gurning, God-botherer...
A potential way forward (if cynical) would be to oppose any military action that may be upcoming, e.g. in Syria. In 2003 that garnered them a massive amount of media time. Unfortunately it is distinctly possible that the SNP will also oppose such action, and as they have so many more MPs, the media will concentrate on their opposition rather than the Lib Dems. The effect will still be there, but it will be massively blunted.
Brave move by Tim Farron, but at least he’s leading his party from the front.
Straw-clutching time, perhaps, though!
Whether Grimond went on to great things is a different question.
As David Herdson says, the Lib Dems need to answer what they're for. In a by-election that they won't win, why should voters turn out for them?
The Lib Dems got bloody slaughtered at the election. The opportunistic little shit needs to take every chance he can get [and, given he's happy to create a constitutional crisis in a bid to try and get a few inches of media coverage, it'd be bloody odd if he didn't go all out in a by-election].
Mr. StClare, well, quite. But then, Crassus led his army from the front at Carrhae.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caspar_Milquetoast
Though I think this is a poor term for Farron, who has come out fighting in this seat. It would be an extraordinary win if they manage it. A good performance will hearten the troops though. There are some who will see toxicity for the LDs, but plenty of toxicity for Labour, Tories and UKIP.
If UKIP went backwards from May it would be pretty damning for them.
They could increase their majority from 12 to 14, so should be motivated.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldham_West_and_Royton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Success criteria for the Liberal Democrats would surely be -
1) Lose their deposit - failure
2) Triple their share of the vote at the expense of Labour - a sign that they can prosper under the new regime by being the soft-left party - good result without being quite a success.
3) Come second - success.
However, it is very difficult to see the third happening in this particular seat.
UKIP, of course, would be something like:
1) Finish outside the top two - failure
2) Finish second - average
3) Win the seat - success.
But again, it's difficult to see the third happening.
For the Tories, anything higher than fifth has got to be a result!
It's not just students who will remember that epically stupid bit of positioning.
The candidate, as I understand it, is not exactly a Meacher fellow-traveller and Meacher's personal views, which were practically indistinguishable from those of the Greens in many cases, must surely have depressed their vote earlier this year.
I'd be using him as much as possible - and not just waiting for the phone to ring. IIRC, bar a single appearance at PMQs, I've seen Farron ONCE on the TV babbling about refugees.
When Nigel had no MPs he got more coverage.
Moreover, the Conservatives are useless at by-elections. They couldn't even hold Corby or Rochester. They won a single by-election in the last parliament, and in other places including Eastleigh where they should have been in the mix they gave the impression of going through the motions.
If Cameron and Osborne are wise, though, they will throw everything at persuading their supporters not to vote UKIP, for two good reasons: (1) a good result here will renew UKIP's confidence after their disappointing performance at the election and the farce over Farage and (2) if Corbyn loses this seat, or is even run close, whatever the Labour party rules he is finished. He may even resign in a huff on realising how much everyone outside his gaggle of vocal supporters hates him. That would be bad news for the Conservatives.
Will they swallow their views and get out, or not bother given the enormous maj Meacher had. The chances of Labour losing with no canvassing at all must be almost Nil anyway.
The F1 calendar ends in November.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sedgefield_by-election,_2007
Since then their vote increased on two occasions. In Henley (Jun 2008) by 1.8 points and Oldham East (Jan 2011) by 0.3 points.
Someone hinted at his Christianity. Surely that is his personal business and as long as it does not intrude on others, should not be any of our business.
Unfortunately, Clegg has taken the Liberals back to Jo Grimond days. All the work done by Steele, Ashdown and Kennedy has been squandered.
Clegg lost twice. In 2010, when conditions were good for his party he managed to lose 5 seats and in 2015, well no need to go into that one.
Some very interesting changes in it.
- Judges don't need to follow ECHR rulings - but to use Common Law or cases from Aus/Canada et al.
- Explicit statement about freedom of the press
- Armed Services personnel protected from human rights claims when serving in theatre overseas
- Big reduction in claims compensation for human rights - to thwart the human rights lawyer business
*Even then, the closeness of the result was one factor in Thatcher bringing the election forward in case the Labour right moved against Foot and Healey was installed just before the election when Labour would have had no time to split.
1. Everything
Figures here.
When the Lib Dems do get a say it tends to be the likes of Ming who can play the elder statesman role. Lamb may be getting in the local media but I have not seen him on national media since the election.
http://www.conservativehome.com/ukip-watch/2015/07/in-local-by-elections-since-may-ukip-have-suffered-an-average-fall-of-10-9-per-cent-in-their-vote-share.html
I expected the LDs to revive a bit more than they did, the impact of Tory campaigning locally clearly had an impact, but it doesn't explain the whole collapse.
If they had something interesting to say, the media would publish/get them on air. Being CorbynForPussies isn't newsworthy.
And, of course, the Conservatives won the seat at the election anyway!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldham_East_and_Saddleworth_by-election,_2011
So the collapse did not occur immediately on forming the coalition. I think Farron is right to make an effort in a town where there is a strong recent memory of voting LD. He needs some bounceback. Being in a position to be the challenger in 2020 to a Corbynite Labour party is a reasonable aim.
In 2020 Labour may face obliteration in more heartlands, but to whom the spoils? UKIP need to stay second to make that case, but it may be a tall order as it seems Conservatives do not do tactical voting. They are going to need to take Labour votes.
Ukip is facing financial ruin following a slump in membership and the loss of key donors in the wake of the party’s disappointing General Election performance, The Mail on Sunday has learned.
Insiders say the situation has become so desperate that many staff wages went unpaid last month, and leader Nigel Farage has been forced to ring round backers begging for a financial lifeline.
The problems have been compounded by the fact that the party’s biggest donor, Arron Banks, is now channelling his money instead into his own campaign for the UK to vote to leave the EU.
http://dailym.ai/1RG6Zrd
It's wrong to blame Clegg entirely for the Lib Dems' woes. He reaped the whirlwind that Ashdown and Kennedy sowed. The so-called 'good work' led the Lib Dems up a cul de sac. You cannot be all things to all people forever; at some point that bluff will be called because th electorate were likely to deliver a hung parliament precisely because there were so many Lib Dems. Furthermore, because Ashdown andKennedy abandoned the traditional policy of equidistance, the Lib Dems were doubly vulnerable to a Tory revival: locally, where they'd built anti-Tory coalitions, and nationally, where dynamics meant they were likely to have to prop up a Con administration, one way or another (or become a subsidiary of Labour).
It is no coincidence that they forfeited every one of the several university seats they held apart from Sheffield Hallam and Ceredigion.
"The Sunday Telegraph reports that “David Cameron has decided it would be politically safe to back a third runway at Heathrow, despite previously promising to block the expansion of Britain’s busiest airport,” and that “the Government is preparing to announce the next phase for airport expansion within weeks”.
If true, that would at first glance seem to signal a by-election in Richmond Park, since Zac Goldsmith has promised to stand down if growth at Heathrow gets the green light. He apparently believes a decision to quit his seat after the Mayoral election result rather than before would be a breach of his pledge – although such timing would at least leave him clearer about his fate."
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/11/if-cameron-really-wants-expansion-at-heathrow-can-he-fend-off-a-by-election-in-richmond-park.html
It'd be very hard to satirise him.
Going into Coalition with the Tories was always going to be a betrayal to that soft left vote. It was undoubtedly in the national interest and the UK was in a very bad place after the idiocy of Brown in desperate need of stable government but the Lib Dems said goodbye to that broad swathe of support. Many left immediately but some drifted away over time as it became apparent that the Coalition was adopting and implementing a broadly Tory agenda. In this context the increase in tuition fees was a symptom of both a Tory agenda and a loss of that "principled" standing rather than an issue in itself.
There was a great deal of talk on this site before the last election about whether Clegg was going to stand down as leader and try to take some of that toxicity with him. There is little evidence that he even gave it serious thought and the party paid the price.
I wonder if the fact they went back into government with the Tories persuaded ex-Tory, new Liberal Democrat voters that it was once again safe to vote blue directly, as well as causing a haemorrhage of Labour tactical votes? Just a thought, I have no evidence to support it other than the huge number of seats the Tories took back from them that they had not held for 23 years.
I do not share the view that the Tories should be trying to keep Corbyn as leader. Labour have a core vote and it would not take many Tory losses for there to be a Corbyn premiership, particularly given the fact that the Tories' best asset, Cameron, will no longer be standing as PM. A Corbyn premiership would be disastrous, IMO - mainly because of what it says about the takeover of a morally repulsive, blind eye-turning to violence Left, quite out of keeping with traditional British values, including those of the decent Methodist-Orwell left.
Whether Labour supporters or not we owe it to the country to make sure that the insane nitwit group which has taken over Labour is crushed - and at the earliest possible opportunity. There needs to be a decent opposition around to keep the government on its toes, and one that can be voted for by decent people, even if it's not to one's particular taste.
If Corbyn were to change that because of McDonnell that would be wrong. There are tens of thousands of jobs that will be created.
Anyone owning a house under the flight path knew where Heathrow was since 1946. In any case, planes are a lot quieter now than 20 years ago. The next generation of planes will be even quieter.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/06/25/this-mornings-must-read/
Edited extra bit: Mr. Eagles, are you suggesting Farron = Miliband?
Honestly. During the last few months, the pup has learnt that interior defecating is forbidden, climbing the furniture is prohibited, and yesterday she began to learn how to give paw.
At this rate, her knowledge of classical history will exceed yours within a few months.
The assurances in the Davies report about flight times and hours are not reassuring - just ask the people suffering around Gatwick.