@JosiasJessop Not heard the interview, but isn't it the media's job to grill the Gov't on important matters such as this ?
It reminded me of the situation during the ?Egyptian? crisis a few years ago, when the coalition got it massively in the neck from the media for not getting our people out as fast as the Germans, when in fact the work was going on in the background.
So far they have done nothing , we will see if that changes or if they are as inept as they seem.
The British planes yesterday were turned back by the Egyptian authorities, these were regular passenger planes from scheduled and charter airlines. They ended up scattered at airports all over the Southern Med. I suggested yesterday that if the Egyptians continued this blocking then the UK mil will go in and they won't be asking nicely for permission in advance. I stand by that this morning.
I know you're not the UK government's biggest fan but they Dom have rather a good record at stuff like this.
To add, there are stories this morning that a UK charter flight dodged an Egyptian missile in the area of the crash a few weeks ago. The Egyptians admitted it was theirs from a training mission and apologised. This probably has some bearing on the recent action taken.
Egypt have just killed the remnants of their tourist industry stone dead.
I agree with you on most of it , the government record not so much. They can do it when it suits but it is only for pet projects that are in their interests, otherwise you are on your own.
It's hard to see why anyone should be complaining about HMG's actions so far. If people choose to take cheap holidays in unstable places, they should expect a little 'bother'. A few days waiting in an airport to fly back safely, whilst a diplomatic solution is bartered, is hardly the end of days.
Meanwhile Malky cracks open another tinny, and directs an evacuation from his soiled armchair.
I think too that until UKIP contested lots of elections, they didn't know where their strongest support was. Three years ago, we all assumed UKIP would do best in places like Devon, Cornwall, Surrey, Somerset, Hampshire, and that their support was mostly ex-Conservative. It turned out, that wasn't the case at all.
All ???
I remember saying on one of your old Friday articles that Labour was far more vulnerable in working class industrial areas than was believed and the issue driving that was immigration and the economic consequences of that immigration.
Likewise the rise of UKIP in wwc Eastern England has been based on their gain of people who had previously voted Labour.
The warning signs were there from about 2007 or 2008 when a lot of WWC voters went to the BNP. This was dismissed by mainstream people (including myself) but while the BNP was overall an unacceptable face of racism, UKIP transitioned from fruitcakes, nuts and loons to the acceptable face of WWC anger.
Just some thoughts about the ukip ground campaign.
It is very Nigel driven, most activists will go where he is, there is a hero worship factor that people outside the party fail to appreciate. At the GE people from all over the country descended on South Thanet, chaos ensued but it was the Farage factor, kippers want to be with him. Kippers will make the effort to support the big names, people on here have mentioned travelling to help Carswell, not sure Bickley has that pull.
Geographically Oldham is a long way from much of the core support.
John Bickley is decent man, runs a business, very grounded. I'm not sure he, or indeed many inside the party believes he can win.
Don't wish to sound negative, I'm trying to be realistic, if labour lose this they are finished as a party, just can't see it happening.
I was in Clacton last year on the day of the by election, and many of the party big wigs were too... When the Heywood and Middleton result came in, I couldn't help but wonder if more of them should have been up there... It seemed rather poor, and at the time I had the feeling that if this hadn't been the first seat UKIP were likely to win, resources would have been split more evenly... I had a sense of a mistake made/chance missed on the train home Friday morning
What was most important was winning the first seat, in the hopes that the floodgates might open after that. Also successfully protecting a defection was key to encouraging others. When UKIP had yet to win their first seat, there was a danger they could slide into irrelevance if their opinion polling headed south. With a seat, they become a more serious political party. So it's not clear to me this was such a poor choice of priorities, even though in retrospect getting a Northern seat off Labour would have opened up a whole bunch of promising opportunities.
Of course, but the point was that Clacton was in the bag anyway. I guess you could say Heywood was a write off on the same basis, but to get almost half the votes in two by elections on the same day, win one by 35% and lose the other by 2% indicates something not quite right, especially when all the resources were poured into the easy win
Were UKIP really in a position where they could say something was "in the bag"? They'd failed so many times before. Did they trust their own canvassing? (And could they afford to?) If Clacton hadn't come off they'd have been a busted flush. It would have been an existential-level disaster.
@JosiasJessop Not heard the interview, but isn't it the media's job to grill the Gov't on important matters such as this ?
It reminded me of the situation during the ?Egyptian? crisis a few years ago, when the coalition got it massively in the neck from the media for not getting our people out as fast as the Germans, when in fact the work was going on in the background.
So far they have done nothing , we will see if that changes or if they are as inept as they seem.
The British planes yesterday were turned back by the Egyptian authorities, these were regular passenger planes from scheduled and charter airlines. They ended up scattered at airports all over the Southern Med. I suggested yesterday that if the Egyptians continued this blocking then the UK mil will go in and they won't be asking nicely for permission in advance. I stand by that this morning.
I know you're not the UK government's biggest fan but they Dom have rather a good record at stuff like this.
To add, there are stories this morning that a UK charter flight dodged an Egyptian missile in the area of the crash a few weeks ago. The Egyptians admitted it was theirs from a training mission and apologised. This probably has some bearing on the recent action taken.
Egypt have just killed the remnants of their tourist industry stone dead.
I agree with you on most of it , the government record not so much. They can do it when it suits but it is only for pet projects that are in their interests, otherwise you are on your own.
It's hard to see why anyone should be complaining about HMG's actions so far. If people choose to take cheap holidays in unstable places, they should expect a little 'bother'. A few days waiting in an airport to fly back safely, whilst a diplomatic solution is bartered, is hardly the end of days.
Meanwhile Malky cracks open another tinny, and directs an evacuation from his soiled armchair.
Good, let's hope the rozzers get to the bottom of this.
Four-hour police quiz for chief of scandal-hit Kids Company over child abuse allegations as detectives pursue criminal inquiry into shamed charity
Camila Batmanghelidjh visited investigators in East London on Thursday Scotland Yard is investigating reports of illegal activity involving children Claims include counsellor taking ecstasy with teenage boys
I agree entirely but I can't see a govt that spunked £millions encouraging the police to get involved.
This is another example of Cameron's poor judgement.
Did the problems only start in 2010? It does seem to be year zero for lots of people.
For example Surbiton's concern about manufacturing since 2010 but lack of interest in its decade long depression before that.
On the other hand there was no shortage of PB Tories who whined incessantly about the wellbeing of military personal up until May 2010 but lost all interest afterwards. You don't often read the phrase 'military covenant' these days on PB.
Because the military covenant is being respected far better than pre 2010 now. If it wasn't you'd hear it all the time by the many critics of the government here.
I am not sure that is the case. A more likely reason is that now we have stopped fighting there are far fewer stories emerging about the way service personnel are treated. I do not believe for one moment that our service men and women are treated any better under Cameron's governments than they were under Blair and Brown.
There is at least one regular poster on this site who has personal experience of how Osborne's first attack on service pay and conditions didn't match Cameron's pre-election posturing and there is actually an article in today's Telegraph on the latest set of cuts Osborne is seeking to impose.
@JosiasJessop Not heard the interview, but isn't it the media's job to grill the Gov't on important matters such as this ?
It reminded me of the situation during the ?Egyptian? crisis a few years ago, when the coalition got it massively in the neck from the media for not getting our people out as fast as the Germans, when in fact the work was going on in the background.
So far they have done nothing , we will see if that changes or if they are as inept as they seem.
The British planes yesterday were turned back by the Egyptian authorities, these were regular passenger planes from scheduled and charter airlines. They ended up scattered at airports all over the Southern Med. I suggested yesterday that if the Egyptians continued this blocking then the UK mil will go in and they won't be asking nicely for permission in advance. I stand by that this morning.
I know you're not the UK government's biggest fan but they Dom have rather a good record at stuff like this.
To add, there are stories this morning that a UK charter flight dodged an Egyptian missile in the area of the crash a few weeks ago. The Egyptians admitted it was theirs from a training mission and apologised. This probably has some bearing on the recent action taken.
Egypt have just killed the remnants of their tourist industry stone dead.
I agree with you on most of it , the government record not so much. They can do it when it suits but it is only for pet projects that are in their interests, otherwise you are on your own.
It's hard to see why anyone should be complaining about HMG's actions so far. If people choose to take cheap holidays in unstable places, they should expect a little 'bother'. A few days waiting in an airport to fly back safely, whilst a diplomatic solution is bartered, is hardly the end of days.
Meanwhile Malky cracks open another tinny, and directs an evacuation from his soiled armchair.
Dear Dear what an odious creature
You really don't do self awareness do you?
Another cockroach appears
Now, now, MAlky, don't let your hangover get the better of you, you big jessie.
Interesting article on an Oldham school attempting to promote integration, showing both progress and continuing hurdles - no visible axe to grind, just a thoughtful piece:
Good, let's hope the rozzers get to the bottom of this.
Four-hour police quiz for chief of scandal-hit Kids Company over child abuse allegations as detectives pursue criminal inquiry into shamed charity
Camila Batmanghelidjh visited investigators in East London on Thursday Scotland Yard is investigating reports of illegal activity involving children Claims include counsellor taking ecstasy with teenage boys
I agree entirely but I can't see a govt that spunked £millions encouraging the police to get involved.
This is another example of Cameron's poor judgement.
Did the problems only start in 2010? It does seem to be year zero for lots of people.
For example Surbiton's concern about manufacturing since 2010 but lack of interest in its decade long depression before that.
On the other hand there was no shortage of PB Tories who whined incessantly about the wellbeing of military personal up until May 2010 but lost all interest afterwards. You don't often read the phrase 'military covenant' these days on PB.
Because the military covenant is being respected far better than pre 2010 now. If it wasn't you'd hear it all the time by the many critics of the government here.
Or the wellbeing of military personal were just a stick with which to beat Labour by people who didn't actually care about the wellbeing of military personal.
With the lack of criticism of this government's defence cuts and military accounting fiddles I know which I believe.
Just this minute read that IAG are going to pay their first ever dividend! I remember being told by someone on here that it would be a good punt back in 2012. Don't remember who, but great advice nonetheless. Bought at 160p, now 590p and paying a 7p dividend. What's not to like!
I know there are people on here who know more about economics, but this article in the Telegraph on the BoE keeping interest rates at 0.5% seems to be very sensible:
What the author doesn't say is what the really bad consequences could be. There's lots of stuff about it discouraging people to save, but does this really matter?
What incentive is there for Carney and the rest of the MPC to take tough decisions so long as they can get through to the end of their tenure without something going seriously wrong?
Just some thoughts about the ukip ground campaign.
Geographically Oldham is a long way from much of the core support.
John Bickley is decent man, runs a business, very grounded. I'm not sure he, or indeed many inside the party believes he can win.
Don't wish to sound negative, I'm trying to be realistic, if labour lose this they are finished as a party, just can't see it happening.
I was in Clacton last year on the day of the by election, and many of the party big wigs were too... When the Heywood and Middleton result came in, I couldn't help but wonder if more of them should have been up there... It seemed rather poor, and at the time I had the feeling that if this hadn't been the first seat UKIP were likely to win, resources would have been split more evenly... I had a sense of a mistake made/chance missed on the train home Friday morning
What was most important was winning the first seat, in the hopes that the floodgates might open after that. Also successfully protecting a defection was key to encouraging others. When UKIP had yet to win their first seat, there was a danger they could slide into irrelevance if their opinion polling headed south. With a seat, they become a more serious political party. So it's not clear to me this was such a poor choice of priorities, even though in retrospect getting a Northern seat off Labour would have opened up a whole bunch of promising opportunities.
Of course, but the point was that Clacton was in the bag anyway. I guess you could say Heywood was a write off on the same basis, but to get almost half the votes in two by elections on the same day, win one by 35% and lose the other by 2% indicates something not quite right, especially when all the resources were poured into the easy win
Were UKIP really in a position where they could say something was "in the bag"? They'd failed so many times before. Did they trust their own canvassing? (And could they afford to?) If Clacton hadn't come off they'd have been a busted flush. It would have been an existential-level disaster.
Yes in Clacton they were... the polls had them between 32-44% clear. I canvassed the least UKIP friendly part of town (Frinton) and even there UKIP were slightly ahead
There was probably no need for Farage, Suzanne Evans, Carswell, O'Flynn, & Reckless to all be there on polling day to ensure victory
Interesting article on an Oldham school attempting to promote integration, showing both progress and continuing hurdles - no visible axe to grind, just a thoughtful piece:
Just this minute read that IAG are going to pay their first ever dividend! I remember being told by someone on here that it would be a good punt back in 2012. Don't remember who, but great advice nonetheless. Bought at 160p, now 590p and paying a 7p dividend. What's not to like!
So with heavy industry shutting down because of high energy costs and factories being paid by the energy companies not to use electricity would we all agree that UK energy policy is not fit for purpose ?
@JosiasJessop Not heard the interview, but isn't it the media's job to grill the Gov't on important matters such as this ?
It reminded me of the situation during the ?Egyptian? crisis a few years ago, when the coalition got it massively in the neck from the media for not getting our people out as fast as the Germans, when in fact the work was going on in the background.
So far they have done nothing , we will see if that changes or if they are as inept as they seem.
The British planes yesterday were turned back by the Egyptian authorities, these were regular passenger planes from scheduled and charter airlines. They ended up scattered at airports all over the Southern Med. I suggested yesterday that if the Egyptians continued this blocking then the UK mil will go in and they won't be asking nicely for permission in advance. I stand by that this morning.
I know you're not the UK government's biggest fan but they Dom have rather a good record at stuff like this.
To add, there are stories this morning that a UK charter flight dodged an Egyptian missile in the area of the crash a few weeks ago. The Egyptians admitted it was theirs from a training mission and apologised. This probably has some bearing on the recent action taken.
Egypt have just killed the remnants of their tourist industry stone dead.
I agree with you on most of it , the government record not so much. They can do it when it suits but it is only for pet projects that are in their interests, otherwise you are on your own.
It's hard to see why anyone should be complaining about HMG's actions so far. If people choose to take cheap holidays in unstable places, they should expect a little 'bother'. A few days waiting in an airport to fly back safely, whilst a diplomatic solution is bartered, is hardly the end of days.
Meanwhile Malky cracks open another tinny, and directs an evacuation from his soiled armchair.
Dear Dear what an odious creature
You really don't do self awareness do you?
Another cockroach appears
Now, now, MAlky, don't let your hangover get the better of you, you big jessie.
He had a big night knocking back a few bottles of home made Turnip Whine.
@JosiasJessop Not heard the interview, but isn't it the media's job to grill the Gov't on important matters such as this ?
It reminded me of the situation during the ?Egyptian? crisis a few years ago, when the coalition got it massively in the neck from the media for not getting our people out as fast as the Germans, when in fact the work was going on in the background.
So far they have done nothing , we will see if that changes or if they are as inept as they seem.
The British planes yesterday were turned back by the Egyptian authorities, these were regular passenger planes from scheduled and charter airlines. They ended up scattered at airports all over the Southern Med. I suggested yesterday that if the Egyptians continued this blocking then the UK mil will go in and they won't be asking nicely for permission in advance. I stand by that this morning.
I know you're not the UK government's biggest fan but they Dom have rather a good record at stuff like this.
To add, there are stories this morning that a UK charter flight dodged an Egyptian missile in the area of the crash a few weeks ago. The Egyptians admitted it was theirs from a training mission and apologised. This probably has some bearing on the recent action taken.
Egypt have just killed the remnants of their tourist industry stone dead.
I agree with you on most of it , the government record not so much. They can do it when it suits but it is only for pet projects that are in their interests, otherwise you are on your own.
It's hard to see why anyone should be complaining about HMG's actions so far. If people choose to take cheap holidays in unstable places, they should expect a little 'bother'. A few days waiting in an airport to fly back safely, whilst a diplomatic solution is bartered, is hardly the end of days.
Meanwhile Malky cracks open another tinny, and directs an evacuation from his soiled armchair.
Dear Dear what an odious creature
You really don't do self awareness do you?
Another cockroach appears
Now, now, MAlky, don't let your hangover get the better of you, you big jessie.
LOL, what a dummy, thick as mince. No originality , use other people's quotes and no doubt of very low intelligence and upbringing, you must be a real disappointment to your parent(s)..
@JosiasJessop Not heard the interview, but isn't it the media's job to grill the Gov't on important matters such as this ?
It reminded me of the situation during the ?Egyptian? crisis a few years ago, when the coalition got it massively in the neck from the media for not getting our people out as fast as the Germans, when in fact the work was going on in the background.
So far they have done nothing , we will see if that changes or if they are as inept as they seem.
The British planes yesterday were turned back by the Egyptian authorities, these were regular passenger planes from scheduled and charter airlines. They ended up scattered at airports all over the Southern Med. I suggested yesterday that if the Egyptians continued this blocking then the UK mil will go in and they won't be asking nicely for permission in advance. I stand by that this morning.
I know you're not the UK government's biggest fan but they Dom have rather a good record at stuff like this.
To add, there are stories this morning that a UK charter flight dodged an Egyptian missile in the area of the crash a few weeks ago. The Egyptians admitted it was theirs from a training mission and apologised. This probably has some bearing on the recent action taken.
Egypt have just killed the remnants of their tourist industry stone dead.
I agree with you on most of it , the government record not so much. They can do it when it suits but it is only for pet projects that are in their interests, otherwise you are on your own.
It's hard to see why anyone should be complaining about HMG's actions so far. If people choose to take cheap holidays in unstable places, they should expect a little 'bother'. A few days waiting in an airport to fly back safely, whilst a diplomatic solution is bartered, is hardly the end of days.
Meanwhile Malky cracks open another tinny, and directs an evacuation from his soiled armchair.
Dear Dear what an odious creature
You really don't do self awareness do you?
Another cockroach appears
Now, now, MAlky, don't let your hangover get the better of you, you big jessie.
He had a big night knocking back a few bottles of home made Turnip Whine.
I think too that until UKIP contested lots of elections, they didn't know where their strongest support was. Three years ago, we all assumed UKIP would do best in places like Devon, Cornwall, Surrey, Somerset, Hampshire, and that their support was mostly ex-Conservative. It turned out, that wasn't the case at all.
All ???
I remember saying on one of your old Friday articles that Labour was far more vulnerable in working class industrial areas than was believed and the issue driving that was immigration and the economic consequences of that immigration.
Likewise the rise of UKIP in wwc Eastern England has been based on their gain of people who had previously voted Labour.
The warning signs were there from about 2007 or 2008 when a lot of WWC voters went to the BNP. This was dismissed by mainstream people (including myself) but while the BNP was overall an unacceptable face of racism, UKIP transitioned from fruitcakes, nuts and loons to the acceptable face of WWC anger.
It should also be remembered that the Conservatives also made a big wwc breakthrough at that time.
At the 2008 local elections the Conservatives were ahead of Labour in Heywood & Middleton constituency. Also ahead in Stalybridge, Morley, Don Valley, Rother Valley, Worsley, Bassetlaw and a few other such places.
With the exception of Morley & Outwood where the Conservaties had an energetic local party and national publicity (because of Ed Balls) much of the support the Conservatives gained in those areas moved onto UKIP.
I think too that until UKIP contested lots of elections, they didn't know where their strongest support was. Three years ago, we all assumed UKIP would do best in places like Devon, Cornwall, Surrey, Somerset, Hampshire, and that their support was mostly ex-Conservative. It turned out, that wasn't the case at all.
All ???
I remember saying on one of your old Friday articles that Labour was far more vulnerable in working class industrial areas than was believed and the issue driving that was immigration and the economic consequences of that immigration.
Likewise the rise of UKIP in wwc Eastern England has been based on their gain of people who had previously voted Labour.
The warning signs were there from about 2007 or 2008 when a lot of WWC voters went to the BNP. This was dismissed by mainstream people (including myself) but while the BNP was overall an unacceptable face of racism, UKIP transitioned from fruitcakes, nuts and loons to the acceptable face of WWC anger.
It should also be remembered that the Conservatives also made a big wwc breakthrough at that time.
At the 2008 local elections the Conservatives were ahead of Labour in Heywood & Middleton constituency. Also ahead in Stalybridge, Morley, Don Valley, Rother Valley, Worsley, Bassetlaw and a few other such places.
With the exception of Morley & Outwood where the Conservaties had an energetic local party and national publicity (because of Ed Balls) much of the support the Conservatives gained in those areas moved onto UKIP.
I think in some but not all areas that is true. It's worth remembering that between the last two elections the Conservatives have gained net 120 seats.
In a way I can understand why all the big UKIP figures were in Clacton because they simply couldn't afford not to win that seat so they had to play ultra-safe. In retrospect it seems like they should all have been in Heywood & Middleton getting those extra 600 votes.
Good morning all. A bit late in the day and still feeling rather tired after coming home from a family 60th wedding anniversary splash in TelAviv.
However once I was in TA I had a sort of vision - you know the one where a little lamp lights up - and thought about the EU referendum. Cameron can lose the referendum even with all the MSM and their tame hacks on his side, especially if the immigrant rate keeps flowing and the tide reaches British shores.
There would be one way to avoid defeat and that is to force a new GE on Britain immediately prior to any EuroRef vote. If Cameron was defeated by an out/no vote he would be a broken man politically anyway, so not much of a gamble for Cammo personally.
@JosiasJessop Not heard the interview, but isn't it the media's job to grill the Gov't on important matters such as this ?
It reminded me of the situation during the ?Egyptian? crisis a few years ago, when the coalition got it massively in the neck from the media for not getting our people out as fast as the Germans, when in fact the work was going on in the background.
So far they have done nothing , we will see if that changes or if they are as inept as they seem.
The British planes yesterday were turned back by the Egyptian authorities, these were regular passenger planes from scheduled and charter airlines. They ended up scattered at airports all over the Southern Med. I suggested yesterday that if the Egyptians continued this blocking then the UK mil will go in and they won't be asking nicely for permission in advance. I stand by that this morning.
I know you're not the UK government's biggest fan but they Dom have rather a good record at stuff like this.
To add, there are stories this morning that a UK charter flight dodged an Egyptian missile in the area of the crash a few weeks ago. The Egyptians admitted it was theirs from a training mission and apologised. This probably has some bearing on the recent action taken.
Egypt have just killed the remnants of their tourist industry stone dead.
I agree with you on most of it , the government record not so much. They can do it when it suits but it is only for pet projects that are in their interests, otherwise you are on your own.
It's hard to see why anyone should be complaining about HMG's actions so far. If people choose to take cheap holidays in unstable places, they should expect a little 'bother'. A few days waiting in an airport to fly back safely, whilst a diplomatic solution is bartered, is hardly the end of days.
Meanwhile Malky cracks open another tinny, and directs an evacuation from his soiled armchair.
Dear Dear what an odious creature
You really don't do self awareness do you?
Another cockroach appears
Now, now, MAlky, don't let your hangover get the better of you, you big jessie.
He had a big night knocking back a few bottles of home made Turnip Whine.
Good morning all. A bit late in the day and still feeling rather tired after coming home from a family 60th wedding anniversary splash in TelAviv.
However once I was in TA I had a sort of vision - you know the one where a little lamp lights up - and thought about the EU referendum. Cameron can lose the referendum even with all the MSM and their tame hacks on his side, especially if the immigrant rate keeps flowing and the tide reaches British shores.
There would be one way to avoid defeat and that is to force a new GE on Britain immediately prior to any EuroRef vote. If Cameron was defeated by an out/no vote he would be a broken man politically anyway, so not much of a gamble for Cammo personally.
Anyway, just a thought.
Morning all,
Not sure how this would work. Wouldn't Cameron have to go into such an election with another commitment to a referendum in order to keep backbenchers from outright mutiny?
I did read this one! Actually I do usually read David's thread headers
One small snag, it was Heywood and Middleton that John Bickley almost won last year, not Wythenshawe... And at the end of the Conservative section, is it supposed to say 'a consequence of Conservative success' or 'conservative failure'?
Maybe I've misread
And that's two snags
These prices are almost identical to those in Heywood and Middleton... Ukip 8/1... I can't see it, it seems like an easy labour hold... Hope I'm wrong and Ukip win but can't find a bet personally
The derivatives may offer some value perhaps
Quite right about Wythenshawe / Heywood. My mistake, due to having tried to find a similar(ish) seat in roughly the same part of the world fought at about the same time with a similar previous turnout. Having researched Wythenshawe on that basis, I then dropped the name into the UKIP section by mistake.
However, the bit at the end of the Conservative section is right. What I'm meaning is that were it the Tories to put pressure on Labour by cutting Labour's majority and finishing a clear second, that wouldn't be too bad for the Tories, even were the consequence to be to destabilise Corbyn. However, if it's UKIP that destabilises him while the Tories go backwards then that's the worst of all worlds for the Blues.
Good morning all. A bit late in the day and still feeling rather tired after coming home from a family 60th wedding anniversary splash in TelAviv.
However once I was in TA I had a sort of vision - you know the one where a little lamp lights up - and thought about the EU referendum. Cameron can lose the referendum even with all the MSM and their tame hacks on his side, especially if the immigrant rate keeps flowing and the tide reaches British shores.
There would be one way to avoid defeat and that is to force a new GE on Britain immediately prior to any EuroRef vote. If Cameron was defeated by an out/no vote he would be a broken man politically anyway, so not much of a gamble for Cammo personally.
Anyway, just a thought.
Not allowable under the fixed term Parliament act I think.
Good morning all. A bit late in the day and still feeling rather tired after coming home from a family 60th wedding anniversary splash in TelAviv.
However once I was in TA I had a sort of vision - you know the one where a little lamp lights up - and thought about the EU referendum. Cameron can lose the referendum even with all the MSM and their tame hacks on his side, especially if the immigrant rate keeps flowing and the tide reaches British shores.
There would be one way to avoid defeat and that is to force a new GE on Britain immediately prior to any EuroRef vote. If Cameron was defeated by an out/no vote he would be a broken man politically anyway, so not much of a gamble for Cammo personally.
Anyway, just a thought.
Not allowable under the fixed term Parliament act I think.
In theory if 3/4 of the house vote for an early election then could be done. But unlikely that Cameron would persuade other parties given the state they are all in. Even the SNP would have little to gain as there's only 3 seats left to get hold of.
@JosiasJessop Not heard the interview, but isn't it the media's job to grill the Gov't on important matters such as this ?
It reminded me of the situation during the ?Egyptian? crisis a few years ago, when the coalition got it massively in the neck from the media for not getting our people out as fast as the Germans, when in fact the work was going on in the background.
Are you thinking of the Libyan evacuation? Our planes were a day later than those of other nations to arrive in Tripoli, but when they did get there there were a few diplomats on board.
From the Hereford branch of the Diplomatic Service, in green uniforms and with large bags!
They turned up 3 or 4 days later in the middle of the desert, where there were a bunch of stranded Western oil workers. They'd cleared a runway in the sand for a Hercules sneak into the country past the bombed out Radar stations, land in the desert and pick them all up. Every single Brit in the country got out, and that last airlift took a load of other nations oil workers out with it too.
There will probably be a book written about the mission in a few years' time, Britian again reminding the world that she is really good at stuff like this - as we see again this week in Egypt.
Actually please can I correct you on that. Not every single Brit got out. The rescue of the oil workers was a combined operation with forces from a number of European countries but at least 2 drilling rigs in central southern Libya were missed. One of my colleagues tried 3 times to get out of the country subsequent to the airlift including an attempted run up to Benghazi which failed. Eventually they travelled south into Niger and got out that way. The biggest help to them were the local Libyan oil workers and some of the local Libyan army who had been guarding the rigs and who stuck with the expats and saw them safely home.
I think too that until UKIP contested lots of elections, they didn't know where their strongest support was. Three years ago, we all assumed UKIP would do best in places like Devon, Cornwall, Surrey, Somerset, Hampshire, and that their support was mostly ex-Conservative. It turned out, that wasn't the case at all.
All ???
I remember saying on one of your old Friday articles that Labour was far more vulnerable in working class industrial areas than was believed and the issue driving that was immigration and the economic consequences of that immigration.
Likewise the rise of UKIP in wwc Eastern England has been based on their gain of people who had previously voted Labour.
The warning signs were there from about 2007 or 2008 when a lot of WWC voters went to the BNP. This was dismissed by mainstream people (including myself) but while the BNP was overall an unacceptable face of racism, UKIP transitioned from fruitcakes, nuts and loons to the acceptable face of WWC anger.
It should also be remembered that the Conservatives also made a big wwc breakthrough at that time.
At the 2008 local elections the Conservatives were ahead of Labour in Heywood & Middleton constituency. Also ahead in Stalybridge, Morley, Don Valley, Rother Valley, Worsley, Bassetlaw and a few other such places.
With the exception of Morley & Outwood where the Conservaties had an energetic local party and national publicity (because of Ed Balls) much of the support the Conservatives gained in those areas moved onto UKIP.
I think in some but not all areas that is true. It's worth remembering that between the last two elections the Conservatives have gained net 120 seats.
That won't just be from Middle Class voters.
Certainly the gains that the Conservatives have had since 2005 have depended upon wwc votes in many areas.
But I think they could have done even better and particularly better in areas that UKIP has now made itself the main challenger to Labour in.
I don't think the Conservative leadership were aware of the potential they had in previously hostile areas. They were instead comitted to an urban middle class strategy which dismally failed. If the Conservatives had made half as much effort in the likes of Don Valley or Derbyshire NE as they did in Hammersmith and Tooting they would likely have had better results.
Just some thoughts about the ukip ground campaign.
It is very Nigel driven, most activists will go where he is, there is a hero worship factor that people outside the party fail to appreciate. At the GE people from all over the country descended on South Thanet, chaos ensued but it was the Farage factor, kippers want to be with him. Kippers will make the effort to support the big names, people on here have mentioned travelling to help Carswell, not sure Bickley has that pull.
Geographically Oldham is a long way from much of the core support.
John Bickley is decent man, runs a business, very grounded. I'm not sure he, or indeed many inside the party believes he can win.
Don't wish to sound negative, I'm trying to be realistic, if labour lose this they are finished as a party, just can't see it happening.
I was in Clacton last year on the day of the by election, and many of the party big wigs were too... When the Heywood and Middleton result came in, I couldn't help but wonder if more of them should have been up there... It seemed rather poor, and at the time I had the feeling that if this hadn't been the first seat UKIP were likely to win, resources would have been split more evenly... I had a sense of a mistake made/chance missed on the train home Friday morning
Someone who is allowed to write threads might consider a counterfactual on that premise re Ed Miliband losing one of labours northern strongholds?
Maybe Donald Brind? He gets a lot of stick but he isn't the worst thread writer on here
The problem with Donald's posts is he doesn't make an argument (like @DavidHerdson) or offer insight/betting tips (like the sadly missed @HenryManson). Interesting threads are more important than the party preferences of the writer
He just writes screes of Labour propaganda. If I wanted to read that I'd buy the Mirror.
May be @rcs1000 could enlighten us: given that most visitors don't go below the line, is there any difference between the number of total visitors on a Friday vs. other days an how does that compare to historical trends?
I don't get this thing about not going below the line. Comments load automatically for me when I open the page so how does anyone know whether I read them or not?
WH is offering 8.5% a Labour win in Oldham for a month or so's investment.Anyone with a lump sum to invest ought to consider say 2.5% of capital as the bank and stake is 2.5% of total.It certainly does not get the animal spirits going but it's a far better rate for your money than other similar investments such as Premium Bonds. It's not what I call gambling so a definite no bet race in the win market but there maybe some potential in the size of majority market. Labour hold.
I think too that until UKIP contested lots of elections, they didn't know where their strongest support was. Three years ago, we all assumed UKIP would do best in places like Devon, Cornwall, Surrey, Somerset, Hampshire, and that their support was mostly ex-Conservative. It turned out, that wasn't the case at all.
I remember winding up tim, when he was so smug about the damage UKIP was supposedly doing to the Tories, that UKIP 2.0* would be a bigger danger to Labour in the northern seats they have taken for granted for decades.
I think there was something he used to say about pb.Tories...?
(*I still think UKIP is fobbing us off with version UKIP 1.89....They won't deliver UKIP 2.0 until Farage fecks off though. He still gives the impression of having more interest in hurting the Tories than he does of making UKIP a Westminster electoral force.)
To actually replace Labour - as opposed to winning the odd by-election on the back of protest votes - UKIP is going to have to move left on the economic front. Having an ex-Tory MP voting to reduce the incomes of working class people is not helpful on that front.
The transition from Labour diehard to someone who accepts that Tories aren't all evil, and recognising that not all working class people are welfare obsessed Labour lemmings is tough... I have been there
Being opposed to working people having their incomes reduced by the government is not being welfare obsessed. Thinking it is may be another obstacle on UKIP's path to replacing Labour.
Why should the government pay the wages of people in the private sector? They've already let them off paying any tax
If the last Labour govt hadn't been the equivalent of a union that offers your job to anyone who will do it for less, people wouldn't have to go begging to the state for top ups
Yep, that's the right wing view. But, as I say, to replace Labour UKIP is going to have to develop a message for people who on the economic front are left wing. Telling working people they are beggars and punishing them (not their employers) for not being paid enough is not necessarily going to cut the mustard.
Its not just a right wrong view. I am sure the left wing would be annoyed at large indirect tax cuts being given to companies by allowing them to pay low wages in the knowledge they will be supplemented by the taxpayer.
Interesting article on an Oldham school attempting to promote integration, showing both progress and continuing hurdles - no visible axe to grind, just a thoughtful piece:
Interesting, but I'd pick up two flawed arguments:
Allport believed that prejudice flowed from ignorance: people made generalisations about an entire group because they lacked information about that group. Contact with members of the other group could correct mistaken perceptions, improve empathy and diminish prejudice
It can equally reinforce perceptions, either because they are objectively valid, or because people have a tendency to see what they're looking for - hence even if there isn't truly objective evidence to validate a perception then as long as there are enough individual cases, whatever contra-indicators there may be, the prejudice will be maintained.
And while contact can improve empathy, it may do so only on an individual basis if the conclusion people come to is 'decent but different'. It's interesting that the example chosen is of two 12 year-olds, not two 17-year olds. In my experience, muslim communities are reasonably tolerant of how children play but socialising becomes more restricted as children become young adults.
The implications [of Tajfel's experiment] are profoundly unsettling. It shows how easy it is to switch on discrimination: our belonging to social groups is fundamental to our social identity and we like to see “us” as better than “them”.
That final assertion is wrong (though typical of the Guardian mindset which feels duty bound to infer a value judgement from any expression of preference). It is surely deeply embedded in our natural instincts to look after and protect our own: our family, our friends, our community. Not only is this an ingrained emotional response that dates back probably before the human race even existed, it also exists for logical reasons: there is a mutuality in implicit support for members of groups and the mere act of preference reinforces this. A group that did not act in that way is not a group in any meaningful sense, merely a collection.
And therein lies the problem for any scheme like this. People can and obviously do belong to many groups, some of which are cross-cutting, but as long as cultural behaviours prevent socialising (or at least reduce it to a 'polite' rather than 'relaxed' level), then it will not significantly reduce the sense of differentness, quite simply because there is differentness.
Just some thoughts about the ukip ground campaign.
It is very Nigel driven, most activists will go where he is, there is a hero worship factor that people outside the party fail to appreciate. At the GE people from all over the country descended on South Thanet, chaos ensued but it was the Farage factor, kippers want to be with him. Kippers will make the effort to support the big names, people on here have mentioned travelling to help Carswell, not sure Bickley has that pull.
Geographically Oldham is a long way from much of the core support.
John Bickley is decent man, runs a business, very grounded. I'm not sure he, or indeed many inside the party believes he can win.
Don't wish to sound negative, I'm trying to be realistic, if labour lose this they are finished as a party, just can't see it happening.
I was in Clacton last year on the day of the by election, and many of the party big wigs were too... When the Heywood and Middleton result came in, I couldn't help but wonder if more of them should have been up there... It seemed rather poor, and at the time I had the feeling that if this hadn't been the first seat UKIP were likely to win, resources would have been split more evenly... I had a sense of a mistake made/chance missed on the train home Friday morning
Someone who is allowed to write threads might consider a counterfactual on that premise re Ed Miliband losing one of labours northern strongholds?
Maybe Donald Brind? He gets a lot of stick but he isn't the worst thread writer on here
The problem with Donald's posts is he doesn't make an argument (like @DavidHerdson) or offer insight/betting tips (like the sadly missed @HenryManson). Interesting threads are more important than the party preferences of the writer
He just writes screes of Labour propaganda. If I wanted to read that I'd buy the Mirror.
May be @rcs1000 could enlighten us: given that most visitors don't go below the line, is there any difference between the number of total visitors on a Friday vs. other days an how does that compare to historical trends?
I don't get this thing about not going below the line. Comments load automatically for me when I open the page so how does anyone know whether I read them or not?
Some people just read the thread headers by only visiting www.politicalbetting.com and going no further.
@JosiasJessop Not heard the interview, but isn't it the media's job to grill the Gov't on important matters such as this ?
It reminded me of the situation during the ?Egyptian? crisis a few years ago, when the coalition got it massively in the neck from the media for not getting our people out as fast as the Germans, when in fact the work was going on in the background.
So far they have done nothing , we will see if that changes or if they are as inept as they seem.
To add, there are stories this morning that a UK charter flight dodged an Egyptian missile in the area of the crash a few weeks ago. The Egyptians admitted it was theirs from a training mission and apologised. This probably has some bearing on the recent action taken.
Egypt have just killed the remnants of their tourist industry stone dead.
I agree with you on most of it , the government record not so much. They can do it when it suits but it is only for pet projects that are in their interests, otherwise you are on your own.
It's hard to see why anyone should be complaining about HMG's actions so far. If people choose to take cheap holidays in unstable places, they should expect a little 'bother'. A few days waiting in an airport to fly back safely, whilst a diplomatic solution is bartered, is hardly the end of days.
Meanwhile Malky cracks open another tinny, and directs an evacuation from his soiled armchair.
Dear Dear what an odious creature
You really don't do self awareness do you?
Another cockroach appears
Now, now, MAlky, don't let your hangover get the better of you, you big jessie.
He had a big night knocking back a few bottles of home made Turnip Whine.
LOL, The Dumber and Dumber twins.
Been looking in the mirror Malc?
cue the dumbest of the dumb appearing , jog on loser
Good, let's hope the rozzers get to the bottom of this.
Four-hour police quiz for chief of scandal-hit Kids Company over child abuse allegations as detectives pursue criminal inquiry into shamed charity
Camila Batmanghelidjh visited investigators in East London on Thursday Scotland Yard is investigating reports of illegal activity involving children Claims include counsellor taking ecstasy with teenage boys
I agree entirely but I can't see a govt that spunked £millions encouraging the police to get involved.
This is another example of Cameron's poor judgement.
Did the problems only start in 2010? It does seem to be year zero for lots of people.
For example Surbiton's concern about manufacturing since 2010 but lack of interest in its decade long depression before that.
On the other hand there was no shortage of PB Tories who whined incessantly about the wellbeing of military personal up until May 2010 but lost all interest afterwards. You don't often read the phrase 'military covenant' these days on PB.
The military have never been better housed, Fed, equipped, trained or paid in their history. You may not believe it with the loud whining from a few attention seekers but it's true.
Just some thoughts about the ukip ground campaign.
It is very Nigel driven, most activists will go where he is, there is a hero worship factor that people outside the party fail to appreciate. At the GE people from all over the country descended on South Thanet, chaos ensued but it was the Farage factor, kippers want to be with him. Kippers will make the effort to support the big names, people on here have mentioned travelling to help Carswell, not sure Bickley has that pull.
Geographically Oldham is a long way from much of the core support.
John Bickley is decent man, runs a business, very grounded. I'm not sure he, or indeed many inside the party believes he can win.
Don't wish to sound negative, I'm trying to be realistic, if labour lose this they are finished as a party, just can't see it happening.
I was in Clacton last year on the day of the by election, and many of the party big wigs were too... When the Heywood and Middleton result came in, I couldn't help but wonder if more of them should have been up there... It seemed rather poor, and at the time I had the feeling that if this hadn't been the first seat UKIP were likely to win, resources would have been split more evenly... I had a sense of a mistake made/chance missed on the train home Friday morning
Someone who is allowed to write threads might consider a counterfactual on that premise re Ed Miliband losing one of labours northern strongholds?
Maybe Donald Brind? He gets a lot of stick but he isn't the worst thread writer on here
The problem with Donald's posts is he doesn't make an argument (like @DavidHerdson) or offer insight/betting tips (like the sadly missed @HenryManson). Interesting threads are more important than the party preferences of the writer
He just writes screes of Labour propaganda. If I wanted to read that I'd buy the Mirror.
May be @rcs1000 could enlighten us: given that most visitors don't go below the line, is there any difference between the number of total visitors on a Friday vs. other days an how does that compare to historical trends?
I don't get this thing about not going below the line. Comments load automatically for me when I open the page so how does anyone know whether I read them or not?
I'm guessing it's something to do with those who visit the top page, where only the thread leaders are visible, and those who go into the individual pages?
Iain Duncan Smith will resign if the chancellor carries out a £2 billion raid on his welfare reform to soften the impact of tax credit cuts, friends of the work and pensions secretary have said
Good morning all. A bit late in the day and still feeling rather tired after coming home from a family 60th wedding anniversary splash in TelAviv.
However once I was in TA I had a sort of vision - you know the one where a little lamp lights up - and thought about the EU referendum. Cameron can lose the referendum even with all the MSM and their tame hacks on his side, especially if the immigrant rate keeps flowing and the tide reaches British shores.
There would be one way to avoid defeat and that is to force a new GE on Britain immediately prior to any EuroRef vote. If Cameron was defeated by an out/no vote he would be a broken man politically anyway, so not much of a gamble for Cammo personally.
Anyway, just a thought.
Not allowable under the fixed term Parliament act I think.
It is allowable but it would be suicidal politics. Cameron could force it by resigning as PM, which would ensure that no-one else could form a government. In those circumstances, after two weeks, an election automatically follows. However, to renege on the referendum pledge and throw the country into an unnecessary election would not be well-received by voters, members of his own party or just about anyone else (though politicalbetting as a site might appreciate it!).
Good morning all. A bit late in the day and still feeling rather tired after coming home from a family 60th wedding anniversary splash in TelAviv.
However once I was in TA I had a sort of vision - you know the one where a little lamp lights up - and thought about the EU referendum. Cameron can lose the referendum even with all the MSM and their tame hacks on his side, especially if the immigrant rate keeps flowing and the tide reaches British shores.
There would be one way to avoid defeat and that is to force a new GE on Britain immediately prior to any EuroRef vote. If Cameron was defeated by an out/no vote he would be a broken man politically anyway, so not much of a gamble for Cammo personally.
Anyway, just a thought.
Not allowable under the fixed term Parliament act I think.
It is allowable but it would be suicidal politics. Cameron could force it by resigning as PM, which would ensure that no-one else could form a government. In those circumstances, after two weeks, an election automatically follows. However, to renege on the referendum pledge and throw the country into an unnecessary election would not be well-received by voters, members of his own party or just about anyone else (though politicalbetting as a site might appreciate it!).
David, I have a suggestion for your next thread
Labour must make an electoral reform pact to win in 2020
Nat le Roux argues that a one-off electoral reform pact between Labour and some or all of the minor parties in 2020, with a common manifesto commitment to introduce a new voting system, would likely result in a broad-left coalition government. Otherwise Labour may spend a generation in opposition.
WH is offering 8.5% a Labour win in Oldham for a month or so's investment.Anyone with a lump sum to invest ought to consider say 2.5% of capital as the bank and stake is 2.5% of total.It certainly does not get the animal spirits going but it's a far better rate for your money than other similar investments such as Premium Bonds. It's not what I call gambling so a definite no bet race in the win market but there maybe some potential in the size of majority market. Labour hold.
A 25% return tax free for a one day investment on the Conservatives in Brigg & Goole was certainly a nice little earner in May.
Though even I was surprised that they won so easily.
Am I the only PBer to be dismayed when I read the words "The Donald Brind Friday Column" as I did above his piece yesterday? This appears to treat him with a degree of authority and legitimacy as well as permanence, not even claimed by the likes of site owner OGH and in the eyes of many of us, judging by comments levelled at some of his previous contributions, certainly not as yet earned.
It is so the (my guess) 0.05 per cent of the audience that comments on PB is not forced to read without warning some text that disagrees with their worldview.
So to protect their politically (Conservative) correct worldview, those articles come with a Trigger Warning.
Am I the only PBer to be dismayed when I read the words "The Donald Brind Friday Column" as I did above his piece yesterday? This appears to treat him with a degree of authority and legitimacy as well as permanence, not even claimed by the likes of site owner OGH and in the eyes of many of us, judging by comments levelled at some of his previous contributions, certainly not as yet earned.
It is so the (my guess) 0.05 per cent of the audience that comments on PB is not forced to read without warning some text that disagrees with their worldview.
So to protect their politically (Conservative) correct worldview, those articles come with a Trigger Warning.
Good morning all. A bit late in the day and still feeling rather tired after coming home from a family 60th wedding anniversary splash in TelAviv.
However once I was in TA I had a sort of vision - you know the one where a little lamp lights up - and thought about the EU referendum. Cameron can lose the referendum even with all the MSM and their tame hacks on his side, especially if the immigrant rate keeps flowing and the tide reaches British shores.
There would be one way to avoid defeat and that is to force a new GE on Britain immediately prior to any EuroRef vote. If Cameron was defeated by an out/no vote he would be a broken man politically anyway, so not much of a gamble for Cammo personally.
Anyway, just a thought.
Not allowable under the fixed term Parliament act I think.
It is allowable but it would be suicidal politics. Cameron could force it by resigning as PM, which would ensure that no-one else could form a government. In those circumstances, after two weeks, an election automatically follows. However, to renege on the referendum pledge and throw the country into an unnecessary election would not be well-received by voters, members of his own party or just about anyone else (though politicalbetting as a site might appreciate it!).
David, I have a suggestion for your next thread
Labour must make an electoral reform pact to win in 2020
Nat le Roux argues that a one-off electoral reform pact between Labour and some or all of the minor parties in 2020, with a common manifesto commitment to introduce a new voting system, would likely result in a broad-left coalition government. Otherwise Labour may spend a generation in opposition.
I've just noticed the result of the No.1 Test side in the world
India 201 & 200 South Africa 184 & 109
Now that looks like a match to have seen.
Some highlights:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBUTeNsOhe4
I've watched the leave to take it to 10-3 about half a dozen times and I literally have no idea what was going through the batsman's head the ball was on a perfectly straight line to hit outside stump past his pads and does so. It jags a tiny bit so it hits centre stump rather than the outside stump but blimmin heck.
Good morning all. A bit late in the day and still feeling rather tired after coming home from a family 60th wedding anniversary splash in TelAviv.
However once I was in TA I had a sort of vision - you know the one where a little lamp lights up - and thought about the EU referendum. Cameron can lose the referendum even with all the MSM and their tame hacks on his side, especially if the immigrant rate keeps flowing and the tide reaches British shores.
There would be one way to avoid defeat and that is to force a new GE on Britain immediately prior to any EuroRef vote. If Cameron was defeated by an out/no vote he would be a broken man politically anyway, so not much of a gamble for Cammo personally.
Anyway, just a thought.
Not allowable under the fixed term Parliament act I think.
It is allowable but it would be suicidal politics. Cameron could force it by resigning as PM, which would ensure that no-one else could form a government. In those circumstances, after two weeks, an election automatically follows. However, to renege on the referendum pledge and throw the country into an unnecessary election would not be well-received by voters, members of his own party or just about anyone else (though politicalbetting as a site might appreciate it!).
David, I have a suggestion for your next thread
Labour must make an electoral reform pact to win in 2020
Nat le Roux argues that a one-off electoral reform pact between Labour and some or all of the minor parties in 2020, with a common manifesto commitment to introduce a new voting system, would likely result in a broad-left coalition government. Otherwise Labour may spend a generation in opposition.
I knew that they had gained two Chadderton wards from Labour that year but couldn't remember which ones.
The Conservatives made unlikely gains all over the country that year but their defeats in the Ealing-Haringay and Brent-Harrow GLA seats were a warning which way metroland was heading.
Amusing to see that the LibDems won 11 wards in Oldham in 2008.
Has a party ever fallen so far and so fast and so permanently ?
Good morning all. A bit late in the day and still feeling rather tired after coming home from a family 60th wedding anniversary splash in TelAviv.
However once I was in TA I had a sort of vision - you know the one where a little lamp lights up - and thought about the EU referendum. Cameron can lose the referendum even with all the MSM and their tame hacks on his side, especially if the immigrant rate keeps flowing and the tide reaches British shores.
There would be one way to avoid defeat and that is to force a new GE on Britain immediately prior to any EuroRef vote. If Cameron was defeated by an out/no vote he would be a broken man politically anyway, so not much of a gamble for Cammo personally.
Anyway, just a thought.
Not allowable under the fixed term Parliament act I think.
It is allowable but it would be suicidal politics. Cameron could force it by resigning as PM, which would ensure that no-one else could form a government. In those circumstances, after two weeks, an election automatically follows. However, to renege on the referendum pledge and throw the country into an unnecessary election would not be well-received by voters, members of his own party or just about anyone else (though politicalbetting as a site might appreciate it!).
David, I have a suggestion for your next thread
Labour must make an electoral reform pact to win in 2020
Nat le Roux argues that a one-off electoral reform pact between Labour and some or all of the minor parties in 2020, with a common manifesto commitment to introduce a new voting system, would likely result in a broad-left coalition government. Otherwise Labour may spend a generation in opposition.
Utter rubbish, Labour did quite well in the Blair years under FPTP when they had an electable leader, now it has a poor leader the system will punish it, trying to introduce electoral reform will not help it sneak through the back door, indeed on present polling a Tory-UKIP deal would be just as likely as a Labour-LD-SNP-Green one! When it gets a credible leader and credible policies then voters may start listening again
Just some thoughts about the ukip ground campaign.
It is very Nigel driven, most activists will go where he is, there is a hero worship factor that people outside the party fail to appreciate. At the GE people from all over the country descended on South Thanet, chaos ensued but it was the Farage factor, kippers want to be with him. Kippers will make the effort to support the big names, people on here have mentioned travelling to help Carswell, not sure Bickley has that pull.
Geographically Oldham is a long way from much of the core support.
John Bickley is decent man, runs a business, very grounded. I'm not sure he, or indeed many inside the party believes he can win.
Don't wish to sound negative, I'm trying to be realistic, if labour lose this they are finished as a party, just can't see it happening.
I was in Clacton last year on the day of the by election, and many of the party big wigs were too... When the Heywood and Middleton result came in, I couldn't help but wonder if more of them should have been up there... It seemed rather poor, and at the time I had the feeling that if this hadn't been the first seat UKIP were likely to win, resources would have been split more evenly... I had a sense of a mistake made/chance missed on the train home Friday morning
Someone who is allowed to write threads might consider a counterfactual on that premise re Ed Miliband losing one of labours northern strongholds?
Maybe Donald Brind? He gets a lot of stick but he isn't the worst thread writer on here
The problem with Donald's posts is he doesn't make an argument (like @DavidHerdson) or offer insight/betting tips (like the sadly missed @HenryManson). Interesting threads are more important than the party preferences of the writer
He just writes screes of Labour propaganda. If I wanted to read that I'd buy the Mirror.
May be @rcs1000 could enlighten us: given that most visitors don't go below the line, is there any difference between the number of total visitors on a Friday vs. other days an how does that compare to historical trends?
I don't get this thing about not going below the line. Comments load automatically for me when I open the page so how does anyone know whether I read them or not?
Some people just read the thread headers by only visiting www.politicalbetting.com and going no further.
Most users just come to politicalbetting.com and don't click the comments links on posts. Our traffic metrics show both the former and the latter so we know precisely how many
Just some thoughts about the ukip ground campaign.
It is very Nigel driven, most activists will go where he is, there is a hero worship Geographically Oldham is a long way from much of the core support.
John Bickley is decent man, runs a business, very grounded. I'm not sure he, or indeed many inside the party believes he can win.
Don't wish to sound negative, I'm trying to be realistic, if labour lose this they are finished as a party, just can't see it happening.
I was in Clacton last year on the day of the by election, and many of the party big wigs were too... When the Heywood and Middleton result came in, I couldn't help but wonder if more of them should have been up there... It seemed rather poor, and at the time I had the feeling that if this hadn't been the first seat UKIP were likely to win, resources would have been split more evenly... I had a sense of a mistake made/chance missed on the train home Friday morning
Someone who is allowed to write threads might consider a counterfactual on that premise re Ed Miliband losing one of labours northern strongholds?
Maybe Donald Brind? He gets a lot of stick but he isn't the worst thread writer on here
The problem with Donald's posts is he doesn't make an argument (like @DavidHerdson) or offer insight/betting tips (like the sadly missed @HenryManson). Interesting threads are more important than the party preferences of the writer
He just writes screes of Labour propaganda. If I wanted to read that I'd buy the Mirror.
May be @rcs1000 could enlighten us: given that most visitors don't go below the line, is there any difference between the number of total visitors on a Friday vs. other days an how does that compare to historical trends?
I don't get this thing about not going below the line. Comments load automatically for me when I open the page so how does anyone know whether I read them or not?
Some people just read the thread headers by only visiting www.politicalbetting.com and going no further.
Most users just come to politicalbetting.com and don't click the comments links on posts. Our traffic metrics show both the former and the latter so we know precisely how many
Including, if rumours are to be believed, a certain resident of No 10 Downing Street, when he wants to check the latest polling
Just some thoughts about the ukip ground campaign.
It is very Nigel driven, most activists will go where he is, there is a hero worship factor that people outside the party fail to appreciate. At the GE people from all over the country descended on South Thanet, chaos ensued but it was the Farage factor, kippers want to be with him. Kippers will make the effort to support the big names, people on here have mentioned travelling to help Carswell, not sure Bickley has that pull.
Geographically Oldham is a long way from much of the core support.
John Bickley is decent man, runs a business, very grounded. I'm not sure he, or indeed many inside the party believes he can win.
Don't wish to sound negative, I'm trying to be realistic, if labour lose this they are finished as a party, just can't see it happening.
I was in Clacton last year on the day of the by election, and many of the party big wigs were too... When the Heywood and Middleton result came in, I couldn't help but wonder if more of them should have been up there... It seemed rather poor, and at the time I had the feeling that if this hadn't been the first seat UKIP were likely to win, resources would have been split more evenly... I had a sense of a mistake made/chance missed on the train home Friday morning
Someone who is allowed to write threads might consider a counterfactual on that premise re Ed Miliband losing one of labours northern strongholds?
Maybe Donald Brind? He gets a lot of stick but he isn't the worst thread writer on here
The problem with Donald's posts is he doesn't make an argument (like @DavidHerdson) or offer insight/betting tips (like the sadly missed @HenryManson). Interesting threads are more important than the party preferences of the writer
He just writes screes of Labour propaganda. If I wanted to read that I'd buy the Mirror.
May be @rcs1000 could enlighten us: given that most visitors don't go below the line, is there any difference between the number of total visitors on a Friday vs. other days an how does that compare to historical trends?
I don't get this thing about not going below the line. Comments load automatically for me when I open the page so how does anyone know whether I read them or not?
Some people just read the thread headers by only visiting www.politicalbetting.com and going no further.
Most users just come to politicalbetting.com and don't click the comments links on posts. Our traffic metrics show both the former and the latter so we know precisely how many
Call me Dave must read below the line. What better way to chillax?
Good morning all. A bit late in the day and still feeling rather tired after coming home from a family 60th wedding anniversary splash in TelAviv.
However once I was in TA I had a sort of vision - you know the one where a little lamp lights up - and thought about the EU referendum. Cameron can lose the referendum even with all the MSM and their tame hacks on his side, especially if the immigrant rate keeps flowing and the tide reaches British shores.
There would be one way to avoid defeat and that is to force a new GE on Britain immediately prior to any EuroRef vote. If Cameron was defeated by an out/no vote he would be a broken man politically anyway, so not much of a gamble for Cammo personally.
Anyway, just a thought.
Not allowable under the fixed term Parliament act I think.
It is allowable but it would be suicidal politics. Cameron could force it by resigning as PM, which would ensure that no-one else could form a government. In those circumstances, after two weeks, an election automatically follows. However, to renege on the referendum pledge and throw the country into an unnecessary election would not be well-received by voters, members of his own party or just about anyone else (though politicalbetting as a site might appreciate it!).
David, I have a suggestion for your next thread
Labour must make an electoral reform pact to win in 2020
Nat le Roux argues that a one-off electoral reform pact between Labour and some or all of the minor parties in 2020, with a common manifesto commitment to introduce a new voting system, would likely result in a broad-left coalition government. Otherwise Labour may spend a generation in opposition.
Utter rubbish, Labour did quite well in the Blair years under FPTP when they had an electable leader, now it has a poor leader the system will punish it, trying to introduce electoral reform will not help it sneak through the back door, indeed on present polling a Tory-UKIP deal would be just as likely as a Labour-LD-SNP-Green one! When it gets a credible leader and credible policies then voters may start listening again
You may be right about the outcome, but I don't think a one-off electoral pact to stand for a government that's only act would be to change the electoral system can be considered "through the back door". It would very clear to voters what was on offer.
Good morning all. A bit late in the day and still feeling rather tired after coming home from a family 60th wedding anniversary splash in TelAviv.
However once I was in TA I had a sort of vision - you know the one where a little lamp lights up - and thought about the EU referendum. Cameron can lose the referendum even with all the MSM and their tame hacks on his side, especially if the immigrant rate keeps flowing and the tide reaches British shores.
There would be one way to avoid defeat and that is to force a new GE on Britain immediately prior to any EuroRef vote. If Cameron was defeated by an out/no vote he would be a broken man politically anyway, so not much of a gamble for Cammo personally.
Anyway, just a thought.
Not allowable under the fixed term Parliament act I think.
It is allowable but it would be suicidal politics. Cameron could force it by resigning as PM, which would ensure that no-one else could form a government. In those circumstances, after two weeks, an election automatically follows. However, to renege on the referendum pledge and throw the country into an unnecessary election would not be well-received by voters, members of his own party or just about anyone else (though politicalbetting as a site might appreciate it!).
David, I have a suggestion for your next thread
Labour must make an electoral reform pact to win in 2020
Nat le Roux argues that a one-off electoral reform pact between Labour and some or all of the minor parties in 2020, with a common manifesto commitment to introduce a new voting system, would likely result in a broad-left coalition government. Otherwise Labour may spend a generation in opposition.
Utter rubbish, Labour did quite well in the Blair years under FPTP when they had an electable leader, now it has a poor leader the system will punish it, trying to introduce electoral reform will not help it sneak through the back door, indeed on present polling a Tory-UKIP deal would be just as likely as a Labour-LD-SNP-Green one! When it gets a credible leader and credible policies then voters may start listening again
You may be right about the outcome, but I don't think a one-off electoral pact to stand for a government that's only act would be to change the electoral system can be considered "through the back door". It would very clear to voters what was on offer.
Never gonna happen.
Yes but voters already made clear their views on electoral reform in the defeated 2011 AV referendum
I think in some but not all areas that is true. It's worth remembering that between the last two elections the Conservatives have gained net 120 seats.
That won't just be from Middle Class voters.
Certainly the gains that the Conservatives have had since 2005 have depended upon wwc votes in many areas.
But I think they could have done even better and particularly better in areas that UKIP has now made itself the main challenger to Labour in.
I don't think the Conservative leadership were aware of the potential they had in previously hostile areas. They were instead comitted to an urban middle class strategy which dismally failed. If the Conservatives had made half as much effort in the likes of Don Valley or Derbyshire NE as they did in Hammersmith and Tooting they would likely have had better results.
Considering they made nearly 100 gains and gained Downing Street in Cameron's first GE and became the first party in government to gain both vote share and seats (AFAIK) post-war in the second I don't think its fair to say it "dismally failed".
Yes they could have gained more than 120 seats potentially. But compared to staying in Opposition and gaining just 33 seats from a very low base in the "are you thinking what we're thinking?" GE neither election was a dismal failure.
The current polls do suggest that Rubio and Cruz are breaking out of the "others" pack into a joint 3rd place around 11%, with Trump and Carson trading the lead in the low 20s. The question is who benefits if one of the leaders fades. Polls also show Clinton doing markedly better against Trump than anyone else.
What was the figure the Treasury expected to raise with IR35... how much did it actually raise ?
This idea that anyone who works for a company for more than a month will be classed as an employee automatically sounds pretty unworkable to me. Do they mean full-time for a month? Any contractor?
The current polls do suggest that Rubio and Cruz are breaking out of the "others" pack into a joint 3rd place around 11%, with Trump and Carson trading the lead in the low 20s. The question is who benefits if one of the leaders fades. Polls also show Clinton doing markedly better against Trump than anyone else.
And with yesturday's ONS data its time to update progress on the 'March of the Makers':
Manufacturing Output 2011q2 101.8 2015q3 101.0
Well Osborne didn't specify which direction the march would be.
Meanwhile the unheralded march of the debt funded imported tat consumers continues:
Retail Sails 2011q2 99.0 2015q3 111.4
Why 2011q2?
Osborne proclaimed the 'March of the Makers' in his 2011 Budget.
I would be curious to see a decades long graph for manufacturing. As far as I'm aware manufacturing has been decreasing rapidly for decades so to see just a 0.8% decline over 4.25 years implies less than 0.2% contraction per annum. That would mean a continuing export of some manufacturing and a march forward of others to buck the long-term trend.
But I suppose you wouldn't be happy unless we were producing "cheap tat" at <$1 per hour ourselves.
Good morning all. A bit late in the day and still feeling rather tired after coming home from a family 60th wedding anniversary splash in TelAviv.
However once I was in TA I had a sort of vision - you know the one where a little lamp lights up - and thought about the EU referendum. Cameron can lose the referendum even with all the MSM and their tame hacks on his side, especially if the immigrant rate keeps flowing and the tide reaches British shores.
There would be one way to avoid defeat and that is to force a new GE on Britain immediately prior to any EuroRef vote. If Cameron was defeated by an out/no vote he would be a broken man politically anyway, so not much of a gamble for Cammo personally.
Anyway, just a thought.
Not allowable under the fixed term Parliament act I think.
It is allowable but it would be suicidal politics. Cameron could force it by resigning as PM, which would ensure that no-one else could form a government. In those circumstances, after two weeks, an election automatically follows. However, to renege on the referendum pledge and throw the country into an unnecessary election would not be well-received by voters, members of his own party or just about anyone else (though politicalbetting as a site might appreciate it!).
David, I have a suggestion for your next thread
Labour must make an electoral reform pact to win in 2020
Nat le Roux argues that a one-off electoral reform pact between Labour and some or all of the minor parties in 2020, with a common manifesto commitment to introduce a new voting system, would likely result in a broad-left coalition government. Otherwise Labour may spend a generation in opposition.
I think in some but not all areas that is true. It's worth remembering that between the last two elections the Conservatives have gained net 120 seats.
That won't just be from Middle Class voters.
Certainly the gains that the Conservatives have had since 2005 have depended upon wwc votes in many areas.
But I think they could have done even better and particularly better in areas that UKIP has now made itself the main challenger to Labour in.
I don't think the Conservative leadership were aware of the potential they had in previously hostile areas. They were instead comitted to an urban middle class strategy which dismally failed. If the Conservatives had made half as much effort in the likes of Don Valley or Derbyshire NE as they did in Hammersmith and Tooting they would likely have had better results.
Considering they made nearly 100 gains and gained Downing Street in Cameron's first GE and became the first party in government to gain both vote share and seats (AFAIK) post-war in the second I don't think its fair to say it "dismally failed".
Yes they could have gained more than 120 seats potentially. But compared to staying in Opposition and gaining just 33 seats from a very low base in the "are you thinking what we're thinking?" GE neither election was a dismal failure.
The urban middle class strategy that the Conservative leadership invested so much time and money in certainly did dismally fail as can be seen in the results in Hammersmith, Tooting, Westminster North, Birmingham Edgbaston, Leeds NE, Sheffield Hallam, Edinburgh South and others.
The gains the Conservatives made weren't because the electorate suddenly decided to 'vote blue go green' or because they wanted to 'hug a hoodie' and increase Overseas Aid but because they wanted Gordon Brown out and didn't want Ed Miliband in especially not an Ed Miliband under the thumb of Nicola Sturgeon.
Despite being charged with failing to provide their names, they were released on bail to attend a trial next year - even though the authorities do not know who they are.
Magistrate Paul Brooks told them: "You have all pleaded not guilty to the offences which you have been charged with.
"The trial will take place in March next year – between then and now you have been granted unconditional bail."
Despite being charged with failing to provide their names, they were released on bail to attend a trial next year - even though the authorities do not know who they are.
Magistrate Paul Brooks told them: "You have all pleaded not guilty to the offences which you have been charged with.
"The trial will take place in March next year – between then and now you have been granted unconditional bail."
Unconditional bail for anonymous people? That seems utterly crazy!
And with yesturday's ONS data its time to update progress on the 'March of the Makers':
Manufacturing Output 2011q2 101.8 2015q3 101.0
Well Osborne didn't specify which direction the march would be.
Meanwhile the unheralded march of the debt funded imported tat consumers continues:
Retail Sails 2011q2 99.0 2015q3 111.4
Why 2011q2?
Osborne proclaimed the 'March of the Makers' in his 2011 Budget.
I would be curious to see a decades long graph for manufacturing. As far as I'm aware manufacturing has been decreasing rapidly for decades so to see just a 0.8% decline over 4.25 years implies less than 0.2% contraction per annum. That would mean a continuing export of some manufacturing and a march forward of others to buck the long-term trend.
But I suppose you wouldn't be happy unless we were producing "cheap tat" at <$1 per hour ourselves.</p>
Manufacturing output grew very smartly under Thatcher and Major (by 43% from 1979-97). It's contracted since 2000.
Good morning all. A bit late in the day and still feeling rather tired after coming home from a family 60th wedding anniversary splash in TelAviv.
However once I was in TA I had a sort of vision - you know the one where a little lamp lights up - and thought about the EU referendum. Cameron can lose the referendum even with all the MSM and their tame hacks on his side, especially if the immigrant rate keeps flowing and the tide reaches British shores.
There would be one way to avoid defeat and that is to force a new GE on Britain immediately prior to any EuroRef vote. If Cameron was defeated by an out/no vote he would be a broken man politically anyway, so not much of a gamble for Cammo personally.
Anyway, just a thought.
Not allowable under the fixed term Parliament act I think.
It is allowable but it would be suicidal politics. Cameron could force it by resigning as PM, which would ensure that no-one else could form a government. In those circumstances, after two weeks, an election automatically follows. However, to renege on the referendum pledge and throw the country into an unnecessary election would not be well-received by voters, members of his own party or just about anyone else (though politicalbetting as a site might appreciate it!).
David, I have a suggestion for your next thread
Labour must make an electoral reform pact to win in 2020
Nat le Roux argues that a one-off electoral reform pact between Labour and some or all of the minor parties in 2020, with a common manifesto commitment to introduce a new voting system, would likely result in a broad-left coalition government. Otherwise Labour may spend a generation in opposition.
Good, let's hope the rozzers get to the bottom of this.
Four-hour police quiz for chief of scandal-hit Kids Company over child abuse allegations as detectives pursue criminal inquiry into shamed charity
Camila Batmanghelidjh visited investigators in East London on Thursday Scotland Yard is investigating reports of illegal activity involving children Claims include counsellor taking ecstasy with teenage boys
I agree entirely but I can't see a govt that spunked £millions encouraging the police to get involved.
This is another example of Cameron's poor judgement.
Did the problems only start in 2010? It does seem to be year zero for lots of people.
For example Surbiton's concern about manufacturing since 2010 but lack of interest in its decade long depression before that.
On the other hand there was no shortage of PB Tories who whined incessantly about the wellbeing of military personal up until May 2010 but lost all interest afterwards. You don't often read the phrase 'military covenant' these days on PB.
Because the military covenant is being respected far better than pre 2010 now. If it wasn't you'd hear it all the time by the many critics of the government here.
Or the wellbeing of military personal were just a stick with which to beat Labour by people who didn't actually care about the wellbeing of military personal.
With the lack of criticism of this government's defence cuts and military accounting fiddles I know which I believe.
850 million being spent on Salisbury Plain for instance to house soldiers and families. In total on this general issue some 1.8 billion being spent. Unlike labour's fiddles, this defence budget and more importantly its commitments are affordable.
@JosiasJessop Not heard the interview, but isn't it the media's job to grill the Gov't on important matters such as this ?
It reminded me of the situation during the ?Egyptian? crisis a few years ago, when the coalition got it massively in the neck from the media for not getting our people out as fast as the Germans, when in fact the work was going on in the background.
Are you thinking of the Libyan evacuation? Our planes were a day later than those of other nations to arrive in Tripoli, but when they did get there there were a few diplomats on board.
From the Hereford branch of the Diplomatic Service, in green uniforms and with large bags!
They turned up 3 or 4 days later in the middle of the desert, where there were a bunch of stranded Western oil workers. They'd cleared a runway in the sand for a Hercules sneak into the country past the bombed out Radar stations, land in the desert and pick them all up. Every single Brit in the country got out, and that last airlift took a load of other nations oil workers out with it too.
There will probably be a book written about the mission in a few years' time, Britian again reminding the world that she is really good at stuff like this - as we see again this week in Egypt.
Actually please can I correct you on that. Not every single Brit got out. The rescue of the oil workers was a combined operation with forces from a number of European countries but at least 2 drilling rigs in central southern Libya were missed. One of my colleagues tried 3 times to get out of the country subsequent to the airlift including an attempted run up to Benghazi which failed. Eventually they travelled south into Niger and got out that way. The biggest help to them were the local Libyan oil workers and some of the local Libyan army who had been guarding the rigs and who stuck with the expats and saw them safely home.
Always appreciate your industry-related posts, Richard. Thanks for this.
Le Roux has UKIP down within his coalition. Presumably because it doesn't work any other way.
I am in the middle of taking his suggestion apart and, Mike permitting, hope it'll go up later this afternoon.
In that case, I will leave the egregious le Roux's detailed defenestration in your capable hands.
If he went back to university, as @isam has said, then clearly it was EITHER a very bad university OR he failed his exams. Or, at the very least, he was not doing politics.
Good, let's hope the rozzers get to the bottom of this.
Four-hour police quiz for chief of scandal-hit Kids Company over child abuse allegations as detectives pursue criminal inquiry into shamed charity
Camila Batmanghelidjh visited investigators in East London on Thursday Scotland Yard is investigating reports of illegal activity involving children Claims include counsellor taking ecstasy with teenage boys
I agree entirely but I can't see a govt that spunked £millions encouraging the police to get involved.
This is another example of Cameron's poor judgement.
Did the problems only start in 2010? It does seem to be year zero for lots of people.
For example Surbiton's concern about manufacturing since 2010 but lack of interest in its decade long depression before that.
On the other hand there was no shortage of PB Tories who whined incessantly about the wellbeing of military personal up until May 2010 but lost all interest afterwards. You don't often read the phrase 'military covenant' these days on PB.
Because the military covenant is being respected far better than pre 2010 now. If it wasn't you'd hear it all the time by the many critics of the government here.
Or the wellbeing of military personal were just a stick with which to beat Labour by people who didn't actually care about the wellbeing of military personal.
With the lack of criticism of this government's defence cuts and military accounting fiddles I know which I believe.
850 million being spent on Salisbury Plain for instance to house soldiers and families. In total on this general issue some 1.8 billion being spent. Unlike labour's fiddles, this defence budget and more importantly its commitments are affordable.
Bleat, bleat, bleat
Has CCHQ sent you that drivel to spout ?
Altogether now:
Our spending good, your spending bad. Our spending good, your spending bad. Our spending good, your spending bad. Our spending good, your spending bad. Our spending good, your spending bad .....
And with yesturday's ONS data its time to update progress on the 'March of the Makers':
Manufacturing Output 2011q2 101.8 2015q3 101.0
Well Osborne didn't specify which direction the march would be.
Meanwhile the unheralded march of the debt funded imported tat consumers continues:
Retail Sails 2011q2 99.0 2015q3 111.4
Why 2011q2?
Osborne proclaimed the 'March of the Makers' in his 2011 Budget.
I would be curious to see a decades long graph for manufacturing. As far as I'm aware manufacturing has been decreasing rapidly for decades so to see just a 0.8% decline over 4.25 years implies less than 0.2% contraction per annum. That would mean a continuing export of some manufacturing and a march forward of others to buck the long-term trend.
But I suppose you wouldn't be happy unless we were producing "cheap tat" at <$1 per hour ourselves.</p>
Far from 'decreasing rapidly for decades' UK manufacturing output more than doubled between 1950 and 2000. This was despite the problems it faced in the 1970s and 1980s - strikes, oil shocks, increasing world competition etc. Since 2000 it has been in depression, not helped and often handicapped by the actions of governments.
What would make me happy would be less of the high energy costs and endless rules and regulations which have been so detrimental at the business for which I work.
@JosiasJessop Not heard the interview, but isn't it the media's job to grill the Gov't on important matters such as this ?
It reminded me of the situation during the ?Egyptian? crisis a few years ago, when the coalition got it massively in the neck from the media for not getting our people out as fast as the Germans, when in fact the work was going on in the background.
Are you thinking of the Libyan evacuation? Our planes were a day later than those of other nations to arrive in Tripoli, but when they did get there there were a few diplomats on board.
From the Hereford branch of the Diplomatic Service, in green uniforms and with large bags!
They turned up 3 or 4 days later in the middle of the desert, where there were a bunch of stranded Western oil workers. They'd cleared a runway in the sand for a Hercules sneak into the country past the bombed out Radar stations, land in the desert and pick them all up. Every single Brit in the country got out, and that last airlift took a load of other nations oil workers out with it too.
There will probably be a book written about the mission in a few years' time, Britian again reminding the world that she is really good at stuff like this - as we see again this week in Egypt.
Actually please can I correct you on that. Not every single Brit got out. The rescue of the oil workers was a combined operation with forces from a number of European countries but at least 2 drilling rigs in central southern Libya were missed. One of my colleagues tried 3 times to get out of the country subsequent to the airlift including an attempted run up to Benghazi which failed. Eventually they travelled south into Niger and got out that way. The biggest help to them were the local Libyan oil workers and some of the local Libyan army who had been guarding the rigs and who stuck with the expats and saw them safely home.
Always appreciate your industry-related posts, Richard. Thanks for this.
Yep. Thanks @Richard_Tyndall for the clarification, and glad that they all did get out in the end.
And with yesturday's ONS data its time to update progress on the 'March of the Makers':
Manufacturing Output 2011q2 101.8 2015q3 101.0
Well Osborne didn't specify which direction the march would be.
Meanwhile the unheralded march of the debt funded imported tat consumers continues:
Retail Sails 2011q2 99.0 2015q3 111.4
Why 2011q2?
Osborne proclaimed the 'March of the Makers' in his 2011 Budget.
I would be curious to see a decades long graph for manufacturing. As far as I'm aware manufacturing has been decreasing rapidly for decades so to see just a 0.8% decline over 4.25 years implies less than 0.2% contraction per annum. That would mean a continuing export of some manufacturing and a march forward of others to buck the long-term trend.
But I suppose you wouldn't be happy unless we were producing "cheap tat" at <$1 per hour ourselves.</p>
Far from 'decreasing rapidly for decades' UK manufacturing output more than doubled between 1950 and 2000. This was despite the problems it faced in the 1970s and 1980s - strikes, oil shocks, increasing world competition etc. Since 2000 it has been in depression, not helped and often handicapped by the actions of governments.
What would make me happy would be less of the high energy costs and endless rules and regulations which have been so detrimental at the business for which I work.
Manufacturing includes oil which rose rapidly and then has been in decline. In comparison with other sectors manufacturing is a smaller part of the economy, but in terms of total output manufacturing is at least as high as the 70's if not higher. Also its likely that some aspects of what was called manufacturing, ie transport, have been contracted out and are classed as services. It would be interesting to see the selected year 2008 figure.
And with yesturday's ONS data its time to update progress on the 'March of the Makers':
Manufacturing Output 2011q2 101.8 2015q3 101.0
Well Osborne didn't specify which direction the march would be.
Meanwhile the unheralded march of the debt funded imported tat consumers continues:
Retail Sails 2011q2 99.0 2015q3 111.4
Why 2011q2?
Osborne proclaimed the 'March of the Makers' in his 2011 Budget.
I would be curious to see a decades long graph for manufacturing. As far as I'm aware manufacturing has been decreasing rapidly for decades so to see just a 0.8% decline over 4.25 years implies less than 0.2% contraction per annum. That would mean a continuing export of some manufacturing and a march forward of others to buck the long-term trend.
But I suppose you wouldn't be happy unless we were producing "cheap tat" at <$1 per hour ourselves.</p>
Far from 'decreasing rapidly for decades' UK manufacturing output more than doubled between 1950 and 2000. This was despite the problems it faced in the 1970s and 1980s - strikes, oil shocks, increasing world competition etc. Since 2000 it has been in depression, not helped and often handicapped by the actions of governments.
What would make me happy would be less of the high energy costs and endless rules and regulations which have been so detrimental at the business for which I work.
But, but, but those high energy costs are necessary if we are to save the planet. Will you not think of the polar bears?
There was an interesting article yesterday in the Telegraph on the use of robots in manufacturing. The UK is well down the list of robot users, part of why our productivity figures are so crap. But in a nutshell our businesses can either invest in technology and survive or continue to reply on cheap labour and go under. I wonder which way our vastly overpaid captains of industry will go.
And with yesturday's ONS data its time to update progress on the 'March of the Makers':
Manufacturing Output 2011q2 101.8 2015q3 101.0
Well Osborne didn't specify which direction the march would be.
Meanwhile the unheralded march of the debt funded imported tat consumers continues:
Retail Sails 2011q2 99.0 2015q3 111.4
Why 2011q2?
Osborne proclaimed the 'March of the Makers' in his 2011 Budget.
I would be curious to see a decades long graph for manufacturing. As far as I'm aware manufacturing has been decreasing rapidly for decades so to see just a 0.8% decline over 4.25 years implies less than 0.2% contraction per annum. That would mean a continuing export of some manufacturing and a march forward of others to buck the long-term trend.
But I suppose you wouldn't be happy unless we were producing "cheap tat" at <$1 per hour ourselves.</p>
Far from 'decreasing rapidly for decades' UK manufacturing output more than doubled between 1950 and 2000. This was despite the problems it faced in the 1970s and 1980s - strikes, oil shocks, increasing world competition etc. Since 2000 it has been in depression, not helped and often handicapped by the actions of governments.
What would make me happy would be less of the high energy costs and endless rules and regulations which have been so detrimental at the business for which I work.
Manufacturing includes oil which rose rapidly and then has been in decline. In comparison with other sectors manufacturing is a smaller part of the economy, but in terms of total output manufacturing is at least as high as the 70's if not higher. Also its likely that some aspects of what was called manufacturing, ie transport, have been contracted out and are classed as services. It would be interesting to see the selected year 2008 figure.
Manufacturing does NOT include oil or any other energy production.
The wider industiral output data includes oil, mining etc.
Comments
I am not sure that is the case. A more likely reason is that now we have stopped fighting there are far fewer stories emerging about the way service personnel are treated. I do not believe for one moment that our service men and women are treated any better under Cameron's governments than they were under Blair and Brown.
There is at least one regular poster on this site who has personal experience of how Osborne's first attack on service pay and conditions didn't match Cameron's pre-election posturing and there is actually an article in today's Telegraph on the latest set of cuts Osborne is seeking to impose.
http://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/nov/05/integrated-school-waterford-academy-oldham?CMP=ema-1133
Or the wellbeing of military personal were just a stick with which to beat Labour by people who didn't actually care about the wellbeing of military personal.
With the lack of criticism of this government's defence cuts and military accounting fiddles I know which I believe.
http://tinyurl.com/q2tccv9
What the author doesn't say is what the really bad consequences could be. There's lots of stuff about it discouraging people to save, but does this really matter?
What incentive is there for Carney and the rest of the MPC to take tough decisions so long as they can get through to the end of their tenure without something going seriously wrong?
There was probably no need for Farage, Suzanne Evans, Carswell, O'Flynn, & Reckless to all be there on polling day to ensure victory
UK energy policy in action:
http://www.theguardian.com/business/video/2014/jul/27/didcot-power-station-cooling-towers-demolished-video
Meanwhile Germany is building multiple coal fired power stations.
At the 2008 local elections the Conservatives were ahead of Labour in Heywood & Middleton constituency. Also ahead in Stalybridge, Morley, Don Valley, Rother Valley, Worsley, Bassetlaw and a few other such places.
With the exception of Morley & Outwood where the Conservaties had an energetic local party and national publicity (because of Ed Balls) much of the support the Conservatives gained in those areas moved onto UKIP.
That won't just be from Middle Class voters.
However once I was in TA I had a sort of vision - you know the one where a little lamp lights up - and thought about the EU referendum. Cameron can lose the referendum even with all the MSM and their tame hacks on his side, especially if the immigrant rate keeps flowing and the tide reaches British shores.
There would be one way to avoid defeat and that is to force a new GE on Britain immediately prior to any EuroRef vote. If Cameron was defeated by an out/no vote he would be a broken man politically anyway, so not much of a gamble for Cammo personally.
Anyway, just a thought.
Not sure how this would work. Wouldn't Cameron have to go into such an election with another commitment to a referendum in order to keep backbenchers from outright mutiny?
However, the bit at the end of the Conservative section is right. What I'm meaning is that were it the Tories to put pressure on Labour by cutting Labour's majority and finishing a clear second, that wouldn't be too bad for the Tories, even were the consequence to be to destabilise Corbyn. However, if it's UKIP that destabilises him while the Tories go backwards then that's the worst of all worlds for the Blues.
India 201 & 200
South Africa 184 & 109
Now that looks like a match to have seen.
But I think they could have done even better and particularly better in areas that UKIP has now made itself the main challenger to Labour in.
I don't think the Conservative leadership were aware of the potential they had in previously hostile areas. They were instead comitted to an urban middle class strategy which dismally failed. If the Conservatives had made half as much effort in the likes of Don Valley or Derbyshire NE as they did in Hammersmith and Tooting they would likely have had better results.
It's not what I call gambling so a definite no bet race in the win market but there maybe some potential in the size of majority market.
Labour hold.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBUTeNsOhe4
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/nov/06/crackdown-on-personal-service-companies-could-raise-400m-in-tax
Allport believed that prejudice flowed from ignorance: people made generalisations about an entire group because they lacked information about that group. Contact with members of the other group could correct mistaken perceptions, improve empathy and diminish prejudice
It can equally reinforce perceptions, either because they are objectively valid, or because people have a tendency to see what they're looking for - hence even if there isn't truly objective evidence to validate a perception then as long as there are enough individual cases, whatever contra-indicators there may be, the prejudice will be maintained.
And while contact can improve empathy, it may do so only on an individual basis if the conclusion people come to is 'decent but different'. It's interesting that the example chosen is of two 12 year-olds, not two 17-year olds. In my experience, muslim communities are reasonably tolerant of how children play but socialising becomes more restricted as children become young adults.
The implications [of Tajfel's experiment] are profoundly unsettling. It shows how easy it is to switch on discrimination: our belonging to social groups is fundamental to our social identity and we like to see “us” as better than “them”.
That final assertion is wrong (though typical of the Guardian mindset which feels duty bound to infer a value judgement from any expression of preference). It is surely deeply embedded in our natural instincts to look after and protect our own: our family, our friends, our community. Not only is this an ingrained emotional response that dates back probably before the human race even existed, it also exists for logical reasons: there is a mutuality in implicit support for members of groups and the mere act of preference reinforces this. A group that did not act in that way is not a group in any meaningful sense, merely a collection.
And therein lies the problem for any scheme like this. People can and obviously do belong to many groups, some of which are cross-cutting, but as long as cultural behaviours prevent socialising (or at least reduce it to a 'polite' rather than 'relaxed' level), then it will not significantly reduce the sense of differentness, quite simply because there is differentness.
I've realised who you remind me of.
Squealer from Animal Farm.
Iain Duncan Smith will resign if the chancellor carries out a £2 billion raid on his welfare reform to soften the impact of tax credit cuts, friends of the work and pensions secretary have said
Labour must make an electoral reform pact to win in 2020
Nat le Roux argues that a one-off electoral reform pact between Labour and some or all of the minor parties in 2020, with a common manifesto commitment to introduce a new voting system, would likely result in a broad-left coalition government. Otherwise Labour may spend a generation in opposition.
http://bit.ly/1Qaj2iT
Though even I was surprised that they won so easily.
So to protect their politically (Conservative) correct worldview, those articles come with a Trigger Warning.
Chadderton Central 45.33% 25.45%
Chadderton North 45.28% 20.14%
Chadderton South 43.08% 33.69%
Hollinwood 54.35% 26.36%
Royton North 45.52% 22.87%
Royton South 46.30% 23.33%
Coldhurst 78.15% 8.51%
Medlock Vale 54.91% 22.87%
Werneth 80.66% 4.21%
Manufacturing Output
2011q2 101.8
2015q3 101.0
Well Osborne didn't specify which direction the march would be.
Meanwhile the unheralded march of the debt funded imported tat consumers continues:
Retail Sails
2011q2 99.0
2015q3 111.4
http://councillors.knowsley.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=163&RPID=2593465&StyleType=standard&StyleSize=none
And 89% in Stockbridge:
http://councillors.knowsley.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=176&RPID=2593474&StyleType=standard&StyleSize=none
http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2008/42/
I knew that they had gained two Chadderton wards from Labour that year but couldn't remember which ones.
The Conservatives made unlikely gains all over the country that year but their defeats in the Ealing-Haringay and Brent-Harrow GLA seats were a warning which way metroland was heading.
Amusing to see that the LibDems won 11 wards in Oldham in 2008.
Has a party ever fallen so far and so fast and so permanently ?
Never gonna happen.
REMAIN 56%, LEAVE 28%. Unionist voters are more than two-to-one against EU membership (REMAIN 21%, LEAVE 54%), Nationalist voters are overwhelmingly pro-EU (REMAIN 91%, LEAVE 8%).
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/debateni/bill-white/how-will-northern-ireland-vote-in-the-upcoming-eu-referendum-34176966.html
Halewood West 88.2%
Kirkby Central 85.5%
Longview 93.8%
Page Moss 93.3%
St Bartholemws 88.3%
St Michaels 92.8%
Stockbridge 92.2%
Swanside 91.0%
And what has Knowsley received from this loyalty to Labour ?
Yes they could have gained more than 120 seats potentially. But compared to staying in Opposition and gaining just 33 seats from a very low base in the "are you thinking what we're thinking?" GE neither election was a dismal failure.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/insiders-carson-cant-win-215566
The current polls do suggest that Rubio and Cruz are breaking out of the "others" pack into a joint 3rd place around 11%, with Trump and Carson trading the lead in the low 20s. The question is who benefits if one of the leaders fades. Polls also show Clinton doing markedly better against Trump than anyone else.
But I suppose you wouldn't be happy unless we were producing "cheap tat" at <$1 per hour ourselves.
The gains the Conservatives made weren't because the electorate suddenly decided to 'vote blue go green' or because they wanted to 'hug a hoodie' and increase Overseas Aid but because they wanted Gordon Brown out and didn't want Ed Miliband in especially not an Ed Miliband under the thumb of Nicola Sturgeon.
I am in the middle of taking his suggestion apart and, Mike permitting, hope it'll go up later this afternoon.
With the lack of criticism of this government's defence cuts and military accounting fiddles I know which I believe.
850 million being spent on Salisbury Plain for instance to house soldiers and families.
In total on this general issue some 1.8 billion being spent.
Unlike labour's fiddles, this defence budget and more importantly its commitments are affordable.
If he went back to university, as @isam has said, then clearly it was EITHER a very bad university OR he failed his exams. Or, at the very least, he was not doing politics.
In total on this general issue some 1.8 billion being spent.
Unlike labour's fiddles, this defence budget and more importantly its commitments are affordable.
Bleat, bleat, bleat
Has CCHQ sent you that drivel to spout ?
Altogether now:
Our spending good, your spending bad.
Our spending good, your spending bad.
Our spending good, your spending bad.
Our spending good, your spending bad.
Our spending good, your spending bad .....
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/data-selector.html?cdid=K22A&dataset=diop&table-id=A1
Selected years:
1950 47.0
1960 63.8
1970 85.5
1980 82.6
1990 99.8
2000 108.0
2010 99.3
Far from 'decreasing rapidly for decades' UK manufacturing output more than doubled between 1950 and 2000. This was despite the problems it faced in the 1970s and 1980s - strikes, oil shocks, increasing world competition etc. Since 2000 it has been in depression, not helped and often handicapped by the actions of governments.
What would make me happy would be less of the high energy costs and endless rules and regulations which have been so detrimental at the business for which I work.
In comparison with other sectors manufacturing is a smaller part of the economy, but in terms of total output manufacturing is at least as high as the 70's if not higher.
Also its likely that some aspects of what was called manufacturing, ie transport, have been contracted out and are classed as services.
It would be interesting to see the selected year 2008 figure.
There was an interesting article yesterday in the Telegraph on the use of robots in manufacturing. The UK is well down the list of robot users, part of why our productivity figures are so crap. But in a nutshell our businesses can either invest in technology and survive or continue to reply on cheap labour and go under. I wonder which way our vastly overpaid captains of industry will go.
The wider industiral output data includes oil, mining etc.
Data here:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/data-selector.html?cdid=K222&dataset=diop&table-id=A1
This shows both a sharper rise and a sharper fall than manufacturing because of the effect of North Sea Oil:
1950 42.2
1960 56.3
1970 75.0
1980 83.2
1990 102.1
2000 116.1
2010 103.4