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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What the parties should be looking for in Oldham
So for the second parliament running, the first by-election in it will take place in Oldham. Unlike neighbouring Oldham East & Saddleworth, Michael Meacher’s former seat does not, on the face of it, look all that interesting: it reliably returned Labour members for decades and did so with a majority of close to 15,000 and more than half the vote last time out.
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I think I left my stomach on the previous thread.....
FPT @Tim
I had never heard of the bloke, but having Goggled him up I can say, looking at his picture on Wikki:
I am at least 50lbs lighter than he is.
He doesn't have a proper moustache. A smear of boot polish above the upper lip is not the same as a fully functional walrus (even if mine is mostly white these days).
My expectation is that UKIP themselves probably can't get over 35-40% at absolute max, and they would need a strong LibDem or Green candidate to take extra chunks out of the Labour vote for them to have a chance.
Good night all.
One small snag, it was Heywood and Middleton that John Bickley almost won last year, not Wythenshawe... And at the end of the Conservative section, is it supposed to say 'a consequence of Conservative success' or 'conservative failure'?
Maybe I've misread
And that's two snags
These prices are almost identical to those in Heywood and Middleton... Ukip 8/1... I can't see it, it seems like an easy labour hold... Hope I'm wrong and Ukip win but can't find a bet personally
The derivatives may offer some value perhaps
"...That's before you even consider the damage Carswell's votes in Parliament are doing to UKIP's Red Kipper appeal. ..."
Mr. 565, I am a bit of a political anorak and I have no idea how Carswell has been voting in Parliament. The number of ordinary voters in the constituency who will know of his voting record must be very small and of that tiny number those who will allow that knowledge to influence their vote can probably be counted without the necessity of taking one's socks off.
That said, UKIP haven't got a cat in hell's chance of winning the seat .
And arguably it will mainly be only political anoraks who bother vote in a byelection on a cold December day anyway
Viagra and FIAT - what more could there be? Here's the Superbowl commercial....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lcc62nrl9Y
Most PB users don't open the comments
I live in the north eastern suburbs of Atlanta GA.
Also, by-election turnout is not unconnected to the tactical situation. One can see states of the world in which the Conservatives and Lib Dems win about four thousand votes between them. Just practically speaking, all evidence is that the Conservative canvassing operation was very expensive and they may not wish to spend hedgies' money on a campaign in a third-place seat in Oldham. Contra Herdson they can finish fourth in Oldham and places like Oldham forever and it doesn't matter in FPTP as long as they win North Warwickshire and Bedford. Not all of those abstainers will go to Ukip (or Labour) and this would mean a mechanistic boost to the winner's vote share and share lead without any intrinsic significance for their national popularity.
Which reminds me of a bit of graffiti I once read:
"Age and experience will always triumph over youth and energy"
Underneath which was written in an obviously feminine hand:
"Dream on, grandad"
Prime time Debate - Kasich, Bush, Rubio, Trump, Carson, Cruz, Fiorina, Paul.
Happy hour debate - Santorum, Christie, Huckabee, Jindal.
Not debating at all - Graham, Pataki, Gilmore
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CTIjK_IWcAAwwEi.jpg:large
British man describes paying £20 to skip security at Sharm el-Sheikh airport a few months ago as "amusing at the time".
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/russian-plane-crash-sharm-el-sheikh-airport-security-concerns-raised-after-tourists-pay-20-to-skip-a6723591.html
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2010/23/section/6
HSBC and Standard Chartered are British banks, in that they are domiciled in Britain.
But, in the latter case at least, that is about all the contact they have with the UK.
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/lib-dem-leader-tim-farron-10399785#ICID=sharebar_twitter
When the leader of the barely registering a vote, seldom saving a deposit, dead parrot party which has never come better than third in the seat and indeed came fourth behind the BNP in 2001 is claiming another party's "reason to exist" has gone, perhaps he should be looking in a mirror first.
That he could even suggest a party that recorded 3.7% of the vote in May and lost their deposit could be remotely meaningful in the by-election doesn't actually come across as desperation. It's delusional fantasy.
OFCOM really have to get into gear and award them minor party status. Wasting coverage on their irrelevant nonsense does the electorate a dis-service.
The days when the Yellows were accorded near equal coverage with the likes of the Tories and Labour are now long gone and they'd better get used to the fact that until proved otherwise at the ballot box, the LibDems are a small and relatively insignificant party and should be treated as such.
Taxi!
I ask this, as Radio 4 gave a minister a very hard time yesterday over the cancellations.
It'll be interesting to know the intelligence we obtained - and I doubt we ever will in detail. For instance, there has been talk about intercepted calls from the militants. Were these before or after the fact? And do they say anything specific about follow-ups, or about means, which might include something we need to increase our own airport security for?
In the meantime, I just feel sorry for the average Egyptian. Their economy's going to be hurt by this. A consequence might be that the Egyptian government will go hard against the militants. Or not.
These Islamist attacks have been going on against tourists in Egypt for nearly twenty years, the biggie being the barbarous Luxor attacks. How much more can the country stand?
The important immediate thing is to try to ensure we get our citizens back safely. Humphreys seemed unable to grasp that.
It reminded me of the situation during the ?Egyptian? crisis a few years ago, when the coalition got it massively in the neck from the media for not getting our people out as fast as the Germans, when in fact the work was going on in the background.
Mr Herdson also touches on the fine line between appealing to the WWCs without opening yourself up to allegations of racism, Labour won't hesitate to play dirty if they have to whereas UKIP have to appear to be whiter than white ( that doesn't sound good).
8/1 UKIP isn't value, I make Bickley 25/1 as much as I'd love to see him win.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agadir_Crisis
Origin of the term "gunboat diplomacy" I believe
With the new register not yet in place and on-the-day turnout on a cold December day likely to be lukewarm at best, this will be won on which side can get the postal vote out.
Dare I say it, but Labour's voter demographics tend to be better organised in this regard, with the 'community leaders' preaching to them every Friday lunchtime to ensure the Labour vote goes in the post.
It's a no bet from me at this stage, looks too much like a foregone conclusion.
Labour have picked a good candidate and should win comfortably, the interest will be in percentage shares. I think that the Con and LD parties would rather push UKIP into 3rd or 4th place than tacity support them. I forecast that they will fail to do so.
From the Hereford branch of the Diplomatic Service, in green uniforms and with large bags!
They turned up 3 or 4 days later in the middle of the desert, where there were a bunch of stranded Western oil workers. They'd cleared a runway in the sand for a Hercules sneak into the country past the bombed out Radar stations, land in the desert and pick them all up. Every single Brit in the country got out, and that last airlift took a load of other nations oil workers out with it too.
There will probably be a book written about the mission in a few years' time, Britian again reminding the world that she is really good at stuff like this - as we see again this week in Egypt.
I remember Hague as foreign secretary at the time was getting it from the media, I thought there must be a reason behind the delay. And so it turned out.
Other parties will be attacking Labour over Corbyn. It will be interesting to see how these pan out. UKIP have started with both barrels. The Labour candidate is clearly not a Corbynista so we could see the Labour party washing its dirty linen in public if the Labour candidate wins on an explicitly anti-Corbyn campaign.
The protocol is that all nations and organisations involved pass their findings to the lead investigation country, who are the only people who will release public statements. In this case the lead is with Egypt, where the accident occurred. We have heard precisely nothing from them so far in this investigation, so this will be the first on-the-record briefing.
It is very Nigel driven, most activists will go where he is, there is a hero worship factor that people outside the party fail to appreciate. At the GE people from all over the country descended on South Thanet, chaos ensued but it was the Farage factor, kippers want to be with him. Kippers will make the effort to support the big names, people on here have mentioned travelling to help Carswell, not sure Bickley has that pull.
Geographically Oldham is a long way from much of the core support.
John Bickley is decent man, runs a business, very grounded. I'm not sure he, or indeed many inside the party believes he can win.
Don't wish to sound negative, I'm trying to be realistic, if labour lose this they are finished as a party, just can't see it happening.
This is another example of Cameron's poor judgement.
I think their deposit is safe
@juliahobsbawm: The Soley/Livingstone @BBCr4today interview formed single impression: Meltdown
Essentially, a compromise was reached which allowed Ali to be the hereditary governor of a semi-independent Egypt (including the Sudan at that time) while the Ottomans officially controlled it for another 60 years. The only problem was, it was a mess.
If the weather's as bad as it was this morning, it'll need enormo-haddock activists to go round the streets. Suspect there'll be flooding in places.
I think too that until UKIP contested lots of elections, they didn't know where their strongest support was. Three years ago, we all assumed UKIP would do best in places like Devon, Cornwall, Surrey, Somerset, Hampshire, and that their support was mostly ex-Conservative. It turned out, that wasn't the case at all.
Incidentally, it is really quite tricky to get breakfast in Kensington on a Saturday before 8am....only place I could find open was a nice little cafe on Walton st.
@Dair - don't forget that while they only have a few MPs, the Liberal Democrats were in government more recently than Labour (and on current trends, are about as likely to win the next general election as Labour are). It is also far from impossible that after May, Labour will not be in power anywhere in the UK* but the Liberal Democrats might still be part of a coalition government in Wales. Moreover they still have - however wrongly - 139 members of the upper house of parliament, where they are the third-largest actual group. So I think for the moment we should go easy on the 'minor party' status.
If after the next election they are making no progress, on the other hand...
*Labour will lose badly in Scotland - I think we all agree on that! Indeed, the interesting question is whether they are certain to come second. Sadiq Khan is not by any means out of the London mayoral race, but at the moment he's not the favourite. That leaves Carwyn Jones in Wales. At the moment I would say his chances of staying in power are no better than even. I think Corbyn will shore up Labour's vote in the valleys, but it could easily come at the cost of forfeiting every other seat they hold including list seats. If that vote moved to the Conservatives instead of Plaid Cymru, a Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition in the Bay might be the most viable option. And, given Plaid Cymru is essentially a Socialist party at the moment, after a few years of trying to broaden its appeal, I doubt if many of the fairly small-c conservative voters of Wales outside the Valleys will look kindly on it. I don't know what the odds are, but there seems to be more value in that outcome than in a UKIP gain in Oldham.
Stand by my feelings that Farage is good thing for the Tories. Hives off the social conservative malcontents in safe seats, detoxifies the brand and gives the right a fighting chance up north.
If it is as bad as this, it could easily be the first all-postal-vote election.
Am waiting for the orange colour scheme cafe nearby the Cod and Egerton crescent to open - best cinnamon rolls in the world.
Someone who is allowed to write threads might consider a counterfactual on that premise re Ed Miliband losing one of labours northern strongholds?
Maybe Donald Brind? He gets a lot of stick but he isn't the worst thread writer on here
I think there was something he used to say about pb.Tories...?
(*I still think UKIP is fobbing us off with version UKIP 1.89....They won't deliver UKIP 2.0 until Farage fecks off though. He still gives the impression of having more interest in hurting the Tories than he does of making UKIP a Westminster electoral force.)