On Star Wars, apparently there's a fan theory that originally Jar Jar Binks was meant to be Palpatine's partner in crime, and a master of Jedi mind control, but the plan got ditched after the character was so hated in The Phantom Menace.
Intriguing idea. Regardless of whether it's true or not, the character was too damned annoying.
Edited extra bit: Mr. F, aye, Sauron was mostly cunning, but that was a substantial oversight.
He defeated Numenor by guile not might, so it's not unreasonable to think he might have a better inkling into the hearts of creatures other than himself.
As an aside, I much prefer The Silmarillion to Lord of the Rings.
Since you're around, how would you price up a Lib Dem v UKIP seats market for 2020.
After re-reading Antifrank's piece I still think the Lib Dems could beat the UKIP on MPs.
That's got to be strong odds on Lib Dems surely. Yeah, they could easily drop to 4 seats. But I struggle to see how UKIP get up to 4 seats unless they manage to 'break through' the 20-25% barrier (in which case they'll win 20+ seats and there are likely to be better ways of betting on that - see SNP seats GE 2015)
That was what I was thinking. But then after a messy referendum we could see some Tory MPs do a Reckless and defect to UKIP which would could bugger that bet up.
The issue with pensioner benefits is the universal award of some things - bus passes, TV licences, winter fuel payments - combined with the way above inflation increases in others.
That's before pension credit gets discussed. That is every bit as bad as tax credits in undermining full time work and contribution.
The sheer scale of Brown's uselessness in just about every sphere of policy continues to beggar belief.
Just how old do you have to be to get a free TV licence?? It's now paid from the licence fee. How desperate do people have to be to attack pensioners in the way they do. Bus passes! I ask you! Jesus wept!
The welfare state isn't there to subsidise the wealthy.
I have had pensioners themselves tell me it is insane that they are given these things when they are already 'comfortable'.
Since you're around, how would you price up a Lib Dem v UKIP seats market for 2020.
After re-reading Antifrank's piece I still think the Lib Dems could beat the UKIP on MPs.
That's got to be strong odds on Lib Dems surely. Yeah, they could easily drop to 4 seats. But I struggle to see how UKIP get up to 4 seats unless they manage to 'break through' the 20-25% barrier (in which case they'll win 20+ seats and there are likely to be better ways of betting on that - see SNP seats GE 2015)
That was what I was thinking. But then after a messy referendum we could see some Tory MPs do a Reckless and defect to UKIP which would could bugger that bet up.
Surely the Tories would have learnt the lesson of Reckless and even semi-detached Carswell.
On Star Wars, apparently there's a fan theory that originally Jar Jar Binks was meant to be Palpatine's partner in crime, and a master of Jedi mind control, but the plan got ditched after the character was so hated in The Phantom Menace.
Intriguing idea. Regardless of whether it's true or not, the character was too damned annoying.
Edited extra bit: Mr. F, aye, Sauron was mostly cunning, but that was a substantial oversight.
He defeated Numenor by guile not might, so it's not unreasonable to think he might have a better inkling into the hearts of creatures other than himself.
As an aside, I much prefer The Silmarillion to Lord of the Rings.
I think it's a pity they killed of Lord Jabba so soon into the third film.
On the other hand, Palpatine could be forgiven for expecting an army of stormtroopers to beat a tribe of sodding Ewoks.
It was a wretched ending to the trilogy.
In reality, Imperial Stormtroopers would spatchcock them.
In all honesty, I liked the ending, even though that point is true and Ewoks are stupid (funny thing, I read the word Ewok is never mentioned in the film, which is interesting if true), but better by far though the original trilogy, even that one, is from the prequels, I think people sometimes forget the originals were full of silly cliches and just plain stupid moments too.
Left-wing protesters blind a horse by shooting a firework into its face, assault a young woman trying to protect it, and (likely) break the arm of a photographer depicting their crimes:
Do Corbyn and McDonnell support or oppose these protests?
As someone whose partner owns, and as I look after horses on a daily basis, this has wound me right up.
My blood is boiling !
Referring to these people as right wing/left wing or anything else is ridiculous, they are criminals, full stop, and should be treated accordingly. If I went out now and shot a rocket at a horse I would be prosecuted, quite rightly.
This is nothing to do with politics.
Their propensity for violence, considering they profess themselves as peacenik antiwarmongering pacifists, is remarkable. Vicious left wing thugs, expect more of it especially if you are a normal labour party member.
Errh, I'm as far from being a labour party member as you could be
Since you're around, how would you price up a Lib Dem v UKIP seats market for 2020.
After re-reading Antifrank's piece I still think the Lib Dems could beat the UKIP on MPs.
That's got to be strong odds on Lib Dems surely. Yeah, they could easily drop to 4 seats. But I struggle to see how UKIP get up to 4 seats unless they manage to 'break through' the 20-25% barrier (in which case they'll win 20+ seats and there are likely to be better ways of betting on that - see SNP seats GE 2015)
Extremely strangely phrased post...
'I still think the Lib Dems could beat the UKIP on MPs'
...would imply that UKIP are generally considered to be favourites in this heat, when I can't imagine anyone thinks they are
Bit like saying 'I still think Chelsea could finish above Bournemouth on points'
On Star Wars, apparently there's a fan theory that originally Jar Jar Binks was meant to be Palpatine's partner in crime, and a master of Jedi mind control, but the plan got ditched after the character was so hated in The Phantom Menace.
Intriguing idea. Regardless of whether it's true or not, the character was too damned annoying.
Edited extra bit: Mr. F, aye, Sauron was mostly cunning, but that was a substantial oversight.
He defeated Numenor by guile not might, so it's not unreasonable to think he might have a better inkling into the hearts of creatures other than himself.
As an aside, I much prefer The Silmarillion to Lord of the Rings.
I think it's a pity they killed of Lord Jabba so soon into the third film.
Seeing him in the Phantom Menace makes his story all the more interesting to me. He and his used to run planets, and the empire comes and he goes into essentially semi retirement, keeping his hand in smuggling and so on? A once might figure making the best of the situation and perhaps just waiting things out - if he wasn't dead, would he have taken over the planet again once the empire fell?
Since you're around, how would you price up a Lib Dem v UKIP seats market for 2020.
After re-reading Antifrank's piece I still think the Lib Dems could beat the UKIP on MPs.
That's got to be strong odds on Lib Dems surely. Yeah, they could easily drop to 4 seats. But I struggle to see how UKIP get up to 4 seats unless they manage to 'break through' the 20-25% barrier (in which case they'll win 20+ seats and there are likely to be better ways of betting on that - see SNP seats GE 2015)
That was what I was thinking. But then after a messy referendum we could see some Tory MPs do a Reckless and defect to UKIP which would could bugger that bet up.
Surely the Tories would have learnt the lesson of Reckless and even semi-detached Carswell.
I'd hope so. But there are some in the Tory party obsessed about the EU, some lose their critical faculties over it.
Left-wing protesters blind a horse by shooting a firework into its face, assault a young woman trying to protect it, and (likely) break the arm of a photographer depicting their crimes:
Do Corbyn and McDonnell support or oppose these protests?
As someone whose partner owns, and as I look after horses on a daily basis, this has wound me right up.
My blood is boiling !
Referring to these people as right wing/left wing or anything else is ridiculous, they are criminals, full stop, and should be treated accordingly. If I went out now and shot a rocket at a horse I would be prosecuted, quite rightly.
This is nothing to do with politics.
Their propensity for violence, considering they profess themselves as peacenik antiwarmongering pacifists, is remarkable. Vicious left wing thugs, expect more of it especially if you are a normal labour party member.
Errh, I'm as far from being a labour party member as you could be
That's a Corbynista, isn't it?
Just kidding, Corbyn fans, I know he won the vote among longer term Labour members too.
Left-wing protesters blind a horse by shooting a firework into its face, assault a young woman trying to protect it, and (likely) break the arm of a photographer depicting their crimes:
Do Corbyn and McDonnell support or oppose these protests?
As someone whose partner owns, and as I look after horses on a daily basis, this has wound me right up.
My blood is boiling !
Referring to these people as right wing/left wing or anything else is ridiculous, they are criminals, full stop, and should be treated accordingly. If I went out now and shot a rocket at a horse I would be prosecuted, quite rightly.
This is nothing to do with politics.
Their propensity for violence, considering they profess themselves as peacenik antiwarmongering pacifists, is remarkable. Vicious left wing thugs, expect more of it especially if you are a normal labour party member.
Errh, I'm as far from being a labour party member as you could be
That's a Corbynista, isn't it?
Just kidding, Corbyn fans, I know he won the vote among longer term Labour members too.
Well, everyone loves Jezza, particularly the Conservatives.
Since you're around, how would you price up a Lib Dem v UKIP seats market for 2020.
After re-reading Antifrank's piece I still think the Lib Dems could beat the UKIP on MPs.
That's got to be strong odds on Lib Dems surely. Yeah, they could easily drop to 4 seats. But I struggle to see how UKIP get up to 4 seats unless they manage to 'break through' the 20-25% barrier (in which case they'll win 20+ seats and there are likely to be better ways of betting on that - see SNP seats GE 2015)
That was what I was thinking. But then after a messy referendum we could see some Tory MPs do a Reckless and defect to UKIP which would could bugger that bet up.
Surely the Tories would have learnt the lesson of Reckless and even semi-detached Carswell.
I'd hope so. But there are some in the Tory party obsessed about the EU, some lose their critical faculties over it.
Since you're around, how would you price up a Lib Dem v UKIP seats market for 2020.
After re-reading Antifrank's piece I still think the Lib Dems could beat the UKIP on MPs.
That's got to be strong odds on Lib Dems surely. Yeah, they could easily drop to 4 seats. But I struggle to see how UKIP get up to 4 seats unless they manage to 'break through' the 20-25% barrier (in which case they'll win 20+ seats and there are likely to be better ways of betting on that - see SNP seats GE 2015)
That was what I was thinking. But then after a messy referendum we could see some Tory MPs do a Reckless and defect to UKIP which would could bugger that bet up.
Surely the Tories would have learnt the lesson of Reckless and even semi-detached Carswell.
I'd hope so. But there are some in the Tory party obsessed about the EU, some lose their critical faculties over it.
Mr. Flightpath, I believe that the reason, or one, why Assad hasn't buggered off to exile with a load of money is the international community's desire, understandably, to put on trial dictators rather than let them get off.
The problem is that this has removed a back door escape route so they instead do everything they can to cling on, however bad things get, because their choices are staying in power or imprisonment/death.
What the... Egyptian authorities are apparently refusing permission to enter to British rescue flights bound for Sharm today. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-34743388
The Egyptians are doing their best to lose nearly a million British tourist visitors a year.
Good luck to them as travellers go elsewhere in future. Who will pick up the slack? Probably not the Russians.
Jordan, Oman and UAE will be happy.
The Russians have been going to Egypt recently as it was cheaper than Dubai after the Rouble collapsed.
Brits sure as hell won't be going near Egypt for a while!
Interestingly enough it gives us, and should give the locals, an insight into what life in an ISIS led Islamic state would be like. Isolated and dirt poor. These countries are of course the cradle of civilisation and should really be advanced wealthy and free. What is it about people like Assad that they cannot simply say 'we've had a good run, have loads of dosh stashed away, we can just go into cosy exile and leave everybody to it' ??
The International Court of Justice.
It used to work very well - the deal was they would get $100m and a place to live in Central America or South East Asia and everyone would ignore them.
Now people want to imprison them for life for war crimes it gives them no incentive to surrender or flee.
Who would have thought that getting lawyers involved would make things worse?
Since you're around, how would you price up a Lib Dem v UKIP seats market for 2020.
After re-reading Antifrank's piece I still think the Lib Dems could beat the UKIP on MPs.
That's got to be strong odds on Lib Dems surely. Yeah, they could easily drop to 4 seats. But I struggle to see how UKIP get up to 4 seats unless they manage to 'break through' the 20-25% barrier (in which case they'll win 20+ seats and there are likely to be better ways of betting on that - see SNP seats GE 2015)
That was what I was thinking. But then after a messy referendum we could see some Tory MPs do a Reckless and defect to UKIP which would could bugger that bet up.
Surely the Tories would have learnt the lesson of Reckless and even semi-detached Carswell.
I'd hope so. But there are some in the Tory party obsessed about the EU, some lose their critical faculties over it.
Since you're around, how would you price up a Lib Dem v UKIP seats market for 2020.
After re-reading Antifrank's piece I still think the Lib Dems could beat the UKIP on MPs.
That's got to be strong odds on Lib Dems surely. Yeah, they could easily drop to 4 seats. But I struggle to see how UKIP get up to 4 seats unless they manage to 'break through' the 20-25% barrier (in which case they'll win 20+ seats and there are likely to be better ways of betting on that - see SNP seats GE 2015)
That was what I was thinking. But then after a messy referendum we could see some Tory MPs do a Reckless and defect to UKIP which would could bugger that bet up.
Surely the Tories would have learnt the lesson of Reckless and even semi-detached Carswell.
I'd hope so. But there are some in the Tory party obsessed about the EU, some lose their critical faculties over it.
Quite, anybody who doesn't obediently toe the line must be mad.
Since you're around, how would you price up a Lib Dem v UKIP seats market for 2020.
After re-reading Antifrank's piece I still think the Lib Dems could beat the UKIP on MPs.
That's got to be strong odds on Lib Dems surely. Yeah, they could easily drop to 4 seats. But I struggle to see how UKIP get up to 4 seats unless they manage to 'break through' the 20-25% barrier (in which case they'll win 20+ seats and there are likely to be better ways of betting on that - see SNP seats GE 2015)
That was what I was thinking. But then after a messy referendum we could see some Tory MPs do a Reckless and defect to UKIP which would could bugger that bet up.
Surely the Tories would have learnt the lesson of Reckless and even semi-detached Carswell.
I'd hope so. But there are some in the Tory party obsessed about the EU, some lose their critical faculties over it.
Yes, but that's not confined to Leavers.
I know.
I do wonder how things would have turned out if Sir Geoffrey Howe had toppled Lady Thatcher over the poll tax instead of the EC.
Perhaps the fault line in the party over the EU might not have been so bad.
Oh the joys - a seat I know something about and ScotP et al clearly know absolutely nothing about. The reason I know is that this is where my Aberdeenshire relatives come from.
Top of the poll last time was an independent but really a Tory who is still in place and was part of the previous Tory/Independent coalition who ran the council.
The other successful candidates were the SNP and the Liberals. The SNP lady was Joanna Strathdee who sadly passed away but was one of the most popular councillors in the whole of Aberdeenshire and former parliamentary candidate. The Liberal was OK and retires from ill health hence the double poll.
The Tories chose a lady not previously known as a Tory but in many organisations. The SNP chose a young single Mum who is well thought of locally and works (I think) for the local MSP. Both selections are to their parties credit. Labour intervened for the first time.
In that light for the SNP lady to increase the share of the vote is a very very good result. The Tories will be pleased to top the poll but their vote increase is a direct result of having no independent in this the most Tory inclined ward in the constituency.
Both parties will be happy to secure the seat and for the Liberals to lose badly in what used to be their Parliamentary seat. I am very upset that the result does not fulfil the wet dreams of Scot P but there we are - facts are chiels that winna ding!
What the... Egyptian authorities are apparently refusing permission to enter to British rescue flights bound for Sharm today. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-34743388
The Egyptians are doing their best to lose nearly a million British tourist visitors a year.
Good luck to them as travellers go elsewhere in future. Who will pick up the slack? Probably not the Russians.
Jordan, Oman and UAE will be happy.
The Russians have been going to Egypt recently as it was cheaper than Dubai after the Rouble collapsed.
Brits sure as hell won't be going near Egypt for a while!
Interestingly enough it gives us, and should give the locals, an insight into what life in an ISIS led Islamic state would be like. Isolated and dirt poor. These countries are of course the cradle of civilisation and should really be advanced wealthy and free. What is it about people like Assad that they cannot simply say 'we've had a good run, have loads of dosh stashed away, we can just go into cosy exile and leave everybody to it' ??
The International Court of Justice.
It used to work very well - the deal was they would get $100m and a place to live in Central America or South East Asia and everyone would ignore them.
Now people want to imprison them for life for war crimes it gives them no incentive to surrender or flee.
A great example of the law of unintended consequences. Assad will have to go down either like Gadaffi or like Saddam Hussein, now that the third option isn't really there any more. Neither option would be particularly attractive to him right now, even with ISIS slowly taking over his country.
You know when Andrew Neil puts his glasses on during an interview that sh*t's about to go down.
One of those from the protests last night from a group called Class War or something similar. Seemed to struggle to make a point with a lot of shouting, violent friends and a mask on.
What the... Egyptian authorities are apparently refusing permission to enter to British rescue flights bound for Sharm today. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-34743388
The Egyptians are doing their best to lose nearly a million British tourist visitors a year.
Good luck to them as travellers go elsewhere in future. Who will pick up the slack? Probably not the Russians.
Jordan, Oman and UAE will be happy.
The Russians have been going to Egypt recently as it was cheaper than Dubai after the Rouble collapsed.
Brits sure as hell won't be going near Egypt for a while!
Interestingly enough it gives us, and should give the locals, an insight into what life in an ISIS led Islamic state would be like. Isolated and dirt poor. These countries are of course the cradle of civilisation and should really be advanced wealthy and free. What is it about people like Assad that they cannot simply say 'we've had a good run, have loads of dosh stashed away, we can just go into cosy exile and leave everybody to it' ??
The International Court of Justice.
It used to work very well - the deal was they would get $100m and a place to live in Central America or South East Asia and everyone would ignore them.
Now people want to imprison them for life for war crimes it gives them no incentive to surrender or flee.
A great example of the law of unintended consequences. Assad will have to go down either like Gadaffi or like Saddam Hussein, now that the third option isn't really there any more. Neither option would be particularly attractive to him right now, even with ISIS slowly taking over his country.
Gaddaffi or Saddam did not have Russian jets behind them
Oh the joys - a seat I know something about and ScotP et al clearly know absolutely nothing about. The reason I know is that this is where my Aberdeenshire relatives come from.
Top of the poll last time was an independent but really a Tory who is still in place and was part of the previous Tory/Independent coalition who ran the council.
The other successful candidates were the SNP and the Liberals. The SNP lady was Joanna Strathdee who sadly passed away but was one of the most popular councillors in the whole of Aberdeenshire and former parliamentary candidate. The Liberal was OK and retires from ill health hence the double poll.
The Tories chose a lady not previously known as a Tory but in many organisations. The SNP chose a young single Mum who is well thought of locally and works (I think) for the local MSP. Both selections are to their parties credit. Labour intervened for the first time.
In that light for the SNP lady to increase the share of the vote is a very very good result. The Tories will be pleased to top the poll but their vote increase is a direct result of having no independent in this the most Tory inclined ward in the constituency.
Both parties will be happy to secure the seat and for the Liberals to lose badly in what used to be their Parliamentary seat. I am very upset that the result does not fulfil the wet dreams of Scot P but there we are - facts are chiels that winna ding!
Seemed obvious from the change in vote share that this was spinners delight more than anything else
That, along with noting the people who celebrated it, were dead giveaways to even those unaware of the scottish political weather
Since you're around, how would you price up a Lib Dem v UKIP seats market for 2020.
After re-reading Antifrank's piece I still think the Lib Dems could beat the UKIP on MPs.
That's got to be strong odds on Lib Dems surely. Yeah, they could easily drop to 4 seats. But I struggle to see how UKIP get up to 4 seats unless they manage to 'break through' the 20-25% barrier (in which case they'll win 20+ seats and there are likely to be better ways of betting on that - see SNP seats GE 2015)
That was what I was thinking. But then after a messy referendum we could see some Tory MPs do a Reckless and defect to UKIP which would could bugger that bet up.
Surely the Tories would have learnt the lesson of Reckless and even semi-detached Carswell.
I'd hope so. But there are some in the Tory party obsessed about the EU, some lose their critical faculties over it.
Yes, but that's not confined to Leavers.
I know.
I do wonder how things would have turned out if Sir Geoffrey Howe had toppled Lady Thatcher over the poll tax instead of the EC.
Perhaps the fault line in the party over the EU might not have been so bad.
I'm not so sure: the issue comes down to how you view sovereignty. And that fault line has been continuously exacerbated by ever closer union.
It is possible that either a wet Tory government (assuming it won with Howe/Heseltine in 1992) or a Kinnnock led Labour government might not have done so well with the Maastrict opt-outs, or might not have tried.
That could have led us to joining the euro - potentially without a referendum, but just a 1997GE win - assuming the 1992 ERM debacle was successfully navigated.
But such things can be exaggerated. Sweden IIRC doesn't have one and, in theory, is obliged to join the euro but still hasn't.
Okay, just listened to it. A good discussion on a number of issues in Scottish politics at the moment.
As an outsider I still don't get how the SNP will manage to get away with not defending their record in Scotland running up to next year's election. The Scottish government runs policing, education and health, these should be the issues discussed when electing the politicians to the Scottish government rather than constitutional stuff.
On the point made in towards the end of the podcast, I really hope that the debate around the EU referendum is of better quality than what we got in Scotland last year - although from last week's discussions on here I'm not too sure!
The point is they are more popular than ever and seen to be doing a good job against the evil empire. It will be a Tsunami in 2016 with the London parties scrambling for consolation list seats. Hence Davidson fleeing Glasgow and chucking one of her minions out in Edinburgh list. Labour will follow suit.
Counting chickens a little Mr G on the day the Tories beat the SNP in an Aberdeen by election
Indeed, Mr. Eagles, but the morality of some people warrants such language.
Mr. Gravitation, the upper echelons of Labour are currently inhabited by mentally subnormal juvenile delinquents. It's sad to see. We need a proper opposition to keep the government from complacency and arrogance.
Since you're around, how would you price up a Lib Dem v UKIP seats market for 2020.
After re-reading Antifrank's piece I still think the Lib Dems could beat the UKIP on MPs.
That's got to be strong odds on Lib Dems surely. Yeah, they could easily drop to 4 seats. But I struggle to see how UKIP get up to 4 seats unless they manage to 'break through' the 20-25% barrier (in which case they'll win 20+ seats and there are likely to be better ways of betting on that - see SNP seats GE 2015)
That was what I was thinking. But then after a messy referendum we could see some Tory MPs do a Reckless and defect to UKIP which would could bugger that bet up.
Surely the Tories would have learnt the lesson of Reckless and even semi-detached Carswell.
I'd hope so. But there are some in the Tory party obsessed about the EU, some lose their critical faculties over it.
Yes, but that's not confined to Leavers.
I know.
I do wonder how things would have turned out if Sir Geoffrey Howe had toppled Lady Thatcher over the poll tax instead of the EC.
Perhaps the fault line in the party over the EU might not have been so bad.
I'm not so sure: the issue comes down to how you view sovereignty. And that fault line has been continuously exacerbated by ever closer union.
It is possible that either a wet Tory government (assuming it won with Howe/Heseltine in 1992) or a Kinnnock led Labour government might not have done so well with the Maastrict opt-outs, or might not have tried.
That could have led us to joining the euro - potentially without a referendum, but just a 1997GE win - assuming the 1992 ERM debacle was successfully navigated.
But such things can be exaggerated. Sweden IIRC doesn't have one and, in theory, is obliged to join the euro but still hasn't.
Let us assume we vote to Leave. I wonder what the new fault line in the Tory party will be.
That's got to be strong odds on Lib Dems surely. Yeah, they could easily drop to 4 seats. But I struggle to see how UKIP get up to 4 seats unless they manage to 'break through' the 20-25% barrier (in which case they'll win 20+ seats and there are likely to be better ways of betting on that - see SNP seats GE 2015)
That was what I was thinking. But then after a messy referendum we could see some Tory MPs do a Reckless and defect to UKIP which would could bugger that bet up.
Surely the Tories would have learnt the lesson of Reckless and even semi-detached Carswell.
I'd hope so. But there are some in the Tory party obsessed about the EU, some lose their critical faculties over it.
Yes, but that's not confined to Leavers.
I know.
I do wonder how things would have turned out if Sir Geoffrey Howe had toppled Lady Thatcher over the poll tax instead of the EC.
Perhaps the fault line in the party over the EU might not have been so bad.
The fault line was there ever since Bruges, though of course Howe added grievously to it.
It would have been tactically far harder for him to have brought down Thatcher over the Poll Tax. Howe's coup was successful because chance enabled him to align a current issue with the timing of the Conservative leadership election which forced Heseltine's hand. Had the election not been in the offing, his resignation would have been a re-run of Lawson's: damaging but not fatal. Likewise, without the topicality of the EC issue, it would have looked more premeditated and less principled.
And a resignation over the Poll Tax couldn't be principled for a minister who'd been in the cabinet throughout its introduction (even if, as Foreign Secretary, he bore no personal responsibility beyond the general collective). There would undoubtedly be quotes of him defending the tax which could be played back. The best he could say would be 'we tried it, it doesn't work, it needs repealing' - but that's not an argument to stir the soul.
What might have saved the Tories over the EC/EU is that Maastricht would have been delayed until after 1992 had Thatcher not been toppled, meaning a rather different British deal and one that the Conservatives could have opposed with a much more united front. Essentially, the party would have become Eurosceptic much more quickly.
I am writing an Alternate Timeline of a UK where Britain joins the Euro; the point of departure being that Thatcher doesn't give the Bruges speech.
Oh the joys - a seat I know something about and ScotP et al clearly know absolutely nothing about. The reason I know is that this is where my Aberdeenshire relatives come from.
Top of the poll last time was an independent but really a Tory who is still in place and was part of the previous Tory/Independent coalition who ran the council.
The other successful candidates were the SNP and the Liberals. The SNP lady was Joanna Strathdee who sadly passed away but was one of the most popular councillors in the whole of Aberdeenshire and former parliamentary candidate. The Liberal was OK and retires from ill health hence the double poll.
The Tories chose a lady not previously known as a Tory but in many organisations. The SNP chose a young single Mum who is well thought of locally and works (I think) for the local MSP. Both selections are to their parties credit. Labour intervened for the first time.
In that light for the SNP lady to increase the share of the vote is a very very good result. The Tories will be pleased to top the poll but their vote increase is a direct result of having no independent in this the most Tory inclined ward in the constituency.
Both parties will be happy to secure the seat and for the Liberals to lose badly in what used to be their Parliamentary seat. I am very upset that the result does not fulfil the wet dreams of Scot P but there we are - facts are chiels that winna ding!
Good local knowledge, gives context to the result. Thanks
Indeed, Mr. Eagles, but the morality of some people warrants such language.
Mr. Gravitation, the upper echelons of Labour are currently inhabited by mentally subnormal juvenile delinquents. It's sad to see. We need a proper opposition to keep the government from complacency and arrogance.
I should have made it clear that Moira Ingleby who topped the poll last time and is the incumbent councillor in the three person ward stood as a Tory not an independent last time. The independent/Tory last time got 14 per cent but did not stand this time. Otherwise the post and analysis stands.
I am writing an Alternate Timeline of a UK where Britain joins the Euro; the point of departure being that Thatcher doesn't give the Bruges speech.
Interesting.
I've long thought that the fact that we didn't join the Euro was based largely on luck, and in particular on the fact that it so happened that we joined ERM at a time when the exchange rate happened to be unsustainable. That didn't seem like good luck at the time, but in retrospect I think it's the single biggest reason why we didn't join the Euro.
That's got to be strong odds on Lib Dems surely. Yeah, they could easily drop to 4 seats. But I struggle to see how UKIP get up to 4 seats unless they manage to 'break through' the 20-25% barrier (in which case they'll win 20+ seats and there are likely to be better ways of betting on that - see SNP seats GE 2015)
That was what I was thinking. But then after a messy referendum we could see some Tory MPs do a Reckless and defect to UKIP which would could bugger that bet up.
Surely the Tories would have learnt the lesson of Reckless and even semi-detached Carswell.
I'd hope so. But there are some in the Tory party obsessed about the EU, some lose their critical faculties over it.
Yes, but that's not confined to Leavers.
I know.
I do wonder how things would have turned out if Sir Geoffrey Howe had toppled Lady Thatcher over the poll tax instead of the EC.
Perhaps the fault line in the party over the EU might not have been so bad.
The fault line was there ever since Bruges, though of course Howe added grievously to it.
It would have been tactically far harder for him to have brought down Thatcher over the Poll Tax. Howe's coup was successful because chance enabled him to align a current issue with the timing of the Conservative leadership election which forced Heseltine's hand. Had the election not been in the offing, his resignation would have been a re-run of Lawson's: damaging but not fatal. Likewise, without the topicality of the EC issue, it would have looked more premeditated and less principled.
And a resignation over the Poll Tax couldn't be principled for a minister who'd been in the cabinet throughout its introduction (even if, as Foreign Secretary, he bore no personal responsibility beyond the general collective). There would undoubtedly be quotes of him defending the tax which could be played back. The best he could say would be 'we tried it, it doesn't work, it needs repealing' - but that's not an argument to stir the soul.
What might have saved the Tories over the EC/EU is that Maastricht would have been delayed until after 1992 had Thatcher not been toppled, meaning a rather different British deal and one that the Conservatives could have opposed with a much more united front. Essentially, the party would have become Eurosceptic much more quickly.
I am writing an Alternate Timeline of a UK where Britain joins the Euro; the point of departure being that Thatcher doesn't give the Bruges speech.
What the... Egyptian authorities are apparently refusing permission to enter to British rescue flights bound for Sharm today. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-34743388
The Egyptians are doing their best to lose nearly a million British tourist visitors a year.
Good luck to them as travellers go elsewhere in future. Who will pick up the slack? Probably not the Russians.
Jordan, Oman and UAE will be happy.
The Russians have been going to Egypt recently as it was cheaper than Dubai after the Rouble collapsed.
Brits sure as hell won't be going near Egypt for a while!
Interestingly enough it gives us, and should give the locals, an insight into what life in an ISIS led Islamic state would be like. Isolated and dirt poor. These countries are of course the cradle of civilisation and should really be advanced wealthy and free. What is it about people like Assad that they cannot simply say 'we've had a good run, have loads of dosh stashed away, we can just go into cosy exile and leave everybody to it' ??
The International Court of Justice.
It used to work very well - the deal was they would get $100m and a place to live in Central America or South East Asia and everyone would ignore them.
Now people want to imprison them for life for war crimes it gives them no incentive to surrender or flee.
A great example of the law of unintended consequences. Assad will have to go down either like Gadaffi or like Saddam Hussein, now that the third option isn't really there any more. Neither option would be particularly attractive to him right now, even with ISIS slowly taking over his country.
I expect that Putin could still find him a spare dacha but that doesn't guarantee his future as I'm quite sure he'd be aware that he'd be little more than a card for Putin (or Medvedev or whoeever) to play in his dealing with the West at some point in the future.
Amazing lack of comment about Corbyn reading a question from the BNPs Northern Ireland rep at PMQs
I saw the very early comments on buzzfeed on that story, all pro-Corbyn, and one in particular I thought amusing as it was something like 'So what, the person is still a voter who deserves to be represented and their views listened to even if they belonged to such an organisation, good for Corbyn', a view I have no doubt would be extended to a Tory who quoted a BNP figure.
Oh the joys - a seat I know something about and ScotP et al clearly know absolutely nothing about. The reason I know is that this is where my Aberdeenshire relatives come from.
Top of the poll last time was an independent but really a Tory who is still in place and was part of the previous Tory/Independent coalition who ran the council.
The other successful candidates were the SNP and the Liberals. The SNP lady was Joanna Strathdee who sadly passed away but was one of the most popular councillors in the whole of Aberdeenshire and former parliamentary candidate. The Liberal was OK and retires from ill health hence the double poll.
The Tories chose a lady not previously known as a Tory but in many organisations. The SNP chose a young single Mum who is well thought of locally and works (I think) for the local MSP. Both selections are to their parties credit. Labour intervened for the first time.
In that light for the SNP lady to increase the share of the vote is a very very good result. The Tories will be pleased to top the poll but their vote increase is a direct result of having no independent in this the most Tory inclined ward in the constituency.
Both parties will be happy to secure the seat and for the Liberals to lose badly in what used to be their Parliamentary seat. I am very upset that the result does not fulfil the wet dreams of Scot P but there we are - facts are chiels that winna ding!
Seemed obvious from the change in vote share that this was spinners delight more than anything else
That, along with noting the people who celebrated it, were dead giveaways to even those unaware of the scottish political weather
It fits with the polls though where the biggest gainers in Scotland since May have been the Tories
Indeed, Mr. Eagles, but the morality of some people warrants such language.
Mr. Gravitation, the upper echelons of Labour are currently inhabited by mentally subnormal juvenile delinquents. It's sad to see. We need a proper opposition to keep the government from complacency and arrogance.
Anyway, I must be off for a while.
The frightening thing is that they're not mentally subnormal. They are, however, emotionally subnormal. One wonders what the ghosts of Attlee and Bevin make of it.
What the... Egyptian authorities are apparently refusing permission to enter to British rescue flights bound for Sharm today. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-34743388
The Egyptians are doing their best to lose nearly a million British tourist visitors a year.
Good luck to them as travellers go elsewhere in future. Who will pick up the slack? Probably not the Russians.
Jordan, Oman and UAE will be happy.
The Russians have been going to Egypt recently as it was cheaper than Dubai after the Rouble collapsed.
Brits sure as hell won't be going near Egypt for a while!
Interestingly enough it gives us, and should give the locals, an insight into what life in an ISIS led Islamic state would be like. Isolated and dirt poor. These countries are of course the cradle of civilisation and should really be advanced wealthy and free. What is it about people like Assad that they cannot simply say 'we've had a good run, have loads of dosh stashed away, we can just go into cosy exile and leave everybody to it' ??
The International Court of Justice.
It used to work very well - the deal was they would get $100m and a place to live in Central America or South East Asia and everyone would ignore them.
Now people want to imprison them for life for war crimes it gives them no incentive to surrender or flee.
A great example of the law of unintended consequences. Assad will have to go down either like Gadaffi or like Saddam Hussein, now that the third option isn't really there any more. Neither option would be particularly attractive to him right now, even with ISIS slowly taking over his country.
I expect that Putin could still find him a spare dacha but that doesn't guarantee his future as I'm quite sure he'd be aware that he'd be little more than a card for Putin (or Medvedev or whoeever) to play in his dealing with the West at some point in the future.
Yes, one imagines that Mr Putin would be rather good at chess given that he seems to play out his life as president like it's one big game.
Amazing lack of comment about Corbyn reading a question from the BNPs Northern Ireland rep at PMQs
I saw the very early comments on buzzfeed on that story, all pro-Corbyn, and one in particular I thought amusing as it was something like 'So what, the person is still a voter who deserves to be represented and their views listened to even if they belonged to such an organisation, good for Corbyn', a view I have no doubt would be extended to a Tory who quoted a BNP figure.
More radical Labour types seem utterly convinced that IDS is strongly linked to the far-right himself (though personally I think their evidence is pretty scanty, if you're relying on arguments like "If you can tell the nature of a politician by his supporters, Duncan Smith is a very extreme politician indeed" you're clearly on weak ground - it's whom the politician supports, not who supports the politician, that matters in my book - and goodness knows what you could achieve by turning the argument on Corbyn...)
Funny how the Edgar Griffiths micro-scandal had so little effect at the time - didn't turn the leadership election in Ken Clarke's favour, nor did it particularly overshadow IDS's spell as leader. Yet by the power of blogging and social media, a solid attempt is being made to turn it into a life-defining incident.
If the Tories do that, it will destroy the party. .
I don't think there would be any choice. I've looked long and hard at this, and I cannot see any realistic scenario in which we don't.
I know that's not what you and lots of other people want to hear, but I think that it is the reality.
Utter nonsense. There is absolutely a choice.
You persist in saying there is 'no choice' but to sign up to full freedom of movement without providing any convincing evidence of this, other than your own opinion.
There are a plethora of other bodies who disagree - not least of which is Open Europe - who believe this can be negotiated in a bilateral deal. It may only effect the 'type' of deal we get.
If you wish to push this line, you might be better off arguing there may be consequences in terms of how liberal the access is that we end up negotiating to the single market, with a consequent economic effect if we choose to persist with this line, but that's not a given either and to argue that we simply have no choice is not true.
Even Norway through the EEA has an emergency brake clause - and, no, I'm not arguing for the EEA.
I am writing an Alternate Timeline of a UK where Britain joins the Euro; the point of departure being that Thatcher doesn't give the Bruges speech.
Interesting.
I've long thought that the fact that we didn't join the Euro was based largely on luck, and in particular on the fact that it so happened that we joined ERM at a time when the exchange rate happened to be unsustainable. That didn't seem like good luck at the time, but in retrospect I think it's the single biggest reason why we didn't join the Euro.
Have you ever been a supporter of UK membership of the Euro, Richard? Either now or in the distant past?
I am writing an Alternate Timeline of a UK where Britain joins the Euro; the point of departure being that Thatcher doesn't give the Bruges speech.
Interesting.
I've long thought that the fact that we didn't join the Euro was based largely on luck, and in particular on the fact that it so happened that we joined ERM at a time when the exchange rate happened to be unsustainable. That didn't seem like good luck at the time, but in retrospect I think it's the single biggest reason why we didn't join the Euro.
I agree that it was in no small part good luck but I'd put the cause elsewhere. After all, Italy was booted out of the ERM just before the UK and still ended up in the Euro.
In my view, the primary reason we didn't join was that John Major was prime minister and had the foresight to have the FO prepare a clause for insertion into the treaty that gave Britain the opt-out, which enabled the UK to sign the treaty but for the rest (bar Denmark) to go ahead. Thatcher wouldn't have signed at all but that would in all probability simply have delayed the treaty. I don't think that Kinnock would have got (or even gone for) the opt-out at all.
Fotherington-Thomas on DP, utterly wet and a weed.
Sam Macrory @sammacrory "It would've been a revolution probably but I think the weather put everyone off to be honest" - a damp Million Mask marcher explains #bbcdp
Fotherington-Thomas on DP, utterly wet and a weed.
Sam Macrory @sammacrory "It would've been a revolution probably but I think the weather put everyone off to be honest" - a damp Million Mask marcher explains #bbcdp
Well yes, in logic there's a choice in the sense that we could choose not to do a deal with the EU which includes freedom of movement. The question is, at what cost, and how would we attain it? In particular, how would we get the necessary unanimous consent from all 27 other EU countries, given our other objectives? It really doesn't look practical to me - the Policy Network document we were looking at yesterday looks very solid on this point (yes, yes, I know, written by rabid Europhiles and all that - but that doesn't alter the fact that their analysis of the mechanics and the pan-European politics is hard to disagree with).
If we do vote to leave the EU, I'll be offering bets on this. I hope to make good money from it!
Have you ever been a supporter of UK membership of the Euro, Richard? Either now or in the distant past?
Certainly not now! In the distant past I was unsure, although I expected that we would join, especially when Blair became PM. It's hard to underestimate the strength of the conventional wisdom at the time: in business, amongst economists, in the City, and amongst politicians of all parties, with a few exceptions. It seems odd now, but that's how it was.
Have you ever been a supporter of UK membership of the Euro, Richard? Either now or in the distant past?
Certainly not now! In the distant past I was unsure, although I expected that we would join, especially when Blair became PM. It's hard to underestimate the strength of the conventional wisdom at the time: in business, amongst economists, in the City, and amongst politicians of all parties, with a few exceptions. It seems odd now, but that's how it was.
Had Clarke been elected Tory leader in 1997 or 2001 we may have joined
Well yes, in logic there's a choice in the sense that we could choose not to do a deal with the EU which includes freedom of movement. The question is, at what cost, and how would we attain it? In particular, how would we get the necessary unanimous consent from all 27 other EU countries, given our other objectives? It really doesn't look practical to me - the Policy Network document we were looking at yesterday looks very solid on this point (yes, yes, I know, written by rabid Europhiles and all that - but that doesn't alter the fact that their analysis of the mechanics and the pan-European politics is hard to disagree with).
If we do vote to leave the EU, I'll be offering bets on this. I hope to make good money from it!
But there's freedom of movement and freedom of movement.
It's one thing to be allowed to come here for work, quite another to come here with your wife and four kids to work part time subsidised by tax credits and housing benefit. Sort that issue out and most people will be in favour of free movement.
What the... Egyptian authorities are apparently refusing permission to enter to British rescue flights bound for Sharm today. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-34743388
The Egyptians are doing their best to lose nearly a million British tourist visitors a year.
Good luck to them as travellers go elsewhere in future. Who will pick up the slack? Probably not the Russians.
Jordan, Oman and UAE will be happy.
The Russians have been going to Egypt recently as it was cheaper than Dubai after the Rouble collapsed.
Brits sure as hell won't be going near Egypt for a while!
Interestingly enough it gives us, and should give the locals, an insight into what life in an ISIS led Islamic state would be like. Isolated and dirt poor. These countries are of course the cradle of civilisation and should really be advanced wealthy and free. What is it about people like Assad that they cannot simply say 'we've had a good run, have loads of dosh stashed away, we can just go into cosy exile and leave everybody to it' ??
The International Court of Justice.
It used to work very well - the deal was they would get $100m and a place to live in Central America or South East Asia and everyone would ignore them.
Now people want to imprison them for life for war crimes it gives them no incentive to surrender or flee.
A great example of the law of unintended consequences. Assad will have to go down either like Gadaffi or like Saddam Hussein, now that the third option isn't really there any more. Neither option would be particularly attractive to him right now, even with ISIS slowly taking over his country.
I am perfectly happy to let the Syrians decide their own future and that of Assad, seems like they don't want to suffer the same fate as the Libyans given the gains the SAA have made since Russian intervention.
I am writing an Alternate Timeline of a UK where Britain joins the Euro; the point of departure being that Thatcher doesn't give the Bruges speech.
Interesting.
I've long thought that the fact that we didn't join the Euro was based largely on luck, and in particular on the fact that it so happened that we joined ERM at a time when the exchange rate happened to be unsustainable. That didn't seem like good luck at the time, but in retrospect I think it's the single biggest reason why we didn't join the Euro.
Have you ever been a supporter of UK membership of the Euro, Richard? Either now or in the distant past?
I've always supported and still do support a single European currency, so long as that currency was sterling.
I've always thought a single European language would do more good for the EU than a single currency ever could.
Obviously the lingua franca of the EU should be English
But there's freedom of movement and freedom of movement. It's one thing to be allowed to come here for work, quite another to come here with your wife and four kids to work part time subsidised by tax credits and housing benefit. Sort that issue out and most people will be in favour of free movement.
I think there will certainly be a deal on that (in fact, it's not even obvious that we need a formal deal to tighten up on that aspect). At the margin, that will help a bit, but the UK will still be an attractive place to come and work, or look for work, both of which are rights under the freedom of movement principle, so I don't think in numeric terms changes to the welfare system will have a big effect.
Having said that, I expect Cameron will claim this as a big victory. It is also true, as you say, that it is partly the welfare aspect which riles people, so in a sense he'll be right to do so.
Incidentally, our local Conservative branch is having a policy discussion next week on Refugees, Asylum and Immigration. I've been given the hot potato of preparing the briefing paper and chairing the discussion. I hope to get out alive, but if I suddenly stop posting you'll know why!
I am writing an Alternate Timeline of a UK where Britain joins the Euro; the point of departure being that Thatcher doesn't give the Bruges speech.
Interesting.
I've long thought that the fact that we didn't join the Euro was based largely on luck, and in particular on the fact that it so happened that we joined ERM at a time when the exchange rate happened to be unsustainable. That didn't seem like good luck at the time, but in retrospect I think it's the single biggest reason why we didn't join the Euro.
Have you ever been a supporter of UK membership of the Euro, Richard? Either now or in the distant past?
I've always supported and still do support a single European currency, so long as that currency was sterling.
I've always thought a single European language would do more good for the EU than a single currency ever could.
Obviously the lingua franca of the EU should be English
If the Tories do that, it will destroy the party. .
I don't think there would be any choice. I've looked long and hard at this, and I cannot see any realistic scenario in which we don't.
I know that's not what you and lots of other people want to hear, but I think that it is the reality.
Utter nonsense. There is absolutely a choice.
You persist in saying there is 'no choice' but to sign up to full freedom of movement without providing any convincing evidence of this, other than your own opinion.
There are a plethora of other bodies who disagree - not least of which is Open Europe - who believe this can be negotiated in a bilateral deal. It may only effect the 'type' of deal we get.
If you wish to push this line, you might be better off arguing there may be consequences in terms of how liberal the access is that we end up negotiating to the single market, with a consequent economic effect if we choose to persist with this line, but that's not a given either and to argue that we simply have no choice is not true.
Even Norway through the EEA has an emergency brake clause - and, no, I'm not arguing for the EEA.
Sooner or later, some EU countries will be electing governments that are rather less keen on freedom of movement than hitherto.
What the... Egyptian authorities are apparently refusing permission to enter to British rescue flights bound for Sharm today. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-34743388
The Egyptians are doing their best to lose nearly a million British tourist visitors a year.
Good luck to them as travellers go elsewhere in future. Who will pick up the slack? Probably not the Russians.
Jordan, Oman and UAE will be happy.
The Russians have been going to Egypt recently as it was cheaper than Dubai after the Rouble collapsed.
Brits sure as hell won't be going near Egypt for a while!
Interestingly enough it gives us, and should give the locals, an insight into what life in an ISIS led Islamic state would be like. Isolated and dirt poor. These countries are of course the cradle of civilisation and should really be advanced wealthy and free. What is it about people like Assad that they cannot simply say 'we've had a good run, have loads of dosh stashed away, we can just go into cosy exile and leave everybody to it' ??
The International Court of Justice.
It used to work very well - the deal was they would get $100m and a place to live in Central America or South East Asia and everyone would ignore them.
Now people want to imprison them for life for war crimes it gives them no incentive to surrender or flee.
A great example of the law of unintended consequences. Assad will have to go down either like Gadaffi or like Saddam Hussein, now that the third option isn't really there any more. Neither option would be particularly attractive to him right now, even with ISIS slowly taking over his country.
I expect that Putin could still find him a spare dacha but that doesn't guarantee his future as I'm quite sure he'd be aware that he'd be little more than a card for Putin (or Medvedev or whoeever) to play in his dealing with the West at some point in the future.
Yes, one imagines that Mr Putin would be rather good at chess given that he seems to play out his life as president like it's one big game.
I feel like if things weren't going well for him in a game of chess he'd flip over the board and have you shot, declaring how he'd outsmarted you in the game by doing so.
I am writing an Alternate Timeline of a UK where Britain joins the Euro; the point of departure being that Thatcher doesn't give the Bruges speech.
Interesting.
I've long thought that the fact that we didn't join the Euro was based largely on luck, and in particular on the fact that it so happened that we joined ERM at a time when the exchange rate happened to be unsustainable. That didn't seem like good luck at the time, but in retrospect I think it's the single biggest reason why we didn't join the Euro.
Have you ever been a supporter of UK membership of the Euro, Richard? Either now or in the distant past?
I've always supported and still do support a single European currency, so long as that currency was sterling.
I've always thought a single European language would do more good for the EU than a single currency ever could.
Obviously the lingua franca of the EU should be English
Obviously. Fog in Channel, Europe Isolated.
The Germans speak wonderful English, America speaks English (after a fashion), multi national Indian and Chinese businesses conduct their business in English.
The evidence for English as the single language of Europe is overwhelming, and I say that as someone who is very multi lingual
I am writing an Alternate Timeline of a UK where Britain joins the Euro; the point of departure being that Thatcher doesn't give the Bruges speech.
Interesting.
I've long thought that the fact that we didn't join the Euro was based largely on luck, and in particular on the fact that it so happened that we joined ERM at a time when the exchange rate happened to be unsustainable. That didn't seem like good luck at the time, but in retrospect I think it's the single biggest reason why we didn't join the Euro.
Have you ever been a supporter of UK membership of the Euro, Richard? Either now or in the distant past?
I've always supported and still do support a single European currency, so long as that currency was sterling.
I've always thought a single European language would do more good for the EU than a single currency ever could.
Obviously the lingua franca of the EU should be English
Obviously. Fog in Channel, Europe Isolated.
The Germans speak wonderful English, America speaks English (after a fashion), multi national Indian and Chinese businesses conduct their businesses in English.
The evidence for English as the single language of Europe is overwhelming, and I say that as someone who is very multi lingual
I am writing an Alternate Timeline of a UK where Britain joins the Euro; the point of departure being that Thatcher doesn't give the Bruges speech.
Interesting.
I've long thought that the fact that we didn't join the Euro was based largely on luck, and in particular on the fact that it so happened that we joined ERM at a time when the exchange rate happened to be unsustainable. That didn't seem like good luck at the time, but in retrospect I think it's the single biggest reason why we didn't join the Euro.
Have you ever been a supporter of UK membership of the Euro, Richard? Either now or in the distant past?
I've always supported and still do support a single European currency, so long as that currency was sterling.
I've always thought a single European language would do more good for the EU than a single currency ever could.
Obviously the lingua franca of the EU should be English
Any single currency will eventually result in a single government. There would be local governments, analogous to the states in America, but no matter what you call the govt it would be a supra national 'federal' one.
Have you ever been a supporter of UK membership of the Euro, Richard? Either now or in the distant past?
Certainly not now! In the distant past I was unsure, although I expected that we would join, especially when Blair became PM. It's hard to underestimate the strength of the conventional wisdom at the time: in business, amongst economists, in the City, and amongst politicians of all parties, with a few exceptions. It seems odd now, but that's how it was.
Had Clarke been elected Tory leader in 1997 or 2001 we may have joined
But there's freedom of movement and freedom of movement. It's one thing to be allowed to come here for work, quite another to come here with your wife and four kids to work part time subsidised by tax credits and housing benefit. Sort that issue out and most people will be in favour of free movement.
I think there will certainly be a deal on that (in fact, it's not even obvious that we need a formal deal to tighten up on that aspect). At the margin, that will help a bit, but the UK will still be an attractive place to come and work, or look for work, both of which are rights under the freedom of movement principle, so I don't think in numeric terms changes to the welfare system will have a big effect.
Having said that, I expect Cameron will claim this as a big victory. It is also true, as you say, that it is partly the welfare aspect which riles people, so in a sense he'll be right to do so.
There are nearly a third of a million EU nationals receiving tax credits.
If this income support is removed, along with that of housing benefit subsidising rent payments, there is potential for substantial change across the labour and housing markets. It would also impact substantially on demand for health and education services.
In recent times I've regularly encountered EU citizens who would have no hope of forging a life here without this aid.
I try to be open minded, but he really just seems simple minded, with that classic angry 'whatever' type shutdown when extremists find out that when not in an echo chamber it is very easy for people to come up with awkward questions which combat their own arguments.
I've seen better manners on Jeremy Kyle. You're spot on about the whole angry thug attitude when caught out - Jeremy gets half a dozen a week with the same MO and it doesn't fool anyone.
I try to be open minded, but he really just seems simple minded, with that classic angry 'whatever' type shutdown when extremists find out that when not in an echo chamber it is very easy for people to come up with awkward questions.
'Certainly not now! In the distant past I was unsure, although I expected that we would join, especially when Blair became PM. It's hard to underestimate the strength of the conventional wisdom at the time: in business, amongst economists, in the City, and amongst politicians of all parties, with a few exceptions. It seems odd now, but that's how it was.'
That is rubbish Richard - a very large number of UK economists, probably the majority, were always against the euro.
And I have no idea what is meant by 'The City' in this context. I worked in a senior role there from 1995-2006 and remember discussions on the euro issue vividly - the majority of city workers were against it and even the more PC elements of senior management were very dubious.
You should remember that it was very strong arguments from City economists and financiers that played a key part in crushing the pro-euro arguments peddled by lightweights like Danny Alexander and Blair and helped prevent the latter from holding a referendum.
The fact that you admit to being a slave to what you think is the 'conventional wisdom' is interesting though.
@chestnut - I hope you are right, but on the other hand, the increase in the minimum wage [I still resist the 'living wage' rebranding] will increase the attraction of the UK for many. We could see a change in the mix, of course.
You should remember that it was very strong arguments from City economists and financiers that played a key part in crushing the pro-euro arguments peddled by lightweights like Danny Alexander and Blair and helped prevent the latter from holding a referendum.
Was it? I'm not saying you're wrong, but I don't recall that.
It's a pity, incidentally, that you've become so prone to personalising arguments. When you don't, you are quite interesting.
I've always felt that Sauron wasn't as bad as people made out.
He was a fairly poor military commander and strategist.
I mean two Hobbits managed to walk up to his front door and destroy the ring he wanted.
I'm sure Tolkien based him on someone from Carthage.
LOL!
Possibly, that's the wisdom of hindsight. Sauron believed, reasonably enough, that anyone who got the ring would want to use it against him. It never crossed his mind that anyone could or would want to destroy it.
Like a lot of people, his blog suggests he was not the sharpest knife in the drawer. Very funny though. Its a shame it seems to have stopped. http://www.sauronsblog.com/
Okay, just listened to it. A good discussion on a number of issues in Scottish politics at the moment.
As an outsider I still don't get how the SNP will manage to get away with not defending their record in Scotland running up to next year's election. The Scottish government runs policing, education and health, these should be the issues discussed when electing the politicians to the Scottish government rather than constitutional stuff.
On the point made in towards the end of the podcast, I really hope that the debate around the EU referendum is of better quality than what we got in Scotland last year - although from last week's discussions on here I'm not too sure!
The point is they are more popular than ever and seen to be doing a good job against the evil empire. It will be a Tsunami in 2016 with the London parties scrambling for consolation list seats. Hence Davidson fleeing Glasgow and chucking one of her minions out in Edinburgh list. Labour will follow suit.
Counting chickens a little Mr G on the day the Tories beat the SNP in an Aberdeen by election
Russia bans all flights to all of Egypt. We should be proud of our World Leading Security Services and also in David Cameron taking the right decision to put British lives first. The implications of this go far beyond Egypt and may well result in the UK banning flights to other Countries. David Cameron leads, Putin follows, and Obama is nowhere, and as for Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister !!!!
Comments
Intriguing idea. Regardless of whether it's true or not, the character was too damned annoying.
Edited extra bit: Mr. F, aye, Sauron was mostly cunning, but that was a substantial oversight.
He defeated Numenor by guile not might, so it's not unreasonable to think he might have a better inkling into the hearts of creatures other than himself.
As an aside, I much prefer The Silmarillion to Lord of the Rings.
I have had pensioners themselves tell me it is insane that they are given these things when they are already 'comfortable'.
'I still think the Lib Dems could beat the UKIP on MPs'
...would imply that UKIP are generally considered to be favourites in this heat, when I can't imagine anyone thinks they are
Bit like saying 'I still think Chelsea could finish above Bournemouth on points'
Just kidding, Corbyn fans, I know he won the vote among longer term Labour members too.
Baroness Shields says she will get back to Lord Farmer with the latest statistics on anal sex injuries.
I do wonder how things would have turned out if Sir Geoffrey Howe had toppled Lady Thatcher over the poll tax instead of the EC.
Perhaps the fault line in the party over the EU might not have been so bad.
Oh the joys - a seat I know something about and ScotP et al clearly know absolutely nothing about. The reason I know is that this is where my Aberdeenshire relatives come from.
Top of the poll last time was an independent but really a Tory who is still in place and was part of the previous Tory/Independent coalition who ran the council.
The other successful candidates were the SNP and the Liberals. The SNP lady was Joanna Strathdee who sadly passed away but was one of the most popular councillors in the whole of Aberdeenshire and former parliamentary candidate. The Liberal was OK and retires from ill health hence the double poll.
The Tories chose a lady not previously known as a Tory but in many organisations. The SNP chose a young single Mum who is well thought of locally and works (I think) for the local MSP. Both selections are to their parties credit. Labour intervened for the first time.
In that light for the SNP lady to increase the share of the vote is a very very good result. The Tories will be pleased to top the poll but their vote increase is a direct result of having no independent in this the most Tory inclined ward in the constituency.
Both parties will be happy to secure the seat and for the Liberals to lose badly in what used to be their Parliamentary seat. I am very upset that the result does not fulfil the wet dreams of Scot P but there we are - facts are chiels that winna ding!
In an unpublished interview, the shadow chancellor said the 2011 London rioters were 'victims, not perpetrators'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11979016/John-McDonnell-London-rioters-were-victims.html
****ing unbelievable. They're off their bloody rockers.
That, along with noting the people who celebrated it, were dead giveaways to even those unaware of the scottish political weather
It is possible that either a wet Tory government (assuming it won with Howe/Heseltine in 1992) or a Kinnnock led Labour government might not have done so well with the Maastrict opt-outs, or might not have tried.
That could have led us to joining the euro - potentially without a referendum, but just a 1997GE win - assuming the 1992 ERM debacle was successfully navigated.
But such things can be exaggerated. Sweden IIRC doesn't have one and, in theory, is obliged to join the euro but still hasn't.
People died in those riots. Businesses were torched. Premises were looted.
Your choice of four letter word to describe McDonnell makes politeness a vice.
He didn't seem to understand why it was a problem and said that violence is justified, though couldn't say what the point was of last night.
Mr. Gravitation, the upper echelons of Labour are currently inhabited by mentally subnormal juvenile delinquents. It's sad to see. We need a proper opposition to keep the government from complacency and arrogance.
Anyway, I must be off for a while.
It would have been tactically far harder for him to have brought down Thatcher over the Poll Tax. Howe's coup was successful because chance enabled him to align a current issue with the timing of the Conservative leadership election which forced Heseltine's hand. Had the election not been in the offing, his resignation would have been a re-run of Lawson's: damaging but not fatal. Likewise, without the topicality of the EC issue, it would have looked more premeditated and less principled.
And a resignation over the Poll Tax couldn't be principled for a minister who'd been in the cabinet throughout its introduction (even if, as Foreign Secretary, he bore no personal responsibility beyond the general collective). There would undoubtedly be quotes of him defending the tax which could be played back. The best he could say would be 'we tried it, it doesn't work, it needs repealing' - but that's not an argument to stir the soul.
What might have saved the Tories over the EC/EU is that Maastricht would have been delayed until after 1992 had Thatcher not been toppled, meaning a rather different British deal and one that the Conservatives could have opposed with a much more united front. Essentially, the party would have become Eurosceptic much more quickly.
I am writing an Alternate Timeline of a UK where Britain joins the Euro; the point of departure being that Thatcher doesn't give the Bruges speech.
But you are correct if you mean immigration (in general) will be a fault line.
I've long thought that the fact that we didn't join the Euro was based largely on luck, and in particular on the fact that it so happened that we joined ERM at a time when the exchange rate happened to be unsustainable. That didn't seem like good luck at the time, but in retrospect I think it's the single biggest reason why we didn't join the Euro.
I know that's not what you and lots of other people want to hear, but I think that it is the reality.
Funny how the Edgar Griffiths micro-scandal had so little effect at the time - didn't turn the leadership election in Ken Clarke's favour, nor did it particularly overshadow IDS's spell as leader. Yet by the power of blogging and social media, a solid attempt is being made to turn it into a life-defining incident.
You persist in saying there is 'no choice' but to sign up to full freedom of movement without providing any convincing evidence of this, other than your own opinion.
There are a plethora of other bodies who disagree - not least of which is Open Europe - who believe this can be negotiated in a bilateral deal. It may only effect the 'type' of deal we get.
If you wish to push this line, you might be better off arguing there may be consequences in terms of how liberal the access is that we end up negotiating to the single market, with a consequent economic effect if we choose to persist with this line, but that's not a given either and to argue that we simply have no choice is not true.
Even Norway through the EEA has an emergency brake clause - and, no, I'm not arguing for the EEA.
In my view, the primary reason we didn't join was that John Major was prime minister and had the foresight to have the FO prepare a clause for insertion into the treaty that gave Britain the opt-out, which enabled the UK to sign the treaty but for the rest (bar Denmark) to go ahead. Thatcher wouldn't have signed at all but that would in all probability simply have delayed the treaty. I don't think that Kinnock would have got (or even gone for) the opt-out at all.
Sam Macrory
@sammacrory
"It would've been a revolution probably but I think the weather put everyone off to be honest" - a damp Million Mask marcher explains #bbcdp
If we do vote to leave the EU, I'll be offering bets on this. I hope to make good money from it!
It's one thing to be allowed to come here for work, quite another to come here with your wife and four kids to work part time subsidised by tax credits and housing benefit. Sort that issue out and most people will be in favour of free movement.
I've always thought a single European language would do more good for the EU than a single currency ever could.
Obviously the lingua franca of the EU should be English
Having said that, I expect Cameron will claim this as a big victory. It is also true, as you say, that it is partly the welfare aspect which riles people, so in a sense he'll be right to do so.
Fog in Channel, Europe Isolated.
The evidence for English as the single language of Europe is overwhelming, and I say that as someone who is very multi lingual
http://www.totalpolitics.com/blog/452141/oldham-byelection-candidates-takes-their-places.thtml
http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=361152
If this income support is removed, along with that of housing benefit subsidising rent payments, there is potential for substantial change across the labour and housing markets. It would also impact substantially on demand for health and education services.
In recent times I've regularly encountered EU citizens who would have no hope of forging a life here without this aid.
I fear I may be an Establishment stooge.
That is rubbish Richard - a very large number of UK economists, probably the majority, were always against the euro.
And I have no idea what is meant by 'The City' in this context. I worked in a senior role there from 1995-2006 and remember discussions on the euro issue vividly - the majority of city workers were against it and even the more PC elements of senior management were very dubious.
You should remember that it was very strong arguments from City economists and financiers that played a key part in crushing the pro-euro arguments peddled by lightweights like Danny Alexander and Blair and helped prevent the latter from holding a referendum.
The fact that you admit to being a slave to what you think is the 'conventional wisdom' is interesting though.
It's a pity, incidentally, that you've become so prone to personalising arguments. When you don't, you are quite interesting.
CON: 36.3% (+9.8)
SNP: 35.4% (-0.7)
LD: 22.9% (-4.7)
LAB: 4.8% (-4.8)
LBT: 0.5%
SNP: 35.4% (+0.7)
LD: 22.9% (+4.7)
LAB: 4.8% (+4.8)
IND: 0% (-20.0)
LBT: 0.5%
Maybe ?
http://www.sauronsblog.com/