As long as Labour is led by weak leaders like Ed Miliband and Corbyn whose only chance of power us being propped up by the SNP Tory posters like this will work. If and when Labour are led by a stronger, more charismatic leader like Chuka Umunna or Dan Jarvis who could win a majority such attacks will have less impact
Scottish Tories voted 90% plus for the union in indyref, had Scottish Labour got its voters to do the same No would have won a landslide
Scottish Labour lost most of its base because it supported No. I would imagine the vast majority of current Labour voters in Scotland support the union.
Yes but it was Labour's half hearted pro union campaign with a few honourable exceptions like Jim Murphy which failed to enthuse its voters unlike Ruth Davidson's positive pro Union campaign
I disagree. Labour's problem was that it campaigned on the same side as the Tories at a time when Westminster was (and is) held in contempt by most Scottish voters. Labour contributed greatly to that feeling of contempt by taking Scotland so much for granted, of course.
Referendums are cross party as EU ref will be
But it was perceived as a partnership with the Tories. Labour also must not make the same mistake in the EU referendum. By all means support staying IN but do not get on the same platform as Cameron / Osborne.
It is the Tories who are at greater risk there from sharing a platform with Labour as they could lose Out voters to UKIP as Labour lost Yes voters to the SNP
Would the Corbynite left be willing to swallow the huge loss of defence jobs that its suggested human rights policy would entail? There are already stories about possible loss of Saudi contracts as a result of the cancellation of this prison contract. Seats with defence interests would be mad to vote labour in 2020. In the same way, seats with car building interests would be mad to vote Leave in the referendum.
My sales in the Automotive industry has crashed over the last few months. No new projects / investments are taking place or are planned. The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments. Not surprising really.
P.S. I am not talking about "software".
Is that the same UK automotive industry you said would be shut down if the UK didn't join the Euro ?
"The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments."
I can tell you from where I work that your statement isn't true.
Er...when did I say that ? I am not sure PB even existed in 1997. In fact, it was Brown / Balls who made sure that the UK did not join the Euro.
Revisionist history, I'm afraid.
TB never pushed to join because he knew he couldn't win a referendum. He was, of course, pushed into conceding a referendum by Major, who in turn was pushed into it by Jimmy Goldsmith.
Earlier on in the week David Cameron claimed that Norway has to adopt roughly 75% of all EU rules. Turns out he was not just wrong, but badly wrong. It is 21%.
The reasoning behind the 21% figure can be found here:
Therein lying an issue for 'remain'. Its support and activist base is on one side of the political spectrum (left) and its leadership is (or at least appears to be) on the other (right). So you have left wing activists (not to mention SNP ones) knocking on doors with Cameron's message.
Never in a million year would I be peddling Cameron's message. I will promote our message. The advances working people have made since the EU is a long list [ working time directives, part-time workers rights, etc. etc. ]
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
Nor will you be if there is ever an 'independent' Scotland. The freedom or lack of it is entirely in your head, as is David's though he at least hints as much.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
You must hate your fellow Scots for decisively not seeing it that way.
What a turnip, why would I hate anybody just because their opinion differs from mine.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
All the pro-Union parties will die and will reconstitute themselves. Labour will keep its name, accept Indy and start winning again as it becomes clear just how many fibs the SNP told. The Tories may have to change their name, but will doubtless pick up votes from the SNP too, and will probably win power - or a share of it - within a decade or so. For its part, the SNP will soldier on for a while, then disappear, it's job done.
Not necessarily the SNP could become a Scottish Fianna Fail. Anyway the revival of the Canadian Liberals in Quebec after many years shows it is possible for Labour to revive even if independence is rejected again
Even more alarmingly, she is viewed as a 'realist'. What peculiar fantasies are the others indulging in to make her, of all people, seem like a realist? They must at the very least involve pigs in some capacity or other (Ashcroft showed what is possible).
It's as though he wants an SNP/Liberal Democrat alliance to form the official opposition.
That's absolutely terrifying if accurate (and usually even the sketchwriters at the Spectator are pretty switched on, so I'm assuming it is).
This paragraph is particularly unbelievable:
The thing is, you see, that “Take a fresh look” has been the unofficial theme of every meeting of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party since, oh, at least 1997. When you are reduced to pinching lines from the Scottish Tories you are probably in a position similar to the lost traveller seeking directions to Limerick who was told “Well, I wouldn’t start from here”.
I think their only chance of staying relevant is a UDI from London and running themselves in a loose alliance with Labour, like the SDLP, but making their own policy and strategy decisions.
Labour has to start again in Scotland. The obvious thing to do is to tack to the left and call the SNP's bluff over things such as income tax and tax credits. It may take some time, but come the first election in an independent Scotland - 2024 is my guess - the party may be very well positioned to benefit from the SNP's implosion.
Problem with that is that the majority do not want real left wing, they want centralish but with a heart ( unlike the Tories). They do not want socialist halfwits , rather a party that can run the country and try to help both rich and poor. That is not current labour party. They are neither real left wing or have a clue how to run anything.
Most centrist voters backed the Tories in yesterday's BMG
You mean extreme right wingers, a handful no doubt
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
You must hate your fellow Scots for decisively not seeing it that way.
What a turnip, why would I hate anybody just because their opinion differs from mine.
Because they stopped you claiming your freedom for a generation.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
All freedom has limits Malcolm. For example I am now under instruction to accompany my wife for her Saturday morning Costas.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
How do you think the English felt then when the PM was Brown and the Chancellor Darling, both Scots!
Poor diddums, 2 people out of the whole government were Scottish. It must have been terrible for you.
As long as Labour is led by weak leaders like Ed Miliband and Corbyn whose only chance of power us being propped up by the SNP Tory posters like this will work. If and when Labour are led by a stronger, more charismatic leader like Chuka Umunna or Dan Jarvis who could win a majority such attacks will have less impact
LOL, two donkeys , especially the weak facile Chucka, at least Jarvis is a complete nobody.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
Nor will you be if there is ever an 'independent' Scotland. The freedom or lack of it is entirely in your head, as is David's though he at least hints as much.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
So you want to leave the EU, unlike your SNP masters.
Reports from several agencies that the plane crashed in Egypt has been found, no survivors but at least one black box recovered (there are two). If that's true we should have an idea what happened pretty quickly. RIP to 224 people onboard, including a number of families.
A basic Tory problem with tax credits is a lack of clear message. I think that most people sense that Osborne thinks the cuts are a good thing and he is being dragged reluctantly to watering them down. That prevents a "Sorry, we got it wrong, we're listening and will change it" strategy from working. If, conversely, they wanted to persuade people that their strategy was right and they are merely compromising as necessary to get it through, people would understand the tactics, though it would reinforce the "nasty" image in some floating voter minds, and they could hope to look "nasty but comptent", which arguably is what won the election for them.
Currently they have the worst of both worlds - they aren't any longer saying the cuts are a good thing, and they aren't offering a clear alternative, but punting it to the autumn statement for two uncomfortable weeks. As a result, the polling on the issue has worsened markedly from the initially muffled picture.
Leaving aside political advantage, the real world issue which even hardened Conservatives would I'd think be able to accept is that nobody except the extremely rich can easily weather a sudden £1300/month drop in income, whether it's justified in principle or not. People adjust to what income they have and take mortgages, buy clothes, plan family budgets etc. accordingly. So it simply doesn't help to say "Ha, we've just noticed that you're getting an unreasonable amount, and we're going to take it all away next spring".
£1300 a month Nick ?!
Just how fucking much are people being paid for their kids that the drop is that much !! No wonder we won't hit our emissions targets by 2050...
If I have kids, my income will effectively drop by about that much: (a) because my wife will stop working, and we'll lose her income or (b) she won't, but we'll have to pay that much in childcare costs.
We will receive absolutely no benefits as I earn above £50k - and no, that doesn't make me rich.
It's something we have to factor in when making a decision on having kids. I don't see why others should have their family choices heavily subsidised at my (our) expense.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
All freedom has limits Malcolm. For example I am now under instruction to accompany my wife for her Saturday morning Costas.
LOL, I also am receiving orders from the boss. I will go do a bit of shopping and have a look at the new Mini Clubman being launched today and also have a look at the BMW showroom , then a nice pint of ale I think , no Costa's for me.
Earlier on in the week David Cameron claimed that Norway has to adopt roughly 75% of all EU rules. Turns out he was not just wrong, but badly wrong. It is 21%.
The reasoning behind the 21% figure can be found here:
Therein lying an issue for 'remain'. Its support and activist base is on one side of the political spectrum (left) and its leadership is (or at least appears to be) on the other (right). So you have left wing activists (not to mention SNP ones) knocking on doors with Cameron's message.
Never in a million year would I be peddling Cameron's message. I will promote our message. The advances working people have made since the EU is a long list [ working time directives, part-time workers rights, etc. etc. ]
Together we are stronger !
You do realise a huge number of EU labour laws originate from the International Labour Organisation?
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
You must hate your fellow Scots for decisively not seeing it that way.
What a turnip, why would I hate anybody just because their opinion differs from mine.
Because they stopped you claiming your freedom for a generation.
Not at all , that is life. I am in favour of democracy even for misguided fools.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
So you want to leave the EU, unlike your SNP masters.
Silly Monica , how do you make that fantastic leap. Joining the EU club does not mean that at all.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
Nor will you be if there is ever an 'independent' Scotland. The freedom or lack of it is entirely in your head, as is David's though he at least hints as much.
Scots voted NO in the referendum..no one else ...just Scots
I would not expect you to know reality. I think you mean the people currently residing in Scotland and on the electoral register voted, some YES and some more NO.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
You must hate your fellow Scots for decisively not seeing it that way.
What a turnip, why would I hate anybody just because their opinion differs from mine.
Because they stopped you claiming your freedom for a generation.
Not at all , that is life. I am in favour of democracy even for misguided fools.
So you agree that there shouldn't be another referendum for a generation. Glad we agree. Have a good day out.
A basic Tory problem with tax credits is a lack of clear message. I think that most people sense that Osborne thinks the cuts are a good thing and he is being dragged reluctantly to watering them down. That prevents a "Sorry, we got it wrong, we're listening and will change it" strategy from working. If, conversely, they wanted to persuade people that their strategy was right and they are merely compromising as necessary to get it through, people would understand the tactics, though it would reinforce the "nasty" image in some floating voter minds, and they could hope to look "nasty but comptent", which arguably is what won the election for them.
Currently they have the worst of both worlds - they aren't any longer saying the cuts are a good thing, and they aren't offering a clear alternative, but punting it to the autumn statement for two uncomfortable weeks. As a result, the polling on the issue has worsened markedly from the initially muffled picture.
Leaving aside political advantage, the real world issue which even hardened Conservatives would I'd think be able to accept is that nobody except the extremely rich can easily weather a sudden £1300/month drop in income, whether it's justified in principle or not. People adjust to what income they have and take mortgages, buy clothes, plan family budgets etc. accordingly. So it simply doesn't help to say "Ha, we've just noticed that you're getting an unreasonable amount, and we're going to take it all away next spring".
£1300 a month Nick ?!
Just how fucking much are people being paid for their kids that the drop is that much !! No wonder we won't hit our emissions targets by 2050...
If I have kids, my income will effectively drop by about that much: (a) because my wife will stop working, and we'll lose her income or (b) she won't, but we'll have to pay that much in childcare costs.
We will receive absolutely no benefits as I earn above £50k - and no, that doesn't make me rich.
It's something we have to factor in when making a decision on having kids. I don't see why others should have their family choices heavily subsidised at my (our) expense.
PS. Kate looks like a Stepford Wife in that photo...
One can only hope.
Are you serious? I'm the last person who would want us to be slaves to Washington but the idea we should trade that in to be a patsy of the 'People's' Republic is just extraordinary. If one looks at the world and some it's it's major power bases - the US, EU, China, Russia, India - it's fairly obvious which one we have the least in common with. Neither in the long run may the people of China be particularly forgiving of us if we are falling over ourselves to please their deeply authoritarian government (just think of the Shah of Iran).
I've said it before on here but a senior government official was quoted shortly after 2010 as saying that Cameron regarded the rest of the world as a place to go on holiday. Prime ministers of imperial powers ruling the waves can perhaps get away with such recklessness. Leaders of very trade dependent middle sized nations cannot. Everyone assumes Cameron's legacy will be about the economy or the welfare state and it's scale. As with Blair it could well turn out to be foreign affairs. And the verdict may not be kind.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
Nor will you be if there is ever an 'independent' Scotland. The freedom or lack of it is entirely in your head, as is David's though he at least hints as much.
At least I will be free in my head though.
Perhaps you will, perhaps you won't.
That is life , my first hope is that I am still here.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
You must hate your fellow Scots for decisively not seeing it that way.
What a turnip, why would I hate anybody just because their opinion differs from mine.
Because they stopped you claiming your freedom for a generation.
Not at all , that is life. I am in favour of democracy even for misguided fools.
So you agree that there shouldn't be another referendum for a generation. Glad we agree. Have a good day out.
Exactly..those in Scotland deemed to be Scottish enough, voted to stay in the Union..get over it..
Richard , you seem obsessed by it and all bitter and twisted, you should heed your own advice. I am perfectly OK with the result, pity the same cannot be said about yourself.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
How do you think the English felt then when the PM was Brown and the Chancellor Darling, both Scots!
Poor diddums, 2 people out of the whole government were Scottish. It must have been terrible for you.
Plus Murphy, Reid and Alexander and many more and more English voters voted Tory than Labour in 2005 even if Labour won more seats
Even more alarmingly, she is viewed as a 'realist'. What peculiar fantasies are the others indulging in to make her, of all people, seem like a realist? They must at the very least involve pigs in some capacity or other (Ashcroft showed what is possible).
It's as though he wants an SNP/Liberal Democrat alliance to form the official opposition.
That's absolutely terrifying if accurate (and usually even the sketchwriters at the Spectator are pretty switched on, so I'm assuming it is).
This paragraph is particularly unbelievable:
The thing is, you see, that “Take a fresh look” has been the unofficial theme of every meeting of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party since, oh, at least 1997. When you are reduced to pinching lines from the Scottish Tories you are probably in a position similar to the lost traveller seeking directions to Limerick who was told “Well, I wouldn’t start from here”.
I think their only chance of staying relevant is a UDI from London and running themselves in a loose alliance with Labour, like the SDLP, but making their own policy and strategy decisions.
Labour has to start again in Scotland. The obvious thing to do is to tack to the left and call the SNP's bluff over things such as income tax and tax credits. It may take some time, but come the first election in an independent Scotland - 2024 is my guess - the party may be very well positioned to benefit from the SNP's implosion.
Problem with that is that the majority do not want real left wing, they want centralish but with a heart ( unlike the Tories). They do not want socialist halfwits , rather a party that can run the country and try to help both rich and poor. That is not current labour party. They are neither real left wing or have a clue how to run anything.
Most centrist voters backed the Tories in yesterday's BMG
You mean extreme right wingers, a handful no doubt
As long as Labour is led by weak leaders like Ed Miliband and Corbyn whose only chance of power us being propped up by the SNP Tory posters like this will work. If and when Labour are led by a stronger, more charismatic leader like Chuka Umunna or Dan Jarvis who could win a majority such attacks will have less impact
LOL, two donkeys , especially the weak facile Chucka, at least Jarvis is a complete nobody.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
You must hate your fellow Scots for decisively not seeing it that way.
What a turnip, why would I hate anybody just because their opinion differs from mine.
Because they stopped you claiming your freedom for a generation.
Not at all , that is life. I am in favour of democracy even for misguided fools.
So you agree that there shouldn't be another referendum for a generation. Glad we agree. Have a good day out.
No and thank you , hope yours is good as well.
Ah, so you're trying to have it both ways. Can't say I'm surprised.
Exactly..those in Scotland deemed to be Scottish enough, voted to stay in the Union..get over it..
Richard , you seem obsessed by it and all bitter and twisted, you should heed your own advice. I am perfectly OK with the result, pity the same cannot be said about yourself.
Scots voted NO in the referendum..no one else ...just Scots
I would not expect you to know reality. I think you mean the people currently residing in Scotland and on the electoral register voted, some YES and some more NO.
And as I recall, the 'Yes' side were only too happy to include immigrants (including very recent ones) in its happy band of country splitters. Can hardly complain now when it didn't work.
The first poll after the 2010 election that didn't have a Con lead was published on 15/8/10 by ICM, reporting Con 37, Lab 37, LD 18. There were two other tied polls before the first that had a Labour lead, by YouGov on 27/9/10, reporting Lab 40, Con 39, LD 12. During October 2010, the margins varied between a 7-point Con lead and a 3-point one for Lab but most were in the range of Lab +1 to Con +3.
Now, we can be sceptical of the methodology of the time, and of pollsters long since departed (that Lab +3 was from Angus Reid), and we can note that far fewer polls are being published than was the case five years ago, but the fact remains that nearly six months into the parliament, not only has no pollster produced one showing level-pegging, never mind with a Labour lead, but that the smallest Con lead is +4 and that ComRes is still pumping out scores with Con topside of 40 and double-digits ahead of Labour.
It might be an interesting market on when the first Lab lead will appear.
For reference, the first opposition-ahead polls in previous parliaments were:
1979-83: 18/06/79 - 6 weeks (the first poll of the parliament!) 1983-87: 13/02/84 - 8 months 1987-92: 18/04/88 - 10 months 1992-97: 28/07/92 - 4½ months 1997-2001: 15/09/00 - 3 years, 4 months 2001-05: 26/06/03 - 2 years 2005-10: 08/12/05 - 7 months 2010-15: 27/09/10 - 5 months
So historically, although there's nothing too significant about an opposition party going this long without a lead, it's perhaps notable that we are into the period of 5-10 months when the first crossover usually appears.
A basic Tory problem with tax credits is a lack of clear message. I think that most people sense that Osborne thinks the cuts are a good thing and he is being dragged reluctantly to watering them down. That prevents a "Sorry, we got it wrong, we're listening and will change it" strategy from working. If, conversely, they wanted to persuade people that their strategy was right and they are merely compromising as necessary to get it through, people would understand the tactics, though it would reinforce the "nasty" image in some floating voter minds, and they could hope to look "nasty but comptent", which arguably is what won the election for them.
Currently they have the worst of both worlds - they aren't any longer saying the cuts are a good thing, and they aren't offering a clear alternative, but punting it to the autumn statement for two uncomfortable weeks. As a result, the polling on the issue has worsened markedly from the initially muffled picture.
Leaving aside political advantage, the real world issue which even hardened Conservatives would I'd think be able to accept is that nobody except the extremely rich can easily weather a sudden £1300/month drop in income, whether it's justified in principle or not. People adjust to what income they have and take mortgages, buy clothes, plan family budgets etc. accordingly. So it simply doesn't help to say "Ha, we've just noticed that you're getting an unreasonable amount, and we're going to take it all away next spring".
£1300 a month Nick ?!
Just how fucking much are people being paid for their kids that the drop is that much !! No wonder we won't hit our emissions targets by 2050...
If I have kids, my income will effectively drop by about that much: (a) because my wife will stop working, and we'll lose her income or (b) she won't, but we'll have to pay that much in childcare costs.
We will receive absolutely no benefits as I earn above £50k - and no, that doesn't make me rich.
It's something we have to factor in when making a decision on having kids. I don't see why others should have their family choices heavily subsidised at my (our) expense.
Personally I would stop child benefit after 2 children as tax credits have been stopped. £50k may not be very rich but it is still almost double the average salary
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
How do you think the English felt then when the PM was Brown and the Chancellor Darling, both Scots!
Poor diddums, 2 people out of the whole government were Scottish. It must have been terrible for you.
Plus Murphy, Reid and Alexander and many more and more English voters voted Tory than Labour in 2005 even if Labour won more seats
Blair is a Scot, although he pretends to be English. In fact the whole ghastly New Labour regime was disproportionately Scottish.
Earlier on in the week David Cameron claimed that Norway has to adopt roughly 75% of all EU rules. Turns out he was not just wrong, but badly wrong. It is 21%.
The reasoning behind the 21% figure can be found here:
Therein lying an issue for 'remain'. Its support and activist base is on one side of the political spectrum (left) and its leadership is (or at least appears to be) on the other (right). So you have left wing activists (not to mention SNP ones) knocking on doors with Cameron's message.
Never in a million year would I be peddling Cameron's message. I will promote our message. The advances working people have made since the EU is a long list [ working time directives, part-time workers rights, etc. etc. ]
Together we are stronger !
Those are two completely separate arguments. Were Britain outside the EU, could not Blair or Brown have introduced their own equivalent of working time directives, part-time workers rights, etc. etc.?
Malcolm G Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to see that whinging nation of Scots get out of the way of the rest of the UK...Please make it soon..
Malcolm G Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to see that whinging nation of Scots get out of the way of the rest of the UK...Please make it soon..
Unfortunately, that disregards the settled will of the Scottish people.
Exactly..those in Scotland deemed to be Scottish enough, voted to stay in the Union..get over it..
Richard , you seem obsessed by it and all bitter and twisted, you should heed your own advice. I am perfectly OK with the result, pity the same cannot be said about yourself.
Malcolm G Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to see that whinging nation of Scots get out of the way of the rest of the UK...Please make it soon..
Scots voted NO in the referendum..no one else ...just Scots
I would not expect you to know reality. I think you mean the people currently residing in Scotland and on the electoral register voted, some YES and some more NO.
And as I recall, the 'Yes' side were only too happy to include immigrants (including very recent ones) in its happy band of country splitters. Can hardly complain now when it didn't work.
You halfwitted moron, they used the electoral register. Given how stupid you appear to be THAT MEANS PEOPLE WHO ARE ELIGIBLE TO VOTE IN ELECTIONS. Seemingly not just stupid but racist with a chip about immigrants.
Exactly..those in Scotland deemed to be Scottish enough, voted to stay in the Union..get over it..
Richard , you seem obsessed by it and all bitter and twisted, you should heed your own advice. I am perfectly OK with the result, pity the same cannot be said about yourself.
Lying or deluded?
Richard would need to tell you that
Would he know if you're lying to us or to yourself? You plainly aren't happy with the result and are unwilling to accept it and move on.
Two thirds of two parent families receiving tax credits have an adult in them who doesn't work.
Looking at those tax free numbers, it isn't hard to see why.
If the public knew this, I suspect that moods would rapidly alter.
When tax credits were first introduced, I believe it was estimated they would cost £1.5bn a year. Now they have turned into this £30bn a year scheme. 1/3 of the budget of the whole NHS.
The first poll after the 2010 election that didn't have a Con lead was published on 15/8/10 by ICM, reporting Con 37, Lab 37, LD 18. There were two other tied polls before the first that had a Labour lead, by YouGov on 27/9/10, reporting Lab 40, Con 39, LD 12. During October 2010, the margins varied between a 7-point Con lead and a 3-point one for Lab but most were in the range of Lab +1 to Con +3.
Now, we can be sceptical of the methodology of the time, and of pollsters long since departed (that Lab +3 was from Angus Reid), and we can note that far fewer polls are being published than was the case five years ago, but the fact remains that nearly six months into the parliament, not only has no pollster produced one showing level-pegging, never mind with a Labour lead, but that the smallest Con lead is +4 and that ComRes is still pumping out scores with Con topside of 40 and double-digits ahead of Labour.
It might be an interesting market on when the first Lab lead will appear.
For reference, the first opposition-ahead polls in previous parliaments were:
1979-83: 18/06/79 - 6 weeks (the first poll of the parliament!) 1983-87: 13/02/84 - 8 months 1987-92: 18/04/88 - 10 months 1992-97: 28/07/92 - 4½ months 1997-2001: 15/09/00 - 3 years, 4 months 2001-05: 26/06/03 - 2 years 2005-10: 08/12/05 - 7 months 2010-15: 27/09/10 - 5 months
So historically, although there's nothing too significant about an opposition party going this long without a lead, it's perhaps notable that we are into the period of 5-10 months when the first crossover usually appears.
If Corbyn is Labour's IDS the first Labour poll lead should appear in 2017 i.e. a few months before he is deposed anyway. IDS had a handful of poll leads in 2003, although Labour led on average, before he was toppled in October after the Brent East by election
My sales in the Automotive industry has crashed over the last few months. No new projects / investments are taking place or are planned. The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments. Not surprising really.
P.S. I am not talking about "software".
Is that the same UK automotive industry you said would be shut down if the UK didn't join the Euro ?
"The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments."
I can tell you from where I work that your statement isn't true.
From where you work you probably don't see a recession. Not coming, we are in it.
Manufacturing: Q1 -0.1% Q2 -0.5% Q3 -0.3%
Source: ONS
"However, output in the manufacturing sector declined by 0.3%.
"The slowdown is being led by the manufacturing sector, which is seeing a renewed recession as output has now fallen for three consecutive quarters, suffering a 0.3% decline in the three months to September," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at research firm Markit.
"Manufacturing output has so far fallen 0.9% this year. Producers are struggling as weak demand in many overseas markets, notably China and other emerging nations, is being exacerbated by the appreciation of sterling." "
These are facts. Not some output from a delusional character.
I work in manufacturing in Yorkshire so I have rather more contact with it than someone who lives in Margo Ledbetter's part of the world.
And if you look back to last Saturday's DH thread you'll see that I was pointing out that the UK was now in its THIRD manufacturing recession since Osborne proclaimed the 'March of the Makers'.
This government has been pretty crap for manufacturing but even so not as crap as Labour was.
But I've never heard you complain about the way Blair and Brown shat on the manufacturing sector from 2000 onwards.
Nor have you ever blamed EdM for the disasterous effect his energy policies have had on UK manufacturing.
Two thirds of two parent families receiving tax credits have an adult in them who doesn't work.
Looking at those tax free numbers, it isn't hard to see why.
If the public knew this, I suspect that moods would rapidly alter.
When tax credits were first introduced, I believe it was estimated they would cost £1.5bn a year. Now they have turned into this £30bn a year scheme. 1/3 of the budget of the whole NHS.
Exactly. There should be a minister on TV every day explaining that we can't afford to pay part time workers with kids £20k a year to work part time. I don't believe that most people who are not TC claimants are aware of the scale of the payments to individuals.
Until a couple of years ago I thought that tax credits were an increased personal allowance for working parents, to encourage them back to work. I can't be the the only one with that impression.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indee
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
How do you think the English felt then when the PM was Brown and the Chancellor Darling, both Scots!
Poor diddums, 2 people out of the whole government were Scottish. It must have been terrible for you.
Plus Murphy, Reid and Alexander and many more and more English voters voted Tory than Labour in 2005 even if Labour won more seats
Blair is a Scot, although he pretends to be English. In fact the whole ghastly New Labour regime was disproportionately Scottish.
Cameron is also of Scottish ancestry, just look at his surname. We have not had a fully English PM since Major
A basic Tory problem with tax credits is a lack of clear message. I think that most people sense that Osborne thinks the cuts are a good thing and he is being dragged reluctantly to watering them down. That prevents a "Sorry, we got it wrong, we're listening and will change it" strategy from working. If, conversely, they wanted to persuade people that their strategy was right and they are merely compromising as necessary to get it through, people would understand the tactics, though it would reinforce the "nasty" image in some floating voter minds, and they could hope to look "nasty but comptent", which arguably is what won the election for them.
Currently they have the worst of both worlds - they aren't any longer saying the cuts are a good thing, and they aren't offering a clear alternative, but punting it to the autumn statement for two uncomfortable weeks. As a result, the polling on the issue has worsened markedly from the initially muffled picture.
Leaving aside political advantage, the real world issue which even hardened Conservatives would I'd think be able to accept is that nobody except the extremely rich can easily weather a sudden £1300/month drop in income, whether it's justified in principle or not. People adjust to what income they have and take mortgages, buy clothes, plan family budgets etc. accordingly. So it simply doesn't help to say "Ha, we've just noticed that you're getting an unreasonable amount, and we're going to take it all away next spring".
£1300 a month Nick ?!
Just how fucking much are people being paid for their kids that the drop is that much !! No wonder we won't hit our emissions targets by 2050...
You keep making the assumption that tax credits are ONLY paid to people with kids.
I have no kids, but I received tax credits for a while when I was too ill to work full-time, but wanted to work a couple of afternoons a week. Had the tax credits system not been there, I would've just stayed on benefits, because the salary I was receiving for that couple of afternoons' work was nowhere near enough to live on.
Exactly..those in Scotland deemed to be Scottish enough, voted to stay in the Union..get over it..
Richard , you seem obsessed by it and all bitter and twisted, you should heed your own advice. I am perfectly OK with the result, pity the same cannot be said about yourself.
Lying or deluded?
Richard would need to tell you that
Would he know if you're lying to us or to yourself? You plainly aren't happy with the result and are unwilling to accept it and move on.
Would the Corbynite left be willing to swallow the huge loss of defence jobs that its suggested human rights policy would entail? There are already stories about possible loss of Saudi contracts as a result of the cancellation of this prison contract. Seats with defence interests would be mad to vote labour in 2020. In the same way, seats with car building interests would be mad to vote Leave in the referendum.
My sales in the Automotive industry has crashed over the last few months. No new projects / investments are taking place or are planned. The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments. Not surprising really.
P.S. I am not talking about "software".
Is that the same UK automotive industry you said would be shut down if the UK didn't join the Euro ?
"The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments."
I can tell you from where I work that your statement isn't true.
Er...when did I say that ? I am not sure PB even existed in 1997. In fact, it was Brown / Balls who made sure that the UK did not join the Euro.
The same lies have been peddled for the last thirty years:
1985 - "If the UK doesn't join the ERM the car factories will shut down, there will be no inward investment, the City will relocate to Frankfurt and three million jobs will be lost"
1992 - "If the UK leaves the ERM the car factories will shut down, there will be no inward investment, the City will relocate to Frankfurt and three million jobs will be lost."
2000 - "If the UK doesn't join the Euro the car factories will shut down, there will be no inward investment, the City will relocate to Frankfurt and three million jobs will be lost."
2015 - "If the UK leaves the EU the car factories will shut down, there will be no inward investment, the City will relocate to Frankfurt and three million jobs will be lost."
A basic Tory problem with tax credits is a lack of clear message. I think that most people sense that Osborne thinks the cuts are a good thing and he is being dragged reluctantly to watering them down. That prevents a "Sorry, we got it wrong, we're listening and will change it" strategy from working. If, conversely, they wanted to persuade people that their strategy was right and they are merely compromising as necessary to get it through, people would understand the tactics, though it would reinforce the "nasty" image in some floating voter minds, and they could hope to look "nasty but comptent", which arguably is what won the election for them.
Currently they have the worst of both worlds - they aren't any longer saying the cuts are a good thing, and they aren't offering a clear alternative, but punting it to the autumn statement for two uncomfortable weeks. As a result, the polling on the issue has worsened markedly from the initially muffled picture.
Leaving aside political advantage, the real world issue which even hardened Conservatives would I'd think be able to accept is that nobody except the extremely rich can easily weather a sudden £1300/month drop in income, whether it's justified in principle or not. People adjust to what income they have and take mortgages, buy clothes, plan family budgets etc. accordingly. So it simply doesn't help to say "Ha, we've just noticed that you're getting an unreasonable amount, and we're going to take it all away next spring".
£1300 a month Nick ?!
Just how fucking much are people being paid for their kids that the drop is that much !! No wonder we won't hit our emissions targets by 2050...
You keep making the assumption that tax credits are ONLY paid to people with kids.
I have no kids, but I received tax credits for a while when I was too ill to work full-time, but wanted to work a couple of afternoons a week. Had the tax credits system not been there, I would've just stayed on benefits, because the salary I was receiving for that couple of afternoons' work was nowhere near enough to live on.
Danny, that is what a tax credits system is supposed to be for. Not the £30bn monster it has become.
The first poll after the 2010 election that didn't have a Con lead was published on 15/8/10 by ICM, reporting Con 37, Lab 37, LD 18. There were two other tied polls before the first that had a Labour lead, by YouGov on 27/9/10, reporting Lab 40, Con 39, LD 12. During October 2010, the margins varied between a 7-point Con lead and a 3-point one for Lab but most were in the range of Lab +1 to Con +3.
Now, we can be sceptical of the methodology of the time, and of pollsters long since departed (that Lab +3 was from Angus Reid), and we can note that far fewer polls are being published than was the case five years ago, but the fact remains that nearly six months into the parliament, not only has no pollster produced one showing level-pegging, never mind with a Labour lead, but that the smallest Con lead is +4 and that ComRes is still pumping out scores with Con topside of 40 and double-digits ahead of Labour.
It might be an interesting market on when the first Lab lead will appear.
For reference, the first opposition-ahead polls in previous parliaments were:
1979-83: 18/06/79 - 6 weeks (the first poll of the parliament!) 1983-87: 13/02/84 - 8 months 1987-92: 18/04/88 - 10 months 1992-97: 28/07/92 - 4½ months 1997-2001: 15/09/00 - 3 years, 4 months 2001-05: 26/06/03 - 2 years 2005-10: 08/12/05 - 7 months 2010-15: 27/09/10 - 5 months
So historically, although there's nothing too significant about an opposition party going this long without a lead, it's perhaps notable that we are into the period of 5-10 months when the first crossover usually appears.
If Corbyn is Labour's IDS the first Labour poll lead should appear in 2017 i.e. a few months before he is deposed anyway. IDS had a handful of poll leads in 2003, although Labour led on average, before he was toppled in October after the Brent East by election
The Conservatives topped the poll and made big gains at both the 2002 and 2003 local elections.
At the moment it seems unlikely that Labour will match that next May.
A basic Tory problem with tax credits is a lack of clear message. I think that most people sense that Osborne thinks the cuts are a good thing and he is being dragged reluctantly to watering them down. That prevents a "Sorry, we got it wrong, we're listening and will change it" strategy from working. If, conversely, they wanted to persuade people that their strategy was right and they are merely compromising as necessary to get it through, people would understand the tactics, though it would reinforce the "nasty" image in some floating voter minds, and they could hope to look "nasty but comptent", which arguably is what won the election for them.
Currently they have the worst of both worlds - they aren't any longer saying the cuts are a good thing, and they aren't offering a clear alternative, but punting it to the autumn statement for two uncomfortable weeks. As a result, the polling on the issue has worsened markedly from the initially muffled picture.
Leaving aside political advantage, the real world issue which even hardened Conservatives would I'd think be able to accept is that nobody except the extremely rich can easily weather a sudden £1300/month drop in income, whether it's justified in principle or not. People adjust to what income they have and take mortgages, buy clothes, plan family budgets etc. accordingly. So it simply doesn't help to say "Ha, we've just noticed that you're getting an unreasonable amount, and we're going to take it all away next spring".
£1300 a month Nick ?!
Just how fucking much are people being paid for their kids that the drop is that much !! No wonder we won't hit our emissions targets by 2050...
You keep making the assumption that tax credits are ONLY paid to people with kids.
I have no kids, but I received tax credits for a while when I was too ill to work full-time, but wanted to work a couple of afternoons a week. Had the tax credits system not been there, I would've just stayed on benefits, because the salary I was receiving for that couple of afternoons' work was nowhere near enough to live on.
Honestly, that sounds like a great use of tax credits and how the system is supposed to work. Ensure that people stay in work during times when they are unable to work full time. Can't you see that the system we have today is not achieving this aim. It keeps people in part time work and subsidises wages for corporations at a cost of £30bn per year for the taxpayer. I wish there was an easy way to reform tax credits, but there isn't. Look at the figures posted below, you can see that people are turning tax credits into a way of life, not just a temporary way of helping out in a tough situation or ensuring that in hard times part time work pays better than unemployment.
"......Were Britain outside the EU, could not Blair or Brown have introduced their own equivalent of working time directives, part-time workers rights, etc. etc.?"
It is important we don't trade in markets where people are exploited which is why it's better if the same rules are applied in all places we trade and we know what those rules are. As Phillipe Stark said 'if you buy a microwave for £20 you can be sure it was made by a slave'
"......Were Britain outside the EU, could not Blair or Brown have introduced their own equivalent of working time directives, part-time workers rights, etc. etc.?"
It is important we don't trade in markets where people are exploited which is why it's better if the same rules are applied in all places we trade and we know what those rules are. As Phillipe Stark said 'if you buy a microwave for £20 you can be sure it was made by a slave'
Does the EU sell us microwaves?
Does anyone care when they choose a microwave, if it's made in Slovenia or the Phillipines?
"......Were Britain outside the EU, could not Blair or Brown have introduced their own equivalent of working time directives, part-time workers rights, etc. etc.?"
It is important we don't trade in markets where people are exploited which is why it's better if the same rules are applied in all places we trade and we know what those rules are. As Phillipe Stark said 'if you buy a microwave for £20 you can be sure it was made by a slave'
Weren't the 'This is what a feminist looks like' Tshirts made in a sweat shop ?
The first poll after the 2010 election that didn't have a Con lead was published on 15/8/10 by ICM, reporting Con 37, Lab 37, LD 18. There were two other tied polls before the first that had a Labour lead, by YouGov on 27/9/10, reporting Lab 40, Con 39, LD 12. During October 2010, the margins varied between a 7-point Con lead and a 3-point one for Lab but most were in the range of Lab +1 to Con +3.
Now, we can be sceptical of the methodology of the time, and of pollsters long since departed (that Lab +3 was from Angus Reid), and we can note that far fewer polls are being published than was the case five years ago, but the fact remains that nearly six months into the parliament, not only has no pollster produced one showing level-pegging, never mind with a Labour lead, but that the smallest Con lead is +4 and that ComRes is still pumping out scores with Con topside of 40 and double-digits ahead of Labour.
It might be an interesting market on when the first Lab lead will appear.
For reference, the first opposition-ahead polls in previous parliaments were:
1979-83: 18/06/79 - 6 weeks (the first poll of the parliament!) 1983-87: 13/02/84 - 8 months 1987-92: 18/04/88 - 10 months 1992-97: 28/07/92 - 4½ months 1997-2001: 15/09/00 - 3 years, 4 months 2001-05: 26/06/03 - 2 years 2005-10: 08/12/05 - 7 months 2010-15: 27/09/10 - 5 months
So historically, although there's nothing too significant about an opposition party going this long without a lead, it's perhaps notable that we are into the period of 5-10 months when the first crossover usually appears.
If Corbyn is Labour's IDS the first Labour poll lead should appear in 2017 i.e. a few months before he is deposed anyway. IDS had a handful of poll leads in 2003, although Labour led on average, before he was toppled in October after the Brent East by election
The Conservatives topped the poll and made big gains at both the 2002 and 2003 local elections.
At the moment it seems unlikely that Labour will match that next May.
Yes which makes it ever more vital for Corbyn Khan is elected London Mayor, in the IDS years the Mayor was Ken Livingstone so that would offset any council election setbacks
Even more alarmingly, she is viewed as a 'realist'. What peculiar fantasies are the others indulging in to make her, of all people, seem like a realist? They must at the very least involve pigs in some capacity or other (Ashcroft showed what is possible).
It's as though he wants an SNP/Liberal Democrat alliance to form the official opposition.
That's absolutely terrifying if accurate (and usually even the sketchwriters at the Spectator are pretty switched on, so I'm assuming it is).
This paragraph is particularly unbelievable:
The thing is, you see, that “Take a fresh look” has been the unofficial theme of every meeting of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party since, oh, at least 1997. When you are reduced to pinching lines from the Scottish Tories you are probably in a position similar to the lost traveller seeking directions to Limerick who was told “Well, I wouldn’t start from here”.
I think their only chance of staying relevant is a UDI from London and running themselves in a loose alliance with Labour, like the SDLP, but making their own policy and strategy decisions.
Labour has to start again in Scotland. The obvious thing to do is to tack to the left and call the SNP's bluff over things such as income tax and tax credits. It may take some time, but come the first election in an independent Scotland - 2024 is my guess - the party may be very well positioned to benefit from the SNP's implosion.
Most Scots polled do not want another referendum for at least ten years
Let's see how they feel after another Tory landslide in 2020.
Another landslide? I was not aware that an overall majority of 12 amounted to a landslide. A tight squeak more likely!
The first poll after the 2010 election that didn't have a Con lead was published on 15/8/10 by ICM, reporting Con 37, Lab 37, LD 18. There were two other tied polls before the first that had a Labour lead, by YouGov on 27/9/10, reporting Lab 40, Con 39, LD 12. During October 2010, the margins varied between a 7-point Con lead and a 3-point one for Lab but most were in the range of Lab +1 to Con +3.
Now, we can be sceptical of the methodology of the time, and of pollsters long since departed (that Lab +3 was from Angus Reid), and we can note that far fewer polls are being published than was the case five years ago, but the fact remains that nearly six months into the parliament, not only has no pollster produced one showing level-pegging, never mind with a Labour lead, but that the smallest Con lead is +4 and that ComRes is still pumping out scores with Con topside of 40 and double-digits ahead of Labour.
It might be an interesting market on when the first Lab lead will appear.
For reference, the first opposition-ahead polls in previous parliaments were:
1979-83: 18/06/79 - 6 weeks (the first poll of the parliament!) 1983-87: 13/02/84 - 8 months 1987-92: 18/04/88 - 10 months 1992-97: 28/07/92 - 4½ months 1997-2001: 15/09/00 - 3 years, 4 months 2001-05: 26/06/03 - 2 years 2005-10: 08/12/05 - 7 months 2010-15: 27/09/10 - 5 months
So historically, although there's nothing too significant about an opposition party going this long without a lead, it's perhaps notable that we are into the period of 5-10 months when the first crossover usually appears.
If Corbyn is Labour's IDS the first Labour poll lead should appear in 2017 i.e. a few months before he is deposed anyway. IDS had a handful of poll leads in 2003, although Labour led on average, before he was toppled in October after the Brent East by election
At this stage in the 1987 Parliament the Tories had a 12% lead - effectively unchanged from the election six months earlier.
"......Were Britain outside the EU, could not Blair or Brown have introduced their own equivalent of working time directives, part-time workers rights, etc. etc.?"
It is important we don't trade in markets where people are exploited which is why it's better if the same rules are applied in all places we trade and we know what those rules are. As Phillipe Stark said 'if you buy a microwave for £20 you can be sure it was made by a slave'
That's an argument for global agreements, not continental ones.
The first poll after the 2010 election that didn't have a Con lead was published on 15/8/10 by ICM, reporting Con 37, Lab 37, LD 18. There were two other tied polls before the first that had a Labour lead, by YouGov on 27/9/10, reporting Lab 40, Con 39, LD 12. During October 2010, the margins varied between a 7-point Con lead and a 3-point one for Lab but most were in the range of Lab +1 to Con +3.
Now, we can be sceptical of the methodology of the time, and of pollsters long since departed (that Lab +3 was from Angus Reid), and we can note that far fewer polls are being published than was the case five years ago, but the fact remains that nearly six months into the parliament, not only has no pollster produced one showing level-pegging, never mind with a Labour lead, but that the smallest Con lead is +4 and that ComRes is still pumping out scores with Con topside of 40 and double-digits ahead of Labour.
It might be an interesting market on when the first Lab lead will appear.
For reference, the first opposition-ahead polls in previous parliaments were:
1979-83: 18/06/79 - 6 weeks (the first poll of the parliament!) 1983-87: 13/02/84 - 8 months 1987-92: 18/04/88 - 10 months 1992-97: 28/07/92 - 4½ months 1997-2001: 15/09/00 - 3 years, 4 months 2001-05: 26/06/03 - 2 years 2005-10: 08/12/05 - 7 months 2010-15: 27/09/10 - 5 months
So historically, although there's nothing too significant about an opposition party going this long without a lead, it's perhaps notable that we are into the period of 5-10 months when the first crossover usually appears.
If Corbyn is Labour's IDS the first Labour poll lead should appear in 2017 i.e. a few months before he is deposed anyway. IDS had a handful of poll leads in 2003, although Labour led on average, before he was toppled in October after the Brent East by election
At this stage in the 1987 Parliament the Tories had a 12% lead - effectively unchanged from the election six months earlier.
BMG yesterday had a 6% lead so effectively unchanged from May
Would the Corbynite left be willing to swallow the huge loss of defence jobs that its suggested human rights policy would entail? There are already stories about possible loss of Saudi contracts as a result of the cancellation of this prison contract. Seats with defence interests would be mad to vote labour in 2020. In the same way, seats with car building interests would be mad to vote Leave in the referendum.
My sales in the Automotive industry has crashed over the last few months. No new projects / investments are taking place or are planned. The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments. Not surprising really.
P.S. I am not talking about "software".
Is that the same UK automotive industry you said would be shut down if the UK didn't join the Euro ?
"The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments."
I can tell you from where I work that your statement isn't true.
Er...when did I say that ? I am not sure PB even existed in 1997. In fact, it was Brown / Balls who made sure that the UK did not join the Euro.
The same lies have been peddled for the last thirty years:
1985 - "If the UK doesn't join the ERM the car factories will shut down, there will be no inward investment, the City will relocate to Frankfurt and three million jobs will be lost"
1992 - "If the UK leaves the ERM the car factories will shut down, there will be no inward investment, the City will relocate to Frankfurt and three million jobs will be lost."
2000 - "If the UK doesn't join the Euro the car factories will shut down, there will be no inward investment, the City will relocate to Frankfurt and three million jobs will be lost."
2015 - "If the UK leaves the EU the car factories will shut down, there will be no inward investment, the City will relocate to Frankfurt and three million jobs will be lost."
A basic Tory problem with tax credits is a lack of clear message. I think that most people sense that Osborne thinks the cuts are a good thing and he is being dragged reluctantly to watering them down. That prevents a "Sorry, we got it wrong, we're listening and will change it" strategy from working. If, conversely, they wanted to persuade people that their strategy was right and they are merely compromising as necessary to get it through, people would understand the tactics, though it would reinforce the "nasty" image in some floating voter minds, and they could hope to look "nasty but comptent", which arguably is what won the election for them.
Currently they have the worst of both worlds - they aren't any longer saying the cuts are a good thing, and they aren't offering a clear alternative, but punting it to the autumn statement for two uncomfortable weeks. As a result, the polling on the issue has worsened markedly from the initially muffled picture.
Leaviext spring".
£1300 a month Nick ?!
Just how fucking much are people being paid for their kids that the drop is that much !! No wonder we won't hit our emissions targets by 2050...
You keep making the assumption that tax credits are ONLY paid to people with kids.
I have no kids, but I received tax credits for a while when I was too ill to work full-time, but wanted to work a couple of afternoons a week. Had the tax credits system not been there, I would've just stayed on benefits, because the salary I was receiving for that couple of afternoons' work was nowhere near enough to live on.
Honestly, that sounds like a great use of tax credits and how the system is supposed to work. Ensure that people stay in work during times when they are unable to work full time. Can't you see that the system we have today is not achieving this aim. It keeps people in part time work and subsidises wages for corporations at a cost of £30bn per year for the taxpayer. I wish there was an easy way to reform tax credits, but there isn't. Look at the figures posted below, you can see that people are turning tax credits into a way of life, not just a temporary way of helping out in a tough situation or ensuring that in hard times part time work pays better than unemployment.
If Tax Credits were so generous then why did the last Government increase Child Tax Credit by £450
My sales in the Automotive industry has crashed over the last few months. No new projects / investments are taking place or are planned. The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments. Not surprising really.
P.S. I am not talking about "software".
Is that the same UK automotive industry you said would be shut down if the UK didn't join the Euro ?
"The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments."
I can tell you from where I work that your statement isn't true.
From where you work you probably don't see a recession. Not coming, we are in it.
Manufacturing: Q1 -0.1% Q2 -0.5% Q3 -0.3%
Source: ONS
"However, output in the manufacturing sector declined by 0.3%.
"The slowdown is being led by the manufacturing sector, which is seeing a renewed recession as output has now fallen for three consecutive quarters, suffering a 0.3% decline in the three months to September," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at research firm Markit.
"Manufacturing output has so far fallen 0.9% this year. Producers are struggling as weak demand in many overseas markets, notably China and other emerging nations, is being exacerbated by the appreciation of sterling." "
These are facts. Not some output from a delusional character.
I work in manufacturing in Yorkshire so I have rather more contact with it than someone who lives in Margo Ledbetter's part of the world.
And if you look back to last Saturday's DH thread you'll see that I was pointing out that the UK was now in its THIRD manufacturing recession since Osborne proclaimed the 'March of the Makers'.
This government has been pretty crap for manufacturing but even so not as crap as Labour was.
But I've never heard you complain about the way Blair and Brown shat on the manufacturing sector from 2000 onwards.
Nor have you ever blamed EdM for the disasterous effect his energy policies have had on UK manufacturing.
Bollocks ! Manufacturing reached its peak under Labour. In the 5 years since the credit crunch ended the Tories have dismally failed to even reach that. WE are ,in fact, 5% below the previous peak.
Manufacturing is on its knees. Yesterday, Sterling shot up again ! Another few factories will probably be shut down.
My sales in the Automotive industry has crashed over the last few months. No new projects / investments are taking place or are planned. The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments. Not surprising really.
P.S. I am not talking about "software".
Is that the same UK automotive industry you said would be shut down if the UK didn't join the Euro ?
"The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments."
I can tell you from where I work that your statement isn't true.
From where you work you probably don't see a recession. Not coming, we are in it.
Manufacturing: Q1 -0.1% Q2 -0.5% Q3 -0.3%
Source: ONS
"However, output in the manufacturing sector declined by 0.3%.
"The slowdown is being led by the manufacturing sector, which is seeing a renewed recession as output has now fallen for three consecutive quarters, suffering a 0.3% decline in the three months to September," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at research firm Markit.
"Manufacturing output has so far fallen 0.9% this year. Producers are struggling as weak demand in many overseas markets, notably China and other emerging nations, is being exacerbated by the appreciation of sterling." "
These are facts. Not some output from a delusional character.
I work in manufacturing in Yorkshire so I have rather more contact with it than someone who lives in Margo Ledbetter's part of the world.
And if you look back to last Saturday's DH thread you'll see that I was pointing out that the UK was now in its THIRD manufacturing recession since Osborne proclaimed the 'March of the Makers'.
This government has been pretty crap for manufacturing but even so not as crap as Labour was.
But I've never heard you complain about the way Blair and Brown shat on the manufacturing sector from 2000 onwards.
Nor have you ever blamed EdM for the disasterous effect his energy policies have had on UK manufacturing.
Bollocks ! Manufacturing reached its peak under Labour. In the 5 years since the credit crunch ended the Tories have dismally failed to even reach that. WE are ,in fact, 5% below the previous peak.
Manufacturing is on its knees. Yesterday, Sterling shot up again ! Another few factories will probably be shut down.
So tell us what Labour did to bring about this manufacturing peak, rather than it just being a hangover from the last competent Government.
Working Time Directive..I am just about to embark on a 55..66 hour working week..which is considered normal in the TV industry
Could be worse Richard - you could be a teacher. That would be considered a fairly light week for a classroom teacher in most schools!
Most teachers finish work by 4pm that is only including marking and lesson prep at home. Teachers also get longer holidays even if not a particularly high wage. Surgeons, barristers, City bankers and lawyers, farmers and small businessmen often work even longer hours
Working Time Directive..I am just about to embark on a 55..66 hour working week..which is considered normal in the TV industry
Could be worse Richard - you could be a teacher. That would be considered a fairly light week for a classroom teacher in most schools!
Most teachers finish work by 4pm that is only including marking and lesson prep at home. Teachers also get longer holidays even if not a particularly high wage. Surgeons, barristers, City bankers and lawyers, farmers and small businessmen often work even longer hours
Marking and lesson prep is not work?!!! Also, the holidays - do you mean those things in the summer where I had to go in to work pretty much every day apart from when I was in Scotland, and was rewriting all my lesson plans?
How do you think the English felt then when the PM was Brown and the Chancellor Darling, both Scots!
Fascinating how quickly Unionists discard the concept of Britishness when it suits them.
Even more fascinating how Nationalists forget any responsibility on the part of Scotland in the Governance of the United Kingdom over the last 20 years.
I can tell you how I felt about the PM and Chancellor being Scottish - nothing. If they have the talent, good for them.
Working Time Directive..I am just about to embark on a 55..66 hour working week..which is considered normal in the TV industry
Could be worse Richard - you could be a teacher. That would be considered a fairly light week for a classroom teacher in most schools!
Most teachers finish work by 4pm that is only including marking and lesson prep at home. Teachers also get longer holidays even if not a particularly high wage. Surgeons, barristers, City bankers and lawyers, farmers and small businessmen often work even longer hours
Marking and lesson prep is not work?!!! Also, the holidays - do you mean those things in the summer where I had to go in to work pretty much every day apart from when I was in Scotland, and was rewriting all my lesson plans?
Yes but then so would be a barrister prepping a case at home etc. Teachers get six weeks in the summer holidays and two to three weeks at Easter and Christmas plus half term, a significantly higher level of holiday than the average member of the population
Working Time Directive..I am just about to embark on a 55..66 hour working week..which is considered normal in the TV industry
Could be worse Richard - you could be a teacher. That would be considered a fairly light week for a classroom teacher in most schools!
Most teachers finish work by 4pm that is only including marking and lesson prep at home. Teachers also get longer holidays even if not a particularly high wage. Surgeons, barristers, City bankers and lawyers, farmers and small businessmen often work even longer hours
Marking and lesson prep is not work?!!! Also, the holidays - do you mean those things in the summer where I had to go in to work pretty much every day apart from when I was in Scotland, and was rewriting all my lesson plans?
Yes but then so would be a barrister prepping a case at home etc. Teachers get six weeks in the holidays and two to three weeks at Easter and Christmas plus half term, a significantly higher level of holiday than the average member of the population
Yes but barristers are not in court all the time HYUFD, or even meeting clients! I think you will also find that courts sit for slightly less time than schools teach. The 'average' member of the population does not have to take nearly as much work home as teachers do. Speaking for myself, I try to mark in school and plan at home. Which means I am frequently at school until 7.30 at night, or on one memorable recent week, 11.30 at night (in case anyone is wondering, I am senior enough to be a keyholder).
From where you work you probably don't see a recession. Not coming, we are in it.
Manufacturing: Q1 -0.1% Q2 -0.5% Q3 -0.3%
Source: ONS
"However, output in the manufacturing sector declined by 0.3%.
"The slowdown is being led by the manufacturing sector, which is seeing a renewed recession as output has now fallen for three consecutive quarters, suffering a 0.3% decline in the three months to September," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at research firm Markit.
"Manufacturing output has so far fallen 0.9% this year. Producers are struggling as weak demand in many overseas markets, notably China and other emerging nations, is being exacerbated by the appreciation of sterling." "
These are facts. Not some output from a delusional character.
I work in manufacturing in Yorkshire so I have rather more contact with it than someone who lives in Margo Ledbetter's part of the world.
And if you look back to last Saturday's DH thread you'll see that I was pointing out that the UK was now in its THIRD manufacturing recession since Osborne proclaimed the 'March of the Makers'.
This government has been pretty crap for manufacturing but even so not as crap as Labour was.
But I've never heard you complain about the way Blair and Brown shat on the manufacturing sector from 2000 onwards.
Nor have you ever blamed EdM for the disasterous effect his energy policies have had on UK manufacturing.
Bollocks ! Manufacturing reached its peak under Labour. In the 5 years since the credit crunch ended the Tories have dismally failed to even reach that. WE are ,in fact, 5% below the previous peak.
Manufacturing is on its knees. Yesterday, Sterling shot up again ! Another few factories will probably be shut down.
Bollocks. Manufacturing reached its peak back in 2000 after Labour inherited a strongly growing sector.
Then Labour left it in close to ruin after a decade of tax rises, higher energy costs and regulation imposition.
And what did Labour chose to do in the recession - bail out the banks (and the bankers' bonuses) and cut VAT on imported consumer tat while leaving hundreds of factories to shut down.
That you don't condemn Blair and Brown and Miliband for that exposes you as a hypocrite.
Scottish Tories voted 90% plus for the union in indyref, had Scottish Labour got its voters to do the same No would have won a landslide
Scottish Labour lost most of its base because it supported No. I would imagine the vast majority of current Labour voters in Scotland support the union.
Yes but it was Labour's half hearted pro union campaign with a few honourable exceptions like Jim Murphy which failed to enthuse its voters unlike Ruth Davidson's positive pro Union campaign
I disagree. Labour's problem was that it campaigned on the same side as the Tories at a time when Westminster was (and is) held in contempt by most Scottish voters. Labour contributed greatly to that feeling of contempt by taking Scotland so much for granted, of course.
Referendums are cross party as EU ref will be
But it was perceived as a partnership with the Tories. Labour also must not make the same mistake in the EU referendum. By all means support staying IN but do not get on the same platform as Cameron / Osborne.
If any Tory election strategists are reading this, Surby has just given you a fantastic idea - call for he Labour leadership to join you in the 'in campaign' - if you win, fine, if you lose, Labour voters will flock to UKIP in droves in Northern seats.
Win win for a Continuity Cameron or Paterson led Tory party.
Incidentally, why is it only the Tory party that continually manages to survive split opinions within the party.....
Is that the same UK automotive industry you said would be shut down if the UK didn't join the Euro ?
"The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments."
I can tell you from where I work that your statement isn't true.
Er...when did I say that ? I am not sure PB even existed in 1997. In fact, it was Brown / Balls who made sure that the UK did not join the Euro.
The same lies have been peddled for the last thirty years:
1985 - "If the UK doesn't join the ERM the car factories will shut down, there will be no inward investment, the City will relocate to Frankfurt and three million jobs will be lost"
1992 - "If the UK leaves the ERM the car factories will shut down, there will be no inward investment, the City will relocate to Frankfurt and three million jobs will be lost."
2000 - "If the UK doesn't join the Euro the car factories will shut down, there will be no inward investment, the City will relocate to Frankfurt and three million jobs will be lost."
2015 - "If the UK leaves the EU the car factories will shut down, there will be no inward investment, the City will relocate to Frankfurt and three million jobs will be lost."
When did I [ meaning me ] say those words?
Are you really trying to claim that you didn't say similar ???
The first poll after the 2010 election that didn't have a Con lead was published on 15/8/10 by ICM, reporting Con 37, Lab 37, LD 18. There were two other tied polls before the first that had a Labour lead, by YouGov on 27/9/10, reporting Lab 40, Con 39, LD 12. During October 2010, the margins varied between a 7-point Con lead and a 3-point one for Lab but most were in the range of Lab +1 to Con +3.
Now, we can be sceptical of the methodology of the time, and of pollsters long since departed (that Lab +3 was from Angus Reid), and we can note that far fewer polls are being published than was the case five years ago, but the fact remains that nearly six months into the parliament, not only has no pollster produced one showing level-pegging, never mind with a Labour lead, but that the smallest Con lead is +4 and that ComRes is still pumping out scores with Con topside of 40 and double-digits ahead of Labour.
It might be an interesting market on when the first Lab lead will appear.
For reference, the first opposition-ahead polls in previous parliaments were:
1979-83: 18/06/79 - 6 weeks (the first poll of the parliament!) 1983-87: 13/02/84 - 8 months 1987-92: 18/04/88 - 10 months 1992-97: 28/07/92 - 4½ months 1997-2001: 15/09/00 - 3 years, 4 months 2001-05: 26/06/03 - 2 years 2005-10: 08/12/05 - 7 months 2010-15: 27/09/10 - 5 months
So historically, although there's nothing too significant about an opposition party going this long without a lead, it's perhaps notable that we are into the period of 5-10 months when the first crossover usually appears.
If Corbyn is Labour's IDS the first Labour poll lead should appear in 2017 i.e. a few months before he is deposed anyway. IDS had a handful of poll leads in 2003, although Labour led on average, before he was toppled in October after the Brent East by election
At this stage in the 1987 Parliament the Tories had a 12% lead - effectively unchanged from the election six months earlier.
BMG yesterday had a 6% lead so effectively unchanged from May
Yes - but the lead was much smaller from the outset!
Scottish Tories voted 90% plus for the union in indyref, had Scottish Labour got its voters to do the same No would have won a landslide
Scottish Labour lost most of its base because it supported No. I would imagine the vast majority of current Labour voters in Scotland support the union.
Yes but it was Labour's half hearted pro union campaign with a few honourable exceptions like Jim Murphy which failed to enthuse its voters unlike Ruth Davidson's positive pro Union campaign
I disagree. Labour's problem was that it campaigned on the same side as the Tories at a time when Westminster was (and is) held in contempt by most Scottish voters. Labour contributed greatly to that feeling of contempt by taking Scotland so much for granted, of course.
Referendums are cross party as EU ref will be
But it was perceived as a partnership with the Tories. Labour also must not make the same mistake in the EU referendum. By all means support staying IN but do not get on the same platform as Cameron / Osborne.
If any Tory election strategists are reading this, Surby has just given you a fantastic idea - call for he Labour leadership to join you in the 'in campaign' - if you win, fine, if you lose, Labour voters will flock to UKIP in droves in Northern seats.
Win win for a Continuity Cameron or Paterson led Tory party.
Incidentally, why is it only the Tory party that continually manages to survive split opinions within the party.....
Wrong on both counts. That would see some Tory Out voters go to UKIP if In and you forgot the splits after Peel
The first poll after the 2010 election that didn't have a Con lead was published on 15/8/10 by ICM, reporting Con 37, Lab 37, LD 18. There were two other tied polls before the first that had a Labour lead, by YouGov on 27/9/10, reporting Lab 40, Con 39, LD 12. During October 2010, the margins varied between a 7-point Con lead and a 3-point one for Lab but most were in the range of Lab +1 to Con +3.
Now, we can be sceptical of the methodology of the time, and of pollsters long since departed (that Lab +3 was from Angus Reid), and we can note that far fewer polls are being published than was the case five years ago, but the fact remains that nearly six months into the parliament, not only has no pollster produced one showing level-pegging, never mind with a Labour lead, but that the smallest Con lead is +4 and that ComRes is still pumping out scores with Con topside of 40 and double-digits ahead of Labour.
It might be an interesting market on when the first Lab lead will appear.
For reference, the first opposition-ahead polls in previous parliaments were:
1979-83: 18/06/79 - 6 weeks (the first poll of the parliament!) 1983-87: 13/02/84 - 8 months 1987-92: 18/04/88 - 10 months 1992-97: 28/07/92 - 4½ months 1997-2001: 15/09/00 - 3 years, 4 months 2001-05: 26/06/03 - 2 years 2005-10: 08/12/05 - 7 months 2010-15: 27/09/10 - 5 months
So historically, although there's nothing too significant about an opposition party going this long without a lead, it's perhaps notable that we are into the period of 5-10 months when the first crossover usually appears.
If Corbyn is Labour's IDS the first Labour poll lead should appear in 2017 i.e. a few months before he is deposed anyway. IDS had a handful of poll leads in 2003, although Labour led on average, before he was toppled in October after the Brent East by election
At this stage in the 1987 Parliament the Tories had a 12% lead - effectively unchanged from the election six months earlier.
BMG yesterday had a 6% lead so effectively unchanged from May
Yes - but the lead was much smaller from the outset!
How do you think the English felt then when the PM was Brown and the Chancellor Darling, both Scots!
Fascinating how quickly Unionists discard the concept of Britishness when it suits them.
Even more fascinating how Nationalists forget any responsibility on the part of Scotland in the Governance of the United Kingdom over the last 20 years.
I can tell you how I felt about the PM and Chancellor being Scottish - nothing. If they have the talent, good for them.
Thanks for letting me know how you feel. If I had the smarts to know what point you were trying to make, I'm sure it would be fascinating.
Comments
And Balls/EdM to Corbyn/McIRA
It doesn't sound like good news.
TB never pushed to join because he knew he couldn't win a referendum. He was, of course, pushed into conceding a referendum by Major, who in turn was pushed into it by Jimmy Goldsmith.
Together we are stronger !
You mean extreme right wingers, a handful no doubt
We will receive absolutely no benefits as I earn above £50k - and no, that doesn't make me rich.
It's something we have to factor in when making a decision on having kids. I don't see why others should have their family choices heavily subsidised at my (our) expense.
'£1300 a month Nick ?!
Just how fucking much are people being paid for their kids that the drop is that much !!'
That's the cost of New Labour buying votes for 13 years.
I've said it before on here but a senior government official was quoted shortly after 2010 as saying that Cameron regarded the rest of the world as a place to go on holiday. Prime ministers of imperial powers ruling the waves can perhaps get away with such recklessness. Leaders of very trade dependent middle sized nations cannot. Everyone assumes Cameron's legacy will be about the economy or the welfare state and it's scale. As with Blair it could well turn out to be foreign affairs. And the verdict may not be kind.
UKIP did relatively better with them
The first poll after the 2010 election that didn't have a Con lead was published on 15/8/10 by ICM, reporting Con 37, Lab 37, LD 18. There were two other tied polls before the first that had a Labour lead, by YouGov on 27/9/10, reporting Lab 40, Con 39, LD 12. During October 2010, the margins varied between a 7-point Con lead and a 3-point one for Lab but most were in the range of Lab +1 to Con +3.
Now, we can be sceptical of the methodology of the time, and of pollsters long since departed (that Lab +3 was from Angus Reid), and we can note that far fewer polls are being published than was the case five years ago, but the fact remains that nearly six months into the parliament, not only has no pollster produced one showing level-pegging, never mind with a Labour lead, but that the smallest Con lead is +4 and that ComRes is still pumping out scores with Con topside of 40 and double-digits ahead of Labour.
It might be an interesting market on when the first Lab lead will appear.
For reference, the first opposition-ahead polls in previous parliaments were:
1979-83: 18/06/79 - 6 weeks (the first poll of the parliament!)
1983-87: 13/02/84 - 8 months
1987-92: 18/04/88 - 10 months
1992-97: 28/07/92 - 4½ months
1997-2001: 15/09/00 - 3 years, 4 months
2001-05: 26/06/03 - 2 years
2005-10: 08/12/05 - 7 months
2010-15: 27/09/10 - 5 months
So historically, although there's nothing too significant about an opposition party going this long without a lead, it's perhaps notable that we are into the period of 5-10 months when the first crossover usually appears.
The average annualised WTC/CTC award for working recipients:
1 child: £6562 (+ Child Benefit £1076) = £7638 ( £636.50 pcm)
2 children: £9415 (+ £1788 CHB ) = £11203 ( £933.58 pcm)
3 children: £12339 (+ £2501 CHB) = £14840 ( £1236.67 pcm)
4 or more: £16451 ( + £3214 CHB) = £19665 ( £ 1638.75 pcm)
Two thirds of two parent families receiving tax credits have an adult in them who doesn't work.
Looking at those tax free numbers, it isn't hard to see why.
If the public knew this, I suspect that moods would rapidly alter.
Seemingly not just stupid but racist with a chip about immigrants.
And if you look back to last Saturday's DH thread you'll see that I was pointing out that the UK was now in its THIRD manufacturing recession since Osborne proclaimed the 'March of the Makers'.
This government has been pretty crap for manufacturing but even so not as crap as Labour was.
But I've never heard you complain about the way Blair and Brown shat on the manufacturing sector from 2000 onwards.
Nor have you ever blamed EdM for the disasterous effect his energy policies have had on UK manufacturing.
Until a couple of years ago I thought that tax credits were an increased personal allowance for working parents, to encourage them back to work. I can't be the the only one with that impression.
I have no kids, but I received tax credits for a while when I was too ill to work full-time, but wanted to work a couple of afternoons a week. Had the tax credits system not been there, I would've just stayed on benefits, because the salary I was receiving for that couple of afternoons' work was nowhere near enough to live on.
1985 - "If the UK doesn't join the ERM the car factories will shut down, there will be no inward investment, the City will relocate to Frankfurt and three million jobs will be lost"
1992 - "If the UK leaves the ERM the car factories will shut down, there will be no inward investment, the City will relocate to Frankfurt and three million jobs will be lost."
2000 - "If the UK doesn't join the Euro the car factories will shut down, there will be no inward investment, the City will relocate to Frankfurt and three million jobs will be lost."
2015 - "If the UK leaves the EU the car factories will shut down, there will be no inward investment, the City will relocate to Frankfurt and three million jobs will be lost."
At the moment it seems unlikely that Labour will match that next May.
"......Were Britain outside the EU, could not Blair or Brown have introduced their own equivalent of working time directives, part-time workers rights, etc. etc.?"
It is important we don't trade in markets where people are exploited which is why it's better if the same rules are applied in all places we trade and we know what those rules are. As Phillipe Stark said 'if you buy a microwave for £20 you can be sure it was made by a slave'
Does anyone care when they choose a microwave, if it's made in Slovenia or the Phillipines?
Ditto those of the Corbyn campaign.
Another landslide? I was not aware that an overall majority of 12 amounted to a landslide. A tight squeak more likely!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11965705/Greek-banking-system-found-to-have-14.5bn-black-hole.html
Manufacturing is on its knees. Yesterday, Sterling shot up again ! Another few factories will probably be shut down.
I can tell you how I felt about the PM and Chancellor being Scottish - nothing. If they have the talent, good for them.
Then Labour left it in close to ruin after a decade of tax rises, higher energy costs and regulation imposition.
And what did Labour chose to do in the recession - bail out the banks (and the bankers' bonuses) and cut VAT on imported consumer tat while leaving hundreds of factories to shut down.
That you don't condemn Blair and Brown and Miliband for that exposes you as a hypocrite.
Chelsea losing ... again... weird to come back to, especially with TSE having Coutinho in his scouse-laden team
Win win for a Continuity Cameron or Paterson led Tory party.
Incidentally, why is it only the Tory party that continually manages to survive split opinions within the party.....
But, I love my work so all the better....