An incomplete list of things we've been told by the establishment:
Kids Company is a deserving charity Jimmy Saville is a wonderful person (ditto many others) Nothing is happening in Rotherham (ditto many others) Stafford hospital is safe (ditto many others) The banks are well run Politicians expenses are honest Tower Hamlets elections are fair Saddam Hussein has WMD
Mr. JEO, if Out are smart, they'll point this out [ahem]. Immigration is a hot topic for lots of people who might otherwise be disinterested in the referendum.
Unless Cameron manages to surprise with a limit on free movement. Given the length of time renegotiation has been on the cards, I would be shocked if there's not a major win in Cameron's column that will make the headlines: something like a cap to EU immigration, double QMV or a red card system.
An incomplete list of things we've been told by the establishment:
Kids Company is a deserving charity Jimmy Saville is a wonderful person (ditto many others) Nothing is happening in Rotherham (ditto many others) Stafford hospital is safe (ditto many others) The banks are well run Politicians expenses are honest Tower Hamlets elections are fair Saddam Hussein has WMD
Pretty sure it was only the tower hamlets establishment and fellow travellers who told us their elections were fair, wasn't it?
O/T re tax credits.. never misunderstand the anger felt in some quarters, I have a disabled client who has no children, is a Labour supporter but whose venom at the "Tory cut" was close to apoplectic.
How many votes have changed as a result of her apoplectic anger? One suspects that were she not apoplectic about this, she'd find something else to spike her ire.
It must have been great to see the campaign from the inside, there was clearly a massive amount of work done behind the scenes that most of us will never know about, to hear this story from a year ago shows that was indeed the case.
Hope you wife is getting better after her bad accident.
Morning all.
Thanks for the kind words re the article and particularly to Mrs H.
I wouldn't want to overplay my contribution. I saw a little of the inside between October and December which was indeed interesting but apart from that one trip to London, the rest was a now-and-then e-mail conversation, though as I say, it did touch on a key theme.
That theme, however, was one put to me, not one I brought to others' attention. I did affirm my belief that it was real and sustaining, and as such implied it could be used for a campaign - but it wasn't my campaign in any way. You're right about which poster it was.
Mrs H has had a long recovery and while that's still ongoing, she'll probably never get full mobility back (among various other injuries, she suffered a shattered kneecap which has left her with restricted flexibility in that leg). It's the reason why for about the first three months of the year, my political activity was more-or-less restricted solely to writing my Saturday pieces here.
Very sorry to hear that, David.
Very best wishes to you and your wife, and I really do hope she does make as close to a full recovery as possible.
This should be a resignation issue for Letwin. During a time of austerity, he was handing over taxpayer money to a charity that he knew had flagrant abuse.
Agreed, with the caveat that he should resign only once those running the charity are charged or convicted of an offence relating to the 'misallocation' of either charitable or public funds. Any scenario that sees govt ministers being held to account while those in charge of the 'charity' or their regulator gets away with it is not reasonable.
This should be a resignation issue for Letwin. During a time of austerity, he was handing over taxpayer money to a charity that he knew had flagrant abuse.
Its another example of austerity and rule following only applying to the 'little people'.
Tht Cameron still sees nothing wrong in handing over the money shows he has the same mentality.
This should be a resignation issue for Letwin. During a time of austerity, he was handing over taxpayer money to a charity that he knew had flagrant abuse.
If Letwin had to resign over every gaffe he'd made he'd never have got out of the starting blocks.
It must have been great to see the campaign from the inside, there was clearly a massive amount of work done behind the scenes that most of us will never know about, to hear this story from a year ago shows that was indeed the case.
Hope you wife is getting better after her bad accident.
Morning all.
Thanks for the kind words re the article and particularly to Mrs H.
I wouldn't want to overplay my contribution. I saw a little of the inside between October and December which was indeed interesting but apart from that one trip to London, the rest was a now-and-then e-mail conversation, though as I say, it did touch on a key theme.
That theme, however, was one put to me, not one I brought to others' attention. I did affirm my belief that it was real and sustaining, and as such implied it could be used for a campaign - but it wasn't my campaign in any way. You're right about which poster it was.
Mrs H has had a long recovery and while that's still ongoing, she'll probably never get full mobility back (among various other injuries, she suffered a shattered kneecap which has left her with restricted flexibility in that leg). It's the reason why for about the first three months of the year, my political activity was more-or-less restricted solely to writing my Saturday pieces here.
This should be a resignation issue for Letwin. During a time of austerity, he was handing over taxpayer money to a charity that he knew had flagrant abuse.
If Letwin had to resign over every gaffe he'd made he'd never have got out of the starting blocks.
This seems rather more than a gaffe. The only thing that seems like it would save him is that even more senior people on both political sides threw money at what appears to have been a bunch of shameless fantasists.
Bloody HOMELAND..I was determined not to watch the first episode last night as I would be in the UK for the rest of the series..but it hooked me..now I will be completeLl out of sync with the storyline..bugger..
It must have been great to see the campaign from the inside, there was clearly a massive amount of work done behind the scenes that most of us will never know about, to hear this story from a year ago shows that was indeed the case.
Hope you wife is getting better after her bad accident.
Morning all.
Thanks for the kind words re the article and particularly to Mrs H.
I wouldn't want to overplay my contribution. I saw a little of the inside between October and December which was indeed interesting but apart from that one trip to London, the rest was a now-and-then e-mail conversation, though as I say, it did touch on a key theme.
That theme, however, was one put to me, not one I brought to others' attention. I did affirm my belief that it was real and sustaining, and as such implied it could be used for a campaign - but it wasn't my campaign in any way. You're right about which poster it was.
Mrs H has had a long recovery and while that's still ongoing, she'll probably never get full mobility back (among various other injuries, she suffered a shattered kneecap which has left her with restricted flexibility in that leg). It's the reason why for about the first three months of the year, my political activity was more-or-less restricted solely to writing my Saturday pieces here.
Best wishes to you and Mrs H.
Your Saturday pieces are always appreciated.
Seconded (both sentiments).
But what of the Union, David? As long as the SNP are moderately smart (and they've been better than that to date) it looks over to me. I wouldn't point the blame at the Tories, though!
In any case, an independent Scotland would probably be more receptive to a right-of-centre party anyway.
PS I am increasingly thinking that the Tories may well finish second at Holyrood - what's your view?
This should be a resignation issue for Letwin. During a time of austerity, he was handing over taxpayer money to a charity that he knew had flagrant abuse.
If Letwin had to resign over every gaffe he'd made he'd never have got out of the starting blocks.
This seems rather more than a gaffe. The only thing that seems like it would save him is that even more senior people on both political sides threw money at what appears to have been a bunch of shameless fantasists.
Yes, it is much, much more than a gaffe. He had a letter saying an organization was completely corrupt, he received multiple warnings from the civil service about them, and still handed over taxpayer money to the corrupt organisation. During a time when we were reducing police presence on the street, stripping back the armed forces and limiting NHS treatments. It's unforgivable. He must go.
EDIT: By the way, this is the exact sort of thing that could demonstrated Conservative complacency due to having an unelectable opposition. We tolerate incompetent or unethical behaviour because we can see it through as Labour are in disarray. But the stains will still be there when they recover, and they'll accumulate and we'll face another 1997 in a decade's time. We must hold ourselves to high professional standards and come down on this stuff like a ton of bricks.
A shame. Why filibuster this bill? The cost of it is probably a rounding error.
Cameron and other Tories talked of an abuse of democracy earlier in the week - THIS is an abuse of democracy
There was a celebrated Tory MP, Eric Forth, who famously tried to block all baclkbench Bills: he explained to me that he felt that there was too much legislation, and any new Bill should be limited to Government time - "if it's uncontroversial, let the Government provide time, instead of some of their other nonsense". He also made a point of binning without reply any constituent correspondence of a non-political nature ("I am not here to fix people's drains").
He was Parliament's leading expert on procedure and knew countless ways to annoy the Labour government, but it did lead him into obstructing all kinds of mildly good stuff that nobody opposed, and it was hard not to feel that he was doing it in order to burnish a reputation that he'd adopted rather than for any more elevated motive. Perhaps Mr Davies sees himself in that tradition.
On topic, interesting article - thanks David, and sympathies for Mrs H. This sort of piece doesn't follow the "rule" that every lead article should be at least indirectly about betting, but it's hard to keep that up rigorously, and inside pictures of campaigns are interesting for many of us.
"The union being lost is down to the SNP being massively popular, Cameron hasn't solved the problem, but attacking the SNP and Evel has little to do with causing it."
They were massively popular because they were seen as the most effective opposition to the Tories. If there hadn't been a Tory government in Westminster there would never have been a referendum. The Scots were sick of being ruled by a Party they had never voted for.
You are aware that the SNP first formed a government at Holyrood in 2007 and had at that time a policy on delivering a referendum, though they didn't have the votes at the time to push it through?
This should be a resignation issue for Letwin. During a time of austerity, he was handing over taxpayer money to a charity that he knew had flagrant abuse.
If Letwin had to resign over every gaffe he'd made he'd never have got out of the starting blocks.
The loss of Letwin would lessen the chances for Labour.
Noted the interesting conversation about Sirhan Sirhan and the shooting of Kennedy.
Another interesting point from the event is that one of the soldiers from Band of Brothers, Easy company Bob Compton on returning from the war became a prosecutor in Los Angeles and subsequently went on to become the lead prosecutor in the case and brought to trialSirhan and secured the conviction.
He was later appointed to the Los -Angeles court of appeals as a senior judge.
Is this the one the Russians were claiming an hour ago hadn't crashed, or another one?
I have no idea. But it seems unlikely that there would be a false rumour about an airliner crashing an hour before a real one went down (unless it was a terrorist attack).
There was something on the BBC about a crash this morning: Egyptian officials saying contact had been lost, with Russian authorities saying contact had been reestablished and the plane was safe.
It can't have been another one.
The contradictory stories about the aircraft suggest someone is lying. You just have to hope its a mechanical issue. The alternative could be heavy duty in its implications.
The Guardian's "long read" series is worth subscribing to - usually looks at something outside daily controversy in depth, a bit like a London Review of Books piece. The latest one will interest Josias and perhaps others - it's about the Turkish situation, written with sympathy for the Kurdish side of the argument but detailed and nuanced enough to be worth 5 minutes:
David: Whether you had a hand in it or not, it was still a brilliant strategy from the Tory point of view. I am sure you will also admit that Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon helped you enormously. From their point of view, the Tory strategy was also perfect.
They wanted to reassure the loyal Labour voters in the Labour heartlands that indeed their votes will not be wasted if they voted SNP. If the SNP did support a minority Labour government, the SNP could hold Labour to their promises in a way even backbench Labour MPs could not. The Tory campaign on this issue fitted the SNP purpose perfectly.
Whatever may happen out of memogate remains to be seen. Whilst the attention is now being given entirely on the leak and very little on its contents. It was in the interests of both sides of the memo to keep stumm.
Finally, there is no better proof than Nicola Sturgeon's repeated admonishment to Miliband during the debates: "Ed, we can lock out the Tories", that this strategy suited both the SNP and the Tories. She managed to put the fear of God in the Tory / UKIP swing voters enough to drag back a couple of percentage to the Tories and at the same time really solidify the Labour to SNP swing in Central Scotland particularly Glasgow and its environs.
An incomplete list of things we've been told by the establishment:
Kids Company is a deserving charity Jimmy Saville is a wonderful person (ditto many others) Nothing is happening in Rotherham (ditto many others) Stafford hospital is safe (ditto many others) The banks are well run Politicians expenses are honest Tower Hamlets elections are fair Saddam Hussein has WMD
Pretty sure it was only the tower hamlets establishment and fellow travellers who told us their elections were fair, wasn't it?
But wasn't the action to have the Tower Hamlets election overturned brought by a few individuals whilst the Electoral Commission and plods did their best to look the other way ?
Is this the one the Russians were claiming an hour ago hadn't crashed, or another one?
I have no idea. But it seems unlikely that there would be a false rumour about an airliner crashing an hour before a real one went down (unless it was a terrorist attack).
There was something on the BBC about a crash this morning: Egyptian officials saying contact had been lost, with Russian authorities saying contact had been reestablished and the plane was safe.
It can't have been another one.
The contradictory stories about the aircraft suggest someone is lying. You just have to hope its a mechanical issue. The alternative could be heavy duty in its implications.
Latest on the BBC website is that the plane has crashed and the pilot reported 'technical difficulties'
An incomplete list of things we've been told by the establishment:
Kids Company is a deserving charity Jimmy Saville is a wonderful person (ditto many others) Nothing is happening in Rotherham (ditto many others) Stafford hospital is safe (ditto many others) The banks are well run Politicians expenses are honest Tower Hamlets elections are fair Saddam Hussein has WMD
Pretty sure it was only the tower hamlets establishment and fellow travellers who told us their elections were fair, wasn't it?
But wasn't the action to have the Tower Hamlets election overturned brought by a few individuals whilst the Electoral Commission and plods did their best to look the other way ?
O/T re tax credits.. never misunderstand the anger felt in some quarters, I have a disabled client who has no children, is a Labour supporter but whose venom at the "Tory cut" was close to apoplectic.
How many votes have changed as a result of her apoplectic anger? One suspects that were she not apoplectic about this, she'd find something else to spike her ire.
Thanks to the Labour membership it is certainly not a vote changer. The Tories have no opposition in England and basically do as they wish.
Congratulations to Mr Herdson on his important contribution. Now that the position of the Labour Party has changed what should be the strategy today? In my view no Conservative strategist should turn out the light at night without asking this question of himself-what have I done today to further strengthen the grip of Jeremy Corbyn on the party leadership? At last, the Conservatives have the opponent of their dreams. An inflexible, unreconstructed old socialist with no sense of humour or wit. He is a perfect embodiment of the Left and their way of seeing the world. How can we keep him and his toy town revolutionaries of Twitter in charge? It is only 50 days so far. May it go on for another 1500. If it means giving him good days at PMQs so be it. I envisage that he will rise in the polls and so will Labour with him .Fine. As long as he is there when the choice is made at the GE that is what matters.
An incomplete list of things we've been told by the establishment:
Kids Company is a deserving charity Jimmy Saville is a wonderful person (ditto many others) Nothing is happening in Rotherham (ditto many others) Stafford hospital is safe (ditto many others) The banks are well run Politicians expenses are honest Tower Hamlets elections are fair Saddam Hussein has WMD
Pretty sure it was only the tower hamlets establishment and fellow travellers who told us their elections were fair, wasn't it?
But wasn't the action to have the Tower Hamlets election overturned brought by a few individuals whilst the Electoral Commission and plods did their best to look the other way ?
Good point, good point. I recall the electoral judge's, er, judgement, expressing surprise that no Party had done so and that it had fallen to people in their capacity as local citizens.
Even more alarmingly, she is viewed as a 'realist'. What peculiar fantasies are the others indulging in to make her, of all people, seem like a realist? They must at the very least involve pigs in some capacity or other (Ashcroft showed what is possible).
It's as though he wants an SNP/Liberal Democrat alliance to form the official opposition.
That's absolutely terrifying if accurate (and usually even the sketchwriters at the Spectator are pretty switched on, so I'm assuming it is).
This paragraph is particularly unbelievable:
The thing is, you see, that “Take a fresh look” has been the unofficial theme of every meeting of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party since, oh, at least 1997. When you are reduced to pinching lines from the Scottish Tories you are probably in a position similar to the lost traveller seeking directions to Limerick who was told “Well, I wouldn’t start from here”.
I think their only chance of staying relevant is a UDI from London and running themselves in a loose alliance with Labour, like the SDLP, but making their own policy and strategy decisions.
Labour has to start again in Scotland. The obvious thing to do is to tack to the left and call the SNP's bluff over things such as income tax and tax credits. It may take some time, but come the first election in an independent Scotland - 2024 is my guess - the party may be very well positioned to benefit from the SNP's implosion.
This should be a resignation issue for Letwin. During a time of austerity, he was handing over taxpayer money to a charity that he knew had flagrant abuse.
Agreed, with the caveat that he should resign only once those running the charity are charged or convicted of an offence relating to the 'misallocation' of either charitable or public funds. Any scenario that sees govt ministers being held to account while those in charge of the 'charity' or their regulator gets away with it is not reasonable.
There's no shortage of people who should be prosecuted or sacked over this scandal but they wont be.
The UK has an alphabets soup of 'three monkeys' regulators.
Misconduct, corruption, incompetance and profligacy are now endemically tolerated and this toleration reaches right to the top.
Is this the one the Russians were claiming an hour ago hadn't crashed, or another one?
I have no idea. But it seems unlikely that there would be a false rumour about an airliner crashing an hour before a real one went down (unless it was a terrorist attack).
There was something on the BBC about a crash this morning: Egyptian officials saying contact had been lost, with Russian authorities saying contact had been reestablished and the plane was safe.
It can't have been another one.
The contradictory stories about the aircraft suggest someone is lying. You just have to hope its a mechanical issue. The alternative could be heavy duty in its implications.
Latest on the BBC website is that the plane has crashed and the pilot reported 'technical difficulties'
Unfortunate as it may be, thats the hoped for cause. It appears most of the contrary statements, and they were very contrary, came from the Egyptians rather than Russia.
Tell you who I really miss. Ed Miliband. I know he still pops into the Commons to vote, but it isn’t enough. Life for a parliamentary sketch writer isn’t the same without him.
He was wonderful to write about, because, like all great comic characters, he had a heart-tugging air of pathos. There he was, a fundamentally decent man in a job he wasn’t suited to, trying his best to overcome his failings – and always just falling short. He longed to win so badly – which meant that, while his mishaps may have been funny, they were also poignant.
So you think if UK Labour vote for Trident and the regional Scottish party vote NO , that Corbyn will make UK policy to NOT renew trident. Interesting thought.
At the very least, it will give Corbyn a chance to demonstrate his pro-Scottish credentials, by allowing them an 'independent' policy on the matter, whilst they endorse a viewpoint he actually holds himself. Win Win.
But what of the Union, David? As long as the SNP are moderately smart (and they've been better than that to date) it looks over to me. I wouldn't point the blame at the Tories, though!
In any case, an independent Scotland would probably be more receptive to a right-of-centre party anyway.
PS I am increasingly thinking that the Tories may well finish second at Holyrood - what's your view?
The Spectator article downthread was very good. Scottish Labour have lost a purpose and failed to find a role. What are they for? To govern competently? To promote a left-of-centre agenda? To promote a far-left agenda? To be a standard bearer for unionism? To provide an opposition to the SNP? To provide an opposition to the Tories? For all of these questions, there's a better answer than Labour. Unless they can find a way to up their game, they'll drift into Lib Dem territory of defining themselves as 'not the other two' and at risk of being triangulated out, without a positive case of their own and tainted by association. Unlike the Lib Dems, SLab still has the advantage that there's only one other government-forming party so they're still best-placed to take the second slot but there's no doubt that the second slot is, for now, vacant.
I don't think the Union is doomed but it will be if Westminster politicians allow themselves to jump continually to the SNP's tune. That can only end one way. Ultimately, the unionist parties have to divorce Scottish opinion from the Nationalists though they seem a long way from doing so at the moment. All regimes fall eventually though. For the time being, the case for independence has taken a big hit from the oil price drop and it's clear that Sturgeon isn't making Indy2 a short term priority, probably reasoning - accurately IMO - that a second defeat would finish off the question for 20 years.
Can the Conservatives finish second? Yes, but they probably won't. Scottish Conservative support is loyal an limited and unlikely to go much above 18% any time soon. Across large (and heavily populated) parts of the country, the party is an also-ran. There is certainly scope to recover lost ground in Edinburgh, Aberdeenshire, Perthshire and the like, and to build on an already strong base in the South - but the central belt and Glasgow is another matter. Finishing second relies on Labour sliding even further.
I agree that an independent Scotland would probably be more receptive to a right-of-centre party. It's one reason why I think SCon should pre-empt that eventuality (and so, ironically, hopefully forestalling it), and separate as a completely independent, but allied, party. I wrote about that immediately after the election:
The union being lost is down to the SNP being massively popular, Cameron hasn't solved the problem, but attacking the SNP and Evel has little to do with causing it.
Comres yesterday had the SNP on 34% BMG on 45% both down from the election
O/T re tax credits.. never misunderstand the anger felt in some quarters, I have a disabled client who has no children, is a Labour supporter but whose venom at the "Tory cut" was close to apoplectic.
How many votes have changed as a result of her apoplectic anger? One suspects that were she not apoplectic about this, she'd find something else to spike her ire.
Correct. And as I have said before there were bigger cuts to tax credits between 2010-15 under the coalition govt. Sorry to hear about your wife's injuries. It's a private matter, but any possible enlightenment about the circumstances? I was flashed by a camera a while back and went to a speed awareness course. Two things in particular stood out, one was the number of cyclists/ motor cyclist who are killed, especially as a proportion of total deaths (which are a lot lower than they used to be) and also, as an example, that if you brake from say 35mph you are still doing 18mph as you pass the point you would have stopped at doing 30.
Congratulations to Mr Herdson on his important contribution. Now that the position of the Labour Party has changed what should be the strategy today? In my view no Conservative strategist should turn out the light at night without asking this question of himself-what have I done today to further strengthen the grip of Jeremy Corbyn on the party leadership? At last, the Conservatives have the opponent of their dreams. An inflexible, unreconstructed old socialist with no sense of humour or wit. He is a perfect embodiment of the Left and their way of seeing the world. How can we keep him and his toy town revolutionaries of Twitter in charge? It is only 50 days so far. May it go on for another 1500. If it means giving him good days at PMQs so be it. I envisage that he will rise in the polls and so will Labour with him .Fine. As long as he is there when the choice is made at the GE that is what matters.
A Corbyn premiership would be an utter disaster so party politics aside Tories should hope Labour get rid of him, maybe after a bad by election like IDS, who knows what a recession or post EU ref could bring?
Scottish Tories voted 90% plus for the union in indyref, had Scottish Labour got its voters to do the same No would have won a landslide
Scottish Labour lost most of its base because it supported No. I would imagine the vast majority of current Labour voters in Scotland support the union.
Tell you who I really miss. Ed Miliband. I know he still pops into the Commons to vote, but it isn’t enough. Life for a parliamentary sketch writer isn’t the same without him.
He was wonderful to write about, because, like all great comic characters, he had a heart-tugging air of pathos. There he was, a fundamentally decent man in a job he wasn’t suited to, trying his best to overcome his failings – and always just falling short. He longed to win so badly – which meant that, while his mishaps may have been funny, they were also poignant.
Ouch! It's one thing to be called wrong as a politician, but being called out as weak and not up to the job must hurt for Ed.
That's absolutely terrifying if accurate (and usually even the sketchwriters at the Spectator are pretty switched on, so I'm assuming it is).
This paragraph is particularly unbelievable:
The thing is, you see, that “Take a fresh look” has been the unofficial theme of every meeting of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party since, oh, at least 1997. When you are reduced to pinching lines from the Scottish Tories you are probably in a position similar to the lost traveller seeking directions to Limerick who was told “Well, I wouldn’t start from here”.
I think their only chance of staying relevant is a UDI from London and running themselves in a loose alliance with Labour, like the SDLP, but making their own policy and strategy decisions.
Labour has to start again in Scotland. The obvious thing to do is to tack to the left and call the SNP's bluff over things such as income tax and tax credits. It may take some time, but come the first election in an independent Scotland - 2024 is my guess - the party may be very well positioned to benefit from the SNP's implosion.
The only way, in my opinion, Labour has any chance in the near future in Scotland, is to have an "independent" party. Not devolved. The Scottish Labour Party will be a separate party completely. It could send "fraternal" delegates to the Labour Party conference but not the usual CLP representation. The Scottish Labour party may indeed have a pro-independence agenda , if they chose.
CDU / CSU works like that. Basically, I would like a Federal Labour party, each country having its own Labour party including Northern Ireland.
By not allowing NI voters to vote on ideological grounds and instead on narrow sectarian lines we are simply perpetuating the problems of that province. Most voters in NI are actually not sectarian. I am sure many Democratic Unionists would support Labour. The NI Labour party could indeed also send delegates to the Irish Labour party.
The only common manifesto commitment will be on central government policy matters.
Tell you who I really miss. Ed Miliband. I know he still pops into the Commons to vote, but it isn’t enough. Life for a parliamentary sketch writer isn’t the same without him.
He was wonderful to write about, because, like all great comic characters, he had a heart-tugging air of pathos. There he was, a fundamentally decent man in a job he wasn’t suited to, trying his best to overcome his failings – and always just falling short. He longed to win so badly – which meant that, while his mishaps may have been funny, they were also poignant.
Ouch! It's one thing to be called wrong as a politician, but being called out as weak and not up to the job must hurt for Ed.
Well that's basically what millions of voters said on May 7th so I doubt it'd be a surprise.
It must have been great to see the campaign from the inside, there was clearly a massive amount of work done behind the scenes that most of us will never know about, to hear this story from a year ago shows that was indeed the case.
Hope you wife is getting better after her bad accident.
Morning all.
Thanks for the kind words re the article and particularly to Mrs H.
I wouldn't want to overplay my contribution. I saw a little of the inside between October and December which was indeed interesting but apart from that one trip to London, the rest was a now-and-then e-mail conversation, though as I say, it did touch on a key theme.
That theme, however, was one put to me, not one I brought to others' attention. I did affirm my belief that it was real and sustaining, and as such implied it could be used for a campaign - but it wasn't my campaign in any way. You're right about which poster it was.
Mrs H has had a long recovery and while that's still ongoing, she'll probably never get full mobility back (among various other injuries, she suffered a shattered kneecap which has left her with restricted flexibility in that leg). It's the reason why for about the first three months of the year, my political activity was more-or-less restricted solely to writing my Saturday pieces here.
Best wishes to you and Mrs H.
Your Saturday pieces are always appreciated.
Seconded (both sentiments).
But what of the Union, David? As long as the SNP are moderately smart (and they've been better than that to date) it looks over to me. I wouldn't point the blame at the Tories, though!
In any case, an independent Scotland would probably be more receptive to a right-of-centre party anyway.
PS I am increasingly thinking that the Tories may well finish second at Holyrood - what's your view?
Why should the Union be over? It won by a 10% margin in May and Quebec nationalists lost their second referendum too, even if by around 1%. Full Fiscal Autonomy is the best way forward
Earlier on in the week David Cameron claimed that Norway has to adopt roughly 75% of all EU rules. Turns out he was not just wrong, but badly wrong. It is 21%.
The reasoning behind the 21% figure can be found here:
Even more alarmingly, she is viewed as a 'realist'. What peculiar fantasies are the others indulging in to make her, of all people, seem like a realist? They must at the very least involve pigs in some capacity or other (Ashcroft showed what is possible).
It's as though he wants an SNP/Liberal Democrat alliance to form the official opposition.
That's absolutely terrifying if accurate (and usually even the sketchwriters at the Spectator are pretty switched on, so I'm assuming it is).
This paragraph is particularly unbelievable:
The thing is, you see, that “Take a fresh look” has been the unofficial theme of every meeting of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party since, oh, at least 1997. When you are reduced to pinching lines from the Scottish Tories you are probably in a position similar to the lost traveller seeking directions to Limerick who was told “Well, I wouldn’t start from here”.
I think their only chance of staying relevant is a UDI from London and running themselves in a loose alliance with Labour, like the SDLP, but making their own policy and strategy decisions.
Labour has to start again in Scotland. The obvious thing to do is to tack to the left and call the SNP's bluff over things such as income tax and tax credits. It may take some time, but come the first election in an independent Scotland - 2024 is my guess - the party may be very well positioned to benefit from the SNP's implosion.
Most Scots polled do not want another referendum for at least ten years
Even more alarmingly, she is viewed as a 'realist'. What peculiar fantasies are the others indulging in to make her, of all people, seem like a realist? They must at the very least involve pigs in some capacity or other (Ashcroft showed what is possible).
It's as though he wants an SNP/Liberal Democrat alliance to form the official opposition.
That's absolutely terrifying if accurate (and usually even the sketchwriters at the Spectator are pretty switched on, so I'm assuming it is).
This paragraph is particularly unbelievable:
The thing is, you see, that “Take a fresh look” has been the unofficial theme of every meeting of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party since, oh, at least 1997. When you are reduced to pinching lines from the Scottish Tories you are probably in a position similar to the lost traveller seeking directions to Limerick who was told “Well, I wouldn’t start from here”.
I think their only chance of staying relevant is a UDI from London and running themselves in a loose alliance with Labour, like the SDLP, but making their own policy and strategy decisions.
Labour has to start again in Scotland. The obvious thing to do is to tack to the left and call the SNP's bluff over things such as income tax and tax credits. It may take some time, but come the first election in an independent Scotland - 2024 is my guess - the party may be very well positioned to benefit from the SNP's implosion.
Labour in Scotland need to go hard against the SNP administration from now until the elections there next year. They need to stop wrapping themselves up in process and talk about crap policing, NHS, education, universities subsidising the wealthy, etc etc. every day for the next six months.
They'll never win unless they hold the Scottish government to account, if they carry on as they are they'll probably not even come second.
Even more alarmingly, she is viewed as a 'realist'. What peculiar fantasies are the others indulging in to make her, of all people, seem like a realist? They must at the very least involve pigs in some capacity or other (Ashcroft showed what is possible).
It's as though he wants an SNP/Liberal Democrat alliance to form the official opposition.
That's absolutely terrifying if accurate (and usually even the sketchwriters at the Spectator are pretty switched on, so I'm assuming it is).
This paragraph is particularly unbelievable:
The thing is, you see, that “Take a fresh look” has been the unofficial theme of every meeting of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party since, oh, at least 1997. When you are reduced to pinching lines from the Scottish Tories you are probably in a position similar to the lost traveller seeking directions to Limerick who was told “Well, I wouldn’t start from here”.
I think their only chance of staying relevant is a UDI from London and running themselves in a loose alliance with Labour, like the SDLP, but making their own policy and strategy decisions.
Labour has to start again in Scotland. The obvious thing to do is to tack to the left and call the SNP's bluff over things such as income tax and tax credits. It may take some time, but come the first election in an independent Scotland - 2024 is my guess - the party may be very well positioned to benefit from the SNP's implosion.
Problem with that is that the majority do not want real left wing, they want centralish but with a heart ( unlike the Tories). They do not want socialist halfwits , rather a party that can run the country and try to help both rich and poor. That is not current labour party. They are neither real left wing or have a clue how to run anything.
Earlier on in the week David Cameron claimed that Norway has to adopt roughly 75% of all EU rules. Turns out he was not just wrong, but badly wrong. It is 21%.
The reasoning behind the 21% figure can be found here:
Even more alarmingly, she is viewed as a 'realist'. What peculiar fantasies are the others indulging in to make her, of all people, seem like a realist? They must at the very least involve pigs in some capacity or other (Ashcroft showed what is possible).
It's as though he wants an SNP/Liberal Democrat alliance to form the official opposition.
That's absolutely terrifying if accurate (and usually even the sketchwriters at the Spectator are pretty switched on, so I'm assuming it is).
This paragraph is particularly unbelievable:
The thing is, you see, that “Take a fresh look” has been the unofficial theme of every meeting of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party since, oh, at least 1997. When you are reduced to pinching lines from the Scottish Tories you are probably in a position similar to the lost traveller seeking directions to Limerick who was told “Well, I wouldn’t start from here”.
I think their only chance of staying relevant is a UDI from London and running themselves in a loose alliance with Labour, like the SDLP, but making their own policy and strategy decisions.
Labour has to start again in Scotland. The obvious thing to do is to tack to the left and call the SNP's bluff over things such as income tax and tax credits. It may take some time, but come the first election in an independent Scotland - 2024 is my guess - the party may be very well positioned to benefit from the SNP's implosion.
Most Scots polled do not want another referendum for at least ten years
Let's see how they feel after another Tory landslide in 2020.
Earlier on in the week David Cameron claimed that Norway has to adopt roughly 75% of all EU rules. Turns out he was not just wrong, but badly wrong. It is 21%.
The reasoning behind the 21% figure can be found here:
Cameron and Osborne (like all the Bilderbergers) are desperate for the UK to stay in the EU at all costs.
The lies, smears and scare tactics over the next year or two will be quite something... But I trust the good sense of the British people to ignore this nonsense and vote OUT in the end.
Earlier on in the week David Cameron claimed that Norway has to adopt roughly 75% of all EU rules. Turns out he was not just wrong, but badly wrong. It is 21%.
The reasoning behind the 21% figure can be found here:
Scottish Tories voted 90% plus for the union in indyref, had Scottish Labour got its voters to do the same No would have won a landslide
Scottish Labour lost most of its base because it supported No. I would imagine the vast majority of current Labour voters in Scotland support the union.
Yes but it was Labour's half hearted pro union campaign with a few honourable exceptions like Jim Murphy which failed to enthuse its voters unlike Ruth Davidson's positive pro Union campaign
That's absolutely terrifying if accurate (and usually even the sketchwriters at the Spectator are pretty switched on, so I'm assuming it is).
This paragraph is particularly unbelievable:
The thing is, you see, that “Take a fresh look” has been the unofficial theme of every meeting of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party since, oh, at least 1997. When you are reduced to pinching lines from the Scottish Tories you are probably in a position similar to the lost traveller seeking directions to Limerick who was told “Well, I wouldn’t start from here”.
I think their only chance of staying relevant is a UDI from London and running themselves in a loose alliance with Labour, like the SDLP, but making their own policy and strategy decisions.
Labour has to start again in Scotland. The obvious thing to do is to tack to the left and call the SNP's bluff over things such as income tax and tax credits. It may take some time, but come the first election in an independent Scotland - 2024 is my guess - the party may be very well positioned to benefit from the SNP's implosion.
The only way, in my opinion, Labour has any chance in the near future in Scotland, is to have an "independent" party. Not devolved. The Scottish Labour Party will be a separate party completely. It could send "fraternal" delegates to the Labour Party conference but not the usual CLP representation. The Scottish Labour party may indeed have a pro-independence agenda , if they chose.
CDU / CSU works like that. Basically, I would like a Federal Labour party, each country having its own Labour party including Northern Ireland.
By not allowing NI voters to vote on ideological grounds and instead on narrow sectarian lines we are simply perpetuating the problems of that province. Most voters in NI are actually not sectarian. I am sure many Democratic Unionists would support Labour. The NI Labour party could indeed also send delegates to the Irish Labour party.
The only common manifesto commitment will be on central government policy matters.
The union being lost is down to the SNP being massively popular, Cameron hasn't solved the problem, but attacking the SNP and Evel has little to do with causing it.
Comres yesterday had the SNP on 34% BMG on 45% both down from the election
Again, sub samples rear their heads ! On eof the sub-samples even had the Tories leading in London !
Would the Corbynite left be willing to swallow the huge loss of defence jobs that its suggested human rights policy would entail? There are already stories about possible loss of Saudi contracts as a result of the cancellation of this prison contract. Seats with defence interests would be mad to vote labour in 2020. In the same way, seats with car building interests would be mad to vote Leave in the referendum.
Scottish Tories voted 90% plus for the union in indyref, had Scottish Labour got its voters to do the same No would have won a landslide
Scottish Labour lost most of its base because it supported No. I would imagine the vast majority of current Labour voters in Scotland support the union.
Yes but it was Labour's half hearted pro union campaign with a few honourable exceptions like Jim Murphy which failed to enthuse its voters unlike Ruth Davidson's positive pro Union campaign
I disagree. Labour's problem was that it campaigned on the same side as the Tories at a time when Westminster was (and is) held in contempt by most Scottish voters. Labour contributed greatly to that feeling of contempt by taking Scotland so much for granted, of course.
Would the Corbynite left be willing to swallow the huge loss of defence jobs that its suggested human rights policy would entail? There are already stories about possible loss of Saudi contracts as a result of the cancellation of this prison contract. Seats with defence interests would be mad to vote labour in 2020. In the same way, seats with car building interests would be mad to vote Leave in the referendum.
My sales in the Automotive industry has crashed over the last few months. No new projects / investments are taking place or are planned. The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments. Not surprising really.
Earlier on in the week David Cameron claimed that Norway has to adopt roughly 75% of all EU rules. Turns out he was not just wrong, but badly wrong. It is 21%.
The reasoning behind the 21% figure can be found here:
Scottish Tories voted 90% plus for the union in indyref, had Scottish Labour got its voters to do the same No would have won a landslide
Scottish Labour lost most of its base because it supported No. I would imagine the vast majority of current Labour voters in Scotland support the union.
Yes but it was Labour's half hearted pro union campaign with a few honourable exceptions like Jim Murphy which failed to enthuse its voters unlike Ruth Davidson's positive pro Union campaign
I disagree. Labour's problem was that it campaigned on the same side as the Tories at a time when Westminster was (and is) held in contempt by most Scottish voters. Labour contributed greatly to that feeling of contempt by taking Scotland so much for granted, of course.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Let's see how they feel after another Tory landslide in 2020.
Of the issue that prevented many from voting for independence last time (currency, etc) which will have changed by 2020. Probably the economic case will be even weaker given what has happened to the price of oil. So why would the result of a referendum in the early 2020s be any different?
If the answer is that the Scots will not tolerate a Conservative government in Westminster deciding on non-devolved issues then I suggest the Union is already brain dead and the sooner the life-support machine and artificial feeding apparatus are switched off the better. Then the two nations can work out some sort of amicable modus vivendi to replace the constant and destructive tension and nasty bickering we now have.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
Scottish Tories voted 90% plus for the union in indyref, had Scottish Labour got its voters to do the same No would have won a landslide
Scottish Labour lost most of its base because it supported No. I would imagine the vast majority of current Labour voters in Scotland support the union.
Earlier on in the week David Cameron claimed that Norway has to adopt roughly 75% of all EU rules. Turns out he was not just wrong, but badly wrong. It is 21%.
The reasoning behind the 21% figure can be found here:
Even if it means making statements which are completely wrong?
The biggest lies are being made by those "OUTers" who say we could adopt the EEA position quietly ignoring that the freedom of movement policy is the same.
There are two separate constituents amongst the OUTers.
1. Immigration [ including many Labour to UKIP voters ]
2. Control of policy [ including vast numbers of Tories who want OUT ]
Yes, in many cases, their interests do coincide but they support the LEAVE campaign from different points of view.
O/T re tax credits.. never misunderstand the anger felt in some quarters, I have a disabled client who has no children, is a Labour supporter but whose venom at the "Tory cut" was close to apoplectic.
How many votes have changed as a result of her apoplectic anger? One suspects that were she not apoplectic about this, she'd find something else to spike her ire.
Correct. And as I have said before there were bigger cuts to tax credits between 2010-15 under the coalition govt. Sorry to hear about your wife's injuries. It's a private matter, but any possible enlightenment about the circumstances? I was flashed by a camera a while back and went to a speed awareness course. Two things in particular stood out, one was the number of cyclists/ motor cyclist who are killed, especially as a proportion of total deaths (which are a lot lower than they used to be) and also, as an example, that if you brake from say 35mph you are still doing 18mph as you pass the point you would have stopped at doing 30.
She was working at the time as a care assistant, and travelling from one evening appointment to the next. The weather was terrible: heavy rain and strong wind. She was heading down a country lane in her Vauxhall Corsa when a Jag XF heading up the road lost control and spun directly in front of her, giving her virtually no time to slow down (though she almost certainly hit the brake, as that'd explain why her right leg suffered a fracture to her thigh-bone and the shattered kneecap, while her left escaped essentially unharmed. I don't know whether speed was the prime cause of the accident or carelessness or inadequate skill in driving a heavy, rear-wheel drive car uphill in wet, slippery, windy conditions. Whatever, he was prosecuted for his failings.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
Would the Corbynite left be willing to swallow the huge loss of defence jobs that its suggested human rights policy would entail? There are already stories about possible loss of Saudi contracts as a result of the cancellation of this prison contract. Seats with defence interests would be mad to vote labour in 2020. In the same way, seats with car building interests would be mad to vote Leave in the referendum.
My sales in the Automotive industry has crashed over the last few months. No new projects / investments are taking place or are planned. The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments. Not surprising really.
P.S. I am not talking about "software".
This is likely to be the same in various industries I would have thought. The trouble with Outers is they are fulfilling a fantasy and a prejudice without having to take the consequences of their acts. This is not an election. If Leave wins, no one from Leave will be propelled into government and have to live with the political and economic upheaval.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
O/T re tax credits.. never misunderstand the anger felt in some quarters, I have a disabled client who has no children, is a Labour supporter but whose venom at the "Tory cut" was close to apoplectic.
How many votes have changed as a result of her apoplectic anger? One suspects that were she not apoplectic about this, she'd find something else to spike her ire.
Possibly, but quite how the Tories have made such a pig's ear of explaining just how much is paid at an individual level remains a mystery.
The average two-child tax credit family are being paid over £11,200 a year in tax credits and child benefit. Over £900 a month.
That would make a lot of ordinary wage, non-recipients' eyes water.
O/T re tax credits.. never misunderstand the anger felt in some quarters, I have a disabled client who has no children, is a Labour supporter but whose venom at the "Tory cut" was close to apoplectic.
How many votes have changed as a result of her apoplectic anger? One suspects that were she not apoplectic about this, she'd find something else to spike her ire.
Possibly, but quite how the Tories have made such a pig's ear of explaining just how much is paid at an individual level remains a mystery.
The average two-child tax credit family are being paid over £11,200 a year in tax credits and child benefit. Over £900 a month.
That would make a lot of ordinary wage, non-recipients' eyes water.
This. A hundred times this!!!
Those in favour of the changes have failed to make the case, and I don't understand why unless this is part of some conveluted Tory strategy to keep Corbyn in place.
As a guess any concessions in the autumn will be both minor at the bottom end and accompanied by further TC cuts higher up he income scale - thereby saving even more money while encouraging job growth.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
You must hate your fellow Scots for decisively not seeing it that way.
Would the Corbynite left be willing to swallow the huge loss of defence jobs that its suggested human rights policy would entail? There are already stories about possible loss of Saudi contracts as a result of the cancellation of this prison contract. Seats with defence interests would be mad to vote labour in 2020. In the same way, seats with car building interests would be mad to vote Leave in the referendum.
My sales in the Automotive industry has crashed over the last few months. No new projects / investments are taking place or are planned. The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments. Not surprising really.
P.S. I am not talking about "software".
Is that the same UK automotive industry you said would be shut down if the UK didn't join the Euro ?
"The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments."
I can tell you from where I work that your statement isn't true.
O/T re tax credits.. never misunderstand the anger felt in some quarters, I have a disabled client who has no children, is a Labour supporter but whose venom at the "Tory cut" was close to apoplectic.
How many votes have changed as a result of her apoplectic anger? One suspects that were she not apoplectic about this, she'd find something else to spike her ire.
Possibly, but quite how the Tories have made such a pig's ear of explaining just how much is paid at an individual level remains a mystery.
The average two-child tax credit family are being paid over £11,200 a year in tax credits and child benefit. Over £900 a month.
That would make a lot of ordinary wage, non-recipients' eyes water.
The Tories have always been bad at this sort of politics. The figures represent an example of the extent of Brown's massive inrease in spending between 2001-10. Also it points to the difficulty of implimenting the alternative offered by Frank Field which purports to protect the lower paid. It would make for a massive marginal rate of taxation for the higher paid.
O/T re tax credits.. never misunderstand the anger felt in some quarters, I have a disabled client who has no children, is a Labour supporter but whose venom at the "Tory cut" was close to apoplectic.
How many votes have changed as a result of her apoplectic anger? One suspects that were she not apoplectic about this, she'd find something else to spike her ire.
Possibly, but quite how the Tories have made such a pig's ear of explaining just how much is paid at an individual level remains a mystery.
The average two-child tax credit family are being paid over £11,200 a year in tax credits and child benefit. Over £900 a month.
That would make a lot of ordinary wage, non-recipients' eyes water.
Indeed. Whenever a minister does have it dragged out of them that some will lose (derr - if you cut the overall bill by that much, it's inevitable), they present it as a necessary evil: something that has to be done to reduce the deficit. They should argue that it's a positive good that the state is getting out of people's way and put the rise in minimum wage and higher threshold not as 'compensation' (implying that people should be compensated for losing benefits) but as part of a broader, philosophical argument.
Earlier on in the week David Cameron claimed that Norway has to adopt roughly 75% of all EU rules. Turns out he was not just wrong, but badly wrong. It is 21%.
The reasoning behind the 21% figure can be found here:
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
Labour's problem is their endless years of hegemony and corruption in Scotland.
Would the Corbynite left be willing to swallow the huge loss of defence jobs that its suggested human rights policy would entail? There are already stories about possible loss of Saudi contracts as a result of the cancellation of this prison contract. Seats with defence interests would be mad to vote labour in 2020. In the same way, seats with car building interests would be mad to vote Leave in the referendum.
My sales in the Automotive industry has crashed over the last few months. No new projects / investments are taking place or are planned. The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments. Not surprising really.
P.S. I am not talking about "software".
Is that the same UK automotive industry you said would be shut down if the UK didn't join the Euro ?
"The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments."
I can tell you from where I work that your statement isn't true.
Er...when did I say that ? I am not sure PB even existed in 1997. In fact, it was Brown / Balls who made sure that the UK did not join the Euro.
The union being lost is down to the SNP being massively popular, Cameron hasn't solved the problem, but attacking the SNP and Evel has little to do with causing it.
Comres yesterday had the SNP on 34% BMG on 45% both down from the election
Again, sub samples rear their heads ! On eof the sub-samples even had the Tories leading in London !
In Comres not in BMG but few recent polls have had the SNP on the 55 to 60% or so they reached for a brief period in the summer
Even more alarmingly, she is viewed as a 'realist'. What peculiar fantasies are the others indulging in to make her, of all people, seem like a realist? They must at the very least involve pigs in some capacity or other (Ashcroft showed what is possible).
It's as though he wants an SNP/Liberal Democrat alliance to form the official opposition.
That's absolutely terrifying if accurate (and usually even the sketchwriters at the Spectator are pretty switched on, so I'm assuming it is).
This paragraph is particularly unbelievable:
The thing is, you see, that “Take a fresh look” has been the unofficial theme of every meeting of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party since, oh, at least 1997. When you are reduced to pinching lines from the Scottish Tories you are probably in a position similar to the lost traveller seeking directions to Limerick who was told “Well, I wouldn’t start from here”.
I think their only chance of staying relevant is a UDI from London and running themselves in a loose alliance with Labour, like the SDLP, but making their own policy and strategy decisions.
Labour has to start again in Scotland. The obvious thing to do is to tack to the left and call the SNP's bluff over things such as income tax and tax credits. It may take some time, but come the first election in an independent Scotland - 2024 is my guess - the party may be very well positioned to benefit from the SNP's implosion.
Most Scots polled do not want another referendum for at least ten years
Let's see how they feel after another Tory landslide in 2020.
The Tories have seen their biggest increase in the polls since the election in Scotland. Anyway Osborne will not win a landslide more likely largest party in a hung parliament
Scottish Tories voted 90% plus for the union in indyref, had Scottish Labour got its voters to do the same No would have won a landslide
Scottish Labour lost most of its base because it supported No. I would imagine the vast majority of current Labour voters in Scotland support the union.
Yes but it was Labour's half hearted pro union campaign with a few honourable exceptions like Jim Murphy which failed to enthuse its voters unlike Ruth Davidson's positive pro Union campaign
I disagree. Labour's problem was that it campaigned on the same side as the Tories at a time when Westminster was (and is) held in contempt by most Scottish voters. Labour contributed greatly to that feeling of contempt by taking Scotland so much for granted, of course.
O/T re tax credits.. never misunderstand the anger felt in some quarters, I have a disabled client who has no children, is a Labour supporter but whose venom at the "Tory cut" was close to apoplectic.
How many votes have changed as a result of her apoplectic anger? One suspects that were she not apoplectic about this, she'd find something else to spike her ire.
Possibly, but quite how the Tories have made such a pig's ear of explaining just how much is paid at an individual level remains a mystery.
The average two-child tax credit family are being paid over £11,200 a year in tax credits and child benefit. Over £900 a month.
That would make a lot of ordinary wage, non-recipients' eyes water.
Can you explain this ? Child benefit is £1788 per year for two children. So, £9410 must be the Tax credit.
Really ? Where did you get your figures from ?
THe government was cutting £4.4 bn from a total bill supposedly of £28bn. Why didn't they start hacking £4.4bn from the top ?
Even more alarmingly, she is viewed as a 'realist'. What peculiar fantasies are the others indulging in to make her, of all people, seem like a realist? They must at the very least involve pigs in some capacity or other (Ashcroft showed what is possible).
It's as though he wants an SNP/Liberal Democrat alliance to form the official opposition.
That's absolutely terrifying if accurate (and usually even the sketchwriters at the Spectator are pretty switched on, so I'm assuming it is).
This paragraph is particularly unbelievable:
The thing is, you see, that “Take a fresh look” has been the unofficial theme of every meeting of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party since, oh, at least 1997. When you are reduced to pinching lines from the Scottish Tories you are probably in a position similar to the lost traveller seeking directions to Limerick who was told “Well, I wouldn’t start from here”.
I think their only chance of staying relevant is a UDI from London and running themselves in a loose alliance with Labour, like the SDLP, but making their own policy and strategy decisions.
Labour has to start again in Scotland. The obvious thing to do is to tack to the left and call the SNP's bluff over things such as income tax and tax credits. It may take some time, but come the first election in an independent Scotland - 2024 is my guess - the party may be very well positioned to benefit from the SNP's implosion.
Problem with that is that the majority do not want real left wing, they want centralish but with a heart ( unlike the Tories). They do not want socialist halfwits , rather a party that can run the country and try to help both rich and poor. That is not current labour party. They are neither real left wing or have a clue how to run anything.
Most centrist voters backed the Tories in yesterday's BMG
Scottish Tories voted 90% plus for the union in indyref, had Scottish Labour got its voters to do the same No would have won a landslide
Scottish Labour lost most of its base because it supported No. I would imagine the vast majority of current Labour voters in Scotland support the union.
Yes but it was Labour's half hearted pro union campaign with a few honourable exceptions like Jim Murphy which failed to enthuse its voters unlike Ruth Davidson's positive pro Union campaign
I disagree. Labour's problem was that it campaigned on the same side as the Tories at a time when Westminster was (and is) held in contempt by most Scottish voters. Labour contributed greatly to that feeling of contempt by taking Scotland so much for granted, of course.
Referendums are cross party as EU ref will be
But it was perceived as a partnership with the Tories. Labour also must not make the same mistake in the EU referendum. By all means support staying IN but do not get on the same platform as Cameron / Osborne.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
Both wrong. The Canadian Liberals have just won most seats in Quebec at a general election for the first time on 30 years during most of that time the Bloc Quebecois dominated but lost two independence referendums
Earlier on in the week David Cameron claimed that Norway has to adopt roughly 75% of all EU rules. Turns out he was not just wrong, but badly wrong. It is 21%.
The reasoning behind the 21% figure can be found here:
Therein lying an issue for 'remain'. Its support and activist base is on one side of the political spectrum (left) and its leadership is (or at least appears to be) on the other (right). So you have left wing activists (not to mention SNP ones) knocking on doors with Cameron's message.
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
How do you think the English felt then when the PM was Brown and the Chancellor Darling, both Scots!
A basic Tory problem with tax credits is a lack of clear message. I think that most people sense that Osborne thinks the cuts are a good thing and he is being dragged reluctantly to watering them down. That prevents a "Sorry, we got it wrong, we're listening and will change it" strategy from working. If, conversely, they wanted to persuade people that their strategy was right and they are merely compromising as necessary to get it through, people would understand the tactics, though it would reinforce the "nasty" image in some floating voter minds, and they could hope to look "nasty but comptent", which arguably is what won the election for them.
Currently they have the worst of both worlds - they aren't any longer saying the cuts are a good thing, and they aren't offering a clear alternative, but punting it to the autumn statement for two uncomfortable weeks. As a result, the polling on the issue has worsened markedly from the initially muffled picture.
Leaving aside political advantage, the real world issue which even hardened Conservatives would I'd think be able to accept is that nobody except the extremely rich can easily weather a sudden £1300/month drop in income, whether it's justified in principle or not. People adjust to what income they have and take mortgages, buy clothes, plan family budgets etc. accordingly. So it simply doesn't help to say "Ha, we've just noticed that you're getting an unreasonable amount, and we're going to take it all away next spring".
Would the Corbynite left be willing to swallow the huge loss of defence jobs that its suggested human rights policy would entail? There are already stories about possible loss of Saudi contracts as a result of the cancellation of this prison contract. Seats with defence interests would be mad to vote labour in 2020. In the same way, seats with car building interests would be mad to vote Leave in the referendum.
My sales in the Automotive industry has crashed over the last few months. No new projects / investments are taking place or are planned. The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments. Not surprising really.
P.S. I am not talking about "software".
Is that the same UK automotive industry you said would be shut down if the UK didn't join the Euro ?
"The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments."
I can tell you from where I work that your statement isn't true.
From where you work you probably don't see a recession. Not coming, we are in it.
Manufacturing: Q1 -0.1% Q2 -0.5% Q3 -0.3%
Source: ONS
"However, output in the manufacturing sector declined by 0.3%.
"The slowdown is being led by the manufacturing sector, which is seeing a renewed recession as output has now fallen for three consecutive quarters, suffering a 0.3% decline in the three months to September," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at research firm Markit.
"Manufacturing output has so far fallen 0.9% this year. Producers are struggling as weak demand in many overseas markets, notably China and other emerging nations, is being exacerbated by the appreciation of sterling." "
So what next? Salmond really irritated people with his arrogance and excessive smugness. Putting Ed in his pocket was indeed devastating for Ed.
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am free Southam. I am British and that makes you about as about as free as you can be on this miserable earth.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
All the pro-Union parties will die and will reconstitute themselves. Labour will keep its name, accept Indy and start winning again as it becomes clear just how many fibs the SNP told. The Tories may have to change their name, but will doubtless pick up votes from the SNP too, and will probably win power - or a share of it - within a decade or so. For its part, the SNP will soldier on for a while, then disappear, it's job done.
A basic Tory problem with tax credits is a lack of clear message. I think that most people sense that Osborne thinks the cuts are a good thing and he is being dragged reluctantly to watering them down. That prevents a "Sorry, we got it wrong, we're listening and will change it" strategy from working. If, conversely, they wanted to persuade people that their strategy was right and they are merely compromising as necessary to get it through, people would understand the tactics, though it would reinforce the "nasty" image in some floating voter minds, and they could hope to look "nasty but comptent", which arguably is what won the election for them.
Currently they have the worst of both worlds - they aren't any longer saying the cuts are a good thing, and they aren't offering a clear alternative, but punting it to the autumn statement for two uncomfortable weeks. As a result, the polling on the issue has worsened markedly from the initially muffled picture.
Leaving aside political advantage, the real world issue which even hardened Conservatives would I'd think be able to accept is that nobody except the extremely rich can easily weather a sudden £1300/month drop in income, whether it's justified in principle or not. People adjust to what income they have and take mortgages, buy clothes, plan family budgets etc. accordingly. So it simply doesn't help to say "Ha, we've just noticed that you're getting an unreasonable amount, and we're going to take it all away next spring".
£1300 a month Nick ?!
Just how fucking much are people being paid for their kids that the drop is that much !! No wonder we won't hit our emissions targets by 2050...
Labour will win in Scotland again when you are free, David. The Tories and the SNP will continue to work together to ensure that happens within the next ten years.
I am frr.
I am NOT free, I am Scottish , ruled by a foreign country.
The union being lost is down to the SNP being massively popular, Cameron hasn't solved the problem, but attacking the SNP and Evel has little to do with causing it.
Comres yesterday had the SNP on 34% BMG on 45% both down from the election
It would be hard to go further up from the election, in fairness.
Comments
Kids Company is a deserving charity
Jimmy Saville is a wonderful person (ditto many others)
Nothing is happening in Rotherham (ditto many others)
Stafford hospital is safe (ditto many others)
The banks are well run
Politicians expenses are honest
Tower Hamlets elections are fair
Saddam Hussein has WMD
http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/lifestyle/13895567.Hallowe_en_revellers_urged_to_turn_to_TURNIPS_after_fears_of_pumpkin_shortage/
Quite, it's the first I had ever heard of it
Very best wishes to you and your wife, and I really do hope she does make as close to a full recovery as possible.
Tht Cameron still sees nothing wrong in handing over the money shows he has the same mentality.
Your Saturday pieces are always appreciated.
But what of the Union, David? As long as the SNP are moderately smart (and they've been better than that to date) it looks over to me. I wouldn't point the blame at the Tories, though!
In any case, an independent Scotland would probably be more receptive to a right-of-centre party anyway.
PS I am increasingly thinking that the Tories may well finish second at Holyrood - what's your view?
EDIT: By the way, this is the exact sort of thing that could demonstrated Conservative complacency due to having an unelectable opposition. We tolerate incompetent or unethical behaviour because we can see it through as Labour are in disarray. But the stains will still be there when they recover, and they'll accumulate and we'll face another 1997 in a decade's time. We must hold ourselves to high professional standards and come down on this stuff like a ton of bricks.
He was Parliament's leading expert on procedure and knew countless ways to annoy the Labour government, but it did lead him into obstructing all kinds of mildly good stuff that nobody opposed, and it was hard not to feel that he was doing it in order to burnish a reputation that he'd adopted rather than for any more elevated motive. Perhaps Mr Davies sees himself in that tradition.
On topic, interesting article - thanks David, and sympathies for Mrs H. This sort of piece doesn't follow the "rule" that every lead article should be at least indirectly about betting, but it's hard to keep that up rigorously, and inside pictures of campaigns are interesting for many of us.
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/10/26/has-the-united-states-lost-its-best-friend-to-its-biggest-rival/
PS. Kate looks like a Stepford Wife in that photo...
Another interesting point from the event is that one of the soldiers from Band of Brothers, Easy company Bob Compton on returning from the war became a prosecutor in Los Angeles and subsequently went on to become the lead prosecutor in the case and brought to trialSirhan and secured the conviction.
He was later appointed to the Los -Angeles court of appeals as a senior judge.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/29/selahattin-demirtas-kurdish-turkey?CMP=ema-1133
They wanted to reassure the loyal Labour voters in the Labour heartlands that indeed their votes will not be wasted if they voted SNP. If the SNP did support a minority Labour government, the SNP could hold Labour to their promises in a way even backbench Labour MPs could not. The Tory campaign on this issue fitted the SNP purpose perfectly.
Whatever may happen out of memogate remains to be seen. Whilst the attention is now being given entirely on the leak and very little on its contents. It was in the interests of both sides of the memo to keep stumm.
Finally, there is no better proof than Nicola Sturgeon's repeated admonishment to Miliband during the debates: "Ed, we can lock out the Tories", that this strategy suited both the SNP and the Tories. She managed to put the fear of God in the Tory / UKIP swing voters enough to drag back a couple of percentage to the Tories and at the same time really solidify the Labour to SNP swing in Central Scotland particularly Glasgow and its environs.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/11563876/Threats-bullying-and-cowardice-The-inside-story-of-the-Tower-Hamlets-mayor-election-fraud.html
I think their only chance of staying relevant is a UDI from London and running themselves in a loose alliance with Labour, like the SDLP, but making their own policy and strategy decisions.
Labour has to start again in Scotland. The obvious thing to do is to tack to the left and call the SNP's bluff over things such as income tax and tax credits. It may take some time, but come the first election in an independent Scotland - 2024 is my guess - the party may be very well positioned to benefit from the SNP's implosion.
The UK has an alphabets soup of 'three monkeys' regulators.
Misconduct, corruption, incompetance and profligacy are now endemically tolerated and this toleration reaches right to the top.
Here's the BBC's election night coverage (starting with that glorious exit poll of course)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00t9sk3/election-2015-1-election-2015-part-1
I don't think the Union is doomed but it will be if Westminster politicians allow themselves to jump continually to the SNP's tune. That can only end one way. Ultimately, the unionist parties have to divorce Scottish opinion from the Nationalists though they seem a long way from doing so at the moment. All regimes fall eventually though. For the time being, the case for independence has taken a big hit from the oil price drop and it's clear that Sturgeon isn't making Indy2 a short term priority, probably reasoning - accurately IMO - that a second defeat would finish off the question for 20 years.
Can the Conservatives finish second? Yes, but they probably won't. Scottish Conservative support is loyal an limited and unlikely to go much above 18% any time soon. Across large (and heavily populated) parts of the country, the party is an also-ran. There is certainly scope to recover lost ground in Edinburgh, Aberdeenshire, Perthshire and the like, and to build on an already strong base in the South - but the central belt and Glasgow is another matter. Finishing second relies on Labour sliding even further.
I agree that an independent Scotland would probably be more receptive to a right-of-centre party. It's one reason why I think SCon should pre-empt that eventuality (and so, ironically, hopefully forestalling it), and separate as a completely independent, but allied, party. I wrote about that immediately after the election:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/09/only-divorce-can-save-the-union/
Sorry to hear about your wife's injuries. It's a private matter, but any possible enlightenment about the circumstances?
I was flashed by a camera a while back and went to a speed awareness course. Two things in particular stood out, one was the number of cyclists/ motor cyclist who are killed, especially as a proportion of total deaths (which are a lot lower than they used to be) and also, as an example, that if you brake from say 35mph you are still doing 18mph as you pass the point you would have stopped at doing 30.
The only way, in my opinion, Labour has any chance in the near future in Scotland, is to have an "independent" party. Not devolved. The Scottish Labour Party will be a separate party completely. It could send "fraternal" delegates to the Labour Party conference but not the usual CLP representation. The Scottish Labour party may indeed have a pro-independence agenda , if they chose.
CDU / CSU works like that. Basically, I would like a Federal Labour party, each country having its own Labour party including Northern Ireland.
By not allowing NI voters to vote on ideological grounds and instead on narrow sectarian lines we are simply perpetuating the problems of that province. Most voters in NI are actually not sectarian. I am sure many Democratic Unionists would support Labour. The NI Labour party could indeed also send delegates to the Irish Labour party.
The only common manifesto commitment will be on central government policy matters.
Well that's basically what millions of voters said on May 7th so I doubt it'd be a surprise.
Earlier on in the week David Cameron claimed that Norway has to adopt roughly 75% of all EU rules. Turns out he was not just wrong, but badly wrong. It is 21%.
The reasoning behind the 21% figure can be found here:
http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85798
You have to wonder what Cameron is playing at.
Most Scots polled do not want another referendum for at least ten years
Labour in Scotland need to go hard against the SNP administration from now until the elections there next year. They need to stop wrapping themselves up in process and talk about crap policing, NHS, education, universities subsidising the wealthy, etc etc. every day for the next six months.
They'll never win unless they hold the Scottish government to account, if they carry on as they are they'll probably not even come second.
Problem with that is that the majority do not want real left wing, they want centralish but with a heart ( unlike the Tories). They do not want socialist halfwits , rather a party that can run the country and try to help both rich and poor. That is not current labour party. They are neither real left wing or have a clue how to run anything.
Let's see how they feel after another Tory landslide in 2020.
The lies, smears and scare tactics over the next year or two will be quite something... But I trust the good sense of the British people to ignore this nonsense and vote OUT in the end.
CDU / CSU works like that. Basically, I would like a Federal Labour party, each country having its own Labour party including Northern Ireland.
By not allowing NI voters to vote on ideological grounds and instead on narrow sectarian lines we are simply perpetuating the problems of that province. Most voters in NI are actually not sectarian. I am sure many Democratic Unionists would support Labour. The NI Labour party could indeed also send delegates to the Irish Labour party.
The only common manifesto commitment will be on central government policy matters.
I agree.
There are already stories about possible loss of Saudi contracts as a result of the cancellation of this prison contract.
Seats with defence interests would be mad to vote labour in 2020. In the same way, seats with car building interests would be mad to vote Leave in the referendum.
P.S. I am not talking about "software".
Nicola is a different kettle of fish (sorry it is just inevitable when talking about the SNP leadership). I really don't see many lefties in England having a major problem with her having a big say in the next Parliament. Indeed many might think that she was more than capable of bringing an element of sanity to current Labour thinking.
Labour in Scotland are in a terrible mess, a party without a purpose if ever there was one. Their raison d'etre for the best part of 40 years was to keep the Tories out. Well, they are no longer relevant to that.
They were the Scottish establishment and most Scottish bodies are still packed with their fellow travellers who have made their own accommodations with the SNP. They have no chance of power and the replacements in that establishment will owe nothing to them.
I think we can be very confident that in 2020 the number of Scottish Labour MPs will be under 5, possibly quite a bit less. So they need to make an accommodation with the SNP themselves at a UK level and make that less offensive to rUK than it was in 2015. I think, with Sturgeon, it could be done but it means accepting more hard medicine in Scotland than I think most of them could bear.
If the answer is that the Scots will not tolerate a Conservative government in Westminster deciding on non-devolved issues then I suggest the Union is already brain dead and the sooner the life-support machine and artificial feeding apparatus are switched off the better. Then the two nations can work out some sort of amicable modus vivendi to replace the constant and destructive tension and nasty bickering we now have.
There are two separate constituents amongst the OUTers.
1. Immigration [ including many Labour to UKIP voters ]
2. Control of policy [ including vast numbers of Tories who want OUT ]
Yes, in many cases, their interests do coincide but they support the LEAVE campaign from different points of view.
But I disagree. Even if Scotland were to make such a catastrophic mistake Labour is dead. The parties in such a Scotland will be a left centre party based on most of the current SNP and a centre right party based around the Tories/Lib Dems and some tartan tories who don't see the need to vote SNP any longer.
The trouble with Outers is they are fulfilling a fantasy and a prejudice without having to take the consequences of their acts. This is not an election. If Leave wins, no one from Leave will be propelled into government and have to live with the political and economic upheaval.
The average two-child tax credit family are being paid over £11,200 a year in tax credits and child benefit. Over £900 a month.
That would make a lot of ordinary wage, non-recipients' eyes water.
Those in favour of the changes have failed to make the case, and I don't understand why unless this is part of some conveluted Tory strategy to keep Corbyn in place.
As a guess any concessions in the autumn will be both minor at the bottom end and accompanied by further TC cuts higher up he income scale - thereby saving even more money while encouraging job growth.
"The EU situation has now led to a virtual "wait and see" attitude for any exporting company regarding investments."
I can tell you from where I work that your statement isn't true.
The figures represent an example of the extent of Brown's massive inrease in spending between 2001-10.
Also it points to the difficulty of implimenting the alternative offered by Frank Field which purports to protect the lower paid. It would make for a massive marginal rate of taxation for the higher paid.
Given that here is no such thing as a disinterested source of information, I find an outright declaration of partiality somewhat reassuring.
The Tories have seen their biggest increase in the polls since the election in Scotland. Anyway Osborne will not win a landslide more likely largest party in a hung parliament
Really ? Where did you get your figures from ?
THe government was cutting £4.4 bn from a total bill supposedly of £28bn. Why didn't they start hacking £4.4bn from the top ?
Most centrist voters backed the Tories in yesterday's BMG
Currently they have the worst of both worlds - they aren't any longer saying the cuts are a good thing, and they aren't offering a clear alternative, but punting it to the autumn statement for two uncomfortable weeks. As a result, the polling on the issue has worsened markedly from the initially muffled picture.
Leaving aside political advantage, the real world issue which even hardened Conservatives would I'd think be able to accept is that nobody except the extremely rich can easily weather a sudden £1300/month drop in income, whether it's justified in principle or not. People adjust to what income they have and take mortgages, buy clothes, plan family budgets etc. accordingly. So it simply doesn't help to say "Ha, we've just noticed that you're getting an unreasonable amount, and we're going to take it all away next spring".
Manufacturing:
Q1 -0.1%
Q2 -0.5%
Q3 -0.3%
Source: ONS
"However, output in the manufacturing sector declined by 0.3%.
"The slowdown is being led by the manufacturing sector, which is seeing a renewed recession as output has now fallen for three consecutive quarters, suffering a 0.3% decline in the three months to September," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at research firm Markit.
"Manufacturing output has so far fallen 0.9% this year. Producers are struggling as weak demand in many overseas markets, notably China and other emerging nations, is being exacerbated by the appreciation of sterling." "
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34646496
These are facts. Not some output from a delusional character.
Just how fucking much are people being paid for their kids that the drop is that much !! No wonder we won't hit our emissions targets by 2050...