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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s LAB closes the gap once again in the October ComRe

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  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    JEO said:

    Without a warrant, every police force in the country can look up what naughty websites suspects have been visiting.

    Why do you think that is the proposal?
    It says they needed a warrant to access the content of the website, but not the web address. And that powers would be extended to the police, not just the intelligence services.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,994
    Read the popular press and you think Corbyn was lucky to have escaped 13 years in Guantanamo. Listen to what he says or read between the lines as in the article Fox mentioned earlier or listen to Corbynistas like McDonnel and you see a different picture and one I can see having considerable public approval.

    It's going to take time but this poll shows his personality and message is slowly getting through. This site is NOT a weathervane
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Cobblers - he did an EdM. Asked 6 identical questions and gave Cameron an open goal to spout PR lines.

    Only those desperate to make a story saw it as a win.

    Corbyn doesn't have a chance of winning an election but he's been surprisingly good at PMQs, he clearly got the better of Cameron this week.

    I'm not desperate for a story but Cameron refused to answer a question 6 times.

    Cameron spouted PR for sure, he always resorts to type.

  • JEO said:

    This seems like a huge overstep:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11964655/Police-to-be-granted-powers-to-view-your-internet-history.html

    Police are to get the power to view the web browsing history of everyone in the country.
    Home Secretary Theresa May will announce the plans when she introduces the Government's new surveillance bill in the House of Commons on Wednesday.

    The Telegraph understands the new powers for the police will form part of the new bill.

    It would make it a legal requirement for communications companies to retain all the web browsing history of customers for 12 months in case the spy agencies or police need to access them.

    Police would be able to access specific web addresses visited by customers.

    I think that's in line with phone data isn't it?
    Slight problem with that, and I am sure everybody but the thickest opportunistic criminal (if they haven't already) just use things like a VPN.

    Most VPN companies base their servers in other countries and make a point that their servers are shared connections and they can't easily work out who is accessing what even if they kept records, which a "good" VPN company won't. The result of this is your BT's, Virgin's etc have no bloody clue what they were looking at on the net, only that a load of encrypted packets of data are flowing to and from a user.

    The spooks can (according to Snowdon), but PC Plod won't.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,572
    Multiple-choice questions are always tricky to interpret, but it's evident that people prepared to support the tax credit cuts are down to a subset of hardcore Conservatives - lots of Tory MPs have peeled off, and the Government is no longer bothering to defend its own policy. Since they were in no-compromise good two weeks ago, it's obviously a setback, and has hardened significantly since the early polls, which were roughly a third each for "for", "against" and "dunno".

    Whether their revised policy is any good we shall see.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    PR is very effective, I speak as a former Dir of it. It's one of those share price affecting jobs.

    Cobblers - he did an EdM. Asked 6 identical questions and gave Cameron an open goal to spout PR lines.

    Only those desperate to make a story saw it as a win.

    Corbyn doesn't have a chance of winning an election but he's been surprisingly good at PMQs, he clearly got the better of Cameron this week.

    I'm not desperate for a story but Cameron refused to answer a question 6 times.

    Cameron spouted PR for sure, he always resorts to type.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,693
    edited October 2015

    JEO said:

    Without a warrant, every police force in the country can look up what naughty websites suspects have been visiting.

    Why do you think that is the proposal?
    I don't think we will know what the proposal is until the bill is actually published. The Telegraph article seems rather confused as it appears to indicate that a judicial warrant will not be necessary to see what websites you have been looking at but will be necessary to see what the content of the website is. Surely to do that all they have to do is go to the website themselves.

    Like I say, a very confused article.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I'm not desperate for a story but Cameron refused to answer a question 6 times.

    The Chancellor sets the budget, not the PM.

    And he said that...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,842
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    JEO said:

    Jonathan said:

    If the polls go up, Tories celebrate. If the polls go down, Tories celebrate.

    Conclusion: They're a happy bunch, probably still celebrating May, but there's little evidence of cognition.

    We're not celebrating. We're just not worried about polls five years from the next election when the opposition is a complete mess. As for lacking cognition, we're not the party that elected Jeremy Corbyn as their Prime Ministerial candidate.
    I'm quite happy that Corbyn's Labour have yet to completely implode in the polls. If he were on 25% and falling then they'd want to get rid of him sooner! If he can say at 30% for a couple of years then, like Gordon and Ed before him, Corbyn is safe until the election.
    IDS polled around 30 to 35%. It was coming third in the Brent East by election which did for him, he polled about what Howard got in 2005. Labour coming third in a by election behind UKIP would be the most likely catalyst for Corbyn's fall
    The Tories and Labour have fundamentally different systems and, even more crucially, cultures relating to the removal of leaders.

    In any case, Labour *did* come third behind UKIP in Newark and Miliband stayed.
    Hague lost Romsey in a by election and stayed but by IDS they had lost patience. If Labour come third in a by election in a northern Labour seat or a marginal they held until 2010 it will be curtains for Corbyn
    You would think so but then there are still the questions of how it is to be done, and how you ensure that the far left doesn't win again.

    With IDS, the parliamentary party just didn't see him as a winner. Now, that might very well have a close parallel with Corbyn but to take that parallel further, there was sufficient discipline within the Tory MPs to nominate only one person so as to avoid an election. Do Labour have someone of equivalent stature to Michael Howard to which they can turn, and even if they do, can they prevent, through whatever means, the far left from reaching the nominations threshold?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''It's going to take time but this poll shows his personality and message is slowly getting through. This site is NOT a weathervane.''

    On what happened in May 2015, I'm afraid the evidence is completely against you.

    The only problem for the PB tories is they were not correct enough. The brilliant poll filleting analyses of posters like chestnut would have saved many a poster a few quid. But hey, suit yourself.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Where desperate to make a story rules out all even the Tory press who called it for Corbyn. Nice spin, but pointless since PMQs is about morale on the backbenches, and MPs will know what they saw.

    Cobblers - he did an EdM. Asked 6 identical questions and gave Cameron an open goal to spout PR lines.

    Only those desperate to make a story saw it as a win.

    Corbyn doesn't have a chance of winning an election but he's been surprisingly good at PMQs, he clearly got the better of Cameron this week.

  • Oh dear. Just imagine if this had happened in my day.

    Conservative Association hits back at Labour Club’s “Dress as a Tory” Halloween party

    http://thetab.com/uk/cambridge/2015/10/29/conservative-association-hits-back-at-labour-clubs-dress-as-a-tory-halloween-party-60237
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    PR is very effective, I speak as a former Dir of it. It's one of those share price affecting jobs.

    Cobblers - he did an EdM. Asked 6 identical questions and gave Cameron an open goal to spout PR lines.

    Only those desperate to make a story saw it as a win.

    Corbyn doesn't have a chance of winning an election but he's been surprisingly good at PMQs, he clearly got the better of Cameron this week.

    I'm not desperate for a story but Cameron refused to answer a question 6 times.

    Cameron spouted PR for sure, he always resorts to type.

    That's right, Cameron's "real job" was in PR.

  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    FPT:

    MrsB said:

    To anyone who thinks there will be any fairness in the way the boundaries are redrawn

    Get real. Have you been through a boundaries review? I have. The Commission will say they know exactly what they are doing and are impervious to political influence. Then they will listen to the people who employ barristers to argue their case (not called barristers while they are conducting a review - and won't you get belittled if you don't know that). And as in the majority of the country the only people who can afford paid representation are the Tories, hey presto, everyone else is outgunned and the boundaries are bought by the Tories to suit them.

    In a local government boundary review I witnessed outright lies from the Tories, bought wholesale by the Commission, with no effort to investigate whether they were true or not, despite protests from other parties. In a parliamentary boundary review I witnessed not only distortion of what was appropriate locally but misogeny by the person chairing it to the extent that he reduced one woman to tears (not me) and complete intolerance of anyone who didn't have a legal background and didn't therefore have all the correct terminology etc - despite the claims made of enabling participation. And when I tried to make a complaint I was told that I couldn't because it would affect the person's career prospects!
    So excuse me for being very very very cynical about this. We are going to end up with gerrymandered boundaries and the Tories gaining a large electoral advantage. And it is starting now, as it is not in their interests to increase the electoral roll, as those not on it are less likely to vote Tory. So reduce the electorate in Labour seats, then say those seats are not big enough in terms of voters, then amalgamate them, reducing the number of seats.
    We all know this. Makes me furious.

    Then, with respect, the Lib Dems should have allowed the boundary changes through when they still had a say in the process. Killing them off in the last parliament turned out to be unhelpful in the long run and didn't even help them save seats in the short term.
    Lib Dems blocked the parliamentary boundary changes because the Conservatives scuttled House of Lords reform.
    Well, it was what they used as an excuse for something they were desperate to do in what turned out to be a doomed attempt to save some seats.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    TBH, the overweening LD message on here was they couldn't be beaten - we endured it for years.

    And a few brave voices Said No. That is the message for me from GE2015.
    taffys said:

    ''It's going to take time but this poll shows his personality and message is slowly getting through. This site is NOT a weathervane.''

    On what happened in May 2015, I'm afraid the evidence is completely against you.

    The only problem for the PB tories is they were not correct enough. The brilliant poll filleting analyses of posters like chestnut would have saved many a poster a few quid. But hey, suit yourself.

  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Why do people still believe polls, Local Election Bye Election results are a far better guide.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited October 2015
    I usually stick your posts in the Everything Is Good For Labour box - I'm confused what you're saying here

    Where desperate to make a story rules out all even the Tory press who called it for Corbyn. Nice spin, but pointless since PMQs is about morale on the backbenches, and MPs will know what they saw.

    Cobblers - he did an EdM. Asked 6 identical questions and gave Cameron an open goal to spout PR lines.

    Only those desperate to make a story saw it as a win.

    Corbyn doesn't have a chance of winning an election but he's been surprisingly good at PMQs, he clearly got the better of Cameron this week.

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,933

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    JEO said:

    Jonathan said:

    If the polls go up, Tories celebrate. If the polls go down, Tories celebrate.

    Conclusion: They're a happy bunch, probably still celebrating May, but there's little evidence of cognition.

    We're not celebrating. We're just not worried about polls five years from the next election when the opposition is a complete mess. As for lacking cognition, we're not the party that elected Jeremy Corbyn as their Prime Ministerial candidate.
    I'm quite happy that Corbyn's Labour have yet to completely implode in the polls. If he were on 25% and falling then they'd want to get rid of him sooner! If he can say at 30% for a couple of years then, like Gordon and Ed before him, Corbyn is safe until the election.
    IDS polled around 30 to 35%. It was coming third in the Brent East by election which did for him, he polled about what Howard got in 2005. Labour coming third in a by election behind UKIP would be the most likely catalyst for Corbyn's fall
    The Tories and Labour have fundamentally different systems and, even more crucially, cultures relating to the removal of leaders.

    In any case, Labour *did* come third behind UKIP in Newark and Miliband stayed.
    Labour once came third with 2% (not a misprint) of the vote in a By Election in which Peter Mandelson was involved and no heads rolled.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newbury_by-election,_1993
  • currystar said:

    Why do people still believe polls, Local Election Bye Election results are a far better guide.

    23.6% Lab to Con swing in Barrow.

    Labour's dash to the cliff would leave lemmings panting for breath.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Is it bye or by elections? I assumed it was *by* elections unless the resident candidate was a gonner.
    currystar said:

    Why do people still believe polls, Local Election Bye Election results are a far better guide.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,842

    TBH, the overweening LD message on here was they couldn't be beaten - we endured it for years.

    And a few brave voices Said No. That is the message for me from GE2015.

    taffys said:

    ''It's going to take time but this poll shows his personality and message is slowly getting through. This site is NOT a weathervane.''

    On what happened in May 2015, I'm afraid the evidence is completely against you.

    The only problem for the PB tories is they were not correct enough. The brilliant poll filleting analyses of posters like chestnut would have saved many a poster a few quid. But hey, suit yourself.

    Speaking of which, has anyone heard from Mark Senior since the election?
  • I don't think we will know what the proposal is until the bill is actually published.

    Exactly.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,842

    FPT:

    MrsB said:

    To anyone who thinks there will be any fairness in the way the boundaries are redrawn

    Get real. Have you been through a boundaries review? I have. The Commission will say they know exactly what they are doing and are impervious to political influence. Then they will listen to the people who employ barristers to argue their case (not called barristers while they are conducting a review - and won't you get belittled if you don't know that). And as in the majority of the country the only people who can afford paid representation are the Tories, hey presto, everyone else is outgunned and the boundaries are bought by the Tories to suit them.

    In a local government boundary review I witnessed outright lies from the Tories, bought wholesale by the Commission, with no effort to investigate whether they were true or not, despite protests from other parties. In a parliamentary boundary review I witnessed not only distortion of what was appropriate locally but misogeny by the person chairing it to the extent that he reduced one woman to tears (not me) and complete intolerance of anyone who didn't have a legal background and didn't therefore have all the correct terminology etc - despite the claims made of enabling participation. And when I tried to make a complaint I was told that I couldn't because it would affect the person's career prospects!
    So excuse me for being very very very cynical about this. We are going to end up with gerrymandered boundaries and the Tories gaining a large electoral advantage. And it is starting now, as it is not in their interests to increase the electoral roll, as those not on it are less likely to vote Tory. So reduce the electorate in Labour seats, then say those seats are not big enough in terms of voters, then amalgamate them, reducing the number of seats.
    We all know this. Makes me furious.

    Then, with respect, the Lib Dems should have allowed the boundary changes through when they still had a say in the process. Killing them off in the last parliament turned out to be unhelpful in the long run and didn't even help them save seats in the short term.
    Lib Dems blocked the parliamentary boundary changes because the Conservatives scuttled House of Lords reform.
    Well, it was what they used as an excuse for something they were desperate to do in what turned out to be a doomed attempt to save some seats.
    I'm fairly sure I remember a report that said that on the revised boundaries, they'd have been down to four, so in that sense they were successful. i don't know which the four were. Presumably Farron and Carmichael would be two.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,422
    edited October 2015

    FPT:

    MrsB said:

    To anyone who thinks there will be any fairness in the way the boundaries are redrawn

    Get real. Have you been through a boundaries review? I have. The Commission will say they know exactly what they are doing and are impervious to political influence. Then they will listen to the people who employ barristers to argue their case (not called barristers while they are conducting a review - and won't you get belittled if you don't know that). And as in the majority of the country the only people who can afford paid representation are the Tories, hey presto, everyone else is outgunned and the boundaries are bought by the Tories to suit them.

    In a local government boundary review I witnessed outright lies from the Tories, bought wholesale by the Commission, with no effort to investigate whether they were true or not, despite protests from other parties. In a parliamentary boundary review I witnessed not only distortion of what was appropriate locally but misogeny by the person chairing it to the extent that he reduced one woman to tears (not me) and complete intolerance of anyone who didn't have a legal background and didn't therefore have all the correct terminology etc - despite the claims made of enabling participation. And when I tried to make a complaint I was told that I couldn't because it would affect the person's career prospects!
    So excuse me for being very very very cynical about this. We are going to end up with gerrymandered boundaries and the Tories gaining a large electoral advantage. And it is starting now, as it is not in their interests to increase the electoral roll, as those not on it are less likely to vote Tory. So reduce the electorate in Labour seats, then say those seats are not big enough in terms of voters, then amalgamate them, reducing the number of seats.
    We all know this. Makes me furious.

    Then, with respect, the Lib Dems should have allowed the boundary changes through when they still had a say in the process. Killing them off in the last parliament turned out to be unhelpful in the long run and didn't even help them save seats in the short term.
    Lib Dems blocked the parliamentary boundary changes because the Conservatives scuttled House of Lords reform.
    Well, it was what they used as an excuse for something they were desperate to do in what turned out to be a doomed attempt to save some seats.
    I'm fairly sure I remember a report that said that on the revised boundaries, they'd have been down to four, so in that sense they were successful. i don't know which the four were. Presumably Farron and Carmichael would be two.
    Ceredigion and one other.
    Definitely not Pugh.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,841
    edited October 2015

    Where desperate to make a story rules out all even the Tory press who called it for Corbyn. Nice spin, but pointless since PMQs is about morale on the backbenches, and MPs will know what they saw.

    Cobblers - he did an EdM. Asked 6 identical questions and gave Cameron an open goal to spout PR lines.

    Only those desperate to make a story saw it as a win.

    Corbyn doesn't have a chance of winning an election but he's been surprisingly good at PMQs, he clearly got the better of Cameron this week.

    They will have seen that Corbyn is a steady performer but is completely unable to rally his MPs behind him?

    They will have seen that Cameron holds him in such high regard that he doesn't even feel the need to come up with a plausible evasion strategy, simply spouting PR soundbites instead?

    They will have seen that Corbyn cannot think on his feet to try and show the government has no answers on several key issues, or worse, that Corbyn is unaware that there is more to life than welfare?

    Cameron used to marmalise Gordon Brown. He used to hold his own against Blair. He was rather disengaged against Miliband and is going through the motions against Corbyn. He is matching the performance to the opponent. That's not good for anyone.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,011
    edited October 2015

    FPT:

    MrsB said:

    To anyone who thinks there will be any fairness in the way the boundaries are redrawn

    Get real. Have you been through a boundaries review? I have. The Commission will say they know exactly what they are doing and are impervious to political influence. Then they will listen to the people who employ barristers to argue their case (not called barristers while they are

    In a local government boundary review I witnessed outright lies from the Tories, bought wholesale by the Commission, with no effort to investigate whether they were true or not, despite protests from other parties. In a parliamentary boundary review I witnessed not only distortion of what was appropriate locally but misogeny by the person chairing it to the extent that he reduced one woman to tears (not me) and complete intolerance of anyone who didn't have a legal background and didn't therefore have all the correct terminology etc - despite the claims made of enabling participation. And when I tried to make a complaint I was told that I couldn't because it would affect the person's career prospects!
    So excuse me for being very very very cynical about this. We are going to end up with gerrymandered boundaries and the Tories gaining a large electoral advantage. And it is starting now, as it is not in their interests to increase the electoral roll, as those not on it are less likely to vote Tory. So reduce the electorate in Labour seats, then say those seats are not big enough in terms of voters, then amalgamate them, reducing the number of seats.
    We all know this. Makes me furious.

    Then, with respect, the Lib Dems should have allowed the boundary changes through when they still had a say in the process. Killing them off in the last parliament turned out to be unhelpful in the long run and didn't even help them save seats in the short term.
    Lib Dems blocked the parliamentary boundary changes because the Conservatives scuttled House of Lords reform.
    Well, it was what they used as an excuse for something they were desperate to do in what turned out to be a doomed attempt to save some seats.
    I'm fairly sure I remember a report that said that on the revised boundaries, they'd have been down to four, so in that sense they were successful. i don't know which the four were. Presumably Farron and Carmichael would be two.
    Ceredigion and Leeds whatever Greg Mullholland holds would be the other two.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,842
    Scott_P said:

    I'm not desperate for a story but Cameron refused to answer a question 6 times.

    The Chancellor sets the budget, not the PM.

    And he said that...
    It's still the government's budget and the PM takes the responsibility for the government's actions.

    Dave's timidity on the tax credits was foolish. He should have come out and said "yes, some people will lose." Everyone knows this so why try to hide it? The notion that no-one should ever lose out from any change the government ever makes is the politics of the playground: 'it's not fair: you're taking someone else's money away from me!'.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    CLAPS anyone who can't see it is kidding themselves.

    I compared Corbyn poorly to EdM FFS.
    ydoethur said:

    Where desperate to make a story rules out all even the Tory press who called it for Corbyn. Nice spin, but pointless since PMQs is about morale on the backbenches, and MPs will know what they saw.

    Cobblers - he did an EdM. Asked 6 identical questions and gave Cameron an open goal to spout PR lines.

    Only those desperate to make a story saw it as a win.

    Corbyn doesn't have a chance of winning an election but he's been surprisingly good at PMQs, he clearly got the better of Cameron this week.

    They will have seen that Corbyn is a steady performer but is completely unable to rally his MPs behind him?

    They will have seen that Cameron holds him in such high regard that he doesn't even feel the need to come up with a plausible evasion strategy, simply spouting PR soundbites instead?

    They will have seen that Corbyn cannot think on his feet to try and show the government has no answers on any key issues, or worse, that Corbyn is unaware that there is more to life than welfare?

    Cameron used to marmalise Gordon Brown. He used to hold his own against Blair. He was rather disengaged against Miliband and is going through the motions against Corbyn. He is matching the performance to the opponent. That's not good for anyone.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    ydoethur said:

    Where desperate to make a story rules out all even the Tory press who called it for Corbyn. Nice spin, but pointless since PMQs is about morale on the backbenches, and MPs will know what they saw.

    Cobblers - he did an EdM. Asked 6 identical questions and gave Cameron an open goal to spout PR lines.

    Only those desperate to make a story saw it as a win.

    Corbyn doesn't have a chance of winning an election but he's been surprisingly good at PMQs, he clearly got the better of Cameron this week.

    They will have seen that Corbyn is a steady performer but is completely unable to rally his MPs behind him?

    They will have seen that Cameron holds him in such high regard that he doesn't even feel the need to come up with a plausible evasion strategy, simply spouting PR soundbites instead?

    They will have seen that Corbyn cannot think on his feet to try and show the government has no answers on several key issues, or worse, that Corbyn is unaware that there is more to life than welfare?

    Cameron used to marmalise Gordon Brown. He used to hold his own against Blair. He was rather disengaged against Miliband and is going through the motions against Corbyn. He is matching the performance to the opponent. That's not good for anyone.
    His remark to Farron was crass at best.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,841
    edited October 2015
    @TSE are you sure about Ceredigion? I thought it was to be merged with Preseli Pembrokeshire which is a Conservative stronghold. Added together, there would be about a 6000 Conservative majority in that seat.

    EDIT - I was wrong. It would be a 5,000 majority, but Labour would be in second.
  • If the courts find Alastair Carmichael has been a very naughty boy the Lib Dems could go into the next election with only 3 notional holds and UKIP none.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I thought the "it's not generous, it's selfish" line later in PMQs was spot on but too late - he's right.

    Scott_P said:

    I'm not desperate for a story but Cameron refused to answer a question 6 times.

    The Chancellor sets the budget, not the PM.

    And he said that...
    It's still the government's budget and the PM takes the responsibility for the government's actions.

    Dave's timidity on the tax credits was foolish. He should have come out and said "yes, some people will lose." Everyone knows this so why try to hide it? The notion that no-one should ever lose out from any change the government ever makes is the politics of the playground: 'it's not fair: you're taking someone else's money away from me!'.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Why? Isn't it everyday knock about?

    ydoethur said:

    Where desperate to make a story rules out all even the Tory press who called it for Corbyn. Nice spin, but pointless since PMQs is about morale on the backbenches, and MPs will know what they saw.

    Cobblers - he did an EdM. Asked 6 identical questions and gave Cameron an open goal to spout PR lines.

    Only those desperate to make a story saw it as a win.

    Corbyn doesn't have a chance of winning an election but he's been surprisingly good at PMQs, he clearly got the better of Cameron this week.

    They will have seen that Corbyn is a steady performer but is completely unable to rally his MPs behind him?

    They will have seen that Cameron holds him in such high regard that he doesn't even feel the need to come up with a plausible evasion strategy, simply spouting PR soundbites instead?

    They will have seen that Corbyn cannot think on his feet to try and show the government has no answers on several key issues, or worse, that Corbyn is unaware that there is more to life than welfare?

    Cameron used to marmalise Gordon Brown. He used to hold his own against Blair. He was rather disengaged against Miliband and is going through the motions against Corbyn. He is matching the performance to the opponent. That's not good for anyone.
    His remark to Farron was crass at best.

  • Speaking of which, has anyone heard from Mark Senior since the election?

    He has been on here a few times:

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/profile/comments/22/MarkSenior
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,842

    FPT:

    MrsB said:

    To anyone who thinks there will be any fairness in the way the boundaries are redrawn

    Get real. Have you been through a boundaries review? I have. The Commission will say they know exactly what they are doing and are impervious to political influence. Then they will listen to the people who employ barristers to argue their case (not called barristers while they are

    In a local government boundary review I witnessed outright lies from the Tories, bought wholesale by the Commission, with no effort to investigate whether they were true or not, despite protests from other parties. In a parliamentary boundary review I witnessed not only distortion of what was appropriate locally but misogeny by the person chairing it to the extent that he reduced one woman to tears (not me) and complete intolerance of anyone who didn't have a legal background and didn't therefore have all the correct terminology etc - despite the claims made of enabling participation. And when I tried to make a complaint I was told that I couldn't because it would affect the person's career prospects!
    So excuse me for being very very very cynical about this. We are going to end up with gerrymandered boundaries and the Tories gaining a large electoral advantage. And it is starting now, as it is not in their interests to increase the electoral roll, as those not on it are less likely to vote Tory. So reduce the electorate in Labour seats, then say those seats are not big enough in terms of voters, then amalgamate them, reducing the number of seats.
    We all know this. Makes me furious.

    Then, with respect, the Lib Dems should have allowed the boundary changes through when they still had a say in the process. Killing them off in the last parliament turned out to be unhelpful in the long run and didn't even help them save seats in the short term.
    Lib Dems blocked the parliamentary boundary changes because the Conservatives scuttled House of Lords reform.
    Well, it was what they used as an excuse for something they were desperate to do in what turned out to be a doomed attempt to save some seats.
    I'm fairly sure I remember a report that said that on the revised boundaries, they'd have been down to four, so in that sense they were successful. i don't know which the four were. Presumably Farron and Carmichael would be two.
    Ceredigion and Leeds whatever Greg Mullholland holds would be the other two.
    I'll take your word about Ceredigion, of which I know little, but Leeds NW I'm surprised about: Mulholland's majority is less than 3000 and there are precious few other Lib Dem voters around there.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,422

    If the courts find Alastair Carmichael has been a very naughty boy the Lib Dems could go into the next election with only 3 notional holds and UKIP none.

    When is Edinburgh West btw - noone voted for an independent MP there. Reminds me a bit of the Bradford East shennanigans last parliament.

    Don't forget David Ward ran under a Lib Dem banner !
  • ydoethur said:

    @TSE are you sure about Ceredigion? I thought it was to be merged with Preseli Pembrokeshire which is a Conservative stronghold. Added together, there would be about a 6000 Conservative majority in that seat.

    EDIT - I was wrong. It would be a 5,000 majority, but Labour would be in second.

    Yup.

    @TSEofPB: From earlier on this year @lewis_baston's analysis on boundary changes. https://t.co/LutjCIuJPG
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,841

    If the courts find Alastair Carmichael has been a very naughty boy the Lib Dems could go into the next election with only 3 notional holds and UKIP none.

    Surely Orkney would still be considered a Lib Dem hold? What happened in Oldham and Saddleworth - was that considered a 'Labour win' or 'Labour hold' this time around?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I emailed @Financier last week at his work address and no reply. Anyone else heard from him?

    I'll try his home email later. We had dinner and swapped books so hope all is well.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited October 2015
    Why? Isn't it everyday knock about?

    Perhaps it was a hint. With labour where they are, the libs should be positioning themselves as a sober, sensible loonie-free left of centre party ready to take up the slack. There should be measured criticism of the government, and labour's excesses too. And consideration of what turned the libs into electoral poison

    Farron, as pointed out below, is a shriller socialist than many Corbynites.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    currystar said:

    Why do people still believe polls, Local Election Bye Election results are a far better guide.

    23.6% Lab to Con swing in Barrow.

    Labour's dash to the cliff would leave lemmings panting for breath.
    Trumping that: a 32.7% Con to LD swing in Wealden. Farron has risen.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    I emailed @Financier last week at his work address and no reply. Anyone else heard from him?

    I'll try his home email later. We had dinner and swapped books so hope all is well.

    More importantly, what about knocker @Neil ??
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @TheScreamingEagles

    'If the courts find Alastair Carmichael has been a very naughty boy the Lib Dems could go into the next election with only 3 notional holds and UKIP none.'


    Another dockside hooker pounding on the cards ?

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,841
    edited October 2015

    ydoethur said:

    @TSE are you sure about Ceredigion? I thought it was to be merged with Preseli Pembrokeshire which is a Conservative stronghold. Added together, there would be about a 6000 Conservative majority in that seat.

    EDIT - I was wrong. It would be a 5,000 majority, but Labour would be in second.

    Yup.

    @TSEofPB: From earlier on this year @lewis_baston's analysis on boundary changes. https://t.co/LutjCIuJPG
    I've looked at that now and I disagree with it. His assumption is highly suspect: 'The Lib Dems would probably manage to retain a seat based on their current Ceredigion.' But the current Ceredigion would have been obliterated, merged with the Preseli area. The Liberal Democrats have no strength in North Pembrokeshire. The suggestion that they could hold a marginal like Ceredigion added to a safe Conservative seat (formerly a Conservative/Labour marginal) does not work mathematically.* So actually, on his figures the Lib Dems are down to three.

    *It might just have been enough had the merger been with Brecon and Radnor, but that wouldn't have met the population requirements.
  • ydoethur said:

    If the courts find Alastair Carmichael has been a very naughty boy the Lib Dems could go into the next election with only 3 notional holds and UKIP none.

    Surely Orkney would still be considered a Lib Dem hold? What happened in Oldham and Saddleworth - was that considered a 'Labour win' or 'Labour hold' this time around?
    Oldham was always a Lab hold. The Lib Dems never took the seat.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    IIRC @JohnO said he was out of sorts right now.
    isam said:

    I emailed @Financier last week at his work address and no reply. Anyone else heard from him?

    I'll try his home email later. We had dinner and swapped books so hope all is well.

    More importantly, what about knocker @Neil ??
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,841

    ydoethur said:

    If the courts find Alastair Carmichael has been a very naughty boy the Lib Dems could go into the next election with only 3 notional holds and UKIP none.

    Surely Orkney would still be considered a Lib Dem hold? What happened in Oldham and Saddleworth - was that considered a 'Labour win' or 'Labour hold' this time around?
    Oldham was always a Lab hold. The Lib Dems never took the seat.
    And I would expect the Liberal Democrats to hold Orkney as well (*puts tin hat on*).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,011
    edited October 2015
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    If the courts find Alastair Carmichael has been a very naughty boy the Lib Dems could go into the next election with only 3 notional holds and UKIP none.

    Surely Orkney would still be considered a Lib Dem hold? What happened in Oldham and Saddleworth - was that considered a 'Labour win' or 'Labour hold' this time around?
    Oldham was always a Lab hold. The Lib Dems never took the seat.
    And I would expect the Liberal Democrats to hold Orkney as well (*puts tin hat on*).
    Will all come down tactical unionist votes.

    If I lived in Orkney or Shetland (and I thank Allah I don't), I'd vote Lib Dem as I couldn't bear having narrow little nationalists like the SNP or UKIP representing me. :lol:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,422
    @isam I think @Neil is owed on Brighton a few hundred from Mark Senior iirc. Not that I've seen much of either of them.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Cobblers - he did an EdM. Asked 6 identical questions and gave Cameron an open goal to spout PR lines.

    Only those desperate to make a story saw it as a win.

    Corbyn doesn't have a chance of winning an election but he's been surprisingly good at PMQs, he clearly got the better of Cameron this week.

    63% of Torygraph readers thought Corbyn won
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,842
    edited October 2015

    If the courts find Alastair Carmichael has been a very naughty boy the Lib Dems could go into the next election with only 3 notional holds and UKIP none.

    The SNP could go in notionally defending every seat in Scotland, if they do take a by-election in O&S.

    (Yes, I know 'defences' are a bit ambiguous when there's a by-election gain since the last election but there'd be no doubt that people would see the SNP as defending it, with the Lib Dems looking to 'regain').
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,980
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I have thought of a better example for demonstrating the nonsense of that question.

    Would you like, tax-free:
    a) £10,000?
    b) £100,000?
    c) £1,000,000?
    d) £10,000,000?

    The poll shows 0% of people want a million pounds for free. Simply astounding.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    What exactly did Corbyn win..he asked six questions...and came away with nowt..that is not a win..
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,980
    Mr. Owls, and Hague used to wipe the floor with Blair.
  • If the courts find Alastair Carmichael has been a very naughty boy the Lib Dems could go into the next election with only 3 notional holds and UKIP none.

    The SNP could go in notionally defending every seat in Scotland, if they do take a by-election in O&S.

    (Yes, I know 'defences' are a bit ambiguous when there's a by-election gain since the last election but there'd be no doubt that people would see the SNP as defending it, with the Lib Dems looking to 'regain').
    On election night I reported Rochester and Strood as Con HOLD.

    Felt it didn't convey the full majesty of that result.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    What exactly did Corbyn win..he asked six questions...and came away with nowt..that is not a win..

    Who Won PMQs
    THANK YOU FOR VOTING
    72% AGREE WITH YOU THAT CORBYN WON PMQs
    9305 voters


    Nowt equals complete climb down from Osborne?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited October 2015
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    @TSE are you sure about Ceredigion? I thought it was to be merged with Preseli Pembrokeshire which is a Conservative stronghold. Added together, there would be about a 6000 Conservative majority in that seat.

    EDIT - I was wrong. It would be a 5,000 majority, but Labour would be in second.

    Yup.

    @TSEofPB: From earlier on this year @lewis_baston's analysis on boundary changes. https://t.co/LutjCIuJPG
    I've looked at that now and I disagree with it. His assumption is highly suspect: 'The Lib Dems would probably manage to retain a seat based on their current Ceredigion.' But the current Ceredigion would have been obliterated, merged with the Preseli area. The Liberal Democrats have no strength in North Pembrokeshire. The suggestion that they could hold a marginal like Ceredigion added to a safe Conservative seat (formerly a Conservative/Labour marginal) does not work mathematically.* So actually, on his figures the Lib Dems are down to three.

    *It might just have been enough had the merger been with Brecon and Radnor, but that wouldn't have met the population requirements.
    You can now see why the Tories want 600 seats. It has little to do with savings. After all, we have had more than 600 seats for god knows how many years. And secondly, why is cutting the number of people's representatives a good idea ?

    The whole purpose of reducing the number of seats is that it effectively almost ensures that 90% of seats will have to be adjusted. It does not affect Labour that much but certainly will affect the smaller parties where they would not necessarily have the same level of support in the neighbouring seats.

    Also, a seat today with the same number of voters as the average will not necessarily get through unscathed since neighbouring seats may need to be adjusted.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,841
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    @TSE are you sure about Ceredigion? I thought it was to be merged with Preseli Pembrokeshire which is a Conservative stronghold. Added together, there would be about a 6000 Conservative majority in that seat.

    EDIT - I was wrong. It would be a 5,000 majority, but Labour would be in second.

    Yup.

    @TSEofPB: From earlier on this year @lewis_baston's analysis on boundary changes. https://t.co/LutjCIuJPG
    I've looked at that now and I disagree with it. His assumption is highly suspect: 'The Lib Dems would probably manage to retain a seat based on their current Ceredigion.' But the current Ceredigion would have been obliterated, merged with the Preseli area. The Liberal Democrats have no strength in North Pembrokeshire. The suggestion that they could hold a marginal like Ceredigion added to a safe Conservative seat (formerly a Conservative/Labour marginal) does not work mathematically.* So actually, on his figures the Lib Dems are down to three.

    *It might just have been enough had the merger been with Brecon and Radnor, but that wouldn't have met the population requirements.
    In fact, having looked carefully at the boundaries as proposed (p. 16) if anything other than Conservative the new Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire would be a notional Labour seat, as quite a large Conservative-leaning area has been left off while Newcastle Emlyn, which is Labour-leaning, has been added. So it would be a marginal, but not as Baston thought, for the Liberal Democrats would be trailing in third - quite a poor third at that.
  • Cobblers - he did an EdM. Asked 6 identical questions and gave Cameron an open goal to spout PR lines.

    Only those desperate to make a story saw it as a win.

    Corbyn doesn't have a chance of winning an election but he's been surprisingly good at PMQs, he clearly got the better of Cameron this week.

    63% of Torygraph readers thought Corbyn won
    all those £1.40 entryists...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Cobblers - he did an EdM. Asked 6 identical questions and gave Cameron an open goal to spout PR lines.

    Only those desperate to make a story saw it as a win.

    Corbyn doesn't have a chance of winning an election but he's been surprisingly good at PMQs, he clearly got the better of Cameron this week.

    63% of Torygraph readers thought Corbyn won
    Actually its 72%
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    ydoethur said:

    In fact, having looked carefully at the boundaries as proposed (p. 16) if anything other than Conservative the new Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire would be a notional Labour seat, ... the Liberal Democrats would be trailing in third - quite a poor third at that.

    Now we see why Mrs B was in such a tizzy earlier
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049

    I thought the "it's not generous, it's selfish" line later in PMQs was spot on but too late - he's right.

    Scott_P said:

    I'm not desperate for a story but Cameron refused to answer a question 6 times.

    The Chancellor sets the budget, not the PM.

    And he said that...
    It's still the government's budget and the PM takes the responsibility for the government's actions.

    Dave's timidity on the tax credits was foolish. He should have come out and said "yes, some people will lose." Everyone knows this so why try to hide it? The notion that no-one should ever lose out from any change the government ever makes is the politics of the playground: 'it's not fair: you're taking someone else's money away from me!'.
    The best line in PMQs yday was not the one about LD MPs, it was the tractor stats joke.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @HTScotPol: .@IanMurrayMP says Labour will lead the campaign to keep the UK in the EU #scotlab15
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    BJO ....a complete climbdown from Osborne....must have missed that....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JournoStephen: .@IanMurrayMP attacks @RuthDavidsonMSP for her photo-ops: "Get on your bike or take a hike". #ScotLab15

    Right...

    https://twitter.com/ruthdavidsonmsp/status/660104664826961920
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,841
    Scott_P said:

    ydoethur said:

    In fact, having looked carefully at the boundaries as proposed (p. 16) if anything other than Conservative the new Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire would be a notional Labour seat, ... the Liberal Democrats would be trailing in third - quite a poor third at that.

    Now we see why Mrs B was in such a tizzy earlier
    It's not all bad news for the Liberal Democrats - they would stand a fighting chance in South Powys even though both seats it was to be formed from are Conservative held at the moment (as a lot of Conservative areas would be put in Glyndwr and Clwyd South). I just don't think it would be one to be taken for granted.

    The fun would happen in and around Cardiff - e.g. Bridgend, which on those boundaries looks a decent shout for a Conservative seat to me, while Cardiff North and Caerphilly would go the other way. Cardiff Central and Penarth might be interesting - anywhere that contains such a remarkable social mix as Butetown and Penarth is always going to be hard to call!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @HTScotPol: .@jeremycorbyn tells #scotlab15 that winning in Scotland in May a priority

    Unlucky...
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,933
    OT Times article:
    "increased CO2 in the atmosphere enhances plant growth" says "Tory peer Viscount Ridley, owner of the land on which England’s largest open-cast coal mine operates"

    http://www.theengineer.co.uk/blog/science-and-climate-sceptics-should-come-clean/1021325.article?cmpid=tenews_1718517
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JamieRoss7: We've been given a script for Corbyn's speech. We're a out eight sentences in and he's already gone wildly off-script to upset journalists.

    @HTScotPol: .@jeremycorbyn script for #scotlab15: "I have hugely enjoyed working with Kezia Dugdale." That 'hugely' missing from delivered speech
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,980
    Mr. Song, bloody evil Tory supporting working class coal miners... wait a minute...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Jonathan said:

    If the polls go up, Tories celebrate. If the polls go down, Tories celebrate.

    Conclusion: They're a happy bunch, probably still celebrating May, but there's little evidence of cognition.

    Who needs polls when we have JackW telling us Corbyn will never be Prime Minister
    Incorrect.

    I advised PB that :

    Jeremy Corbyn Will Never be First Lord Of The Treasury

    AKA JCWNBFLOTT

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,842

    If the courts find Alastair Carmichael has been a very naughty boy the Lib Dems could go into the next election with only 3 notional holds and UKIP none.

    The SNP could go in notionally defending every seat in Scotland, if they do take a by-election in O&S.

    (Yes, I know 'defences' are a bit ambiguous when there's a by-election gain since the last election but there'd be no doubt that people would see the SNP as defending it, with the Lib Dems looking to 'regain').
    On election night I reported Rochester and Strood as Con HOLD.

    Felt it didn't convey the full majesty of that result.
    "UKIPTPD evicted" would be more accurate?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    IIRC @JohnO said he was out of sorts right now.

    isam said:

    I emailed @Financier last week at his work address and no reply. Anyone else heard from him?

    I'll try his home email later. We had dinner and swapped books so hope all is well.

    More importantly, what about knocker @Neil ??
    No, he's fine but is not posting here. I don't know if/when he will return.
  • OGH "The Tory position has not been helped by analysts suggesting that the impact on many families will not be alleviated that much by his new National Living Wage."

    Having watched This Week, Julia Hartley-Brewer made a much better case of the Tax Credits change than all the Govt spokes people that have attempted to explain it.

    Meanwhile Osborne continues to spread himself far too thinly and is the main person highlighted as behind two Govt announcements this AM.
    1. Appointig the Infrastructure Team (anyone remember Osborne's HR failure on Coulson?)
    2. the EC negotiations

    Plain madness for Osborne to spread so wide and mistakes like the Tax Credit analysis and communication are inevitable.

    He is the defacto deputy PM. First Secretary of State. This is what the job entails. He makes a likely prospect for being the next PM, but I think there is a danger of anti Osborne maniacs getting too obsessive. Deputy PM is not a bad job and with a following wind it makes for a smooth change over of leadership. But it might be quite all that Osborne has in mind, as I say its not a bad job, he is doing a lot in govt already. The onus surely is on someone else to start achieving something and looking viable as a future leader.
    Deputy PM, Chief Party Strategist, Head of EC negotiations, CofExchequer, Head of Infrastructure etc etc is way too many jobs. It also suffers from the problem of divergent skills and the person then switches to their comfort zone (political strategy) and neglects the other things. Hence we have a poorly planned and communicated Tax Credit mess. Also an EC negotiation where the other side do not yet know what we are asking for.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,539
    edited October 2015
    Currant Bun are dropping their paywall. It seems Brooks has come in and made the decision.

    Wonder if the Time will carry on with theirs?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,841

    OGH "The Tory position has not been helped by analysts suggesting that the impact on many families will not be alleviated that much by his new National Living Wage."

    Having watched This Week, Julia Hartley-Brewer made a much better case of the Tax Credits change than all the Govt spokes people that have attempted to explain it.

    Meanwhile Osborne continues to spread himself far too thinly and is the main person highlighted as behind two Govt announcements this AM.
    1. Appointig the Infrastructure Team (anyone remember Osborne's HR failure on Coulson?)
    2. the EC negotiations

    Plain madness for Osborne to spread so wide and mistakes like the Tax Credit analysis and communication are inevitable.

    He is the defacto deputy PM. First Secretary of State. This is what the job entails. He makes a likely prospect for being the next PM, but I think there is a danger of anti Osborne maniacs getting too obsessive. Deputy PM is not a bad job and with a following wind it makes for a smooth change over of leadership. But it might be quite all that Osborne has in mind, as I say its not a bad job, he is doing a lot in govt already. The onus surely is on someone else to start achieving something and looking viable as a future leader.
    Deputy PM, Chief Party Strategist, Head of EC negotiations, CofExchequer, Head of Infrastructure etc etc is way too many jobs. It also suffers from the problem of divergent skills and the person then switches to their comfort zone (political strategy) and neglects the other things. Hence we have a poorly planned and communicated Tax Credit mess. Also an EC negotiation where the other side do not yet know what we are asking for.
    We should just call him Pooh Bah and have done with it. But I don't think he would set any limits to his own pride.
  • If the courts find Alastair Carmichael has been a very naughty boy the Lib Dems could go into the next election with only 3 notional holds and UKIP none.

    The SNP could go in notionally defending every seat in Scotland, if they do take a by-election in O&S.

    (Yes, I know 'defences' are a bit ambiguous when there's a by-election gain since the last election but there'd be no doubt that people would see the SNP as defending it, with the Lib Dems looking to 'regain').
    On election night I reported Rochester and Strood as Con HOLD.

    Felt it didn't convey the full majesty of that result.
    "UKIPTPD evicted" would be more accurate?
    I wanted to go for TPD has his arse kicked into the next millennium.

    Pretty much everything I wanted to happen on election night happened bar the Tories being the second party in Scotland.

    Tory Maj, Reckless loses, Cable loses, Balls loses, Farage loses were the highlights (apart from a plethora of winning bets)

    I still think it is all a dream. Next Labour will elect Jeremy Corbyn as leader and I'll wake up.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    A few PBers have noted the apparent absence of Mark Senior.

    However he has been on site in recent months including in the past day.
  • JackW said:

    Jonathan said:

    If the polls go up, Tories celebrate. If the polls go down, Tories celebrate.

    Conclusion: They're a happy bunch, probably still celebrating May, but there's little evidence of cognition.

    Who needs polls when we have JackW telling us Corbyn will never be Prime Minister
    Incorrect.

    I advised PB that :

    Jeremy Corbyn Will Never be First Lord Of The Treasury

    AKA JCWNBFLOTT

    Can one be PM without being First Lord of the Treasury?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,841
    Scott_P said:

    @JamieRoss7: We've been given a script for Corbyn's speech. We're a out eight sentences in and he's already gone wildly off-script to upset journalists.

    @HTScotPol: .@jeremycorbyn script for #scotlab15: "I have hugely enjoyed working with Kezia Dugdale." That 'hugely' missing from delivered speech

    Could have been worse. He could have missed out 'enjoyed' and said he was 'hugely working' Kezia Dugdale, although I could do without that mental image :anguished:
  • TBH, the overweening LD message on here was they couldn't be beaten - we endured it for years.

    And a few brave voices Said No. That is the message for me from GE2015.

    taffys said:

    ''It's going to take time but this poll shows his personality and message is slowly getting through. This site is NOT a weathervane.''

    On what happened in May 2015, I'm afraid the evidence is completely against you.

    The only problem for the PB tories is they were not correct enough. The brilliant poll filleting analyses of posters like chestnut would have saved many a poster a few quid. But hey, suit yourself.

    Speaking of which, has anyone heard from Mark Senior since the election?
    Has he stopped mourning and wearing black?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,841
    edited October 2015

    JackW said:

    Jonathan said:

    If the polls go up, Tories celebrate. If the polls go down, Tories celebrate.

    Conclusion: They're a happy bunch, probably still celebrating May, but there's little evidence of cognition.

    Who needs polls when we have JackW telling us Corbyn will never be Prime Minister
    Incorrect.

    I advised PB that :

    Jeremy Corbyn Will Never be First Lord Of The Treasury

    AKA JCWNBFLOTT

    Can one be PM without being First Lord of the Treasury?
    Last one to be one without the other was Lord Salisbury 1895-1902, whose official title was first Foreign Secretary and then Lord Privy Seal while Balfour was FLT in the House of Commons. A similar compromise was suggested for Campbell-Bannerman in 1905 (the 'Relugas Compact') but he told Asquith to get stuffed.

    However, Baldwin was de facto Prime Minister from 1933-35 while Lord President of the Council under Macdonald's official leadership, if that counts. Since then, the two have always been firmly merged.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049

    Mr. Song, bloody evil Tory supporting working class coal miners... wait a minute...

    We need to unite behind Jezza to re-open them to give hardworking 17-yr olds the right to a life down the mines.
  • ydoethur said:

    OGH "The Tory position has not been helped by analysts suggesting that the impact on many families will not be alleviated that much by his new National Living Wage."

    Having watched This Week, Julia Hartley-Brewer made a much better case of the Tax Credits change than all the Govt spokes people that have attempted to explain it.

    Meanwhile Osborne continues to spread himself far too thinly and is the main person highlighted as behind two Govt announcements this AM.
    1. Appointig the Infrastructure Team (anyone remember Osborne's HR failure on Coulson?)
    2. the EC negotiations

    Plain madness for Osborne to spread so wide and mistakes like the Tax Credit analysis and communication are inevitable.

    He is the defacto deputy PM. First Secretary of State. This is what the job entails. He makes a likely prospect for being the next PM, but I think there is a danger of anti Osborne maniacs getting too obsessive. Deputy PM is not a bad job and with a following wind it makes for a smooth change over of leadership. But it might be quite all that Osborne has in mind, as I say its not a bad job, he is doing a lot in govt already. The onus surely is on someone else to start achieving something and looking viable as a future leader.
    Deputy PM, Chief Party Strategist, Head of EC negotiations, CofExchequer, Head of Infrastructure etc etc is way too many jobs. It also suffers from the problem of divergent skills and the person then switches to their comfort zone (political strategy) and neglects the other things. Hence we have a poorly planned and communicated Tax Credit mess. Also an EC negotiation where the other side do not yet know what we are asking for.
    We should just call him Pooh Bah and have done with it. But I don't think he would set any limits to his own pride.
    Sowing the seeds of his own destruction.
  • ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JamieRoss7: We've been given a script for Corbyn's speech. We're a out eight sentences in and he's already gone wildly off-script to upset journalists.

    @HTScotPol: .@jeremycorbyn script for #scotlab15: "I have hugely enjoyed working with Kezia Dugdale." That 'hugely' missing from delivered speech

    Could have been worse. He could have missed out 'enjoyed' and said he was 'hugely working' Kezia Dugdale, although I could do without that mental image :anguished:
    Only if she stopped talking. She is a major motor-mouth.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,841

    ydoethur said:

    OGH "The Tory position has not been helped by analysts suggesting that the impact on many families will not be alleviated that much by his new National Living Wage."

    Having watched This Week, Julia Hartley-Brewer made a much better case of the Tax Credits change than all the Govt spokes people that have attempted to explain it.

    Meanwhile Osborne continues to spread himself far too thinly and is the main person highlighted as behind two Govt announcements this AM.
    1. Appointig the Infrastructure Team (anyone remember Osborne's HR failure on Coulson?)
    2. the EC negotiations

    Plain madness for Osborne to spread so wide and mistakes like the Tax Credit analysis and communication are inevitable.

    He is the defacto deputy PM. First Secretary of State. This is what the job entails. He makes a likely prospect for being the next PM, but I think there is a danger of anti Osborne maniacs getting too obsessive. Deputy PM is not a bad job and with a following wind it makes for a smooth change over of leadership. But it might be quite all that Osborne has in mind, as I say its not a bad job, he is doing a lot in govt already. The onus surely is on someone else to start achieving something and looking viable as a future leader.
    Deputy PM, Chief Party Strategist, Head of EC negotiations, CofExchequer, Head of Infrastructure etc etc is way too many jobs. It also suffers from the problem of divergent skills and the person then switches to their comfort zone (political strategy) and neglects the other things. Hence we have a poorly planned and communicated Tax Credit mess. Also an EC negotiation where the other side do not yet know what we are asking for.
    We should just call him Pooh Bah and have done with it. But I don't think he would set any limits to his own pride.
    Sowing the seeds of his own destruction.
    Well, indeed. Pooh Bah decided to stop taking more offices and therefore escaped being Lord High Substitute - and having his head cut off! Maybe Osborne will not draw back in time?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dVLS6FazQ4
  • ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    Jonathan said:

    If the polls go up, Tories celebrate. If the polls go down, Tories celebrate.

    Conclusion: They're a happy bunch, probably still celebrating May, but there's little evidence of cognition.

    Who needs polls when we have JackW telling us Corbyn will never be Prime Minister
    Incorrect.

    I advised PB that :

    Jeremy Corbyn Will Never be First Lord Of The Treasury

    AKA JCWNBFLOTT

    Can one be PM without being First Lord of the Treasury?
    Last one to be one without the other was Lord Salisbury 1895-1902, whose official title was first Foreign Secretary and then Lord Privy Seal while Balfour was FLT in the House of Commons. A similar compromise was suggested for Campbell-Bannerman in 1905 (the 'Relugas Compact') but he told Asquith to get stuffed.

    However, Baldwin was de facto Prime Minister from 1933-35 while Lord President of the Council under Macdonald's official leadership, if that counts. Since then, the two have always been firmly merged.
    Cheers. On the letterbox of no 10 it says First Lord of the Treasury.

    WhenIf I were to become Prime Minister, I fear I'd go all Idi Amin on the titles front.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2015

    I'm not sure Mike can draw that conclusion. Respondents were only given the option to approve of one of the options (or signify their top priority). There may well be many who think the UK spends too much on aid but would like tax credits cut too.

    Your Herculean spin to try and disguise the fact that cutting blue-collar workers' wages, is about as popular as the bubonic plague, is impressive.

    Though this comment doesn't quite top a few weeks ago, when you said anyone who answered "Don't Know" to the question on tax credits really meant that they supported it.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Jonathan said:

    If the polls go up, Tories celebrate. If the polls go down, Tories celebrate.

    Conclusion: They're a happy bunch, probably still celebrating May, but there's little evidence of cognition.

    Who needs polls when we have JackW telling us Corbyn will never be Prime Minister
    Incorrect.

    I advised PB that :

    Jeremy Corbyn Will Never be First Lord Of The Treasury

    AKA JCWNBFLOTT

    Can one be PM without being First Lord of the Treasury?
    Yes. Although by modern convention (from the early 19th century) they are seen as one and the same.

    It's also worthy of note that 10 Downing Street is the official residence of The First Lord of the Treasury and not the PM, whose official residence is Chequers.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @aljwhite: So, @xtophercook and I have uncovered some rather significant new revelations about Kids Company, and the Cabinet Office...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @aljwhite: Exc: Ministers signed off Kids Company grant despite "horrifying" report https://t.co/dTrpfnF9OY
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited October 2015
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Jonathan said:

    If the polls go up, Tories celebrate. If the polls go down, Tories celebrate.

    Conclusion: They're a happy bunch, probably still celebrating May, but there's little evidence of cognition.

    Who needs polls when we have JackW telling us Corbyn will never be Prime Minister
    Incorrect.

    I advised PB that :

    Jeremy Corbyn Will Never be First Lord Of The Treasury

    AKA JCWNBFLOTT

    Can one be PM without being First Lord of the Treasury?
    Yes. Although by modern convention (from the early 19th century) they are seen as one and the same.

    It's also worthy of note that 10 Downing Street is the official residence of The First Lord of the Treasury and not the PM, whose official residence is Chequers.

    On a related matter the Prime Minister is not the most senior member of the government in precedence. Cameron ranks second behind Michael Gove who as Lord Chancellor is top of the pecking order.

    Peter the Punter would agree as he's clearly of the view that any male minister that wears stockings should be top dog !!

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,841

    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    Jonathan said:

    If the polls go up, Tories celebrate. If the polls go down, Tories celebrate.

    Conclusion: They're a happy bunch, probably still celebrating May, but there's little evidence of cognition.

    Who needs polls when we have JackW telling us Corbyn will never be Prime Minister
    Incorrect.

    I advised PB that :

    Jeremy Corbyn Will Never be First Lord Of The Treasury

    AKA JCWNBFLOTT

    Can one be PM without being First Lord of the Treasury?
    Last one to be one without the other was Lord Salisbury 1895-1902, whose official title was first Foreign Secretary and then Lord Privy Seal while Balfour was FLT in the House of Commons. A similar compromise was suggested for Campbell-Bannerman in 1905 (the 'Relugas Compact') but he told Asquith to get stuffed.

    However, Baldwin was de facto Prime Minister from 1933-35 while Lord President of the Council under Macdonald's official leadership, if that counts. Since then, the two have always been firmly merged.
    Cheers. On the letterbox of no 10 it says First Lord of the Treasury.

    WhenIf I were to become Prime Minister, I fear I'd go all Idi Amin on the titles front.
    Ah, but Salisbury didn't live in Downing Street, Balfour (and earlier Iddesleigh) did. Salisbury had his own house in London and used that.

    The idea of 10 Downing Street was it would be used by those Prime Ministers who did not have palatial London residences (as that of Chequers was to allow PMs to entertain foreign visitors in a country house style, even if they didn't have a country house of their own). It was therefore frequently used by other politicians in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries - e.g. Peel used it, but not Wellington. So although it says 'First Lord of the Treasury' on the door, that could be a bit flexible.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,533

    Exclusive: Left-wing mob forces Scottish Tories to cancel conference on police advice. https://t.co/6xOMflXXXW

    They were hoping for 75 delegates as well
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    If every poll between now and 2020 showed Corbyn ahead and I would still expect the Conservatives to win. I say that as an ex-Labour party member & voter. My default position now is that if the polls show Corbyn winning a GE then the polls are wrong. It would take something monumental to change me from that viewpoint.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Danny565 said:

    I'm not sure Mike can draw that conclusion. Respondents were only given the option to approve of one of the options (or signify their top priority). There may well be many who think the UK spends too much on aid but would like tax credits cut too.

    Your Herculean spin to try and disguise the fact that cutting blue-collar workers' wages, is about as popular as the bubonic plague, is impressive.

    Though this comment doesn't quite top a few weeks ago, when you said anyone who answered "Don't Know" to the question on tax credits really meant that they supported it.
    Not to worry, because the man you supported virtually extinguished Labour as the party of real opposition, Osborne, has over 4 years to build a war chest for the next election. Ed, truly was shite. Corbyn, will go on to make Ed look like a winner, he really is that bad.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,533
    watford30 said:

    Exclusive: Left-wing mob forces Scottish Tories to cancel conference on police advice. https://t.co/6xOMflXXXW

    Those Nats don't like democracy do they?
    LOL, given the consensus on here is that SNP are right wing and Tartan Tories , what a leap of faith to think a left wing "mob" were SNP. Given it was that clown Roden reporting it was probably two pensioners fighting over a set of false teeth.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,533
    edited October 2015
    CD13 said:

    "Don't the idiots understand that mob rule really doesn't benefit their cause?"

    I doubt if they care. In Monty Python World, you've got to really really hate the Romans. Virtue signalling is more important than persuading others.

    What is worse is that idiots like you believe the "mob rule" guff written by a cretin.
    What really happened no doubt is that they were not going to get close to the expected 75 attendees and were not going to be able to pay for the wake and so needed a handy tool to write some bollocks for them
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    malcolmg said:

    Exclusive: Left-wing mob forces Scottish Tories to cancel conference on police advice. https://t.co/6xOMflXXXW

    They were hoping for 75 delegates as well
    MAlky! Off to an early start on the electric soup?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,533
    Scott_P said:

    @JournoStephen: .@IanMurrayMP attacks @RuthDavidsonMSP for her photo-ops: "Get on your bike or take a hike". #ScotLab15

    Right...

    https://twitter.com/ruthdavidsonmsp/status/660104664826961920

    Oh dear , muppets
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