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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s LAB closes the gap once again in the October ComRe
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s LAB closes the gap once again in the October ComRes/Mail phone poll
After the GE2015 polling disaster ComRes was the first firm to announce radical changes in its weightings to deal with the apparent problem of the Conservatives being understated. The result is that its polls have broadly shown bigger CON leads than those from other firms. So today’s numbers will give the red team even more comfort.
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Keeps Agent Corbyn in place.
Have to wait and see how things stand when tax credits aren't all over the press and when the weather improves (I seem to remember Labour doing better/Conservatives worse over winter).
That said, it appears to be improving for the Hamas-befriending unilateralist socialist.
Britain Elects @britainelects · 25m25 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 37%
LAB: 31%
UKIP: 15%
LDEM: 6%
GRN: 5%
(via BMG / 22 - 27 Oct)
Having watched This Week, Julia Hartley-Brewer made a much better case of the Tax Credits change than all the Govt spokes people that have attempted to explain it.
Meanwhile Osborne continues to spread himself far too thinly and is the main person highlighted as behind two Govt announcements this AM.
1. Appointig the Infrastructure Team (anyone remember Osborne's HR failure on Coulson?)
2. the EC negotiations
Plain madness for Osborne to spread so wide and mistakes like the Tax Credit analysis and communication are inevitable.
4 in 5 want the deficit gone. People want it dealt with. And that is the real reason tax credit cuts are being opposed. The opposition want Osborne to fail because they know that clearing the deficit is what Osborne was elected to do.
It makes the DUEMA look a bit hysterical.
Comrade Corbyn nor his Pink Floyd Offspring activists will ever gain power.
Again, this shows how far Labour has fallen.
The options are hugely non-neutral. Propose any cut and offer alternatives of Tax The Evil Rich, and Cut Stupid Aid, and very many lefties and righties will go for those alternatives.
A straight Oppose/Support for tax credits being cut would be fairer (possibly with a Don't Know option).
On topic, I'm still not sure we can rely on the opinion polls yet - they're bound to yo-yo a bit for a few months as the pollsters toy with methodologies and don't knows make up their minds about Corbyn. But after last week, surely it would have been a VERY big story if Labour had not been making at least some progress? That would really have been something to alarm Seumas Milne (except he would probably have decided the figures were wrong and left it at that).
Wasn't support for the poll tax - even at the height of its unpopularity - hovering around 20%?
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/29/time-to-do-away-with-manhood
It's like me asking whether people would like to sleep with Olivia Wilde, Jennifer Morrison, neither or both. The option for Jennifer Morrison would probably get low single digits. That doesn't mean 3% of men [or women] would want to sleep with her. It's misleading to read it that way.
We need a name for these stories which I presume you are suggesting are only there to raise a bogus controversy.
Con 321 (-10)
Lab 242 (+10)
LD 8 (-)
UKIP 1 (-)
Grn 1 (-)
SNP 56 (-)
Con 5 short of majority.
Personally I wouldn't be surprised if Labour edge ahead within 12 months. In terms of what that means for 2020, bugger all, unless you count Labour still having Corbyn.
That Portillo can say he doesn't know enough about it says that the problem is very complex.
I have still not seen any real world calculations about the tax credit changes, in the context of other changes and in both absolute and relative terms. Can anyone answer the question of the person losing £1500 a year is working how many hours and earning how much in total?
Perhaps John McDonnell will be Boniface VIII, speaking in a spectral voice down a tube in the mid of night.
FPT I am happy with certain kinds of DLC. Big, expansive updates that add content to a great game some way down the line, I am happy to pay for - for certain of those, even for big companies, I am willing to accept they may not have finalised the work on them if the game itself did not sell well, and if the intent is to enhance the game, not substitute for a half baked experience in the original game. I was quite happy to pay for some Mass Effect Dragon Age and Fallout DLC (not all, they've had the shadier kind too). It felt like the kind you want, but don't need. It's still motivated by money, but I'm at least getting something for it to enhance what I like, not because it's the only way to enjoy the game properly.
Though I wonder what Corbyn thinks of Adrian IV and his approach to Ireland
I'm reminded of the videogame Goldeneye, where silly modes (like Big Head mode or Slappers Only in multiplayer) would probably be micro-transaction Satanism now.
But 8% supporting a government policy?
A figure that low can't be spun as anything other than a disaster.
Conclusion: They're a happy bunch, probably still celebrating May, but there's little evidence of cognition.
I am becoming more convinced, in the absense of evidence to the contrary, that the opposition to tax credit changes is because they know that the changes will be effective in weaning large numbers of people off the teat of the client state.
She said it rang a bell but wasn't sure if it was there or not.
If I had 1,000 people rank four attractive celebrities, picking just one each for a night, then even an attractive, famous person might get just 8%. That doesn't mean only 8% want to sleep with that celebrity.
The figures there are worthless.
Anyway, I must be off.
May I remind you of your quote to me at PB do "EdM ten more years". You knew in your bones it was cobblers then too.
With padded electoral rolls....
The more recent trend of shipping games unfinished then charging extra *for what they should have been in the first place* is somewhat less than satisfactory.
On Corbyn, who knows where we will all be in five years. I would be surprised if he is planning to stick around that long.
'I'd rather see more babies die in Africa than see a drop from 6 to 5 out of 10 families with children receiving tax credits (but still benefitting from lower tax and higher pay)' supplementaries.
It's the flip side of how Fox News has made the Republicans unelectable in America.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11964655/Police-to-be-granted-powers-to-view-your-internet-history.html
Police are to get the power to view the web browsing history of everyone in the country.
Home Secretary Theresa May will announce the plans when she introduces the Government's new surveillance bill in the House of Commons on Wednesday.
The Telegraph understands the new powers for the police will form part of the new bill.
It would make it a legal requirement for communications companies to retain all the web browsing history of customers for 12 months in case the spy agencies or police need to access them.
Police would be able to access specific web addresses visited by customers.
Good Newshubris memo?We're not allowed a win.
The point has not really been made that, if you want tax credits, you effectively have to go cap in hand to the government for your own money. People don;t like this. They would rather cut out the form filling, negotiating with idiot civil servants etc and have the money.
No wonder the left is gambling all its political capital in trying to stop this.
Whilst you focus on his limited reach on the right, that is not the whole story. The way he has engaged large numbers of people is genuinely interesting.
I doubt he will lead Labour into 2020 and suspect that will be his own choice.
Will be fascinating.
So the change in boundaries and reduction in seats increases the Con majority by 20 from -10 to +10 (according to Electoral Calculus).
Let's call a spade a diversity of vibrant opinion that we should celebrate.
I doubt if they care. In Monty Python World, you've got to really really hate the Romans. Virtue signalling is more important than persuading others.
Anyone of my age [mid 40s] who was wary before simply won't do so again. This is a crucial factor that Corbynism makes absurd in electoral terms. His version of winning simply doesn't make the cut.
"ComRes Mail poll finds just 8% saying government should go ahead with Osborne's tax credits plan"
Which compares with this site where the figure must be nearer 100%
In any case, Labour *did* come third behind UKIP in Newark and Miliband stayed.
Only those desperate to make a story saw it as a win.