Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lynton Crosby could do it again next week and give the Tori

124

Comments

  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Yorkcity said:


    ...
    But legislation requires most of their business.
    For example

    Registering Sex Offenders
    Signing Bail
    Registering Foreign Nationals
    Producing Documents
    Found Property.

    ...

    Do police offices still register foreign nationals? I thought this was done by independent agencies now, there is one not far from where I live in the centre of Glasgow.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    JEO said:


    antifrank said:

    You don't have to agree with an article to find it useful. Don Brind has correctly drawn attention to the fact that race and culture have become very hot topics in the Canadian election. He places this as part of a theme in Lyndon Crosby-run campaigns and speculates on the potential relevance of that to the London Mayoral race.

    You may disagree with his thesis. But he puts forward a view and the exercise of working out if and why you disagree with it is helpful.

    He could have done the same thing without calling anyone on one side of the argument Islamophobic and racist, and everyone on the other side of the argument "the good guys".

    Islamophobia and racism are real things that motivate some horrible acts. Liberally throwing them about for partisan reasons just causes the terms to lose meaning, and mean the victims of genuine bigotry get ignored.
    The other thing he could have mentioned is that Canada has 'control of its own borders' and immigration controls. Yet it seems to have cultural and integration problems.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    To observe Scotland’s public sector is to witness the SNP’s control-freakery. Where councils once held sway, SNP ministers oversee hospitals, police departments, regional development agencies, fire services and even local tax levels. COSLA, the local authorities’ representative body, calls Scotland “the most centralised country in Europe”. In Inverness the fire-control room has been closed. The constabulary, with responsibility for an area the size of Belgium, is going too. The SNP has concentrated cuts on local, frontline services (Scottish councils are twice as indebted per head as English and Welsh ones, despite the country’s disproportionately generous funding). From the centre, meanwhile, it has doled out lavish universal goodies such as free university education, medical prescriptions and care for the elderly.

    The SNP government has extended its reach into non-fiscal realms. One proposal enables ministers to force landowners they do not like to sell up. Police officers can patrol sleepy Highland settlements with guns and use stop-and-search powers more than before. From next year, every Scottish child is due to have a state guardian. An Orwellian national identification register is in the works. Ministers pillory sceptical academics, civil servants, journalists and judges, give orders to councillors and, it is said, bully firms and voluntary bodies that demur. Rigid discipline prevails within the SNP: prominent dissenters are ousted, while bosses rarely rebuke the party’s online activists for abusing heretics and peddling conspiracy theories.

    Unsurprisingly, the result is poor government.
    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21674723-cawdors-shadow-soft-autocracy-nationalist-scotland
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Does she want a referendum? Yes, of course. She is a blood and guts Nationalist; she just thinks – say her allies – that there is smart way to go about these things.

    Increasingly, Nationalist thinking – I am told – rests on the question of the Tory leadership election. The moment of maximum opportunity may be when the Tories are choosing between Boris and Osborne, in 2019. Then independence can be presented as a way out of eternal Tory Westminster government. If the polls on independence move during that process, she will have her moment.

    But there are many moving parts, including Europe and the economy and the poor governing record of the SNP. She will need all that to work in her favour and she will need the more enthusiastic SNP members to stay calm. Good luck with that…
    http://www.capx.co/‎can-nicola-sturgeon-control-the-crazier-snp-members/
  • AndyJS said:

    antifrank said:

    You don't have to agree with an article to find it useful. Don Brind has correctly drawn attention to the fact that race and culture have become very hot topics in the Canadian election. He places this as part of a theme in Lyndon Crosby-run campaigns and speculates on the potential relevance of that to the London Mayoral race.

    You may disagree with his thesis. But he puts forward a view and the exercise of working out if and why you disagree with it is helpful.

    Race and culture have become hot topics in almost every western democracy thanks to the left's decision to activate the so-called "culture wars".
    Race and culture are completely separate issues.

    Race is wot people look like, Culture is wot they believe in.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Scott_P said:

    Dair said:

    Then save hundreds of millions getting rid of those pointless head offices and running a national police service.

    Another steal they can take from the SNP as they continue to learn from the North how to run competent, efficient government.

    Despite having fewer offences to investigate, however, Police Scotland manages to clear up 50,000 fewer crimes each year than the eight old constabularies did a decade ago. Basic policing mistakes that just were not made in the old days now fill the newspapers: in July a woman was left lying next to her dead boyfriend in a car in Bannockburn for three days after the crash was reported to police; she later died. A few weeks ago an elderly disabled woman died when police waited 20 hours after a call from a concerned family member before forcing entry to her home, where she lay collapsed next to her dead husband. A recent survey found that a third of Police Scotland’s staff planned to leave the force within three years: the merger, as Theresa May put it, is a case study in what not to do.
    http://new.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/centralising-illiberal-catastrophic-the-snps-one-party-state/

    Maths isn't one of Tomkins strong points.

    If there are fewer crimes to investigate, there are always going to be fewer crimes solved. That's what happens when you have record low levels of crime.

    I see he's also regurgitating the "police want to leave" lie.

    Wings cleared it up.

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/less-than-the-whole-truth/#more-76217

    The primary reason any Police Officer wants to leave Police Scotland is the Westminster enforced Pension reduction which the Scottish Government were willing to pay to avoid and had the money in place to fund it. Then Westminster overruled.

    Comical stuff. Especially with half of English police ready to walk out.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Dair said:

    Wings cleared it up.

    Zoooooooooooooooooooooommmmmmmmm!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Mr Thompson:

    Labour actually produced different manifestos for different races at the election

    If that's true they deserved to lose heavily.

    On their present trajectory, they'll probably elect Batmangehlidgh leader next.
    Do you know how to spell her name, or did you copy and paste it?
    I took a flier and got it wrong. Apparently it ends 'djh', which I ought to remember as they used to be my initials. Also, it's 'h' before 'e' when following 'g'.
    I thought it was Batman-Robber
    Reminds me of the old Scouse joke (applied to thieves).

    They call him Batman, 'cos he can't go anywhere without Robbin'...
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Scott_P said:



    ...

    Unsurprisingly, the result is poor government.

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21674723-cawdors-shadow-soft-autocracy-nationalist-scotland

    The sort of "poor government" that increases your vote share, that people are genuinely delighted with and that the Tory government at Westminster can't stop copying.

    Keep trying.

    Quote the drooling idiot Hague again. You're on top comic form today.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Scott_P said:

    Does she want a referendum? Yes, of course. She is a blood and guts Nationalist; she just thinks – say her allies – that there is smart way to go about these things.

    Increasingly, Nationalist thinking – I am told – rests on the question of the Tory leadership election. The moment of maximum opportunity may be when the Tories are choosing between Boris and Osborne, in 2019. Then independence can be presented as a way out of eternal Tory Westminster government. If the polls on independence move during that process, she will have her moment.

    But there are many moving parts, including Europe and the economy and the poor governing record of the SNP. She will need all that to work in her favour and she will need the more enthusiastic SNP members to stay calm. Good luck with that…
    http://www.capx.co/‎can-nicola-sturgeon-control-the-crazier-snp-members/

    Presumably if she is ever successful in her dream of holding a referendum because the people want one, she'll campaign for another one when the tide turns and the people want back in. Or is she only beholden to the will of the people when it matches hers?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Dair said:

    The sort of "poor government" that increases your vote share

    Ah, yes, the Sturgeon answer to any hard question

    "Look at the polls, people love me!"

    Zooooooooooooooooooooom
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    saddened said:

    Or is she only beholden to the will of the people when it matches hers?

    She said she would respect the outcome of the last once in a lifetime referendum...
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Poor Scott_P all that flapping about quoting insipid opinion pieces lacking fact or justification from his zoomer friends in the Loyalist media, while Wings can clear the whole thing up in a paragraph : -

    In other words, after eight years of “disaster” and “catastrophic” rule the party has increased its support by a colossal 21 points, and has extended its average lead over Labour by even more, from just 1.3 points in 2007 to a crushing 32 points today.

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-master-of-disaster/#more-76741
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Torcuil: Philippa Whitford talking about her expertise on NHS across the border at #SNP15, reminds me of something
    http://t.co/fGsnQj26gu
  • Scott_P said:

    Dair said:

    Then save hundreds of millions getting rid of those pointless head offices and running a national police service.

    Another steal they can take from the SNP as they continue to learn from the North how to run competent, efficient government.

    Despite having fewer offences to investigate, however, Police Scotland manages to clear up 50,000 fewer crimes each year than the eight old constabularies did a decade ago. Basic policing mistakes that just were not made in the old days now fill the newspapers: in July a woman was left lying next to her dead boyfriend in a car in Bannockburn for three days after the crash was reported to police; she later died. A few weeks ago an elderly disabled woman died when police waited 20 hours after a call from a concerned family member before forcing entry to her home, where she lay collapsed next to her dead husband. A recent survey found that a third of Police Scotland’s staff planned to leave the force within three years: the merger, as Theresa May put it, is a case study in what not to do.
    http://new.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/centralising-illiberal-catastrophic-the-snps-one-party-state/

    If only Scotland had voted (stop laughing at the back there) SCon.

    https://twitter.com/UpIander/status/654619392286814208
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    AndyJS said:

    antifrank said:

    You don't have to agree with an article to find it useful. Don Brind has correctly drawn attention to the fact that race and culture have become very hot topics in the Canadian election. He places this as part of a theme in Lyndon Crosby-run campaigns and speculates on the potential relevance of that to the London Mayoral race.

    You may disagree with his thesis. But he puts forward a view and the exercise of working out if and why you disagree with it is helpful.

    Race and culture have become hot topics in almost every western democracy thanks to the left's decision to activate the so-called "culture wars".
    Race and culture are completely separate issues.

    Race is wot people look like, Culture is wot they believe in.
    Exactly right.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2015
    The Canadian election simply tests the limits of social conservatism in a bad economy.

    2/3 of canadians hate their Tory party, they were just evenly split between the NDP and the Liberals, Crosby did a mistake in that people sure don't like a left wing social agenda but they would vote for a party that has left wing economic policies just without the social stuff, in Canada there is such a party that could realistically win called the Liberals, so he united the opposition behind the anti-Tory party that is against left wing social policies instead of keeping it divided on the economy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,062
    SNP descends into farce as while Sturgeon states even a big SNP majority next May might not be enough for a second indyref in tonight's Evening Standard Angus Robertson includes going to war in Syria amongst potential triggers for another independence vote
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,744
    @Nick Palmer - thanks. I'm going to take a bite of some of that. I think the Canadian Tories have a 35% at worst and 55% chance at best of taking most seats, so 6.6 looks like value to me.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Seems today was the day that the Tories ermined failed businesswoman Michelle Mone.

    Bizarrely the press seem to still describe her as a "bra tycoon" despite that failing business having been sold in a fire sale by her to a Malaysian firm. Perhaps "snake oil salesperson" isn't as catchy**.

    Her main business activities now involve flogging "diet" pills to the most gullible in society. Who knows she might actually make a profit at it. Something she seldom actually achieved at Ultimo which spent most of its life under her control swallowing up White Knight cash while registering hefty losses.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    HYUFD said:

    SNP descends into farce as while Sturgeon states even a big SNP majority next May might not be enough for a second indyref in tonight's Evening Standard Angus Robertson includes going to war in Syria amongst potential triggers for another independence vote

    Different outcomes based on different scenarios is now a "farce". Your addled mind is descending rapidly to being capable only of risible effluent.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2015

    @Nick Palmer - thanks. I'm going to take a bite of some of that. I think the Canadian Tories have a 35% at worst and 55% chance at best of taking most seats, so 6.6 looks like value to me.

    Canada is in recession, Harper the most unpopular canadian PM since 1993, record numbers saying Canada is going on the wrong direction, record numbers of unpopularity of the Harper government, the signs are all there, the voters simply couldn't make their mind up as to which opposition party they should vote for to boot the canadian Tories out, Crosby made their choice for them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,062
    Dair said:

    HYUFD said:

    SNP descends into farce as while Sturgeon states even a big SNP majority next May might not be enough for a second indyref in tonight's Evening Standard Angus Robertson includes going to war in Syria amongst potential triggers for another independence vote

    Different outcomes based on different scenarios is now a "farce". Your addled mind is descending rapidly to being capable only of risible effluent.
    Next haggis not being on the Commons menu will be a Robertson trigger at this rate there is now a clear split between him and Sturgeon
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,744
    And yet only 48 hours ago three predictions put the Tories ahead on seats:

    http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-seat-projections/

    The Liberals are way too short at 1.12-1.18
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,980
    Mr. HYUFD, is that Robertson, or Salmond and Robertson, or Grima Salmondtongue whispering in Robertson's ear?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited October 2015
    Speaking of Mone, it seems one of her biggest cheerleaders, the Daily Mail, is finally sick of her and decided to come clean on her shady and failing business practices. (Whil still taking the opportunity to post plenty of "sexy" pictures).

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3274062/Millionaire-Bra-Tsar-Michelle-Mone-takes-seat-Lords-just-24-hours-former-business-announces-400-000-losses.html#comments

    Some of the figures associated with Ultimo Brands are quite worrying, especially the use of Directors Loans while the business was clearly failing.

    Also strange where her love of Scotland has gone now she has chosen to become Baroness Mone of Mayfair. It's comical.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    HYUFD said:

    Dair said:

    HYUFD said:

    SNP descends into farce as while Sturgeon states even a big SNP majority next May might not be enough for a second indyref in tonight's Evening Standard Angus Robertson includes going to war in Syria amongst potential triggers for another independence vote

    Different outcomes based on different scenarios is now a "farce". Your addled mind is descending rapidly to being capable only of risible effluent.
    Next haggis not being on the Commons menu will be a Robertson trigger at this rate there is now a clear split between him and Sturgeon
    I said the SNP would do this about two months ago. It should be a surprise to no-one. They are ensuring that they hold all the cards.

    It is not farcical as you claim, merely good astute politics.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,921

    Incidentally I see that another Labour smear has been comprehensively discredited:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34540626

    As with much concerning Mr Watson, it seems the wish is father to the thought...
    I'm interested to read Tom Watson's full letter to the CPS, of which there's a transcript here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34509582

    Apparently the case was originally dismissed without interviewing Leon Brittan, which the letter states is irregular, and seems on the face of it to be so. That's presumably why after Tom Watson's intervention the case was reopened.

    I think Tom Watson is a corpulent little toad with a punchable face as much as the next man, but as far as this case goes he did what I hope we would all do in his shoes - pursue justice for the alleged victim.
    No. Watson was pursuing a political witch hunt. A crusade to get Watson on the news. He was using the victims of abuse as a stepping stone in his desire for a higher public profile.

    And don't trust everything Watson puts in a letter. I believe Brittan had been interviewed by this point - it is just that Watson didn't know about it.
    I don't trust everything he says either, but I also don't think he's stupid enough to put something so easy to refute in his letter without checking his facts. Had Brittan already been interviewed at this point the Met could have simply replied to that effect and taken no further action.

    It would also appear (and I do stress appear) that the fact that this lady was present and that she and Leon Brittan did have sex is not in dispute, or at least not beyond the realms of probability, otherwise her interviewers would not have pursued the line of the encounter being consensual.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    I admire the lack of sentimentality in Scandinavian culture: for example today a Danish zoo dissected a lion in front of young schoolchildren.

    http://www.theguardian.com/travel/2015/oct/15/danish-odense-zoo-dissection-lion
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Dair said:

    Yorkcity said:


    ...
    But legislation requires most of their business.
    For example

    Registering Sex Offenders
    Signing Bail
    Registering Foreign Nationals
    Producing Documents
    Found Property.

    ...

    Do police offices still register foreign nationals? I thought this was done by independent agencies now, there is one not far from where I live in the centre of Glasgow.
    Dair , Yes they still have to, seems odd to me.

    York has 2 universities and many language schools .

    Foreign nationals, mainly students have to register with the police.
    90% at the moment are chinese nationals.

    Why the government has not changed the law to help the police baffles me.

    As the EU or Commenwealth students do not have to register but other countries do.
    Who makes these rules up,lives in some 50s time warp.
    You would think special branch would have better things to look at , than chinese sudents, living on campus in york.
    Surely the University or other agencies could register students.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited October 2015

    Incidentally I see that another Labour smear has been comprehensively discredited:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34540626

    As with much concerning Mr Watson, it seems the wish is father to the thought...
    I'm interested to read Tom Watson's full letter to the CPS, of which there's a transcript here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34509582

    Apparently the case was originally dismissed without interviewing Leon Brittan, which the letter states is irregular, and seems on the face of it to be so. That's presumably why after Tom Watson's intervention the case was reopened.

    I think Tom Watson is a corpulent little toad with a punchable face as much as the next man, but as far as this case goes he did what I hope we would all do in his shoes - pursue justice for the alleged victim.
    No. Watson was pursuing a political witch hunt. A crusade to get Watson on the news. He was using the victims of abuse as a stepping stone in his desire for a higher public profile.

    And don't trust everything Watson puts in a letter. I believe Brittan had been interviewed by this point - it is just that Watson didn't know about it.
    I don't trust everything he says either, but I also don't think he's stupid enough to put something so easy to refute in his letter without checking his facts. Had Brittan already been interviewed at this point the Met could have simply replied to that effect and taken no further action.

    It would also appear (and I do stress appear) that the fact that this lady was present and that she and Leon Brittan did have sex is not in dispute, or at least not beyond the realms of probability, otherwise her interviewers would not have pursued the line of the encounter being consensual.
    It's time to give up your pointless and unpleasant smear campaign.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/15/stephen-harper-master-manipulator

    I have read this, he makes Mandelson look like a saint in comparison.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited October 2015
    Oh man, it seems that The Mone Commission could be the greatest comedy show of the decade.

    On top of advising potential Entrepreneurs to get OCD, it's all about the X Factor : -

    Her other great tip was that banks should hold auditions, like The X Factor, to find employable talent.

    She said: “HSBC – wouldn’t it be incredible if they were to have like an X Factor for people who wanted to come and work there?

    “Simon Cowell started it for singing. Maybe I can start if for business.”

    If OCD and The X Factor are her big entrepreneurial ideas, she is even less worthy of the £300-a-day expenses than the rest of the ermine-clad cadgers pocket in the chamber.


    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/lifestyle/fashion-beauty/annie-brown-michelle-mones-appointment-6630672

    This is who David Cameron thinks can lead the way in promoting Entrepreneurship in the United Kingdom.
  • AndyJS said:

    antifrank said:

    You don't have to agree with an article to find it useful. Don Brind has correctly drawn attention to the fact that race and culture have become very hot topics in the Canadian election. He places this as part of a theme in Lyndon Crosby-run campaigns and speculates on the potential relevance of that to the London Mayoral race.

    You may disagree with his thesis. But he puts forward a view and the exercise of working out if and why you disagree with it is helpful.

    Race and culture have become hot topics in almost every western democracy thanks to the left's decision to activate the so-called "culture wars".

    Race and culture have been hot topics in the west since the rise of nationalism in the first half of the nineteenth century.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,921
    watford30 said:

    Incidentally I see that another Labour smear has been comprehensively discredited:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34540626

    As with much concerning Mr Watson, it seems the wish is father to the thought...
    I'm interested to read Tom Watson's full letter to the CPS, of which there's a transcript here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34509582

    Apparently the case was originally dismissed without interviewing Leon Brittan, which the letter states is irregular, and seems on the face of it to be so. That's presumably why after Tom Watson's intervention the case was reopened.

    I think Tom Watson is a corpulent little toad with a punchable face as much as the next man, but as far as this case goes he did what I hope we would all do in his shoes - pursue justice for the alleged victim.
    No. Watson was pursuing a political witch hunt. A crusade to get Watson on the news. He was using the victims of abuse as a stepping stone in his desire for a higher public profile.

    And don't trust everything Watson puts in a letter. I believe Brittan had been interviewed by this point - it is just that Watson didn't know about it.
    I don't trust everything he says either, but I also don't think he's stupid enough to put something so easy to refute in his letter without checking his facts. Had Brittan already been interviewed at this point the Met could have simply replied to that effect and taken no further action.

    It would also appear (and I do stress appear) that the fact that this lady was present and that she and Leon Brittan did have sex is not in dispute, or at least not beyond the realms of probability, otherwise her interviewers would not have pursued the line of the encounter being consensual.
    It's time to give up your pointless and unpleasant smear campaign.
    Thanks for your opinion - I would love to say I respected you enough for it to influence me in any way.

    I will continue to post reasonably and within the rules about what I want to.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited October 2015
    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/camilla-batmanghelidjh-and-alan-yentob-in-defiance-at-select-committee-hearing/
    As you might expect, Batmanghelidjh shirked all responsibility for the collapse of the charity she founded – outrageously blaming civil servants who blew the whistle on her. Yentob, the charity’s chairman, angrily denied any conflict with his role as the BBC’s Creative Director. It didn’t quite get into ‘you can’t handle the truth!’ territory — instead it was ‘please, think of the children’ which is arguably worse...

    ...Each time she interrupted Yentob, Jenkin told her to be quiet. It’s as if she wants to be the star of the show, but her moment has passed. Instead, the committee appeared more interested in Yentob, whose job at the BBC now hangs in the balance. The appearance has raised more questions about the whole Kids Company saga than it answered.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,536

    Incidentally I see that another Labour smear has been comprehensively discredited:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34540626

    As with much concerning Mr Watson, it seems the wish is father to the thought...
    I'm interested to read Tom Watson's full letter to the CPS, of which there's a transcript here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34509582

    Apparently the case was originally dismissed without interviewing Leon Brittan, which the letter states is irregular, and seems on the face of it to be so. That's presumably why after Tom Watson's intervention the case was reopened.

    I think Tom Watson is a corpulent little toad with a punchable face as much as the next man, but as far as this case goes he did what I hope we would all do in his shoes - pursue justice for the alleged victim.
    No. Watson was pursuing a political witch hunt. A crusade to get Watson on the news. He was using the victims of abuse as a stepping stone in his desire for a higher public profile.

    And don't trust everything Watson puts in a letter. I believe Brittan had been interviewed by this point - it is just that Watson didn't know about it.
    I don't trust everything he says either, but I also don't think he's stupid enough to put something so easy to refute in his letter without checking his facts. Had Brittan already been interviewed at this point the Met could have simply replied to that effect and taken no further action.

    It would also appear (and I do stress appear) that the fact that this lady was present and that she and Leon Brittan did have sex is not in dispute, or at least not beyond the realms of probability, otherwise her interviewers would not have pursued the line of the encounter being consensual.
    " ... I also don't think he's (Watson is) stupid enough to put something so easy to refute in his letter without checking his facts"

    That's where you're going wrong.

    Well, that and the fact you fundamentally do not understand the concept of innocent until proven guilty.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited October 2015

    Incidentally I see that another Labour smear has been comprehensively discredited:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34540626

    As with much concerning Mr Watson, it seems the wish is father to the thought...
    I'm interested to read Tom Watson's full letter to the CPS, of which there's a transcript here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34509582

    Apparently the case was originally dismissed without interviewing Leon Brittan, which the letter states is irregular, and seems on the face of it to be so. That's presumably why after Tom Watson's intervention the case was reopened.

    I think Tom Watson is a corpulent little toad with a punchable face as much as the next man, but as far as this case goes he did what I hope we would all do in his shoes - pursue justice for the alleged victim.
    No. Watson was pursuing a political witch hunt. A crusade to get Watson on the news. He was using the victims of abuse as a stepping stone in his desire for a higher public profile.

    And don't trust everything Watson puts in a letter. I believe Brittan had been interviewed by this point - it is just that Watson didn't know about it.
    It would also appear (and I do stress appear) that the fact that this lady was present and that she and Leon Brittan did have sex is not in dispute, or at least not beyond the realms of probability, otherwise her interviewers would not have pursued the line of the encounter being consensual.
    "beyond the realms of probabilty" ? - From what I have read of the case, Lord Brittan claims not to have ever met the girl known as ‘Jane’ – was not at the party (according to witnesses present) where she claimed they met, and has never owned a basement flat where the alleged offence took place.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,062

    Mr. HYUFD, is that Robertson, or Salmond and Robertson, or Grima Salmondtongue whispering in Robertson's ear?

    All
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,062
    Dair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dair said:

    HYUFD said:

    SNP descends into farce as while Sturgeon states even a big SNP majority next May might not be enough for a second indyref in tonight's Evening Standard Angus Robertson includes going to war in Syria amongst potential triggers for another independence vote

    Different outcomes based on different scenarios is now a "farce". Your addled mind is descending rapidly to being capable only of risible effluent.
    Next haggis not being on the Commons menu will be a Robertson trigger at this rate there is now a clear split between him and Sturgeon
    I said the SNP would do this about two months ago. It should be a surprise to no-one. They are ensuring that they hold all the cards.

    It is not farcical as you claim, merely good astute politics.
    No it just makes them look chaotic
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Incidentally I see that another Labour smear has been comprehensively discredited:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34540626

    As with much concerning Mr Watson, it seems the wish is father to the thought...
    I'm interested to read Tom Watson's full letter to the CPS, of which there's a transcript here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34509582

    Apparently the case was originally dismissed without interviewing Leon Brittan, which the letter states is irregular, and seems on the face of it to be so. That's presumably why after Tom Watson's intervention the case was reopened.

    I think Tom Watson is a corpulent little toad with a punchable face as much as the next man, but as far as this case goes he did what I hope we would all do in his shoes - pursue justice for the alleged victim.
    No. Watson was pursuing a political witch hunt. A crusade to get Watson on the news. He was using the victims of abuse as a stepping stone in his desire for a higher public profile.

    And don't trust everything Watson puts in a letter. I believe Brittan had been interviewed by this point - it is just that Watson didn't know about it.
    I don't trust everything he says either, but I also don't think he's stupid enough to put something so easy to refute in his letter without checking his facts. Had Brittan already been interviewed at this point the Met could have simply replied to that effect and taken no further action.

    It would also appear (and I do stress appear) that the fact that this lady was present and that she and Leon Brittan did have sex is not in dispute, or at least not beyond the realms of probability, otherwise her interviewers would not have pursued the line of the encounter being consensual.
    I haven't dug into the detail because it's not interesting.

    But I thought she claimed it was in his basement flat when he lived on the third floor & that there was no evidence she'd ever met him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,062

    And yet only 48 hours ago three predictions put the Tories ahead on seats:

    http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-seat-projections/

    The Liberals are way too short at 1.12-1.18

    And yet only 48 hours ago three predictions put the Tories ahead on seats:

    http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-seat-projections/

    The Liberals are way too short at 1.12-1.18

    The Liberals have opened a clear lead in the last week as the NDP collapse with the Tories stuck on around 29 to 30% and the Liberals now lead on seats
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Latest Dutch polls put Geert Wilders' party miles ahead of any other party, with the election due in about 18 months' time:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Dutch_general_election#Opinion_polls
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,921



    " ... I also don't think he's (Watson is) stupid enough to put something so easy to refute in his letter without checking his facts"

    That's where you're going wrong.

    Well, that and the fact you fundamentally do not understand the concept of innocent until proven guilty.

    I'm very happy to be proven wrong - it happens often. If we can see a reasonable timeline showing that Brittan was interviewed before this letter was sent, I'm more than happy to believe it. If not, the balance of probability would seem to suggest he wasn't, hence the Met responding by reopening the case and interviewing him, rather than replying to Watson with a correction.

    I have heard a recording of another alleged victim being told by police that his alleged attacker was too powerful to 'just go up to' with the allegations. This is the world we live in. It would be nice to think we were all utterly equal before the law, and that a high level alleged abuser would receive the same treatment as the local dirty mac pervert, but perhaps understandably this has not been the case. That's why whatever his motivation, I believe Watson has potentially raised things that would otherwise not have been dealt with, and performed a service.

    I absolutely understand the concept of innocent until proven guilty. However, what you seem to suggest is that there is no such thing as a miscarriage of justice, no such thing as a case being dropped through lack of evidence when a crime has been committed, no such thing as an aquittal, then years later further evidence coming to light that proves the crime was committed. This seems absurd to me.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,744
    HYUFD said:

    And yet only 48 hours ago three predictions put the Tories ahead on seats:

    http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-seat-projections/

    The Liberals are way too short at 1.12-1.18

    And yet only 48 hours ago three predictions put the Tories ahead on seats:

    http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-seat-projections/

    The Liberals are way too short at 1.12-1.18

    The Liberals have opened a clear lead in the last week as the NDP collapse with the Tories stuck on around 29 to 30% and the Liberals now lead on seats
    So they have, but they are still priced way too short for just 9 days of clear leads.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,921
    Charles said:

    Incidentally I see that another Labour smear has been comprehensively discredited:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34540626

    As with much concerning Mr Watson, it seems the wish is father to the thought...
    I'm interested to read Tom Watson's full letter to the CPS, of which there's a transcript here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34509582

    Apparently the case was originally dismissed without interviewing Leon Brittan, which the letter states is irregular, and seems on the face of it to be so. That's presumably why after Tom Watson's intervention the case was reopened.

    I think Tom Watson is a corpulent little toad with a punchable face as much as the next man, but as far as this case goes he did what I hope we would all do in his shoes - pursue justice for the alleged victim.
    No. Watson was pursuing a political witch hunt. A crusade to get Watson on the news. He was using the victims of abuse as a stepping stone in his desire for a higher public profile.

    And don't trust everything Watson puts in a letter. I believe Brittan had been interviewed by this point - it is just that Watson didn't know about it.
    I don't trust everything he says either, but I also don't think he's stupid enough to put something so easy to refute in his letter without checking his facts. Had Brittan already been interviewed at this point the Met could have simply replied to that effect and taken no further action.

    It would also appear (and I do stress appear) that the fact that this lady was present and that she and Leon Brittan did have sex is not in dispute, or at least not beyond the realms of probability, otherwise her interviewers would not have pursued the line of the encounter being consensual.
    I haven't dug into the detail because it's not interesting.

    But I thought she claimed it was in his basement flat when he lived on the third floor & that there was no evidence she'd ever met him.
    I haven't heard any of her testimony.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Whatever Nicola says, goes. She is the Truth, she is the Way. What may have been off-message a few moments before was now on-message. The only person to have missed this change of script was Tommy Sheppard, the largest comedy impresario outside London before his election to Westminster in May. Sod the Tories, he shrugged. “Every time they say no to something they are increasing our ambition to have everything.” Somewhere backstage, a mirror cracked.
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/15/queen-nicola-sturgeon-snp-faithful-walks-water
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,744
    AndyJS said:

    Latest Dutch polls put Geert Wilders' party miles ahead of any other party, with the election due in about 18 months' time:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Dutch_general_election#Opinion_polls

    That's like UKIP+ having a stonking lead over both the Tories and Labour in the opinion polls for the General Election in late 2013 here.

    That could have led to a leadership challenge to Cameron here. Fortunately for him, we don't have PR.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,744
    From the PVV in the Netherlands: an easy win for Cameron's renegotiation?

    "Ask the EU to remove the "Dutch" star in the European flag."
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,572
    Wildly O/T: I'm planning to take up Osborne's pension freedom with a small works pension, worth £40000 - the idea is to take 25% as cash, transfer the rest into an annuity, and carry on paying into the fund as I'm continuing to work. Is there a Government website to work out how to do this for myself (I positively enjoy filling in forms and understanding complex rules), or should I take up an IFA's offer to do it for £140 now plus 0.6% of the annuity?
  • I read this article earlier today and thought it best to defer comment.

    We then have an article smearing Mr Crosby. Written by an ex BBC journalist supposed to be impartial. But if your hero is Jack Jones a traitor paid by the KGB, what else should we expect?

    Mr Brind starts off with "Or will the “good guys” win this time?"

    So Mr Brind the bad guys are the Conservatives.... What a desperately sad person you are.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    From the PVV in the Netherlands: an easy win for Cameron's renegotiation?

    "Ask the EU to remove the "Dutch" star in the European flag."

    Given there are 28 nations in the EU and 12 stars in the flag, the EU could argue that it already has.
  • Just watched George Osborne interviewing Charles Moore at the Policy Exchange re the second of his books on Margaret Thatcher. Absolutely brilliant. You must watch.

    PS. What an absolute pratt Caroline Lucas made of herself last night in the HoC on Fiscal Charter vote.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Crosby will relentlessly use the weapon that Sadiq Khan has handed him on a golden plate - his support for ethnic quotas. That has nothing to do with Sadiq being a Moslem and everything to do with him advocating wrong-headed, unpopular policies. Don does himself and Labour no credit by pretending otherwise.

    Well said
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    Charles said:

    Incidentally I see that another Labour smear has been comprehensively discredited:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34540626

    As with much concerning Mr Watson, it seems the wish is father to the thought...
    I'm interested to read Tom Watson's full letter to the CPS, of which there's a transcript here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34509582

    Apparently the case was originally dismissed without interviewing Leon Brittan, which the letter states is irregular, and seems on the face of it to be so. That's presumably why after Tom Watson's intervention the case was reopened.

    I think Tom Watson is a corpulent little toad with a punchable face as much as the next man, but as far as this case goes he did what I hope we would all do in his shoes - pursue justice for the alleged victim.
    No. Watson was pursuing a political witch hunt. A crusade to get Watson on the news. He was using the victims of abuse as a stepping stone in his desire for a higher public profile.

    And don't trust everything Watson puts in a letter. I believe Brittan had been interviewed by this point - it is just that Watson didn't know about it.
    I don't trust everything he says either, but I also don't think he's stupid enough to put something so easy to refute in his letter without checking his facts. Had Brittan already been interviewed at this point the Met could have simply replied to that effect and taken no further action.

    It would also appear (and I do stress appear) that the fact that this lady was present and that she and Leon Brittan did have sex is not in dispute, or at least not beyond the realms of probability, otherwise her interviewers would not have pursued the line of the encounter being consensual.
    I haven't dug into the detail because it's not interesting.

    But I thought she claimed it was in his basement flat when he lived on the third floor & that there was no evidence she'd ever met him.
    I haven't heard any of her testimony.
    But you were happy to assert that a particular event was 'not beyond the realms of probability'. This is Watson's problem; having a suspicion and reporting it to the authorities is all very well but publishing it changes the world forever for the person being accused.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,062

    HYUFD said:

    And yet only 48 hours ago three predictions put the Tories ahead on seats:

    http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-seat-projections/

    The Liberals are way too short at 1.12-1.18

    And yet only 48 hours ago three predictions put the Tories ahead on seats:

    http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-seat-projections/

    The Liberals are way too short at 1.12-1.18

    The Liberals have opened a clear lead in the last week as the NDP collapse with the Tories stuck on around 29 to 30% and the Liberals now lead on seats
    So they have, but they are still priced way too short for just 9 days of clear leads.
    Maybe but the momentum is with Trudeau
  • I read this article earlier today and thought it best to defer comment.

    We then have an article smearing Mr Crosby. Written by an ex BBC journalist supposed to be impartial. But if your hero is Jack Jones a traitor paid by the KGB, what else should we expect?

    Mr Brind starts off with "Or will the “good guys” win this time?"

    So Mr Brind the bad guys are the Conservatives.... What a desperately sad person you are.

    I don't think Don Brind would ever claim to be impartial, any more than would our very own ex BBC news man.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,921
    TudorRose said:

    Charles said:

    Incidentally I see that another Labour smear has been comprehensively discredited:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34540626

    As with much concerning Mr Watson, it seems the wish is father to the thought...
    I'm interested to read Tom Watson's full letter to the CPS, of which there's a transcript here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34509582

    Apparently the case was originally dismissed without interviewing Leon Brittan, which the letter states is irregular, and seems on the face of it to be so. That's presumably why after Tom Watson's intervention the case was reopened.

    I think Tom Watson is a corpulent little toad with a punchable face as much as the next man, but as far as this case goes he did what I hope we would all do in his shoes - pursue justice for the alleged victim.
    No. Watson was pursuing a political witch hunt. A crusade to get Watson on the news. He was using the victims of abuse as a stepping stone in his desire for a higher public profile.

    And don't trust everything Watson puts in a letter. I believe Brittan had been interviewed by this point - it is just that Watson didn't know about it.
    I don't trust everything he says either, but I also don't think he's stupid enough to put something so easy to refute in his letter without checking his facts. Had Brittan already been interviewed at this point the Met could have simply replied to that effect and taken no further action.

    It would also appear (and I do stress appear) that the fact that this lady was present and that she and Leon Brittan did have sex is not in dispute, or at least not beyond the realms of probability, otherwise her interviewers would not have pursued the line of the encounter being consensual.
    I haven't dug into the detail because it's not interesting.

    But I thought she claimed it was in his basement flat when he lived on the third floor & that there was no evidence she'd ever met him.
    I haven't heard any of her testimony.
    But you were happy to assert that a particular event was 'not beyond the realms of probability'. This is Watson's problem; having a suspicion and reporting it to the authorities is all very well but publishing it changes the world forever for the person being accused.
    No, I was happy to say in extremely measured terms that the contents of that letter appeared (emphasis added) to indicate that. Which they do. I speak as I find.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    TudorRose said:

    Charles said:

    Incidentally I see that another Labour smear has been comprehensively discredited:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34540626

    As with much concerning Mr Watson, it seems the wish is father to the thought...
    I'm interested to read Tom Watson's full letter to the CPS, of which there's a transcript here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34509582

    Apparently the case was originally dismissed without interviewing Leon Brittan, which the letter states is irregular, and seems on the face of it to be so. That's presumably why after Tom Watson's intervention the case was reopened.

    I think Tom Watson is a corpulent little toad with a punchable face as much as the next man, but as far as this case goes he did what I hope we would all do in his shoes - pursue justice for the alleged victim.
    No. Watson was pursuing a political witch hunt. A crusade to get Watson on the news. He was using the victims of abuse as a stepping stone in his desire for a higher public profile.

    And don't trust everything Watson puts in a letter. I believe Brittan had been interviewed by this point - it is just that Watson didn't know about it.
    I don't trust everything he says either, but I also don't think he's stupid enough to put something so easy to refute in his letter without checking his facts. Had Brittan already been interviewed at this point the Met could have simply replied to that effect and taken no further action.

    It would also appear (and I do stress appear) that the fact that this lady was present and that she and Leon Brittan did have sex is not in dispute, or at least not beyond the realms of probability, otherwise her interviewers would not have pursued the line of the encounter being consensual.
    I haven't dug into the detail because it's not interesting.

    But I thought she claimed it was in his basement flat when he lived on the third floor & that there was no evidence she'd ever met him.
    I haven't heard any of her testimony.
    But you were happy to assert that a particular event was 'not beyond the realms of probability'. This is Watson's problem; having a suspicion and reporting it to the authorities is all very well but publishing it changes the world forever for the person being accused.
    No, I was happy to say in extremely measured terms that the contents of that letter appeared (emphasis added) to indicate that. Which they do. I speak as I find.
    No, you said it was not in dispute, which is patently wrong.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,921
    TudorRose said:



    No, you said it was not in dispute, which is patently wrong.

    Are you feeling quite well? What I said is written above in black and white. Just click on it and read it again.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,744
    JEO said:

    From the PVV in the Netherlands: an easy win for Cameron's renegotiation?

    "Ask the EU to remove the "Dutch" star in the European flag."

    Given there are 28 nations in the EU and 12 stars in the flag, the EU could argue that it already has.
    Maybe we could ask for one in red, white and blue?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    John Swinney; Scotland is too wee and too poor...
    Scotland cannot afford to reverse all of the welfare cuts being imposed by Chancellor George Osborne, Deputy First Minister John Swinney has conceded.

    The Finance Secretary said it was "highly unlikely" he could find the cash to shield people north of the border from the impact of austerity measures.

    And he said he could not offer any guarantees that they would be reversed if the SNP was in charge of an independent Scotland.
    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/13873163.John_Swinney__Scotland_cannot_afford_to_reverse_all_welfare_cuts/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,140

    Just watched George Osborne interviewing Charles Moore at the Policy Exchange re the second of his books on Margaret Thatcher. Absolutely brilliant. You must watch.

    PS. What an absolute pratt Caroline Lucas made of herself last night in the HoC on Fiscal Charter vote.

    How so? This is what she said:

    "That is why economists are saying that the Chancellor’s silly trick is very bad economics, even if it is very clever politics to make all his friends laugh a lot."

    Seems fair enough to me.

    For a start, Osborne is going to rue the day if, in 2019, there is not a surplus.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,744
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And yet only 48 hours ago three predictions put the Tories ahead on seats:

    http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-seat-projections/

    The Liberals are way too short at 1.12-1.18

    And yet only 48 hours ago three predictions put the Tories ahead on seats:

    http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-seat-projections/

    The Liberals are way too short at 1.12-1.18

    The Liberals have opened a clear lead in the last week as the NDP collapse with the Tories stuck on around 29 to 30% and the Liberals now lead on seats
    So they have, but they are still priced way too short for just 9 days of clear leads.
    Maybe but the momentum is with Trudeau
    You're missing the point: I'm not saying the Liberals won't win most seats, I'm saying they are far too short.

    I look for betting value, and this is such an example. All forecasts have shown the Conservatives competitive for most seats, several as recent as two days ago.

    The polling with solid Liberal leads is very recent. It may, or may not, turn out to be a flash in the pan - heck, we've had plenty of examples of inaccurate polling this year - but to put this into perspective, this is much shorter than Corbyn's price was barely hours out from his final election victory where he'd had stonking leads for months, and all evidence pointed that way.

    It may be that Trudeau just falls shorts, or that he wins by a 1997 type landslide, or that Harper wins a narrow historic victory. We just don't know.

    The polls have been all over the place, and there is sufficient uncertainty for me to bet at that price.
  • I read this article earlier today and thought it best to defer comment.

    We then have an article smearing Mr Crosby. Written by an ex BBC journalist supposed to be impartial. But if your hero is Jack Jones a traitor paid by the KGB, what else should we expect?

    Mr Brind starts off with "Or will the “good guys” win this time?"

    So Mr Brind the bad guys are the Conservatives.... What a desperately sad person you are.

    I don't think Don Brind would ever claim to be impartial, any more than would our very own ex BBC news man.
    It is not possible to harbour such venomous thoughts and be an impartial reporter.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    TudorRose said:



    No, you said it was not in dispute, which is patently wrong.

    Are you feeling quite well? What I said is written above in black and white. Just click on it and read it again.
    Yes, I've reread it and it still says 'is not in dispute'.

    Without prolonging this, my point is simply that you appear (and I emphasise appear) to have repeated an allegation based on one piece of evidence (the letter). This is what Watson has done - made an allegation based on limited evidence. There is nothing wrong with this, but a problem arises as soon as the allegation is published because the world of the accused is irrevocably changed. Watson was, at best, casual about the publication of the allegations and, in my view, that's not acceptable.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    How so? This is what she said:

    Caroline Lucas: The moment to stop borrowing is when we can no longer afford to pay it back—[Laughter.]

    That is what she said

    What an absolute pratt Caroline Lucas made of herself last night in the HoC
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    TudorRose said:



    No, you said it was not in dispute, which is patently wrong.

    Are you feeling quite well? What I said is written above in black and white. Just click on it and read it again.

    “ she and Leon Brittan did have sex is not in dispute, or at least not beyond the realms of probability,”

    Perhaps you could expand on how you came to this conclusion, - given that Lord Brittan denied ever meeting the girl known as ‘Jane’ and that the police investigation that cleared him of the allegation found no evidence that corroborate her claim.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,140
    Scott_P said:


    How so? This is what she said:

    Caroline Lucas: The moment to stop borrowing is when we can no longer afford to pay it back—[Laughter.]

    That is what she said

    What an absolute pratt Caroline Lucas made of herself last night in the HoC
    Hmm. I'm not sure she explained it as she meant, but the basic premise is that governments can afford to borrow and what matters is not the total debt level but the ability to service the debt over the long term. This is heresy obviously, since this never happens, as for example, when people take on a mortgage to buy a house.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,062

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    And yet only 48 hours ago three predictions put the Tories ahead on seats:

    http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-seat-projections/

    The Liberals are way too short at 1.12-1.18

    And yet only 48 hours ago three predictions put the Tories ahead on seats:

    http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-seat-projections/

    The Liberals are way too short at 1.12-1.18

    The Liberals have opened a clear lead in the last week as the NDP collapse with the Tories stuck on around 29 to 30% and the Liberals now lead on seats
    So they have, but they are still priced way too short for just 9 days of clear leads.
    Maybe but the momentum is with Trudeau
    You're missing the point: I'm not saying the Liberals won't win most seats, I'm saying they are far too short.

    I look for betting value, and this is such an example. All forecasts have shown the Conservatives competitive for most seats, several as recent as two days ago.

    The polling with solid Liberal leads is very recent. It may, or may not, turn out to be a flash in the pan - heck, we've had plenty of examples of inaccurate polling this year - but to put this into perspective, this is much shorter than Corbyn's price was barely hours out from his final election victory where he'd had stonking leads for months, and all evidence pointed that way.

    It may be that Trudeau just falls shorts, or that he wins by a 1997 type landslide, or that Harper wins a narrow historic victory. We just don't know.

    The polls have been all over the place, and there is sufficient uncertainty for me to bet at that price.
    Well go ahead if you wish and see some value but the mood in Canada seems to be for change and heading more in that direction as election day looms
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Scott_P said:

    John Swinney; Scotland is too wee and too poor...

    Scotland cannot afford to reverse all of the welfare cuts being imposed by Chancellor George Osborne, Deputy First Minister John Swinney has conceded.

    The Finance Secretary said it was "highly unlikely" he could find the cash to shield people north of the border from the impact of austerity measures.

    And he said he could not offer any guarantees that they would be reversed if the SNP was in charge of an independent Scotland.
    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/13873163.John_Swinney__Scotland_cannot_afford_to_reverse_all_welfare_cuts/

    The last one is a killer, EVEN if the SNP were in charge of an independent scotland there would be no reversal to austerity welfare CUTS in scotland, and that's the No.2 SNP man saying it so it's the OFFICIAL SNP line.

    So what's the point of voting SNP then if an SNP ruled independent scotland would have the same economic policies as the Tory government?
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    Scott_P said:


    How so? This is what she said:

    Caroline Lucas: The moment to stop borrowing is when we can no longer afford to pay it back—[Laughter.]

    That is what she said

    What an absolute pratt Caroline Lucas made of herself last night in the HoC
    Hmm. I'm not sure she explained it as she meant, but the basic premise is that governments can afford to borrow and what matters is not the total debt level but the ability to service the debt over the long term. This is heresy obviously, since this never happens, as for example, when people take on a mortgage to buy a house.
    If MP's can't explain what they mean, perhaps they're better off remaining in their seats.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    the basic premise is that governments can afford to borrow

    The moment to stop borrowing is when we can no longer afford to pay it back

    Government's can't borrow indefinitely. There comes a point when they should pay it back

    It's a judgement call, but the judgement is that spending money on the NHS would be better than spending it on interest repayment.

    Unless you are Caroline Lucas or John McDonnell
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2015
    Despite the poor opinion polls overall, the Canadian Tories are forecast to increase their number of seats in Quebec from 5 to 11. Maybe voters there have finally warmed to Harper after ten years.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Scott_P said:


    How so? This is what she said:

    Caroline Lucas: The moment to stop borrowing is when we can no longer afford to pay it back—[Laughter.]

    That is what she said

    What an absolute pratt Caroline Lucas made of herself last night in the HoC
    Hmm. I'm not sure she explained it as she meant, but the basic premise is that governments can afford to borrow and what matters is not the total debt level but the ability to service the debt over the long term. This is heresy obviously, since this never happens, as for example, when people take on a mortgage to buy a house.
    A mortgage is secured against an asset, the lender is protected.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    Despite the poor opinion polls overall, the Canadian Tories are forecast to increase their number of seats in Quebec from 5 to 11. Maybe voters there have finally warmed to Harper after ten years.

    Catholics don't like muslims.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Not much money has been placed on Betfair Exchange's Canadian election page, but those punters that have seemed convinced the Liberals will win most seats:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.119830308
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited October 2015
    Scott_P said:

    the basic premise is that governments can afford to borrow

    The moment to stop borrowing is when we can no longer afford to pay it back

    Government's can't borrow indefinitely. There comes a point when they should pay it back

    It's a judgement call, but the judgement is that spending money on the NHS would be better than spending it on interest repayment.

    Unless you are Caroline Lucas or John McDonnell

    UK interest payments are around £46 billion / year.

    Imagine if that money was available for infrastructure or public services.

    (and that's just the interest, not the repayment)
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    AndyJS said:

    Latest Dutch polls put Geert Wilders' party miles ahead of any other party, with the election due in about 18 months' time:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Dutch_general_election#Opinion_polls

    I noticed that the other day. Populist parties across the EU have received a considerable boost in their poll ratings over the last couple of months.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    MP_SE said:

    AndyJS said:

    Latest Dutch polls put Geert Wilders' party miles ahead of any other party, with the election due in about 18 months' time:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Dutch_general_election#Opinion_polls

    I noticed that the other day. Populist parties across the EU have received a considerable boost in their poll ratings over the last couple of months.
    Wonder why?

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Wildly O/T: I'm planning to take up Osborne's pension freedom with a small works pension, worth £40000 - the idea is to take 25% as cash, transfer the rest into an annuity, and carry on paying into the fund as I'm continuing to work. Is there a Government website to work out how to do this for myself (I positively enjoy filling in forms and understanding complex rules), or should I take up an IFA's offer to do it for £140 now plus 0.6% of the annuity?

    Get an IFA to do it - you may be a masochist, but this is important to get right.

    But negotiate the fee: no f***ing way should he get a carried interest in your annuity. Pay a higher upfront if you need.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,422

    Scott_P said:


    How so? This is what she said:

    Caroline Lucas: The moment to stop borrowing is when we can no longer afford to pay it back—[Laughter.]

    That is what she said

    What an absolute pratt Caroline Lucas made of herself last night in the HoC
    Hmm. I'm not sure she explained it as she meant, but the basic premise is that governments can afford to borrow and what matters is not the total debt level but the ability to service the debt over the long term. This is heresy obviously, since this never happens, as for example, when people take on a mortgage to buy a house.
    A mortgage is secured against an asset, the lender is protected.

    Unless there is a property crash and the LTV was too high ;)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,921

    TudorRose said:



    No, you said it was not in dispute, which is patently wrong.

    Are you feeling quite well? What I said is written above in black and white. Just click on it and read it again.

    “ she and Leon Brittan did have sex is not in dispute, or at least not beyond the realms of probability,”

    Perhaps you could expand on how you came to this conclusion, - given that Lord Brittan denied ever meeting the girl known as ‘Jane’ and that the police investigation that cleared him of the allegation found no evidence that corroborate her claim.
    Are you on CRACK? My full sentence please??
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    edited October 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:


    How so? This is what she said:

    Caroline Lucas: The moment to stop borrowing is when we can no longer afford to pay it back—[Laughter.]

    That is what she said

    What an absolute pratt Caroline Lucas made of herself last night in the HoC
    Hmm. I'm not sure she explained it as she meant, but the basic premise is that governments can afford to borrow and what matters is not the total debt level but the ability to service the debt over the long term. This is heresy obviously, since this never happens, as for example, when people take on a mortgage to buy a house.
    A mortgage is secured against an asset, the lender is protected.

    Unless there is a property crash and the LTV was too high ;)
    There won't be another like the last, self dec and 125% mortgages are gone and now we have the ridiculous help to buy, where govt gives people taxpayers money to inflate the market and give people the impression they're wealthy.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,921

    Scott_P said:

    the basic premise is that governments can afford to borrow

    The moment to stop borrowing is when we can no longer afford to pay it back

    Government's can't borrow indefinitely. There comes a point when they should pay it back

    It's a judgement call, but the judgement is that spending money on the NHS would be better than spending it on interest repayment.

    Unless you are Caroline Lucas or John McDonnell

    UK interest payments are around £46 billion / year.

    Imagine if that money was available for infrastructure or public services.

    (and that's just the interest, not the repayment)
    Quite.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,062
    AndyJS said:

    Despite the poor opinion polls overall, the Canadian Tories are forecast to increase their number of seats in Quebec from 5 to 11. Maybe voters there have finally warmed to Harper after ten years.

    No they are not, Nanos yesterday had the Tories on 13.5% in Quebec, EKOS on 20.6% on Tuesday. The Tories won 16% in 2011 in Quebec so not much change http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151014 Ballot TrackingE.pdf
    http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_14_2015.pdf
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    MP_SE said:

    AndyJS said:

    Latest Dutch polls put Geert Wilders' party miles ahead of any other party, with the election due in about 18 months' time:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Dutch_general_election#Opinion_polls

    I noticed that the other day. Populist parties across the EU have received a considerable boost in their poll ratings over the last couple of months.
    I can't imagine why.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,744
    AndyJS said:

    Not much money has been placed on Betfair Exchange's Canadian election page, but those punters that have seemed convinced the Liberals will win most seats:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.119830308

    It's brave. The Liberals start from a very poor third place and need over a hundred gains.

    Election preduction project (which does bottom-up riding forecasts) puts the Tories and Liberals tied on "in the bag" seats, with an awful lot of toss ups:

    http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/index.php
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    Scott_P said:


    How so? This is what she said:

    Caroline Lucas: The moment to stop borrowing is when we can no longer afford to pay it back—[Laughter.]

    That is what she said

    What an absolute pratt Caroline Lucas made of herself last night in the HoC
    Since when have the Watermelons ever understood numbers or economics?
    Although to be fair, there were many more than our Caroline who made idiots of themselves in the Commons yesterday evening!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Despite the poor opinion polls overall, the Canadian Tories are forecast to increase their number of seats in Quebec from 5 to 11. Maybe voters there have finally warmed to Harper after ten years.

    No they are not, Nanos yesterday had the Tories on 13.5% in Quebec, EKOS on 20.6% on Tuesday. The Tories won 16% in 2011 in Quebec so not much change http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151014 Ballot TrackingE.pdf
    http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_14_2015.pdf
    While you are here, the latest PPP poll for Pennsylvania is out, it's bad for Hillary considering PPP is a democratic party pollster:

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/10/toomey-leads-narrowly-for-reelection-presidential-matches-split.html

    "General election match ups for President in Pennsylvania are a mixed bag. Hillary Clinton trails behind Ben Carson (47/43), Chris Christie (45/41), Marco Rubio (45/42), Donald Trump (45/43), and Carly Fiorina (43/42) in the state. But she has leads over John Kasich (41/39), Jeb Bush (45/40), Ted Cruz (46/40), Rick Santorum (47/39) and Mike Huckabee (47/38). Republicans leading half of the match ups is a pretty good sign for them in a state where they haven't won the general election in almost 30 years."

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046

    Scott_P said:

    the basic premise is that governments can afford to borrow

    The moment to stop borrowing is when we can no longer afford to pay it back

    Government's can't borrow indefinitely. There comes a point when they should pay it back

    It's a judgement call, but the judgement is that spending money on the NHS would be better than spending it on interest repayment.

    Unless you are Caroline Lucas or John McDonnell

    UK interest payments are around £46 billion / year.

    Imagine if that money was available for infrastructure or public services.

    (and that's just the interest, not the repayment)
    Or the reduction of the 20% income tax rate to 10%, and the 40% rate to 25%.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:


    How so? This is what she said:

    Caroline Lucas: The moment to stop borrowing is when we can no longer afford to pay it back—[Laughter.]

    That is what she said

    What an absolute pratt Caroline Lucas made of herself last night in the HoC
    To be fair, borrowing to the maximum theoretical capacity is a viable, albeit risky, strategy.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Charles said:

    To be fair, borrowing to the maximum theoretical capacity is a viable, albeit risky, strategy.

    What is the maximum theoretical capacity?

    And are we already past it...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,062

    AndyJS said:

    Not much money has been placed on Betfair Exchange's Canadian election page, but those punters that have seemed convinced the Liberals will win most seats:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.119830308

    It's brave. The Liberals start from a very poor third place and need over a hundred gains.

    Election preduction project (which does bottom-up riding forecasts) puts the Tories and Liberals tied on "in the bag" seats, with an awful lot of toss ups:

    http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/index.php
    Today's CBC projection has the Liberals ahead on 140 seats to the Tories 110
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:


    How so? This is what she said:

    Caroline Lucas: The moment to stop borrowing is when we can no longer afford to pay it back—[Laughter.]

    That is what she said

    What an absolute pratt Caroline Lucas made of herself last night in the HoC
    Hmm. I'm not sure she explained it as she meant, but the basic premise is that governments can afford to borrow and what matters is not the total debt level but the ability to service the debt over the long term. This is heresy obviously, since this never happens, as for example, when people take on a mortgage to buy a house.
    A mortgage is secured against an asset, the lender is protected.

    Unless there is a property crash and the LTV was too high ;)
    There won't be another like the last, self dec and 125% mortgages are gone and now we have the ridiculous help to buy, where govt gives people taxpayers money to inflate the market and give people the impression they're wealthy.
    In defence of Northern Rock, the loan loss ratio on their 125% loan portfolio was very small - much lower than on "normal" mortgages. The government sold off that part of the book a few weeks ago for a stonking profit
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,062
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Despite the poor opinion polls overall, the Canadian Tories are forecast to increase their number of seats in Quebec from 5 to 11. Maybe voters there have finally warmed to Harper after ten years.

    No they are not, Nanos yesterday had the Tories on 13.5% in Quebec, EKOS on 20.6% on Tuesday. The Tories won 16% in 2011 in Quebec so not much change http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151014 Ballot TrackingE.pdf
    http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_14_2015.pdf
    While you are here, the latest PPP poll for Pennsylvania is out, it's bad for Hillary considering PPP is a democratic party pollster:

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/10/toomey-leads-narrowly-for-reelection-presidential-matches-split.html

    "General election match ups for President in Pennsylvania are a mixed bag. Hillary Clinton trails behind Ben Carson (47/43), Chris Christie (45/41), Marco Rubio (45/42), Donald Trump (45/43), and Carly Fiorina (43/42) in the state. But she has leads over John Kasich (41/39), Jeb Bush (45/40), Ted Cruz (46/40), Rick Santorum (47/39) and Mike Huckabee (47/38). Republicans leading half of the match ups is a pretty good sign for them in a state where they haven't won the general election in almost 30 years."

    About to head to the gym but Biden leads all the GOP candidates in the same poll and it was taken pre yesterday's debate where the general consensus is Hillary performed well
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @janinegibson: Southwark Council robustly denies Batmanghelidjh’s claims it refused Kids Co clients. http://t.co/HaxUO2htvH http://t.co/rkqwtpZE7m

    @DPMcBride: A great job by @bernardjenkin and his PAC colleagues today, finally exposing the KidsCo scam that has blackmailed ministers for years.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,744
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Not much money has been placed on Betfair Exchange's Canadian election page, but those punters that have seemed convinced the Liberals will win most seats:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.119830308

    It's brave. The Liberals start from a very poor third place and need over a hundred gains.

    Election preduction project (which does bottom-up riding forecasts) puts the Tories and Liberals tied on "in the bag" seats, with an awful lot of toss ups:

    http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/index.php
    Today's CBC projection has the Liberals ahead on 140 seats to the Tories 110
    Yes, I know it does - but that supports my case: it's much closer than the betting markets suggest. Several predictions this week have shown the Tories ahead on seats.

    I know you're hoping Harper will lose, but I'm looking for value.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    To be fair, borrowing to the maximum theoretical capacity is a viable, albeit risky, strategy.

    What is the maximum theoretical capacity?

    And are we already past it...
    The point at which you can no longer afford to pay it back...

    (Although as we can print money to repay it, arguably sterling debt capacity is unlimited, although clearly not without consequences)
Sign In or Register to comment.