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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Antifrank’s 50/1 tip to be next Labour leader
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Antifrank’s 50/1 tip to be next Labour leader
Jeremy Corbyn has been leader of the Labour party for just over a fortnight and already there are rumblings about who might replace him. Some bookies already have markets up and running (though they may well have more value at present for publicity rather than for making money). Are there any bargains out there?
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http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/03/us/politics/firefighters-union-backs-away-from-endorsement-of-hillary-clinton.html?_r=0
Not that anti-austerity is not a viable strategy, it is and can be argued as such. But the press will be mercilessly attacking his past and as we have seen even with silly things like singing the National Anthem , much will be made out of them.
Have you ever seen any US President sing their National Anthem ? Come to think of it, have you seen a British PM sing the NA ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4F8i89vWAw
Here's Hillary:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQYIHQvhIk0
Anyone who's tried understands why politicians would prefer not to sing the Star Spangled Banner.
Of course like above I've cherrypicked the data months, but if you go like for like in months it is still about 2% per annum and not 1% per annum. People enter the workforce at the bottom all the time but considerable change has occured here not just churn.
Objectively the shadow Chancellor has to be a serious contender for succeeding the Leader of the Opposition.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/what-hell-going_1039621.html
If JC chooses to go then a younger candidate from the radical left is more likely, imho.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3258579/Man-said-abused-VIP-paedophile-ring-claims-manipulated-news-website-led-crusade-against-politicians.html
Can't say I'm surprised. Might this cause some small difficulties for Tom Watson?
Hard to assess the validity of the model as it is not described. But it does appear that there is some assumption that even negative stories help the candidates.
Anyone with knowledge of this field have any views on this?
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/10/02/edge-rubio-bush-fiorina-and-cruz-win-week/
Phillip I agree with the comment "John McDonell is a good media performer and will get better"
I now understand why Gordon Brown did not want to stand against him in a full labour leadership contest in 2007.
Would Tom Watson be counted as 'Next Labour Leader' ?
If not then McDonnell must stand a good chance of winning an emergency leadership election.
Quite a surprise - I have only escaped by a couple of miles. Matlock and Ashbourne should look to Derby/Nottingham in a sane division. Ashbourne is 13 miles from Derby, but 35 from Sheffield.
It all depends on the powers it has - economic development is fine, but Planning and Edcuation policy at City Region level would be a mess. Hopefully there's enough of the rest to keep the Sheffield lot in check
At least the Peak National Park will probably stop them building on any more Derbyshire Hills or putting in more reservoirs, unlike in the 1920s/30s.
There's always some Smart Alec of a techno who will leave the mic switched on!
And it puts Knavish Scots into perspective:
Yep. But here's an unofficial USA national anthem that is very singable:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rgR1GLLhXk
Labour's Denis Healey dies at 98
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34434378#"
Hang on
I did!!
I doubt that Corbyn, who already dodges some of the MSM, cannot speak without constant referral to notes, but can rant the same old marxist claptrap without pause, will last more than six months at the helm.
A very good man, but terribly naive as he panicked in 1976 with the IMF and he botched his Labour leadership election campaign with a single phrase "you have nowhere else to go" .
I'm also backing Ecosse to beat the Proteas
@JohnRentoul: Antifrank’s on why he's taken 50/1 on John McDonnell to be next Labour leader: well, why not?
I agree with John Rentoul and Antifrank.
If Corbyn is Labour's IDS* then we should remember when IDS was toppled it was his Shadow Chancellor that replaced him.
*I have huge doubts that Corbyn is Labour's IDS, he's much much worse and toxic.
Dennis Healey remained to remind everyone of the Callaghan government, both ups and downs.
If he was elected leader in 1980 Labour would had split between it's establishment and it's base though. Labour was ripe for a major split over the economy since Healey's IMF situation, Foot was the only candidate that could and did limit the inevitable split as he kept the left wing base and stood up to Benn, while losing only a few from it's right.
Healey never had the credentials to stand up to the far-left.
Who am I to disagree?
Mind you I've gone balls deep on the Aussies to win tonight.
Will help with the pain losing to the flaming galahs.
I am not sure the premise is too solid though. For a start the hard left is a term invented by the Labour Party's enemies and is designed to scare the horses not illuminate anything. Someone like Jeremy Corbyn has very little in common with someone like Derek Hatton.
It is also quite a stretch to assume that all Corbyn's supporters are describable as left wing, let alone that they will form a cohesive grouping that would reliably back a single candidate in the future. The candidates that were offered this summer didn't represent a spread of the opinion in the party. There were three right wingers. One was very right and one was not terribly sure himself where he stood to be sure, but they were all pretty much offering the same direction. To pick the alternative to their offering doesn't necessarily mean you are all that extreme in your opinions.
The appeal of Blairism was always that it looked like wining. I can easily see it making a comeback. They just need a candidate that looks like a winner.
Great away win for the foxes!
That is one of the funniest lines I've read on PB in ages. Well done on lightening my afternoon.
I agree, though, that given all that has come to pass, the 50/1 on McDonnell is too high, but I'll not be wasting my money. Next time the modernisers/central left are likely to make sure they have only one candidate; plus how many of the £3 will be utterly disillusioned by then? Already they've had to swallow backtracking on energy companies, with higher edu fees next up.
And, finally, no one seems to know what happens if there is a challenge candidate next summer and Corbyn needs to get 35 MPs to nominate him? They likes of Margaret Beckett won't be lending any nominations next time. He has about 20 I'd guess.
By all accounts he was a hugely entertaining man personally - and author of tremendously readable and informative books. A great man and a genuine public servant has left us. We should mourn with his family and give thanks for all he gave our country.
https://www.facebook.com/DavidCameronOfficial?fref=nf
I also agree that the odds for Labour right wingers are too short, the Labour party is left wing and still has bad memories from Blair, as such not even Hillary Benn has much chances as does any member of the last Labour government, whom the public and the members are trying to forget.
But it is very premature to speculate about the next party leaders, especially Labour, future events and personalities of the next 5 years are too obscure right know to make a judgement.
The answer doesn't really matter - the fact that the question has to be asked demonstrates to what extent labour are stuffed.
The 50's started with the Korean war which took till 1953 to end.
The 60's had increasingly social and economic instability towards it's end, the first union troubles, the 70's malaise and race riots made their first appearances in the late 60's.
The 90's had the ERM fiasco with Britain stuck in recession from 1990 till the ERM collapse.
So in essence the calm years between 1914 and 1993 were 1927-1929, 1935-1938, 1954-1955, 1957-1966, 1986-1989.
Speaking personally, we had many interesting conversations when I was first elected to Parliament in 1983 and I found him a decent and very knowledgeable man who I enjoyed engaging with, particularly in his work as Shadow Foreign Secretary. Labour is built on people with the commitment of those who devote their lives to public service, as Denis Healey did.
The thoughts of everyone in the Labour Party are with his family at this time.'
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10153687873398872&id=330250343871&refid=52&_ft_=top_level_post_id.10153687873398872:tl_objid.10153687873398872
Keep your powder dry, 5 years is a long time.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQZ93W-WoAEktB8.jpg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpKz54bxXuU
Two days later, an anonymous gift of £1000 arrived via the regional party, and as the election progressed and we again ran low, a further £1000 arrived. Bemused, I asked Region where all this was coming from. "Denis, of course," they said. "But he asked for it to be kept private, he didn't want to speak when his friend had just died, but he also didn't want you to lose out. And he doesn't want any fuss or credit."
My current plan is to finish reading the fabulous The Power of the Dog, and then move onto (game-wise):
Civ IV
and
Half Life 2 (which I've owned for 12 years but never played).
Any other suggestions will be gratefully received.
Meanwhile he or his allies have just killed 19 patients in a Medecin sans frontiere hospital near Kabul. The 'allied' spokesman said the Taliban have been known to hide in hospitals in the past from which we must assume the attack wasn't an accident.
I'm starting to think the world would be a much better place if he stuck to shagging pigs and left international affairs to Putin.