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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Corbyn needs saving from his “friends”

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,995
    RobD said:

    Fishing said:

    Off topic, but here's a golden thread head from December 2013 that I clicked on by accident when I was looking for something else:

    "Time to make some money from the CON majority fantasists"

    Ahem:

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/185546/#Comment_185546

    But what do PB Tories know?
    Ah the PB archives. A source of much merriment for all sides of the spectrum.
    To be fair, not so much UKIP.....
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2015
    Incidentally, I have no idea where that stat that that less than half of current Lab supporters would prefer Corbyn to be PM over Osborne came from.

    The dataset shows Corbyn leading with Lab voters by 61% to Osborne's 7%. Among the whole electorate, Osborne is ahead 33-24, with 43% saying "not sure". (From memory, I think that is a smaller lead than Cameron ever had over Miliband).

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ii9ytqtjhm/NStables_150917_W5.pdf
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046

    The Conservative Party is not "Put up with" It got more votes than any other party..that is why it is in Government..

    Just another attempt to delegitimise the evil baby eating Tories.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited September 2015


    I don't deny that @MyBurningEars comments on O-Levels being harder isn't academic fact. .... Even if it is when we are older it feels vengeful and also pointless - almost that we are at fault for the way the system is and that we mustn't be too happy when we do well, at GCSE, A-Level, or degree level otherwise we are getting too 'cocky' and whatnot. That is what I was getting upset about and how does feel that whenever young people are mentioned on this website, its' always in a negative manner - that our grades, and degrees are worthless. That can be a bit demoralising, from my POV.

    My dear old thing, please don't take it personally. There's no need for a chip on your shoulder - you got your grades under the system you did, and they were good enough for what you wanted to do, so well done. I got my grades under the system I did, and I am enough of a dilettante in educational history to be well aware of previous generations undertaking a system of study very different from my own, and in some ways more rigorous.*

    It's a mistake to read into someone's professional or personal experience, some kind of direct personal attack on you and your generation, and particularly to read in any kind of blame. Obviously you are in an unusual position in this forum, whereby your studies, and your admirable drive to attain higher qualifications, have largely defined the present course of your life. As such, exam grades and degree certificates right now seem really really important, and criticism unduly personal. But once time distances us from these things, perspectives shift. Pieces of paper, no matter how hard-won, have very little value except as box-ticking exercises. They gather dust. There comes a time when you have to dig your original certificates out for a job application because you can't remember what boards you sat; later you need it to establish what grade you got. There are exams where, eventually, you need to see the grade sheet to remember that you sat that exam at all.

    Skills, attitudes, experience and employability, though, are vital, ever-current and fluid. They are far more important than mere qualifications, and their development is something we tend to underinvest in (this underinvestment is not just a generalisation from personal experience, there are some very interesting econometric papers to this effect). As such you should probably care less about your degree certificate, and rather more about the mind-opening and prospect-enhancing opportunities that your time at university presents you with.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I am Justinian. Good result; maybe Orange clinched it.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited September 2015
    For what it's worth, much of the substantive content of my own degrees has long lapsed from memory, though some skills and concepts remain. Moreover I can't even recall what papers I sat (you'd call them "modules" in this brave new age of Bologna-transferable credits), and for my first degree this information was not put on my transcript. Not only do I no longer remember what I learned, but from now to my dying day I will likely never even discern what is was that I studied. Every few years I try counting papers on my fingers; on average I can recall probably between half and two-thirds of them - hard to know for sure as I can't remember how many papers there were. This troubles me not one jot, which shows just how much a degree really matters. (Disclaimer: personal opinion only. Your opinion may differ. After a few decades, it might not differ quite so much.)

    * As for the educational undertakings of those who had gone before, this applies on a generational level - I have, as some PBers are aware, an interest in old textbooks (if anyone has some going spare, do let me know) and some interesting stuff was scrubbed from the syllabuses probably well before any PBers even reached school age. At teacher training college we had to teach a mock lesson to our fellow trainees - preferably something high school level but which they wouldn't be familiar with. I went with the traditional "by hand" method for finding square roots, and nobody there knew it, even the wise old heads who were training us - I guess any of them who had to find square roots manually at school in pre-calculator days used log tables or a slide rule, rather than the algorithm (which resembles a particularly tortu[r]ous form of long division). Apparently it was taught in the USA until more recently, certainly as late as the 1940s and perhaps to the 1960s.

    But also applies on a historic scale. My first Director of Studies at Oxbridge was a theoretical physicist, an expert in certain theories about gravitational fields. A very specialist domain, that left her unable to communicate at a serious mathematical level with the college's resident pure mathematician (who had his own curious little niche). One thing I used to discuss with her is how people like Leibniz came to be world-leading experts in so many fields (Gottfried was a multilingual philogist, innovative mathematician, natural scientist, moral philosopher, logician, librarian and systematiser... I could go on). Clearly part of the answer is we know much more now, so it is no longer possible to be "a man who knows everything". But that's only a partial answer: that breadth and depth of thought, easily equivalent to a dozen modern university degrees, can only be explained by someone who read and studied a hell of a lot. Where are his like today? Utterly sobering. Yet in the age of Leibniz, the vast majority of children couldn't read and never went to school, so only an oaf could deny social progress.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Actually those Corbyn vs Osborne stats look quite promising for Corbyn. Jez is even slightly ahead among "potential" Lab voters.
  • Massive UKIP popcorn incoming (just read the url!):

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/major-ukip-donor-says-partys-only-mp-is-borderline-autistic?utm_term=.wavRL4vVE#.wdVp8v0Pd

    See also Update 2 here:

    At a press briefing, Nigel Farage has accused Carswell of having some ‘residual loyalty’ to his former colleagues Conservative party.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/09/exclusive-ukip-split-widens-as-douglas-carswell-backs-other-leave-campaign/
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Hard to see this ending well... Retweeted by Dougie himself

    https://twitter.com/dmccaffreysky/status/647447517286809601
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Carswell to become an independent?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    edited September 2015

    Massive UKIP popcorn incoming (just read the url!):

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/major-ukip-donor-says-partys-only-mp-is-borderline-autistic?utm_term=.wavRL4vVE#.wdVp8v0Pd

    See also Update 2 here:

    At a press briefing, Nigel Farage has accused Carswell of having some ‘residual loyalty’ to his former colleagues Conservative party.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/09/exclusive-ukip-split-widens-as-douglas-carswell-backs-other-leave-campaign/

    The strategic popcorn reserve is running desperately low.
  • Not exactly a good advert for the UKIP united banner of anti-EU organisations.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    isam said:

    Hard to see this ending well... Retweeted by Dougie himself

    https://twitter.com/dmccaffreysky/status/647447517286809601

    That is really offensive and Banks should be expelled from UKIP.

    It is things like this which have made my decision to rejoin the Tories that little bit easier.
  • RobD said:

    Massive UKIP popcorn incoming (just read the url!):

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/major-ukip-donor-says-partys-only-mp-is-borderline-autistic?utm_term=.wavRL4vVE#.wdVp8v0Pd

    See also Update 2 here:

    At a press briefing, Nigel Farage has accused Carswell of having some ‘residual loyalty’ to his former colleagues Conservative party.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/09/exclusive-ukip-split-widens-as-douglas-carswell-backs-other-leave-campaign/

    The strategic popcorn reserve is running desperately low.
    Another unwanted Labour legacy.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    I love ukip, they take incompetence to a whole new, previously untapped level. But not to worry, the peoples army is on the march.
  • A split in a party with only one MP would be impressive.
  • MP_SE said:

    isam said:

    Hard to see this ending well... Retweeted by Dougie himself

    https://twitter.com/dmccaffreysky/status/647447517286809601

    That is really offensive and Banks should be expelled from UKIP.

    It is things like this which have made my decision to rejoin the Tories that little bit easier.
    Every party's major donors have been embarrassing lately. Lord Ashcroft was bad but the worst offenders were probably Unite what with the whole Corbyn thing.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046

    A split in a party with only one MP would be impressive.

    Especially after having their own backbench rebellion.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    "borderline autistic with mental illness wrapped in"

    Since when is that an ok thing to say about someone?
  • Pong said:

    "borderline autistic with mental illness wrapped in"

    Since when is that an ok thing to say about someone?

    That's practically affectionate within UKIP.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,774
    RobD said:

    A split in a party with only one MP would be impressive.

    Especially after having their own backbench rebellion.
    Well Alex Ferguson said Denis Wise could start a fight in an empty house!
  • JEO said:

    Sean_F said:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/77o2dwfn5y/GB_September_Full_Trackers_Website.pdf

    Yougov has Leave ahead by 41:38%. There are the usual splits by age, class, and political party.

    Conservative voters are supporting Leave by almost 2:1. Is there insight here about betting on Cameron's successor. If the thing is as acrimonious as the Scottish referendum, isn't it quite likely the Tories will want to elect someone that backed the Leave campaign?
    Whatever happens now, I don't think Cameron can risk a full-throated endorsement of our future as an EU member: he'd risk splitting his own party.

    I expect he'll recommend we Remain as the balance of our interests still favours remaining on these renegotiated terms for now, but with caveats and a green-light to ministers who disagree to campaign diffferently.
  • Mr. Foxinsox, orange did not clinch it.
  • F1: Merhi bet has been voided. Not too surprised, but mildly peeved it counted as a loss and the correction was to void rather than win.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited September 2015

    Massive UKIP popcorn incoming (just read the url!):

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/major-ukip-donor-says-partys-only-mp-is-borderline-autistic?utm_term=.wavRL4vVE#.wdVp8v0Pd

    See also Update 2 here:

    At a press briefing, Nigel Farage has accused Carswell of having some ‘residual loyalty’ to his former colleagues Conservative party.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/09/exclusive-ukip-split-widens-as-douglas-carswell-backs-other-leave-campaign/

    Ah, the true character of the Farage Party exposed.

    Bigotry, vanity and jealousy.

    The UKIP Spitfire is ablaze, and about to crash into the White Cliffs.
  • Thanks for the insightful reply @MyBurningEars.You're certainly right that for me (and I think a lot of other young people as well) that exam success and qualifications are pretty big parts of our identities, and how we see ourselves.

    And on UKIP - wow those comments are really unnecessary.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    watford30 said:

    Massive UKIP popcorn incoming (just read the url!):

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/major-ukip-donor-says-partys-only-mp-is-borderline-autistic?utm_term=.wavRL4vVE#.wdVp8v0Pd

    See also Update 2 here:

    At a press briefing, Nigel Farage has accused Carswell of having some ‘residual loyalty’ to his former colleagues Conservative party.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/09/exclusive-ukip-split-widens-as-douglas-carswell-backs-other-leave-campaign/

    Ah, the true character of the Farage Party exposed.

    Bigotry, vanity and jealousy.

    The UKIP Spitfire is ablaze, and about to crash into the White Cliffs.
    To be fair to UKIP you could equally be describing Labour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,421

    F1: Merhi bet has been voided. Not too surprised, but mildly peeved it counted as a loss and the correction was to void rather than win.

    What bet was this ?
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Danny565 said:

    Carswell to become an independent?

    Or a Tory? I't feels to me as though he's voted more often with the Government since the recess than David Davis has.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TudorRose said:

    Danny565 said:

    Carswell to become an independent?

    Or a Tory? I't feels to me as though he's voted more often with the Government since the recess than David Davis has.
    The return of Carswell to the fold would be quite a blow to the kippers. I think independent is more likely though.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Which are you?

    http://www.medievalists.net/2015/06/24/which-roman-or-byzantine-emperor-are-you/

    Apologies to Mr Dancer: this might be a little too modern for him.

    I am, apparently, Roman Emperor Constantine. You may all address me as such in the future you unworthy, unwashed plebs.

    And I am Caesar Augustus...
  • Mr. Pulpstar, pre-Singapore I bet on Merhi not to be classified in that race (a confident bet, given he wasn't driving in it). It initially returned as a lost bet.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    All I can say is that my parents are working class swing voters who voted Tory last time. They were repelled by Miliband's weirdness. They were initially appalled by Corbyn - they read the Express and bought the whole scare story. But after a brief chat with me they changed their minds and decided to give Corbyn a go. I have a feeling Corbyn is a lot more saleable than Miliband ever was to the uncommitted. Let's face it, how many people know somebody like Miliband? Whereas most people have a slightly eccentric member of their family who resembles Corbyn.



    If my parents were worried about my feelings they wouldn't keep going on about that bloody sander I borrowed once and unknowingly returned broken.

    It was just an anecdote. It has been such a widely held notion that Labour can't win with a left wing leader, and one I have always held myself, that seeing anything that contradicts it seems notable.



    Recidivist

    I think your anecdote about your parents provides some insight. Too many on here are underestimating Corbyn's potential electoral appeal. Namely, that he is demonstrably not 'like all the rest'. For people who would like to vote for someone who is in their mind authentic and not a hypocrite, I can see that he potentially appeals in a way that Ed Miliband never did.

    However, on the other hand there is the history: the links with the IRA, Hammas etc. which the press and the Tories will certainly go to town with. The question is are the Labour-inclined voters who will be repelled by all that stuff more in number than the Labour-inclined voters who are basically anti-Politician, and to whom Corbyn might appeal. Corbyn's personal abstemiousness, the fact that he is one of the few MPs to have come out well from the expenses investigations will be attractive to some (it's why he succeeded in the leadership election, in a way that Diane Abbot could never have done). And the more he gets attacked, the more the view that he is a victim of the establishment will be reinforced.

    Finally and personally, I might add that as someone who has always been a Labour supporter, and who voted for Ed Miliband's Labour after some hesitation, I definitely would not vote for a Corbyn-led Labour party. Like Manchester Kurt my vote is with the LDs for the time being. And in my case that matters, because I live in a constituency in which the Labour majority over the Tories is only around 250 votes.

    As it happens my parents live in a marginal too. I live in a Tory seat so blue it makes no difference whatever how I vote, so influencing my old folk is the only way I can have any impact on the outcome of an election. I don' I think the reality is that we won't know for some time what the effect of Corbyn is. We really haven't had this situation before.

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    I am Justinian. Good result; maybe Orange clinched it.

    I thought Justinian supported the Blues?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,985
    @MyBurning Ears

    I went with the traditional "by hand" method for finding square roots, and nobody there knew it, even the wise old heads who were training us - I guess any of them who had to find square roots manually at school in pre-calculator days used log tables or a slide rule, rather than the algorithm (which resembles a particularly tortu[r]ous form of long division).
    Interesting. We had a lesson on that at the end of our 4th Year when we did O Level Maths, after we had finished the course a year early. Just possibly it was 12 months later when we had done Additional Maths during that year.

    This was early 1980s in the Cambridge Syllabus, which also included some calculus iirc.

    Independent School top stream, and Ed Davey was a classmate.

    Good fun.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    I am Justinian. Good result; maybe Orange clinched it.

    I thought Justinian supported the Blues?
    Justinian was a big meanie to Belisarius. His missus was interesting though.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    I am Justinian. Good result; maybe Orange clinched it.

    I picked blue and got Justinian.

    And yes, probably the most satisfying outcome.
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