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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Corbyn needs saving from his “friends”
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Corbyn needs saving from his “friends”
Although the leadership failed to recruit some of the front benchers they wanted to keep there has been none of the flouncing out that Polly Toynbee warned against.
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I wish it wasn't so, but it remains the ultimate "hole" in all systems.
It's also one of the reasons why I increasingly beginning to think that maybe some kind of ID card scheme is the future. You can't work, you can't claim benefits, you can't open a bank account... etc etc without an ID card.
No thanks.
Betting PostF1: pre-qualifying piece up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/japan-pre-qualifying.html
Backed Sainz to reach Q3 at 3.5. Given qualifying will be dry and P1/P2 were wet, it may be a shade brave, but I do think he's mispriced.
Or we could do what the Americans do, and take finger prints from every non-citizen flying into the country.
ID cards are tyrannical nonsense.
'Honesty' is clearly Corbyn's trump card, but that will lose power very quickly if his views are contemptible.
Nick Griffin was probably an 'honest' politician. What you saw was what you got.
The large number of rightwingers in the party sitting on their hands suggests that he continues to have a major problem.
I have always opposed ID cards on principle. To my mind, it is the state which need to identify and justify itself to me. That is, of course, the state as described by AJP Taylor at the start of his magisterial book [1].
But given I am in a minority one on many things, we need to be realistic about what are the best measures to achieve our goals, while minimising disruption for people and business. Stopping commerce to stop refugees is just another way of impoverishing ourselves. Therefore, we need to come up with an alternative. Maybe ID cards are part of the solution. They can be relatively cheaply implemented, can actually ease the passage of legitimate travellers across Europe, and yet could dramatically reduce the attractiveness of the UK to refugees and economic migrants from North Africa.
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[1]: "Until August 1914 a sensible, law-abiding Englishman could pass through life and hardly notice the existence of the state, beyond the post office and the policeman. He could live where he liked and as he liked. He had no official number or identity card. He could travel abroad or leave his country for ever without a passport or any sort of official permission. He could exchange his money for any other currency without restriction or limit. He could buy goods from any country in the world on the same terms as he bought goods at home."
A bond of trust has been abused, something of value may be lost
Give up your job.
There are more than enough to fight and oppose, why waste good time fighting the people you like?
Don't feel so ashamed to have friends
Yours sincerely
A friend
http://youtu.be/M8N3OEMgqZQ
The United Kingdom is especially badly hit by the EU’s tariff regime, because it is the only European country that trades more outside the customs union than within it.
http://www.capx.co/britain-is-badly-hit-by-the-eus-tariff-regime/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b06bnqsy
I'm totally against ID cards on so many levels. Solve the problem of illegal immigrants - don't create another way for the State to control data, decide if you exist or not and to then lose all the data about you to fraudsters.
Margaret Thatcher faced exactly the same problem. Everyone knew (or thought they knew) that she wanted to do more rightwing things. But she successfully persuaded the public that she would keep her instincts in check. Only when she stopped doing so did she lose the nation's consent to be governed and she was bundled out of power.
Jeremy Corbyn seems not even to understand that there is a problem here.
What we want to do is to minimise illegal immigration, while minimising disruption for citizens, for legitimate tourists, and for businesses.
I hate ID cards in principle. But right now, most of the proposals on here will affect legitimate citizens and business travellers, while not really doing that much to limit illegal immigration.
I don't see that there is a resolution to squaring the circle that is attracting floating voters with a party led by a leader elected by the far left, other than the Gordian one.
What's your solution?
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4567155.ece
UKIP leader Nigel Farage has said his party is not his priority as he dedicates its annual conference to the campaign to leave the EU.
Party members and activists are gathering in Doncaster, with Mr Farage to deliver a speech at noon.
He said there would be a "surprise" coming together of all anti-EU groups in the country in a "show of unity".
It was also revealed strategist Lynton Crosby's firm had rejected an offer to help one of the No campaigns.
UKIP, which is committed to Britain withdrawing from the European Union, had launched its own No campaign for the referendum, which the government has pledged to hold by 2018.
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A Leader that neglects his power base, (the party) is not doing his duty.
If Nigel Farage want's to spend all his time on the Out Ref., he should resign his position and let UKIP elect a new leader.
Borrowing in August higher than expected.
1. Syed Kamal - not convinced, a bit of a regular loser, but not expecting him to get that far so playing around the media messaging with a bit of healthy tokenism
2. Zac - because he has the best chance of beating Khan
Worth reading !
"But the ONS stressed that the monthly figures are volatile and that the figures for the financial year so far may provide a better picture.
However, borrowing in the first five months of the financial year was £38.4bn, which is £4.4bn below the level at the same point last year."
Don't chase the monthly figures, you'll go all cross-eyed.
Bad news for all of us.
Not to exist.
(Note, I'm not in favour of ID cards, but I'm not sure yours is a good argument against them).
Cameron is famous for giving speeches without notes or an autocue.
While Corbyn has a bar so low that learning to use an autocue would be a success.
He also seemed to be implying that he/ they had achieved the referendum policy during the election, but it was known about before and sneered at by kippers. If the Tory vote had split and Miliband elected we would not be talking about a referendum now.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/introducing-govuk-verify/introducing-govuk-verify
Just terrible - starting with autocue and a speech that actually had some joined up themes would be a massive stride forward.
As you note - the bar is so low, limbo dancing under it may be impossible.
If someone wants to steal my identity, then what better way than to fake an ID card, walk into my bank and empty the account. It must be me, the card says so.
OK - my examples are contrived because I am doing it off-the-cuff. People did a better job explaining the flaws some years ago when ID cards looked like they definitely being issued. One thing I do recall is that Govt is poor at matching data to the person. A significant portion of CRB / DBS checks are incorrect and have to be challenged because the data is filed against the wrong people. IIRC the figure was 10% of CRBs. Govt got my National Insurance number wrong once and it took six years to sort it out. There is a real danger that boimetrics and names will not match up on many cards.
There was a German govt minister some years back who waffled on about secure ID systems at a conference. He drank from a glass of water and someone lifted his fingerprint from the glass and then demonstrated how they "became" him once they had a rubber mold of his fingerprint.
Dodgy stuff.
Talking of platitudes, the interesting Guardian 'long read' on the Corbyn earthquake, which was cited on the previous thread, contains this little snippet:
as an exhausted and distressed Miliband sat with his advisers on the morning after the election, in a party headquarters smelling of stale beer and despair, he made it clear that he could not face another prime minister’s questions – a decision strongly supported by Justine Thornton, his wife. “I want my Ed back,” she said that morning.
He really didn't have what it takes, did he? It's a tough job, and he should never have deluded himself that he was up to it.
For that matter, does Jeremy Corbyn understand how tough it will be?
It took many months to sort that out and it was only because my doorstep reaction was to fall about laughing that the inspector began to doubt her sheaves of paperwork.
To reply to Casino and others on the last thread who were effectively saying, "Why is this amiable-sounding Blairite spouting Corbynite apologia?", the answer is partly that I'm a left-winger who felt Blairism was a reasonable halfway house, but I'm still basically left-wing, and identify with Jeremy in many ways, right down to the irritation with personal appearance and lack of interest in slanging matches. I like him and hope he'll succeed, though I'm under no illusions that it'll be easy. I think the scorn that a lot of posters feel for his opinions are blinding them to some of his positives, but we'll see how it works out.
More generally, PB benefits from having a range of people across the spectrum who express themselves moderately. I've been posting here for a decade and think of lots of people here as friends. We may think our respective opinions are a bit bizarre at times, but that's OK. There is little correlation between pleasantness and political opinion, for all that we might like to think otherwise.
That worked so well in providing crossover to Lib Dem support didn't it?
Corbyn is already busy practising with an Autocue. No doubt the big joke on it will be the one about his tie.
Corbyn will not say much that is different from what Miliband would have said or did say last year. So no matter how much it is dressed up with his own brand of left wingery it will still be the same labour party dissembling to the nation and fooling of themselves.
According to CCC, the print of Schauble’s index finger was lifted from a water glass that he used during a panel discussion that he participated in last year at a German university. CCC published the print on a piece of plastic inside 4,000 copies of its magazine Die Datenschleuder that readers can use to impersonate the minister to biometric readers.
http://www.wired.com/2008/03/hackers-publish/
and they have done it again without physical access to the person in question.
... a speaker at the Chaos Communication Congress, an annual meeting of hackers in Germany, demonstrated his method for faking fingerprints using only a few high-definition photographs of his target, German defence minister Ursula von der Leyen.
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/dec/30/hacker-fakes-german-ministers-fingerprints-using-photos-of-her-hands
It's easy to forget, but in the lead up to the 2010 election one of questions of the Tories was 'can they run the country'? It might seem silly, but when a party's been out of power for 13 years that question mark hangs over them, not matter how polished and professional the leadership team may come across as.
Conversely, at the 2015 election, I didn't get the feeling that Labour's ability to run the country was in question. It's quite easy to remember back to Labour being in power, and I think the public had some respect for people like Alistair Darling.
By 2020, however, it will have been a decade since Labour have run the country and I'd have thought that this most basic of questions will be more prominent in the minds of the voters.
An EU referendum would be a far more widely-covered and publicly-engaged affair.
Labour’s shadow foreign secretary today warned the Government not to deny full intelligence briefings to Jeremy Corbyn.
In an interview with the Evening Standard, Hilary Benn said David Cameron must show “respect” to the new Labour leader, despite hints from Tories that the Left-winger is not fully trusted because of his links with Hamas, IRA supporters and other controversial groups.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html
@DPJHodges: Ukip conference. A three day PPB for the Britain In Europe campaign.
Realistically each case is unique.
That 30% regard this government as being viciously right wing.
Corbyn seems singularly unprepared in any traditional sense for LoTo, let alone PM, which is why it will be fascinating to see how much of the role he can adapt, how much he has to adapt to or break, and if he discovers a talent for the role he perhaps never thought himself that he had.
Corbyn would be lucky to speak for 25%.
Depending on the result tomorrow I might also get to mock the Welsh
If they really thought that the current government is so awful, surely they'd be trying to get an electable Labour Party?
But I take the main point. Even so, if UKIP - if they're the only Out party - can't gain traction from an In/Out referendum, they have no future as a party. The European elections last year show what should be possible.
Sorry for any confusion.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/34358532/petition-started-against-paloma-faiths-rugby-world-cup-song-on-itv
Not a patch on the Hayley Westenra version, but there we are.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdBR4J8nxAo
Traitors never prosper (Apart from the ones who do prosper)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Trebia
To me it seems to underplay the promotional machine provided to the Corbyn campaign - limiting it to Unite and TSSA providing London headquarters.
There was no mention, for example, of the Clare Solomon claims that groups with which she is linked organised most of his meetings.
The account of the advantages gained by the the IT skills of essentially one man (Mr Cat Smith) was fascinating.
So the referendum defeat worked very well indeed - for the Conservatives, who pretended that they wee the continuation of the Coalition, and won themselves a majority.