Thanks Robert. A lot of good stuff in that document. The main problem is that demographics and their impact are completely ignored. On that score alone the outcome that the paper describes is impossible in my humble opinion. The points on government debt are arguable but investors are not rational beings. Its just time, well 9 days away, for the start of the sovereign debt crisis based on martin armstrong and his economic confidence model. What seems affordable now at rock bottom interest rates now rapidly changes once expectations of rising rates are baked into the cake.
I have a whole different paper on demographics I'm working on, which I'll share with you at some other point.
Can we have a gentleman's wage on the coming sovereign debt crisis? I think it'll affect commodity exporters, like Venezuela, Ecaudor, Brazil, Russia, Chile, Argentina, Nigeria, etc. You think it'll hammer the developed countries.
But there is a feedback loop in place. Falling commodity prices directly add to developed countries GDP (lower prices means higher net exports), increasing growth rates, and making debt service ratios less onerous.
"Falling commodity prices directly add to developed countries GDP (lower prices means higher net exports)"
That's incorrect because the falling commodity prices also reduce final consumption in the GDP equation by the same amount.
I saw earlier some debates on electric cars vs fuel cell
The fact is that fuel cell cars *are* electric cars. Just with a interesting type of primary battery.
In fact, in order to improve efficiency (re-generative braking), smooth the start up and shutdown of the fuel cells (which hate to be turned on and off), you will end up with a substantial battery in fuel cell cars - to act as an energy buffer.
Li-ion batteries are improving in terms of cost/performance by 6-8% per year, compound
The reason that both electric and fuel cell cars are possible is that the drive train is fundamentally much more efficient - you can get 90% of the energy out of a battery to the wheels, while getting 35% of the energy in petrol to the wheels is quite an achievement. Quite simply - neither needs to get the energy density of petrol to deliver the same performance.
not long ago - 250 miles of usable range, 30 minutes charging time off a Supercharger and performance that is terrifying. 3.5 seconds to 60....
OK energy from the battery to the wheels is quite efficient, but what about generation efficiency at the power station, transmission losses,charging losses etc. It is possible to argue both ways about the overall efficiency, they are about equal,but emissions are relocated. The real reason to buy EV is because there is no excise duty on the electricity used.
As I say you can argue it both ways,choose a coal fired station, and it is worse than burning fossil fuel direct in your car, choose wind power and it is better, my point was that that the tax regime, ie no excise duty on electricity on EV distorts the view on efficiency. I do actually drive an EV, only because it is cheaper to run partially to the tax regime, but also wow it is so much better in terms of torque,noise, and being automatic.
Thanks Robert. A lot of good stuff in that document. The main problem is that demographics and their impact are completely ignored. On that score alone the outcome that the paper describes is impossible in my humble opinion. The points on government debt are arguable but investors are not rational beings. Its just time, well 9 days away, for the start of the sovereign debt crisis based on martin armstrong and his economic confidence model. What seems affordable now at rock bottom interest rates now rapidly changes once expectations of rising rates are baked into the cake.
I have a whole different paper on demographics I'm working on, which I'll share with you at some other point.
Can we have a gentleman's wage on the coming sovereign debt crisis? I think it'll affect commodity exporters, like Venezuela, Ecaudor, Brazil, Russia, Chile, Argentina, Nigeria, etc. You think it'll hammer the developed countries.
But there is a feedback loop in place. Falling commodity prices directly add to developed countries GDP (lower prices means higher net exports), increasing growth rates, and making debt service ratios less onerous.
"Falling commodity prices directly add to developed countries GDP (lower prices means higher net exports)"
That's incorrect because the falling commodity prices also reduce final consumption in the GDP equation by the same amount.
Only if the money is saved and not spent.
And every time that oil prices have fallen by 50% or more, it has heralded periods of higher growth (1982-1983, 1985-1986, 1992-1993, 1997-1998, and 2001-2002).
In fact, you can look at the last five decades as falling into periods when commodity exporters were in the ascendent (the 1970s, the 2000-2013 period) and the opposite (the 1960s, the 1980s and 1990s, and now). During the former periods, you saw rapid growth in LatAm, the Middle East, Canada, Australia. And during the former periods, you saw rapid growth in commodity importing countries.
Think of it another way: when commodity prices are high, a proportion of economic output from importers must be sent to commodity exporters.
I have a whole different paper on demographics I'm working on, which I'll share with you at some other point.
Can we have a gentleman's wage on the coming sovereign debt crisis? I think it'll affect commodity exporters, like Venezuela, Ecaudor, Brazil, Russia, Chile, Argentina, Nigeria, etc. You think it'll hammer the developed countries.
But there is a feedback loop in place. Falling commodity prices directly add to developed countries GDP (lower prices means higher net exports), increasing growth rates, and making debt service ratios less onerous.
"Falling commodity prices directly add to developed countries GDP (lower prices means higher net exports)"
That's incorrect because the falling commodity prices also reduce final consumption in the GDP equation by the same amount.
Only if the money is saved and not spent.
And every time that oil prices have fallen by 50% or more, it has heralded periods of higher growth (1982-1983, 1985-1986, 1992-1993, 1997-1998, and 2001-2002).
In fact, you can look at the last five decades as falling into periods when commodity exporters were in the ascendent (the 1970s, the 2000-2013 period) and the opposite (the 1960s, the 1980s and 1990s, and now). During the former periods, you saw rapid growth in LatAm, the Middle East, Canada, Australia. And during the former periods, you saw rapid growth in commodity importing countries.
Think of it another way: when commodity prices are high, a proportion of economic output from importers must be sent to commodity exporters.
So both you and Hunchman are convinced that we are about to have a sovereign debt crisis, you simply disagree about which set of countries are going to get hit hardest?
Interesting.
Whilst I generally agree with you that lower commodity prices help developed countries the EZ is in no state to handle a crisis. After today even Germany is not looking that clever (and they have rather more exposure than most to capital goods exports to the commodity producing countries too).
Osborne may have to start earning his corn again. He has had it rather too easy of late.
So the Limp Debs ..with their 8 MPs.. would do what exactly..
They can combine with labour in the House of Lords to amend, alter or prevent government legislation. The Salisbury convention allows government legislation laid out in their manifesto to be approved without the same opposition. The Lib Dems being undemocratic - what a waste of space they are
After GE2005 when LAB won a majority with 35.2% of national vote the LDs in the Lords said they wouldn't follow Salisbury. The precedent has been set.
The Tories won 36.9% of the national vote on May 7th.
Thanks Robert. A lot of good stuff in that document. The main problem is that demographics and their impact are completely ignored. On that score alone the outcome that the paper describes is impossible in my humble opinion. The points on government debt are arguable but investors are not rational beings. Its just time, well 9 days away, for the start of the sovereign debt crisis based on martin armstrong and his economic confidence model. What seems affordable now at rock bottom interest rates now rapidly changes once expectations of rising rates are baked into the cake.
I have a whole different paper on demographics I'm working on, which I'll share with you at some other point.
Can we have a gentleman's wage on the coming sovereign debt crisis? I think it'll affect commodity exporters, like Venezuela, Ecaudor, Brazil, Russia, Chile, Argentina, Nigeria, etc. You think it'll hammer the developed countries.
But there is a feedback loop in place. Falling commodity prices directly add to developed countries GDP (lower prices means higher net exports), increasing growth rates, and making debt service ratios less onerous.
It's already impacting on emerging markets. The $9trn extended in debt to them since 2008 is going to have to be repaid in stronger USD and I expect a lot to be defaulted on in one way or another. The point about commodity prices and developed economies is rather putting the cart before the horse. The weakness in commodity prices reflects the weakness of the developed world's economies and much misplaced capital investment off the peak in commodities over the past 10 years. I have a friend who has invested in oil related stocks who just cannot get her head around the fact that oil won't be going anywhere near the $147 June 2008 high anytime soon. Infact the long term support of $12 or $13 requires testing first.
As for the sovereign debt crisis it will I think begin with Greece defaulting first, then role through the rest of the eurozone periphery with emerging market countries defaulting really on. I then see it rippling out to the wider eurozone and ourselves then Japan. The US will definitely be the last one standing in late 2017 if the cycles I have are correct. Every global economic collapse in history whether you look at Rome, the Chinese dynasties, Byzantine, Venice etc starts from the outside and works its way to the core. I'm not betting on this one being any different. Which is why I'm advocating the US as the best place for capital to park for now in their stockmarket.
The best books are often those where it takes quite a while to get into them and it can take a while to reach the halfway mark, but then the second half is read in one sitting. That was what happened with The Ice Twins with me.
Pleasing to see Jeb Bush going backwards despite the GOP establishment and that odious man Boehner backing him. Well they're losing control and thank goodness too. Enjoyed listening to a trump speech where he laid into Obama on climate change. That was great to see!
Pleasing to see Jeb Bush going backwards despite the GOP establishment and that odious man Boehner backing him. Well they're losing control and thank goodness too. Enjoyed listening to a trump speech where he laid into Obama on climate change. That was great to see!
Trump remains the man to beat at the moment
Trump will never be POTUS, thank goodness.
Well stranger things have happened, but he is still motoring towards the nomination
As for the sovereign debt crisis it will I think begin with Greece defaulting first, then role through the rest of the eurozone periphery with emerging market countries defaulting really on. I then see it rippling out to the wider eurozone and ourselves then Japan. The US will definitely be the last one standing in late 2017 if the cycles I have are correct. Every global economic collapse in history whether you look at Rome, the Chinese dynasties, Byzantine, Venice etc starts from the outside and works its way to the core. I'm not betting on this one being any different. Which is why I'm advocating the US as the best place for capital to park for now in their stockmarket.
Do you have a Greek debt service schedule? If my memory serves, it is almost impossible for them to default until April 2016 (in that it's just local debt roll-overs and modest interest payments until then). In all likelihood, we'll see the interest holiday on EFSF debt (what, two thirds of the total?) implemented by mid next year, which makes a near-term Greek default impossible without a deliberate political decision to do so. And I just don't see Tsipras going down that route.
It's also worth remembering that the big current account countries from 2012, 2013 and even 2014 - which are mostly resource exporters - will be running current account deficits. And will therefore need to liquidate US dollar assets to pay their bills. I suspect this will weigh somewhat on the dollar.
I have a whole different paper on demographics I'm working on, which I'll share with you at some other point.
Can we have a gentleman's wage on the coming sovereign debt crisis? I think it'll affect commodity exporters, like Venezuela, Ecaudor, Brazil, Russia, Chile, Argentina, Nigeria, etc. You think it'll hammer the developed countries.
But there is a feedback loop in place. Falling commodity prices directly add to developed countries GDP (lower prices means higher net exports), increasing growth rates, and making debt service ratios less onerous.
"Falling commodity prices directly add to developed countries GDP (lower prices means higher net exports)"
That's incorrect because the falling commodity prices also reduce final consumption in the GDP equation by the same amount.
Only if the money is saved and not spent.
And every time that oil prices have fallen by 50% or more, it has heralded periods of higher growth (1982-1983, 1985-1986, 1992-1993, 1997-1998, and 2001-2002).
In fact, you can look at the last five decades as falling into periods when commodity exporters were in the ascendent (the 1970s, the 2000-2013 period) and the opposite (the 1960s, the 1980s and 1990s, and now). During the former periods, you saw rapid growth in LatAm, the Middle East, Canada, Australia. And during the former periods, you saw rapid growth in commodity importing countries.
Think of it another way: when commodity prices are high, a proportion of economic output from importers must be sent to commodity exporters.
So both you and Hunchman are convinced that we are about to have a sovereign debt crisis, you simply disagree about which set of countries are going to get hit hardest?
Interesting.
Whilst I generally agree with you that lower commodity prices help developed countries the EZ is in no state to handle a crisis. After today even Germany is not looking that clever (and they have rather more exposure than most to capital goods exports to the commodity producing countries too).
Osborne may have to start earning his corn again. He has had it rather too easy of late.
During the last serious commodity downcycle (aka, the 1980s), pretty much every single commodity exporting country (except Chile) defaulted on its debts, most multiple times.
Re the Eurozone: it's worth noting that M1 growth has gone through the roof, and that is the best predictor of near term economic momentum out there. See: http://www.thstailwinds.com/eurozone-recovery/
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
Colour me slightly surprised that the University of Central Lancs has a medicine course...
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
What Govt restrictions? And how can it have a degree course if it has no students?
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
What Govt restrictions? And how can it have a degree course if it has no students?
So the Limp Debs ..with their 8 MPs.. would do what exactly..
They can combine with labour in the House of Lords to amend, alter or prevent government legislation. The Salisbury convention allows government legislation laid out in their manifesto to be approved without the same opposition. The Lib Dems being undemocratic - what a waste of space they are
After GE2005 when LAB won a majority with 35.2% of national vote the LDs in the Lords said they wouldn't follow Salisbury. The precedent has been set.
The Tories won 36.9% of the national vote on May 7th.
So more.
If Labour opt to destroy Salisbury then they'll be shooting themselves in the foot too when they get back in power next - and for what? Parliament Act can enforce Salisbury so it's only a delaying tactic.
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
What Govt restrictions? And how can it have a degree course if it has no students?
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
Curious, I've been getting ads for the University of Central Lancashire on gaming website all week.
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
Colour me slightly surprised that the University of Central Lancs has a medicine course...
I was too. I knew it had started to offer pharmacy, where we have more than enough graduates, but not medicine. Worringly, at the last count only 68% of it's pharmacy graduates made it through the registration exam and are able to actually practice.
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
What Govt restrictions?
There's a cap on uni places for medicine as there's a cap on fees and a medicine degree costs a lot more than the fees. So the NHS calculates how many students it needs and funds the difference and allocates those numbers to various universities accordingly.
UCLAN's course isn't funded as it isn't part of the numbers the NHS has said it wants - so the uni is instead getting non-EU students as they're self-funding.
Wasn’t there someone in either myth or history, association with whom was generally ruinous? Not Cassandra, since Oakeshott appears to prophesy success!
Incidentally, I think the question about “others” is a good one. , Every Freemason, for example, has followed a prescribed path, and all these ‘secret societies” don’t change their initiation processes.
Neither of those points are true. Freemasonry initiations vary considerably between Grand Lodges and Constitutions. And as to changes - one society I joined had the initiation ceremony created anew each time by the previous initiate. Which meant that each entrant ended up doing something more outrageous than the previous one. After what I endured 15 years ago and what I invented for the following bloke the mind boggles as to what they must do these days.
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
What Govt restrictions? And how can it have a degree course if it has no students?
Wasn’t there someone in either myth or history, association with whom was generally ruinous? Not Cassandra, since Oakeshott appears to prophesy success!
Incidentally, I think the question about “others” is a good one. , Every Freemason, for example, has followed a prescribed path, and all these ‘secret societies” don’t change their initiation processes.
Neither of those points are true. Freemasonry initiations vary considerably between Grand Lodges and Constitutions. And as to changes - one society I joined had the initiation ceremony created anew each time by the previous initiate. Which meant that each entrant ended up doing something more outrageous than the previous one. After what I endured 15 years ago and what I invented for the following bloke the mind boggles as to what they must do these days.
I believe they've swapped the dead pig for a live MP.
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
What Govt restrictions? And how can it have a degree course if it has no students?
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
What Govt restrictions? And how can it have a degree course if it has no students?
I don't generally read much fiction but I will make an exception for you!!
Wait: I thought you worked for an investment bank?
Very funny! OK - I will caveat (lawyers, eh!). I don't read it in my spare time. Don't have much spare time for one thing.
(Don't think I've ever said where I work.....)
I think you, Charles and MaxPB have all admitted to working for investment banks in the past.
Well now, I have worked in lots of places including government but have tried to be studiedly vague about exactly where I am now, for obvious reasons. The City is quite detailed enough.
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
What Govt restrictions? And how can it have a degree course if it has no students?
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
What Govt restrictions?
There's a cap on uni places for medicine as there's a cap on fees and a medicine degree costs a lot more than the fees. So the NHS calculates how many students it needs and funds the difference and allocates those numbers to various universities accordingly.
UCLAN's course isn't funded as it isn't part of the numbers the NHS has said it wants - so the uni is instead getting non-EU students as they're self-funding.
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
What Govt restrictions? And how can it have a degree course if it has no students?
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
What Govt restrictions?
There's a cap on uni places for medicine as there's a cap on fees and a medicine degree costs a lot more than the fees. So the NHS calculates how many students it needs and funds the difference and allocates those numbers to various universities accordingly.
UCLAN's course isn't funded as it isn't part of the numbers the NHS has said it wants - so the uni is instead getting non-EU students as they're self-funding.
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
What Govt restrictions?
There's a cap on uni places for medicine as there's a cap on fees and a medicine degree costs a lot more than the fees. So the NHS calculates how many students it needs and funds the difference and allocates those numbers to various universities accordingly.
UCLAN's course isn't funded as it isn't part of the numbers the NHS has said it wants - so the uni is instead getting non-EU students as they're self-funding.
There is a private medical school already in the UK, and about 60% of students are from the UK:
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
What Govt restrictions? And how can it have a degree course if it has no students?
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
What Govt restrictions? And how can it have a degree course if it has no students?
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
What Govt restrictions? And how can it have a degree course if it has no students?
I watched Alex Gibney's Scientology documentary last night 'Going Clear' and it is excellent. Thoroughly enjoyable viewing.
It's available free On Demand.
It is so intriguing to attempt to discover why otherwise intelligent, smart and successful people choose to believe - zealously too - in such obvious hocus pocus.
I watched Alex Gibney's Scientology documentary last night 'Going Clear' and it is excellent. Thoroughly enjoyable viewing.
It's available free On Demand.
It is so intriguing to attempt to discover why otherwise intelligent, smart and successful people choose to believe - zealously too - in such obvious hocus pocus.
Yes; it's outstanding. The second best documentary this year after The Jinx.
I believe we are approaching resignation territory, these allegations that Cameron conspired against his OWN party simply to try to get rid of Boris + KGB drug connection are more serious that even the dead pig sex:
Well this story is going to tick a few boxes for some PBers
School questioned Muslim pupil about Isis after discussion on eco-activism
Parents of 14-year-old at north London’s Central Foundation school take legal action after he was left ‘scared and nervous’ by experience
A Muslim schoolboy was questioned about Islamic State after a classroom discussion about environmental activism, the Guardian has learned.
The parents of the 14-year-old are taking legal action after the boy said he was left “scared and nervous” by his experience with school officials in north London, and was left reluctant to join in class discussions for fear of being suspected of extremism.
So 1) Drugs 2) He knows he's posh 3) He doesn't like Boris 4) He doesn't like Boris
Not sure I could believe 4 unless the hate is really deep - in 2008 and 2012 Tory wins in London were surely very good signs for the party and thus Cameron, so even if that meant a Boris win it helped him.
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
What Govt restrictions? And how can it have a degree course if it has no students?
I don't generally read much fiction but I will make an exception for you!!
Wait: I thought you worked for an investment bank?
Very funny! OK - I will caveat (lawyers, eh!). I don't read it in my spare time. Don't have much spare time for one thing.
(Don't think I've ever said where I work.....)
I think you, Charles and MaxPB have all admitted to working for investment banks in the past.
pb Tories working for investment banks? I assumed they were all cottage entrepreneurs.
I'm fairly sure Cyclefree didn't vote Conservative, and I don't think either MaxPB or Charles are typical "pb Tories"
I didn't necessarily mean it in the derogatory timothy sense, but they are pb people who I think identify as Tory voters nonetheless.
No I bloody well don't. I'm a bit homeless as far as political parties are concerned, though don't really identify with politicians anyway as, IMO and based on my knowledge of politics students, they're all more or less weird (anyone wanting to be a politician, certainly from a young age, is the last person who should be entrusted with power) but I did have Maajid Nawaz as a candidate in my constituency, the best candidate on offer, but 2015 was not the year to be standing as a Lib Dem sadly.
So 1) Drugs 2) He knows he's posh 3) He doesn't like Boris 4) He doesn't like Boris
Not sure I could believe 4 unless the hate is really deep - in 2008 and 2012 Tory wins in London were surely very good signs for the party and thus Cameron, so even if that meant a Boris win it helped him.
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
What Govt restrictions? And how can it have a degree course if it has no students?
Thanks Robert. A lot of good stuff in that document. The main problem is that demographics and their impact are completely ignored. On that score alone the outcome that the paper describes is impossible in my humble opinion. The points on government debt are arguable but investors are not rational beings. Its just time, well 9 days away, for the start of the sovereign debt crisis based on martin armstrong and his economic confidence model. What seems affordable now at rock bottom interest rates now rapidly changes once expectations of rising rates are baked into the cake.
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
What Govt restrictions? And how can it have a degree course if it has no students?
Thanks Robert. A lot of good stuff in that document. The main problem is that demographics and their impact are completely ignored. On that score alone the outcome that the paper describes is impossible in my humble opinion. The points on government debt are arguable but investors are not rational beings. Its just time, well 9 days away, for the start of the sovereign debt crisis based on martin armstrong and his economic confidence model. What seems affordable now at rock bottom interest rates now rapidly changes once expectations of rising rates are baked into the cake.
I have a whole different paper on demographics I'm working on, which I'll share with you at some other point.
Can we have a gentleman's wage on the coming sovereign debt crisis? I think it'll affect commodity exporters, like Venezuela, Ecaudor, Brazil, Russia, Chile, Argentina, Nigeria, etc. You think it'll hammer the developed countries.
But there is a feedback loop in place. Falling commodity prices directly add to developed countries GDP (lower prices means higher net exports), increasing growth rates, and making debt service ratios less onerous.
"Falling commodity prices directly add to developed countries GDP (lower prices means higher net exports)"
That's incorrect because the falling commodity prices also reduce final consumption in the GDP equation by the same amount.
Only if the money is saved and not spent.
And every time that oil prices have fallen by 50% or more, it has heralded periods of higher growth (1982-1983, 1985-1986, 1992-1993, 1997-1998, and 2001-2002).
In fact, you can look at the last five decades as falling into periods when commodity exporters were in the ascendent (the 1970s, the 2000-2013 period) and the opposite (the 1960s, the 1980s and 1990s, and now). During the former periods, you saw rapid growth in LatAm, the Middle East, Canada, Australia. And during the former periods, you saw rapid growth in commodity importing countries.
Think of it another way: when commodity prices are high, a proportion of economic output from importers must be sent to commodity exporters.
You were talking about the direct effect, but now you're adding in the indirect effect of the consumers spending the money they do not spend on commodities on other stuff. The direct effect is completely neutral. The indirect effect of consumers spending money they are now not paying for oil depends on whether they buy domestically made stuff or imports.
Quite right. You can't force countries to take people they don't want. Only trouble will follow if you do that. The Germans seem - once again - to have learnt all the wrong lessons from history.
So I guess the reason measures like these are rarely voted upon is because if it comes down to a vote, nations may not even bother to abide by the vote, in which case what was the point.
Quite right. You can't force countries to take people they don't want. Only trouble will follow if you do that. The Germans seem - once again - to have learnt all the wrong lessons from history.
Others will follow. Once an Emperors feudal lords refuse to accept his decision then he is reduced to Emperor in name only, same goes for Merkel.
I believe we are approaching resignation territory, these allegations that Cameron conspired against his OWN party simply to try to get rid of Boris + KGB drug connection are more serious that even the dead pig sex:
I wonder if the source for him conspiring against his own party are people from the recently restrained anti-cameroon faction which had wished for his failure - after all, there are probably plenty of people in the party who dislike Cameron enough to have wanted the party to lose in May I'd guess, they probably had malcontents lined up to condemn him on TV on election night.
Quite right. You can't force countries to take people they don't want. Only trouble will follow if you do that. The Germans seem - once again - to have learnt all the wrong lessons from history.
More importantly, how can Slovakia keep people that it does not want and who want to be elsewhere?. It's a a non-starter.
Pleasing to see Jeb Bush going backwards despite the GOP establishment and that odious man Boehner backing him. Well they're losing control and thank goodness too. Enjoyed listening to a trump speech where he laid into Obama on climate change. That was great to see!
Trump remains the man to beat at the moment
Trump will never be POTUS, thank goodness.
Sanders is causing more interesting potential to win not only the Democratic vote, but possibly the Presidential one
You were talking about the direct effect, but now you're adding in the indirect effect of the consumers spending the money they do not spend on commodities on other stuff. The direct effect is completely neutral. The indirect effect of consumers spending money they are now not paying for oil depends on whether they buy domestically made stuff or imports.
I am assuming the savings rate remains constant! I think that is an entirely reasonable assumption.
I believe we are approaching resignation territory, these allegations that Cameron conspired against his OWN party simply to try to get rid of Boris + KGB drug connection are more serious that even the dead pig sex:
I wonder if the source for him conspiring against his own party are people from the recently restrained anti-cameroon faction which had wished for his failure - after all, there are probably plenty of people in the party who dislike Cameron enough to have wanted the party to lose in May I'd guess, they probably had malcontents lined up to condemn him on TV on election night.
I was speaking to a head of politics/history at a Uni today.
He reckons Cameron will join Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair as the most hated PMs for the same reasons they did.
They never lost a general election and that galls their opponents.
Quick question that someone might be able to answer. When Bill Clinton was President, Hillary was First Lady. If Hillary becomes President - Bill becomes - what? First Husband? First Lord???
It may also be complicated by the fact that he was himself also a President. I have in mind that there is a convention that even ex-Presidents are still referred to as "Mr President". If so, that would be seriously weird - Mr President and Madam President.....
I think I may be a snob. Seeing it reported as him telling 'Tory pals' just makes me want to shout. Something about that kind of casual language just seems faintly wrong when discussing the news, even if it's news about deceased porcine molestation.
Of note, the word 'pig' is found 3 times on the front page there
So I guess the reason measures like these are rarely voted upon is because if it comes down to a vote, nations may not even bother to abide by the vote, in which case what was the point.
Right now the UK is the only mug that actually follows EU rules. We know France and Italy have long flouted laws. Greece regularly lied about its finances to get round Eurozone criteria. Germany and France both breached deficit limits. The Eurozone broke the no bailout clause. Germany, Austria and Hungary have abandoned Schengen requirements. Central Europe will now not enact the migrant placements. We need to just do what we want where the EU is not working for us. Ask forgiveness, not permission.
I believe we are approaching resignation territory, these allegations that Cameron conspired against his OWN party simply to try to get rid of Boris + KGB drug connection are more serious that even the dead pig sex:
Given the KGB disappeared 25 years ago and the main allegation of an ex KGB spy is that Cameron asked them to get him drugs a quarter of a century ago that is certainly a non starter as well as sounding farcical, as is the obvious statement he is very posh. The only real impact of the story maybe to piss off Boris and make him even more determined to succeed Dave
I believe we are approaching resignation territory, these allegations that Cameron conspired against his OWN party simply to try to get rid of Boris + KGB drug connection are more serious that even the dead pig sex:
I wonder if the source for him conspiring against his own party are people from the recently restrained anti-cameroon faction which had wished for his failure - after all, there are probably plenty of people in the party who dislike Cameron enough to have wanted the party to lose in May I'd guess, they probably had malcontents lined up to condemn him on TV on election night.
People like Ashcroft in the anti-Cameron faction who were wanting Dave not to win in May? Who are now claiming that others are undermining Tory candidates. It takes some brass neck to do that!
Regarding the 'big move to private diesel cars', in the USA there is no such thing. Diesel is seen as smelly and expensive. Diesel fuel here is much more expensive than gasoline.
When I get my annual emissions inspection done it is all through an OBD2 plugin, there is no engine exhaust analysis. Other than the OBD2 all they do is pressure test the fuel filler cap.
I believe we are approaching resignation territory, these allegations that Cameron conspired against his OWN party simply to try to get rid of Boris + KGB drug connection are more serious that even the dead pig sex:
I wonder if the source for him conspiring against his own party are people from the recently restrained anti-cameroon faction which had wished for his failure - after all, there are probably plenty of people in the party who dislike Cameron enough to have wanted the party to lose in May I'd guess, they probably had malcontents lined up to condemn him on TV on election night.
If you are party leader for more than 10 years the ones down the line wanting and waiting for you to go to get promoted get more numerous and more restless. That's what got Thatcher and Blair in the end, they overstayed their welcome. And that's why in the USA the President has term limits of 8 years max.
Totally O/t, but the BBC is reporting that, due to Govt restrictions, the University of Central Lancs is admitting NO EU or UK students to it's degree course in medicine.
If we're short of GP's ........
Colour me slightly surprised that the University of Central Lancs has a medicine course...
I was too. I knew it had started to offer pharmacy, where we have more than enough graduates, but not medicine. Worringly, at the last count only 68% of it's pharmacy graduates made it through the registration exam and are able to actually practice.
There are some terrible unis offering pharmacy. One springs to mind where some seriously dodgy practices took place.
Quite right. You can't force countries to take people they don't want. Only trouble will follow if you do that. The Germans seem - once again - to have learnt all the wrong lessons from history.
Others will follow. Once an Emperors feudal lords refuse to accept his decision then he is reduced to Emperor in name only, same goes for Merkel.
Yes, people forget that feudal systems are still two way relationships, that even if there are supposed divine obligations to the head of the pyramid, there are expectations on what are reasonable demands to those below.
The EU relies on consensus, and the problem is that sometimes it is a false consensus, where the biggest agree a position, top up with smaller enthusiastic supporters, and others than sort of join in with varying levels of enthusiasm as it's clear which way things are going and it's time to all pitch in together. Potential problems are when something arrives, perhaps this is it, where significant numbers simply don't play that game anymore.
I think I may be a snob. Seeing it reported as him telling 'Tory pals' just makes me want to shout. Something about that kind of casual language just seems faintly wrong when discussing the news, even if it's news about deceased porcine molestation.
Mr kle4, - you really shouldn’t get so excited, it’s only the Daily Mirror.
... So the NHS calculates how many students it needs ....
If it does the God only knows what it does with the result of the calculation. The number of doctors being trained seems to bear no relationship to the need. As our own Dr Sox points out on a regular basis the number of physicians and surgeons is grossly inadequate and the shortage is getting worse by the year.
Mind you if you increase the population by 300,000 a year then you need 150 extra GPs just to keep the patent.doctor ratio the same and then add on all the extra specialists on top. Given that these additional people are of such economic benefit to the country then presumably there isn't a problem in paying for all the extra numbers, given the increased tax take they generate.
Comments
That's incorrect because the falling commodity prices also reduce final consumption in the GDP equation by the same amount.
I do actually drive an EV, only because it is cheaper to run partially to the tax regime, but also wow it is so much better in terms of torque,noise, and being automatic.
And every time that oil prices have fallen by 50% or more, it has heralded periods of higher growth (1982-1983, 1985-1986, 1992-1993, 1997-1998, and 2001-2002).
In fact, you can look at the last five decades as falling into periods when commodity exporters were in the ascendent (the 1970s, the 2000-2013 period) and the opposite (the 1960s, the 1980s and 1990s, and now). During the former periods, you saw rapid growth in LatAm, the Middle East, Canada, Australia. And during the former periods, you saw rapid growth in commodity importing countries.
Think of it another way: when commodity prices are high, a proportion of economic output from importers must be sent to commodity exporters.
Interesting.
Whilst I generally agree with you that lower commodity prices help developed countries the EZ is in no state to handle a crisis. After today even Germany is not looking that clever (and they have rather more exposure than most to capital goods exports to the commodity producing countries too).
Osborne may have to start earning his corn again. He has had it rather too easy of late.
The Tories won 36.9% of the national vote on May 7th.
As for the sovereign debt crisis it will I think begin with Greece defaulting first, then role through the rest of the eurozone periphery with emerging market countries defaulting really on. I then see it rippling out to the wider eurozone and ourselves then Japan. The US will definitely be the last one standing in late 2017 if the cycles I have are correct. Every global economic collapse in history whether you look at Rome, the Chinese dynasties, Byzantine, Venice etc starts from the outside and works its way to the core. I'm not betting on this one being any different. Which is why I'm advocating the US as the best place for capital to park for now in their stockmarket.
I'm only 2/3 through it - don't seem to get much reading time.
Hope it's worth the effort...
I don't generally read much fiction but I will make an exception for you!!
It's also worth remembering that the big current account countries from 2012, 2013 and even 2014 - which are mostly resource exporters - will be running current account deficits. And will therefore need to liquidate US dollar assets to pay their bills. I suspect this will weigh somewhat on the dollar.
As an aside, you might also enjoy this piece I put out today on "What is the True Level of US Unemployment": http://www.thstailwinds.com/what-is-the-true-level-of-us-unemployment/
Or try a different browser...
And let me shoot the responsible person at work :-)
Re the Eurozone: it's worth noting that M1 growth has gone through the roof, and that is the best predictor of near term economic momentum out there. See: http://www.thstailwinds.com/eurozone-recovery/
If we're short of GP's ........
"Squeal like a piggy" - great timing! :-)
(Don't think I've ever said where I work.....)
If this was a test to stop really stupid people from reading your articles it nearly worked!
If Labour opt to destroy Salisbury then they'll be shooting themselves in the foot too when they get back in power next - and for what? Parliament Act can enforce Salisbury so it's only a delaying tactic.
I was too. I knew it had started to offer pharmacy, where we have more than enough graduates, but not medicine. Worringly, at the last count only 68% of it's pharmacy graduates made it through the registration exam and are able to actually practice.
Gerronwithit
UCLAN's course isn't funded as it isn't part of the numbers the NHS has said it wants - so the uni is instead getting non-EU students as they're self-funding.
“I believe – and campaigned for – Scotland to stay part of a wider Union. And I believe Britain should stay part of a wider Union, too.”
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/09/ruth-davidson-backs-eu-membership-which-should-worry-brexit-supporters-for-two-reasons.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3244924/Ginger-extremist-GUILTY-plot-shoot-Prince-Charles-William-Harry-king-Aryan-people.html
http://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/jan/07/buckingham-university-medical-degree-applications
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34331126
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/646430694051344384
I watched Alex Gibney's Scientology documentary last night 'Going Clear' and it is excellent. Thoroughly enjoyable viewing.
It's available free On Demand.
It is so intriguing to attempt to discover why otherwise intelligent, smart and successful people choose to believe - zealously too - in such obvious hocus pocus.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/646430694051344384/photo/1
School questioned Muslim pupil about Isis after discussion on eco-activism
Parents of 14-year-old at north London’s Central Foundation school take legal action after he was left ‘scared and nervous’ by experience
A Muslim schoolboy was questioned about Islamic State after a classroom discussion about environmental activism, the Guardian has learned.
The parents of the 14-year-old are taking legal action after the boy said he was left “scared and nervous” by his experience with school officials in north London, and was left reluctant to join in class discussions for fear of being suspected of extremism.
http://bit.ly/1j7bn7c
Not sure I could believe 4 unless the hate is really deep - in 2008 and 2012 Tory wins in London were surely very good signs for the party and thus Cameron, so even if that meant a Boris win it helped him.
I was born with two silver feet in my mouth
"I want another cottaging holiday next year"
Good lord! Why didn't you mention this before?
Once an Emperors feudal lords refuse to accept his decision then he is reduced to Emperor in name only, same goes for Merkel.
Cam: I've been stabbed in back by a little xxxxx
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPiXbAMWsAA99k4.jpg
He reckons Cameron will join Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair as the most hated PMs for the same reasons they did.
They never lost a general election and that galls their opponents.
It may also be complicated by the fact that he was himself also a President. I have in mind that there is a convention that even ex-Presidents are still referred to as "Mr President". If so, that would be seriously weird - Mr President and Madam President.....
Of note, the word 'pig' is found 3 times on the front page there
New Thread New Thread
When I get my annual emissions inspection done it is all through an OBD2 plugin, there is no engine exhaust analysis. Other than the OBD2 all they do is pressure test the fuel filler cap.
That's what got Thatcher and Blair in the end, they overstayed their welcome.
And that's why in the USA the President has term limits of 8 years max.
The EU relies on consensus, and the problem is that sometimes it is a false consensus, where the biggest agree a position, top up with smaller enthusiastic supporters, and others than sort of join in with varying levels of enthusiasm as it's clear which way things are going and it's time to all pitch in together. Potential problems are when something arrives, perhaps this is it, where significant numbers simply don't play that game anymore.
Mind you if you increase the population by 300,000 a year then you need 150 extra GPs just to keep the patent.doctor ratio the same and then add on all the extra specialists on top. Given that these additional people are of such economic benefit to the country then presumably there isn't a problem in paying for all the extra numbers, given the increased tax take they generate.
https://matter2energy.wordpress.com/2015/06/13/biofuel-vs-pv-stop-drinkin-the-ethanol/