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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A new day has dawned for Labour as Corbyn wins on the first

SystemSystem Posts: 12,220
edited September 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A new day has dawned for Labour as Corbyn wins on the first ballot

All those Burnham supporters that lent Corbyn some nominations to make it on to the ballot paper to see a broader debate will be feeling a bit mournful about their decision. It confirmed Andy Burnham’s transformation during the campaign from Westminster village insider to Westminster village idiot.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,389
    edited September 2015
    RIP Labour

    1900-2015
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    JC is the name, the way and the light.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    3rd - like Cooper
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Corbyn saying the candidates could form an Abba tribute band - works for me.

    He really is much more fired up than he has been for most of the campaign, I'm already liking him more.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    "Well done to those who backed Corbyn at 100/1. Fancy re-investing your winnings? " - Shadsy.

    Nope!
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    First front bench resignation.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,977
    Crackers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,979
    Think I was on 57 point something, so quite pleased with that prediction.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    I would be interesting in looking at the odds on Corbyn lasting to GE2020 now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,418
    Looks a great result for the 5-2 I have on Cornyn leader in 2020. Emphatic
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Resignations on the way?

    https://twitter.com/jreedmp/status/642649854624309248
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,517
    kle4 said:

    Corbyn saying the candidates could form an Abba tribute band - works for me.

    He really is much more fired up than he has been for most of the campaign, I'm already liking him more.

    Nice subtle dig at Kendall as well, he has a sense of humour. Frothers will not be quite so jovial in future.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    ..now off for a sunbathe..
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Corbyn got 49.6% of members, 83.8% of supporters, 57.6% of affiliates.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Corbyn praising Kendall for standing up for what she believes in. I wonder if people who say such things would praise a Tory who stands up for what they believe in (and vice-versa)
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Giving a good speech. Maybe he won't be as bad as everyone thinks?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Do we get to see how the members voted vs the entryists and union members?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    Pulpstar said:

    Looks a great result for the 5-2 I have on Cornyn leader in 2020. Emphatic

    What are the current odds?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2015
    Copeland MP Jamie Reed resigns from the front bench. His constituency includes Sellafield.

    twitter.com/jreedmp/status/642649854624309248
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    FPT when should Osborne consider unpopular changes like cutting the 45% rate? I'd suggest he gets on with it. Give Labour a poll boost now, when it doesn't matter (and while it makes JC even more unassailable within Lab) then let the next four years drag Lab back down. Surely that has to be the Tory thinking, rather than saving the unpopular stuff for later?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,389
    CopperSulphate said:

    Giving a good speech. Maybe he won't be as bad as everyone thinks?

    He'll be worse...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    MaxPB said:

    Do we get to see how the members voted vs the entryists and union members?

    They said it would be on the party website after the announcement.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    SeanT said:

    He's got plenty of passion and conviction. This is not a man who will quietly hand over the job after 18 months. He's seen the light and it shines out of his own behind. He has a huge mandate. Jeremy Corbyn will lead Labour into the next General Election.

    Hahahahahaha.

    Yep. And with that mandate, he's safe.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Corbyn will be a goner once Labour are destroyed in the May elections next year.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    CopperSulphate said:

    Giving a good speech. Maybe he won't be as bad as everyone thinks?

    It's not his communication abilities that are in question.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Oh dear, the party of diversity has just rejected Tessa Jowell, Stella Creasy, Caroline Flint, Liz Kendall and Yvette Cooper as not fit to run a political party.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    AndyJS said:

    Copeland MP Jamie Reed resigns from the front bench. His constituency includes Sellafield.

    twitter.com/jreedmp/status/642649854624309248

    Labour "owes more to Methodism than Marxism"

    Ouch.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,171
    Atwaldamus form absolutely franked.

    https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/642651449659420672
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,986
    @SophyRidgeSky: Gillian Duffy has just texted me (seriously): "Vey sad will not vote Lab again" #labourleadership
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    TheWhiteRabbit Wins:

    http://show.nojam.com/a2sY/search.php?b=0&j=4&s_Name=&s_Wnnr=0&o_lcl=data_1000_Name_1010

    95% of PB'ers underestimated corbyn's share, just 5% overestimated.
  • Kevin_McCandlessKevin_McCandless Posts: 392
    CopperSulphate said:

    Giving a good speech. Maybe he won't be as bad as everyone thinks?

    He is a very good speaker. If nothing else, all those years in the wilderness, giving speech after speech to five or ten people at a time, has served him well.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    CopperSulphate said:

    Giving a good speech. Maybe he won't be as bad as everyone thinks?

    Good enough, at the least, to get a honeymoon period of some duration.

    It should not be forgotten that many commentators who have predicted he'd be a disaster nevertheless thought he might get a lead in the polls at some point, so if that happens, people should not take that as evidence such people were hopelessly wrong.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    It ain;t the passion....


    Its the policies.


    Immigration. Defence. The economy.


    You can shout them as loud as you like. But people won;t vote for them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,986
    Top trolling by Mike

    @MSmithsonPB: You can see why LAB has needed all women shortlists for parliamentary candidates
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    edited September 2015
    CopperSulphate said:

    Giving a good speech. Maybe he won't be as bad as everyone thinks?

    Delivery is good, and he's even trying to get a joke or two in.

    The content is awful though: "the media abuse us", giving shout outs to everyone trade union in the house (including the bakers union - WTF?) and he's going to a demo on refugees this afternoon.

    Hmm.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    He's a better speaker than Gordon or Ed.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    CopperSulphate said:

    Giving a good speech. Maybe he won't be as bad as everyone thinks?

    Doesn't change either the policy or the associations questions. Foot could give a speech too.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    He gets so angry he struggles to get his words out. And he doesn't like it up 'im.
  • PlatoSaysPlatoSays Posts: 46
    edited September 2015
    His delightfully shouty placard waving manner is just what we need in LotO :smiley:
    GIN1138 said:

    CopperSulphate said:

    Giving a good speech. Maybe he won't be as bad as everyone thinks?

    He'll be worse...
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Jamie Reed Copeland mp puts the first brick through the window!
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Corbyn will be a goner once Labour are destroyed in the May elections next year.

    The loss of the mayoral election, or alternatively the loss of the Tooting by-election will also be big pressure points. But as has been observed with this kind of mandate from the party, he's going to be difficult to shift.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    It's a good speech, it reminds me of an oscar awards acceptance speech.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    edited September 2015
    So, Jeremy's first Commons vote is the Unions bill next week
    Trident renewal bill after that, or a vote on military action against ISIL...?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Pulpstar said:

    Looks a great result for the 5-2 I have on Cornyn leader in 2020. Emphatic

    Agreed.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Thread needs to show the first resignation surely?
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    Tories now 4/11 to win 2020 General Election
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour could have entrenched their now natural advantage with women by selecting Jowell, Creasy and Cooper. Instead they throw it away.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    What are the official results - i.e. exact votes?

  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Praising the management of the NHS in Wales!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    PlatoSays said:

    His delightfully shouty placard waving manner is just what we need in LotO :smiley:

    GIN1138 said:

    CopperSulphate said:

    Giving a good speech. Maybe he won't be as bad as everyone thinks?

    He'll be worse...
    It will, at least, work well in the Commons. I hope he doesn't deputise his duties at PMQs.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,389
    hunchman said:

    Jamie Reed Copeland mp puts the first brick through the window!

    Is he the one who said he would resign as an MP if Jezza became leader?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    "social cleansing". Ugh.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    SeanT said:

    STOP SHOUTING.

    omg.

    Let him, you can win with 60% in a 4 way race only once.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    hahahahahahaha, they're so screwed.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    A thought occurs. Could Corbyn end up being more moderate than everyone thinks? A lot of former Labour cabinet ministers has bonkers views when they were younger such as Jack Straw.

    Corbyn could start to take a more pragmatic view once he has the responsibility of being party leader. Unlikely perhaps but possible,
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313
    He can't bear to say England, it's "the rest of Britain" apparently
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2015
    MarkHopkins said:


    What are the official results - i.e. exact votes?

    Corbyn: 251,417 (59.5%)
    Burnham: 80,262 (19.0%)
    Cooper: 71,928 (17.0%)
    Kendall: 18,857 (4.5%)

    Looks like the figures have been rounded to the nearest 0.5% but in fact they haven't been.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    edited September 2015
    DeClare said:

    Tories now 4/11 to win 2020 General Election

    Still too long.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    Looks a great result for the 5-2 I have on Cornyn leader in 2020. Emphatic

    I still think, even if he's a success, he won't want to be in it for the long haul and will hand over to a younger heir.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    SeanT said:

    Too aggressive now. .

    That is something Cameron is well placed to act opposite - one of his strengths is seeming pretty placid and reasonable most of the time.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,986
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Thread needs to show the first resignation surely?

    Way way ahead of you.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,389
    Any word yet from the Cuckoo in the Corbyn nest?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,517
    dr_spyn said:

    Resignations on the way?

    https://twitter.com/jreedmp/status/642649854624309248

    Never even heard of the nobody
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    ThomasNashe said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Corbyn will be a goner once Labour are destroyed in the May elections next year.

    The loss of the mayoral election, or alternatively the loss of the Tooting by-election will also be big pressure points. But as has been observed with this kind of mandate from the party, he's going to be difficult to shift.
    By the time of May I suspect those who voted for him will have come to their senses - meaning that there is less goodwill towards him, so he'll be easier to shift. They also need to find a candidate to rally around.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    CopperSulphate said:

    A thought occurs. Could Corbyn end up being more moderate than everyone thinks? A lot of former Labour cabinet ministers has bonkers views when they were younger such as Jack Straw.

    Corbyn could start to take a more pragmatic view once he has the responsibility of being party leader. Unlikely perhaps but possible,

    You mean that at 67 he will moderate the views he held as a 65 year old?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Corbyn could start to take a more pragmatic view once he has the responsibility of being party leader. Unlikely perhaps but possible,

    That is stodge's view.

    But his supporters would go up the wall...
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    'Shouty' is the word here.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,956
    edited September 2015
    CopperSulphate said:

    A thought occurs. Could Corbyn end up being more moderate than everyone thinks?

    Are you listening? No.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Thread needs to show the first resignation surely?

    Shadow health secretary resigns.
    Who was he?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,955
    There are a lot of hostages to fortune in this speech. Will come back to haunt him.
  • PlatoSaysPlatoSays Posts: 46
    The potency of the Tory's genie lamp must have required the selling of souls.

    There's no other explanation. I'd love to know what their grid looks like now.
    Sandpit said:

    So, Jeremy's first Commons vote is the Unions bill next week
    Trident renewal bill after that, or a vote on military action against ISIL...?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,986
    Best birthday present ever
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    CopperSulphate said:

    A thought occurs. Could Corbyn end up being more moderate than everyone thinks? A lot of former Labour cabinet ministers has bonkers views when they were younger such as Jack Straw.

    Corbyn could start to take a more pragmatic view once he has the responsibility of being party leader. Unlikely perhaps but possible,

    The very interesting question. He'll try not to change, I think, but if he has to, can he? Angry, passionate politics and dreams going up against complex realities will hit, how will he deal with that when he cannot blame it on whoever is leader?
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    JEO said:

    'Shouty' is the word here.

    It's basically a verbal form of a typical lefty Facebook rant.
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    Pong said:

    TheWhiteRabbit Wins:

    http://show.nojam.com/a2sY/search.php?b=0&j=4&s_Name=&s_Wnnr=0&o_lcl=data_1000_Name_1010

    95% of PB'ers underestimated corbyn's share, just 5% overestimated.

    Good to bear in mind for future prognostications as to Mr Corbyn's electoral prospects
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,977
    Mr. Eagles, happy birthday.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    glw said:

    CopperSulphate said:

    A thought occurs. Could Corbyn end up being more moderate than everyone thinks?

    Are you listening? No.
    Ha yes I wrote that before the shouty lecturing part of his speech.

    He's going to be even more extreme isn't he?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    He's getting a bit JC now - "one world", "one planet"...

    Does he know he's running for UK Prime Minister?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Nutter.

  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    The_Apocalypse said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Corbyn will be a goner once Labour are destroyed in the May elections next year.

    The loss of the mayoral election, or alternatively the loss of the Tooting by-election will also be big pressure points. But as has been observed with this kind of mandate from the party, he's going to be difficult to shift.
    By the time of May I suspect those who voted for him will have come to their senses - meaning that there is less goodwill towards him, so he'll be easier to shift. They also need to find a candidate to rally around.
    Hope you're right. It will be important that the likes of Jarvis, Reeves, Creasy et al. keep a united front and put out a coherent message. The only hope is that they might yet be the future.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    edited September 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: Gillian Duffy has just texted me (seriously): "Vey sad will not vote Lab again" #labourleadership

    LOL. Even being called a bigot by the Labour prime minister didn't sway her before.
  • PlatoSaysPlatoSays Posts: 46
    TBH, he's just looking a trifle unhinged.

    Shouting and hyperbole are fine in Trafalgar Sq with a megaphone - not in a serious job.
    kle4 said:

    PlatoSays said:

    His delightfully shouty placard waving manner is just what we need in LotO :smiley:

    GIN1138 said:

    CopperSulphate said:

    Giving a good speech. Maybe he won't be as bad as everyone thinks?

    He'll be worse...
    It will, at least, work well in the Commons. I hope he doesn't deputise his duties at PMQs.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Best birthday present ever

    Happy Birthday :-)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    William_H said:

    Pong said:

    TheWhiteRabbit Wins:

    http://show.nojam.com/a2sY/search.php?b=0&j=4&s_Name=&s_Wnnr=0&o_lcl=data_1000_Name_1010

    95% of PB'ers underestimated corbyn's share, just 5% overestimated.

    Good to bear in mind for future prognostications as to Mr Corbyn's electoral prospects
    Maybe, although the electorate in those will be a much different animal than this one.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    edited September 2015
    "Global Inequality" - does he not realise that the minimum wage in the UK puts you in the global top 1%? Maybe he wants British people to be poorer so Africans and Asians can be wealthier..?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    ThomasNashe said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Corbyn will be a goner once Labour are destroyed in the May elections next year.

    The loss of the mayoral election, or alternatively the loss of the Tooting by-election will also be big pressure points. But as has been observed with this kind of mandate from the party, he's going to be difficult to shift.
    By the time of May I suspect those who voted for him will have come to their senses - meaning that there is less goodwill towards him, so he'll be easier to shift. They also need to find a candidate to rally around.
    Hope you're right. It will be important that the likes of Jarvis, Reeves, Creasy et al. keep a united front and put out a coherent message. The only hope is that they might yet be the future.
    No chance at all of the Blairites getting hold of it again. It'll be the soft left at best.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    So Corbyn is pledged to tackle homelessness by importing another 50,000 who need homes..good start
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Casino_Royale said:

    He's getting a bit JC now - "one world", "one planet"...

    Does he know he's running for UK Prime Minister?

    Sounds like an ad for British Airways
  • PlatoSaysPlatoSays Posts: 46
    Shh.

    We're meant to all be SCARED of Comrade Corbyn and his Revolutionary Guard.
    saddened said:

    hahahahahahaha, they're so screwed.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    richardDodd said:

    So Corbyn is pledged to tackle homelessness by importing another 50,000 who need homes..good start

    Sounds homeopathic
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929
    Certainly authentic but also rather predictable. He could run out of steam.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    The cuts to Labour MPs et al in the audience are stunningly funny. Seldom seen so many long faces. Kezia Dugdale was the best one, looked like she was chewing on a mouthful of wasps.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited September 2015
    Corbyn wins and a crane collapses into the Grand Mosque in Mecca killing over 100 people, and a gas cylinder explosion at a restaurant in India killing over 80 people..

    Is God having a little joke?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,548
    PlatoSays said:

    The potency of the Tory's genie lamp must have required the selling of souls.

    There's no other explanation. I'd love to know what their grid looks like now.

    Sandpit said:

    So, Jeremy's first Commons vote is the Unions bill next week
    Trident renewal bill after that, or a vote on military action against ISIL...?

    I think Cameron selling his soul to the devil is the only explanation.

    Nobody's that lucky, surely?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Waffle mongous
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,986
    I hope you all liked the pun/dig at Andy Burnham
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    rottenborough said:

    CopperSulphate said:

    Giving a good speech. Maybe he won't be as bad as everyone thinks?

    It's not his communication abilities that are in question.
    Although he does get over-cross when questioned by interviewers.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    Casino_Royale said:

    He's getting a bit JC now - "one world", "one planet"...

    Does he know he's running for UK Prime Minister?

    Nope, sounds more like he's leading Greenpeace or some other lefty campaign organisation.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Did he just say comradeship?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Danny565 said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Corbyn will be a goner once Labour are destroyed in the May elections next year.

    The loss of the mayoral election, or alternatively the loss of the Tooting by-election will also be big pressure points. But as has been observed with this kind of mandate from the party, he's going to be difficult to shift.
    By the time of May I suspect those who voted for him will have come to their senses - meaning that there is less goodwill towards him, so he'll be easier to shift. They also need to find a candidate to rally around.
    Hope you're right. It will be important that the likes of Jarvis, Reeves, Creasy et al. keep a united front and put out a coherent message. The only hope is that they might yet be the future.
    No chance at all of the Blairites getting hold of it again. It'll be the soft left at best.
    Depends on the polling and election results. If Labour drops to below 20% (which I suspect is possible) then the party might come to its senses.
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