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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn: Britain’s first X Factor leader?

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  • An example of the £3 quid crew, who have managed (results pending) to totally clusterf*** the Labour Party:

    Palatino Linotype
    @PLinotype
    Anarchist, Galleanist, Anti-Fascist, IWW/UCU, Writing book about #TonyBenn, @Libcomorg Blogger, Former Editor at @Freedom_paper, Poet, Bibliophile, Historian

    Note that Luigi Galleani is "best known for his enthusiastic advocacy of "propaganda of the deed", i.e. the use of violence to eliminate "tyrants" and "oppressors" and to act as a catalyst to the overthrow of existing government institutions" (wikipedia).
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653

    An example of the £3 quid crew, who have managed (results pending) to totally clusterf*** the Labour Party:

    Palatino Linotype
    @PLinotype
    Anarchist, Galleanist, Anti-Fascist, IWW/UCU, Writing book about #TonyBenn, @Libcomorg Blogger, Former Editor at @Freedom_paper, Poet, Bibliophile, Historian

    Note that Luigi Galleani is "best known for his enthusiastic advocacy of "propaganda of the deed", i.e. the use of violence to eliminate "tyrants" and "oppressors" and to act as a catalyst to the overthrow of existing government institutions" (wikipedia).

    Quite right too. Saint Margarate Thatcher herself used violence to eliminate Argentine tyrants and oppressors (she was a Galtieriist).
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Bernie Sanders is in town tonight for an event.

    He motorcaded down from Chattanooga, quite a way.

    I have noticed several signs today saying "Feel the Bern" - on first thought, a less than wholesome request.

    I was going to go out of curiosity, but it's way downtown and I found out this morning the 'minimum contribution' is $50. That and a 100 mile round trip makes it a no-no for me, particularly as I'll be down at East Lake tomorrow anyway.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Schedule:

    "10.00am: Corbyn, Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall will arrive at the Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre's "candidates' holding room" in Westminster.
    10.30am: The candidates will be informed of the final result but be sworn to secrecy.
    11.00am: Special conference opened by chairman of the National Executive Committee Jim Kennedy, results of the deputy leadership contest to be announced first. Tom Watson - another left wing candidate - is the favourite ahead of Stella Creasy, Caroline Flint, Angela Eagle and Ben Bradshaw.
    11.30am: Results of the leadership contest announced. New leader to deliver speech.
    3.00pm: The new leader will meet with senior management of the party."


    http://www.cityam.com/224158/labour-leadership-election-results-what-time-will-winner-be-announced-and-where-can-i-watch
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    Tim_B said:

    Bernie Sanders is in town tonight for an event.

    He motorcaded down from Chattanooga, quite a way.

    I have noticed several signs today saying "Feel the Bern" - on first thought, a less than wholesome request.

    I was going to go out of curiosity, but it's way downtown and I found out this morning the 'minimum contribution' is $50. That and a 100 mile round trip makes it a no-no for me, particularly as I'll be down at East Lake tomorrow anyway.

    I am sure he will be back at some point during the campaign
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited September 2015
    Looks increasingly like Rick Perry is - no surprise - about to drop out of the POTUS race.

    - and he just has, 'suspending his campaign'.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    HYUFD said:

    Tim_B said:

    Bernie Sanders is in town tonight for an event.

    He motorcaded down from Chattanooga, quite a way.

    I have noticed several signs today saying "Feel the Bern" - on first thought, a less than wholesome request.

    I was going to go out of curiosity, but it's way downtown and I found out this morning the 'minimum contribution' is $50. That and a 100 mile round trip makes it a no-no for me, particularly as I'll be down at East Lake tomorrow anyway.

    I am sure he will be back at some point during the campaign
    He's in the old Macys store downtown on Peachtree. It's now a huge event space. I'm curious to see what the turnout is, and how many African-Americans turn up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim_B said:

    Bernie Sanders is in town tonight for an event.

    He motorcaded down from Chattanooga, quite a way.

    I have noticed several signs today saying "Feel the Bern" - on first thought, a less than wholesome request.

    I was going to go out of curiosity, but it's way downtown and I found out this morning the 'minimum contribution' is $50. That and a 100 mile round trip makes it a no-no for me, particularly as I'll be down at East Lake tomorrow anyway.

    I am sure he will be back at some point during the campaign
    He's in the old Macys store downtown on Peachtree. It's now a huge event space. I'm curious to see what the turnout is, and how many African-Americans turn up.
    I expect there will be a lot of students from the likes of Emory and Georgia State
  • AndyJS said:

    Latest odds:

    Corbyn 1.09 / 1.1
    Cooper 12 / 14
    Burnham 70 / 110
    Kendall 1000

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.103946886

    Burnham now 65 on betfair. What a long, strange trip it has been...
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited September 2015
    HYUFD said:

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim_B said:

    Bernie Sanders is in town tonight for an event.

    He motorcaded down from Chattanooga, quite a way.

    I have noticed several signs today saying "Feel the Bern" - on first thought, a less than wholesome request.

    I was going to go out of curiosity, but it's way downtown and I found out this morning the 'minimum contribution' is $50. That and a 100 mile round trip makes it a no-no for me, particularly as I'll be down at East Lake tomorrow anyway.

    I am sure he will be back at some point during the campaign
    He's in the old Macys store downtown on Peachtree. It's now a huge event space. I'm curious to see what the turnout is, and how many African-Americans turn up.
    I expect there will be a lot of students from the likes of Emory and Georgia State
    At a minmum $50 a pop, I doubt it. Otherwise you are probably right.

    What about Tech students? They're much closer.
  • An example of the £3 quid crew, who have managed (results pending) to totally clusterf*** the Labour Party:

    Naught but PB Tory Herd propaganda!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,354
    Shame, not going to be around PB geeking at the weekend, I too have the Mrs indisposed, allowing me to attention-deficit the actual world or whatever she had her eye on watching on the TV this evening, but meaning lots of running around for me tomorrow and Sunday.

    Even got round to changing my randomly generated smiley face moniker to something equally random from my childhood today. I didn't imagine or intend that I would happen on something so apt as the permanently on the verge of dying from lack of care world's first red rose, 'Flower', and the helpless dinosaur custodian of this happening, 'Mr. Icthyosaurus'.

    I particularly remember the programme in question, Moschops, more because of one of the best complaint letters I ever saw, berating that they were going to mess up kids' education by mixing dinosaurs from different geological periods in the cartoon. The fact that Mr. Icthyosaurus spoke seemed to pass the complainant by (although maybe he chuntered around his house that the creature had a Welsh rather than the more proper Dorset accent!)

    Anyway, with that fairly pointless bit of off-topicness, I will bid you goodnight.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Latest odds:

    Corbyn 1.09 / 1.1
    Cooper 12 / 14
    Burnham 70 / 110
    Kendall 1000

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.103946886

    Burnham now 65 on betfair. What a long, strange trip it has been...
    Just wondering whether to stick a fiver on Cooper in case something unexpected happens.
  • AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Latest odds:

    Corbyn 1.09 / 1.1
    Cooper 12 / 14
    Burnham 70 / 110
    Kendall 1000

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.103946886

    Burnham now 65 on betfair. What a long, strange trip it has been...
    Just wondering whether to stick a fiver on Cooper in case something unexpected happens.
    There's damn few of us left.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    AndyJS said:

    Latest odds:

    Corbyn 1.09 / 1.1
    Cooper 12 / 14
    Burnham 70 / 110
    Kendall 1000

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.103946886

    Burnham now 65 on betfair. What a long, strange trip it has been...
    Nobody knows what these figures will be. The electoral reform society are carrying out the election. You can be pretty sure they are tight lipped about the results. The only information they'll be releasing will be numbers of returns.

    Everything else is guess work. There are far too many unknowns for those odds on Burnham to not be incredibly good value. Thinking of knocking a hundred pounds on betfair.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    edited September 2015
    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim_B said:

    Bernie Sanders is in town tonight for an event.

    He motorcaded down from Chattanooga, quite a way.

    I have noticed several signs today saying "Feel the Bern" - on first thought, a less than wholesome request.

    I was going to go out of curiosity, but it's way downtown and I found out this morning the 'minimum contribution' is $50. That and a 100 mile round trip makes it a no-no for me, particularly as I'll be down at East Lake tomorrow anyway.

    I am sure he will be back at some point during the campaign
    He's in the old Macys store downtown on Peachtree. It's now a huge event space. I'm curious to see what the turnout is, and how many African-Americans turn up.
    I expect there will be a lot of students from the likes of Emory and Georgia State
    At a minmum $50 a pop, I doubt it. Otherwise you are probably right.

    What about Tech students? They're much closer.
    Yes I expect they will be there too, I expect some of the wealthier students have trust funds and $50 will not break the bank
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    JWisemann said:

    RobD said:

    JWisemann said:

    Enjoy your hubris Tories. 2015 is as good as it gets for the conservatives in the 21st century - a wafer thin majority, the first in decades, and probably the last, and you'll be spending most of it ripping yourselves apart. So have your fun.

    Much like 1992 was the last time we'd ever win a majority? :D
    I don't know, I was 13.
    This was said up until May 7th 2015 :)
  • AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Latest odds:

    Corbyn 1.09 / 1.1
    Cooper 12 / 14
    Burnham 70 / 110
    Kendall 1000

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.103946886

    Burnham now 65 on betfair. What a long, strange trip it has been...
    Just wondering whether to stick a fiver on Cooper in case something unexpected happens.
    I'd recommend backing Jezza to finish 2nd - I've been matched as big as 25 on that market
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    JWisemann said:

    RobD said:

    JWisemann said:

    Enjoy your hubris Tories. 2015 is as good as it gets for the conservatives in the 21st century - a wafer thin majority, the first in decades, and probably the last, and you'll be spending most of it ripping yourselves apart. So have your fun.

    Much like 1992 was the last time we'd ever win a majority? :D
    I don't know, I was 13.
    I was interested in politics at that age. Maybe I was a bit weird, lol.
  • notme said:

    AndyJS said:

    Latest odds:

    Corbyn 1.09 / 1.1
    Cooper 12 / 14
    Burnham 70 / 110
    Kendall 1000

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.103946886

    Burnham now 65 on betfair. What a long, strange trip it has been...
    Nobody knows what these figures will be. The electoral reform society are carrying out the election. You can be pretty sure they are tight lipped about the results. The only information they'll be releasing will be numbers of returns.

    Everything else is guess work. There are far too many unknowns for those odds on Burnham to not be incredibly good value. Thinking of knocking a hundred pounds on betfair.
    Not sure that is wise captain mainwaring.
  • AndyJS said:
    I'm not sure Hodges is right.
    I think the hard left will be quite effective in purging the Labour Party. The £3ers will be quite happy with that, I'm not sure they are interested in doing much else.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Latest odds:

    Corbyn 1.09 / 1.1
    Cooper 12 / 14
    Burnham 70 / 110
    Kendall 1000

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.103946886

    Burnham now 65 on betfair. What a long, strange trip it has been...
    Just wondering whether to stick a fiver on Cooper in case something unexpected happens.
    I'd recommend backing Jezza to finish 2nd - I've been matched as big as 25 on that market
    Thanks for the tip.
  • RobD said:

    JWisemann said:

    RobD said:

    JWisemann said:

    Enjoy your hubris Tories. 2015 is as good as it gets for the conservatives in the 21st century - a wafer thin majority, the first in decades, and probably the last, and you'll be spending most of it ripping yourselves apart. So have your fun.

    Much like 1992 was the last time we'd ever win a majority? :D
    I don't know, I was 13.
    This was said up until May 7th 2015 :)
    No, no, some muppets were still proclaiming it in the early hours of May 8th.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Speedy said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    There is one point to make about the Corbyn phenomenon: Only 66% of electorate voted.

    What if he brought in 5-10% of the voters who are registered but do not vote ?

    That would be offset, in the abstract, by a 2.5-5% switch to the Tories.

    But it's worse than that, because these new voters would be disproportionately in safe Labour seats anyway (where both the low turnout and the appetite for socialism is).
    A 2.5-5% drop in Labour support, in the South West may not help the Tories.
    Yes, it won't drop as much there. It will be disproportionately in marginals. There's a reason for this "elections are won on the centre ground" mantra and it's the same reason that the pro-Labour bias in FPTP has been eliminated.

    Ed basically got a Corbyn-lite result (in England) - increased majorities in Liverpool and Manchester; swings to the Tories in Swindon and Warwickshire.
    There aren't many Labour marginals left, in the whole of the midlands and the south there are about 10 of them, almost all Labour seats are now in big cities or industrial areas, mostly in the north of England and east London, pretty Corbyn areas.
    There are plenty of Northern marginals for the Tories to win. Chester, Halifax, Barrow, Lancaster for example. And Labour are supposed to be winning marginals next time around, not defending them.
    Barrow is utterly nailed on Tory gain next time round with Corbyn as leader, and that isnt even taking into account the gigantic rural hinterland it will acquire on a boundary change.
  • JWisemann said:

    Wow, really got a reaction there! Must have hit a nerve, a bit like my agonising mouth ulcerative viral infection.

    EICIPM
  • Moses_ said:


    10.30am: The candidates will be informed of the final result but be sworn to secrecy.

    So Twitter from 10.31.......
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    notme said:

    AndyJS said:

    Latest odds:

    Corbyn 1.09 / 1.1
    Cooper 12 / 14
    Burnham 70 / 110
    Kendall 1000

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.103946886

    Burnham now 65 on betfair. What a long, strange trip it has been...
    Nobody knows what these figures will be. The electoral reform society are carrying out the election. You can be pretty sure they are tight lipped about the results. The only information they'll be releasing will be numbers of returns.

    Everything else is guess work. There are far too many unknowns for those odds on Burnham to not be incredibly good value. Thinking of knocking a hundred pounds on betfair.
    Not sure that is wise captain mainwaring.
    I dont bet that often. I put £50 on my local constituency at something like 4.5/1, it won with a 3,000 majority, I put a bet on the Glenrothes by election at 11pm on the night of the election. It was clear that nobody actually knew what was happening there. And the odds offered far outweighed any certainty. I cleaned up on that one..

    There are too many variables on here, and nobody really knows how this is going to pan out.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2015

    Moses_ said:


    10.30am: The candidates will be informed of the final result but be sworn to secrecy.

    So Twitter from 10.31.......
    I wonder: have the votes already been counted? Or is it a through-the-night job...
  • notme said:

    Speedy said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    There is one point to make about the Corbyn phenomenon: Only 66% of electorate voted.

    What if he brought in 5-10% of the voters who are registered but do not vote ?

    That would be offset, in the abstract, by a 2.5-5% switch to the Tories.

    But it's worse than that, because these new voters would be disproportionately in safe Labour seats anyway (where both the low turnout and the appetite for socialism is).
    A 2.5-5% drop in Labour support, in the South West may not help the Tories.
    Yes, it won't drop as much there. It will be disproportionately in marginals. There's a reason for this "elections are won on the centre ground" mantra and it's the same reason that the pro-Labour bias in FPTP has been eliminated.

    Ed basically got a Corbyn-lite result (in England) - increased majorities in Liverpool and Manchester; swings to the Tories in Swindon and Warwickshire.
    There aren't many Labour marginals left, in the whole of the midlands and the south there are about 10 of them, almost all Labour seats are now in big cities or industrial areas, mostly in the north of England and east London, pretty Corbyn areas.
    There are plenty of Northern marginals for the Tories to win. Chester, Halifax, Barrow, Lancaster for example. And Labour are supposed to be winning marginals next time around, not defending them.
    Barrow is utterly nailed on Tory gain next time round with Corbyn as leader, and that isnt even taking into account the gigantic rural hinterland it will acquire on a boundary change.
    Isn't Barrow held by Woodcock? Definitely not Corbynista.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055

    notme said:

    Speedy said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    There is one point to make about the Corbyn phenomenon: Only 66% of electorate voted.

    What if he brought in 5-10% of the voters who are registered but do not vote ?

    That would be offset, in the abstract, by a 2.5-5% switch to the Tories.

    But it's worse than that, because these new voters would be disproportionately in safe Labour seats anyway (where both the low turnout and the appetite for socialism is).
    A 2.5-5% drop in Labour support, in the South West may not help the Tories.
    Yes, it won't drop as much there. It will be disproportionately in marginals. There's a reason for this "elections are won on the centre ground" mantra and it's the same reason that the pro-Labour bias in FPTP has been eliminated.

    Ed basically got a Corbyn-lite result (in England) - increased majorities in Liverpool and Manchester; swings to the Tories in Swindon and Warwickshire.
    There aren't many Labour marginals left, in the whole of the midlands and the south there are about 10 of them, almost all Labour seats are now in big cities or industrial areas, mostly in the north of England and east London, pretty Corbyn areas.
    There are plenty of Northern marginals for the Tories to win. Chester, Halifax, Barrow, Lancaster for example. And Labour are supposed to be winning marginals next time around, not defending them.
    Barrow is utterly nailed on Tory gain next time round with Corbyn as leader, and that isnt even taking into account the gigantic rural hinterland it will acquire on a boundary change.
    Isn't Barrow held by Woodcock? Definitely not Corbynista.
    The Tories won Barrow in 1983 and 1987 so if it went Tory under Foot it could well go Tory under Corbyn
  • Bed time for me. I need all the sleep I can get to face my betting disaster tomorrow morning.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    David Herdson- as well written as your articles are, I am beginning to find them predictably dull because of your inbuilt Tory bias.

    If I wanted to read Tory crap, I would go to the Telegraph or Mail (not pbCOM)... I really do think you need to take some simple impartiality lessons from TSE, Mike, or Tissue Price who genuinely write well balanced articles.
  • HYUFD said:

    notme said:

    Speedy said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    There is one point to make about the Corbyn phenomenon: Only 66% of electorate voted.

    What if he brought in 5-10% of the voters who are registered but do not vote ?

    That would be offset, in the abstract, by a 2.5-5% switch to the Tories.

    But it's worse than that, because these new voters would be disproportionately in safe Labour seats anyway (where both the low turnout and the appetite for socialism is).
    A 2.5-5% drop in Labour support, in the South West may not help the Tories.
    Yes, it won't drop as much there. It will be disproportionately in marginals. There's a reason for this "elections are won on the centre ground" mantra and it's the same reason that the pro-Labour bias in FPTP has been eliminated.

    Ed basically got a Corbyn-lite result (in England) - increased majorities in Liverpool and Manchester; swings to the Tories in Swindon and Warwickshire.
    There aren't many Labour marginals left, in the whole of the midlands and the south there are about 10 of them, almost all Labour seats are now in big cities or industrial areas, mostly in the north of England and east London, pretty Corbyn areas.
    There are plenty of Northern marginals for the Tories to win. Chester, Halifax, Barrow, Lancaster for example. And Labour are supposed to be winning marginals next time around, not defending them.
    Barrow is utterly nailed on Tory gain next time round with Corbyn as leader, and that isnt even taking into account the gigantic rural hinterland it will acquire on a boundary change.
    Isn't Barrow held by Woodcock? Definitely not Corbynista.
    The Tories won Barrow in 1983 and 1987 so if it went Tory under Foot it could well go Tory under Corbyn
    Submarines........
  • tyson said:

    David Herdson- as well written as your articles are, I am beginning to find them predictably dull because of your inbuilt Tory bias.

    If I wanted to read Tory crap, I would go to the Telegraph or Mail (not pbCOM)... I really do think you need to take some simple impartiality lessons from TSE, Mike, or Tissue Price who genuinely write well balanced articles.

    You'd prefer not to understand what your 'enemy' is thinking?

    Right-oh!
  • Ali G talks to Donald Trump, albeit just briefly (literally showing this right now on Freeview 8, London Live):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDu9CvbrnlM
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited September 2015
    tyson said:

    David Herdson- as well written as your articles are, I am beginning to find them predictably dull because of your inbuilt Tory bias.

    If I wanted to read Tory crap, I would go to the Telegraph or Mail (not pbCOM)... I really do think you need to take some simple impartiality lessons from TSE, Mike, or Tissue Price who genuinely write well balanced articles.

    I think that's a bit harsh on the Big H.

    I don't agree with a lot of what he writes, but I don't need to - a strongly argued point of view that is contrary to my own need not be "Tory crap" at all, and is still worth a read. David is very good at cultural and historic analogies. Not all stand up to close scrutiny, and some turn out only to work at a superficial level, but the vast majority are insightful and make you think, even if it's ultimately to conclude that it isn't a helpful way to look at it. I don't think his analysis is dripping with partisan bias, even if his own leanings are visible, but other regular slot-writers have a leftier perspective so I don't think that the site's headers overall are out of kilter.

    I think the X-factor (or similar public voting competition) might be quite a good one for this Labour leadership campaign, bearing in mind how many people have been energised to take part. Plenty of ex-winners of talent contests have gone on to be less successful than the people they beat - sometimes they were just a fad, sometimes they had a loyal and loud fanbase that wasn't reflective of the commercial marketplace. Those are both symptoms of Corbynmania that ought to leave Labourites concerned whether they've caught something nasty... and I'm saying that as somebody who put Corbyn #1.
  • JWisemann said:

    Wow, really got a reaction there! Must have hit a nerve, a bit like my agonising mouth ulcerative viral infection.

    EICIPM
    JICIPM, actually!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055

    HYUFD said:

    notme said:

    Speedy said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    There is one point to make about the Corbyn phenomenon: Only 66% of electorate voted.

    What if he brought in 5-10% of the voters who are registered but do not vote ?

    That would be offset, in the abstract, by a 2.5-5% switch to the Tories.

    But it's worse than that, because these new voters would be disproportionately in safe Labour seats anyway (where both the low turnout and the appetite for socialism is).
    A 2.5-5% drop in Labour support, in the South West may not help the Tories.
    Yes, it won't drop as much there. It will be disproportionately in marginals. There's a reason for this "elections are won on the centre ground" mantra and it's the same reason that the pro-Labour bias in FPTP has been eliminated.

    Ed basically got a Corbyn-lite result (in England) - increased majorities in Liverpool and Manchester; swings to the Tories in Swindon and Warwickshire.
    There aren't many Labour marginals left, in the whole of the midlands and the south there are about 10 of them, almost all Labour seats are now in big cities or industrial areas, mostly in the north of England and east London, pretty Corbyn areas.
    There are plenty of Northern marginals for the Tories to win. Chester, Halifax, Barrow, Lancaster for example. And Labour are supposed to be winning marginals next time around, not defending them.
    Barrow is utterly nailed on Tory gain next time round with Corbyn as leader, and that isnt even taking into account the gigantic rural hinterland it will acquire on a boundary change.
    Isn't Barrow held by Woodcock? Definitely not Corbynista.
    The Tories won Barrow in 1983 and 1987 so if it went Tory under Foot it could well go Tory under Corbyn
    Submarines........
    Indeed, it will not vote for a Labour leader seen as weak on defence, night
  • RobD said:

    JWisemann said:

    RobD said:

    JWisemann said:

    Enjoy your hubris Tories. 2015 is as good as it gets for the conservatives in the 21st century - a wafer thin majority, the first in decades, and probably the last, and you'll be spending most of it ripping yourselves apart. So have your fun.

    Much like 1992 was the last time we'd ever win a majority? :D
    I don't know, I was 13.
    This was said up until May 7th 2015 :)
    No, no, some muppets were still proclaiming it in the early hours of May 8th.
    Has Paddy eaten his hat yet??

    :lol::lol::lol:
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Mike hits the nail on the head.
    Twitter
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 4h4 hours ago
    Let's remind ourselves that LAB has only ever won 5 working majorities of which three were while Tony Blair was leader

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    There is one point to make about the Corbyn phenomenon: Only 66% of electorate voted.

    What if he brought in 5-10% of the voters who are registered but do not vote ?

    That would be offset, in the abstract, by a 2.5-5% switch to the Tories.

    But it's worse than that, because these new voters would be disproportionately in safe Labour seats anyway (where both the low turnout and the appetite for socialism is).
    A 2.5-5% drop in Labour support, in the South West may not help the Tories.
    Yes, it won't drop as much there. It will be disproportionately in marginals. There's a reason for this "elections are won on the centre ground" mantra and it's the same reason that the pro-Labour bias in FPTP has been eliminated.

    Ed basically got a Corbyn-lite result (in England) - increased majorities in Liverpool and Manchester; swings to the Tories in Swindon and Warwickshire.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    edited September 2015
    fitalass said:

    Mike hits the nail on the head.
    Twitter
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 4h4 hours ago
    Let's remind ourselves that LAB has only ever won 5 working majorities of which three were while Tony Blair was leader

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    There is one point to make about the Corbyn phenomenon: Only 66% of electorate voted.

    What if he brought in 5-10% of the voters who are registered but do not vote ?

    That would be offset, in the abstract, by a 2.5-5% switch to the Tories.

    But it's worse than that, because these new voters would be disproportionately in safe Labour seats anyway (where both the low turnout and the appetite for socialism is).
    A 2.5-5% drop in Labour support, in the South West may not help the Tories.
    Yes, it won't drop as much there. It will be disproportionately in marginals. There's a reason for this "elections are won on the centre ground" mantra and it's the same reason that the pro-Labour bias in FPTP has been eliminated.

    Ed basically got a Corbyn-lite result (in England) - increased majorities in Liverpool and Manchester; swings to the Tories in Swindon and Warwickshire.
    Mind you the Tories have arguably only won 6 working majorities since the war, in 1955, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1983 and 1987. However, it is clear Corbyn will certainly not be adding to Labour's total
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    Mike hits the nail on the head.
    Twitter
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 4h4 hours ago
    Let's remind ourselves that LAB has only ever won 5 working majorities of which three were while Tony Blair was leader

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    There is one point to make about the Corbyn phenomenon: Only 66% of electorate voted.

    What if he brought in 5-10% of the voters who are registered but do not vote ?

    That would be offset, in the abstract, by a 2.5-5% switch to the Tories.

    But it's worse than that, because these new voters would be disproportionately in safe Labour seats anyway (where both the low turnout and the appetite for socialism is).
    A 2.5-5% drop in Labour support, in the South West may not help the Tories.
    Yes, it won't drop as much there. It will be disproportionately in marginals. There's a reason for this "elections are won on the centre ground" mantra and it's the same reason that the pro-Labour bias in FPTP has been eliminated.

    Ed basically got a Corbyn-lite result (in England) - increased majorities in Liverpool and Manchester; swings to the Tories in Swindon and Warwickshire.
    Mind you the Tories have arguably only won 6 working majorities since the war, in 1955, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1983 and 1987. However, it is clear Corbyn will certainly not be adding to Labour's total
    I'd be very surprised if this parliament doesn't turn out as a five-year working majority Tory government.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    Mike hits the nail on the head.
    Twitter
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 4h4 hours ago
    Let's remind ourselves that LAB has only ever won 5 working majorities of which three were while Tony Blair was leader

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    There is one point to make about the Corbyn phenomenon: Only 66% of electorate voted.

    What if he brought in 5-10% of the voters who are registered but do not vote ?

    That would be offset, in the abstract, by a 2.5-5% switch to the Tories.

    But it's worse than that, because these new voters would be disproportionately in safe Labour seats anyway (where both the low turnout and the appetite for socialism is).
    A 2.5-5% drop in Labour support, in the South West may not help the Tories.
    Yes, it won't drop as much there. It will be disproportionately in marginals. There's a reason for this "elections are won on the centre ground" mantra and it's the same reason that the pro-Labour bias in FPTP has been eliminated.

    Ed basically got a Corbyn-lite result (in England) - increased majorities in Liverpool and Manchester; swings to the Tories in Swindon and Warwickshire.
    Mind you the Tories have arguably only won 6 working majorities since the war, in 1955, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1983 and 1987. However, it is clear Corbyn will certainly not be adding to Labour's total
    I'd be very surprised if this parliament doesn't turn out as a five-year working majority Tory government.
    They have already lost the EU vote last week, so it has already arguably failed to last, night
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    Mike hits the nail on the head.
    Twitter
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 4h4 hours ago
    Let's remind ourselves that LAB has only ever won 5 working majorities of which three were while Tony Blair was leader

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    There is one point to make about the Corbyn phenomenon: Only 66% of electorate voted.

    What if he brought in 5-10% of the voters who are registered but do not vote ?

    That would be offset, in the abstract, by a 2.5-5% switch to the Tories.

    But it's worse than that, because these new voters would be disproportionately in safe Labour seats anyway (where both the low turnout and the appetite for socialism is).
    A 2.5-5% drop in Labour support, in the South West may not help the Tories.
    Yes, it won't drop as much there. It will be disproportionately in marginals. There's a reason for this "elections are won on the centre ground" mantra and it's the same reason that the pro-Labour bias in FPTP has been eliminated.

    Ed basically got a Corbyn-lite result (in England) - increased majorities in Liverpool and Manchester; swings to the Tories in Swindon and Warwickshire.
    Mind you the Tories have arguably only won 6 working majorities since the war, in 1955, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1983 and 1987. However, it is clear Corbyn will certainly not be adding to Labour's total
    I'd be very surprised if this parliament doesn't turn out as a five-year working majority Tory government.
    They have already lost the EU vote last week, so it has already arguably failed to last, night
    They could lose every single EU vote, that does not mean they cannot effectively govern the country. To suggest otherwise is an overreaction.
    Angela Eagle tried to suggest it was more of a farce than the Labour Leadership contest, but if you put it into perspective in terms of the impact on real people then it clearly isn't.
  • MTimT said:

    Ouch ouch ouch. Hillary's relaunch of planned spontaneity, scripted off-scriptedness, and focus-group tested authenticity doesn't seem to be impressing - not good to have your name in the same sentence as moron:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-clinton-campaign-puts-the-moron-into-oxymoron/2015/09/11/8ba14572-5895-11e5-abe9-27d53f250b11_story.html

    Ouch, is Lucy Powell running the Hilary campaign? There seems be disturbing parallels to the Ed is human campaign in that article.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Tim_B said:

    Bernie Sanders is in town tonight for an event.

    He motorcaded down from Chattanooga, quite a way.

    I have noticed several signs today saying "Feel the Bern" - on first thought, a less than wholesome request.

    I was going to go out of curiosity, but it's way downtown and I found out this morning the 'minimum contribution' is $50. That and a 100 mile round trip makes it a no-no for me, particularly as I'll be down at East Lake tomorrow anyway.

    Feel the Bern was a Stephen Colbert joke on his second night, where he listed [fake] merchandizing from the various campaigns - there was a coffee mug with 'Feel the Bern' on it, and a joke that his HR warned Bernie not to say that to the interns.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    AndyJS said:

    JWisemann said:

    RobD said:

    JWisemann said:

    Enjoy your hubris Tories. 2015 is as good as it gets for the conservatives in the 21st century - a wafer thin majority, the first in decades, and probably the last, and you'll be spending most of it ripping yourselves apart. So have your fun.

    Much like 1992 was the last time we'd ever win a majority? :D
    I don't know, I was 13.
    I was interested in politics at that age. Maybe I was a bit weird, lol.

    8 for me - the Six-Day War in 1967 happened while I was a kid in Cyprus.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Scots are still opposed to independence, a year after they formally rejected it in the referendum, according to an exclusive poll for The Times.

    If a vote was held tomorrow, the Yes campaign would lose again, albeit by a slightly smaller margin of 48 per cent to 52 per cent, YouGov found.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article4554891.ece
  • tyson said:

    David Herdson- as well written as your articles are, I am beginning to find them predictably dull because of your inbuilt Tory bias.

    If I wanted to read Tory crap, I would go to the Telegraph or Mail (not pbCOM)... I really do think you need to take some simple impartiality lessons from TSE, Mike, or Tissue Price who genuinely write well balanced articles.

    I think that's a bit harsh on the Big H.

    I don't agree with a lot of what he writes, but I don't need to - a strongly argued point of view that is contrary to my own need not be "Tory crap" at all, and is still worth a read. David is very good at cultural and historic analogies. Not all stand up to close scrutiny, and some turn out only to work at a superficial level, but the vast majority are insightful and make you think, even if it's ultimately to conclude that it isn't a helpful way to look at it. I don't think his analysis is dripping with partisan bias, even if his own leanings are visible, but other regular slot-writers have a leftier perspective so I don't think that the site's headers overall are out of kilter.

    I think the X-factor (or similar public voting competition) might be quite a good one for this Labour leadership campaign, bearing in mind how many people have been energised to take part. Plenty of ex-winners of talent contests have gone on to be less successful than the people they beat - sometimes they were just a fad, sometimes they had a loyal and loud fanbase that wasn't reflective of the commercial marketplace. Those are both symptoms of Corbynmania that ought to leave Labourites concerned whether they've caught something nasty... and I'm saying that as somebody who put Corbyn #1.
    I also thought of the talent contest analogy, so that at least is not "Tory crap".

    The issue is not so much JC's personality (although the stresses of leadership will expose its shortcomings) as the fact that Labour activists and "middle England" hate each other deeply. I expect Labour to win fewer seats under JC than it did under Foot in 1983 - it's only because the next election is so far away that I don't put my money where my mouth is.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,994

    It's like Christmas eve back when I was a toddler. Can't wait to see what tomorrow delivers....

    God, I remember that - so vividly. I used to be uncontrollably excited.

    Corbyn is the Hornby train set, ice-cream maker, latest lego box and scalextric oval all rolled into one for us centre-right political nerds.
    Go and look under the tree. You'll find Maximus Prime there too....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,994
    surbiton said:

    There is one point to make about the Corbyn phenomenon: Only 66% of electorate voted.

    What if he brought in 5-10% of the voters who are registered but do not vote ?

    He could easily do that. It's just that these converts from the Can't Be Arsed Party will be coming out to vote to PREVENT Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.
  • Tim_B said:

    Bernie Sanders is in town tonight for an event.

    He motorcaded down from Chattanooga, quite a way.

    I have noticed several signs today saying "Feel the Bern" - on first thought, a less than wholesome request.

    I was going to go out of curiosity, but it's way downtown and I found out this morning the 'minimum contribution' is $50. That and a 100 mile round trip makes it a no-no for me, particularly as I'll be down at East Lake tomorrow anyway.

    Why didn't Bern travel by train from Chattanooga on the Choo Choo?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzHIn5S-RbY
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    "The problem with basing your whole electoral strategy on people who do not vote is that it is very hard to increase voter turnout for just your side."
    Someone has also compared it to selling a car to someone who doesn't want, or can't be bothered, to drive.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    A new day has dawned , has it not ....
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Pauly said:

    "The problem with basing your whole electoral strategy on people who do not vote is that it is very hard to increase voter turnout for just your side."
    Someone has also compared it to selling a car to someone who doesn't want, or can't be bothered, to drive.

    One other point about the "targeting non-voter" strategy. Even if it were destined to have some measure of success (in the sense of actually increasing voting amongst the group, leaving aside issues about where the votes are based and whether they are matched by a shedding of votes elsewhere) it could be noted that such "success" is unlikely to be reflected in the opinion polls due to the heavy downweighting that pollsters apply (and will apply) to such self-identifying voters.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    JackW said:

    A new day has dawned , has it not ....

    It's still dark Jack. Apparently on May 2, 1997 Campbell had Blair being driven round the block to kill time to allow it to get light.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    JackW said:

    A new day has dawned , has it not ....

    No sleeps left.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    edited September 2015
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    A new day has dawned , has it not ....

    No sleeps left.
    I was hoping for a 7 til 8 nap but if you insist :(

    Not sure if you all saw the news earlier in the month but the coal power station Eggborough is planning to close in March 2016.
    This means that Eggborough, Longannet and Ferrybridge C are all planning to switch off in March 2016 - this truly is the greenest government ever! And to think, Corbyn wants to bring the coal mines back...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    tlg86 said:

    JackW said:

    A new day has dawned , has it not ....

    It's still dark Jack. Apparently on May 2, 1997 Campbell had Blair being driven round the block to kill time to allow it to get light.
    On awakening Mrs JackW always lightens up my day ....
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    A new day has dawned , has it not ....

    No sleeps left.
    I may take a morning nap before the festivities commence ....

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pauly said:

    "The problem with basing your whole electoral strategy on people who do not vote is that it is very hard to increase voter turnout for just your side."
    Someone has also compared it to selling a car to someone who doesn't want, or can't be bothered, to drive.

    Perhaps the x factor analogy has some merit:

    Jezza is one of the talentless people full of self delusion that gets put on early to make a spectacle of themselves. The judges sit there open mouthed as the audience at home keep them in the mix. Think Wagner.

    https://youtu.be/vq1XWd1Hlbk
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited September 2015
    @JackW

    Before lightening your wallet? ;-(
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Is there any precedent for a man so untested at the forefront of British politics to reach such a high position? He's just going to crack very quickly under the strain isn't he? I haven't thought in great detail, but i'm struggling off the top of my head. Even people who spring to mind as being inexperienced you usually find they have held some Govt position or shadow cabinet role. Even Pitt the Younger had had a year as Chancellor!

    You might be able to make some allowances if he was young, and his untested nature was simply a consequence of a rapid rise from a young age, but his position is indicative of somebody who has arguably deliberately steered a course away from positions of power and responsibility.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    I really can't believe my eyes on how much renewable progress we have made without dooming ourselves with the energy protest group parties...
    http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
    The figures right now are pretty incredible.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    @JackW

    Before lightening your wallet? ;-(

    That's a given ....

    And boy have I given !! .... :smile:

  • Alex: not only is he an unknown, the political historians will surely struggle to name somebody so unpopular within his party before he even starts. Some of the interviews/quotes/tweets today will be hilarious

    I'm genuinely fascinated at how this sideshow is going to develop, some people are going to say and do things they regret, that's for sure.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Alex: not only is he an unknown, the political historians will surely struggle to name somebody so unpopular within his party before he even starts. Some of the interviews/quotes/tweets today will be hilarious

    I'm genuinely fascinated at how this sideshow is going to develop, some people are going to say and do things they regret, that's for sure.

    One striking thing about Jezza is that, when faced with his various quotes in support of Isamist or Republican terrorists, he does not take back the quote, say it was out of context or apologise. Either he is very arrogant in his fixed beliefs or he is always right. My money is on the former. This inflexible certainty is something that we have not seen in recent years.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    Betfair has gone into suspended mode :(
    On oddschecker only 4 betting companies remain. :O
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,419
    Burnham at 65s may well be value. But obviously not a likely winner...
  • Pauly said:

    I really can't believe my eyes on how much renewable progress we have made without dooming ourselves with the energy protest group parties...
    http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
    The figures right now are pretty incredible.

    "right now"

    Do you post this when wind generation is near 0 GW?

    And how do we generate power to meet demand and balance the transmission network when wind generation is low? Currently the answer is mostly stand-by CCGT which cost the consumer an absolute fortune.
  • Alex: not only is he an unknown, the political historians will surely struggle to name somebody so unpopular within his party before he even starts. Some of the interviews/quotes/tweets today will be hilarious

    I'm genuinely fascinated at how this sideshow is going to develop, some people are going to say and do things they regret, that's for sure.

    One striking thing about Jezza is that, when faced with his various quotes in support of Isamist or Republican terrorists, he does not take back the quote, say it was out of context or apologise. Either he is very arrogant in his fixed beliefs or he is always right. My money is on the former. This inflexible certainty is something that we have not seen in recent years.
    Yes, and yet some - especially NP - thinks that Corbyn will listen to the will of the party. As I asked the other day, when has Corbbyn changed his mind publicly on anything?

    It seems a classic case of hope over reality, especially as many in the party would want things which are very, very unCorbynite.

    Corbynite: the mysterious substance that defeats superman, aka mild-mannered reporter Tony 'third way' Blair.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    As it's a Labour party event will we be given a 45 minutes warning before the nuclear option hits ground zero?

    I understand the latest Labour party suicide note will be read from 11am with the "Deputy Suicide Note" hitting the red button before the fallout from the main blast hits at 11:30am.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Good piece.

    Dreadful for the country and for Labour if he wins. Even Cooper's whining about 'white men' would be preferable.
  • FPT: Mr. Thompson, Venice profited in the short term, but the Fourth Crusade shattered the power of the Eastern Empire. Whilst it was eventually recovered after a period in exile, its history became a constant erosion of its strength at the hands of the Ottoman Turks, who went on to takeover eastern Europe.

    In strategic terms, it was even more Pyrrhic than Asculum. Pyrrhus lost a war, the Fourth Crusade lost half a continent.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 994
    Is there a book on what time the result will be leaked?
  • Last night, on Channel 4 news, Cameron was being mocked for his lack of support for the 'refugees' (not migrants). Nothing new there.

    It was given a bizarre twist, when one of the guests was a Jewish woman, nearing 90, who came to this country on kindertransport in 1939. The not-so-subtle point was how differently refugees were treated then. She tried to emote with the best of them, but her 'virtue signalling' was really pretty ordinary.

    The relative scale of the rescues, of course, never had a mention.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JackW said:

    As it's a Labour party event will we be given a 45 minutes warning before the nuclear option hits ground zero?

    I understand the latest Labour party suicide note will be read from 11am with the "Deputy Suicide Note" hitting the red button before the fallout from the main blast hits at 11:30am.

    The triple whammy of Khan then Watson the Corbyn is quite something, but appears to be on the cards. Labour has dowsed itself in kerosene and is fumbling for the matches as we write...

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited September 2015
    RE the Matt cartoon and the female barrister. she really is a charmer isn't she.. and Proudman isn't her "real " name

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/11243593/Matt-cartoons.html?frame=3437242


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/11859971/Sexism-row-barrister-Charlotte-Proudman-wrote-vitriolic-email-to-her-elderly-grandmother-before-her-death.html

    She should stand for the Labour Party, I am sure Harriet Harman would propose her.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 994
    Historical Labour leaders have been polite to the NEC and conference whilst completely ignoring them. With Corby as Leader how will he cope when they come up with something really daft?
  • Pauly said:

    I really can't believe my eyes on how much renewable progress we have made without dooming ourselves with the energy protest group parties...
    http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
    The figures right now are pretty incredible.

    "right now"

    Do you post this when wind generation is near 0 GW?

    And how do we generate power to meet demand and balance the transmission network when wind generation is low? Currently the answer is mostly stand-by CCGT which cost the consumer an absolute fortune.
    Thanks Pauly, it's an interesting site http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ . Currently Wind 20%,, coal 15%.
  • Mr. Kendrick, not seen any broadcast media manage to mention the polling which shows the vast majority either agree with Cameron's migration stance or wants him to take a harder line.

    It's an omission of some significance, and its absence is practically misleading given the soft line the broadcast media have been going with [even if you believe we should take more, ignoring public opinion whilst constantly implying the public want the opposite of what the polling shows is not reputable behaviour].
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Icarus said:

    Historical Labour leaders have been polite to the NEC and conference whilst completely ignoring them. With Corby as Leader how will he cope when they come up with something really daft?

    Like what?
  • Pauly said:

    I really can't believe my eyes on how much renewable progress we have made without dooming ourselves with the energy protest group parties...
    http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
    The figures right now are pretty incredible.

    "right now"

    Do you post this when wind generation is near 0 GW?

    And how do we generate power to meet demand and balance the transmission network when wind generation is low? Currently the answer is mostly stand-by CCGT which cost the consumer an absolute fortune.
    Thanks Pauly, it's an interesting site http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ . Currently Wind 20%,, coal 15%.
    Yes, it's a good site that's been linked to on here many times before.

    Oddly, people mostly link to it when renewables are high as if to prove a point, and rarely when they are low.

    Odd, that.
  • Obviously there are no mirrors in the Corbyn household..or the carer had a day off
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    RE the Matt cartoon and the female barrister. she really is a charmer isn't she.. and Proudman isn't her "real " name

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/11243593/Matt-cartoons.html?frame=3437242


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/11859971/Sexism-row-barrister-Charlotte-Proudman-wrote-vitriolic-email-to-her-elderly-grandmother-before-her-death.html

    She should stand for the Labour Party, I am sure Harriet Harman would propose her.

    If she changed her name by deedpoll then Proudman is her real name. Interesting that her PhD at Cambridge is in FGM. It would be useful to have some barristers who are versed in the subject.

    She rather overreacted, and should have given the guy the brush off rather than spread it over Facebook, but doesn't deserve the twittermob lynching. Indeed does anyone deserve the twittermob?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    As it's a Labour party event will we be given a 45 minutes warning before the nuclear option hits ground zero?

    I understand the latest Labour party suicide note will be read from 11am with the "Deputy Suicide Note" hitting the red button before the fallout from the main blast hits at 11:30am.

    The triple whammy of Khan then Watson the Corbyn is quite something, but appears to be on the cards. Labour has dowsed itself in kerosene and is fumbling for the matches as we write...

    We must hope the Samaritans have taken on extra staff for later on this morning especially in Labour marginal seats.

    One must also feel for the select coterie of PB lefties who had the dream of EICIPM snatched away from them, albeit some ARSE told them it was never possible. And now the long nightmare of the Jezzbollah is about to unfold.

    "Things can only get better ...."

    :smile:





  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,988
    David Kendrick

    "Last night, on Channel 4 news, Cameron was being mocked for his lack of support for the 'refugees' (not migrants). Nothing new there.

    It was given a bizarre twist, when one of the guests was a Jewish woman, nearing 90, who came to this country on kindertransport in 1939. The not-so-subtle point was how differently refugees were treated then. She tried to emote with the best of them, but her 'virtue signalling' was really pretty ordinary.'

    This is becoming the humanitarian crisis of our lifetime. The UK's reputation for humanitarianism is being trashed and I mean trashed. Last night I heard the UK being compared unfavourably with Hungary.

    Meanwhile our fat f***ing blob of a Prime Minister is watching cricket......
  • Pauly said:

    I really can't believe my eyes on how much renewable progress we have made without dooming ourselves with the energy protest group parties...
    http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
    The figures right now are pretty incredible.

    "right now"

    Do you post this when wind generation is near 0 GW?

    And how do we generate power to meet demand and balance the transmission network when wind generation is low? Currently the answer is mostly stand-by CCGT which cost the consumer an absolute fortune.
    Thanks Pauly, it's an interesting site http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ . Currently Wind 20%,, coal 15%.
    Yes, it's a good site that's been linked to on here many times before.

    Oddly, people mostly link to it when renewables are high as if to prove a point, and rarely when they are low.

    Odd, that.
    As you know, I'm interested in facts, so leave off the innuendo and sarcasm please.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    RE the Matt cartoon and the female barrister. she really is a charmer isn't she.. and Proudman isn't her "real " name

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/11243593/Matt-cartoons.html?frame=3437242


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/11859971/Sexism-row-barrister-Charlotte-Proudman-wrote-vitriolic-email-to-her-elderly-grandmother-before-her-death.html

    She should stand for the Labour Party, I am sure Harriet Harman would propose her.

    If she changed her name by deedpoll then Proudman is her real name. Interesting that her PhD at Cambridge is in FGM. It would be useful to have some barristers who are versed in the subject.

    She rather overreacted, and should have given the guy the brush off rather than spread it over Facebook, but doesn't deserve the twittermob lynching. Indeed does anyone deserve the twittermob?

    Ok it is her real name.. I did put it in inverted commas.

    Quite frankly I think you are far too sympathetic. The guy she slagged off didn't deserve what she did to him either It was deliberate and it was she who took to twitter IIRC.. If you put it out there, expect not everyone to agree with you.
  • Mr. Roger, Merkel's moronic position is encouraging more dangerous journeys, which will enrich criminals (including ISIS). Cameron's position is to take in refugees, but from the camps, which will not provide an incentive for more journeys.

    Countries have a right to enforce their borders. Refugees must be given aid (something we're doing more of than Germany and France put together, I believe).
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited September 2015
    Roger you do write some f^cking twaddle.. how many refs have you helped this week... the same as last week probably.. none.. and what is wrong with Hungary..great people who are just pissed off at Merkel..
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 994
    Speaking as an opinionated 66 year old, the prospect of a Corby victory is encouraging personally and politically..... For the Liberal Democrats.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    Icarus said:

    Speaking as an opinionated 66 year old, the prospect of a Corby victory is encouraging personally and politically..... For the Liberal Democrats.

    LDs have their own troubles. Far worse state than Labour. Don't even have a pulse.
  • Pauly said:

    I really can't believe my eyes on how much renewable progress we have made without dooming ourselves with the energy protest group parties...
    http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
    The figures right now are pretty incredible.

    "right now"

    Do you post this when wind generation is near 0 GW?

    And how do we generate power to meet demand and balance the transmission network when wind generation is low? Currently the answer is mostly stand-by CCGT which cost the consumer an absolute fortune.
    Thanks Pauly, it's an interesting site http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ . Currently Wind 20%,, coal 15%.
    Yes, it's a good site that's been linked to on here many times before.

    Oddly, people mostly link to it when renewables are high as if to prove a point, and rarely when they are low.

    Odd, that.
    As you know, I'm interested in facts, so leave off the innuendo and sarcasm please.
    I'm glad you believe you're interested in facts. Cheering high figures on that website whilst not acknowledging the lower ones - or the problems that renewables cause to the network and consumers' pockets - isn't being interested in facts.
  • It's here!!!!!!
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    edited September 2015

    Pauly said:

    I really can't believe my eyes on how much renewable progress we have made without dooming ourselves with the energy protest group parties...
    http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
    The figures right now are pretty incredible.

    "right now"

    Do you post this when wind generation is near 0 GW?

    And how do we generate power to meet demand and balance the transmission network when wind generation is low? Currently the answer is mostly stand-by CCGT which cost the consumer an absolute fortune.
    Thanks Pauly, it's an interesting site http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ . Currently Wind 20%,, coal 15%.
    Yes, it's a good site that's been linked to on here many times before.

    Oddly, people mostly link to it when renewables are high as if to prove a point, and rarely when they are low.

    Odd, that.
    I'm on the right, but I understand your intellectual cynicism. I linked it primarily because at the time of linking renewables/imports/nuclear combined were 75%+ which, as someone who regularly checks the site, I have never seen before.

    Hopefully the issues of baseload will be fixed with european energy interconnectors and new tidal technology pioneered with the expensive Swansea project. Tidal/wave are quite predictable into the future which contrasts heavily with the crazy behaviour of wind.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    RE the Matt cartoon and the female barrister. she really is a charmer isn't she.. and Proudman isn't her "real " name

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/11243593/Matt-cartoons.html?frame=3437242


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/11859971/Sexism-row-barrister-Charlotte-Proudman-wrote-vitriolic-email-to-her-elderly-grandmother-before-her-death.html

    She should stand for the Labour Party, I am sure Harriet Harman would propose her.

    If she changed her name by deedpoll then Proudman is her real name. Interesting that her PhD at Cambridge is in FGM. It would be useful to have some barristers who are versed in the subject.

    She rather overreacted, and should have given the guy the brush off rather than spread it over Facebook, but doesn't deserve the twittermob lynching. Indeed does anyone deserve the twittermob?

    Ok it is her real name.. I did put it in inverted commas.

    Quite frankly I think you are far too sympathetic. The guy she slagged off didn't deserve what she did to him either It was deliberate and it was she who took to twitter IIRC.. If you put it out there, expect not everyone to agree with you.
    Twittermob lynchings are rarely edifying. Carter-Smith does seem to be a bit inappropriate, and one wonders how he treats women generally.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Roger said:

    David Kendrick

    "Last night, on Channel 4 news, Cameron was being mocked for his lack of support for the 'refugees' (not migrants). Nothing new there.

    It was given a bizarre twist, when one of the guests was a Jewish woman, nearing 90, who came to this country on kindertransport in 1939. The not-so-subtle point was how differently refugees were treated then. She tried to emote with the best of them, but her 'virtue signalling' was really pretty ordinary.'

    This is becoming the humanitarian crisis of our lifetime. The UK's reputation for humanitarianism is being trashed and I mean trashed. Last night I heard the UK being compared unfavourably with Hungary.

    Meanwhile our fat f***ing blob of a Prime Minister is watching cricket......

    Would you prefer it if he was helming a leaky rubber dinghy, off the coast of Turkey.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    edited September 2015

    Alex: not only is he an unknown, the political historians will surely struggle to name somebody so unpopular within his party before he even starts. Some of the interviews/quotes/tweets today will be hilarious

    I'm genuinely fascinated at how this sideshow is going to develop, some people are going to say and do things they regret, that's for sure.

    One striking thing about Jezza is that, when faced with his various quotes in support of Isamist or Republican terrorists, he does not take back the quote, say it was out of context or apologise. Either he is very arrogant in his fixed beliefs or he is always right. My money is on the former. This inflexible certainty is something that we have not seen in recent years.
    What's fascinating is when you comb through the recent Ashcroft polling over why labour lost. It combines a standard opinion poll with some focus groups. The move to UKIP by Labour voters seem like they could be very tempted back by Corbyn's hard left position, however are thoroughly repelled about mass immigration. It is their one big thing.

    That one demographic that you would hope a strong left candidate to pick up are going to be put off by his immigration views.

    Theres a wider problem as well for Corbyn. He just likes unsavoury muslims. He comes across as if he *really* likes them. Labour has acquired for itself a reputation for being far too soft, and too willing to cosy up to unpleasant people, predominantly muslim.

    This is going to come more and more under scrutiny. The more of an issue it becomes the more none muslim minority groups, especially Jews, but sikhs and hindus as well are going to be questioning their long term support for Labour. A process that started well before JC.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Icarus said:

    Speaking as an opinionated 66 year old, the prospect of a Corby victory is encouraging personally and politically..... For the Liberal Democrats.

    You mean the Tory B team !
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