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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn: Britain’s first X Factor leader?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn: Britain’s first X Factor leader?
Jedward may not, on the face of it, have much in common with Jeremy Corbyn. One is an irritating novelty act, swept up in a collective wave of public enthusiasm to a prominence far beyond which natural ability alone would justify; the other is an Irish pop duo. Ba-dum-tish. Unfair? Of course: Jedward mostly hit the right note. And so the jokes go on.
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Love it David.
Everybody - See you all tomorrow it should be a momentous day.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/11243593/Matt-cartoons.html?frame=3437242
A splendid victory for Democratic Socialism!
Certainly I can't see them offering anything, there won't be a scurried rush to raise the Butchers Apron over Brussels should the polls swing again from In.
The Labour Party: what is the whole bloody point of it? Why is it there? Who is it for? What does it stand for? To what extent should it be driven by the desires of activists and to what extent should it follow the whims of the voting public? What is the shape of Britain that it wants to craft? What strategies is it prepared to undertake to achieve that? What compromises should it make?
The entry of Corbyn destablised the contest: it was apparently impossible to have a frank and honest debate after that, because anybody who faced up to the harder facts (particularly how to get the public on side re public spending, but issues about electability and compromise in general, and owning up to prior mistakes) knew that they'd be seen as Tories or sell-outs.
Rick Perry leaves the Republican race, incredible he ever entered it in the first place.
The next five years of British political history will be one heck of an experience: we will live through it all day-by-day, and it will be exciting. One day we will look back upon it, and we'll hold those strong memories of it for the rest of our lives.
Future generations will read about it with curiosity and interest. And not a little bit of.. WTF?
See link for full details of each round, split by category:
http://labourlist.org/2015/09/labours-mayor-of-london-candidate-result-full-breakdown/
The funny thing is we may never know if Corbyn would have won if it had been Members only.
Suppose he gets 53% overall in the 1st round and wins straight away but only gets say 40% amongst Members. We will never know if he would have won amongst Members only once transfers had taken place as those transfers will never be counted.
This is of course something that it seems the far left in particular seem unable to grasp, as they seem permanently shocked that their packed halls of people really really angry about stuff and sure that socialism and the like is the way forward, does not mean there is a political revolution going on, as GE time shows. So it would not be a surprise if that were the case again, particularly as Corbyn's rise seems little to do with the man himself, hard working though he has been for the cause this summer and well done him for that.
On the other hand, this time they have reached an accord, it seems, with the more moderate left and chosen the same guy, so there is the possibility it is indeed a mini political revolution of sorts.
The point about humour is an interesting one. Cameron's got a decent line in vicious but funny gags on occasion, but hearing him on TMS today he seemed pretty personable in that regard, though no doubt he is pretty relaxed at the moment, but of course there are few areas for politicians to show off some sort of natural humour or warmth at the top level. Ed M is meant to be pretty funny isn't he? I cannot recall many of his prepared gags landing much, although his line about his son saying after the GE that he 'used to be famous' was well delivered, so I can believe he is actually a funny guy in person.
Corbyn? IDK, maybe? He has the 'never changes his opinion' thing which is portrayed as a good and bad thing (consistent and principled vs inflexible and stubborn), but in this summer he has seemed to lack the sort of fiery intensity which would make me think he is entirely without humour if saying the same things.
Corbyn is the Hornby train set, ice-cream maker, latest lego box and scalextric oval all rolled into one for us centre-right political nerds.
Sanna Hey Sanna Ho Sanna
Hey J C, J C won't you smile at me?
Sanna Ho Sanna Hey Superstar
Can't get those lyrics out of my head at the moment
2 years ago we wanted to bomb Assad and help..........ISIL. Now we want to bomb IS to help.....Assad or Al Nusra.
Those who think this will help the FSA do not know the situation. It is very difficult to help an "army" sleeping in 5-star hotels in Istanbul, 1000 kms away.
Back to Yemen, we are finishing off the Houthi. Great. And AQAP will fill the vacuum because no Saudi foot soldiers will go there.
The Pakistanis who have been paid a retainer for 40 years precisely for the defence of Saudi Arabia refused to attack another Muslim country must to the chagrin of the Emiratis and the Saudis.
One Direction
Olly Murs
Jedward
Stacey Solomon
Cher Lloyd
Union J
Ella Henderson
Winners that have achieved anything : -
Little Mix
Leona Lewis (possibly)
Winning the X-Factor does not appear to be a very good outcome. BGT appears to have a slightly better track record for winners but obviously their biggest "star" was Susan Boyle who was also a loser.
You make it sound like it's 1997...
Remind me again when was the last time Labour got a majority - without a war criminal leading the party?
As things stand, I can't see any way for In to actual win this vote. Their lead is too narrow, the emotional arguments for leaving are far too compelling and unless Farage gets to lead the Out campaign, then Out will definitely win.
Things were quite markedly different in Scotland, Independence started massively behind in the polling, Out has very little ground to make up.
What if he brought in 5-10% of the voters who are registered but do not vote ?
If I go on the Telegraph comment section and call UKIP a bunch of tossers, I'll get a reaction and have hit a nerve alright, so what? It doesn't mean anything more.
Why bother trolling on a cross party political site for grown ups? Its time we left this negative crap behind us and moved on in Scotland!
sum up his appeal to the left very well - he stands for a range of policies, puts the case for them politely and attacks nobody. An awful lot of people, not just on the left, like that very much. (In a minor key, a lot of my personal vote in Broxtowe similarly came from being polite to opponents. On the fairly rare occasions that I had a go at someone, I always got negative feedback from supporters.)
He has a nice line in mild chuckles over this and that but they're not exactly jokes, more the sort of thing you get from a self-deprecating professor. He's certainly detached - one of the least emotional people that I know, which isn't necessarily a good thing, but gives a certain armour against some of the wilder accusations (e.g. it is not credible that he shouted abuse at passing soldiers).
A thoughtful colleague this evening (who like me still quite likes Blair) said he voted for Corbyn not because he expected him to become PM but because it was necessary to stop the party's drift to becoming an ersatz Tory party, a little milder and a little more generous but essentially the same thing. He sees it as a resetting exercise to redefine Labour as a left-wing party - not necessarily indefinitely under Corbyn if he proved unpopular. I suspect Corbyn would think that a perfectly reasonable attitude.
I also find it hard to believe the Europeans will want a massive financial centre like the City on their doorstep without being able to have some level of governance so I expect special status will be endowed and in return for some level of regulatory oversight the City (or UK financial services in general) will get full trading rights (EU passport). It makes sense for the EU to have the City in the tent pissing out than have it outside the tent pissing into it.
But it's worse than that, because these new voters would be disproportionately in safe Labour seats anyway (where both the low turnout and the appetite for socialism is).
Jade Goody
The Welsh girl whose ex posted a video of him giving her a pearl necklace.
The non-celeb that they planted into the Celebrity version.
Oh and the Handiman who does DIY shows from the first series.
But I can only actually remember one of their names.
I do think being polite can help an awful lot though. Galloway and his ilk are pretty darn entertaining, but I tend to switch off if someone comes across a little too much as a rude blowhard.
Glare, spotlight, magnifying glass, microscope - this is what the public eye is all about and's what exposes you. Thats what puts their judgement to the test. Little things become big things, like riding your bike down the street.
Bong...
The last time I felt like this was that 1999-2002 period when the world seemed to be changing radically: Britain involved in a war in continental Europe (Kosovo), the euro becoming a shiny metallic reality, the notion of America as the world's first and only Hyperpower being torn upside-down by a few thugs with box-cutters.
The time before that, 1989-92 perhaps? That felt like quite a special time to be living through: the end of the Thatcher era, the fall of communism (though actually Tiananmen was one of the events that left its biggest mark on me: not everywhere was Berlin), the Gulf War, the emergence of a Federal Europe as a realistic fate for Britain not just within my lifetime but potentially within a couple of decades. A lot hung in the balance back then and had different decisions been made back when the Monetary Union seemed such an abstract concept (the arguments about what the Ecu was going to be renamed as were quite something: why they settled on something as bland as the "euro" I don't know) then Britain in 2015 could have been a dramatically different place. I have the same impression now, that fairly abstract decisions - being made at a time when the populace here and elsewhere are throwing a hissy-fit of 1848 proportions - could hold transformative long-term implications.
When they do step out of line - as Switzerland recently did in trying to stop Free Movement of People - they are quickly told to change and they do.
My main nagging fear is that I didn't spend the hours I saved by avoiding those things, on anything much more worthwhile than watching them would have been.
That's a surprisingly deep and pervasive fear. Closely related to the mental heaps of books unread, hobbies unattended, places unvisited, people not-talked-to-for-yonks ...
http://paintwithdonaldtrump.com/
And of course its not hubris from the tories. It's total mystification. Wafer thin majority? Now that is a laugh.
Where are we now? Tories 330 seats; Labour 232.
What lies in the future? 'Events'.
Ed basically got a Corbyn-lite result (in England) - increased majorities in Liverpool and Manchester; swings to the Tories in Swindon and Warwickshire.
Good night all, as the (probable) pre-Corbyn era comes to a close. From this next day onward, as he saves his party, I predict the initials JC will become inextricably linked with salvation.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-clinton-campaign-puts-the-moron-into-oxymoron/2015/09/11/8ba14572-5895-11e5-abe9-27d53f250b11_story.html
If anyone has a cure for them, I am (as the moniker suggests) all ears.
So, if HSBC pack up to China, does all or some of that portion of our paper net debt go to China with it, reducing our potential liability in the next bust? I know the FSCS covers British customers with money in British banks, so government liability in respect of 'The Midland' wouldn't change, but I guess the larger corporate portion of the net debt behaves somewhat differently.
I guess, aside from changes in which government is picking up the tab for uncovered debts, the question is whose sweat ultimately pays down any given bank debt, and does that really change when the headquarters is moved elsewhere.
I don't know whether this has already been noted, so apologies if so: there is a delicious snippet in the detailed mayoral selection figures: Diane Abbot beat Tessa Jowell amongst the three-quidders in every round until she was eliminated in the fourth round.
http://www.boots.com/en/Boots-Mouth-Ulcer-Pastilles-24_1391617/
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/sep/11/sadiq-kham-muslim-leftwinger-london-labour-mayor
"The dramatic first major poll of the 2016 Mayor of London battle today reveals that Tory golden boy Zac Goldsmith would lose to Dame Tessa Jowell - but would battle Sadiq Khan to a dead heat.
Exclusive research by YouGov reveals that former Olympics Minister Dame Tessa is currently ahead of both her Labour and Tory rivals as the choice of Londoners to succeed Boris Johnson.
In a Jowell v Goldsmith run-off, she would win by 57 per cent to 43 per cent after excluding voters who are unsure and therefore unlikely to vote.
If the final was between Khan and Goldsmith, there would be a 50-50 draw. However, with a huge number of undecided voters - some four in 10 - everything is still to play for."
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/zac-goldsmith-would-lose-mayoral-race-to-tessa-jowell-but-finish-neck-and-neck-with-sadiq-khan-poll-10322781.htm
Yes, it is certainly a weekend that will go down in Labour history. I will say no more than that...
Here's how the announcement will play out on Saturday and exactly when you can find out if Labour really will elect Corbyn as its next leader:
10.00am: Corbyn, Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall will arrive at the Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre's "candidates' holding room" in Westminster.
10.30am: The candidates will be informed of the final result but be sworn to secrecy.
11.00am: Special conference opened by chairman of the National Executive Committee Jim Kennedy, results of the deputy leadership contest to be announced first. Tom Watson - another left wing candidate - is the favourite ahead of Stella Creasy, Caroline Flint, Angela Eagle and Ben Bradshaw.
11.30am: Results of the leadership contest announced. New leader to deliver speech.
3.00pm: The new leader will meet with senior management of the party.
http://www.cityam.com/224158/labour-leadership-election-results-what-time-will-winner-be-announced-and-where-can-i-watch
'Still grasping at straws - no way are labour coming back in Scotland - the SNP have taken over their ground just as the Conservatives have in England '
Really ? In England Labour did not do that badly in 2015 - better than 2010 - 1992 - 1987 - 1983 - 1979 and 1959
http://www.newyorker.com/humor/daily-shouts/politically-correct-lord-of-the-flies?intcid=mod-most-popular
http://dailycaller.com/2015/09/11/trumps-video-with-ukraine-conference-is-ridiculously-awkward/
"[Labour] is taking a risk. It’s pursuing an alternative strategy based upon the idea that “if you can’t beat them, change the game”.
This sounds a lot like Nick P's view of the election.
And goodnight all.
Corbyn 1.09 / 1.1
Cooper 12 / 14
Burnham 70 / 110
Kendall 1000
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.103946886