FPT @ Pro_Rata who said "As best can be told, the most recent common ancestor of all humanity lived only around 2000 years ago!"
You have your timeline off by quite a while. The current best scientific estimate for Mitochondrial Eve is 'between 99,000 and 200,000 years ago, most likely in East Africa'; and for Y Chromosomal Adam between 100,000 and 160,000 years ago. These estimates are based on mutation rates of DNA.
No he doesn't. Most recent common ancestor is not "Adam" or "Eve"... And is most likely from North East China or maybe Taiwan.
"Assuming that no genetically isolated human populations remain, the human MRCA may have lived 2,000 to 4,000 years ago. This estimate is based on a non-genetic, mathematical model that assumes random mating and does not take into account important aspects of human population substructure such as assortative mating and historical geographical constraints on interbreeding"
Those are some pretty big assumptions. So, MRCA will have been a lot more recent than Mitochondrial Eve, but given restrictions on travel for many of the smallest and most remote tribes, way longer than the 2000-4000 years that the mathematical model implies.
For Europe, the number is in the 1000-2000 year range:
Not sure if we spotted this survey at the time (late August) - it's a proper survey though of voters generally rather than the selectorate. It would be odd if the trend to Corbyn among the wider electorate was opposite to the trend within the party, so it's another straw in the wind and quite a substantial one. Corbyn leads in pretty much all sections including 2015 Tories (who may have other motives) but especially "other parties" (UKIP/Green, presumably) and women. LibDems marginally prefer Burnham.
Pretty sure we've seen that. It's also contradicted by other polls, which show that Corbyn is deemed unelectable, and viewed as most likely to guide Labour to defeat, etc
That said, the polling is mixed. Corbyn-as=leader doesn't do as badly as one might think, given the onslaught, and Labour are doing OK-ish in recent VI polls (32 to Tories' 38 the other day, for instance).
Indeed I wonder if we might see a polling BOOST for Labour, in the next few weeks and months, thanks to all the attention, and the sheer novelty of this silly but plain speaking Trot at the helm.
This will be the worst outcome for Labour, natch. Corbyn will do well enough in polls in the first two or three years to stay in office. Even though he will always be utterly unelectable. And, slowly, over time, he will poison the Labour brand.
I had a big splutter over that unverified Corbyn £45 fraud story earlier in the day, based on that I already don't buy the smeared peacenik narrative, but let's assume Corbyn does make it to 2020 and there is no killer blow over his 'friends' even as the election campaign completes. Let's also assume that the economics of 2020 are middling. How might he do?
Going to put a finger very high in the air and do this in a similar way to the voter flow analysis that one of the pollsters put out after the election.
Labour start = 31 voters Net gains: 5 previous non-voters - disaffected ex-Labour voters 1-2 Green voters - decent chunk of anti-austerity rather than Eco greens 1 SNP voter - given the SNP fervour difficult to see getting votes back here anything other than a painful process 1 UKIP voter - the balance of 2 flows, some more anti-immigrant Labour will go (many already gone) but a decent sized plain anti-establishment votes will come back, so predict a net, but uneven, gain. = 7-8 new voters gained (the 5 non-voters scale down a bit as they make the electorate bigger)
Net losses: 2 x 2015 Labour voters do not vote 5 x voters switch to Conservative 5 x voters switch to LD = 12 of 31 2015 Labour voters lost
So, on a neutral assumption guess, Corbyn Labour reach GE2020 on about 26% and still by a distance the second largest party.
A breaking the mould scenario that smashes Labour by 2020 is nowhere near the most likely outcome.
Worth noting that on Members only Jowell was in the lead from the first to the fourth round and Khan only narrowly won with the transfers of Abbott's members.
It is thanks to the £3 members that he won comprehensively. Pointer to tomorrow?
The body of the Labour Party was snatched whilst it was asleep. I strongly suggest that if anyone finds a strange pod thing in their garden shed, then they stick a garden fork in it before they go to bed tonight.
FPT @ Pro_Rata who said "As best can be told, the most recent common ancestor of all humanity lived only around 2000 years ago!"
You have your timeline off by quite a while. The current best scientific estimate for Mitochondrial Eve is 'between 99,000 and 200,000 years ago, most likely in East Africa'; and for Y Chromosomal Adam between 100,000 and 160,000 years ago. These estimates are based on mutation rates of DNA.
No he doesn't. Most recent common ancestor is not "Adam" or "Eve"... And is most likely from North East China or maybe Taiwan.
"Assuming that no genetically isolated human populations remain, the human MRCA may have lived 2,000 to 4,000 years ago. This estimate is based on a non-genetic, mathematical model that assumes random mating and does not take into account important aspects of human population substructure such as assortative mating and historical geographical constraints on interbreeding"
Those are some pretty big assumptions. So, MRCA will have been a lot more recent than Mitochondrial Eve, but given restrictions on travel for many of the smallest and most remote tribes, way longer than the 2000-4000 years that the mathematical model implies.
I think Khan will be a bad mayor, after the well known painful decade long mayoralty of Lutfur Rahman, I have a deep distrust towards local muslim politicians.
Why do you think Khan will win the election for London Mayor?
US Presidential: Polling continues to move against Hillary, and she is now below 40% in the national polling for the Dem nod, trailing Carson and Bush in the head to head. As stated last night, all the polling trends on pretty much every metric at both state and national levels are moving against her.
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This also increases the chance of a Richmond Park by-election.
Excellent news!
Lib Dems surging here
It'll be an interesting by-election. If the government, as they should, continue to support Heathrow expansion, then I would think that the LibDems (as the anti-Heathrow party) will nab it.
On the other hand, if there is a reversal (and either Gatwick or something else get the nod), then I think it'll be a Tory hold.
I do not see UKIP or a Corbyn led Labour Party putting up any kind of show in Richmond Park.
Comments
Those are some pretty big assumptions. So, MRCA will have been a lot more recent than Mitochondrial Eve, but given restrictions on travel for many of the smallest and most remote tribes, way longer than the 2000-4000 years that the mathematical model implies.
For Europe, the number is in the 1000-2000 year range:
http://www.nature.com/news/most-europeans-share-recent-ancestors-1.12950
Going to put a finger very high in the air and do this in a similar way to the voter flow analysis that one of the pollsters put out after the election.
Labour start = 31 voters
Net gains:
5 previous non-voters - disaffected ex-Labour voters
1-2 Green voters - decent chunk of anti-austerity rather than Eco greens
1 SNP voter - given the SNP fervour difficult to see getting votes back here anything other than a painful process
1 UKIP voter - the balance of 2 flows, some more anti-immigrant Labour will go (many already gone) but a decent sized plain anti-establishment votes will come back, so predict a net, but uneven, gain.
= 7-8 new voters gained (the 5 non-voters scale down a bit as they make the electorate bigger)
Net losses:
2 x 2015 Labour voters do not vote
5 x voters switch to Conservative
5 x voters switch to LD
= 12 of 31 2015 Labour voters lost
So, on a neutral assumption guess, Corbyn Labour reach GE2020 on about 26% and still by a distance the second largest party.
A breaking the mould scenario that smashes Labour by 2020 is nowhere near the most likely outcome.
I strongly suggest that if anyone finds a strange pod thing in their garden shed, then they stick a garden fork in it before they go to bed tonight.
http://www.cheatsheet.com/view-image/?src=2013/11/Body-Snatchers.jpg&51ae27
http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/10/politics/hillary-clinton-poll-women/index.html
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@lukeakehurst @hopisen @_IanMoss @DPJHodges Corbyn wins on 1st ballot with 53.8% share - just under 229,000 votes