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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One year ago today we were given a reminder that opinion polls are a snapshot not a prediction
A year ago today The Sunday Times published a YouGov poll that had Yes ahead in the Scottish Independence referendum campaign. In the history of Politicalbetting.com no other opinion poll has generated quite so much comment and reaction.
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I think more and more of us are coming to the opinion that the EU is a negative influence on the UK and becoming more so. It doesn't seem in the slightest bit capable of securing its own borders - surely the first priority of government anywhere - as their currency falls and their economy is the only region in the world still not recovered from the last recession. The attitude of their politicians is that the grand project is more important than even their own economies, which as they flounder need the UK to contribute even more to support their basket case of an economy.
I've moved from the wait-and-see column to a definite Leave in the past few months, despite having worked in the EU and elsewhere abroad for perhaps half of my working life. It's clear that there's no Status Quo and no Associate Membership on offer, so it's either full steam ahead or quit while we have the chance
Personally despite being on the side of Remain (though open to persuasion by events) I think it is stupid. Aside from geographical area the UK is a far more powerful and significant economy than the likes of Canada nobody would dream of suggesting that Canada needs to be a part of the USA to survive.
(1) The Eurozone economy is broken and needs integration and fiscal transfers to make it work
(2) That the Eurozone is prepared to vote en bloc to get what they want
(3) That they are prepared to do things that are precisely targeted against the UK (I'm thinking of the FTT)
(4) That Schengen is broken; and
(5) Merkel has no compunction in throwing her weight around to try and impose her will on all EU member states
I can't see why it's in the UK's interests to remain in a dysfunction set-up like that.
It would be great to have a customs union/free trade zone. I could live with associate membership of some form. But we are big and ugly enough to thrive on our own. Bring it on!
Carlos
I had you down as a firm remain.
1. 51/49 at the height of the refugee crisis is not a convincing lead and may indicate that once things settle down again - as they will - Remain has every opportunity to re-establish its lead.
2. Leave has the voting demographic: the elderly and the motivated. Throw in Corbyn Labour explicitly opposed to the deal Cameron negotiates and Remain has a real problem.
Overall, the chances of the UK leaving the EU and then breaking up are surely increasing. What a legacy for Dave and George.
If we leave we should have the courage to leave and to trade with the EU in the same way as we trade with the USA. We should negotiate to have zero tariffs with the EU - not to be a part of the EFTA etc
Meanwhile referenda themselves undermind representative democracy as a concept. We no longer elect MPs to govern us, we elect them to do so except when they are too frightened to do so. And however much HM the Queen tells us to think carefully before we vote, many people will vote with the bile in their hearts.
But it's the direction of travel which bothers me. Remain is not remaining what it is now, which is hardly ideal, though I could probably live with it - just. It's remaining in an institution which wants to go in a direction which I think is (a) wrong for Europe; and (b) wrong for the UK.
While the UK's approach to the EU has been poor for a long time - poor in the sense that it joined too late, from a position of weakness, and has thereafter engaged too little and too late and in an alternately cringing and aggressive manner - there is a lack of good faith on the part of other countries e.g. refusing to take the UK's interests seriously and refusing to understand our perspective. An associate membership is probably best but since Cameron is not going for it it will have to be "Leave" - unless something changes.
If the UK does vote to leave, the jolt to the EU's amour propre will be huge, though. And things could be quite tough in the immediate aftermath. But we should have more self-confidence. I am sure the UK will thrive fine outside the EU. It's done so before and will do so again - provided we have the right leadership here.
And if the vote is to stay "In" but relatively close - much like with Scottish referendum - I don't see how that will settle things. A major country where nearly, say, half the population say they want to leave is not going to be happy and its membership is not going to be a stable one. So there will have to be changes from the EU in any event.
Have they got some evil spite against their fellow citizens ?
It is for this reason I'd oppose eg a referenda on the death penalty. This is a political issue not a constitutional one.
Regarding the poll - by far the most significant features are the strong support shown for Cameron's approach. A most welcome riposte from British public opinion after a week of ridiculous virtue signalling form the Media/FB/Twitter. Who'd have thought they could all have got it so wrong? On the Sky newspaper review this morning one of their idiot presenters rubbished the poll and kept saying 'right-thinking' people thought as he did. What an arrogant tw**!
I find it ironic that each crisis that should show how much we need a supranational organisation such as the migration issue and before that the credit crunch instead shows how dysfunctional and frankly useless the EU is, dominated by Germany who are very far from all knowing or wise.
My own thoughts are that if we could achieve a relationship with the EU modelled on what Switzerland has we should take it.
If the UK stays in some sort of associate membership where we have to implement any EU rules then expect all those rules to be written by the French without our say so. If we are to leave, then lets leave and leave behind any ideas of saying the French without us would get anything right.
However, I found the following interesting: Before the GE, I asked whether there was a chance that Cameron might officially remain neutral in the vote, or even recommend people vote to leave. If he did, how would both his party and the country respond?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3223773/Cameron-told-Merkel-Britain-walk-away-EU-Bombshell-new-biography-reveals-furious-German-leader-slammed-PM-hated-wrecker.html
I would be happy with your position if I thought for one moment that I didn't need my PPE degree to understand it
It's interesting that Dave was in Madrid on Friday telling the Catalans that we are all better together and that if they secede from Spain they'll be out of the EU. I am surprised his comments got so little coverage over here as they certainly showed what he thinks about a possible Brexit.
The GCC countries are very conservative when it comes to taking outsiders, I will never be Emirati and neither will my children even if they are born here. The Red Crescent (Red Cross in Muslim countries) and the government are certainly supporting the refugee camps in Syria itself.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3223773/Cameron-told-Merkel-Britain-walk-away-EU-Bombshell-new-biography-reveals-furious-German-leader-slammed-PM-hated-wrecker.html
Well, the only way to get the best possible renegotiated terms is to be prepared to walk away. But everything I've seen Cameron do does not suggest to me that he is prepared to do that, which is why I'm doubtful that he will get the best terms he could. We'll see.
France may well be dominant in an EU without the UK - though I wonder whether that will be the case given how Germany is behaving. But an EU where a major country and one of its richest chooses to leave will have its self confidence shaken, and how that works itself out is an open question.
On Radio 4, there's some person talking about the migration crisis and blithely assuming that all the people coming here want to be like us and come here for our values. This may be true. But it does not seem to occur to him that this may not be true for all, that some may well want the economically better life but either do not want or do not appreciate that this better life comes from our different values. Nor does it occur to him that some of these people may just want to come here to continue their lives as Syrians in Sweden or wherever rather than turn into Swedes. Nor that if you get a very large number of people turning up with a very different culture, the chances of them absorbing the host country's culture, the pressures to do so are lower.
It's this naivety which, it seems to me, is behind much of the muddled thinking on the whole migration issue.
I'm afraid that I share AnneJGP's comment from the previous thread: "However uncharitable it may be, it seems Europe is getting to the point where pulling up the drawbridge is the only option if we want democracy to live on." It's not just democracy but Western civilization which may be at risk if we invite in very large numbers of people from very different civilizations without taking very clear and firm steps to turn them into Westerners.
But quite a lot comes from the fact that they can play the UK against the French in so many situations giving them a decisive roll. If we were not there to play the trouble maker and free trade protagonist I think the Germans will find it much harder to get their own way. Without the UK Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and the Nordic countries risk being regularly outvoted by the Latin grouping. They really won't want to run that risk if they can possibly help it.
SNP voters in favour of leaving.
We do have a written constitution (e.g. Blackwood, Bagehot, Erskine May, etc).
We just don't have a *codified* constitution
No word on Hamilton so, alas, it seems he starts on pole. Still, let's hope he leaves the handbrake on at the start.
My pre-race piece, with 2 or 5 tips, depending on your perspective, is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/italy-pre-race.html
To get a deal you need to be prepared both to walk away AND to get a deal. If you come across as not finding any deal good enough then you'll get nothing.
Plus Cameron can point to the country and say about a bad deal "not acceptable, the country won't vote for it."
Now i'm more towards out ; like you direction of travel is the single biggest factor.
I think I'm going to be sick..........
I was thinking the opposite way to you for the race, with Rosberg coming past the red cars who most likely had their engines turned up to 11 for qualifying in front of the home fans. The German powered cars also had higher speed trap numbers (221mph!) over the weekend, so the Ferraris could be sitting ducks with DRS for Rosberg and the Williams's behind.
We shall see who's right in six hours' time!
In really, really need Farage to screw things up for out.
(snip)
It's a very fine line for Cameron to tread: he needs to get the best deal he can for the UK without damaging the relationship between the countries. The referendum is only the first step: we still have to deal with the EU countries afterwards, whether we vote to remain in or leave.
It would be easy for him to come out of the negotiations with a deal that persuades the electorate to remain in, but with the other EU countries so peeved that the deal proves hard to enforce afterwards (in fact, that's a danger with this approach anyway). Likewise, he could be so intransigent that when no deal comes, and we vote to leave, and the EU feels no real need to be helpful towards us with regards to the splitting.
He has to show that he's prepared to walk away, but also that he's willing to be a faithful partner. That's difficult.
Leave can certainly be a big tent.
Remain looks like the alamo for Blairites Cameroons and orange bookers.
4 months ago we were reminded that opinion polls can be a load of crap! Just saying.
There are two possibilities to pass Hamilton: off the line (if he has a properly bad start he'll be swamped), and getting a tow through somewhere or other (I forget which bit, but it can happen and the Ferrari drivers will do all they can).
Anyway, we shall see who's right (let's hope it's me
Mr. Felix, indeed. I'm not that interested in this single poll. By itself, it doesn't mean much. If it's sustained across time/pollsters, then it becomes more interesting.
The SNP Blair Cameron and Clegg , with big business , banks.
That will make a lot of people puke.
I think we all live in our own echo chamber to some extent. But I've been surprised by how negative some of the comments from my friends are. Sympathy for the drowned child but a big no to any further large scale immigration. And this is a constituency with a 20,000-plus Labour majority. The Labour politicians must be hearing the same; Mrs Duffy isn't a rarity.
I worry a little about how out of touch some of our media people are. They live in their own bubble and assume they are typical.
The EU is certainly attracting negative publicity too.
My concerns is that if we leave the EU, we'll join the EFTA and get none of the positive social policies. Hopefully an EU referendum will ensure that there's also a referendum on any future similar agreements.
Primarily the eurocrisis which many view as reinforcing the need for integration to me has reinforced national beliefs over European beliefs, not just amongst the national leaders but most especially amongst the electorate. Anecdotally since 2001 I've been debating with a Dutch friend who would make Ken Clarke look like Nigel Farage. Everything for over a decade was all about how Europe is the answer to everything and the only problem in Europe was Britain. However in recent years more and more he views himself Dutch and does not view himself as a compatriot of the Greeks especially.
I think the idea that a United States of Europe coming around where the Dutch, Germans and Greeks are all of the same nation is further away now than it was a few years ago.
Secondly the example of the budget where it wasn't just frozen but cut. Ideally should have gone much further too, but that was a Rubicon crossed in the right direction.
Finally any renegotiation that Cameron negotiates (so long as its not lipstick on a pig) should move the EU reforms in our direction too. It is an initiative for the first time in my memory of reform being led by the UK rather than us trying to block/seek opt-outs from it.
If Out is to have a realistic prospect, it'll need those on the left and right, not just the right.
A splintered series of Out campaigns could have the advantage that Farage could focus on immigration, and others, more leftwing, could refer to the way Germany treated Greece.
A few months ago we PB Tories were scathing Miliband by comparing him to Hollande and now Labour is about to elect a leader that thinks Hollande is too right wing? Seriously? Seriously!?
I seriously think and hope the UK would never do so.
As it is, I wouldn't read too much into that poll.
Plus Cameron can point to the country and say about a bad deal "not acceptable, the country won't vote for it."
Yes - agreed. It was implicit in what I was trying to say. But if Cameron gives the impression - as he appears to - that he wants the UK to stay in the EU regardless, then he's not going to get any sort of deal, good, bad or indifferent.
Instead, the left ended up clinging to the idealism and the few retaining social policies right-wing governments couldn't erode, while the right got more than their "free market" wet dream, especially since they feel the right-wing policies are now so entrenched that they now see the EU as an irrelevant distraction to them ("TINA" and such nonsense).
That's what what Merkel has done - unilaterally rip up the EU rulebook. She might be responding to decades of guilt about her country's Nazi past, but that does not extend to breaking down and sobbing "let them all come in". I'm sorry, but you can't be called a refugee if you put your wife and children's life on the line fleeing from bad dentistry.
The last couple of years' of seem to have left only the big business and metropolitan liberals in favour, with a large number against from both left and right of the political spectrum.
You'd do well to drop such ludicrous language if you don't want to put off anyone with common decency not just the "right on" crowd.
Usually used when the Government of the day can not make a decision as in 1975.
However it always now seems to be used for Constitutional
Change, such as devolution.
Blair might have won a referndum on joining the euro in 97 to 98.
So not a good thing.
Representative democracy is preferable in my opinion in most instances.
As MP`s can use their own judgement in the exercise of their powers, even if their views are not reflective of a majority of voters at that time.
This certainy happened to stop Blair with the Euro.
I'll still probably vote yes because some of the BOO'ers are nigh on racist and that's not a good thing to be basing our membership on..
Truly absurd.
If out wins, the UK gives two years of notice to quit. During that time, compromises will be reached, driven by commercial interests.
And we will finish up with.....some sort of associated status.
Right or wrong immigration fatigue is setting in, according to the poll across the country with the exception of London, people have had enough.
I'm hoping that Geldof's council write to him asking him to house some people on the waiting list until the Syrians arrive.
A poll is a snap-shot, not a prediction, it’s only one poll and a Survation one at that - But what a cracking bunch of numbers for the Tea leaves.
Off Topic - when did Merkel become Jo Brand's twin...!
It will be a close-ish vote when it comes. Though being either in or out will make little difference to the migrant crisis.
Brown and Ed Balls stopped Blair, he would never have got that through the at that time, without the support of the chancellor.
Blairs only hope was a referndum.
He was in no jeopardy from ISIS whatsoever.
"Taking a straw poll in my local bar in the very small farming community where I live in North Italy the majority were in favour of Italy leaving the EU..and also think Cameron has played the migrant crisis absolutely right."
So in the bar where you spend your time they want ALL mmigrants out.......
Present company excepted of course
I'm right of centre, and I've had to hold my nose and vote conservative despite it being home to a fair few homophobes/transphobes. The Innies have racists, homophobes and anti-semites too; you must know that!
Out is not, and should not, be promising any sort of formal "Associated Member Status". But the compromises---probably led by the big German car companies---will produce trading agreements which will leave us in an equivalent position.
Can Out 'promise' what exactly what these agreements will be? Obviously not. But, equally obviously, they will be put in place.
The Leicester fan boards are as ambivalent as the rest of the country on refugees, but really hate the Villa. It may provoke an interesting response.
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/sep/03/english-football-supporters-groups-refugees-welcome-banners
I think people are still very happy to welcome well qualified, hard working immigrants of whatever colour or creed.