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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Predict the winner and first round shares in the LAB leadership ELECTION in PB’s prize competition
Using the bespoke NoJam template you will need to enter vote shares down to decimal points for four contenders as well as naming the overall winner of the election. The prize will go to the person with the smallest overall error who has correctly named the winner.
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http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/192093/GfK-Report-EU-Referendum-Question-Testing-2015-WEB.pdf
Cameron to rework question on EU.
He also needs to restore purdah.
7/2 Leave
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/638693490881380352
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jan/28/british-dream-europe-african-citizens
The UK government has been silent about how we address this problem.
She's mad(if true)this is what Germany proberly did under Merkel and now we have a immigration crisis with most heading to soft touch Germany.
Our political elite haven't a clue.
The referendum hasn't clicked into public consciousness yet. Given that concern about immigration is now at an all time high, the EU wants us to take more, plus the fact that the standard EU response to even very modest renegotiation requests from the UK is to tell us to fuck off, I can see it being very close.
(1) to put up our borders and turn everyone away, harden our hearts against even to the most desperate of cases, refuse to pick up drowning people etc; or
(2) let everyone in, regardless of whether they're genuine refugees and regardless of the problems it will cause us and regardless of whether this is what people in European democracies want.
I think the latter is untenable. So if we can't find some interim solution involving the Arab/Muslim world taking responsibility for its own problems then it will have to be the former.
To reply to Richard N and other critics of managed centres: the incentive for Turkey, Tunisia, etc. would have to be money - we would make it worth their while with substantial foreign aid both for running the camps and for building infrastructure and other development - and yes, divert foreign aid money for this and get wider public support for it. Every country has a price - if we were offered sufficient billions we'd set up some refugee camps too, and Tunisia would not expect billions. An expensive solution? Yes - but so is doing nothing. A total solution? No - however good the camps, many will try for Europe anyway. But if we're offering an alternative to "send them back to be killed" or "let them drown", it will be easier to take a tough line with illegal migrants who are caught. (And we should start by substantial aid for countries who already have lots, like Lebanon.)
But in the long run, the problem is NOT SOLUBLE, so don't waste time pointing out that each individual measure won't really solve the issue. Every solution has snags and limits. People will move where the best life is, by hook or by crook. All we can do is try to manage it
* The CBI (too posh)
* The UK government (too biased)
* Anybody from Europe (too foreign)
* Anybody who's ever been to Europe (too common)
* The BBC (too metropolitan elite)
* Nigel Farage (too Farage)
Organisations that the "OUT"s wish to allow speaking on the EU referendum are:
* Anybody advocating an "out"
* Rupert Murdoch
* Vladimir Putin
Then another 10 join them no doubt, and so the craziness spirals out of control.
A question for Yvette Cooper, though:
Where does this wonderfully round number of 10,000 per month come from? How did you work it out Ms Cooper?
Alternatively, you can see it directly here:
http://show.nojam.com/a2sY/summary.php
http://theorkneyvole.com/2015/09/01/stv-to-televise-alistair-carmichael-court-hearing-live-in-uk-tv-first-scotland-news/
This country is already struggling with what we are taking now,look at Simon danczuk complaining about the number of asylum seekers that Rochdale are taking.
Pretty obvious really given how every thread descends into PB LibDems v the rest :-)
So renting a few dozen square miles on the Libyan coast, surrounding it with serious razor wire guarded by EU military to keep the inhabitants safe (the Germans could do this one if they were given the day shift, even maybe the Belgians) and building a prefab city inside. What would that cost? I don't know maybe £10 billion, plus running costs of £1 billion a year? Even if it is ten times that, it will be less than the cost of dealing with the migrants once they hit EU territory.
Not only that but it would then give a facility to make naval patrols actually worth doing. Instead of acting as a ferry service the navy ships could return the migrants to a safe haven on Libyan shores.
To be honest your allegatiom that anyone wanting an out dislikes foreigners is rather childish.
Once people are citizens then the only way of dealing with it is to remove the right of free movement. That seems to be politically unviable but if citizenship is linked with free movement then it is surely incumbent (and indeed implicit in the right) that the acquisition of citizenship should have a very high bar indeed.
In reality asylum and migration seem to be turning into one and the same. This causes problems because people feel as if their heartstringss are being pulled to let in poor refugees when in reality they may be nothing of the kind and and will be here forever. Cooper was an example this morning of someone doing just that.
Christ,she's mad.
If people want to be safe from war in Syria, Tunisia or Turkey are fine. They want to get to Europe not to be safe but to have a better life. Perfectly understandable. But these are not then refugees or asylum seekers. They are migrants and we should treat them as such.
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/stephen-twigg-apologises-after-mistakenly-7693284
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/638703011926286336
Never.
But my question still remains: what then happens to the 90% (or whatever the number ends up as) who are refused entry?
Like I keep repeating,our political elite haven't a clue.
Teetotal ,mysoginist, religious nutters with a penchant for explosives and century old grudges, they'd fit right in.
Then Jezza can hand it all over to the Republic.
So she has 3 votes.
Meanwhile, to put things into context, here's a nice chart via Faisal Islam showing who goes where:
Faisal Islam @faisalislam · 6m6 minutes ago
graphic from @ReutersFlasseur on migrant crisis: UK does not register as a "receiving country" http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/migrants/index.html#section-reuters-section-1 …
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-34113080
By pretending that we still care about "genuine" asylum seekers we end up making ever more ridiculous and meaningless distinctions to exclude many, many people who are in genuine hardship but who we don't want. Nick is right to say there are no solutions to this.
When we ignore the meaningless distinction we can say that last year we took a net 330K people into our country. If we want to take more from Syria or wherever we need to work out where we can take less from.
I think it's just other people see the issue from a different angle than you do, an angle you don't accept or dismiss as media hysteria.
Let's not set numbers - 16%
A small quota (so agreeing with Farage) - 21%
Britain should not be accepting any - 63%
Of course the government is silent on this problem. It can only be solved by our leaving the EU or by the EU giving up on the idea of free movement of people. The latter is never going to happen and the former is never going to happen if Cameron and the Establishment can help it. HMG's only recourse on this issue is to say nothing and hope not too many people find out about it.
What do you mean by free movement of people? I think most of us would have interpreted this along similar lines a short while ago but who knows where the immigrant crisis will take us now and our interpretation with it. Plainly the great mass of immigrants now loose in the Schengen area have forfeited any refugee status by not registering as refugees when first safe. They all seem to want to go where they want to go, that to my mind makes them economic migrants or worse. Staying out of Schengen now looks extremely far sighted even though the nincompoops who have governed us over the last two decades have played the hand very badly (I feel that's a bit too kind).
There is much discussion here about what to do about this crisis. It is not our problem, it is a Schengen problem despite "Lost Her Marbles" Merkel saying it's an EU problem. Cameron should tell her that truth. We will do our bit for genuine refugees (and you can be sure that those purporting to be genuine refugees will have the ID to prove it if not the case) but we will make our own mind up about the others. We have the top hand here, let's play it for all it's worth and not whimper behind any IN/OUT consequences. Cameron - man or mouse?
Failing this, I agree that silence is the next best option
You think you're not given to hyperventilation?
Just asking :-)
O/T Herself has just come home from shopping and opened her post, which included the first "pay chit" of her pension that was paid for the first time today. She was very happy but almost immediately started talking about what life insurance we have and what survivor's benefits my own pension plan carries. Perhaps a live in food taster might be over the top but if anything sudden happens to me I hope someone here will have a quiet word with the authorities.
More than 2,300 people from Serbia asked for asylum in Germany in July.
According to German officials, 90 per cent are Roma motivated mainly by economic factors.
http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/germany-to-return-asylum-seekers-to-serbia-08-21-2015
Look, I understand that this is a very difficult issue and that there are no solutions, easy, short term or otherwise. But "I want" is not a good basis for public policy. Loads of Syrians and Lebanese and Libyans and Sudanese and innumerable other people want to live in Europe. Just because they want it does not mean that they should get it. Currently the response from politicians here and in other countries seems to be based on responding to those amongst the migrants who either shout the loudest or have the most money and can get here the easiest. That is not tenable and not fair, not least to the people of Europe who should have first claim on the affections of the European political class and, secondly, it is not fair to those genuinely persecuted groups in the Middle East to whom we should be giving asylum because they now have no alternative whereas other groups do.
Since we cannot - and in my view should not - let in unlimited numbers, then the only real questions are where those limits should be drawn and how to enforce them.
As a general point of principle, I am strongly in favour of trying to help refugees in their locality rather than accept untold asylum seekers. I expressed that view strongly in Christmas 2013 on here in relation to Syria and got roundly abused for my pains.
Because the western countries did not do this effectively (Britain can hold its head up high, it did make the effort), we now have huge waves of asylum seekers from Syria. We cannot simply send them home.
We (by which I mean the western countries as a whole) should still look to help Syrians on the ground and there is much more we could do. But we also have to do something with those who have come. We have to take our share.
In future, we need to be clearer sighted about offering support in the locality. And prevention is worth much more than cure.
However, the political and military conditions have to be right, and currently Syria, to take one example, is a much a trickier proposition.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3216507/Why-Dave-banned-anti-EU-campaigners-asks-ANDREW-PIERCE.html
All the other parties are allowing them. What the hell is wrong with the Tory leadership? I thought we were supposed to be having an open and fair debate? But now they feel Tory activists can't be allowed to hear the Brexit arguments, in case they form the wrong conclusion?
No wonder some people are so keen to let them all in
Hmm. Tricky contest. Cheers to Mr. Hopkins, William Hill and Mr. Smithson for running it.
Presumably the predictions from Labour supporters on PB are a good indication of the actual result.
Discuss voodoo poll.