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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Predict the winner and first round shares in the LAB leader

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  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    watford30 said:

    According to Plato,Yvette cooper want's ten thousand Syrian refugees a month,I thought it was a one off.

    She's mad(if true)this is what Germany proberly did under Merkel and now we have a immigration crisis with most heading to soft touch Germany.

    Our political elite haven't a clue.

    Cooper is suggesting that every town, local council, whatever, takes 10 Syrian families.

    Then another 10 join them no doubt, and so the craziness spirals out of control.
    How big's a Syrian family?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,105
    iSTM that the only real comparison we have for scale is post-WW2.

    My take is that *then* most people *wanted* to go back home.

    This time that is a difference.

    Which suggests that keeping the population in the region is critical.

    Also, Schengen Delenda Est.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,714
    JEO said:

    I completely despair at my own party sometimes. They've banned a moderate Out group from having a stall at the party conference:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3216507/Why-Dave-banned-anti-EU-campaigners-asks-ANDREW-PIERCE.html

    All the other parties are allowing them. What the hell is wrong with the Tory leadership? I thought we were supposed to be having an open and fair debate? But now they feel Tory activists can't be allowed to hear the Brexit arguments, in case they form the wrong conclusion?

    To be fair, it is a group linked to UKIP.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    dr_spyn said:

    Disraeli said:

    I perfectly understand the compassionate desire to accept Assylum seekers into the UK. It's something that we have always done, are doing now, and I hope always will do.

    A question for Yvette Cooper, though:
    Where does this wonderfully round number of 10,000 per month come from? How did you work it out Ms Cooper?

    Her Spads were playing darts, and plucked the number out of the air.
    That would take an awfully long time. Don't they have better things to do?
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Sean_F said:

    JEO said:

    I completely despair at my own party sometimes. They've banned a moderate Out group from having a stall at the party conference:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3216507/Why-Dave-banned-anti-EU-campaigners-asks-ANDREW-PIERCE.html

    All the other parties are allowing them. What the hell is wrong with the Tory leadership? I thought we were supposed to be having an open and fair debate? But now they feel Tory activists can't be allowed to hear the Brexit arguments, in case they form the wrong conclusion?

    To be fair, it is a group linked to UKIP.
    There's one UKIP founder and one Tory founder.
  • Went for Corbyn. Then checked and found that only 3-4 had gone for someone else [one brave soul went for Kendall].
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    So how many immigrants does Mrs Balls and her husband intend to accommodate in their two houses?

    Re: the PB Poll: of the 77 who have responded, 31.5% voted Labour at the GE, 27.4% Cons; LD 15.1% ; UKIP 6.8%, Green: 6.8%; Private/other 12.3%
  • Mr. W, individual countries within Shengen are adopting wildly different approaches. What happens when the German-bound hordes are given leave to stay, and then go to the Netherlands, which is less welcoming?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Does every Council in the UK really have ten spare habitable houses ,at least 20 new schoolplaces, enough Doctors,Translators etc.I thought the country was hanging in rags with not enough schools, doctors, thousands of homeless, thousands of food banks..at least that is what Yvette and her buddies have been screaming for the last five years.

    How many houses does she have?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,105

    Mr. W, individual countries within Shengen are adopting wildly different approaches. What happens when the German-bound hordes are given leave to stay, and then go to the Netherlands, which is less welcoming?

    Indeed. Country by country.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    watford30 said:

    Plato said:

    And when is over, over?

    Never.

    Plato has misread Cooper, I think - she has said we could take in 10,000 refugees in a month to address the immediate crisis, not that we should do so every month forever. Again it's not a solution because there aren't any solutions, but it's a small contribution and would be better than merely muttering in our beards: "That won't work...no that won't work...no, that's no good..."

    10,000 largely aggressive young men a month - a sure fire recipe for disaster as we import the ME's problems to northern Europe. Just wait until the various long held animosities and conflicts boil over here.
    "10,000 largely aggressive young men a month..."

    No wonder some people are so keen to let them all in
    A quick bootcamp and a bit of weapons training and we have a Foreign Legion to take on ISIS; Cannon fodder, ISIS gone and a place to settle refugees sorted - problem solved
  • Mr. Foxinsox, you are Ed Miliband and I claim an 8' block of engraved limestone.

    That's a lovely theory, and, I suspect, utterly at odds with reality.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    So after 12 months of a cooper government,this country would have taken a extra one hundred and twenty thousand Syrian refugees,does she say if rest of the world asylum cases will be affected in numbers.

    Christ,she's mad.

    She's desperate.
  • JEO said:

    I completely despair at my own party sometimes. They've banned a moderate Out group from having a stall at the party conference:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3216507/Why-Dave-banned-anti-EU-campaigners-asks-ANDREW-PIERCE.html

    All the other parties are allowing them. What the hell is wrong with the Tory leadership? I thought we were supposed to be having an open and fair debate? But now they feel Tory activists can't be allowed to hear the Brexit arguments, in case they form the wrong conclusion?

    Hell would freeze over before the Tories let Aaron Banks anywhere near their conference after his antics last year.

    Most Tories would tell him to f*ck right off, so they are doing him a favour.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Nicola Sturgeon set out the Scottish government's legislation for the coming year as well as its main goals for the future.

    New measures include a national system of standardised assessment in P1, P4, P7 and S3.

    Ms Sturgeon said this would bring consistency to the assessment of literacy and numeracy.

    The legislative programme will see eight new bills introduced. They are:

    Abusive Behaviour and Sexual Harm Bill
    Bankruptcy Consolidation Bill
    Budget Bill
    Burial and Cremation Bill
    Lobbying Bill
    Private Tenancies Bill
    Scottish Elections (dates) Bill
    Scottish Fiscal Commission Bill

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34108173
  • Mr. Eagles, what did he do? Did he start an "I love Mark Reckless" fan club?
  • On topic thanks to Mark and Graham for this
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Mr. Foxinsox, you are Ed Miliband and I claim an 8' block of engraved limestone.

    That's a lovely theory, and, I suspect, utterly at odds with reality.

    It is my own "modest proposal"!
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Plato has misread Cooper, I think - she has said we could take in 10,000 refugees in a month to address the immediate crisis, not that we should do so every month forever. Again it's not a solution because there aren't any solutions, but it's a small contribution and would be better than merely muttering in our beards: "That won't work...no that won't work...no, that's no good..."

    I think muttering in beards is much better than saying something bloody stupid. You could pass that advice on to JC
  • Financier said:


    Re: the PB Poll: of the 77 who have responded, 31.5% voted Labour at the GE, 27.4% Cons; LD 15.1% ; UKIP 6.8%, Green: 6.8%; Private/other 12.3%

    I can't stand this hard right circle jerk of a website.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651

    isam said:

    watford30 said:

    Plato said:

    And when is over, over?

    Never.

    Plato has misread Cooper, I think - she has said we could take in 10,000 refugees in a month to address the immediate crisis, not that we should do so every month forever. Again it's not a solution because there aren't any solutions, but it's a small contribution and would be better than merely muttering in our beards: "That won't work...no that won't work...no, that's no good..."

    10,000 largely aggressive young men a month - a sure fire recipe for disaster as we import the ME's problems to northern Europe. Just wait until the various long held animosities and conflicts boil over here.
    "10,000 largely aggressive young men a month..."

    No wonder some people are so keen to let them all in
    A quick bootcamp and a bit of weapons training and we have a Foreign Legion to take on ISIS; Cannon fodder, ISIS gone and a place to settle refugees sorted - problem solved
    Isn't that the Roman solution? You had to fight for the Roman Empire against the barbarians and earn your citizenship. If it helps protect the remnants of that glorious empire so much the better, though the temple at Palmyra has been confirmed as destroyed, sadly.
  • Mr. Paris, 'circle jerk' is so working class. I think you mean an 'onanists' oval'.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Financier said:


    Re: the PB Poll: of the 77 who have responded, 31.5% voted Labour at the GE, 27.4% Cons; LD 15.1% ; UKIP 6.8%, Green: 6.8%; Private/other 12.3%

    I can't stand this hard right circle jerk of a website.
    Yes. Not too far off the national voting figures if those keeping private are "secret pb Tories"
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    I'm getting to the point I wouldn't mind a military coup.

    Putin would sort it!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,921
    edited September 2015

    Mr. Eagles, what did he do? Did he start an "I love Mark Reckless" fan club?

    Yes, he was the much hyped Tory 'defector' on the day of Dave's conference speech last year, that so nearly destabilised the Tory conference and nearly made Ed Miliband Prime Minister.

    Aaron Banks = Treacherous rat snake
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    watford30 said:

    Plato said:

    And when is over, over?

    Never.

    Plato has misread Cooper, I think - she has said we could take in 10,000 refugees in a month to address the immediate crisis, not that we should do so every month forever. Again it's not a solution because there aren't any solutions, but it's a small contribution and would be better than merely muttering in our beards: "That won't work...no that won't work...no, that's no good..."

    10,000 largely aggressive young men a month - a sure fire recipe for disaster as we import the ME's problems to northern Europe. Just wait until the various long held animosities and conflicts boil over here.
    "10,000 largely aggressive young men a month..."

    No wonder some people are so keen to let them all in
    A quick bootcamp and a bit of weapons training and we have a Foreign Legion to take on ISIS; Cannon fodder, ISIS gone and a place to settle refugees sorted - problem solved
    Isn't that the Roman solution? You had to fight for the Roman Empire against the barbarians and earn your citizenship. If it helps protect the remnants of that glorious empire so much the better, though the temple at Palmyra has been confirmed as destroyed, sadly.
    Yes. Or Starship Troopers.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    JEO said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well Europe has a number of offshore places which could be used: St Helena, the Falklands, South Georgia, Reunion etc.

    OK, fine (although it's a very different suggestion from the original proposal of camps in countries nearer the source of the migration).

    But my question still remains: what then happens to the 90% (or whatever the number ends up as) who are refused entry?
    Deport them to their most likely country of origin.
    Evidently they all come from Syria, at least that's what the BBC says
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well Europe has a number of offshore places which could be used: St Helena, the Falklands, South Georgia, Reunion etc.

    OK, fine (although it's a very different suggestion from the original proposal of camps in countries nearer the source of the migration).

    But my question still remains: what then happens to the 90% (or whatever the number ends up as) who are refused entry?
    We have occasional pb hysteria days. Today is one of those days. If you were to believe pb's paleo-conservatives, kippers and fellow travellers, you'd think that the barbarians were at the gate.

    Meanwhile, to put things into context, here's a nice chart via Faisal Islam showing who goes where:

    Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam · 6m6 minutes ago
    graphic from @ReutersFlasseur on migrant crisis: UK does not register as a "receiving country" http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/migrants/index.html#section-reuters-section-1

    So in other words you've convinced no-one.
    We're in tertiary stage hysteria, where facts are dismissed out of hand and nonsense is treated as gospel. I'm not expecting reasoned argument to get through the hyperventilation.
    Better to panic on the prospect than after the event? Isn't that what's happening with JC and I didn't notice you standing off.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well Europe has a number of offshore places which could be used: St Helena, the Falklands, South Georgia, Reunion etc.

    OK, fine (although it's a very different suggestion from the original proposal of camps in countries nearer the source of the migration).

    But my question still remains: what then happens to the 90% (or whatever the number ends up as) who are refused entry?
    We have occasional pb hysteria days. Today is one of those days. If you were to believe pb's paleo-conservatives, kippers and fellow travellers, you'd think that the barbarians were at the gate.

    Meanwhile, to put things into context, here's a nice chart via Faisal Islam showing who goes where:

    Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam · 6m6 minutes ago
    graphic from @ReutersFlasseur on migrant crisis: UK does not register as a "receiving country" http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/migrants/index.html#section-reuters-section-1

    So in other words you've convinced no-one.
    We're in tertiary stage hysteria, where facts are dismissed out of hand and nonsense is treated as gospel. I'm not expecting reasoned argument to get through the hyperventilation.
    Would you mind pointing out the 'hysteria' comments? I only see measured disagreements with you, but perhaps I am missing something.

    For what it's worth, I did not see your arguments about addressing the problems in the locality, but I agree that has to be the sensible approach.
  • Perusing the summary of the competition, mine are pretty close to the average. The largest difference is that I have Cooper ahead of Burnham. It'll be interesting to see who finishes ahead (as well as whether or not Corbyn actually does win).
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I've YC over AB too.

    Perusing the summary of the competition, mine are pretty close to the average. The largest difference is that I have Cooper ahead of Burnham. It'll be interesting to see who finishes ahead (as well as whether or not Corbyn actually does win).

  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    JEO said:

    Deport them to their most likely country of origin.

    Why would that be any easier than it is at the moment?
    Right now we allow a very broad interpretation of humans rights that should be narrowed significantly. We should also stop the mentality of thinking "this person has destroyed their passport so we can't deport them anywhere". We need to ask them where they are from, or if they refuse to tell, judge them on language. If we still can't tell, Libya seems like the most likely destination they've passed through.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited September 2015

    JEO said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well Europe has a number of offshore places which could be used: St Helena, the Falklands, South Georgia, Reunion etc.

    OK, fine (although it's a very different suggestion from the original proposal of camps in countries nearer the source of the migration).

    But my question still remains: what then happens to the 90% (or whatever the number ends up as) who are refused entry?
    Deport them to their most likely country of origin.
    Evidently they all come from Syria, at least that's what the BBC says
    Can or should Europe take 4 to 5 million Syrian refugees,it sounds like our political elite like Merkel wants us to.

    The best strategy is for most of these Syrian refugees to stay closer to home like refugee camps on the borders of syria or neighbouring Muslim countries.

    Sorry to sound a harsh basta*d,but that's proberly years of being sh!t on by successive governments.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    JEO said:

    I completely despair at my own party sometimes. They've banned a moderate Out group from having a stall at the party conference:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3216507/Why-Dave-banned-anti-EU-campaigners-asks-ANDREW-PIERCE.html

    All the other parties are allowing them. What the hell is wrong with the Tory leadership? I thought we were supposed to be having an open and fair debate? But now they feel Tory activists can't be allowed to hear the Brexit arguments, in case they form the wrong conclusion?

    Hell would freeze over before the Tories let Aaron Banks anywhere near their conference after his antics last year.

    Most Tories would tell him to f*ck right off, so they are doing him a favour.
    What did he do? Other than dare to give money to another party? If Labour let him in, we can certainly do the same.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,844
    England should start considering accepting refugees when the population density of all other Schengen countries reaches that of ours.

    Schengen will be long dead way before that ever comes to pass.
  • Ditto. - Also Kendall in single figures – which was probably too generous :lol:
    Plato said:

    I've YC over AB too.

    Perusing the summary of the competition, mine are pretty close to the average. The largest difference is that I have Cooper ahead of Burnham. It'll be interesting to see who finishes ahead (as well as whether or not Corbyn actually does win).

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,844
    JEO said:

    JEO said:

    I completely despair at my own party sometimes. They've banned a moderate Out group from having a stall at the party conference:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3216507/Why-Dave-banned-anti-EU-campaigners-asks-ANDREW-PIERCE.html

    All the other parties are allowing them. What the hell is wrong with the Tory leadership? I thought we were supposed to be having an open and fair debate? But now they feel Tory activists can't be allowed to hear the Brexit arguments, in case they form the wrong conclusion?

    Hell would freeze over before the Tories let Aaron Banks anywhere near their conference after his antics last year.

    Most Tories would tell him to f*ck right off, so they are doing him a favour.
    What did he do? Other than dare to give money to another party? If Labour let him in, we can certainly do the same.
    Labour are letting Jezza in. As leader. Just because one party loses its marbles...
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well Europe has a number of offshore places which could be used: St Helena, the Falklands, South Georgia, Reunion etc.

    OK, fine (although it's a very different suggestion from the original proposal of camps in countries nearer the source of the migration).

    But my question still remains: what then happens to the 90% (or whatever the number ends up as) who are refused entry?
    We have occasional pb hysteria days. Today is one of those days. If you were to believe pb's paleo-conservatives, kippers and fellow travellers, you'd think that the barbarians were at the gate.

    Meanwhile, to put things into context, here's a nice chart via Faisal Islam showing who goes where:

    Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam · 6m6 minutes ago
    graphic from @ReutersFlasseur on migrant crisis: UK does not register as a "receiving country" http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/migrants/index.html#section-reuters-section-1

    So in other words you've convinced no-one.
    We're in tertiary stage hysteria, where facts are dismissed out of hand and nonsense is treated as gospel. I'm not expecting reasoned argument to get through the hyperventilation.
    This is probably the price of having 8 million foreign born here now. It's not the 4000 at Calais, or "Ms Cooper's 10K" (per month or per year), it's the increasing realisation of those who are already legally here that there appears to be no end to the numbers our politicians decide they want to let in.

    We are currently effectively having to, generate electricity, provide gas, water, roads, rails, schools, hospitals, and language services each year for a new city about the size of Southampton/Coventry/Nottingham etc and have been doing so for years with no apparent end in sight. All this before we mention pressure on housing, wage rates and just the sheer change parts (generally the less well off parts too) of the existing population are having to put up with. It's migration fatigue. Sadly, however deserving Syrians are in the main (beyond doubt), the likes of Ms Cooper should be looking in the mirror and reflecting that the vast increases we've had since the mid 90's are now playing their part in current feeling. How many is "enough", given demand to live in W Europe as opposed to the Sahel, or poor bits of the M East is potentially nigh on limitless?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2015

    England should start considering accepting refugees when the population density of all other Schengen countries reaches that of ours.

    Schengen will be long dead way before that ever comes to pass.

    Merkel doesn't seem to understand that if you publicly announce you expect to take in 800,000 refugees the reality will be that a lot more than that will actually arrive.
  • watford30 said:

    According to Plato,Yvette cooper want's ten thousand Syrian refugees a month,I thought it was a one off.

    She's mad(if true)this is what Germany proberly did under Merkel and now we have a immigration crisis with most heading to soft touch Germany.

    Our political elite haven't a clue.

    Cooper is suggesting that every town, local council, whatever, takes 10 Syrian families.

    Then another 10 join them no doubt, and so the craziness spirals out of control.
    How big's a Syrian family?
    According to the UNHCR registration database, the average family size is
    4.5. However, an inter-agency nutrition assessment indicated a higher
    average family size of 6.2 people http://www.mapaction.org/component/mapcat/download/2924.html?fmt=pdf

    see Page 6
  • JEO said:

    Right now we allow a very broad interpretation of humans rights that should be narrowed significantly. We should also stop the mentality of thinking "this person has destroyed their passport so we can't deport them anywhere". We need to ask them where they are from, or if they refuse to tell, judge them on language. If we still can't tell, Libya seems like the most likely destination they've passed through.

    That doesn't require setting up offshore centres, does it? It's a completely separate question.

    There's also a further complication which is that the country you deport them to might simply refuse to take them. Then what?
  • JEO said:

    JEO said:

    I completely despair at my own party sometimes. They've banned a moderate Out group from having a stall at the party conference:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3216507/Why-Dave-banned-anti-EU-campaigners-asks-ANDREW-PIERCE.html

    All the other parties are allowing them. What the hell is wrong with the Tory leadership? I thought we were supposed to be having an open and fair debate? But now they feel Tory activists can't be allowed to hear the Brexit arguments, in case they form the wrong conclusion?

    Hell would freeze over before the Tories let Aaron Banks anywhere near their conference after his antics last year.

    Most Tories would tell him to f*ck right off, so they are doing him a favour.
    What did he do? Other than dare to give money to another party? If Labour let him in, we can certainly do the same.
    As I said below, it was the timing and the manner of his behaviour that irked so many Tories, including many Eurosceptics.

    His actions was designed to inflict maximum damage to the Tory Party.

    No wonder Labour are welcoming him with open arms to their conference.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2015
    JEO said:

    JEO said:

    I completely despair at my own party sometimes. They've banned a moderate Out group from having a stall at the party conference:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3216507/Why-Dave-banned-anti-EU-campaigners-asks-ANDREW-PIERCE.html

    All the other parties are allowing them. What the hell is wrong with the Tory leadership? I thought we were supposed to be having an open and fair debate? But now they feel Tory activists can't be allowed to hear the Brexit arguments, in case they form the wrong conclusion?

    Hell would freeze over before the Tories let Aaron Banks anywhere near their conference after his antics last year.

    Most Tories would tell him to f*ck right off, so they are doing him a favour.
    What did he do? Other than dare to give money to another party? If Labour let him in, we can certainly do the same.

    Don’t be daft, Reckless and Aaron Banks where the duo responsible for a coordinated attempt to derail last years Tory Conference. – twas the right decision IMHO.
  • As I said below, it was the timing and the manner of his behaviour that irked so many Tories, including many Eurosceptics.

    His actions was designed to inflict maximum damage to the Tory Party.

    No wonder Labour are welcoming him with open arms to their conference.

    He's also a prize berk.
  • Mr. JS, may well be another lingering legacy of WWII guilt.

    Which, ironically, is also leading Merkel to try and dictate migration policy to most of Europe.
  • I'm not sure what % of what Cooper says she actually believes, she tilts her head on one side, looks concerned and considers the least controversial thing to say. So when she talks about 10000 people each month does she mean it or believe its a vote winner?

    If its the latter she's mad.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,844
    AndyJS said:

    England should start considering accepting refugees when the population density of all other Schengen countries reaches that of ours.

    Schengen will be long dead way before that ever comes to pass.

    Merkel doesn't seem to understand that if you publicly announce you expect to take in 800,000 refugees the reality will be that a lot more than that will actually arrive.
    Yeah. Nobody has yet said why the first 800,000 have any better rights than the next 8,000,000. Other than survival of the fittest. How very Germanic....
  • Perusing the summary of the competition, mine are pretty close to the average. The largest difference is that I have Cooper ahead of Burnham. It'll be interesting to see who finishes ahead (as well as whether or not Corbyn actually does win).

    I suspect it's very tight - fwiw my view is that Cooper will beat Burnham if she gets the chance to - i.e. if Corbyn scores <50% Kendall's transfers will see Yvette over the line (and quite possibly JC too, based on non-transfers and a few LK-JC'ers). In a way that might be better for Labour than it going to a third round where Corbyn might win 60-40.
  • Mr. 63, little tells people have can be interesting to observe. Politicians have lots (I say to you/look/let me tell you etc).

    When I had a weird hour or two 'working' for HMRC (I was pretending to be interviewed to give people who would later be conducting job interviews practice) and found a question difficult to answer, the slow sip of water worked well to give me time to answer.

    Channel 4 stream has started (it's up on Youtube).
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Time for some more news on Corbyn - http://hurryupharry.org/2015/09/01/jeremy-corbyn-lobbied-for-a-convicted-terrorist-as-governor-for-lmu/.

    Mind you, LMU is a university in the same way that I'm a marathon runner.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,402
    BBC Top read story is a gem:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-34115350

    The woman had gone to use the toilet ahead of the opening of the Newlyn Fish Festival in Cornwall.

    Harbour master Rob Parsons said she must have "thought she had teleported" when she came out of the toilet in a new location.

    But the best bit is here:

    He said it was an easy mistake to make as drivers "go in through the back entrance" to pick up the toilet.

    He said: "It does happen quite a bit to be honest - I've done it a few times."
  • Burnham bleating about language like 'swam of migrants', describing it as dog-whistle politics.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited September 2015

    I'm not sure what % of what Cooper says she actually believes, she tilts her head on one side, looks concerned and considers the least controversial thing to say. So when she talks about 10000 people each month does she mean it or believe its a vote winner?

    If its the latter she's mad.

    She's hoping to win some votes. Using a specific number implies controlled immigration rather than a free for all, and it's a high enough figure to appeal to the hand wringers without being considered excessive. All nonsense of course, but Cooper's desperate.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,392

    So when she talks about 10000 people each month does she mean it or believe its a vote winner?

    If its the latter she's mad.

    I'd advise Yvette to avoid the Daily Mail website this afternoon, her suggestion has gone down like a lead balloon with white van man.
  • Plato said:
    Every time I see the four together, Frankie Boyle’s brilliantly funny quote pops into my head.

    ‘Every photo of the candidates looks like the staff room of a failing comprehensive feigning amusement at being photobombed by the janitor.’

  • glwglw Posts: 10,392

    Burnham bleating about language like 'swam of migrants', describing it as dog-whistle politics.

    He should have a word with Corbyn about the use of "tragedy" and "some of".
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    watford30 said:

    According to Plato,Yvette cooper want's ten thousand Syrian refugees a month,I thought it was a one off.

    She's mad(if true)this is what Germany proberly did under Merkel and now we have a immigration crisis with most heading to soft touch Germany.

    Our political elite haven't a clue.

    Cooper is suggesting that every town, local council, whatever, takes 10 Syrian families.

    Then another 10 join them no doubt, and so the craziness spirals out of control.
    How big's a Syrian family?
    According to the UNHCR registration database, the average family size is
    4.5. However, an inter-agency nutrition assessment indicated a higher
    average family size of 6.2 people http://www.mapaction.org/component/mapcat/download/2924.html?fmt=pdf

    see Page 6
    Ta. I wasn't expecting to be told. I see this is an assessment so will in all probability be biased, but 6 is just about believable. Given some Western European benefits, health care etc they'll get to 8 in no time at all.
  • Mr morris, excellent point about body language, mine was more about Cooper's approach to immigration, in fact her beliefs full stop, she appears entirely devoid of conviction. Without wishing to labour the point, for all I know she has a family of Syrians in her summerhouse, such is her approach to the issue, in which case she has my admiration.

    I suspect that she is simply appealing to the handwringers who have yet to vote, because if she is elected leader and announces that immigration numbers will rise she's toast.
  • Bring
    Back
    Bale
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited September 2015

    Of course the government is silent on this problem. It can only be solved by our leaving the EU or by the EU giving up on the idea of free movement of people. The latter is never going to happen and the former is never going to happen if Cameron and the Establishment can help it. HMG's only recourse on this issue is to say nothing and hope not too many people find out about it.

    The more interesting question is what happens when the public increasing concerned and exasperated with immigration issues (and fearful of getting landed with a large mandatory quota of immigrants from war zones) starts to engage with the EU referendum and the polls start to show 60/40 for out. Then what is Cameron's move ?

    The moral debate is interesting in a abstract sort of way, but the voters wont be impressed, what is the realpolitik here if the voters start to react strongly.
    antifrank said:


    We have occasional pb hysteria days. Today is one of those days. If you were to believe pb's paleo-conservatives, kippers and fellow travellers, you'd think that the barbarians were at the gate.

    Meanwhile, to put things into context, here's a nice chart via Faisal Islam showing who goes where:

    Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam · 6m6 minutes ago
    graphic from @ReutersFlasseur on migrant crisis: UK does not register as a "receiving country" http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/migrants/index.html#section-reuters-section-1

    Can't see that is going to impress the voters too much, it must be odds on for concern with immigration to be approaching 60% as the most mentioned issue next time around. Waving your hands in the air and patronising people as paleoconservatives is bound to go down well with all the WWC voters concerned about their jobs,.

    Ironically it concerns a few working class immigrant friends of mine whose attitude can be summarised as that this country isn't the nice English country they moved to a couple of decades ago any more (and by implication there are too many foreigners around!)

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    And Liz looking like a *deputy manager* returning from a training course - ouch

    Plato said:
    Every time I see the four together, Frankie Boyle’s brilliantly funny quote pops into my head.

    ‘Every photo of the candidates looks like the staff room of a failing comprehensive feigning amusement at being photobombed by the janitor.’

  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Cyclefree said:

    Time for some more news on Corbyn - http://hurryupharry.org/2015/09/01/jeremy-corbyn-lobbied-for-a-convicted-terrorist-as-governor-for-lmu/.

    Mind you, LMU is a university in the same way that I'm a marathon runner.

    That's.... unbelievable. What on Earth will be Corbyn's excuse this time? The ones trotted out so far won't work.
  • Cooper looking at Burnham like an icy robot.

  • People on here really don't rate Burnham...

    100 entries: Corbyn: 84% Cooper: 13% Burnham: 2% Kendall: 1%

    http://show.nojam.com/a2sY/summary.php
  • Corbyn thinks net immigration is very small.

    Numbers not his strong point.
  • Could be wrong, but is Cooper forgetting her accent?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Cooper looking at Burnham like an icy robot.

    Not watching Mr Dancer,bet Burnham used the ukip factor ;-)
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    JEO said:

    Right now we allow a very broad interpretation of humans rights that should be narrowed significantly. We should also stop the mentality of thinking "this person has destroyed their passport so we can't deport them anywhere". We need to ask them where they are from, or if they refuse to tell, judge them on language. If we still can't tell, Libya seems like the most likely destination they've passed through.

    That doesn't require setting up offshore centres, does it? It's a completely separate question.

    There's also a further complication which is that the country you deport them to might simply refuse to take them. Then what?
    I don't disagree that it's a separate question. But we discussed the offshore centres and then you asked the separate question, so I responded.

    Countries have to accept their home nationals.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Doesn't she just.

    Cooper looking at Burnham like an icy robot.

  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited September 2015
    Andy Burnham's Twitter photo seems to show his reaction when asked a policy position before he's heard what Jeremy thinks:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/627179127519473664/78BLK0XB_400x400.jpg
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,402
    Jezza getting a decent amount of support in the Youtube sidebar.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    He looks rather bored to me - he feels he's won and it shows, especially when Burnham talks.

    Corbyn thinks net immigration is very small.

    Numbers not his strong point.

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    I suspect that she is simply appealing to the handwringers who have yet to vote, because if she is elected leader and announces that immigration numbers will rise she's toast.

    One thing you can say for JC, he doesn't appear to be a bandwagon jumper in the same class as his two main rivals. Or possibly more accurately he jumped on a fleet of bandwagons some when around 1975 and never found the way off for the next one coming along.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    I'm not sure what % of what Cooper says she actually believes, she tilts her head on one side, looks concerned and considers the least controversial thing to say. So when she talks about 10000 people each month does she mean it or believe its a vote winner?

    If its the latter she's mad.

    She's mad either way in my book.
  • Mr. Pulpstar, favourite such comment - Vote JC. Enslave the unborn!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,402
    JEO said:

    Andy Burnham's Twitter photo seems to show his reaction when asked a policy position before he's heard what Jeremy thinks:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/627179127519473664/78BLK0XB_400x400.jpg

    Andy Burnham looks like he's on some sort of management fast-track program to the top of the Labour party, but JC actually believes in what he says.

    I also think he's suffered alot image wise by being up against vested, slightly crumpled and tieless Jezza. More so than the ladies he looks like the middle management choice for Labour.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Good answer from YC on nuclear weapons/Nato
  • Audio's gone wonky.

    Gremlins trying to sabotage Comrade Corbyn!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,226
    calum said:
    Hopefully he will get sent down for a long time.
  • JEO said:

    JEO said:

    I completely despair at my own party sometimes. They've banned a moderate Out group from having a stall at the party conference:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3216507/Why-Dave-banned-anti-EU-campaigners-asks-ANDREW-PIERCE.html

    All the other parties are allowing them. What the hell is wrong with the Tory leadership? I thought we were supposed to be having an open and fair debate? But now they feel Tory activists can't be allowed to hear the Brexit arguments, in case they form the wrong conclusion?

    Hell would freeze over before the Tories let Aaron Banks anywhere near their conference after his antics last year.

    Most Tories would tell him to f*ck right off, so they are doing him a favour.
    What did he do? Other than dare to give money to another party? If Labour let him in, we can certainly do the same.

    Don’t be daft, Reckless and Aaron Banks where the duo responsible for a coordinated attempt to derail last years Tory Conference. – twas the right decision IMHO.
    Correct. He is a UKIP donor, not a tory activist, who these days only exists to prop up Farage's ego.
  • Burnham and Corbyn disagreeing over whether Corbyn said Russia was provoked.

    Seems to be the first testy moment. Burnham says we shouldn't make excuses for the Russian incursion.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,402
    malcolmg said:

    calum said:
    Hopefully he will get sent down for a long time.
    Lol, how long do you think he should get Malc. Isn't being removed as an MP as far as it should go, or is that not enough for you :) ?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,226

    JEO said:

    I can't see this idea of 'well-managed facilities' in Turkey or Tunisia or elsewhere for would-be asylum seekers is a runner. Why on earth would the governments of Turkey or Tunisia agree? It would be an invitation to very large numbers of migrants to head for these camps; after the Western European countries had accepted (say) 10% of them, what would happen to the other 90%? They'd become an immediate and huge problem for Turkey or Tunisia.

    Australia does it.
    No, Australia sends people who manage to arrive by boat in Australia to offshore-processing centres. That's very different from setting up pre-processing centres in countries closer to the countries of origin, which would act as a magnet for migrants.
    we have plenty of islands that could be used
  • Mr. G, which one? And don't be Scilly.
  • Plato said:

    He looks rather bored to me - he feels he's won and it shows, especially when Burnham talks.

    Corbyn thinks net immigration is very small.

    Numbers not his strong point.

    Most people who are going to vote will have voted by now, so JC would be right to feel he has won.

    All candidates will be feeling rather weary by now, as will the electorate.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2015
    malcolmg said:

    calum said:
    Hopefully he will get sent down for a long time.
    Yes a by election would be fun... 8 Lib Dems in parliament... But if one Lib Dem should accidentally fall...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,226
    Pulpstar said:

    malcolmg said:

    calum said:
    Hopefully he will get sent down for a long time.
    Lol, how long do you think he should get Malc. Isn't being removed as an MP as far as it should go, or is that not enough for you :) ?
    Pulpstar , I am just sad hanging was repealed as well as drawing and quartering.
  • Mr. G, didn't have you down as an admirer of Edward I's methods ;)
  • Why don't they say: "Sure, Jeremy, everyone needs to talk, but you're not effing George Mitchell, you're a backbencher." It's a ludicrous conceit that he is somehow part of the Middle East peace process.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    I loved it when JC said "We should always oppose far-right racism." Implying far-left racism is fine :D
  • 6.8% on here ukip voters, I thought it was less than that tbh. I like this site but it's as close as you'll get to the media bubble as can be without leaving your desk. And I'm interested in that figure, lots on here have views sympathetic with ukip but wouldn't vote for them, I can't decide if its a tribal thing or they don't like the messenger.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited September 2015

    Mr. G, which one? And don't be Scilly.

    The Highlands. Plenty of space up there, and friendly welcoming locals.
  • Pauly said:

    I loved it when JC said "We should always oppose far-right racism." Implying far-left racism is fine :D

    Oh come on, you can't be left wing and racist. Or homophobic, or sexist, or etc etc

  • Say what you like about Corbyn, and I know many of you do, but his campaign has been tremendously well run. The steady stream of announcements on a variety of subjects has allowed Corbyn to set the agenda while forcing the others to scramble for a response or repeat platitudes. Corbyn's campaign has also made impressive use of the web and social media to engage people without feeling overly corporate, artificial or cynical. Particularly impressive given the candidate in question is in his 60s and won't have hired a bunch of PR gurus.
  • All four agree nice cuts are needed. Not nasty Tory cuts.

    Burnham claims Labour's more humane benefits policy [says the Conservatives are playing politics with it] was the reason for having fewer food banks then.

    Actually, food banks numbers have continually risen since the middle of the last decade. Whether in boom, recession or recovery, the numbers have increased.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,529
    edited September 2015
    Corbyn describes benefit policy [the cap, I think] as 'brutal'.

    Conservative poster-makers will be liking that.

    Edited extra bit: Corbyn wants to use QE to stimulate growth (for infrastructure) and cites Japan as an example.

    Cooper attacks him for wanting to print money.
  • Oliver_PB said:

    Say what you like about Corbyn, and I know many of you do, but his campaign has been tremendously well run. The steady stream of announcements on a variety of subjects has allowed Corbyn to set the agenda while forcing the others to scramble for a response or repeat platitudes. Corbyn's campaign has also made impressive use of the web and social media to engage people without feeling overly corporate, artificial or cynical. Particularly impressive given the candidate in question is in his 60s and won't have hired a bunch of PR gurus.

    His announcements have been bonkers - which rather constrains his rivals ability to agree with them. They only appeal to his £3 entryists.
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    edited September 2015
    Why so hung up on inflation?

    It's currently running at just above zero. Is there an underlying assumption that it's fundamentally uncontrollable? - i.e. is it assumed that PQE is set in motion, it'll be limitless?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,402
    Liz Kendall has amazingly white teeth.
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