>>I expect Osbo to be willing to damage current pensioners, on the high probability that the Tories will get 10 or maybe 15 more years and that is time to recover.
>>He's already done it with the captive bullet he has put into lettuce sandwiches .. sorry ... the PRS where people have a decent pension and some rental income.
>>Many - esp. small business people and private sector - went into BTL as a strategy after Gordon took £5bn a year or so out from 1997. Then the income from private pensions plummeted as demographics changed and then the stock market suffered.
>>Also for Osbo I think it is part of a pitch for a big CGT windfall (10s of billions) over 10 years and a strategic move for support amongst Generation Rent.
>I don't see that happening.
Could you focus that - which bits do you mean?
I think he's also dampening down wild use of the new pension freedoms for people to go into Buy to Let. Financial advisers won't go out on that sort of limb in the current mega-compensation culture, because pensioners do not come under the "sophisticated investor" category.
I think he's also looking to free up the London market a little, because he only gets the CGT windfall if people have to sell.
There will be some compromise because it is a hell of a campaign being put on, but it will be a carefully crafted compromise.
I could see mileage in, for example, as a one off LLs selling up having their CGT bill reduced by say 1/2 if they used half of that saving to sell the property to the existing tenants at a reduced price by fudnnig the deposit to get them on one of the Govt schemes. GO likes win-win-win.
I mean that I don't think he'll actually get the support of Generation Rent, and I don't see his CGT plans making *that* much of a difference.
Nigel Farage is trying to block Suzanne Evans from becoming Ukip candidate for Mayor of London with a covert campaign to install a less threatening, loyal party colleague in her place, sources have told Coffee House.
Don't see what qualifies Suzanne Evans to be a good candidate for the London Mayoralty. Not from London, doesn't live in London...
I think people only praise her so highly as a alternative way of slighting Farage.. I cant think what she has done to be so highly thought of by non kippers
Peter Whittle would be the best choice for UKIP I reckon.
(I wrote that without reading the article by the way!)
Evans' chief asset is putting the UKIP case well on the TV circuit and looking and sounding reasonable. I'd assume she might help broaden the party's appeal.
I agree with you that she's not obviously a Mayoral candidate but one way or another UKIP need to sort all these briefings out or they're going to miss a very big post-Corbyn opportunity.
I have met Suzanne and she is good company, but her media performances haven't struck me as particularly impressive. Whittle is from London, did very well as candidate in a London constituency (Eltham), speaks nicely and writes very well on social issues in London. Seems the obvious candidate to me
Obvious to you huh? Give me a break. So why not have a vote on it then? Is there something wrong with letting the local membership vote on the choice? Oh yes Saint Nigel may not like it.
Reading the last thread, I have to laugh at the excerpt as to why Osborne is 'setting the agenda'. He says gay marriage was controversial. Among, whom is exactly? Not a vast majority of the public, but his own party who apparently being so pro-equality voted in large numbers against the act. Osborne isn't anywhere close to establishing a political consensus among all parties for a lower welfare bill either - not in the least, because how low the bill actually will be is questionable. As I said last night, a large chalk of the welfare bill is spent on pensions, and pension-related benefits. Yet pension benefits aren't being cut.
I bet Gordon Brown thought his ever-expanding state would last forever as well.
The public pay in over their lifetimes to get their state pensions. The state pension is legally obliged to be paid out from the contributions paid in and a pool of money has to be maintained to smooth out the ups and downs of the ins and outs.
Pensions are not welfare. Pensions amount to about £150bn, The welfare bill is about £55bn.
The state pension is generally included in the welfare total, even by the Daily Mail.
The public also over their working life pay taxes, and therefore contribute to welfare payments such as housing benefit, tax credits, JSA, that they may need to claim one day.
On the other side, the State Pension is not included in the Welfare Cap in the 2014 Budget documents.
Jobseeker’s Allowance and its passported Housing Benefit Universal Credit payments to claimants subject to full conditionality and on zero income State Pension (basic and additional) Transfers within government (e.g. Over-75s TV licences) Benefits paid from DEL
Is this semantics on a pinhead depending on the newspaper?
Reading the last thread, I have to laugh at the excerpt as to why Osborne is 'setting the agenda'. He says gay marriage was controversial. Among, whom is exactly? Not a vast majority of the public, but his own party who apparently being so pro-equality voted in large numbers against the act. Osborne isn't anywhere close to establishing a political consensus among all parties for a lower welfare bill either - not in the least, because how low the bill actually will be is questionable. As I said last night, a large chalk of the welfare bill is spent on pensions, and pension-related benefits. Yet pension benefits aren't being cut.
I bet Gordon Brown thought his ever-expanding state would last forever as well.
The public pay in over their lifetimes to get their state pensions. The state pension is legally obliged to be paid out from the contributions paid in and a pool of money has to be maintained to smooth out the ups and downs of the ins and outs.
Pensions are not welfare. Pensions amount to about £150bn, The welfare bill is about £55bn.
The state pension is generally included in the welfare total, even by the Daily Mail.
The public also over their working life pay taxes, and therefore contribute to welfare payments such as housing benefit, tax credits, JSA, that they may need to claim one day.
On the other side, the State Pension is not included in the Welfare Cap in the 2014 Budget documents.
Jobseeker’s Allowance and its passported Housing Benefit Universal Credit payments to claimants subject to full conditionality and on zero income State Pension (basic and additional) Transfers within government (e.g. Over-75s TV licences) Benefits paid from DEL
Is this semantics on a pinhead depending on the newspaper? Nope many other newspaper sources include it as well.
Welfare covers a number of benefits, and many people don’t realise that the largest amount is actually spent on state pensions at £83 billion (33% of total welfare spending).
I mean that I don't think he'll actually get the support of Generation Rent, and I don't see his CGT plans making *that* much of a difference.
Thanks.
Of course we don't know the final proposals yet - they are still consulting.
I'm aware of several landlords with approximately thirty to hundred property portfolios who are planning to sell up completely and be based in Malta or Portugal for 5 years on a career break.
CGT bills are one motivation. There are other motivations around - the general bureaucracy now imposed or vitriolic political hatred are a couple of others.
It's big.
I could see BTL decline in London and perhaps parts of the SE by several % of the Housing stock. That's a (maybe low) guestimate though.
A former Green Party councillor has defended his hobby - as a big game hunter.
Defiant Ben Wightman, 27, has proudly posted trophy photos of himself next to a series of animals he has shot in South Africa.
The controversial images - on his publicly-open Facebook page - show a grinning Wightman, rifle in hand, crouched beside a host of dead animals, including two antelopes, a bloodied warthog, an ostrich, buffalo and a zebra.
I mean that I don't think he'll actually get the support of Generation Rent, and I don't see his CGT plans making *that* much of a difference.
Thanks.
Of course we don't know the final proposals yet - they are still consulting.
I'm aware of several landlords with approximately thirty to hundred property portfolios who are planning to sell up completely and be based in Malta or Portugal for 5 years on a career break.
CGT bills are one motivation. There are other motivations around - the general bureaucracy now imposed or vitriolic political hatred are a couple of others.
It's big.
I could see BTL decline in London and perhaps parts of the SE by several % of the Housing stock. That's a (maybe low) guestimate though.
What do you mean re. vitriolic political hatred? Does the government hate landlords or something? Also, how does the BTL decline make housing more affordable and accessible?
As Conor Pope notes, this means we'll be able to see who would have won under the old system - he reckons Burnham at present (though not all MP's allegiances are known, I suppose).
New PPP poll of New Hampshire has Bernie Sanders doing better in a general election in the Granite State than Hillary. Jeb Bush third behind Trump in a 3 way
Clinton 41% Kasich 43% Clinton 46% Trump 44% Clinton 45% Fiorina 42% Clinton 46% Bush 39% Clinton 46% Christie 38% Clinton 47% Rubio 39% Clinton 47% Walker 39% Clinton 48% Carson 40% Clinton 47% Paul 37% Clinton 49% Cruz 38% Clinton 49% Huckabee 38%
The Telegraph are reporting that he sent a fax to a news station before his death in which he claimed Jehovah told him to do it. Makes a change from Allah I suppose.
If BTL landlords are selling up, that means one of two things. Either professional managing companies with good tax minimisation structures will buy, or BTLs will sell to non-BTLs, almost all owner-occupiers though probably including some holiday homes for foreigners in nice parts of London. The first makes little difference to families, as far as I know. The second actually tightens the rental market; it's almost inevitable that owner-occupiers will want larger dwellings than the average rental property and, thus, household spaces in the system will decline.
Actually, they are, in the shape of a higher retirement age.
That isn't going to affect current-pensioners, who in large numbers vote Tory. Instead, it'll most likely affect young people, and middle-aged people - so really a cut of their future benefits.
I expect Osbo to be willing to damage current pensioners, on the high probability that the Tories will get 10 or maybe 15 more years and that is time to recover.
He's already done it with the captive bullet he has put into lettuce sandwiches .. sorry ... the PRS where people have a decent pension and some rental income.
Many - esp. small business people and private sector - went into BTL as a strategy after Gordon took £5bn a year or so out from 1997. Then the income from private pensions plummeted as demographics changed and then the stock market suffered.
Also for Osbo I think it is part of a pitch for a big CGT windfall (10s of billions) over 10 years and a strategic move for support amongst Generation Rent.
I don't see that happening.
If you bother to read up on what has been introduced, without consultation or warning, mind, you will find that a big increase in CGT receipts is what Osborne has lined up. That is to say he has set in place a big increase in taxes levied on those that are asset rich.
CGT -- Due on the sale of an asset that has increased in value there will be a tax. At the same time the tax due after death IHT due to your own house value - your own personal house - is being cut.
CGT will be impacting more people faster than the IHT change. Anyone know what extra CGT gains the OBR think will come from this change?
I think this takes into account all tax consequences, both income tax and CGT:
Nigel Farage is trying to block Suzanne Evans from becoming Ukip candidate for Mayor of London with a covert campaign to install a less threatening, loyal party colleague in her place, sources have told Coffee House.
Dumb, but good news for the other parties. UKIP have few people that the voters would recognise. Boris won because of that recognition even though he lacked a history of managing a council. Suzanne has the best name recognition and comes across to voters as competent. This other chap is way short of credibility. This move is illustrative of UKIP failing to capitalise on opportunities because of Farage's deep flaws. Lacks the Leadership quality of nurturing talent because he fears rivals. Gordon Brown?
The man on the Clapham omnibus would not know who Evans is. In my opinion Peter Whittle is the superior candidate so he should get a crack at becoming MoL.
New PPP poll of New Hampshire has Bernie Sanders doing better in a general election in the Granite State than Hillary. Jeb Bush third behind Trump in a 3 way
Clinton 41% Kasich 43% Clinton 46% Trump 44% Clinton 45% Fiorina 42% Clinton 46% Bush 39% Clinton 46% Christie 38% Clinton 47% Rubio 39% Clinton 47% Walker 39% Clinton 48% Carson 40% Clinton 47% Paul 37% Clinton 49% Cruz 38% Clinton 49% Huckabee 38%
New PPP poll of New Hampshire has Bernie Sanders doing better in a general election in the Granite State than Hillary. Jeb Bush third behind Trump in a 3 way
Clinton 41% Kasich 43% Clinton 46% Trump 44% Clinton 45% Fiorina 42% Clinton 46% Bush 39% Clinton 46% Christie 38% Clinton 47% Rubio 39% Clinton 47% Walker 39% Clinton 48% Carson 40% Clinton 47% Paul 37% Clinton 49% Cruz 38% Clinton 49% Huckabee 38%
Nigel Farage is trying to block Suzanne Evans from becoming Ukip candidate for Mayor of London with a covert campaign to install a less threatening, loyal party colleague in her place, sources have told Coffee House.
Dumb, but good news for the other parties. UKIP have few people that the voters would recognise. Boris won because of that recognition even though he lacked a history of managing a council. Suzanne has the best name recognition and comes across to voters as competent. This other chap is way short of credibility. This move is illustrative of UKIP failing to capitalise on opportunities because of Farage's deep flaws. Lacks the Leadership quality of nurturing talent because he fears rivals. Gordon Brown?
The man on the Clapham omnibus would not know who Evans is. In my opinion Peter Whittle is the superior candidate so he should get a crack at becoming MoL.
This is not about every voter, but since Suzanne has appeared in the media probably 10 or more times the number Mr Whittle has, she will be better known. But you are welcome to defend Mr anonymous as it will hamper UKIPs chances.
New PPP poll of New Hampshire has Bernie Sanders doing better in a general election in the Granite State than Hillary. Jeb Bush third behind Trump in a 3 way
Clinton 41% Kasich 43% Clinton 46% Trump 44% Clinton 45% Fiorina 42% Clinton 46% Bush 39% Clinton 46% Christie 38% Clinton 47% Rubio 39% Clinton 47% Walker 39% Clinton 48% Carson 40% Clinton 47% Paul 37% Clinton 49% Cruz 38% Clinton 49% Huckabee 38%
New PPP poll of New Hampshire has Bernie Sanders doing better in a general election in the Granite State than Hillary. Jeb Bush third behind Trump in a 3 way
Clinton 41% Kasich 43% Clinton 46% Trump 44% Clinton 45% Fiorina 42% Clinton 46% Bush 39% Clinton 46% Christie 38% Clinton 47% Rubio 39% Clinton 47% Walker 39% Clinton 48% Carson 40% Clinton 47% Paul 37% Clinton 49% Cruz 38% Clinton 49% Huckabee 38%
Bush doing so badly even in one of the most "moderate" states looks pretty fatal for him...
For the moment yes, on this evidence Hillary faces more of a challenge from Sanders than Trump does from Bush
It does look as though Jeb Bush is a terrible candidate.
Indeed, he has neither the charisma of his brother or the gravitas of his father, his son may be a better bet though longer term. Remember Jeb lost his first run for Florida governor in 1994 when he was expected to win while Dubya won the race for Texas governor when he was expected to lose
Actually, they are, in the shape of a higher retirement age.
That isn't going to affect current-pensioners, who in large numbers vote Tory. Instead, it'll most likely affect young people, and middle-aged people - so really a cut of their future benefits.
I expect Osbo to be willing to damage current pensioners, on the high probability that the Tories will get 10 or maybe 15 more years and that is time to recover.
He's already done it with the captive bullet he has put into lettuce sandwiches .. sorry ... the PRS where people have a decent pension and some rental income.
Many - esp. small business people and private sector - went into BTL as a strategy after Gordon took £5bn a year or so out from 1997. Then the income from private pensions plummeted as demographics changed and then the stock market suffered.
Also for Osbo I think it is part of a pitch for a big CGT windfall (10s of billions) over 10 years and a strategic move for support amongst Generation Rent.
I don't see that happening.
If you bother to read up on what has been introduced, without consultation or warning, mind, you will find that a big increase in CGT receipts is what Osborne has lined up. That is to say he has set in place a big increase in taxes levied on those that are asset rich.
CGT -- Due on the sale of an asset that has increased in value there will be a tax. At the same time the tax due after death IHT due to your own house value - your own personal house - is being cut.
CGT will be impacting more people faster than the IHT change. Anyone know what extra CGT gains the OBR think will come from this change?
I think this takes into account all tax consequences, both income tax and CGT:
Hmmmm. Running a few rough numbers even 20,000 extra units sold a year predominantly in London could generate £1bn extra each year in CGT and sale tax etc. It could easily be more.
Oh dear - the Jezbollah teaming up with the CAGE people. Notable that Babar Ahmed is mentioned. He is a friend of Sadiq Khan. CAGE were the people who described Jihadi John as a gentle boy or some such garbage.
If BTL landlords are selling up, that means one of two things. Either professional managing companies with good tax minimisation structures will buy, or BTLs will sell to non-BTLs, almost all owner-occupiers though probably including some holiday homes for foreigners in nice parts of London. The first makes little difference to families, as far as I know. The second actually tightens the rental market; it's almost inevitable that owner-occupiers will want larger dwellings than the average rental property and, thus, household spaces in the system will decline.
Yes rental rates will rise. London purchase prices may temporarily plateau but will not drop the 20% to 30% required to enable the same number of renters to move into a purchase.
Nigel Farage is trying to block Suzanne Evans from becoming Ukip candidate for Mayor of London with a covert campaign to install a less threatening, loyal party colleague in her place, sources have told Coffee House.
Dumb, but good news for the other parties. UKIP have few people that the voters would recognise. Boris won because of that recognition even though he lacked a history of managing a council. Suzanne has the best name recognition and comes across to voters as competent. This other chap is way short of credibility. This move is illustrative of UKIP failing to capitalise on opportunities because of Farage's deep flaws. Lacks the Leadership quality of nurturing talent because he fears rivals. Gordon Brown?
The man on the Clapham omnibus would not know who Evans is. In my opinion Peter Whittle is the superior candidate so he should get a crack at becoming MoL.
This is not about every voter, but since Suzanne has appeared in the media probably 10 or more times the number Mr Whittle has, she will be better known. But you are welcome to defend Mr anonymous as it will hamper UKIPs chances.
You have a lot in common with Baroness Warsi. She was in favour of high profile A-list candidates. That worked out well for the Tories, instead of Roger Helmer retiring, he joined UKIP. How the candidate next on the regional list was treated was a disgrace.
By the way, those people who said Jez has no political nous can eat their words now - his "women-only carriages" thing was a quite ingenious use of Lynton Crosby's "dead cat strategy" which has stopped people talking about his links to anti-semites.
By the way, those people who said Jez has no political nous can eat their words now - his "women-only carriages" thing was a quite ingenious use of Lynton Crosby's "dead cat strategy" which has stopped people talking about his links to anti-semites.
No - some of us are still talking about his links to anti-Semites and terrorists. See my post below. There's plenty more where that came from.
Nigel Farage is trying to block Suzanne Evans from becoming Ukip candidate for Mayor of London with a covert campaign to install a less threatening, loyal party colleague in her place, sources have told Coffee House.
Dumb, but good news for the other parties. UKIP have few people that the voters would recognise. Boris won because of that recognition even though he lacked a history of managing a council. Suzanne has the best name recognition and comes across to voters as competent. This other chap is way short of credibility. This move is illustrative of UKIP failing to capitalise on opportunities because of Farage's deep flaws. Lacks the Leadership quality of nurturing talent because he fears rivals. Gordon Brown?
The man on the Clapham omnibus would not know who Evans is. In my opinion Peter Whittle is the superior candidate so he should get a crack at becoming MoL.
This is not about every voter, but since Suzanne has appeared in the media probably 10 or more times the number Mr Whittle has, she will be better known. But you are welcome to defend Mr anonymous as it will hamper UKIPs chances.
You have a lot in common with Baroness Warsi. She was in favour of high profile A-list candidates. That worked out well for the Tories, instead of Roger Helmer retiring, he joined UKIP.
Hardly. Have you met her? I have, very unimpressive. She also did not have an A list as that was driven from elsewhere. Helmer's rebellion was entirely understandable and a stupid own goal by the party. It was not about an A list candidate it was all about denying a legitimate person next in the list who had views that some at the top did not like. Very dumb. Just like this move against Suzanne.
The Telegraph are reporting that he sent a fax to a news station before his death in which he claimed Jehovah told him to do it. Makes a change from Allah I suppose.
Anyone who claims religion as a motivator to kill has no understanding of religion. Ignore as complete and utter bollocks.
Nigel Farage is trying to block Suzanne Evans from becoming Ukip candidate for Mayor of London with a covert campaign to install a less threatening, loyal party colleague in her place, sources have told Coffee House.
Dumb, but good news for the other parties. UKIP have few people that the voters would recognise. Boris won because of that recognition even though he lacked a history of managing a council. Suzanne has the best name recognition and comes across to voters as competent. This other chap is way short of credibility. This move is illustrative of UKIP failing to capitalise on opportunities because of Farage's deep flaws. Lacks the Leadership quality of nurturing talent because he fears rivals. Gordon Brown?
The man on the Clapham omnibus would not know who Evans is. In my opinion Peter Whittle is the superior candidate so he should get a crack at becoming MoL.
This is not about every voter, but since Suzanne has appeared in the media probably 10 or more times the number Mr Whittle has, she will be better known. But you are welcome to defend Mr anonymous as it will hamper UKIPs chances.
Yes they'd be 0.2% with Evans and 0.195% with Whittle
Nigel Farage is trying to block Suzanne Evans from becoming Ukip candidate for Mayor of London with a covert campaign to install a less threatening, loyal party colleague in her place, sources have told Coffee House.
Dumb, but good news for the other parties. UKIP have few people that the voters would recognise. Boris won because of that recognition even though he lacked a history of managing a council. Suzanne has the best name recognition and comes across to voters as competent. This other chap is way short of credibility. This move is illustrative of UKIP failing to capitalise on opportunities because of Farage's deep flaws. Lacks the Leadership quality of nurturing talent because he fears rivals. Gordon Brown?
The man on the Clapham omnibus would not know who Evans is. In my opinion Peter Whittle is the superior candidate so he should get a crack at becoming MoL.
This is not about every voter, but since Suzanne has appeared in the media probably 10 or more times the number Mr Whittle has, she will be better known. But you are welcome to defend Mr anonymous as it will hamper UKIPs chances.
Yes they'd be 0.2% with Evans and 0.195% with Whittle
Decisions decisions
isam I am amazed that someone who presents himself as being sharp and attuned to betting chances could post that. Perhaps you should re-consider? But alas there is probably no market or election to prove otherwise. Or is it some form of longer term poker play to make us think that you apply the same logic to bets on here?
Comments
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/293759/37630_Budget_2014_Web_Accessible.pdf#page=88 Is this semantics on a pinhead depending on the newspaper?
Signed, D'Artagnan.
Nope many other newspaper sources include it as well.
Also, the ONS include it:
http://visual.ons.gov.uk/welfare-spending/
Welfare covers a number of benefits, and many people don’t realise that the largest amount is actually spent on state pensions at £83 billion (33% of total welfare spending).
Of course we don't know the final proposals yet - they are still consulting.
I'm aware of several landlords with approximately thirty to hundred property portfolios who are planning to sell up completely and be based in Malta or Portugal for 5 years on a career break.
CGT bills are one motivation. There are other motivations around - the general bureaucracy now imposed or vitriolic political hatred are a couple of others.
It's big.
I could see BTL decline in London and perhaps parts of the SE by several % of the Housing stock. That's a (maybe low) guestimate though.
People may not expect it, but I'm often struck that those councillors I have met tend to be very sane and competent. Actually, he sounds like the first Green i have heard talk sense. Good on him, hes going to get a social media shit storm though:
http://vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/simpsons/images/a/ab/Simpsons_angry_mob.png/revision/latest?cb=20070619165229
As Conor Pope notes, this means we'll be able to see who would have won under the old system - he reckons Burnham at present (though not all MP's allegiances are known, I suppose).
Clinton 41% Kasich 43%
Clinton 46% Trump 44%
Clinton 45% Fiorina 42%
Clinton 46% Bush 39%
Clinton 46% Christie 38%
Clinton 47% Rubio 39%
Clinton 47% Walker 39%
Clinton 48% Carson 40%
Clinton 47% Paul 37%
Clinton 49% Cruz 38%
Clinton 49% Huckabee 38%
Sanders 46% Bush 38%
Sanders 50% Trump 41%
Sanders 48% Rubio 35%
Sanders 47% Walker 39%
Clinton 43% Trump 28% Bush 22%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/ayottehassan-a-toss-up-clintonsanders-generally-lead-gop-field.html
The Treasury estimates that the introduction of this measure will generate £225m in additional tax revenue in 2018-19, rising to £665m by 2020-21. - See more at: https://www.accountancylive.com/summer-budget-2015-40-tax-relief-buy-let-landlords-phased-out#.dpuf
http://hurryupharry.org/2015/08/25/jeremy-corbyn-teams-up-with-moazzam-begg-to-help-terrorists/
Decisions decisions