I went to a Russell Group uni, and networking there has been non-existent job-wise. I then went to a top business school where probably 25% of the class were from the super-wealthy. Networking there is clearly important, although I personally have not used or benefitted from it in my line of work.
My own personal network I have developed professionally, however, is crucial to my business.
Very interesting re your point on Russell Group unis. Everything that I've heard would assume it'd be the opposite!
The more I think about it, the more I think networking is only truly relevant to the super-wealthy, or those at the very top levels of corporations who are in charge of hire and fire decisions for key positions. That being said, it's probably only relevant in a very small percentage of the population.
This is a very unscientific position, and I am willing to be proved wrong by facts (as opposed to mere assertions).
Watching Sky right now who are going on about the new film tax rate and how this wonderful new thing will cause a boom in UK movie-making etc etc.
There was an interview with GO. I wish the reporter had asked "Do you agree it's right that we are required to ask the EU for permission to do something like this".
I went to a Russell Group uni, and networking there has been non-existent job-wise. I then went to a top business school where probably 25% of the class were from the super-wealthy. Networking there is clearly important, although I personally have not used or benefitted from it in my line of work.
My own personal network I have developed professionally, however, is crucial to my business.
Very interesting re your point on Russell Group unis. Everything that I've heard would assume it'd be the opposite!
If you've not come across the Sutton Trust they produce loads of research on all of this - e.g. on GE2015 MPs:
I'm supporting #YvetteForLabour and Stella Creasy for Deputy. Join me here'
People cannot change their minds based on the campaign? Jul17 was a long time ago in this campaign.
Of course they can - but to suggest he should be above criticism for his flip-flopping is ridiculous. the fact that he appears to be 'following the money' is entirely valid criticism. He is an ordinary Pber like the rest of us. No more and no less.
Indeed so - I'd be annoyed if anyone was subjected to particularly vitrioclic condemnation (when it is not two way, and thus presumably part of the rough and tumble styles of the participants).
The problem for the Lib Dems in the Southwest is that they'll be coming up against a fair amount of 1st time incumbent Tory MPs rooted in the centre ground of British politics. The Tories made some very smart choices with their choice of PPCs for SW seats. I think it entirely possible the Lib Dems will gain alot of councillors down there by 2020, whilst the Conservative seats are easily held at the GE.
(...) It is probably safe there for the Tories in 2020 unless the next leader is a dud - I get the feeling a lot of Blue Liberals, as I insist upon terming them, are reasonably content with Cameron as a liberalish Tory (or at least, he does not frighten away those people).
Not really, Mr Kle. The Conservatives fought the last election on the basis that they would be the "Continuation Coalition" Government. Now that they have been able to worm their way into an overall majority, they are coming out in their true colours. They can´t play that particular trick twice.
And the moderate Tory MPs - I need reminding which ones they are - are being contaminated by the policies of the Tory hardliners. No first time incumbency there, I think!
It's a possibility. It really does depend how hardline the Tories as a whole go, particularly if they feel the next election is already in the bag and get incautious. But it is not a certainty they will be so foolish, and it requires a big shift for the LDs to get back to where they were. Not impossible, granted, but being reliant on the Tories messing up by going too hardline is risky for them as it is out of their own hands.
FPT Mr Evershed says (re defence of Corbyn/NP -- ''Sweden is not in NATO. Blair has meetings with Hamas and other dubious otrganisations. Conservative and Labour governments and leaders have had meetings with the IRA. Why would you not talk to your enemies? These are not outlandish actions and policies.''
I went to a Russell Group uni, and networking there has been non-existent job-wise. I then went to a top business school where probably 25% of the class were from the super-wealthy. Networking there is clearly important, although I personally have not used or benefitted from it in my line of work.
My own personal network I have developed professionally, however, is crucial to my business.
Very interesting re your point on Russell Group unis. Everything that I've heard would assume it'd be the opposite!
If you've not come across the Sutton Trust they produce loads of research on all of this - e.g. on GE2015 MPs:
I don't believe we've seen "peak Kipper". I believe the current split on the right is so serious, it may never heal. I suspect, on a ten year view, that UKIP will become a serious force.
*But*
They do need to improve their local and ground games. They need to be winning local by-elections, they need to be holding the seats they own, and they need to establish a track record of competent local governance. Otherwise, I think they will suffer from SDP**2 problem: with a high teens share, but a poor ability to turn votes into seats.
As an aside: I think (relatively) competent local governance in the 90s was one of the reasons the LibDems were able to attract tactical votes. UKIP would be wise to copy this focus.
I agree. Most of those saying UKIP are finished are, funnily enough, precisely the same people who hold them most in contempt and always have done, so I don't think we should take their views too seriously. People like Matthew Parris and Iain Dale for example.
I don't believe we've seen "peak Kipper". I believe the current split on the right is so serious, it may never heal. I suspect, on a ten year view, that UKIP will become a serious force.
*But*
They do need to improve their local and ground games. They need to be winning local by-elections, they need to be holding the seats they own, and they need to establish a track record of competent local governance. Otherwise, I think they will suffer from SDP**2 problem: with a high teens share, but a poor ability to turn votes into seats.
As an aside: I think (relatively) competent local governance in the 90s was one of the reasons the LibDems were able to attract tactical votes. UKIP would be wise to copy this focus.
I agree. Most of those saying UKIP are finished are, funnily enough, precisely the same people who hold them most in contempt and always have done, so I don't think we should take their views too seriously. People like Matthew Parris and Iain Dale for example.
The 2016 locals will be hard for the LibDems: 2012 was the best year for the LibDems last cycle, when they got 16%. Even if you assume a 3% local election "premium" vs the general, then the LibDems seem unlikely to get more than (say) 12 or 13% this time around.
This should mean you will see further local election losses next May. It is only in May 2017, that you would expect to see some kind of LibDem recovery.
I don't believe we've seen "peak Kipper". I believe the current split on the right is so serious, it may never heal. I suspect, on a ten year view, that UKIP will become a serious force.
*But*
They do need to improve their local and ground games. They need to be winning local by-elections, they need to be holding the seats they own, and they need to establish a track record of competent local governance. Otherwise, I think they will suffer from SDP**2 problem: with a high teens share, but a poor ability to turn votes into seats.
As an aside: I think (relatively) competent local governance in the 90s was one of the reasons the LibDems were able to attract tactical votes. UKIP would be wise to copy this focus.
UKIP have always found it difficult to hang on to gains. Not very many UKIP councillors or MEPs last the course.
Ha Ha. Someone's cranked up the anger volume to 11.
C'mon, tim, we need you back (until Sept 10th). Tell us what you really feel.
Actually I DO wish tim would come back. He was a curmudgeonly old bastard, but he was often astute, and sometimes very funny. He'd be good value on Corbyn.
Oh, I completely agree...I might e-mail him (we occasionally keep in touch)...but I'm sure he's still reading pb if no longer contributing. And he pays all his bets at once and no complaints.
Was just going to link that. A blisteringly good article, and one that Palmer et al should read, very quickly.
As Massie puts it, Corbyn's politics aren't just silly and wrong. They are indecent. They are repellent.
Until recently I thought it would be hilarious if Corbyn was elected: and of course, brilliant for the right and the Tories.
I don't think that any more, having seen so much more of Jezbollah. Corbyn is a nasty piece of work, and should not be anywhere near the leadership of one of the UK's great political parties. Labour are overreacting in their grief and dismay at defeat, and they are about to commit an awful and wretched mistake.
Hence Nick Palmer and the Useful Idiots. The hard left is deeply, deeply unpleasant. I don't think Nick and a lot of Labour Corbyn voters have much in common with them, so the only logical explanation for their support for JC is a mix of naive projection, frustration, grief and gullibility. It's stupidity, not wockedness that is driving them on. As opposed to JC and his mates, who really are profoundly repellant on just about every level you can think of.
I'd rather strip the bark from Corbyn than have him strip the flesh from the rest of us.
Ha Ha. Someone's cranked up the anger volume to 11.
C'mon, tim, we need you back (until Sept 10th). Tell us what you really feel.
Tories and Trots are #intenselyrelaxed about Corbyn. All the New/sensiblish Labour media, spads and politicos and geeks (Tim, Hattie, AndyB, Hodges, Rentoul, Southie, Monty) are all heading to a state of meltdown. But Tim is winning this contest.
Ha Ha. Someone's cranked up the anger volume to 11.
C'mon, tim, we need you back (until Sept 10th). Tell us what you really feel.
Tories and Trots are #intenselyrelaxed about Corbyn. All the New/sensiblish Labour media, spads and politicos and geeks (Tim, Hattie, AndyB, Hodges, Rentoul, Southie, Monty) are all heading to a state of meltdown. But Tim is winning this contest.
Not this Tory. If I had a vote it would be for Kendall with no transfers. But I don't believe in 'interfering' with opponents' internal electoral processes.
@tnewtondunn: Knives truly out now for Ed Miliband over #Labourleadership. A senior former Cabinet minister just told me: "The man's a f***ing w***er".
I went to a Russell Group uni, and networking there has been non-existent job-wise. I then went to a top business school where probably 25% of the class were from the super-wealthy. Networking there is clearly important, although I personally have not used or benefitted from it in my line of work.
My own personal network I have developed professionally, however, is crucial to my business.
Very interesting re your point on Russell Group unis. Everything that I've heard would assume it'd be the opposite!
In most RG universities, as an undergraduate, you'll be a small fish in a very big pond.
A good mate went to Southampton. got a 2-1 in a physical science, and claims to have never once spoken to an academic member of staff.
Not even his personal tutor? At Imperial in undergrad, we were each assigned a Personal Tutor (just an administrative, rather than purely academic role) and were advised to meet them at least once a term. My personal tutor gave me quite a bit of advice on finding PhD positions during my final year as an undergrad. He was my first referee.
I'm a personal tutor at a plate glass university.
I have dozens of personal tutees. I make an effort at the start and then its up to them.
@HurstLlama That's quite a good point, regarding the educational establishment being a vested interest.
@JossiasJessop I think networking may be beneficial if you go to somewhere like Eton, though.
Also good observation by @antifrank that seemingly the rise in concern about immigration has not benefited UKIP. Why?
I think the Tories are doing a good job of both raising concerns about immigration and gathering any support which isn't already with them on this issue - UKIP are looking increasingly irrelevant at the moment. Bizarrely one of UKIP's policies in Scotland during GE2015 was to reopen coal mines !!
In terms of the state v private school debate. I think the folks I know who went to private school fall into 3rds:
-1/3 who are highly motivated, academically strong and would've achieved from a state school background - they may succeed a bit quicker but things level out.
-1/3 who do better academically than they would've in the state sector, they are able to achieve modestly and may get a bit of a boost through networking.
- 1/3 who despite all of the benefits of a private education, for one reason and another don't amount to very much.
Folks in the 1st category don't tend to have the sense of entitlement which sadly many folks in the 2nd and 3rd categories have.
On the immigration issue, apparently 62% don't trust/believe in Cameron to sort out the Calais crisis! Yes, I think after their post-GE fallout they've become invisible. If they can't influence the debate now though, when can they?
On private school, I didn't even think that the third outcome was possible. Even Polly Toynbee who reportedly wasn't much academically, got into Oxford!
I don't believe we've seen "peak Kipper". I believe the current split on the right is so serious, it may never heal. I suspect, on a ten year view, that UKIP will become a serious force.
*But*
They do need to improve their local and ground games. They need to be winning local by-elections, they need to be holding the seats they own, and they need to establish a track record of competent local governance. Otherwise, I think they will suffer from SDP**2 problem: with a high teens share, but a poor ability to turn votes into seats.
As an aside: I think (relatively) competent local governance in the 90s was one of the reasons the LibDems were able to attract tactical votes. UKIP would be wise to copy this focus.
I agree. Most of those saying UKIP are finished are, funnily enough, precisely the same people who hold them most in contempt and always have done, so I don't think we should take their views too seriously. People like Matthew Parris and Iain Dale for example.
And people like me, who have been treating the UKIP threat seriously for years are still warning about it. Seriously, we now have the Swedish Democrats on 25%, the True Finns on 19%, the Danish People's Party on 20%. We'd have to be stupid to write-off UKIP when there looks like there will be a constant immigration crisis across Europe for the next five years, plus an EU referendum placing them on one side and the other three parties on the other.
Right now the government is in their honeymoon period, and it's natural they will benefit more from right-wingers giving them the benefit of the doubt. But dissatisfaction sets in over the course of a parliament. It always does.
Ha Ha. Someone's cranked up the anger volume to 11.
C'mon, tim, we need you back (until Sept 10th). Tell us what you really feel.
Tories and Trots are #intenselyrelaxed about Corbyn. All the New/sensiblish Labour media, spads and politicos and geeks (Tim, Hattie, AndyB, Hodges, Rentoul, Southie, Monty) are all heading to a state of meltdown. But Tim is winning this contest.
Not this Tory. If I had a vote it would be for Kendall with no transfers. But I don't believe in 'interfering' with opponents' internal electoral processes.
@JohnO I've never joined a political party. Labour has no reason to exclude me ! Unless they believe in thought crimes
OT All non mainstream parties have a problem with local politics. The point about UKIP Cllrs agreeing on the park gates is well made - what would a UKIP Council look like/do? They're not bound by any over-arching principles, and they're often not plausible human beings.
Even Labour and Conservatives have a struggle finding 35 sensible people in a District/Borough to form an administration. When I was a Council Leader with 25-30 Tories in my group, if you discounted the senile, the incompetent and the dangerously right wing that left you with about 12-15 who you might allow to have any responsibility.
Ha Ha. Someone's cranked up the anger volume to 11.
C'mon, tim, we need you back (until Sept 10th). Tell us what you really feel.
Actually I DO wish tim would come back. He was a curmudgeonly old bastard, but he was often astute, and sometimes very funny. He'd be good value on Corbyn.
Oh, I completely agree...I might e-mail him (we occasionally keep in touch)...but I'm sure he's still reading pb if no longer contributing. And he pays all his bets at once and no complaints.
Cool. Try and entice him back on. Tell him I promise not to tease him, on here, about his real life (as long as he promises the same in return). The PB Left is in abject disarray. It needs Tim!
FPT Mr Evershed says (re defence of Corbyn/NP -- ''Sweden is not in NATO. Blair has meetings with Hamas and other dubious otrganisations. Conservative and Labour governments and leaders have had meetings with the IRA. Why would you not talk to your enemies? These are not outlandish actions and policies.''
Once again, the problem is not that Corbyn meets with these people. It's that he speaks of them as friends and publicly praises them. This has been repeated so many times, left wingers on here are now being very knowingly dishonest to pretend the debate is just about whether you meet with them or not.
OT All non mainstream parties have a problem with local politics. The point about UKIP Cllrs agreeing on the park gates is well made - what would a UKIP Council look like/do? They're not bound by any over-arching principles, and they're often not plausible human beings.
Even Labour and Conservatives have a struggle finding 35 sensible people in a District/Borough to form an administration. When I was a Council Leader with 25-30 Tories in my group, if you discounted the senile, the incompetent and the dangerously right wing that left you with about 12-15 who you might allow to have any responsibility.
I should say that the Labour opposition were IMO much, much worse!!!
As I was out walking young Trotsky who is becoming increasingly more animated at the prospect of Jezza becoming leader, it struck me just how stupid it was of Cameron to say he wouldn't serve a full term.
If I were him, I would be furious with those pre election polls. Seeing how Labour's leadership election has descended into farce, does Cameron really want to possibly inflict this on his party and remove himself, the Tories greatest electoral asset, from the equation.
@tnewtondunn: Knives truly out now for Ed Miliband over #Labourleadership. A senior former Cabinet minister just told me: "The man's a f***ing w***er".
Oh dear, Ed’s parting gift to Labour does appear to have upset a few. - Can’t think why…!
Wrong George Bush imo. Spectator subbing is not what it was. In any case, the article is probably wrong. The IRA stuff is old hat, and probably most voters hold no brief for any side in the Middle East. If I were CCHQ, I'd be looking at a quite different issue from the ones named; CCHQ is probably ahead of me.
The IRA stuff is old hat?
Sinn Fein are right now at risk of being excluded from Stormont, thanks to a murder last week by the IRA.
Jez probably thinks the killing was justified, because Fallujah.
Is it true the British state colluded with Loyalists?
The difficulty with dragging up all of Corbyn's skeletons is that many folks will take time to take a hard look at the UK's role in the world over the last few decades - many will not like what they find. Our role in Afghanistan during the 1980s would be a good place to start. Also need to consider the actions of our allies e.g.
The Conservatives fought the last election on the basis that they would be the "Continuation Coalition" Government. Now that they have been able to worm their way into an overall majority, they are coming out in their true colours. They can´t play that particular trick twice. And the moderate Tory MPs - I need reminding which ones they are - are being contaminated by the policies of the Tory hardliners. No first time incumbency there, I think!
It's a possibility. It really does depend how hardline the Tories as a whole go, particularly if they feel the next election is already in the bag and get incautious. But it is not a certainty they will be so foolish, and it requires a big shift for the LDs to get back to where they were. Not impossible, granted, but being reliant on the Tories messing up by going too hardline is risky for them as it is out of their own hands.
How do you mean, Mr Kle, "get incautious"? They became incautious from Day One. All the good Lib Dem environmental policies, for example, which were implemented by the Coalition Government, making it the greenest government ever, have been scrapped. And Osborne has given the green light for international fracking businesses to over-ride the interests of ordinary citizens and proper planning, so that they can make a quick buck and blow the consequences.
OT All non mainstream parties have a problem with local politics. The point about UKIP Cllrs agreeing on the park gates is well made - what would a UKIP Council look like/do? They're not bound by any over-arching principles, and they're often not plausible human beings.
Even Labour and Conservatives have a struggle finding 35 sensible people in a District/Borough to form an administration. When I was a Council Leader with 25-30 Tories in my group, if you discounted the senile, the incompetent and the dangerously right wing that left you with about 12-15 who you might allow to have any responsibility.
We have a Group of 33 (out of 60) and I've been Council leader for over five years now. Never had that problem and the quality of the team is arguably the highest since the Borough's creation in 1974.
Good performance by the LDs in Camborne. If there is to be a Lib Dem revival (increasingly likely if Corbyn wins the leadership) it will begin in the southwest of England, their ancient redoubt.
They're like fungi, the Libs. Even when you can't see any fruit on the ground, the mycelial network still exists, invisibly, under the soil. And after the first autumn frosts they might sprout again very quickly.
I've never thought they were dead and buried. We're talking about a political tradition or one form or another going back two centuries. Liberalism may be a minority brand but it's quite strongly ingrained. A lot of the great and the good would probably describe themselves as liberal, including people in the judiciary, universities and public officials. Liberalism collapsed in the 20th century but after the war you had one nation Tories on one side and SDP Labour politicians like Wilson, Jenkins and Healy on the other side. The future could be much more fertile territory for them. Is the current party up to it though?
OT All non mainstream parties have a problem with local politics. The point about UKIP Cllrs agreeing on the park gates is well made - what would a UKIP Council look like/do? They're not bound by any over-arching principles, and they're often not plausible human beings.
Even Labour and Conservatives have a struggle finding 35 sensible people in a District/Borough to form an administration. When I was a Council Leader with 25-30 Tories in my group, if you discounted the senile, the incompetent and the dangerously right wing that left you with about 12-15 who you might allow to have any responsibility.
We have a Group of 33 (out of 60) and I've been Council leader for over five years now. Never had that problem and the quality of the team is arguably the highest since the Borough's creation in 1974.
Lucky you - and as a still active Leader you would say that wouldn't you :-)
Of course it may have changed since Tories looked like winning. My active political career lasted from 1999-2006, what one might call the wilderness years!
@tnewtondunn: Knives truly out now for Ed Miliband over #Labourleadership. A senior former Cabinet minister just told me: "The man's a f***ing w***er".
Oh dear, Ed’s parting gift to Labour does appear to have upset a few. - Can’t think why…!
This is one thing I don't blame Ed Miliband for; there was a 35 MP minimum, and it was there for a reason.
The MPs who pushed to include someone they did not really want as leader have only themselves to blame.
OT All non mainstream parties have a problem with local politics. The point about UKIP Cllrs agreeing on the park gates is well made - what would a UKIP Council look like/do? They're not bound by any over-arching principles, and they're often not plausible human beings.
Even Labour and Conservatives have a struggle finding 35 sensible people in a District/Borough to form an administration. When I was a Council Leader with 25-30 Tories in my group, if you discounted the senile, the incompetent and the dangerously right wing that left you with about 12-15 who you might allow to have any responsibility.
Looks like Dave has taken his first swipe at Corbyn
What has he said?
"Comparing American soldiers to ISIL is absolutely the wrong approach".
Too gentlemanly a response. Something along the lines of "I'm sure there must be someone in Labour who understands how evil IS is" would be better.
Don't get into "whataboutery" or comparisons. Just focus on the key message - that JC appears to downplay IS's evil nature and that this may reflect a wider Labour problem with Islamism.
@tnewtondunn: Knives truly out now for Ed Miliband over #Labourleadership. A senior former Cabinet minister just told me: "The man's a f***ing w***er".
Oh dear, Ed’s parting gift to Labour does appear to have upset a few. - Can’t think why…!
This is one thing I don't blame Ed Miliband for; there was a 35 MP minimum, and it was there for a reason.
The MPs who pushed to include someone they did not really want as leader have only themselves to blame.
The Conservatives fought the last election on the basis that they would be the "Continuation Coalition" Government. Now that they have been able to worm their way into an overall majority, they are coming out in their true colours. They can´t play that particular trick twice. And the moderate Tory MPs - I need reminding which ones they are - are being contaminated by the policies of the Tory hardliners. No first time incumbency there, I think!
It's a possibility. It really does depend how hardline the Tories as a whole go, particularly if they feel the next election is already in the bag and get incautious. But it is not a certainty they will be so foolish, and it requires a big shift for the LDs to get back to where they were. Not impossible, granted, but being reliant on the Tories messing up by going too hardline is risky for them as it is out of their own hands.
How do you mean, Mr Kle, "get incautious"? They became incautious from Day One. All the good Lib Dem environmental policies, for example, which were implemented by the Coalition Government, making it the greenest government ever, have been scrapped. And Osborne has given the green light for international fracking businesses to over-ride the interests of ordinary citizens and proper planning, so that they can make a quick buck and blow the consequences.
I do not believe environmental policies, on their own, would be enough to dent the 'probably ok' impression the Tories currently have with swathes of voters in places like the SW. I don't think enough people care about such things, at least not so much they ignore the other bits they might like, or at least prefer to the other governing option alternative. By 'get incautious' I mean do enough - and dropping those policies may well be a part of it - to shift their image significantly enough in the region that those who abandoned the LDs a) desert the Tores and b) see the LDs as the best alternative in the area.
It could happen. I cannot see it happening under Cameron however - his reputation as a moderate is pretty well established, even as some argue that is his greatest strength, making significant changes seem less significant.
As I was out walking young Trotsky who is becoming increasingly more animated at the prospect of Jezza becoming leader, it struck me just how stupid it was of Cameron to say he wouldn't serve a full term.
If I were him, I would be furious with those pre election polls. Seeing how Labour's leadership election has descended into farce, does Cameron really want to possibly inflict this on his party and remove himself, the Tories greatest electoral asset, from the equation.
I don’t think the polls had any influence on Cameron’s decision, especially as his comment was based on winning the GE2015 which was the opposite of what was expected by most.
PS, Clever mutt - glad to hear Trotsky is keeping abreast of UK politics.
Looks like Dave has taken his first swipe at Corbyn
What has he said?
"Comparing American soldiers to ISIL is absolutely the wrong approach".
Too gentlemanly a response. Something along the lines of "I'm sure there must be someone in Labour who understands how evil IS is" would be better.
Don't get into "whataboutery" or comparisons. Just focus on the key message - that JC appears to downplay IS's evil nature and that this may reflect a wider Labour problem with Islamism.
Cameron's pacing himself, wait until after Corbyn is elected.
The concern about immigration recorded in the MORI issues index isn't feeding through to increased UKIP support either in council by-elections or in the polls.
I think Farage's shenanigans post election, are a real hindrance to UKIP now.
Th Lib Dems are reasonably invisible at a nationwide level now, as UKIP also seem to be whilst the attention and spotlight is turned to Labour.
Yet the yellow peril do seem to be producing good results and UKIP falling back. Away from our chitter chatter here, and the Westminster bubble I get the sense there is much more grass roots work being done by the Lib Dems, and perhaps not enough by UKIP ?
It is almost certainly lack of ground game. One of those by-elections above had no local campaigning whatsoever. I think everyone is concentrating on the upcoming referendum. The idea that the drop in support is due to Farage's resignation and unresignation is pure Westminster bubble stuff.
I'm not talking about that, I'm talking about the way he treated Suzanne Evans, the way he cut off his nose to spite his face over Short money, to name but two.
Short money is not well known outside of the Westminster bubble. I presume you mean how she was banned from giving interviews? It took a while for me to remember that happened, so again is your average man/woman on the street going to remember it? Doubtful.
Again you miss the point. I'll give you thirty mins to try and understand the point I'm making, then I'll explain it to you.
I'll give you a clue, it isn't about the average man/woman on the street.
Wrong George Bush imo. Spectator subbing is not what it was. In any case, the article is probably wrong. The IRA stuff is old hat, and probably most voters hold no brief for any side in the Middle East. If I were CCHQ, I'd be looking at a quite different issue from the ones named; CCHQ is probably ahead of me.
The IRA stuff is old hat?
Sinn Fein are right now at risk of being excluded from Stormont, thanks to a murder last week by the IRA.
Jez probably thinks the killing was justified, because Fallujah.
Is it true the British state colluded with Loyalists?
The difficulty with dragging up all of Corbyn's skeletons is that many folks will take time to take a hard look at the UK's role in the world over the last few decades - many will not like what they find. Our role in Afghanistan during the 1980s would be a good place to start. Also need to consider the actions of our allies e.g.
@tnewtondunn: Knives truly out now for Ed Miliband over #Labourleadership. A senior former Cabinet minister just told me: "The man's a f***ing w***er".
Oh dear, Ed’s parting gift to Labour does appear to have upset a few. - Can’t think why…!
Ed losing a general election that he was expected to walk in may end up as only the second worst thing he has done to the Labour Party this year. When you think about it that is quite an achievement.
You change people from being alive people... to being dead people, to purify democracy.... No one has done more to purge the ballot boxes than the Voter Colonel
Regarding UKIP's prospects, the big danger for them is of course the referendum. Firstly there is likely to be an almighty spat in the lead-up, because they don't have a coherent alternative to offer and and bound to squabble about whether, for example, the UK should enter into an EEA-type arrangement which would mean no more 'control of our borders' than we have now. They are also likely to squabble a lot about personalities: will Farage lead the campaign?
And then there will be the fallout from the Stay In result which the referendum will produce.
Politics is an uncertain business, of course - just ask Douglas Alexander or Ed Balls. All the same, I remain of the view that GE2015 probably was peak kipper.
@tnewtondunn: Knives truly out now for Ed Miliband over #Labourleadership. A senior former Cabinet minister just told me: "The man's a f***ing w***er".
Oh dear, Ed’s parting gift to Labour does appear to have upset a few. - Can’t think why…!
Ed losing a general election that he was expected to walk in may end up as only the second worst thing he has done to the Labour Party this year. When you think about it that is quite an achievement.
Possibly during the few frenetic weeks of the campaign itself, but for most of the last Parliament, the prevailing sentiment on the Labour benches was that with Ed they were doomed to defeat. Remember his catastrophic 2014 conference speech in which the deficit somehow never made an appearance.
...It seemed like a brilliant idea so I signed up to become a Labour Party member, excited at the possible prospects of what it would entail. A few months later and it remains the stupidest thing I’ve done all year. (OK, this might be an over-exaggeration, but it comes pretty close.)
The Labour Party have sent me 393 emails so far. That doesn’t include the many emails I’ve deleted from my inbox, or the ones I missed as I created a tally chart of all the emails I’ve received from the leader, deputy leader and London mayoral candidates. So far, they’ve been worse than my 9-year-old sister who has just discovered email and regularly updates me with her day-to-day activities. When I clicked the ‘unsubscribe’ button, opting only for the important emails, I got another email asking, yet again, “Will you join me?” It reminded me of a needy ex who can’t quite grasp with the fact that the relationship is over.
Perhaps the worst thing about the emails are the downright shitty subject lines they’re given. “Tessa is a star, she’s Labour’s Kylie”, reads one. “What a load of ballots”, reads the other. Stella Creasy asked me what would make me come to meetings more, “PowerPoint presentations or cookbooks?” Tessa Jowell wants to know what my “fondest childhood memory” is...
Looks like Dave has taken his first swipe at Corbyn
What has he said?
"Comparing American soldiers to ISIL is absolutely the wrong approach".
Too gentlemanly a response. Something along the lines of "I'm sure there must be someone in Labour who understands how evil IS is" would be better.
Don't get into "whataboutery" or comparisons. Just focus on the key message - that JC appears to downplay IS's evil nature and that this may reflect a wider Labour problem with Islamism.
Cameron's pacing himself, wait until after Corbyn is elected.
Premature attacks might see Labour reject Corbyn
The Daily Mail has it's anti-Corbyn stuff in at ~ column 67 on the website.
The Conservatives fought the last election on the basis that they would be the "Continuation Coalition" Government. Now that they have been able to worm their way into an overall majority, they are coming out in their true colours. They can´t play that particular trick twice. And the moderate Tory MPs - I need reminding which ones they are - are being contaminated by the policies of the Tory hardliners. No first time incumbency there, I think!
It's a possibility. It really does depend how hardline the Tories as a whole go, particularly if they feel the next election is already in the bag and get incautious. But it is not a certainty they will be so foolish, and it requires a big shift for the LDs to get back to where they were. Not impossible, granted, but being reliant on the Tories messing up by going too hardline is risky for them as it is out of their own hands.
How do you mean, Mr Kle, "get incautious"? They became incautious from Day One. All the good Lib Dem environmental policies, for example, which were implemented by the Coalition Government, making it the greenest government ever, have been scrapped. And Osborne has given the green light for international fracking businesses to over-ride the interests of ordinary citizens and proper planning, so that they can make a quick buck and blow the consequences.
I do not believe environmental policies, on their own, would be enough to dent the 'probably ok' impression the Tories currently have with swathes of voters in places like the SW. I don't think enough people care about such things, at least not so much they ignore the other bits they might like, or at least prefer to the other governing option alternative. By 'get incautious' I mean do enough - and dropping those policies may well be a part of it - to shift their image significantly enough in the region that those who abandoned the LDs a) desert the Tores and b) see the LDs as the best alternative in the area.
It could happen. I cannot see it happening under Cameron however - his reputation as a moderate is pretty well established, even as some argue that is his greatest strength, making significant changes seem less significant.
I can tell you that many, many people are cheering that the risk of turbine blight has greatly receded across the SW under this Govt..
Wrong George Bush imo. Spectator subbing is not what it was. In any case, the article is probably wrong. The IRA stuff is old hat, and probably most voters hold no brief for any side in the Middle East. If I were CCHQ, I'd be looking at a quite different issue from the ones named; CCHQ is probably ahead of me.
The IRA stuff is old hat?
Sinn Fein are right now at risk of being excluded from Stormont, thanks to a murder last week by the IRA.
Jez probably thinks the killing was justified, because Fallujah.
Is it true the British state colluded with Loyalists?
The difficulty with dragging up all of Corbyn's skeletons is that many folks will take time to take a hard look at the UK's role in the world over the last few decades - many will not like what they find. Our role in Afghanistan during the 1980s would be a good place to start. Also need to consider the actions of our allies e.g.
Ha Ha. Someone's cranked up the anger volume to 11.
C'mon, tim, we need you back (until Sept 10th). Tell us what you really feel.
Actually I DO wish tim would come back. He was a curmudgeonly old bastard, but he was often astute, and sometimes very funny. He'd be good value on Corbyn.
Oh, I completely agree...I might e-mail him (we occasionally keep in touch)...but I'm sure he's still reading pb if no longer contributing. And he pays all his bets at once and no complaints.
Perhaps OGH should, as we enter a new golden age of Corbynism, issue a general amnesty for all PB recalcitrants and ne'er-do-wells and welcome them back to the ample bosom of PB.
OT All non mainstream parties have a problem with local politics. The point about UKIP Cllrs agreeing on the park gates is well made - what would a UKIP Council look like/do? They're not bound by any over-arching principles, and they're often not plausible human beings.
Even Labour and Conservatives have a struggle finding 35 sensible people in a District/Borough to form an administration. When I was a Council Leader with 25-30 Tories in my group, if you discounted the senile, the incompetent and the dangerously right wing that left you with about 12-15 who you might allow to have any responsibility.
We have a Group of 33 (out of 60) and I've been Council leader for over five years now. Never had that problem and the quality of the team is arguably the highest since the Borough's creation in 1974.
And that's Surrey for you I guess; I must say yours do look like a reasonably sensible and competent bunch in their pictures!
The Conservatives fought the last election on the basis that they would be the "Continuation Coalition" Government. Now that they have been able to worm their way into an overall majority, they are coming out in their true colours. They can´t play that particular trick twice. And the moderate Tory MPs - I need reminding which ones they are - are being contaminated by the policies of the Tory hardliners. No first time incumbency there, I think!
It's a possibility. It really does depend how hardline the Tories as a whole go, particularly if they feel the next election is already in the bag and get incautious. But it is not a certainty they will be so foolish, and it requires a big shift for the LDs to get back to where they were. Not impossible, granted, but being reliant on the Tories messing up by going too hardline is risky for them as it is out of their own hands.
How do you mean, Mr Kle, "get incautious"? They became incautious from Day One. All the good Lib Dem environmental policies, for example, which were implemented by the Coalition Government, making it the greenest government ever, have been scrapped. And Osborne has given the green light for international fracking businesses to over-ride the interests of ordinary citizens and proper planning, so that they can make a quick buck and blow the consequences.
I do not believe environmental policies, on their own, would be enough to dent the 'probably ok' impression the Tories currently have with swathes of voters in places like the SW. I don't think enough people care about such things, at least not so much they ignore the other bits they might like, or at least prefer to the other governing option alternative. By 'get incautious' I mean do enough - and dropping those policies may well be a part of it - to shift their image significantly enough in the region that those who abandoned the LDs a) desert the Tores and b) see the LDs as the best alternative in the area.
It could happen. I cannot see it happening under Cameron however - his reputation as a moderate is pretty well established, even as some argue that is his greatest strength, making significant changes seem less significant.
I can tell you that many, many people are cheering that the risk of turbine blight has greatly receded across the SW under this Govt..
I believe it. But former and potential future LDs are perhaps more likely to either like or put up with opposition to such changes if there are enough other deviations from the Cameroon approach to put them off the Tories. Though it's a long way back. I swear, even Labour people I meet in the SW seem a little Blue.
@tnewtondunn: Knives truly out now for Ed Miliband over #Labourleadership. A senior former Cabinet minister just told me: "The man's a f***ing w***er".
Oh dear, Ed’s parting gift to Labour does appear to have upset a few. - Can’t think why…!
This is one thing I don't blame Ed Miliband for; there was a 35 MP minimum, and it was there for a reason.
The MPs who pushed to include someone they did not really want as leader have only themselves to blame.
This election is an object lesson in never, ever, EVER feeling sorry for your political opponents.
Those who nominated him now have the worst of all worlds. They can't even call for a new leadership election and refuse to nominate him next time - he will automatically be on the ballot without needing their help.
It's like some crazed entomologist has released deathwatch beetle, cockroaches, bedbugs and malarial mosquitoes into the Labour Party....then sat down for a quiet night watching the telly.
It could happen. I cannot see it happening under Cameron however - his reputation as a moderate is pretty well established, even as some argue that is his greatest strength, making significant changes seem less significant.
No doubt Mr Cameron seems very moderate to all the hard-line Tories, Mr Kle, but the people I mix with regard him as a total sham and a fraud. The reputation which he worked so hard to conjure up before 2005, now lies in tatters. The only good thing that can be said about him is that he is not Osborne.
Regarding UKIP's prospects, the big danger for them is of course the referendum. Firstly there is likely to be an almighty spat in the lead-up, because they don't have a coherent alternative to offer and and bound to squabble about whether, for example, the UK should enter into an EEA-type arrangement which would mean no more 'control of our borders' than we have now. They are also likely to squabble a lot about personalities: will Farage lead the campaign?
And then there will be the fallout from the Stay In result which the referendum will produce.
Politics is an uncertain business, of course - just ask Douglas Alexander or Ed Balls. All the same, I remain of the view that GE2015 probably was peak kipper.
As rcs1000 explained to me on here, EEA offers a lot more control of borders than we have now: we would be able to exclude non-workers and would not have to provide any benefits at all.
A Stay In result would also be better for UKIP's electoral prospects than a Brexit would. Doubly so if the deal that Cameron presents to the public turns out to be worse than he claims it is.
I went to a Russell Group uni, and networking there has been non-existent job-wise. I then went to a top business school where probably 25% of the class were from the super-wealthy. Networking there is clearly important, although I personally have not used or benefitted from it in my line of work.
My own personal network I have developed professionally, however, is crucial to my business.
Very interesting re your point on Russell Group unis. Everything that I've heard would assume it'd be the opposite!
People who have benefited from an Old Boys Network will deny it on a conscious and/or subconscious basis, they are very much unreliable narrators.
This is a pretty basic human trait and works in the opposite direction. If things go right, the natural human instinct is to praise yourself and deny external influence, while if things go wrong you blame others and comfort yourself.
Andy Mastermind Burnham even did it. In what universe do you add candidates to split your own vote???
Andy Burnham has said he's open to giving Corbyn a "helping hand", as long as it wouldn't provide his leftwing rival with an "artificial" level of support.
I hear Burnham would be happy to lend one or two supporters to squeak Corbyn over the line, but wouldn't want to hand over a whole batch. Jitters remain in the Burnham camp about "shy Cooper" supporters who are yet to come out of the woodwork, which mean they don't want to give away more nominations than necessary. (Burnham and Yvette Cooper currently have the greatest parliamentary backing, with 60 and 43 nominations, respectively). http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/06/jeremy-corbyn-against-charity-nominations-would-he-accept-few-coppers-andy-burnham
@tnewtondunn: Knives truly out now for Ed Miliband over #Labourleadership. A senior former Cabinet minister just told me: "The man's a f***ing w***er".
Oh dear, Ed’s parting gift to Labour does appear to have upset a few. - Can’t think why…!
This is one thing I don't blame Ed Miliband for; there was a 35 MP minimum, and it was there for a reason.
The MPs who pushed to include someone they did not really want as leader have only themselves to blame.
This election is an object lesson in never, ever, EVER feeling sorry for your political opponents.
Those who nominated him now have the worst of all worlds. They can't even call for a new leadership election and refuse to nominate him next time - he will automatically be on the ballot without needing their help.
It's like some crazed entomologist has released deathwatch beetle, cockroaches, bedbugs and malarial mosquitoes into the Labour Party....then sat down for a quiet night watching the telly.
It could happen. I cannot see it happening under Cameron however - his reputation as a moderate is pretty well established, even as some argue that is his greatest strength, making significant changes seem less significant.
No doubt Mr Cameron seems very moderate to all the hard-line Tories, Mr Kle, but the people I mix with regard him as a total sham and a fraud. The reputation which he worked so hard to conjure up before 2005, now lies in tatters. The only good thing that can be said about him is that he is not Osborne.
I think you are underestimating Cameron, quite frankly. I've voted LD in every GE I've been able (it was a close run thing this time though, in the end I voted for them as they'd made the most effort in my seat, I almost voted Green for humour value - it's not really ideological as I wanted the coalition to continue, not because I am a LD. I also thought Ed M was ok and would win easily) and the thing about Cameron is he is not scary, or hasn't been to date at any rate. He's moderate to hard line Tories, but he's also moderate 'for a Tory' to people who have just proven they are willing to vote for that.
You say that reputation lies in tatters, and I again I can see the possibility of that occuring, depending on what he does, but I think you are calling it too soon.
As rcs1000 explained to me on here, EEA offers a lot more control of borders than we have now: we would be able to exclude non-workers and would not have to provide any benefits at all.
A tiny difference, and one which will in any case be partially addressed by the renegotiation (that's one concession Cameron will get). EU workers come here to, you know, work, which they do very successfully (Cameron has created more jobs for French men and women than Hollande has). Those UKIP voters who are motivated by immigration will be extremely confused, and not a little disgruntled, to discover that leaving the EU wouldn't make any discernible difference. You can be sure that the Stay In side will make this point, and ruthlessly exploit the inconsistency between the arguments that leaving would mean we could control our borders, and that leaving wouldn't be an economic risk because we'd enter into a trade treaty with the EU.
I went to a Russell Group uni, and networking there has been non-existent job-wise. I then went to a top business school where probably 25% of the class were from the super-wealthy. Networking there is clearly important, although I personally have not used or benefitted from it in my line of work.
My own personal network I have developed professionally, however, is crucial to my business.
Very interesting re your point on Russell Group unis. Everything that I've heard would assume it'd be the opposite!
People who have benefited from an Old Boys Network will deny it on a conscious and/or subconscious basis, they are very much unreliable narrators.
This is a pretty basic human trait and works in the opposite direction. If things go right, the natural human instinct is to praise yourself and deny external influence, while if things go wrong you blame others and comfort yourself.
I don't think that's fair. I have benefitted from networking in my professional life (albeit in a network of women as well as men!) but I also went to a Russell Group university and agree there was no networking there at all.
OT All non mainstream parties have a problem with local politics. The point about UKIP Cllrs agreeing on the park gates is well made - what would a UKIP Council look like/do? They're not bound by any over-arching principles, and they're often not plausible human beings.
Even Labour and Conservatives have a struggle finding 35 sensible people in a District/Borough to form an administration. When I was a Council Leader with 25-30 Tories in my group, if you discounted the senile, the incompetent and the dangerously right wing that left you with about 12-15 who you might allow to have any responsibility.
We have a Group of 33 (out of 60) and I've been Council leader for over five years now. Never had that problem and the quality of the team is arguably the highest since the Borough's creation in 1974.
And that's Surrey for you I guess; I must say yours do look like a reasonably sensible and competent bunch in their pictures!
Harrummph...Elmbridge will do...aye, we are also a pretty diverse crowd with a couple in their twenties (one serving in the Cabinet), a young local journalist, several in their thirties and forties etc. It's a great mix and a pleasure to serve with them.
On private school, I didn't even think that the third outcome was possible. Even Polly Toynbee who reportedly wasn't much academically, got into Oxford!
Indeed, even the absolute nuggets at my school got enough Highers and SYS to get into Uni. From memory the Uni acceptance rate was well over 80% (and this was back in the late eighties when the national acceptance rate would have been below 30%.
Ha Ha. Someone's cranked up the anger volume to 11.
C'mon, tim, we need you back (until Sept 10th). Tell us what you really feel.
Actually I DO wish tim would come back. He was a curmudgeonly old bastard, but he was often astute, and sometimes very funny. He'd be good value on Corbyn.
Oh, I completely agree...I might e-mail him (we occasionally keep in touch)...but I'm sure he's still reading pb if no longer contributing. And he pays all his bets at once and no complaints.
ALL his bets? Unless he has paid the equivalent into pb coffers as I suggested as a Plan B, tim still owes me a gold sovereign. I don't think there can be any doubt that Labour didn't achieve 34% at the General Election....
Ha Ha. Someone's cranked up the anger volume to 11.
C'mon, tim, we need you back (until Sept 10th). Tell us what you really feel.
Actually I DO wish tim would come back. He was a curmudgeonly old bastard, but he was often astute, and sometimes very funny. He'd be good value on Corbyn.
Oh, I completely agree...I might e-mail him (we occasionally keep in touch)...but I'm sure he's still reading pb if no longer contributing. And he pays all his bets at once and no complaints.
ALL his bets? Unless he has paid the equivalent into pb coffers as I suggested as a Plan B, tim still owes me a gold sovereign. I don't think there can be any doubt that Labour didn't achieve 34% at the General Election....
Hi MM, on two separate occasions I've offered to write to him on your behalf but had no reply from you. Not complaining. I'm happy to do so again - I'm sure he will pay.
Our role in Afghanistan in the 1980s was highly peripheral. The role of the US was perfectly moral: the USSR was far more of a threat to human life and liberty than the mujihadeen.
OT All non mainstream parties have a problem with local politics. The point about UKIP Cllrs agreeing on the park gates is well made - what would a UKIP Council look like/do? They're not bound by any over-arching principles, and they're often not plausible human beings.
Even Labour and Conservatives have a struggle finding 35 sensible people in a District/Borough to form an administration. When I was a Council Leader with 25-30 Tories in my group, if you discounted the senile, the incompetent and the dangerously right wing that left you with about 12-15 who you might allow to have any responsibility.
We have a Group of 33 (out of 60) and I've been Council leader for over five years now. Never had that problem and the quality of the team is arguably the highest since the Borough's creation in 1974.
And that's Surrey for you I guess; I must say yours do look like a reasonably sensible and competent bunch in their pictures!
Appearances are so deceptive.
Behind the seemingly benevolent dictator that is the Dear Leader of Hersham are a pair of unscrupulous scoundrels who plum the worst excesses of local government depravity.
One is a callow Latin Milanese type with a fervour for detailed political chicanery and the other is an aged drunken aristocrat with perverted historical delusions. A right rum pair they make as they pull the strings of daily life in deprived Surrey.
Andy Mastermind Burnham even did it. In what universe do you add candidates to split your own vote???
Andy Burnham has said he's open to giving Corbyn a "helping hand", as long as it wouldn't provide his leftwing rival with an "artificial" level of support.
I hear Burnham would be happy to lend one or two supporters to squeak Corbyn over the line, but wouldn't want to hand over a whole batch. Jitters remain in the Burnham camp about "shy Cooper" supporters who are yet to come out of the woodwork, which mean they don't want to give away more nominations than necessary. (Burnham and Yvette Cooper currently have the greatest parliamentary backing, with 60 and 43 nominations, respectively). http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/06/jeremy-corbyn-against-charity-nominations-would-he-accept-few-coppers-andy-burnham
@tnewtondunn: Knives truly out now for Ed Miliband over #Labourleadership. A senior former Cabinet minister just told me: "The man's a f***ing w***er".
Oh dear, Ed’s parting gift to Labour does appear to have upset a few. - Can’t think why…!
This is one thing I don't blame Ed Miliband for; there was a 35 MP minimum, and it was there for a reason.
The MPs who pushed to include someone they did not really want as leader have only themselves to blame.
This election is an object lesson in never, ever, EVER feeling sorry for your political opponents.
Those who nominated him now have the worst of all worlds. They can't even call for a new leadership election and refuse to nominate him next time - he will automatically be on the ballot without needing their help.
It's like some crazed entomologist has released deathwatch beetle, cockroaches, bedbugs and malarial mosquitoes into the Labour Party....then sat down for a quiet night watching the telly.
That act alone should rule Burnham out of any leadership race on the grounds of sheer stupidity. Anyone daft enough to do such a thing is clearly unfit to lead.
It's no wonder that Corbyn is leading the field, when faced with such clowns as Mascara Man and 'Look at my ovaries' Cooper.
Entryists would be wise to vote Kendall as first choice and Corbyn as second choice.
This puts the censors off the scent but allows a second preference for Corbyn to count since Kendall will be eliminated at the first stage.
How can this possibly be considered a fair electoral system when the party is looking which way your vote goes before deciding to exclude you from the ballot?
OT All non mainstream parties have a problem with local politics. The point about UKIP Cllrs agreeing on the park gates is well made - what would a UKIP Council look like/do? They're not bound by any over-arching principles, and they're often not plausible human beings.
Even Labour and Conservatives have a struggle finding 35 sensible people in a District/Borough to form an administration. When I was a Council Leader with 25-30 Tories in my group, if you discounted the senile, the incompetent and the dangerously right wing that left you with about 12-15 who you might allow to have any responsibility.
We have a Group of 33 (out of 60) and I've been Council leader for over five years now. Never had that problem and the quality of the team is arguably the highest since the Borough's creation in 1974.
And that's Surrey for you I guess; I must say yours do look like a reasonably sensible and competent bunch in their pictures!
Appearances are so deceptive.
Behind the seemingly benevolent dictator that is the Dear Leader of Hersham are a pair of unscrupulous scoundrels who plum the worst excesses of local government depravity.
One is a callow Latin Milanese type with a fervour for detailed political chicanery and the other is an aged drunken aristocrat with perverted historical delusions. A right rum pair they make as they pull the strings of daily life in deprived Surrey.
Ha Ha. Someone's cranked up the anger volume to 11.
C'mon, tim, we need you back (until Sept 10th). Tell us what you really feel.
Actually I DO wish tim would come back. He was a curmudgeonly old bastard, but he was often astute, and sometimes very funny. He'd be good value on Corbyn.
Oh, I completely agree...I might e-mail him (we occasionally keep in touch)...but I'm sure he's still reading pb if no longer contributing. And he pays all his bets at once and no complaints.
ALL his bets? Unless he has paid the equivalent into pb coffers as I suggested as a Plan B, tim still owes me a gold sovereign. I don't think there can be any doubt that Labour didn't achieve 34% at the General Election....
Hi MM, on two separate occasions I've offered to write to him on your behalf but had no reply from you. Not complaining. I'm happy to do so again - I'm sure he will pay.
Good Sir, I apologise that both of those occasions appear to have passed me by. I will be happy for him to top up site coffers.
Ha Ha. Someone's cranked up the anger volume to 11.
C'mon, tim, we need you back (until Sept 10th). Tell us what you really feel.
Actually I DO wish tim would come back. He was a curmudgeonly old bastard, but he was often astute, and sometimes very funny. He'd be good value on Corbyn.
Oh, I completely agree...I might e-mail him (we occasionally keep in touch)...but I'm sure he's still reading pb if no longer contributing. And he pays all his bets at once and no complaints.
ALL his bets? Unless he has paid the equivalent into pb coffers as I suggested as a Plan B, tim still owes me a gold sovereign. I don't think there can be any doubt that Labour didn't achieve 34% at the General Election....
Hi MM, on two separate occasions I've offered to write to him on your behalf but had no reply from you. Not complaining. I'm happy to do so again - I'm sure he will pay.
Good Sir, I apologise that both of those occasions appear to have passed me by. I will be happy for him to top up site coffers.
It was never about the gold....
Could you drop me an e-mail at john-oreilly@tiscali.co.uk with the details and I will forward it on to tim. For the unititiated, how much is a gold sovereign?
As rcs1000 explained to me on here, EEA offers a lot more control of borders than we have now: we would be able to exclude non-workers and would not have to provide any benefits at all.
A tiny difference, and one which will in any case be partially addressed by the renegotiation (that's one concession Cameron will get). EU workers come here to, you know, work, which they do very successfully (Cameron has created more jobs for French men and women than Hollande has). Those UKIP voters who are motivated by immigration will be extremely confused, and not a little disgruntled, to discover that leaving the EU wouldn't make any discernible difference. You can be sure that the Stay In side will make this point, and ruthlessly exploit the inconsistency between the arguments that leaving would mean we could control our borders, and that leaving wouldn't be an economic risk because we'd enter into a trade treaty with the EU.
On benefits, I think Cameron is only going for a three year ban, rather than a permanent one. That's a big difference. Also, the problem is the In side would have to argue that limiting benefits would only make a "tiny difference" thus undermining what they've achieved in their negotiation! Plus, I think the EEA means we can exclude NHS treatment without an insurance card - is Cameron going for that?
But yes, the importance of immigration is why Cameron will need to renegotiate firm limits beyond benefits changes, and also why the Out side will need to argue for a bilateral deal. Immigration is already the biggest issue to the public, and with a million illegal immigrants a year now coming to Europe, it won't go away.
Andy Mastermind Burnham even did it. In what universe do you add candidates to split your own vote???
Andy Burnham has said he's open to giving Corbyn a "helping hand", as long as it wouldn't provide his leftwing rival with an "artificial" level of support.
I hear Burnham would be happy to lend one or two supporters to squeak Corbyn over the line, but wouldn't want to hand over a whole batch. Jitters remain in the Burnham camp about "shy Cooper" supporters who are yet to come out of the woodwork, which mean they don't want to give away more nominations than necessary. (Burnham and Yvette Cooper currently have the greatest parliamentary backing, with 60 and 43 nominations, respectively). http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/06/jeremy-corbyn-against-charity-nominations-would-he-accept-few-coppers-andy-burnham
@tnewtondunn: Knives truly out now for Ed Miliband over #Labourleadership. A senior former Cabinet minister just told me: "The man's a f***ing w***er".
Oh dear, Ed’s parting gift to Labour does appear to have upset a few. - Can’t think why…!
This is one thing I don't blame Ed Miliband for; there was a 35 MP minimum, and it was there for a reason.
The MPs who pushed to include someone they did not really want as leader have only themselves to blame.
This election is an object lesson in never, ever, EVER feeling sorry for your political opponents.
Those who nominated him now have the worst of all worlds. They can't even call for a new leadership election and refuse to nominate him next time - he will automatically be on the ballot without needing their help.
It's like some crazed entomologist has released deathwatch beetle, cockroaches, bedbugs and malarial mosquitoes into the Labour Party....then sat down for a quiet night watching the telly.
That act alone should rule Burnham out of any leadership race on the grounds of sheer stupidity. Anyone daft enough to do such a thing is clearly unfit to lead.
It's no wonder that Corbyn is leading the field, when faced with such clowns as Mascara Man and 'Look at my ovaries' Cooper.
The concern about immigration recorded in the MORI issues index isn't feeding through to increased UKIP support either in council by-elections or in the polls.
I think Farage's shenanigans post election, are a real hindrance to UKIP now.
Th Lib Dems are reasonably invisible at a nationwide level now, as UKIP also seem to be whilst the attention and spotlight is turned to Labour.
Yet the yellow peril do seem to be producing good results and UKIP falling back. Away from our chitter chatter here, and the Westminster bubble I get the sense there is much more grass roots work being done by the Lib Dems, and perhaps not enough by UKIP ?
It is almost certainly lack of ground game. One of those by-elections above had no local campaigning whatsoever. I think everyone is concentrating on the upcoming referendum. The idea that the drop in support is due to Farage's resignation and unresignation is pure Westminster bubble stuff.
I'm not talking about that, I'm talking about the way he treated Suzanne Evans, the way he cut off his nose to spite his face over Short money, to name but two.
Short money is not well known outside of the Westminster bubble. I presume you mean how she was banned from giving interviews? It took a while for me to remember that happened, so again is your average man/woman on the street going to remember it? Doubtful.
Again you miss the point. I'll give you thirty mins to try and understand the point I'm making, then I'll explain it to you.
I'll give you a clue, it isn't about the average man/woman on the street.
Explain when you get the chance please.
A well organised party does well in these elections.
Party HQ is essential for being well organised, such as allocating resources/visits in these elections.
I would say in terms of seats, both UKIP and the Lib Dems had a very poor general election.
But the Lib Dems have been on up in council by-elections since then, whereas UKIP haven't.
It is down to party organisation, the UKIP general secretary resigned, Raheem Kassam resigned also following Farage's lead.
No on can say UKIP have been well organised or a model of efficiency since the election.
In the last year and a bit, millions have voted UKIP, you should be exploiting your canvass returns like the Lib Dems have in these elections.
That they haven't is down to Farage, who seems to be more interested in spats with fellow Kippers.
As I was out walking young Trotsky who is becoming increasingly more animated at the prospect of Jezza becoming leader, it struck me just how stupid it was of Cameron to say he wouldn't serve a full term.
If I were him, I would be furious with those pre election polls. Seeing how Labour's leadership election has descended into farce, does Cameron really want to possibly inflict this on his party and remove himself, the Tories greatest electoral asset, from the equation.
I don’t think the polls had any influence on Cameron’s decision, especially as his comment was based on winning the GE2015 which was the opposite of what was expected by most.
PS, Clever mutt - glad to hear Trotsky is keeping abreast of UK politics.
Trotsky is the most incredibly intelligent hound- and I say that in all seriousness.
So why do you think Cameron decided to serve notice?
@HurstLlama That's quite a good point, regarding the educational establishment being a vested interest.
@JossiasJessop I think networking may be beneficial if you go to somewhere like Eton, though.
Also good observation by @antifrank that seemingly the rise in concern about immigration has not benefited UKIP. Why?
I think the Tories are doing a good job of both raising concerns about immigration and gathering any support which isn't already with them on this issue - UKIP are looking increasingly irrelevant at the moment. Bizarrely one of UKIP's policies in Scotland during GE2015 was to reopen coal mines !!
In terms of the state v private school debate. I think the folks I know who went to private school fall into 3rds:
-1/3 who are highly motivated, academically strong and would've achieved from a state school background - they may succeed a bit quicker but things level out.
-1/3 who do better academically than they would've in the state sector, they are able to achieve modestly and may get a bit of a boost through networking.
- 1/3 who despite all of the benefits of a private education, for one reason and another don't amount to very much.
Folks in the 1st category don't tend to have the sense of entitlement which sadly many folks in the 2nd and 3rd categories have.
On the immigration issue, apparently 62% don't trust/believe in Cameron to sort out the Calais crisis! Yes, I think after their post-GE fallout they've become invisible. If they can't influence the debate now though, when can they?
On private school, I didn't even think that the third outcome was possible. Even Polly Toynbee who reportedly wasn't much academically, got into Oxford!
I went to a private school (for free) and Oxford and took another degree elsewhere, but I've never landed a job after an interview. Can't fake motivation!
Those at both the private school and Oxford whose parents were high earners were far more motivated by the need to gain sufficient income to maintain their standard of living.
I was brought up in a very frugal household and can live quite happily on the minimum level of income guaranteed by the welfare state (as it happens I'm only in receipt of tax credits and child benefit), so how do I look someone in the eye and tell them I'm really keen to ask how high when prompted to jump?
As I was out walking young Trotsky who is becoming increasingly more animated at the prospect of Jezza becoming leader, it struck me just how stupid it was of Cameron to say he wouldn't serve a full term.
If I were him, I would be furious with those pre election polls. Seeing how Labour's leadership election has descended into farce, does Cameron really want to possibly inflict this on his party and remove himself, the Tories greatest electoral asset, from the equation.
I don’t think the polls had any influence on Cameron’s decision, especially as his comment was based on winning the GE2015 which was the opposite of what was expected by most.
PS, Clever mutt - glad to hear Trotsky is keeping abreast of UK politics.
Trotsky is the most incredibly intelligent hound- and I say that in all seriousness.
So why do you think Cameron decided to serve notice?
... because he's been Tory leader almost 10 years already, PM for 5 and he's bluddy knackered?
On benefits, I think Cameron is only going for a three year ban, rather than a permanent one. That's a big difference. Also, the problem is the In side would have to argue that limiting benefits would only make a "tiny difference" thus undermining what they've achieved in their negotiation! Plus, I think the EEA means we can exclude NHS treatment without an insurance card - is Cameron going for that? .
Cameron will argue that he's already dealt with the problem. If the Outers get bogged down in trivial details like whether it's 3 years or 5 years or whatever they'll look like completely nutcases.
The lack of a coherent alternative plan, let alone one which they all agree on, is a really serious issue for the Out side, as I've been saying for years. Even now there is no sign that they are actually doing anything to address the issue, yet the referendum is now at most just over two years away, and may be a lot sooner.
Comments
A City trader who punched a man he thought had groped his wife in a Margaret Thatcher-themed nightclub was fined £100 today
http://bit.ly/1EHAB0c
This is a very unscientific position, and I am willing to be proved wrong by facts (as opposed to mere assertions).
There was an interview with GO. I wish the reporter had asked "Do you agree it's right that we are required to ask the EU for permission to do something like this".
http://www.suttontrust.com/newsarchive/one-third-of-mps-in-new-house-of-commons-was-privately-educated/
Mr Evershed says (re defence of Corbyn/NP --
''Sweden is not in NATO.
Blair has meetings with Hamas and other dubious otrganisations. Conservative and Labour governments and leaders have had meetings with the IRA. Why would you not talk to your enemies?
These are not outlandish actions and policies.''
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-warns-sweden-it-will-face-military-action-if-it-joins-nato-10331397.html
''Russia would take military "countermeasures" if Sweden were to join Nato, according to the Russian ambassodor.''
People comnig out of private schools are at least usually intelligent and thoughtful. Oxford makes them stupid and gets them into politics and media.
This should mean you will see further local election losses next May. It is only in May 2017, that you would expect to see some kind of LibDem recovery.
@tnewtondunn: Knives truly out now for Ed Miliband over #Labourleadership. A senior former Cabinet minister just told me: "The man's a f***ing w***er".
I have dozens of personal tutees. I make an effort at the start and then its up to them.
On private school, I didn't even think that the third outcome was possible. Even Polly Toynbee who reportedly wasn't much academically, got into Oxford!
Labour +10%
North Eastern Party +19%
UKIP +12%
LD +9%
Con +6%
Green +2%
That makes a total of 58% of increases. Who lost 58%? (Especially given the Labour Party on 42% won the seat last time...)
Right now the government is in their honeymoon period, and it's natural they will benefit more from right-wingers giving them the benefit of the doubt. But dissatisfaction sets in over the course of a parliament. It always does.
Even Labour and Conservatives have a struggle finding 35 sensible people in a District/Borough to form an administration. When I was a Council Leader with 25-30 Tories in my group, if you discounted the senile, the incompetent and the dangerously right wing that left you with about 12-15 who you might allow to have any responsibility.
If I were him, I would be furious with those pre election polls. Seeing how Labour's leadership election has descended into farce, does Cameron really want to possibly inflict this on his party and remove himself, the Tories greatest electoral asset, from the equation.
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/01/21/middleeast/saudi-beheading-video/
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/12/13/world/meast/saudi-arabia-beheading/
Tail wagging a fair bit now.
Of course it may have changed since Tories looked like winning. My active political career lasted from 1999-2006, what one might call the wilderness years!
This is one thing I don't blame Ed Miliband for; there was a 35 MP minimum, and it was there for a reason.
The MPs who pushed to include someone they did not really want as leader have only themselves to blame.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/tomphillips/the-29-stages-of-a-twitterstorm
Don't get into "whataboutery" or comparisons. Just focus on the key message - that JC appears to downplay IS's evil nature and that this may reflect a wider Labour problem with Islamism.
'And Osborne has given the green light for international fracking businesses to over-ride the interests of ordinary citizens'
Those same ordinary citizens that have been complaining for years that their energy bills are too expensive ?
It could happen. I cannot see it happening under Cameron however - his reputation as a moderate is pretty well established, even as some argue that is his greatest strength, making significant changes seem less significant.
PS, Clever mutt - glad to hear Trotsky is keeping abreast of UK politics.
Premature attacks might see Labour reject Corbyn
A month is the evolution of entire political credo....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWnFWclW0Qs
And then there will be the fallout from the Stay In result which the referendum will produce.
Politics is an uncertain business, of course - just ask Douglas Alexander or Ed Balls. All the same, I remain of the view that GE2015 probably was peak kipper.
Those who nominated him now have the worst of all worlds. They can't even call for a new leadership election and refuse to nominate him next time - he will automatically be on the ballot without needing their help.
It's like some crazed entomologist has released deathwatch beetle, cockroaches, bedbugs and malarial mosquitoes into the Labour Party....then sat down for a quiet night watching the telly.
A Stay In result would also be better for UKIP's electoral prospects than a Brexit would. Doubly so if the deal that Cameron presents to the public turns out to be worse than he claims it is.
This is a pretty basic human trait and works in the opposite direction. If things go right, the natural human instinct is to praise yourself and deny external influence, while if things go wrong you blame others and comfort yourself.
You say that reputation lies in tatters, and I again I can see the possibility of that occuring, depending on what he does, but I think you are calling it too soon.
This puts the censors off the scent but allows a second preference for Corbyn to count since Kendall will be eliminated at the first stage.
Behind the seemingly benevolent dictator that is the Dear Leader of Hersham are a pair of unscrupulous scoundrels who plum the worst excesses of local government depravity.
One is a callow Latin Milanese type with a fervour for detailed political chicanery and the other is an aged drunken aristocrat with perverted historical delusions. A right rum pair they make as they pull the strings of daily life in deprived Surrey.
That act alone should rule Burnham out of any leadership race on the grounds of sheer stupidity. Anyone daft enough to do such a thing is clearly unfit to lead.
It's no wonder that Corbyn is leading the field, when faced with such clowns as Mascara Man and 'Look at my ovaries' Cooper.
It was never about the gold....
http://www.buzzfeed.com/tomphillips/how-the-media-will-report-the-apocalypse
But yes, the importance of immigration is why Cameron will need to renegotiate firm limits beyond benefits changes, and also why the Out side will need to argue for a bilateral deal. Immigration is already the biggest issue to the public, and with a million illegal immigrants a year now coming to Europe, it won't go away.
It's no wonder that Corbyn is leading the field, when faced with such clowns as Mascara Man and 'Look at my ovaries' Cooper.
Party HQ is essential for being well organised, such as allocating resources/visits in these elections.
I would say in terms of seats, both UKIP and the Lib Dems had a very poor general election.
But the Lib Dems have been on up in council by-elections since then, whereas UKIP haven't.
It is down to party organisation, the UKIP general secretary resigned, Raheem Kassam resigned also following Farage's lead.
No on can say UKIP have been well organised or a model of efficiency since the election.
In the last year and a bit, millions have voted UKIP, you should be exploiting your canvass returns like the Lib Dems have in these elections.
That they haven't is down to Farage, who seems to be more interested in spats with fellow Kippers.
Although PriceHound were a bit silly to stock that kind of product.
So why do you think Cameron decided to serve notice?
Those at both the private school and Oxford whose parents were high earners were far more motivated by the need to gain sufficient income to maintain their standard of living.
I was brought up in a very frugal household and can live quite happily on the minimum level of income guaranteed by the welfare state (as it happens I'm only in receipt of tax credits and child benefit), so how do I look someone in the eye and tell them I'm really keen to ask how high when prompted to jump?
The lack of a coherent alternative plan, let alone one which they all agree on, is a really serious issue for the Out side, as I've been saying for years. Even now there is no sign that they are actually doing anything to address the issue, yet the referendum is now at most just over two years away, and may be a lot sooner.