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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP continues its run of losses in the latest round of cou
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP continues its run of losses in the latest round of council by-elections
Witney North on West Oxfordshire (Independent, elected as Conservative, defence)
Result: Conservatives 264 (34% -9%), Liberal Democrats 201 (26% +14%), Green Party 136 (17% -11%), Labour 114 (15% -2%), United Kingdom Independence Party 64 (8%, no candidate in 2012)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 63 (8%) on a swing of 11.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
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The problem is for the middle. People who 30 years ago could expect a reasonably comfortable middle-class life in a middle management or middling professional job with a middling property they own and even more importantly a relatively comfortable retirement pension is for a huge swathe of people completely and utterly gone.
Yet the yellow peril do seem to be producing good results and UKIP falling back. Away from our chitter chatter here, and the Westminster bubble I get the sense there is much more grass roots work being done by the Lib Dems, and perhaps not enough by UKIP ?
Jezbollah is the only story at the moment (unless Kim Jong Un decides to intervene, which makes you wonder what side Corbyn will end up on?)
Beheading Tories?
Based on only three council by-elections, 'though.
@HurstLlama That's quite a good point, regarding the educational establishment being a vested interest.
@JossiasJessop I think networking may be beneficial if you go to somewhere like Eton, though.
Also good observation by @antifrank that seemingly the rise in concern about immigration has not benefited UKIP. Why?
The North Eastern Party 214 19% - big gains for the new NE regionalists.
Mebynon Kernow 85 8% -12% - big loss for the Cornish nationalists.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34018497
Although we could perhaps do with a more stable Turkey atm, not a less stable one ...
I went to a Russell Group uni, and networking there has been non-existent job-wise. I then went to a top business school where probably 25% of the class were from the super-wealthy. Networking there is clearly important, although I personally have not used or benefitted from it in my line of work.
My own personal network I have developed professionally, however, is crucial to my business.
I just got my email containing my voting codes/instructions!
I think it entirely possible the Lib Dems will gain alot of councillors down there by 2020, whilst the Conservative seats are easily held at the GE.
I don't like female groups as a rule, but the absence of boys made knuckling down much easier IMO.
Re this supposed *networking* thing - complete piffle. I've never had any contact with my old school mates bar a wedding or two since my last day there. The nearest I got was paying £5 for a lifetime membership of the Old Girls Club newsletter, out of voyeuristic curiosity.
A surprisingly large number went off to become missionaries - very peculiar for non-denominational school with only a smattering of conspicuous church goers.
Tories and Kippers can be elected interchangeably at the local level for all I care.
For example
Somerton & Frome, Con Majority 20k
Taunton & Deane: Con Maj 15k
Cheltenham: Con Majority 6.5k
Yeovil: Con Majority 5k
Which party are "they" and "we" ?
Not something I'd take into account except for technical knowledge of how Parly works on a day-day basis.
Corbyn-Watson. No other candidates worthy of the cause.
Quite accurate comparisons exist between Saudi Arabia and ISIS.
Saudi doesn't behead people at random in the ISIS manner, but they have destroyed the archeological sites of Mecca (Abraham's Tomb etc) with extraordinarily similar justifications.
In the UK, Saudi influence in Mosques across the country has been a significant problem since the 1970s/1980s. It starts with funding then extends to fixing the tradition in line with Salafism etc.
One possible partial fix might be to insist on British only governance as a condition of charitable status.
Have voted
1) Kendall
2) Corbyn
3) Cooper
1) Eagle
2) Creasy
3) Nonce-finder General
4) Flint
'Nick Palmer @Nick4Broxtowe Jul 17
I'm supporting #YvetteForLabour and Stella Creasy for Deputy. Join me here'
We = Blue Lovelies
But I'll say no more, it is getting very bad tempered.
Sadly, it is a malaise that too many other MPs also suffer from.
I could see them winning Richmond in a by-election, and Twickenham at the general.
Which is like a doctor saying to a patient: well we've tried 3 types of antibiotic and they are not working, let's try some cyanide.
I'll give you a clue, it isn't about the average man/woman on the street.
A good mate went to Southampton. got a 2-1 in a physical science, and claims to have never once spoken to an academic member of staff.
In terms of the state v private school debate. I think the folks I know who went to private school fall into 3rds:
-1/3 who are highly motivated, academically strong and would've achieved from a state school background - they may succeed a bit quicker but things level out.
-1/3 who do better academically than they would've in the state sector, they are able to achieve modestly and may get a bit of a boost through networking.
- 1/3 who despite all of the benefits of a private education, for one reason and another don't amount to very much.
Folks in the 1st category don't tend to have the sense of entitlement which sadly many folks in the 2nd and 3rd categories have.
Stripping the bark from Jeremy Corbyn will be the easiest campaign in modern political history
http://bit.ly/1LoJyTX
Picking out a few key bits:
Well done the people of Scotland. They have stood up so strongly for
themselves that they have achieved a level of funding for public services
that if applied per head in our region would provide us with more than
£1billion per annum. Now it should be our turn. We demand nothing more but nothing less
than parity with the good people of the UK who live just beyond our border
We would scrap the Council Tax and replace it with an annual 1% levy on
the value of all houses (subject to a £50,000 threshold). Thus the owner
of a £200,000 property would be charged £1500 per annum based on
£150,000, the owner of a £2million property would be charged £19,500
based on £1,950,000 and the owner or tenant of a property worth
£100,000 would pay £500.
The North East Region encompasses more than 3000 square miles, more
than 2 million acres. A Land Value Tax on the unimproved value of land
would be affordable, would promote development and we’d aim to raise
£1 billion per annum to be spent on enterprise, jobs and reducing taxation
to promote opportunities. Small landholdings below a threshold will be
exempt.
NEP will demand the extension of HS2 to Edinburgh rather than
making do with a link to Leeds. Re‐routing some of the national
mainline trains would provide new services and raise the profile of
Sunderland, Hartlepool and Stockton.
And the moderate Tory MPs - I need reminding which ones they are - are being contaminated by the policies of the Tory hardliners. No first time incumbency there, I think!
LD voters seem especially keen to turn out as ever, not sure this necessarily heralds a great revival under the Blessed Farron.
I agree it's not looking great for UKIP though.
Watching the moderates toe the party line and go into bat for Corbyn is going to be hilarious.
So you'd think Labour would do worse in 2016, and the Tories better, but to quote Donald Rumsfeld, there's a few known unknowns.
'What is this other stuff done by ISIS which is good? Is it the rape and enslaving of Yazidi girls? Or pushing gays off tall buildings? Or maybe it is crucifixion?'
Give him a chance he's just going to check his weathercock.
While other people are rolling out the tumbrils, can I ask you a question about a more interesting subject?
Is there a thing with MPs (espcially Lab MPs?) and Eco-Houses?
You have yours, Bob Marshall-Andrews had his clifftop mole-manor in Pembrokeshire.
Are there any more?
Fine, Mr Cameron had his Tokenist Turbine which was always a gimmick. There's currently a local Tory MP near Derby building a rather impressive streamlined concrete blob in her front garden (Amanda Sollway?) that could be an eco-thing, or it could be a concrete orangery or aquarium.
Simba, Tabby, Tess, Millie, Orwell, Merlin, Pippin, May, Bumble, Ginger & Lunar.
Burnham campaign hints at challenge if it loses Labour leadership vote
Campaign director highlights concerns over potential Tory infiltration of election and calls for urgent meeting of rival campaigns
http://bit.ly/1E87XKA
*But*
They do need to improve their local and ground games. They need to be winning local by-elections, they need to be holding the seats they own, and they need to establish a track record of competent local governance. Otherwise, I think they will suffer from SDP**2 problem: with a high teens share, but a poor ability to turn votes into seats.
As an aside: I think (relatively) competent local governance in the 90s was one of the reasons the LibDems were able to attract tactical votes. UKIP would be wise to copy this focus.
...If you really want to feel the love for Jeremy, over to
https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/with_replies
http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/660/media/images/74080000/jpg/_74080982_queenhandshake.jpg
I think there should no Saudi funding of schools, madrassas, mosques or other institutions in this country. None. He who pays the piper calls the tune and the tune the Saudis play is a very nasty one indeed. On this, I am entirely with Lucky: we are far too craven to the Saudis and to the Qataris, who also fund terror. Governmental realpolitik is one thing but - and with apologies for the vulgarity - our position of bending over and holding our ankles with regard to these squalid regimes needs to stop. I have been saying this for time.
As for JC and the rape of Yazidi girls, we already know that in August 2014 the Stop the War campaign of which he is chair, opposed the U.S. action to help the Yazidis because it was the U.S. doing it.
Palmer has already voted. But I called him out on the previous thread because of his wholly unwarranted description of SO as "nasty". SO can look after himself but if NP does not want nasty things said of him he should not say it of others.