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The detail from the YouGov LAB leader polling which has Corbyn winning on 1st round pic.twitter.com/XGCF6DKPKF
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He's after Blair's 57% in 1994...
"Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party doesn't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Brighton, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!
"A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"
The question which it had been asked, and which it answered, was that it wouldn't count or announce separately the votes of how the Labour Party members voted, compared with how the recently-affiliated £3-paying supporters voted. There would be no reason to count them separately because they are all the same type of votes, of the same value, without there being separate sections like in the old electoral college.
There has never been any suggestion that the actual result of the election (i.e. the number of votes in each round of the AV election) would not be declared in full.
There will be no Stewards' Enquiry
I'm 50 next week.
Any advice from those who have survived this disaster?
http://www.thenational.scot/comment/james-kelly-beware-the-signs-that-the-honeymoon-may-be-ending-as-snp-policies-come-into-focus.6221
Revolutionary Committee of the Kuomintang
China Democratic League
China Democratic National Construction Association
China Association for Promoting Democracy
Chinese Peasants' and Workers' Democratic Party
Zhigongdang of China
Jiusan Society
Taiwan Democratic Self-Government League
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_the_People's_Republic_of_China
Looking like Corbyn's now a dead cert, not bad for a 100/1 shot.
**wishes his tenner had been a grand at that price!**
How much time remains for the Labour Party to come to its collective sense and choose someone electable?
Apparently, usually most people send their votes in within days. However, I wouldn't be surprised if people take longer this time (I'm personally still undecided between Burnham and Corbyn and don't intend to decide fully until as late as possible).
Not something Labour like to talk about.
A lesson to all politicians here in terms of what happens when you surround yourself with people who tell you what you want to hear, Burnham's career is effectively over and he only has himself to blame.
To think that Corbyn only got enough MP nominations to be on the ballot because Team Burnham thought it smart to "lend" him some
If that's not worth a titter, I don't know what is.
The current price bracket of 1.65-1.70 is (still) an absolute gift.
50 is nothing to worry about. It's 60 that suddenly jolts you - now that is old and you'll remember when you were 17, met someone in their 60s and decided they were ancient.
Politics are going to be huge fun for the next few years.
More seriously, are we now becoming a one-Party state, and, if so, is that not what most successful countries (the USA being the obvious exception) are? Entrepreneurship requires freedom of speech & action, but perhaps not as much of even those as we like to think (look at Asian tigers) - it does not require more than one governmental party.
Burnham's career is not necessarily over but his leadership ambitions may be. That said, even if he'd not lent (given, more accurately) Corbyn nominations, given his campaign since, he may well still have lost to Cooper.
Let the Labour Party elect a terrorist appeasing idiot if they must. We need a Stupid Party and Labour will do very well.
Will they hang around in the hope that the party will turn back to them as the scale of the disaster becomes evident or will they decide that a party that thinks like this is really not something to dedicate your life to?
My guess is that Cooper may well follow her husband out of the Commons altogether.
Burnham though he was coasting home (your point) so wanted to be magnanimous. In doing so, he introduced a new variable that he thought he could control - but it turned out he couldn't. For me, his mistake was taking an ill-judged and unnecessary risk by allowing a new variable into the contest
My first briefing would be, 'OK, boys, you've been doing it wrong all these years. First things first, the ball. You've been using the wrong shape of ball. It should be long and pointy so you can get a firm grip on it, not round and kicked about all the time in the vague hope it goes in the back of a fishing net. Next, the game. When you get the ball, you don't kick it about and look as though you're trying to be clever. You pick the damn thing up and run with it, and if anyone tries to stop you, you knock them over...'
Would be fun, but wouldn't win them any matches in the Premiership.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-rally-draws-more-6230271#ICID=sharebar_twitter
However, there are two important differences: (1) Lansbury was already a senior member of the Labour party, and had served in government and (2) he was elected unopposed because he was pretty much the only plausible leader to hold his seat (that the realistically canvassed alternative was Oswald Mosley is some indication of how desperate the party was).
One thought does occur, however. He was the only Labour leader ever to be forced out in a coup, led by Ernest Bevin. This was because he was too left-wing, especially on rearmament, which he opposed on principle and committed Labour to opposing. As a result, Labour were not merely unelectable in their own right, but they were causing Baldwin, the de facto Prime Minister, to hesitate over rearming as well - which in 1935, was not the best thing that could be happening.
Maybe Corbyn should remember that, if he becomes leader.
Cooper's transfers split about 3:1 for Burnham, though this includes Kendall's re-transfers; Burnham's transfers (again, with Kendall third preferences), split only about 2:1 for Cooper. While there's clearly strong transferring within the non-Corbyn candidates, there's still plenty of leakage and it's far too simplistic to characterise the campaign as Corbyn / non-Corbyn.
On the basis of these figures, I'd still say that his first round target needs to be about 42%. That or above should see him over the line.
However, we're looking at landslide territory at the moment - no scope for complaining about Tory sign-ups or Militant re-entryists when existing members are so heavily for him - and Casino Royale is right: there's huge value in his price at the moment as mental inertia in the mainstream reporting is preventing his lead for being seen as what it is.
Was he not equally astonished at the 2015 GE exit poll?
The Labour party is reaching the end of a long, self-satisfied wank. Soon it will ejaculate Jeremy Corbyn into the face of the British public; and will then be mystified about why everyone is revolted instead of cheering to the rafters.
Blair, Murdoch and the BBC will be blamed.
If they're underestimating Corbyn by 5 points, on this poll he has a realistic chance of a 2/3 majority.
If the flaw in their system is that it's too biased towards the left, that may mean they are overstating him - but it's hard to imagine they're doing it by the 15 points that would be necessary to make a difference to the outcome.
The lemmings look to be scampering towards the cliff edge but they will pull back at the last moment. Either Yvette Burnham or Andy Cooper (the anodyne duo) will scrape in, leaving Labour to celebrate the diversity of the party.
They have 72 hours left to turn things around before the ballot papers go out. It's not looking good for them.
Granted it isn't everyone's cup of tea, but a lot of the populations appear to be happy by and large to give away significant freedoms in exchange for rampant prosperity and a comfortable lifestyle - the same deal was supposed implicitly on offer for us with the EU, except the upside kind of didn't happen
But what's struck me the most about our Andy on the stump is his 'sense of humour'. It's something that only he seems to be amused by, to put it politely.
The rest of us either gasp or cringe.
Corbyn set to change Labour motto to:
"We're unelectable and we don't care."
The LDs need to sort themselves out sharpish. They have a big shot at redemption.
I suspect there's a message in there for the Tories too.
Assuming he does not leave after the EU ref, it depends if Osborne stays loyal and the others do not kick up a fuss behind the scenes. I figured if he were to stay on the most likely scenario would be he announced he intended to go in a year or something, the public reaction to potential successors looked bad and so 'for the good of the party' he'd stay on. We'll see.
Burnham: +14
Cooper: 0
Corbyn: -5
Kendall: -52
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/14x8p1al7n/TimesResults150810LabourMembers.pdf
And yet they still prefer Corbyn.....
Given the other candidates, to a Labour Party supporter, that's very attractive.
Not had breakfast yet... don't think I can stomach it now.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/14x8p1al7n/TimesResults150810LabourMembers.pdf
Only China really and dominated by factions
The U.S. Republicans have lost more recent general elections than Labour
Surely Corbyn has peaked too soon. Surely.
The weird thing is it seems entirely not to do with him, this surge - I cannot actually recall much of what he has said, just figured on the left getting worked up about taking the party back through him.
My only political bet was with Isam and was in favour of Cafod, a charity with relatively low admin costs (I won it).
Mr Observer's simile is rude but apt. Eventually Labour will rue the day, but the question is whether it's before or after the votes are cast. I still think it will be before.
At the time Burnham did say he would be willing to lend Corbyn or Creagh a couple of nominations if it meant they could get over the line (35 MPs). To which at the time Corbyn responded "I don't want charity nominations".
Anyway, fast forward the week later and the MPs who were undecided were get hounded by Corbyn's campaign supporters online through Twitter, Facebook and Email. Corbyn's Facebook page I think had something like 15-18k supporters at the time and they were running lists of MPs who needed to be persuaded. Polls were coming back online overwhelmingly for corbyn support and they used this as evidence that Corbyn should be heard in the debate.
It did put a lot of pressure on the MPs to nominate him as there was a feeling that the PLP was not listening to it's constituents at the time. Whether you call this charity or not I don't know, but it wasn't the work of Burnham. That ignores the feeling at the time.
I followed this closely, and that is why I stuck £100 on Corbyn in the early days, because in did think he would get over the line not through charity but because of the overwhelming activism.
I admire your optimism. I just don't share it.
Or will they disappear to the circuit like the righwing Miliband brother ?
Saw the headline lead on Sky News last night. Andy Burnham has committed the most stupid tactical blunder since Antiochus III thought that putting elephants in the middle of his densely packed heavy infantry would win him the Battle of Magnesia.
It's more stupid than Varro at Cannae. What were they thinking?
However, we should recall that polls can be wrong. Such as in the UK General Election this year. Or the Greek referendum. Or the Israeli election.
;-)
Oh and .....
LOL
That was very funny, in a horribly graphic way.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2015/08/harriet-harman-how-i-protected-my-baby-from-margaret-thatcher-the-witch/
I expect 2020 to see a number of independant MPs elected - look for example at Ireland where dicredited FF (once the natural party of government) has failed to recover as the FG government (who have done a good job in difficult circumstances) has hemeraged support over one unpopular decision - water charges. They now have a growing band of independants.It will only take on mistake from the Conservatives (omnishambles any one?) for it to become clear how shallow the depth of affection is for them - but that leakage will not benefit labour who are in full navel gazing mode and totally unfit to govern. The SNP in there own way are a sign of things to come....
Has to be "the no money left shot"
Labour needed a period of "what are we about ?" reflection, since it effectively said nothing under Ed. Instead we have a two fingered salute and a commitment to staying in opposition.
2. It's probably too late. I don't know the precise rules about withdrawal but even if they can theoretically do it, the ballot papers will almost certainly have already been printed.
3. Corbyn is likely to win on the first round with four candidates, so what the rest do is shuffling deckchairs on the Titanic.
4. In the extremely unlikely event that it is possible, were done and achieved, the left of the Labour party would scream electoral robbery and may well regard the new leader and his/her whip as illegitimate. It may well lead to a full split, including unions and their money.
No, for Labour's future, the other three have to stick it out now.
"al ejecta est?"
Forgive my lack of Latin but I read that as 'the ejaculate is cast'.
I hope it may be premature.
Mr Observer,
Analogy rather than simile? I expect you're correct.