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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn set to win on the first round according to sensation

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  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    rcs1000 said:


    Why is the answer always to penalise those out of work?

    It's not even the only way to incentivise them.

    And that's assuming you think the individuals concerned are the ones who need incentivising, rather than employers.

    We're getting far too close to turning the endless blaming of "the youth of today" into government policy.

    As a corollary of my "no benefits without NI", I'm very happy to subsidise people to work at the low end. But the point is that there are too many people who don't work, and who are either unemployable, or choose not to work.

    Work is good for you in so many ways. If you work you are less likely to get sick or be depressed. The enforced routine means that you are less likely to develop substance addictions. We need to make sure that our education, and our tax and benefits system encourage work. Today they do not.
    See my previous post.

    I cannot fathom how taking tax credits and other in-work benefits away from 18-22 is going to incentivise work.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,669
    If Trump wins the Republican ticket, then I think Bloomberg (who genuinely is a self made billionaire, and who has a successful track record of governing) runs as an Independent.

    He might even win.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Mr. Eagles, I do hope Khan doesn't get it. Ethnic quotas in the workplace is indefensible.

    Khan faces an intriguing challenge. He quite likes Abbott doing OK - bringing in new voters whose preferences will go to him. But if she beats him, then he's likely out.
  • Mr. Eagles, I do hope Khan doesn't get it. Ethnic quotas in the workplace is indefensible.

    That's cause you're white.

    Try being a non white in this country it's like living under a system worse than apartheid and Jim Crow.
  • The last post was sarcasm by the way.

    Every job I've had is because I was the best qualified candidate.

    I'd never want a job because of the colour of my skin
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    RodCrosby said:

    The censors wanted 30 cuts in Thunderball.
    http://www.bbfc.co.uk/sites/default/files/attachments/thunderball-final.pdf

    They were particularly upset that Bond banged the deadly Fiona only for "King and Country"...

    In the end, I think only the mink glove was removed. LOL!

    They objected to that but not the fact 'something big's come up' in Goldfinger.

    In fact, watching Goldfinger is quite funny now. I'd love to watch it with Harman and see her reaction when Bond dismisses his lady masseur by slapping her on the arse and saying "man talk".
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    edited August 2015
    ydoethur said:

    Indigo said:

    One of the best hopes for Labour under Corbyn is surely Scotland, however I can't help but think that SLAB remains a busted flush. I actually see the Tories being beneficiaries in border regions as the SNP might try to out-Corbyn Corbyn.

    Not unless SLAB suddenly becomes a separatist party. People vote for the SNP because they are Nationalists not because they are lefties. I would be willing to bet that if the SNP moved right to somewhere around John Major their vote would hardly change at all.
    No doubt a Scottish poster will correct me if I'm wrong. But I rather suspect a number of the SNP's voters are voting for it less because they want independence than because they genuinely believe the SNP is a radical leftist party that will stand up for their interests. Certainly it is difficult to see, otherwise, how they could poll the numbers they do when support for independence hasn't changed much these twelve months.

    Therefore, a Corbyn-led Labour party might spark at least a partial revival - however, the irony is that to do so he would have to bulldoze what's left of SLAB and run it as a branch office from London, as hardly any of the surviving Labour leadership in Scotland support his views.

    Of course, the fact is that the SNP are not particularly left-wing in practice (if they are left wing at all). But as long as they are not seen as part of some 'Establishment stitch up', that's probably good enough for the left wing vote in Scotland against a centrist Labour party.

    (That was also in partial response to @SouthamObserver upthread.)
    I think most of the political commentators just produce "clickbait" articles about the SNP/Scotland with eye catching headlines and often contradictory content - in an average day the SNP can be described as a Cult, a fascist party, ultra left wing, centre left, socialist, nationalist, tartan Tories, a chameleon party, anti-austerity, austerity-lite etc.

    During GE2015 the main message from the SNP from day one of the campaign was, vote SNP to ensure Scotland's interests are best protected at Westminster - it really was that simple - I know all the commentators need to come out with pseudo intellectual sounding articles to try and explain the rise of the SNP, these guys are just trying to earn a crust.

    Last I heard Kezia Dugdale isn't even planning to meet Corbyn when he hits Scotland for his 4 City tour, which speaks volumes about the mess SLAB is in. In terms of SLAB, there is no imminent revival in sight, in fact in Holyrood 2016 their current 20% support level is on the main menu for the Greens, Solidarity, SSP, SIP, LibDems and last but not least the SNP.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,669

    Mr. Eagles, I do hope Khan doesn't get it. Ethnic quotas in the workplace is indefensible.

    That's cause you're white.

    Try being a non white in this country it's like living under a system worse than apartheid and Jim Crow.
    You tell it how it is, brother.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,515
    edited August 2015

    The last post was sarcasm by the way.

    Every job I've had is because I was the best qualified candidate.

    Wow. How bad were the other candidates?

    ;)

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited August 2015
    Another disgraceful article from the BBC, not giving the full facts...

    "Wilson, who has since left the force, was not indicted on any charge, and a Justice Department report found "no evidence" that he had shot at Brown while the teenager was running away or trying to surrender."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-33856907

    Just miss out the bit about Brown was a criminal that threatened the officer, attacked him and tried to seize his gun, before refusing to be arrested.

    They were still repeating on the radio this morning the "unarmed black teenager shot by a white police officer" line.

    This is highly irresponsible reporting.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    calum said:

    During GE2015 the main message from the SNP from day one of the campaign was, vote SNP to ensure Scotland's interests are best protected at Westminster

    ...and the end result was the lowest amount of Scottish influence at Westminster in history.

    The Futile56 mean that Scotland's representation in Government is as low as it technically could be.

    Awesome job...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,976
    edited August 2015
    Mr. Royale, one of the earliest (it's probably in the sample section) bits of Sir Edric's Temple has him slap a naked lady (who happens to be married someone else) on the backside, click his fingers and tell her to go to the bedroom.

    Mr. Eagles, I'm not white. I'm a Viking, part of a minority so oppressed we aren't even publicly acknowledged.

    Jews get their synagogues, Muslims get halal meat, but if I engage in my cultural heritage and hit a Saxon in the face with an axe, I'd get told off (or possibly imprisoned).
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Artist said:
    They changes methadologies with a squeeze.

    Retrospectively applying this (which isn't quite methadologically sound):

    Jowell 36 (-4)
    Khan 23 (+2)
    Abbott 23 (+10)
    Wolmar 9 (-4)
    Lammy 7 (-3)

    So a lead, but not a convincing one given the direction of travel.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Some speculative future history...

    The SNP seems to be doing long term what Labour did to the Liberals back in the 20s or so. Looking back in 2050, the GE of 2036 where Labour achieved a remarkable 10 seats in Scotland will be seen as an impressive achievement.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,813
    edited August 2015
    calum said:


    I think most of the political commentators just produce "clickbait" articles about the SNP/Scotland with eye catching headlines and often contradictory content - in an average day the SNP can be described as a Cult, a fascist party, ultra left wing, centre left, socialist, nationalist, tartan Tories, a chameleon party, anti-austerity, austerity-lite etc.

    During GE2015 the main message from the SNP from day one of the campaign was, vote SNP to ensure Scotland's interests are best protected at Westminster - it really is that simple - I know all the commentators need to come out with pseudo intellectual sounding articles to try and explain the rise of the SNP, these guys are just trying to earn a crust.

    That's always been a key problem with the commentariat's understanding of Plaid Cymru too - there is a huge range of views inside it. Leanne Wood is an avowed Socialist, Elin Jones wouldn't be out of place in the Cameron Conservative party. Dafydd Wigley was left, Dafydd Elis Thomas was on the right. So it has been characterised in multiple different ways. The key thing was (is) that they all believed Welsh interests were not well served by London based parties, who by virtue of Wales' small size paid very little attention to it (cf. Tryweryn). It's not all bad news - this chameleon portrayal is why they've had success in Llanelli and in Merioneth. However, unlike the SNP they haven't translated that into a vast national movement and/or political success yet.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pulpstar said:

    the GE of 2036

    So they repealed the fixed term Parliament act in the meantime?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    NEW THREAD
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,813
    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    the GE of 2036

    So they repealed the fixed term Parliament act in the meantime?
    A Corbyn government comes in in 2020 and lasts 1 year (well, 8 months).
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    Mr. Royale, one of the earliest (it's probably in the sample section) bits of Sir Edric's Temple has him slap a naked lady (who happens to be married someone else) on the backside, click his fingers and tell her to go to the bedroom.

    Mr. Eagles, I'm not white. I'm a Viking, part of a minority so oppressed we aren't even publicly acknowledged.

    Jews get their synagogues, Muslims get halal meat, but if I engage in my cultural heritage and hit a Saxon in the face with an axe, I'd get told off (or possibly imprisoned).

    Berserkers aren't what they used to be.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,517
    Scott_P said:

    calum said:

    During GE2015 the main message from the SNP from day one of the campaign was, vote SNP to ensure Scotland's interests are best protected at Westminster

    ...and the end result was the lowest amount of Scottish influence at Westminster in history.

    The Futile56 mean that Scotland's representation in Government is as low as it technically could be.

    Awesome job...
    bollox
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