The Tories themselves never expected to win a majority in May and now they are punch drunk and believe they are the Masters of the Universe (all on 22% of the registered votes!).
Once all the preferences are taken into account I don't see Corbyn winning and things will then settle down. Those already awarding the next GE to the Tories are probably underestimating their ability to tear themselves apart over the EU. The current friction in the Labour party between the right & left factions could look like a tea-party once the Tories get the knives out.
Labour will probably sink further before rising again but in a few years time they will elect someone like Dan Jarvis and sweep back in with a 1997 scale majority. My money is firmly on Jarvis as the next Labour Prime Minister.
All governments come unstuck sooner or later and it is nothing but hubris to believe that Cameron/Osborn will be an exception.
Everyone is getting very silly. Scottish voters want to stay IN the EU but somehow they think its clever to vote OUT. Other people are claiming it would be better to vote OUT in order to get a better deal to stay IN ?? Scottish voters are a small percentage of the UK electorate - all voters in all regions will have an opinion and influence and other regions (and industries) may be equally opinionated. The vpote will depend on the terms. Greece has shown that when you play silly beggers you get buggered. So good luck with all these ideas.
We must presume the notion is that voting OUT will annoy Scottish voters who want IN - so they will demand another referendum to vote OUT of the UK so they can vote IN to the EU - without a central bank without a currency of their own - and to become IN to an even worse political and currency union than the one they want to leave where their voice will be zero. Plus turning down all the reforms to immigration that will be on offer and at the same time joining Schengen. All this might make sense to a stupid moron devoid of all logic - but shouldn't PBdotCOM be better than this?
The Tories themselves never expected to win a majority in May and now they are punch drunk and believe they are the Masters of the Universe (all on 22% of the registered votes!).
Once all the preferences are taken into account I don't see Corbyn winning and things will then settle down. Those already awarding the next GE to the Tories are probably underestimating their ability to tear themselves apart over the EU. The current friction in the Labour party between the right & left factions could look like a tea-party once the Tories get the knives out.
Labour will probably sink further before rising again but in a few years time they will elect someone like Dan Jarvis and sweep back in with a 1997 scale majority. My money is firmly on Jarvis as the next Labour Prime Minister.
All governments come unstuck sooner or later and it is nothing but hubris to believe that Cameron/Osborn will be an exception.
I thought Burnham did well on Sunday politics and Cooper not so well. Burnham handled Neil better. Neil is a bit of a chauvinist which was a problem for Cooper. Corbyn is refreshingly clear. Kendall makes me grate my teeth.
I now think Kendall will be last and most of her 2nd preferences will transfer to Cooper. I think most of Corbyn's 2nd preferences will transfer to Burnham.
I think 1st round will be Burnham, Cooper, Corbyn, Kendall or Burnham, Corbyn, Cooper, Kendall.
2nd round will be Burnham, Cooper, Corbyn Winner will be Burnham.
I've rebalanced my book on Betfair. Luckily I got on to Corbyn at 160/1 so I'm decently green on everyone except Kendall.
Whilst such result may be good for your finances, will it be good for Labour?
The Tories themselves never expected to win a majority in May and now they are punch drunk and believe they are the Masters of the Universe (all on 22% of the registered votes!).
Once all the preferences are taken into account I don't see Corbyn winning and things will then settle down. Those already awarding the next GE to the Tories are probably underestimating their ability to tear themselves apart over the EU. The current friction in the Labour party between the right & left factions could look like a tea-party once the Tories get the knives out.
Labour will probably sink further before rising again but in a few years time they will elect someone like Dan Jarvis and sweep back in with a 1997 scale majority. My money is firmly on Jarvis as the next Labour Prime Minister.
All governments come unstuck sooner or later and it is nothing but hubris to believe that Cameron/Osborn will be an exception.
I don’t accept that the result of an election for Holyrood on a turnout of circa 50% should be allowed to override the clear decision of a Referendum in which 85% voted. Salmond told us it was a once in a generation decision. Cameron – and his successors – will be perfectly entitled to ignore any 'mandate' claimed from Scottish elections to Holyrood until the 2030s. I hope they do so.
No sensible Tory - and there's plenty of us, and particularly we footsoldiers in local government - should engage in the 'we are the masters now and for a very long time too' (Sir Shortly Floorcross) nonsense. Of course Labour can win in 2020 though with Corbyn as leader, that prospect would be remote.
The Tories themselves never expected to win a majority in May and now they are punch drunk and believe they are the Masters of the Universe (all on 22% of the registered votes!).
Once all the preferences are taken into account I don't see Corbyn winning and things will then settle down. Those already awarding the next GE to the Tories are probably underestimating their ability to tear themselves apart over the EU. The current friction in the Labour party between the right & left factions could look like a tea-party once the Tories get the knives out.
Labour will probably sink further before rising again but in a few years time they will elect someone like Dan Jarvis and sweep back in with a 1997 scale majority. My money is firmly on Jarvis as the next Labour Prime Minister.
All governments come unstuck sooner or later and it is nothing but hubris to believe that Cameron/Osborn will be an exception.
So you are thinking of 2025?
I am viewing 2015 as the first Tory victory (majority) for 23 years so expect them to win again in 2020. Labour will be back after that
Kendall is (unfairly IMO) called a 'Tory', because she appears to sign up for every single policy espoused by the Conservative party.
Not quite. She's signing up to policies espoused by the electorate.
That's your problem. Not Liz Kendall.
So private sector intervention in the public sector is a policy popular with the electorate? So Free Schools is a policy popular with the electorate, then?
It is Liz Kendall's issue if she's looking to get elected to be Labour leader, and PM of this country. That is her problem.
I think polling on those two issues show that the public don't care much as long as the service is there and they like free schools. so often it depends how you word the question on these issues. One recent poll suggests they were fairly content with the Tory offer - May 2015
As to who would have thought we would see another government like the current one, that would be 36.1% of the electorate, or putting it another way, 7.1% more than wanted to see another Footite Labour government.
No Indigo that's a bad misuse of statistics. It may be 7.1% of the electorate but it isn't 7.1% of those who wanted to see another Footite Labour government. The base for that was 29.0%
7.1/29.0 = 24.5% so it was 24.5% more than those who wanted to see another Footite Labour government.
The Labour vote in 2015 was 31.2% not 29%. Likewise the Tories managed 37.8%. Those are GB figures. The data you refer to appears to relate to UK for 2010.
The Tories themselves never expected to win a majority in May and now they are punch drunk and believe they are the Masters of the Universe (all on 22% of the registered votes!).
Once all the preferences are taken into account I don't see Corbyn winning and things will then settle down. Those already awarding the next GE to the Tories are probably underestimating their ability to tear themselves apart over the EU. The current friction in the Labour party between the right & left factions could look like a tea-party once the Tories get the knives out.
Labour will probably sink further before rising again but in a few years time they will elect someone like Dan Jarvis and sweep back in with a 1997 scale majority. My money is firmly on Jarvis as the next Labour Prime Minister.
All governments come unstuck sooner or later and it is nothing but hubris to believe that Cameron/Osborn will be an exception.
So your post confirms that for Labour to make progress they're pretty well banking on a Tory implosion - rather than doing anything about it themselves. Care to remind yourself how many of the registered vote went for Labour? No, thought not. both major parties support the current system as did the voters in the AV referendum. Get over it.
If we believe some PB Tories on here Labour being 'credible' is agreeing with every policy, belief, and idea from the Conservative party.
No. But it is having a credible, logical, well-argued alternative to the Conservatives. It looks like that bus ain't coming along any time soon for Labour.
There is certainly an argument for a higher tax/higher spending state. It's just that Labour aren't yet making it - I don't know why, there are always people tweeting that they wouldn't mind paying higher taxes.
We are quite heavily taxed already and cannot afford our spending levels. If you or anyone wants to support your own suggestion then they need to specify - prove really - what level of spending can be supported without deficit spending by what level of tax generation. On top of which they have to prove what good that spending will do. If the govt - any govt - take £1 off me that is one pound I cannot spend - and pay tax on. It is being spent by the govt. The economy at best neither benefits nor suffers. The govt spending money not me is not some magic way of making everyone better or producing a better economy. The opposite might be true. A pound I cannot spend is one I cannot put to say a pension or savings.
Whilst I wouldn't expect Corbyn to win the leadership contest, if the unthinkable does happen then I don't think it would be as disastrous for labour as many tories think. Why do I say this i hear you say? Well once we get into the global sovereign debt crisis from the start of October, I expect that politics will increasingly polarise into hard left and hard right positrons. We've already seen that with Greece and it always happens when economic depressions hit. Look at 1933 and how the social climate of the time allowed Hitler, Mao et al to power. Corbyn would be ideal to profit from that polarisation just as Farage is ideally situated to pick up support on the right.
.
Whilst there is no doubt issues over the EU financial model whatever date you predict it will happen is v unlikely to occur, given your track record...
The get out is he doesn't specify October 2015 - it no doubt could just as likely be October 2115!
start of October this year is the turn date that I'm sticking to. When interest rates start RISING globally on sovereign government debt we'll see soon enough what the global economy is made of or not. And people like you will be what will drive the trend, being insanely optimistic that interest rates will remain on the floor for eternity at the moment. We've had enough economic history to see that nothing is eternal in economics just as is the case with life in general.
.. but the Governor of the B of E says they will go up by the turn of the year. This is a known.
Actually the Governor was nothing like that certain or specific! It has simply become a bit more likely.
Kendall is (unfairly IMO) called a 'Tory', because she appears to sign up for every single policy espoused by the Conservative party.
Not quite. She's signing up to policies espoused by the electorate.
That's your problem. Not Liz Kendall.
So private sector intervention in the public sector is a policy popular with the electorate? So Free Schools is a policy popular with the electorate, then?
It is Liz Kendall's issue if she's looking to get elected to be Labour leader, and PM of this country. That is her problem.
I think polling on those two issues show that the public don't care much as long as the service is there and they like free schools. so often it depends how you word the question on these issues. One recent poll suggests they were fairly content with the Tory offer - May 2015
Really? As far as I've seen polling as generally shown the public to be pretty sceptical of private sector involvement in public services. As for Free Schools, the polling I've seen shows the public disliking free schools.
As for the Tory offer, they were fairly vague about what they'd actually do in office - you're average voter does not read detailed manifestos. In any case, voting Tory doesn't actually mean you agree with everything the Tories do.
Whilst I wouldn't expect Corbyn to win the leadership contest, if the unthinkable does happen then I don't think it would be as disastrous for labour as many tories think. Why do I say this i hear you say? Well once we get into the global sovereign debt crisis from the start of October, I expect that politics will increasingly polarise into hard left and hard right positrons. We've already seen that with Greece and it always happens when economic depressions hit. Look at 1933 and how the social climate of the time allowed Hitler, Mao et al to power. Corbyn would be ideal to profit from that polarisation just as Farage is ideally situated to pick up support on the right.
.
Whilst there is no doubt issues over the EU financial model whatever date you predict it will happen is v unlikely to occur, given your track record...
The get out is he doesn't specify October 2015 - it no doubt could just as likely be October 2115!
start of October this year is the turn date that I'm sticking to. When interest rates start RISING globally on sovereign government debt we'll see soon enough what the global economy is made of or not. And people like you will be what will drive the trend, being insanely optimistic that interest rates will remain on the floor for eternity at the moment. We've had enough economic history to see that nothing is eternal in economics just as is the case with life in general.
.. but the Governor of the B of E says they will go up by the turn of the year. This is a known.
Actually the Governor was nothing like that certain or specific! It has simply become a bit more likely.
Agreed. He said turn of the year is when they will look at it. Carney should be well satisfied with the reaction which is in effect an interest rate rise without any base rate movement. Good expectation management. I
No sensible Tory - and there's plenty of us, and particularly we footsoldiers in local government - should engage in the 'we are the masters now and for a very long time too' (Sir Shortly Floorcross) nonsense. Of course Labour can win in 2020 though with Corbyn as leader, that prospect would be remote.
No sensible Tory - and there's plenty of us, and particularly we footsoldiers in local government - should engage in the 'we are the masters now and for a very long time too' (Sir Shortly Floorcross) nonsense. Of course Labour can win in 2020 though with Corbyn as leader, that prospect would be remote.
Oof ! a very sensible post Mr O, you'll get drummed out of the party if you keep making comments like that !
The Tories themselves never expected to win a majority in May and now they are punch drunk and believe they are the Masters of the Universe (all on 22% of the registered votes!).
Once all the preferences are taken into account I don't see Corbyn winning and things will then settle down. Those already awarding the next GE to the Tories are probably underestimating their ability to tear themselves apart over the EU. The current friction in the Labour party between the right & left factions could look like a tea-party once the Tories get the knives out.
Labour will probably sink further before rising again but in a few years time they will elect someone like Dan Jarvis and sweep back in with a 1997 scale majority. My money is firmly on Jarvis as the next Labour Prime Minister.
All governments come unstuck sooner or later and it is nothing but hubris to believe that Cameron/Osborn will be an exception.
From a Labour perspective that is probably pessimistic. Not that unlikely that Labour will get back to circa 260 in 2020 having won 20 seats from the Tories and 6 - 10 from SNP. Tories migh also lose a few to LibDems and end up on 305 to 310. Such a result would not be a Labour win but probably enough to remove the Tories from office.
The Tories themselves never expected to win a majority in May and now they are punch drunk and believe they are the Masters of the Universe (all on 22% of the registered votes!).
Once all the preferences are taken into account I don't see Corbyn winning and things will then settle down. Those already awarding the next GE to the Tories are probably underestimating their ability to tear themselves apart over the EU. The current friction in the Labour party between the right & left factions could look like a tea-party once the Tories get the knives out.
Labour will probably sink further before rising again but in a few years time they will elect someone like Dan Jarvis and sweep back in with a 1997 scale majority. My money is firmly on Jarvis as the next Labour Prime Minister.
All governments come unstuck sooner or later and it is nothing but hubris to believe that Cameron/Osborn will be an exception.
From a Labour perspective that is probably pessimistic. Not that unlikely that Labour will get back to circa 260 in 2020 having won 20 seats from the Tories and 6 - 10 from SNP. Tories migh also lose a few to LibDems and end up on 305 to 310. Such a result would not be a Labour win but probably enough to remove the Tories from office.
Labour won't have the benefit of rotten borough constituencies heading in to the next election; they'll be starting 10-20 seats down from the current position.
The Tories themselves never expected to win a majority in May and now they are punch drunk and believe they are the Masters of the Universe (all on 22% of the registered votes!).
Once all the preferences are taken into account I don't see Corbyn winning and things will then settle down. Those already awarding the next GE to the Tories are probably underestimating their ability to tear themselves apart over the EU. The current friction in the Labour party between the right & left factions could look like a tea-party once the Tories get the knives out.
Labour will probably sink further before rising again but in a few years time they will elect someone like Dan Jarvis and sweep back in with a 1997 scale majority. My money is firmly on Jarvis as the next Labour Prime Minister.
All governments come unstuck sooner or later and it is nothing but hubris to believe that Cameron/Osborn will be an exception.
From a Labour perspective that is probably pessimistic. Not that unlikely that Labour will get back to circa 260 in 2020 having won 20 seats from the Tories and 6 - 10 from SNP. Tories migh also lose a few to LibDems and end up on 305 to 310. Such a result would not be a Labour win but probably enough to remove the Tories from office.
Labour won't have the benefit of rotten borough constituencies heading in to the next election; they'll be starting 10-20 seats down from the current position.
Kendall is (unfairly IMO) called a 'Tory', because she appears to sign up for every single policy espoused by the Conservative party.
Not quite. She's signing up to policies espoused by the electorate.
That's your problem. Not Liz Kendall.
So private sector intervention in the public sector is a policy popular with the electorate? So Free Schools is a policy popular with the electorate, then?
It is Liz Kendall's issue if she's looking to get elected to be Labour leader, and PM of this country. That is her problem.
Free schools are popular in places where you cant buy yourself a place at a good local comprehensive by having a nice postcode.
The debate isnt about whether or not free schools or private sector involvement in schools is popular, its about whether or not doing so improves the quality of education. What parents want is a better schools, the argument is how we achieve this.
They managed not to win the argument last September, and so remain part of the Union. However, they have chosen to conduct their membership of the Union by means of aggression and constitutional offensiveness, like the bullies they were during the referendum campaign, and like the sore losers they have been ever since.
A classic example of why many of our so called political commentators are increasingly losing the plot and we're not even close to the EU ref when I fear many of these guys are at risk of having a nervous breakdown.
We've had the SNP now being blamed for the failure of the other parties - The best line:
"it will soon become apparent to Cameron that even the smallest Tory rebellion can prevent the Government from getting its programme through"
So David Cameron's inability to control the unruly elements of the broad Tory church is somehow Nicola Sturgeons fault ?
My take on Mr Heffer:
Anyone who reads Simon Heffer and takes a word of it seriously needs to get out more often..
He's a man with a great deal to say and little grounding in reality ..
The Tories themselves never expected to win a majority in May and now they are punch drunk and believe they are the Masters of the Universe (all on 22% of the registered votes!).
Once all the preferences are taken into account I don't see Corbyn winning and things will then settle down. Those already awarding the next GE to the Tories are probably underestimating their ability to tear themselves apart over the EU. The current friction in the Labour party between the right & left factions could look like a tea-party once the Tories get the knives out.
Labour will probably sink further before rising again but in a few years time they will elect someone like Dan Jarvis and sweep back in with a 1997 scale majority. My money is firmly on Jarvis as the next Labour Prime Minister.
All governments come unstuck sooner or later and it is nothing but hubris to believe that Cameron/Osborn will be an exception.
So you are thinking of 2025?
I am viewing 2015 as the first Tory victory (majority) for 23 years so expect them to win again in 2020. Labour will be back after that
An alternative view is that Labour are in terminal decline. The focus group stuff from key marginals reported in the Observer today is pretty awful for the party. In summary, Ed was crap and we can't forgive you for trying to foist him on us and we don't trust you one bit with our money or the welfare system.
The Tories themselves never expected to win a majority in May and now they are punch drunk and believe they are the Masters of the Universe (all on 22% of the registered votes!).
Once all the preferences are taken into account I don't see Corbyn winning and things will then settle down. Those already awarding the next GE to the Tories are probably underestimating their ability to tear themselves apart over the EU. The current friction in the Labour party between the right & left factions could look like a tea-party once the Tories get the knives out.
Labour will probably sink further before rising again but in a few years time they will elect someone like Dan Jarvis and sweep back in with a 1997 scale majority. My money is firmly on Jarvis as the next Labour Prime Minister.
All governments come unstuck sooner or later and it is nothing but hubris to believe that Cameron/Osborn will be an exception.
From a Labour perspective that is probably pessimistic. Not that unlikely that Labour will get back to circa 260 in 2020 having won 20 seats from the Tories and 6 - 10 from SNP. Tories migh also lose a few to LibDems and end up on 305 to 310. Such a result would not be a Labour win but probably enough to remove the Tories from office.
Labour won't have the benefit of rotten borough constituencies heading in to the next election; they'll be starting 10-20 seats down from the current position.
It is far from certain that the reduction in seats from 650 to 600 will go through.
The Tories themselves never expected to win a majority in May and now they are punch drunk and believe they are the Masters of the Universe (all on 22% of the registered votes!).
Once all the preferences are taken into account I don't see Corbyn winning and things will then settle down. Those already awarding the next GE to the Tories are probably underestimating their ability to tear themselves apart over the EU. The current friction in the Labour party between the right & left factions could look like a tea-party once the Tories get the knives out.
Labour will probably sink further before rising again but in a few years time they will elect someone like Dan Jarvis and sweep back in with a 1997 scale majority. My money is firmly on Jarvis as the next Labour Prime Minister.
All governments come unstuck sooner or later and it is nothing but hubris to believe that Cameron/Osborn will be an exception.
From a Labour perspective that is probably pessimistic. Not that unlikely that Labour will get back to circa 260 in 2020 having won 20 seats from the Tories and 6 - 10 from SNP. Tories migh also lose a few to LibDems and end up on 305 to 310. Such a result would not be a Labour win but probably enough to remove the Tories from office.
Labour won't have the benefit of rotten borough constituencies heading in to the next election; they'll be starting 10-20 seats down from the current position.
It is far from certain that the reduction in seats from 650 to 600 will go through.
That vote has already happened. All that remains is the approval of the Boundary Commission's work, which will be as much of a 3-line whip for the Tories as the budget!
The Tories themselves never expected to win a majority in May and now they are punch drunk and believe they are the Masters of the Universe (all on 22% of the registered votes!).
Once all the preferences are taken into account I don't see Corbyn winning and things will then settle down. Those already awarding the next GE to the Tories are probably underestimating their ability to tear themselves apart over the EU. The current friction in the Labour party between the right & left factions could look like a tea-party once the Tories get the knives out.
Labour will probably sink further before rising again but in a few years time they will elect someone like Dan Jarvis and sweep back in with a 1997 scale majority. My money is firmly on Jarvis as the next Labour Prime Minister.
All governments come unstuck sooner or later and it is nothing but hubris to believe that Cameron/Osborn will be an exception.
So your post confirms that for Labour to make progress they're pretty well banking on a Tory implosion - rather than doing anything about it themselves. Care to remind yourself how many of the registered vote went for Labour? No, thought not. both major parties support the current system as did the voters in the AV referendum. Get over it.
Not banking on a Tory implosion at all just pointing out that whilst everything seems rosy for them just now it could look very different after the blood-letting post EU referendum. Either way Labour will be back at either the next election or, more likely, the one after. The Tories will run out of steam eventually.
The purpose of pointing out that the Tories got the votes of 22% of registered voters in May was not because I am unaware that Labour polled less, it was simply to remind some on here who seem to be getting a little carried away that it is hardly forms the solid foundation for Tory rule in perpetuity!
"51% of RUK voters would vote to LEAVE the EU" Fieldwork 26/6 to 3/7.
This poll predates the show of nastiness with Greece, the breakdown in EU solidarity and the flimsiness of EU promises to the UK. I suspect the next EU poll will be a shocker.
What flimsiness of EU promises to the UK? You mean the promise that the UK wouldn't pay to future bailouts and that the UK isn't paying for this bailout (as the ECB is taking on what would have been our responsibility).
Who other than a die-hard Kipper who was already voting Out will be changing votes based on that?
The fact that we had to fight to preserve an arrangement that was specifically put in place to protect our interests. The fact that, if we had not fought, the EC would have torn up that agreement - and that in the process they made it quite clear that anything not written in the Treaties has nil value in their view.
Combine this with the attempt to force through an FTT - which was basically an attempt to loot a UK-centric industry - it becomes increasingly clear that the EU feels no compunction about targeting UK interests very directly
It's certainly making me reconsider my vote. And I'm by no means a die-hard Kipper.
One thing that is clear, is that Corbyn has strong support in the Labour party - whether he is actually leading the race though, is another matter. I think Corbyn is profiting from that fact there is a lack of a standout candidate of whom the activist base can be sure of improving the party's chances in a GE.
I watched part of the C4 interview with Corbyn. He came across as thoughtful, very engaging, and rather nice. What he said was completely nuts, of course, but I can see how he stands out from the rather bland alternatives.
I wouldn't blame Labour members for voting him in.
They managed not to win the argument last September, and so remain part of the Union. However, they have chosen to conduct their membership of the Union by means of aggression and constitutional offensiveness, like the bullies they were during the referendum campaign, and like the sore losers they have been ever since.
A classic example of why many of our so called political commentators are increasingly losing the plot and we're not even close to the EU ref when I fear many of these guys are at risk of having a nervous breakdown.
We've had the SNP now being blamed for the failure of the other parties - The best line:
"it will soon become apparent to Cameron that even the smallest Tory rebellion can prevent the Government from getting its programme through"
So David Cameron's inability to control the unruly elements of the broad Tory church is somehow Nicola Sturgeons fault ?
My take on Mr Heffer:
Anyone who reads Simon Heffer and takes a word of it seriously needs to get out more often..
He's a man with a great deal to say and little grounding in reality ..
Heffer is a clown - yesterday in the Telegraph he was telling us that Queenie et all were really just taking the p*** out of Hitler with their Nazi salutes - clearly this was also what Edward VII was doing when he met Hitler later on. Not quite as desperate as the Express though telling us this morning that the truth of the matter is they were really waving!
The Tories themselves never expected to win a majority in May and now they are punch drunk and believe they are the Masters of the Universe (all on 22% of the registered votes!).
Once all the preferences are taken into account I don't see Corbyn winning and things will then settle down. Those already awarding the next GE to the Tories are probably underestimating their ability to tear themselves apart over the EU. The current friction in the Labour party between the right & left factions could look like a tea-party once the Tories get the knives out.
Labour will probably sink further before rising again but in a few years time they will elect someone like Dan Jarvis and sweep back in with a 1997 scale majority. My money is firmly on Jarvis as the next Labour Prime Minister.
All governments come unstuck sooner or later and it is nothing but hubris to believe that Cameron/Osborn will be an exception.
So you are thinking of 2025?
I am viewing 2015 as the first Tory victory (majority) for 23 years so expect them to win again in 2020. Labour will be back after that
An alternative view is that Labour are in terminal decline. The focus group stuff from key marginals reported in the Observer today is pretty awful for the party. In summary, Ed was crap and we can't forgive you for trying to foist him on us and we don't trust you one bit with our money or the welfare system.
You could be right, who knows. In the depth of the Blair years many thought that the Tories would never overcome their "nasty" party image. It took a decade, Cameron came along and they did, at least to the extent that they got back into government
Gentle lunch-time interview on TMS with Ed Balls. Said he has no plans to re-enter politics during this Parliament or even 2020 - but did not rule out ever. Mentioned something about Harvard in the near future.
The Tories themselves never expected to win a majority in May and now they are punch drunk and believe they are the Masters of the Universe (all on 22% of the registered votes!).
Once all the preferences are taken into account I don't see Corbyn winning and things will then settle down. Those already awarding the next GE to the Tories are probably underestimating their ability to tear themselves apart over the EU. The current friction in the Labour party between the right & left factions could look like a tea-party once the Tories get the knives out.
Labour will probably sink further before rising again but in a few years time they will elect someone like Dan Jarvis and sweep back in with a 1997 scale majority. My money is firmly on Jarvis as the next Labour Prime Minister.
All governments come unstuck sooner or later and it is nothing but hubris to believe that Cameron/Osborn will be an exception.
From a Labour perspective that is probably pessimistic. Not that unlikely that Labour will get back to circa 260 in 2020 having won 20 seats from the Tories and 6 - 10 from SNP. Tories migh also lose a few to LibDems and end up on 305 to 310. Such a result would not be a Labour win but probably enough to remove the Tories from office.
Labour won't have the benefit of rotten borough constituencies heading in to the next election; they'll be starting 10-20 seats down from the current position.
It is far from certain that the reduction in seats from 650 to 600 will go through.
That vote has already happened. All that remains is the approval of the Boundary Commission's work, which will be as much of a 3-line whip for the Tories as the budget!
There were quite a few Tory rebels last time and the same is likely when the next Boundary Review is presented. Moreover, by that time - 2018? - the Tory majority may be only half what it is now!
In the depth of the Blair years many thought that the Tories would never overcome their "nasty" party image. It took a decade, Cameron came along and they did, at least to the extent that they got back into government
It's one thing being viewed as nasty, it's quite another to be viewed as deluded and/or incompetent.
Completely OT. Hope the Oz cricketer Chris Rogers is okay. Somewhat worrying that he collapsed 48 hours after being hit on the head. Perhaps there is a case for saying that there should be more checks after a cricketer has had a blow to the head.
In the depth of the Blair years many thought that the Tories would never overcome their "nasty" party image. It took a decade, Cameron came along and they did, at least to the extent that they got back into government
It's one thing being viewed as nasty, it's quite another to be viewed as deluded and/or incompetent.
Arguably it's easier to overcome being viewed as incompetent than being viewed as nasty. Nasty is a brand issue, incompetence is an issued that can be solved with a change of personnel and ideas.
Completely OT. Hope the Oz cricketer Chris Rogers is okay. Somewhat worrying that he collapsed 48 hours after being hit on the head. Perhaps there is a case for saying that there should be more checks after a cricketer has had a blow to the head.
He's got a track record of vertigo which does tend to be an intermittent chronic condition, so more likely that.
In the depth of the Blair years many thought that the Tories would never overcome their "nasty" party image. It took a decade, Cameron came along and they did, at least to the extent that they got back into government
It's one thing being viewed as nasty, it's quite another to be viewed as deluded and/or incompetent.
The Tories themselves never expected to win a majority in May and now they are punch drunk and believe they are the Masters of the Universe (all on 22% of the registered votes!).
Once all the preferences are taken into account I don't see Corbyn winning and things will then settle down. Those already awarding the next GE to the Tories are probably underestimating their ability to tear themselves apart over the EU. The current friction in the Labour party between the right & left factions could look like a tea-party once the Tories get the knives out.
Labour will probably sink further before rising again but in a few years time they will elect someone like Dan Jarvis and sweep back in with a 1997 scale majority. My money is firmly on Jarvis as the next Labour Prime Minister.
All governments come unstuck sooner or later and it is nothing but hubris to believe that Cameron/Osborn will be an exception.
From a Labour perspective that is probably pessimistic. Not that unlikely that Labour will get back to circa 260 in 2020 having won 20 seats from the Tories and 6 - 10 from SNP. Tories migh also lose a few to LibDems and end up on 305 to 310. Such a result would not be a Labour win but probably enough to remove the Tories from office.
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Once all the preferences are taken into account I don't see Corbyn winning and things will then settle down. Those already awarding the next GE to the Tories are probably underestimating their ability to tear themselves apart over the EU. The current friction in the Labour party between the right & left factions could look like a tea-party once the Tories get the knives out.
Labour will probably sink further before rising again but in a few years time they will elect someone like Dan Jarvis and sweep back in with a 1997 scale majority. My money is firmly on Jarvis as the next Labour Prime Minister.
All governments come unstuck sooner or later and it is nothing but hubris to believe that Cameron/Osborn will be an exception.
Scottish voters are a small percentage of the UK electorate - all voters in all regions will have an opinion and influence and other regions (and industries) may be equally opinionated. The vpote will depend on the terms. Greece has shown that when you play silly beggers you get buggered. So good luck with all these ideas.
We must presume the notion is that voting OUT will annoy Scottish voters who want IN - so they will demand another referendum to vote OUT of the UK so they can vote IN to the EU - without a central bank without a currency of their own - and to become IN to an even worse political and currency union than the one they want to leave where their voice will be zero. Plus turning down all the reforms to immigration that will be on offer and at the same time joining Schengen.
All this might make sense to a stupid moron devoid of all logic - but shouldn't PBdotCOM be better than this?
I think blue most likely.
Jeremy wold look OK in a Mankini
If the govt - any govt - take £1 off me that is one pound I cannot spend - and pay tax on. It is being spent by the govt. The economy at best neither benefits nor suffers.
The govt spending money not me is not some magic way of making everyone better or producing a better economy. The opposite might be true. A pound I cannot spend is one I cannot put to say a pension or savings.
As for the Tory offer, they were fairly vague about what they'd actually do in office - you're average voter does not read detailed manifestos. In any case, voting Tory doesn't actually mean you agree with everything the Tories do.
The debate isnt about whether or not free schools or private sector involvement in schools is popular, its about whether or not doing so improves the quality of education. What parents want is a better schools, the argument is how we achieve this.
We've had the SNP now being blamed for the failure of the other parties - The best line:
"it will soon become apparent to Cameron that even the smallest Tory rebellion can prevent the Government from getting its programme through"
So David Cameron's inability to control the unruly elements of the broad Tory church is somehow Nicola Sturgeons fault ?
My take on Mr Heffer:
Anyone who reads Simon Heffer and takes a word of it seriously needs to get out more often..
He's a man with a great deal to say and little grounding in reality ..
The purpose of pointing out that the Tories got the votes of 22% of registered voters in May was not because I am unaware that Labour polled less, it was simply to remind some on here who seem to be getting a little carried away that it is hardly forms the solid foundation for Tory rule in perpetuity!
Combine this with the attempt to force through an FTT - which was basically an attempt to loot a UK-centric industry - it becomes increasingly clear that the EU feels no compunction about targeting UK interests very directly
It's certainly making me reconsider my vote. And I'm by no means a die-hard Kipper.
http://tinyurl.com/nlmkzgm
I wouldn't blame Labour members for voting him in.
My take on Mr Heffer:
Anyone who reads Simon Heffer and takes a word of it seriously needs to get out more often..
He's a man with a great deal to say and little grounding in reality ..
Heffer is a clown - yesterday in the Telegraph he was telling us that Queenie et all were really just taking the p*** out of Hitler with their Nazi salutes - clearly this was also what Edward VII was doing when he met Hitler later on. Not quite as desperate as the Express though telling us this morning that the truth of the matter is they were really waving!
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