Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It wasn’t just at the May 2015 general election that the po
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It wasn’t just at the May 2015 general election that the polling did not cover itself with glory
What should be noted about this poll was that it took place six days after the postal ballot packs had gone out and for many of those sampled was actually an exit poll.
0
Comments
It is difficult to see any clear trend in the errors either. What is particularly depressing about the GE is that the grouping, however it occurred, meant that it can no longer be confidently said that phone polling is any better than internet polling. We really are flying blind.
So we are apparently going to have a left wing government signing up to mass privatisations with control and the proceeds outside Greece, all the steps taken by Syriza since January reversed and pretty much all of the legislation required for this raced through by Wednesday. And, of course, the deeply resented external supervision will be far more intense than it has been to date as well.
It seems almost inconceivable that this party will hold together and be able to deliver this. My guess is that the government will fall and be replaced by some sort of government of national unity this week.
Those Greeks sure want to stay in the Euro!
On topic, polling is obviously becoming a less exact science. Or rather, gaining an accurate sample is becoming more and more difficult as people lead more complicated lives and communicate in different ways than only a few years ago.
In other news, I think we still have a Greece, although its banks are shut again. This is looking more and more like some sort of game theory marathon. Shall we get a live studio audience to cheer on the participants, maybe a game show host like Noel Edmonds to present? Greece and Germany. 50bn Euros. Deal or No Deal.
On topic - out of interest, where have polls done well?
Coming out of the Euro would have been possible up to early this year with international support and might well have been a better option for Greece but it is no option at all at the present time. So they have to take whatever the EZ as a whole considers to be in their best interests. It is possible of course that the other EZ leaders are right and this restructuring is what the Greek economy really needs.
What I would say re the polls is that things with low turnout and specialised electorates like party memberships have always been tricky but between 1992 and 2015 the polls had got the national results broadly right. What we are now seeing is that it is as hard to get an accurate sample for these national elections as it is for the more specialised ones. Unless the pollsters can overcome that demand for their product is going to end.
As trust is a key problem with Greece, why not say, put into law immediately the structural changes required and then we will give you the financial backing you need. Seems that the Greek PM is playing more for his political person than for the requirements of his country. Of course he tricked Hollande who appears to have split the EZ even more.
“As a consequence of you being here [Heathrow North Runway], you are causing severe disruption and it will be in the millions of pounds because it will take us a while to remove you.
“The cost will be in the couple of millions. The airport will attempt to make a civil recovery.”
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jul/13/heathrow-disruption-climate-change-activists-claim-chained-runway
870m from revenues of 2.7bn seems very high for a regulated industry.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/11718158/Party-politics-will-see-off-a-third-runway-at-Heathrow.html
If Scotland wants genuine independence it needs to have its own currency, its own central bank and, as you rightly say, learn to live within its own means. But I have little doubt that if we go through a second referendum the same lies will be told all over again.
Greece being run as an EU protectorate for a few years may not be such a bad thing. The EU could hardly do worse than the Greeks themselves have done, and would have to accept some responsibility for relieving the misery of the Greek people.
Unite has removed a clause requiring its 1.5million members to remain within the law.
The extraordinary move is a riposte to the Government’s pledge to curb militants’ right to strike........
The bill, to be introduced on Wednesday, will impose minimum turnout thresholds on strike ballots that would have outlawed three-quarters of the strikes seen in recent years, and softened the impact of this week’s transport disputes. Essential services such as fire, transport, health and education will need 40 per cent of all those eligible to vote to back a strike before it can go ahead......
Mr McCluskey raised the threat of changing Unite rules earlier this year, before the election. He said the right to strike was already ‘hanging by a thread’ as a result of reforms by the Coalition.
His latest intervention will put pressure on Labour leadership contenders to say whether they approve of illegal strikes.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3158759/
He will get Corbyn's support, but which way will the rest go - testing times.
God help the pollsters next time, with new constituency boundaries!
Very good point on polling. Perhaps more useful for momentum changes than precision (excepting exit polls at General Elections which seem very good).
Mr. Financier, I'm sure we can all agree strikes are wrong, but the government's acted in a reckless and provocative manner.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Jonathan, that's a very sound point.
Heathrow should give them a space they can protest if they wish, or else we will be seeing this every few weeks for the next decade.
Paradoxically of course, their morning protest resulted in more noise than usual to the residents of West London, as planes were kept in the air longer waiting for the single runway in use to become available
It would also be fairly sensible to know what we are voting for in a Brexit referendum too: EEA? the 4 freedoms, access to European Markets? Status of Brits in the EU and EU citizens in the UK etc etc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCem9EZb-YA
So, if you spent £10bn building an airport, you would be allowed to make a profit of -say - 8%.
Where people got it wrong was in overestimating local factors over national swing, particularly "personal votes" and in the Lab/Con balance. The remainder was actually pretty accurate. I made good money by betting that the LD vote collapse would lose a lot of seats, UKIP would struggle to hold any and that the SNP would massacre SLAB.
EuroSummit has unanimously reached agreement. All ready to go for ESM programme for #Greece with serious reforms & financial support
Relatedly, Nick Szabo on Small Game Fallacies:
http://unenumerated.blogspot.jp/2015/05/small-game-fallacies.html?m=1
“The Greek tragedy shows that the threat of bankruptcy is not abstract,” according to Mr Fillon, who headed the government of former president Nicolas Sarkozy until 2012.
Mr Hollande’s efforts to save Greece from exiting the eurozone have “temporarily eclipsed our own economic, social and financial failures,” Mr Fillon said. .......
Mr Fillon urged the Socialist president to “unlock France from its 35-hour (working week) and introduce far-reaching economic reforms, including more flexible employment laws, in the letter published in the Journal du Dimanche newspaper.
“France is turning into a pauper and is seeking to regain its lost pride,” he said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11734627/
It's a bitch, ain't it?
Bizarre situation, how can. Tsipras explain himself to the Greek people on this?
But there is an air of unreality about this; more debt, more austerity, further declines in GDP are on the way. The notion that this deal can be anything other than the most temporary palliative is fanciful.
That said, given that the SNP's goal is independence at whatever price that may be they will have no qualms about saying whatever they believe will best suit that purpose. The SNP leadership lied last year and will lie next time too. They lie because they know it does not matter. If they win, the result cannot ever be undone.
Brussels will hold a press conference very soon to reveal the details of the agreement. Painful.
[edited update] Finance ministers will now start urgent talks on discussing bridge financing for Greece, says Tusk.
That’s because Greece must repay over €7bn to the ECB in July and August, before any bailout cash can be handed over.
Don't give up the day job...
Typical EU can-kicking, it's now clear their intention is to force Greece to quit to Euro or even the EU by slow strangulation of their banking system.
a) they will get all this through parliament
b) the Greek people will accept it
c) the Greek government will actually stick to the deal
Maybe if the Greeks follow through on this deal they will be rewarded with debt relief? I disliked their pretence that not giving them more money was anti democratic but they were right they cannot ever pay back what they owe.
To be simplistic myself Game Theory demonstrates how both parties to a conflict can get worse results than they would have got if they refuse or are unable to co-operate and so reach the optimal outcome. The Greeks have taken this knowledge and ... refused to co-operate and got a worse outcome.
Seems like Game Theory in action to me!
Applause to @kle4 for suggesting the EU flag should be a boot and a can.
Just because it's not in Unite's rules anymore - doesn't make it legal to do illegal stuff.
Mme Legard must be regretting the day her predecessor ever got involved with the EZ.
They get to keep their assets at home, good - Greece always wanted the Parthenon and its marble friezes reunited, perhaps they can now flog the Acropolis to the British Museum.
I'm sure you find it hard to see your fellow leftist dreamers having to confront stark reality. But it was those same leftists overseeing the collapse in the Greek economy - and the consequential difficulties in importing medicine - that "kills people". Hardly a laughing matter.
And on that tortured metaphor, good day.
I quite like the idea of Jeremy Corbyn and Dan Hannan sharing a stage, both very eloquent speakers arguing for the same side - from very different points of view!
I can't honestly believe the hyperbolic nonsense from some regarding a 'Fourth Reich' 'Germany's reputation in tatters' etc. Comparing Merkel to Hitler FFS. This victimization of Greece, mainly from the Left and Ukippers is ridiculous, you'd believe countries are deliberately punishing Greece. This whole saga is one of broken trust, largely as a result of Tspiras stupidity. But the likes of France, Italy etc will learn in months down the line, when groundhog day occurs, for the fourth time, and Greece are asking for a fourth bailout.
Will the Greek Parliament acquiesce? I can see many MPs refusing to attend the vote. At best. At worst, they vote to pull the trigger one last time. Better dead than see all your economic assets handed over for an EU fire sale.
Can I please point out to those who are talking about can-kicking that actually, despite the Eurozone's comments, we do not have any sort of deal yet. First of all, these are only proposals that need ratifying by national parliaments. The odds of getting it through the Greek and German assemblies appear no better than 50/50 at the present time. Indeed, the speaker of the Greek assembly has already more than hinted that she will try to block it. Second, even if it does go through it will take too long to sort out to rescue the Greek banking system, which means that there is a real possibility that it will become irrelevant before it can be implemented. Thirdly, the only concrete agreement so far is to start negotiations on bridging finance for the banks - which is three weeks too late and will take at least ten days to put in place if it can be agreed at all.
So the crisis is not over by any means - in fact, it may be about to kick off properly. What we have, in a very EU fashion, is a very dishonest statement to try and restore confidence.
I've been swinging between In and Out for some years on the EU. The last three weeks and especially the last 48 hours have started pushing me very firmly towards Out.
@rosschawkins: Team Harman saying she's happy for new leader to reverse her stance on tax credits. One l/ship contender src says: that's nice of her