The EU will try to put together another package with minimal differences from the last one and force a second referendum.
The question is whether they will retain an each way bet on regime change by continuing the financial blockade of Greece's banks. If they do then the Greeks' next move is clearly to issue a scrip/IOU parallel currency, which takes us into new territory...
The ECB cannot resume funding Greek banks, because any money they sent would immediately disappear out the door.
I thought the ECB said this morning the level of emergency aid to Greece's banks would continue at its current levels?
Since the current levels are all but exhausted, this is essentially the same thing.
What is not being commented upon is the fact that the Eurozone countries and institutions have no prepared strategy for dealing with a Greek No vote. They are just reacting to events.
Yes, I think this is right. Even if they all wanted to help Greece avoid the consequences of the No vote, I don't think it's possible in the timescale available.
Clearly the key to this is the ECB, which will have to decide whether to pull the plug, leave the plug in place with the water steadily leaking out anyway, or drip a bit more into the bath whilst everyone figures out what to do next. My guess is they'll go for the middle option: no extra liquidity provided to Greek banks, but not immediately withdrawing the existing funding.
option 1 makes it the ECBs fault. Option 2 really doesn't help (the money has been spent) but option 3 is an utter no no for Germany...
Option 2 - do nothing seems to be the only choice it doesn't however solve anything and probably only kicks the can a couple of more days...
What is worrying is that nothing seems to have been done in the background last week....
What is not being commented upon is the fact that the Eurozone countries and institutions have no prepared strategy for dealing with a Greek No vote. They are just reacting to events.
Yes, I think this is right. Even if they all wanted to help Greece avoid the consequences of the No vote, I don't think it's possible in the timescale available.
Clearly the key to this is the ECB, which will have to decide whether to pull the plug, leave the plug in place with the water steadily leaking out anyway, or drip a bit more into the bath whilst everyone figures out what to do next. My guess is they'll go for the middle option: no extra liquidity provided to Greek banks, but not immediately withdrawing the existing funding.
Based on what MBE just posted isn't that effectively the same thing. If the existing funding is now almost exhausted then there is nothing left to 'withdraw' and the effect is basically the same as pulling the plug?
"There is currently a T-bill auction scheduled for 8th July, but it seems highly unlikely that this could go ahead. On 10th July, 2.25bn euros of T-bills need to be refinanced. It is at this point that the implications of ECB restrictions on ELA could come to bear and the Greek sovereign could default to its private sector creditors on Friday as a result."
You don't mean...you don't mean that private interests are playing a role?
It'll have little impact. The Greeks will almost certainly default, but the bondholders are professionals - they'll have covered these out with CDS a while back. They're not idiots.
A CDS needs someone on each side. Who would be the idiots to back the Greeks?
HSBC seem to think they are worth £5Bn of risk. I'm not particularly impressed with their exposure given they're my bank. They're big enough to easily withstand a default on the bonds, mind.
HSBC have had that liability for a long time though, probably been earning good rates on it too.
They'll undoubtedly get a haircut now - and their risk manager a P45 - but it's fortunately nowhere near enough to sink the bank even if they lose the lot!
Mr. N, surely Iceland stood up to the banks when they let them fail and started over rather than recapitalising them with taxpayers' money?
Point taken. They did well in Iceland too. But when international banks say "austerity or else" and a national government calls a referendum urging rejection of the blackmail, and gets a resounding majority, the publicity game has gone to a new level. It reminds me a bit of Poland where the negotiations between unions and employers were relayed using live audio to mass assemblies in 1980 or 1981. Not that the Greek government couldn't do more to expose the banks - it could and I hope it does. It's probably already saying more than is getting reported outside the country.
To the person who thinks it's Wolfie Smith (a TV sitcom reference, right?) to say the British economy is based (disregarding arms exports) on the square mile...no...I won't bother witha substantive response. I was expecting to be called an Elvis-Presley-Lives-On-The-Moon-ist for mentioning the Group of London :-) Funny how protection against a change in perspective works, and how it gets nasty and scoffs kneejerkily against sources of possible help.
The only minister ever to resign for winning a referendum?
Obviously part of a deal with someone for him to go.
Yep. Ignoring all the moronic comments from the likes of Carlotta and Foxinsox, those of us who have actually been following what has been happening will remember it was already agreed that Varoufakis would go whatever the result of the referendum. This was already discussed on Saturday.
Was this before or after he called Greeks creditors 'terrorists'? I guess we cannot really hope to believe newspaper reports, like in the Times which says ''Yanis Varoufakis unexpectedly announced his resignation as Greek finance minister this morning'' ''unexpectedly''
As I said it was already discussed before the referendum. In fact it was mentioned as part of the rolling coverage by the Telegraph after it had been mooted in Greece on Saturday. If you are too slow or too lost in your own bias to notice that then it is your problem not mine.
As a Kipper, you are so lost in your own bias and loathing of Cameron, you cannot see the wood for the trees... and that bias comes out in ever more disgruntled posts and attacks on other posters... irrespective of the subject matter
The more abusive he gets the weaker his argument. Never has one mortal been so blessed with such prescience and omniscience - we should be grateful he condescends to share his bountiful wisdom with us.....
Nope. My huge skills are simply limited to being able to read. Something that you and others on here seem to be incapable of relying instead on your Mystic Meg abilities to foresee the future.
You'd give Russell Grant a run for his money when it comes to the future of the EU!
I fear that the world's top banking officials have failed to learn the lessons from Lehmam's, which turned out to be a hole in the dam below the waterline. What we do know about Greece is that Plan A isn't working. I think forgiving say 50% of their Euroland/IMF debt and providing them with an economic stimulus package would be worth trying, before we jump into the unknown and test the systemic impact of the other options.
"There is currently a T-bill auction scheduled for 8th July, but it seems highly unlikely that this could go ahead. On 10th July, 2.25bn euros of T-bills need to be refinanced. It is at this point that the implications of ECB restrictions on ELA could come to bear and the Greek sovereign could default to its private sector creditors on Friday as a result."
You don't mean...you don't mean that private interests are playing a role?
It'll have little impact. The Greeks will almost certainly default, but the bondholders are professionals - they'll have covered these out with CDS a while back. They're not idiots.
A CDS needs someone on each side. Who would be the idiots to back the Greeks?
HSBC seem to think they are worth £5Bn of risk. I'm not particularly impressed with their exposure given they're my bank. They're big enough to easily withstand a default on the bonds, mind.
CDS were the ticking time bombs hidden in bank's vaults that caused the sub-prime housing crisis to explode. One thing we learnt from that crisis was the total lack of transparency, even within the banks themselves, about who owed who what if there was a default. One can only hope that that is not the case this time.
I recommend Gillian Tett's 'Fools Gold' book for anyone interested. Absolutely hair raising.
Based on what MBE just posted isn't that effectively the same thing. If the existing funding is now almost exhausted then there is nothing left to 'withdraw' and the effect is basically the same as pulling the plug?
Not quite, the timescales of the collapse are different. It's the difference between asking for immediate repayment of an overdraft, and refusing to increase the overdraft. In the first case you're bankrupt instantaneously. In the second you're not yet bankrupt but you can't spend any more.
The only minister ever to resign for winning a referendum?
Obviously part of a deal with someone for him to go.
Yep. Ignoring all the moronic comments from the likes of Carlotta and Foxinsox, those of us who have actually been following what has been happening will remember it was already agreed that Varoufakis would go whatever the result of the referendum. This was already discussed on Saturday.
Was this before or after he called Greeks creditors 'terrorists'? I guess we cannot really hope to believe newspaper reports, like in the Times which says ''Yanis Varoufakis unexpectedly announced his resignation as Greek finance minister this morning'' ''unexpectedly''
As I said it was already discussed before the referendum. In fact it was mentioned as part of the rolling coverage by the Telegraph after it had been mooted in Greece on Saturday. If you are too slow or too lost in your own bias to notice that then it is your problem not mine.
As a Kipper, you are so lost in your own bias and loathing of Cameron, you cannot see the wood for the trees... and that bias comes out in ever more disgruntled posts and attacks on other posters... irrespective of the subject matter
The more abusive he gets the weaker his argument. Never has one mortal been so blessed with such prescience and omniscience - we should be grateful he condescends to share his bountiful wisdom with us.....
Nope. My huge skills are simply limited to being able to read. Something that you and others on here seem to be incapable of relying instead on your Mystic Meg abilities to foresee the future.
You'd give Russell Grant a run for his money when it comes to the future of the EU!
Again ignoring the fact that I have based my comments on facts, treaties and actual analysis by people who know something whilst yours are based on wild speculation and bigotry.
Since I have actually now posted the comments from before the referendum result showing Varoufakis was already expected to be replaced no matter what the result perhaps you would have the good grace to admit you were wrong.
Off topic and of no use to anyone, for some reason last night I dreamed about the Labour leadership contest. Andy Burnham won, Jeremy Corbyn finished second, Yvette Cooper was third and Liz Kendall was fourth. Take that, psychic octopodes.
PBers who dream about the details of leadership elections should seek professional help. (Mind you, it's a perfectly plausible dream.)
Not quite as bad as the Telegraph, they have a clock counting down and apparently it is 67 days 12 hours 15 minutes and 31 secs until the new Labour leader is announced. They also have an article saying lobbyist Luke Akehurst believes Corbyn will come second
@BBCNormanS: Chancellor to make Commons statement on Greek crisis
It will presumably be 1,500 words that could be summarised as "blimey".
George Osborne will surely lament that the IMF is not run by a man with experience of coordinating international responses to financial crises, like, say, Gordon Brown. Blimey, he'll say, if only I'd not had the brilliant wheeze of blocking that appointment.
"There is currently a T-bill auction scheduled for 8th July, but it seems highly unlikely that this could go ahead. On 10th July, 2.25bn euros of T-bills need to be refinanced. It is at this point that the implications of ECB restrictions on ELA could come to bear and the Greek sovereign could default to its private sector creditors on Friday as a result."
You don't mean...you don't mean that private interests are playing a role?
It'll have little impact. The Greeks will almost certainly default, but the bondholders are professionals - they'll have covered these out with CDS a while back. They're not idiots.
A CDS needs someone on each side. Who would be the idiots to back the Greeks?
HSBC seem to think they are worth £5Bn of risk. I'm not particularly impressed with their exposure given they're my bank. They're big enough to easily withstand a default on the bonds, mind.
I agree its not great, but the cost of insuring bonds that were so risky for so long have been prohibitively high for a good while at this point. Sometimes its best just to accept its going to be written off.
Based on what MBE just posted isn't that effectively the same thing. If the existing funding is now almost exhausted then there is nothing left to 'withdraw' and the effect is basically the same as pulling the plug?
Not quite, the timescales of the collapse are different. It's the difference between asking for immediate repayment of an overdraft, and refusing to increase the overdraft. In the first case you're bankrupt instantaneously. In the second you're not yet bankrupt but you can't spend any more.
Thanks Richard. I have kind of been working on the basis that when the money runs out that is it and that that is likely in the next day or so.
I can't see the ECB backing down. They aren't the Eurocrats at the Commission. They're hard nosed German bankers from the Bundesbank, who were installed so that Germany would agree to the Euro.
The only minister ever to resign for winning a referendum?
Obviously part of a deal with someone for him to go.
Yep. Ignoring all the moronic comments from the likes of Carlotta and Foxinsox, those of us who have actually been following what has been happening will remember it was already agreed that Varoufakis would go whatever the result of the referendum. This was already discussed on Saturday.
Was this before or after he called Greeks creditors 'terrorists'? I guess we cannot really hope to believe newspaper reports, like in the Times which says ''Yanis Varoufakis unexpectedly announced his resignation as Greek finance minister this morning'' ''unexpectedly''
As I said it was already discussed before the referendum. In fact it was mentioned as part of the rolling coverage by the Telegraph after it had been mooted in Greece on Saturday. If you are too slow or too lost in your own bias to notice that then it is your problem not mine.
As a Kipper, you are so lost in your own bias and loathing of Cameron, you cannot see the wood for the trees... and that bias comes out in ever more disgruntled posts and attacks on other posters... irrespective of the subject matter
The more abusive he gets the weaker his argument. Never has one mortal been so blessed with such prescience and omniscience - we should be grateful he condescends to share his bountiful wisdom with us.....
Nope. My huge skills are simply limited to being able to read. Something that you and others on here seem to be incapable of relying instead on your Mystic Meg abilities to foresee the future.
You'd give Russell Grant a run for his money when it comes to the future of the EU!
Again ignoring the fact that I have based my comments on facts, treaties and actual analysis by people who know something whilst yours are based on wild speculation and bigotry.
Since I have actually now posted the comments from before the referendum result showing Varoufakis was already expected to be replaced no matter what the result perhaps you would have the good grace to admit you were wrong.
Since you have not challenged me on a single post and simply flung childish insults - perhaps you'll have the good grace to grow up?
@BBCNormanS: Chancellor to make Commons statement on Greek crisis
It will presumably be 1,500 words that could be summarised as "blimey".
George Osborne will surely lament that the IMF is not run by a man with experience of coordinating international responses to financial crises, like, say, Gordon Brown. Blimey, he'll say, if only I'd not had the brilliant wheeze of blocking that appointment.
Brown's forte was wrecking economies, not saving them.
Thanks Richard. I have kind of been working on the basis that when the money runs out that is it and that that is likely in the next day or so.
I think that is the case, but if the ECB keep the existing level of funding in place, the Greeks will be able to fudge things a bit, probably issuing IOUs, and pretend that they are still solvent and still members of the Eurozone. In other words they'll drift into a parallel currency, rather than a clean Grexit and an orderly switch to a new currency.
Since you have not challenged me on a single post and simply flung childish insults - perhaps you'll have the good grace to grow up?
You are the one who started throwing insults around this morning when I had had no interaction with you otherwise. And as I say it turns out that what I said was accurate in spite of your stupid comments.
But as I say you are not interested in either facts or accuracy - just your own warped view of the world.
I will continue to back up my posts with facts and talk about the issues whilst you continue to scrawl inanities.
Banks can continue to allow €60 withdrawals till Friday, if ECB continues to freeze emergency assistance, minister Stathakis tells me
"There are no Euros in this cash machine"
Obviously smart Greeks will have minimal funds in Greek bank accounts and the rest in Swiss Francs, Sterling, UK property, dollars, gold, Deutsche Bank accounts, FTSE, Dow, Dax stocks, German bonds, UK Gilts or w/e, overdraft to a Greek bank... just not a credit balance (Or at least minimal) with a Greek bank !
@BBCNormanS: Chancellor to make Commons statement on Greek crisis
It will presumably be 1,500 words that could be summarised as "blimey".
George Osborne will surely lament that the IMF is not run by a man with experience of coordinating international responses to financial crises, like, say, Gordon Brown. Blimey, he'll say, if only I'd not had the brilliant wheeze of blocking that appointment.
Brown's forte was wrecking economies, not saving them.
What's the Greek for 'No more boom and bust'?
The election is over so you can stop spinning and embrace Gordon Brown as the political colossus who saved the pound, saved the world and saved the union.
Obviously smart Greeks will have minimal funds in Greek bank accounts and the rest in Swiss Francs, Sterling, UK property, dollars, gold, Deutsche Bank accounts, FTSE, Dow, Dax stocks, German bonds, UK Gilts or w/e, overdraft to a Greek bank... just not a credit balance (Or at least minimal) with a Greek bank !
The key isn't so much personal accounts as business accounts. A business can't pay its employees and suppliers on €60 a day. That means everything comes to a halt, the shops gradually empty of stock, and wages stop being paid so even the €60 a day becomes unavailable to ordinary people.
A country can survive like that for a few days, but not for weeks on end. Most of those few days have already been used up.
It's a catastrophe for the Greeks however you look at it. I suppose they might as well party while they've still got the Ouzo.
Since you have not challenged me on a single post and simply flung childish insults - perhaps you'll have the good grace to grow up?
You are the one who started throwing insults around this morning when I had had no interaction with you otherwise.
I don't think the kippers have got over the deep joy felt by millions when Reckless got booted out by his electorate and Farage failed to win..... the tone has got worse since the GE.
You can still back Grexit this year on Betfair at odds against. That seems surprising to me, I have to say.
I'm not playing in that market because the definition of Grexit is rather unclear:
This market will be settled as 'Yes' if Greece has left the Eurozone and is using an alternative official currency other than the Eurozone's official currency by 31st December 2015. This market will be settled as 'No' if Greece has not left the Eurozone or is still using the Eurozone's currency as at 31st December 2015. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times.
If any doubt exists as to the outcome of the market, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official information before the market is settled.
This market will be settled upon official information from the Greek Interior Ministry
The trouble is that I think Greece may end up half in and half out of the Eurozone, still pretending to have the Euro as the official currency but in practice using a parallel pseudo-currency.
Since you have not challenged me on a single post and simply flung childish insults - perhaps you'll have the good grace to grow up?
You are the one who started throwing insults around this morning when I had had no interaction with you otherwise.
I don't think the kippers have got over the deep joy felt by millions when Reckless got booted out by his electorate and Farage failed to win..... the tone has got worse since the GE.
And wrong again. You really do make a habit of it don't you. Try going back and looking at my comments for months, if not years, before the election where I said that I hoped Farage would lose as his winning would be extremely bad for the Eurosceptic movement. Then go and look at the piece I actually wrote for PB where I said that Farage should be involved as little as possible in the referendum campaign.
I know you have your strange little world view where reality rarely if ever impinges but you really are excelling yourself with your idiocy this morning.
Since you have not challenged me on a single post and simply flung childish insults - perhaps you'll have the good grace to grow up?
You are the one who started throwing insults around this morning when I had had no interaction with you otherwise.
I don't think the kippers have got over the deep joy felt by millions when Reckless got booted out by his electorate and Farage failed to win..... the tone has got worse since the GE.
Just like the Nats.....the personal invective is in inverse proportion to the strength of their argument and in direct proportion to their paranoia
Thanks Richard. I have kind of been working on the basis that when the money runs out that is it and that that is likely in the next day or so.
I think that is the case, but if the ECB keep the existing level of funding in place, the Greeks will be able to fudge things a bit, probably issuing IOUs, and pretend that they are still solvent and still members of the Eurozone. In other words they'll drift into a parallel currency, rather than a clean Grexit and an orderly switch to a new currency.
The political move here would be to cut off some but not all of the banks, based on their degree of exposure to and support from the Greek state. This would stem the losses while communicating that what they're doing was about the solvency of the banks, rather than being a political move.
The trouble is that I think Greece may end up half in and half out of the Eurozone, still pretending to have the Euro as the official currency but in practice using a parallel pseudo-currency.
Since you have not challenged me on a single post and simply flung childish insults - perhaps you'll have the good grace to grow up?
You are the one who started throwing insults around this morning when I had had no interaction with you otherwise.
I don't think the kippers have got over the deep joy felt by millions when Reckless got booted out by his electorate and Farage failed to win..... the tone has got worse since the GE.
Just like the Nats.....the personal invective is in inverse proportion to the strength of their argument and in direct proportion to their paranoia
I'd advise a few weeks reading PB without commenting. I did so and it really opens your eyes to how pathetic little point scoring squabbles like this one look to the detached observer
'George Osborne will surely lament that the IMF is not run by a man with experience of coordinating international responses to financial crises, like, say, Gordon Brown. Blimey, he'll say, if only I'd not had the brilliant wheeze of blocking that appointment.'
Brown would have already written off the debt, fortunately these days he's kept away from anything to do with money and we can all sleep at night.
Since you have not challenged me on a single post and simply flung childish insults - perhaps you'll have the good grace to grow up?
You are the one who started throwing insults around this morning when I had had no interaction with you otherwise.
I don't think the kippers have got over the deep joy felt by millions when Reckless got booted out by his electorate and Farage failed to win..... the tone has got worse since the GE.
Just like the Nats.....the personal invective is in inverse proportion to the strength of their argument and in direct proportion to their paranoia
I'd advise a few weeks reading PB without commenting. I did so and it really opens your eyes to how pathetic little point scoring squabbles like this one look to the detached observer
Since you have not challenged me on a single post and simply flung childish insults - perhaps you'll have the good grace to grow up?
You are the one who started throwing insults around this morning when I had had no interaction with you otherwise.
I don't think the kippers have got over the deep joy felt by millions when Reckless got booted out by his electorate and Farage failed to win..... the tone has got worse since the GE.
And wrong again. You really do make a habit of it don't you. Try going back and looking at my comments for months, if not years, before the election where I said that I hoped Farage would lose as his winning would be extremely bad for the Eurosceptic movement. Then go and look at the piece I actually wrote for PB where I said that Farage should be involved as little as possible in the referendum campaign.
I know you have your strange little world view where reality rarely if ever impinges but you really are excelling yourself with your idiocy this morning.
In all honesty I don't think there is a Kipper who would be good for the No campaign.. so that wasn't difficult was it.. Dave (your best friend ) called it right
Since you have not challenged me on a single post and simply flung childish insults - perhaps you'll have the good grace to grow up?
You are the one who started throwing insults around this morning when I had had no interaction with you otherwise.
I don't think the kippers have got over the deep joy felt by millions when Reckless got booted out by his electorate and Farage failed to win..... the tone has got worse since the GE.
Just like the Nats.....the personal invective is in inverse proportion to the strength of their argument and in direct proportion to their paranoia
I'd advise a few weeks reading PB without commenting. I did so and it really opens your eyes to how pathetic little point scoring squabbles like this one look to the detached observer
I just pointed out a glaring case of hypocrisy without resorting to squabbles
Once I asked for evidence the poster in question couldn't respond and that was that
Apparently Greece gets about 24m tourists a year. If each tourist brings about 1,000 Euros cash with them, that is 2bn Euros a month of cash coming in and it must be much larger for the summer months. Will it be banked or used to pay the expenses of running a business?
Apparently Greece gets about 24m tourists a year. If each tourist brings about 1,000 Euros cash with them, that is 2bn Euros a month of cash coming in and it must be much larger for the summer months. Will it be banked or used to pay the expenses of running a business?
No Greek business in it's right mind would deposit physical Euros into a Greek bank account right now. Especially non "Y" prefixed ones. One non "y" Euro is worth 1 Euro. A nominal Euro in a Greek bank account is worth less than that.
ECB Nowtny, and President of the National Bank of Austria has said that expecting a new Greel day in two days is 'illusionary'. That's a bit of an issue then, given that the Greeks themselves have said there is only '48 hours' to keep Greece in the Euro. Regarding emergency liquidity for Greek banks, he also said 'recent developments don't make things easier'.
Meanwhile, Austria's finance minister FinMin Schelling says he thinks there's not much room for movement on Greece at Eurogroup meeting on Tuesday.
Apparently Greece gets about 24m tourists a year. If each tourist brings about 1,000 Euros cash with them, that is 2bn Euros a month of cash coming in and it must be much larger for the summer months. Will it be banked or used to pay the expenses of running a business?
Don't know about you, but I tend not to travel with huge amounts of cash, and simply withdraw what I need from ATMs...
Since you have not challenged me on a single post and simply flung childish insults - perhaps you'll have the good grace to grow up?
You are the one who started throwing insults around this morning when I had had no interaction with you otherwise.
I don't think the kippers have got over the deep joy felt by millions when Reckless got booted out by his electorate and Farage failed to win..... the tone has got worse since the GE.
Utter rubbish.
I was almost pleased when Farage did not get elected, he is such a divisive figure and I hope he is not allowed anywhere near the Out campaign.
What I was very pleased about re the GE was that Ukip got 13% of the vote, I had been bleating for months that the WWC had left Labour for good and I was proved right.
Apparently Greece gets about 24m tourists a year. If each tourist brings about 1,000 Euros cash with them, that is 2bn Euros a month of cash coming in and it must be much larger for the summer months. Will it be banked or used to pay the expenses of running a business?
Don't know about you, but I tend not to travel with huge amounts of cash, and simply withdraw what I need from ATMs...
Yes but are you planning on a Greek holiday ?
Paper Euros are the only game in town, frankly the €60 withdrawal can't be counted on right now.
Miss Plato, I think we can all agree an understanding of differential front end grip is the best way to guarantee civilised discourse.
Well... When a car is following another car closely, it travels mainly in the slipstream, that is the area of low pressure - 'hole' in the air, if you will - caused by the aerodynamic effect of the front car.
This is good news for the following car on a straight, as low pressure equals less resistance and higher speed, but not so good around corners or on the brakes as the thicker, high pressure air is needed to make the aerodynamics of the car press the vehicle towards the ground and enable higher cornering speeds.
An unusual phenomenon can occur as a car emerges from directly behind another as they enter a braking area, whereby one front wheel and half the wing is in the low pressure, low grip area yet the other half of the front of the car has high grip and downforce. This can cause the front tyre on the low pressure side to lock under braking and cause an accident, as was I believe once ably demonstrated by Jenson Button at Suzuka a few years back.
The EU will try to put together another package with minimal differences from the last one and force a second referendum.
The question is whether they will retain an each way bet on regime change by continuing the financial blockade of Greece's banks. If they do then the Greeks' next move is clearly to issue a scrip/IOU parallel currency, which takes us into new territory...
The ECB cannot resume funding Greek banks, because any money they sent would immediately disappear out the door.
I thought the ECB said this morning the level of emergency aid to Greece's banks would continue at its current levels?
Since the current levels are all but exhausted, this is essentially the same thing.
It's a stock not a flow.
Ah yes. Thanks MBE.
My pleasure Richard.
One of the things that irritates me about the reporting on this is I haven't seen anybody say just how close to running out the support is. Surely someone knows?
The EU will try to put together another package with minimal differences from the last one and force a second referendum.
The question is whether they will retain an each way bet on regime change by continuing the financial blockade of Greece's banks. If they do then the Greeks' next move is clearly to issue a scrip/IOU parallel currency, which takes us into new territory...
The ECB cannot resume funding Greek banks, because any money they sent would immediately disappear out the door.
I thought the ECB said this morning the level of emergency aid to Greece's banks would continue at its current levels?
Since the current levels are all but exhausted, this is essentially the same thing.
It's a stock not a flow.
Ah yes. Thanks MBE.
My pleasure Richard.
One of the things that irritates me about the reporting on this is I haven't seen anybody say just how close to running out the support is. Surely someone knows?
I have seen speculation saying that it would run out 'before the end of the week' but I have no idea what that is based on.
Apparently Greece gets about 24m tourists a year. If each tourist brings about 1,000 Euros cash with them, that is 2bn Euros a month of cash coming in and it must be much larger for the summer months. Will it be banked or used to pay the expenses of running a business?
Don't know about you, but I tend not to travel with huge amounts of cash, and simply withdraw what I need from ATMs...
Not many people do when travelling abroad – but if you are travelling to Greece it would certainly be advisable to do so - unless you wish to spend several hours a day of your holiday queueing at an ATM with no guaranty of a withdrawal.
Apparently Greece gets about 24m tourists a year. If each tourist brings about 1,000 Euros cash with them, that is 2bn Euros a month of cash coming in and it must be much larger for the summer months. Will it be banked or used to pay the expenses of running a business?
Don't know about you, but I tend not to travel with huge amounts of cash, and simply withdraw what I need from ATMs...
Yes but are you planning on a Greek holiday ?
Paper Euros are the only game in town, frankly the €60 withdrawal can't be counted on right now.
Well quite, but it seems to me that relying on 2 million tourists a month each bringing 1k with them is a bit of a gamble.
As it happens, Greece was a potential destination for us this year. Not any longer.
As a BOOer, I'm not happy at the prospect of the immense hardships that the Greeks are to undergo.
However, I'm thrilled at the spotlight it's shining on the EU and it's unlovely, undemocratic institutions. We are shackled to a corpse. Let's hope others come to the same realisation.
The comments from Germany, Austria and France referenced this morning confirm my earlier feeling that Tsipras will either have to accept very similar terms to those he has persuaded his people to reject yesterday or lead his country out of the Euro. The nonsense posted by some lefty cheerleaders and righty, Eurosceptics about a great defeat for the EU at the hnads of the plucky Greeks are looking increasingly silly as the day goes on. I dread to think what Miliband would have been saying had he still been leading the Labour party. Most of the leadership contenders seem to be wisely keeping quiet - so far...
Apparently Greece gets about 24m tourists a year. If each tourist brings about 1,000 Euros cash with them, that is 2bn Euros a month of cash coming in and it must be much larger for the summer months. Will it be banked or used to pay the expenses of running a business?
Don't know about you, but I tend not to travel with huge amounts of cash, and simply withdraw what I need from ATMs...
Not many people do when travelling abroad – but if you are travelling to Greece it would certainly be advisable to do so - unless you wish to spend several hours a day of your holiday queueing at an ATM with no guaranty of a withdrawal.
Exactly my point really - If I had to choose to either take all of my cash with me for the holiday or choose a different destination where I could just use ATMs, I know which I would choose.
'‘A common currency means common government; the one is meaningless and impossible without the other. Accept common money and you have accepted common government ….If one threatens to diverge what happens? …..they order it to alter its ways and dictate to it how to do so. Who then is doing the dictating? Where will be that common government which a common currency implies?……France and Germany, who hatched and willed this business, will see to it that they rule the roost: a Franco German hegemony , as France intends, or a German hegemony….All this has nothing to do with common markets or freedom of trade or all the alleged ideals of the EEC. Quite the reverse. This is not about freedom; it is about compulsion."
Mr. Felix, I believe Miliband would say the government has acted in a reckless and provocative manner, and that all sides should get around the negotiating table.
Mr. Felix, I believe Miliband would say the government has acted in a reckless and provocative manner, and that all sides should get around the negotiating table.
Mr. Felix, I believe Miliband would say the government has acted in a reckless and provocative manner, and that all sides should get around the negotiating table.
Inspired pit stop timing by Lewis on Saturday, must say !
Mr. Pulpstar, I think inspired is the exact word I used. It was brilliant, he timed it perfectly. A lap later and Rosberg would've passed him, a lap earlier and he would've lost too much time.
Worth noting Vettel made the same call and leapt from about 5th into 3rd.
Mr. Felix, I believe Miliband would say the government has acted in a reckless and provocative manner, and that all sides should get around the negotiating table.
It's lucky that Blair isn't President of Europe, else it would be '45 minutes to save the Euro', and Campbell would have found evidence that the Greeks had been stockpiling War strength Ouzo underneath the Parthenon.
Mr. 30, given what Blair did to the UK (and other countries) as PM, and his not necessarily stunning tenure as peace envoy to the Middle East, we should be extremely concerned he's now involved, I think, trying to stop extremism in Europe.
That said, still good he's not President of Euroland. The smirking clown ought to be shot into the heart of the sun from some sort of space cannon.
Since you have not challenged me on a single post and simply flung childish insults - perhaps you'll have the good grace to grow up?
You are the one who started throwing insults around this morning when I had had no interaction with you otherwise.
I don't think the kippers have got over the deep joy felt by millions when Reckless got booted out by his electorate and Farage failed to win..... the tone has got worse since the GE.
Utter rubbish.
I was almost pleased when Farage did not get elected, he is such a divisive figure and I hope he is not allowed anywhere near the Out campaign.
What I was very pleased about re the GE was that Ukip got 13% of the vote, I had been bleating for months that the WWC had left Labour for good and I was proved right.
UKIP probably took equally from the Tories and Labour and the LDs this time whereas in 2005 and 2010 they had taken mainly from the Tories. Labour's voteshare was actually up 1.5% on 2010, the Tories up 0.8%, the LDs down 15% (so the increase for the 2 main parties came principally from joining UKIP in eating from the LD carcass)
Off-topic, it's interesting to see The National in the newspaper selection up there.
What's happened with The National? In January, I heard that sales had fallen to about 15,000 which is still not terrible for a paper limited to Scotland alone. Have things perked up a bit since then? It made quite a few waves when it first arrived on the scene.
Apparently Greece gets about 24m tourists a year. If each tourist brings about 1,000 Euros cash with them, that is 2bn Euros a month of cash coming in and it must be much larger for the summer months. Will it be banked or used to pay the expenses of running a business?
Foreign tourism is a bit like exports but the customers come and collect goods and services for cash rather than the exporter having to deliver and give credit. Greece is really well placed with its large tourism industry.
Greece's exports plus tourism is well in excess of its imports so it shouldn't have any balance of trade problems if the banks were operating normally.
In terms of prize money this puts in jeopardy, surely one of the most expensive footie kickabouts in history.
Didn't Bill Shankly stop Liverpool playing cricket when he saw how dangerous it was?
There is a Cricinfo XI of cricket players injured in kickabout warm-ups.
Owais Shah hobbling Joe Denly in a "no tackles" kickabout was particularly silly.
"If people are going to get injured playing football we have got to have a look at it, there is no doubt about it," Strauss said. "It is very frustrating. You'd like to think the players would be sensible enough in the warm-up not to take it too far.
"I think they did today, so we will have to look at it definitely. When we do play football in the morning we have a no-tackling rule but I am not sure it was heeded today."
Some top understatement in there. Apparently that's the route to the top!
O/T but talking of ATMs - I'm taking a 3-week holiday in the US shortly, the first time I'v ebeen there for 7 years. Is there a significant advantage in taking money in cash rather than relying on withdrawals from my debit card? Will a standard current account debit card even work in the US (not too keen to pay the cost of cash in foreign currency from creidt cards, though I suppose it's the sensible option for hotel bills), and do I need to inform the bank that I'm travelling so they don't think I'm a fraudster who's stolen the card?
In Athens, cash machines are increasingly failing to dispense the full amount allowed under the current capital controls. John Hooper reports:
A tour of banks in the capital this morning showed that, while depositors are notionally allowed €60 a day under the capital controls, increasingly €50 is the norm. That could help explain why the government is reportedly confident that Greece’s ATMs can continue to dole out cash till Friday.
Resorting to sleight of hand tricks so early in the game?
The comments from Germany, Austria and France referenced this morning confirm my earlier feeling that Tsipras will either have to accept very similar terms to those he has persuaded his people to reject yesterday or lead his country out of the Euro. The nonsense posted by some lefty cheerleaders and righty, Eurosceptics about a great defeat for the EU at the hnads of the plucky Greeks are looking increasingly silly as the day goes on. I dread to think what Miliband would have been saying had he still been leading the Labour party. Most of the leadership contenders seem to be wisely keeping quiet - so far...
Someone will have to blink. To me it looks like it will be Europe, despite the rhetoric. But I won't be betting on it :-)
So if Greece were to sell off a couple of islands to Russia - ideal site for an air base and a navy base - might there be some geo-political consequences?
@bbclaurak: Most Greeks we ve spoken to so far say vote was not about economics, was about pride and dignity
@bbclaurak: 'We ve had enough' the big message so far, whatever the economy does next
I think these people are about to be very, very unhappy.
Pride and dignity are largely responsible for this whole mess IMO. Joining a club with northern European powerhouse economies means ditching those values in favour of hard-nosed logic and rationalism. The Protestant vs Catholic / Orthodox division is alive and well in Europe iit seems.
Comments
Option 2 - do nothing seems to be the only choice it doesn't however solve anything and probably only kicks the can a couple of more days...
What is worrying is that nothing seems to have been done in the background last week....
They'll undoubtedly get a haircut now - and their risk manager a P45 - but it's fortunately nowhere near enough to sink the bank even if they lose the lot!
To the person who thinks it's Wolfie Smith (a TV sitcom reference, right?) to say the British economy is based (disregarding arms exports) on the square mile...no...I won't bother witha substantive response. I was expecting to be called an Elvis-Presley-Lives-On-The-Moon-ist for mentioning the Group of London :-) Funny how protection against a change in perspective works, and how it gets nasty and scoffs kneejerkily against sources of possible help.
@AFP: #BREAKING Up to Greece to act if it wants to stay in euro: Germany
I recommend Gillian Tett's 'Fools Gold' book for anyone interested. Absolutely hair raising.
Guido's cartoonist this morning came up with "A Feta worse than Debt"
Since I have actually now posted the comments from before the referendum result showing Varoufakis was already expected to be replaced no matter what the result perhaps you would have the good grace to admit you were wrong.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11720055/Jeremy-Corbyn-is-a-close-second-in-Labour-leadership-race.html
€56 Bn was the last figure I saw but at some point they might decide to stop chucking good money after bad I guess.
What's the Greek for 'No more boom and bust'?
But as I say you are not interested in either facts or accuracy - just your own warped view of the world.
I will continue to back up my posts with facts and talk about the issues whilst you continue to scrawl inanities.
Banks can continue to allow €60 withdrawals till Friday, if ECB continues to freeze emergency assistance, minister Stathakis tells me
Obviously smart Greeks will have minimal funds in Greek bank accounts and the rest in Swiss Francs, Sterling, UK property, dollars, gold, Deutsche Bank accounts, FTSE, Dow, Dax stocks, German bonds, UK Gilts or w/e, overdraft to a Greek bank... just not a credit balance (Or at least minimal) with a Greek bank !
A country can survive like that for a few days, but not for weeks on end. Most of those few days have already been used up.
It's a catastrophe for the Greeks however you look at it. I suppose they might as well party while they've still got the Ouzo.
This market will be settled as 'Yes' if Greece has left the Eurozone and is using an alternative official currency other than the Eurozone's official currency by 31st December 2015. This market will be settled as 'No' if Greece has not left the Eurozone or is still using the Eurozone's currency as at 31st December 2015. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times.
If any doubt exists as to the outcome of the market, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official information before the market is settled.
This market will be settled upon official information from the Greek Interior Ministry
The trouble is that I think Greece may end up half in and half out of the Eurozone, still pretending to have the Euro as the official currency but in practice using a parallel pseudo-currency.
I know you have your strange little world view where reality rarely if ever impinges but you really are excelling yourself with your idiocy this morning.
Brent Crude has dropped below $60 for the first time since April.
'George Osborne will surely lament that the IMF is not run by a man with experience of coordinating international responses to financial crises, like, say, Gordon Brown. Blimey, he'll say, if only I'd not had the brilliant wheeze of blocking that appointment.'
Brown would have already written off the debt, fortunately these days he's kept away from anything to do with money and we can all sleep at night.
Does that mean they will fund them, or not?
@Reuters: BREAKING: ECB's Nowotny on emergency funding for Greek banks - Developments in Greece have not made it easier for ECB to act.
https://audioboom.com/boos/1079562-david-cameron-ukip-a-bunch-of-fruitcakes-loonies-and-closet-racists
Once I asked for evidence the poster in question couldn't respond and that was that
Meanwhile, Austria's finance minister FinMin Schelling says he thinks there's not much room for movement on Greece at Eurogroup meeting on Tuesday.
I was almost pleased when Farage did not get elected, he is such a divisive figure and I hope he is not allowed anywhere near the Out campaign.
What I was very pleased about re the GE was that Ukip got 13% of the vote, I had been bleating for months that the WWC had left Labour for good and I was proved right.
Paper Euros are the only game in town, frankly the €60 withdrawal can't be counted on right now.
This is good news for the following car on a straight, as low pressure equals less resistance and higher speed, but not so good around corners or on the brakes as the thicker, high pressure air is needed to make the aerodynamics of the car press the vehicle towards the ground and enable higher cornering speeds.
An unusual phenomenon can occur as a car emerges from directly behind another as they enter a braking area, whereby one front wheel and half the wing is in the low pressure, low grip area yet the other half of the front of the car has high grip and downforce. This can cause the front tyre on the low pressure side to lock under braking and cause an accident, as was I believe once ably demonstrated by Jenson Button at Suzuka a few years back.
Edit. Or rather 'not legal'. Is there a subtle difference between the two?
One of the things that irritates me about the reporting on this is I haven't seen anybody say just how close to running out the support is. Surely someone knows?
Mr. England, all the nations are equal. But a few are more equal than others.
Mr. Sandpit, odd formatting. And yes, that's undoubtedly why you've mastered civilised discourse
Another unelected prat butts his oar in, do these idiots not see how comments like that look to the world outside their little bubble?
As it happens, Greece was a potential destination for us this year. Not any longer.
In terms of prize money this puts in jeopardy, surely one of the most expensive footie kickabouts in history.
However, I'm thrilled at the spotlight it's shining on the EU and it's unlovely, undemocratic institutions. We are shackled to a corpse. Let's hope others come to the same realisation.
'‘A common currency means common government; the one is meaningless and impossible without the other. Accept common money and you have accepted common government ….If one threatens to diverge what happens? …..they order it to alter its ways and dictate to it how to do so. Who then is doing the dictating? Where will be that common government which a common currency implies?……France and Germany, who hatched and willed this business, will see to it that they rule the roost: a Franco German hegemony , as France intends, or a German hegemony….All this has nothing to do with common markets or freedom of trade or all the alleged ideals of the EEC. Quite the reverse. This is not about freedom; it is about compulsion."
Chancellor Osborne to make statement to Parliament at 15:30 UK time. - Daily Telegraph
Worth noting Vettel made the same call and leapt from about 5th into 3rd.
That said, still good he's not President of Euroland. The smirking clown ought to be shot into the heart of the sun from some sort of space cannon.
What's happened with The National? In January, I heard that sales had fallen to about 15,000 which is still not terrible for a paper limited to Scotland alone. Have things perked up a bit since then? It made quite a few waves when it first arrived on the scene.
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Greece's exports plus tourism is well in excess of its imports so it shouldn't have any balance of trade problems if the banks were operating normally.
Owais Shah hobbling Joe Denly in a "no tackles" kickabout was particularly silly. Some top understatement in there. Apparently that's the route to the top!
A tour of banks in the capital this morning showed that, while depositors are notionally allowed €60 a day under the capital controls, increasingly €50 is the norm. That could help explain why the government is reportedly confident that Greece’s ATMs can continue to dole out cash till Friday.
Resorting to sleight of hand tricks so early in the game?
@bbclaurak: 'We ve had enough' the big message so far, whatever the economy does next
I think these people are about to be very, very unhappy.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/to-lie-with-impunity/#more-72685