I'm totally perplexed by all this - I can see limp-wrists letting Greece get away with it again. They've let it get so bad, now holding their nerve is even harder to swallow.
But of a windup merchant today, but this place is so one-sided these days had to have a bit of fun on the odd moment that the sociopaths of the world don't get their own way. Just been reading a lot about the Cretan resistance in WWII, I think anyone knowing anything about their history could have predicted a certain No vote to permanent German enslavement.
So whose savings would you see destroyed to relieve the Greeks of their obligations?
Venezuela isn't going to the IMF any time soon either (predictions of Venezuela default have being going on for 15 years, wishful thinking).
Interesting choice of example given that this government of Venzuela could not supply a single roll of Andrex onto which the Greek government could print their Y coded Euros.
You may have been "cosseted" into a good university but you really need to get out and about more.
Laughing at the bunch of prematurely senile middle aged accountants and over educated toffs on here being resolutely unable to get their heads round some actual humanity doing real human stuff.
It's more than a bit sad that there is somebody on here so emotionally disturbed that he(?) finds the collapse of an entire country on the basis of a lie they were told in a referendum campaign to be funny.
Of course, the childish abuse is par for the course from Labour propagandists these days...in a way, having benefitted hugely from those decent middle-ground old Labour types who taught me when I was growing up in an ex-mining area, people who cared about and dedicated their lives to helping the poor, that's even sadder.
The jealousy and spite about your lack of success and inadequate education are fortunately not insoluble, however. The Open University does excellent courses, but be warned they are academically rigorous. Alternatively, if you live in London, Birkbeck might be able to help.
I'm not a labour supporter or propagandist. Just enjoying doing research into the fascinating state of the dysfunctional right-wing mind for a book. I'm perfectly well educated thanks. Just stating that having been hothoused into the right university via the usual privileged channels does not in itself make one intelligent, as so many contributions on here prove.
Yeah, not everyone on here scornful of Greece's tactics is right wing, dysfunctional or otherwise, or got into the !right' university thanks to privilege, just as everyone cheering them is a labour propagandist.
It's an unfortunate trait of some on PB to assign beliefs and opinions to others, based on their own prejudices. "If you disagree with me you must be ...."
This is the problem for the ECB - creating a precedence. The economies of many other EZ countries are in a parlous state - but they do better than the Greeks regarding pensions and retirement age and collecting taxes. The problem for the Greeks is admitting that their idyllic way of life is over for ever, but also they have a lot of fiscal catching up to do.
I'm totally perplexed by all this - I can see limp-wrists letting Greece get away with it again. They've let it get so bad, now holding their nerve is even harder to swallow.
But of a windup merchant today, but this place is so one-sided these days had to have a bit of fun on the odd moment that the sociopaths of the world don't get their own way. Just been reading a lot about the Cretan resistance in WWII, I think anyone knowing anything about their history could have predicted a certain No vote to permanent German enslavement.
So whose savings would you see destroyed to relieve the Greeks of their obligations?
See Sandpit [8.10] - your question is only vaguely connected to reality, if at all.
And now I must be off: a hospital appointment beckons.
[Admiral Byng:] Do you mean the last chap executed for 'failing to engage the enemy', 1750s? That decision was widely considered wrong, against almost all public interest, and IIRC, brought about a change in the law?
Not 'failing to engage the enemy' - failing to do his utmost in the presence of the enemy. There is a difference. The first remained - indeed, I think remains - a court-martial offence, because it implied cowardice.
The second was so difficult to work out that it was never actually successfully prosecuted again, although I think Robert Calder was charged with it after his engagement with Villeneuve in 1805.
As I recall - I haven't checked - Byng attacked a group of ships but then backed off due to an adverse tide and let some of them get away. He was therefore accused of having failed to press the attack when he should, found guilty, and shot.
Up till the moment he was shot, everyone thought he'd be pardoned. Byng's descendants still hold an annual memorial service for him in Potters Bar church, and want a formal pardon.
But of a windup merchant today, but this place is so one-sided these days had to have a bit of fun on the odd moment that the sociopaths of the world don't get their own way. Just been reading a lot about the Cretan resistance in WWII, I think anyone knowing anything about their history could have predicted a certain No vote to permanent German enslavement.
If you do not want the Devil to claim his kilo of flesh, then you should not seek favours from him in the first place.
It is not usually a good tactic to insult your rescuer before aggressively begging for help.
Germany is not the country it was 70 years ago. The Germans will not be shooting Cretans, they will be buying up their properties at firesale prices.
But of a windup merchant today, but this place is so one-sided these days had to have a bit of fun on the odd moment that the sociopaths of the world don't get their own way. Just been reading a lot about the Cretan resistance in WWII, I think anyone knowing anything about their history could have predicted a certain No vote to permanent German enslavement.
If you do not want the Devil to claim his kilo of flesh, then you should not seek favours from him in the first place.
It is not usually a good tactic to insult your rescuer before aggressively begging for help.
Germany is not the country it was 70 years ago. The Germans will not be shooting Cretans, they will be buying up their properties at firesale prices.
1. The creditors hold the cards now. How they respond to the vote determines what happens next.
2. The ECB will not cut ELA, kill the banks and force an exit until a political decision is made. That might be tomorrow or it might not.
3 . This could end very quickly or it could drag out until the 20th July and a missed ECB payment.
4. Creditors clearly divided - IMF vs many on debt restructuring. France & Italy pushing for a deal, Germany/Eastern Europe more hardline.
5. Greek government sounded more conciliatory last night, less bombastic nationalism than in recent days.
6. Again - creditors are weighing up economic costs of Greek exit vs political costs of a Greek win. That's the choice they have to make.
Two countries: Venezuela, Spain. A name from the past: Admiral Byng
Do you mean the last chap executed for 'failing to engage the enemy', 1750s? That decision was widely considered wrong, against almost all public interest, and IIRC, brought about a change in the law?
Byng is remembered in the famous phrase, "pour encourager les autres":
Byng's execution was satirized by Voltaire in his novel Candide. In Portsmouth, Candide witnesses the execution of an officer by firing squad; and is told that "in this country, it is good to kill an admiral from time to time, in order to encourage the others" (Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres).
Greece will not be the country on Merkel's mind.....
But as Mortimer says the basis of the satire was a widely reviled act that brought an end to such practices. I think publically sacrificing an entire nation for political expediency might be seen with similar revulsion.
It has also been argued that Byng's execution gave British naval commanders a real psychological edge their opponents were fully aware of. Who do you think Merkel would rather face down - Greece or Spain?
Not that I've seen - and if it has been a argued, it has probably been done badly. Byng's ezecution, if anything, brought the admiralty into disrepute.
The EU project would be brought into disrepute if they:
A) kick Greece out fail to trump up some cash to help Greece
Whether they'll do it quick enough, who knows.
There has to be moral hazard for the lenders, and those that profit from currency advantage whilst a nation, albeit a profgliate one that doesn't like paying taxes, is being sacrificed.
The only minister ever to resign for winning a referendum?
Obviously part of a deal with someone for him to go.
Yep. Ignoring all the moronic comments from the likes of Carlotta and Foxinsox, those of us who have actually been following what has been happening will remember it was already agreed that Varoufakis would go whatever the result of the referendum. This was already discussed on Saturday.
But of a windup merchant today, but this place is so one-sided these days had to have a bit of fun on the odd moment that the sociopaths of the world don't get their own way. Just been reading a lot about the Cretan resistance in WWII, I think anyone knowing anything about their history could have predicted a certain No vote to permanent German enslavement.
If you do not want the Devil to claim his kilo of flesh, then you should not seek favours from him in the first place.
It is not usually a good tactic to insult your rescuer before aggressively begging for help.
Germany is not the country it was 70 years ago. The Germans will not be shooting Cretans, they will be buying up their properties at firesale prices.
'The problem for the Greeks is admitting that their idyllic way of life is over for ever' Haha, you are one of the most loony on here, given this is a country that has lived through a fascist dictatorship well within living memory, as well as an apocalyptic nazi occupation and ensuing civil war a little further back, I think they'll survive.
The only minister ever to resign for winning a referendum?
Obviously part of a deal with someone for him to go.
Yep. Ignoring all the moronic comments from the likes of Carlotta and Foxinsox, those of us who have actually been following what has been happening will remember it was already agreed that Varoufakis would go whatever the result of the referendum. This was already discussed on Saturday.
Was this before or after he called Greeks creditors 'terrorists'? I guess we cannot really hope to believe newspaper reports, like in the Times which says ''Yanis Varoufakis unexpectedly announced his resignation as Greek finance minister this morning'' ''unexpectedly''
1. The creditors hold the cards now. How they respond to the vote determines what happens next.
2. The ECB will not cut ELA, kill the banks and force an exit until a political decision is made. That might be tomorrow or it might not.
3 . This could end very quickly or it could drag out until the 20th July and a missed ECB payment.
4.
6. Again - creditors are weighing up economic costs of Greek exit vs political costs of a Greek win. That's the choice they have to make.
Two countries: Venezuela, Spain. A name from the past: Admiral Byng
Do you mean the last chap executed for 'failing to engage the enemy', 1750s? That decision was widely considered wrong, against almost all public interest, and IIRC, brought about a change in the law?
Byng is remembered in the famous phrase, "pour encourager les autres":
Byng's execution was satirized by Voltaire in his novel Candide. In Portsmouth, Candide witnesses the execution of an officer by firing squad; and is told that "in this country, it is good to kill an admiral from time to time, in order to encourage the others" (Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres).
Greece will not be the country on Merkel's mind.....
But as Mortimer says the basis of the satire was a widely reviled act that brought an end to such practices. I think publically sacrificing an entire nation for political expediency might be seen with similar revulsion.
It has also been argued that Byng's execution gave British naval commanders a real psychological edge their opponents were fully aware of. Who do you think Merkel would rather face down - Greece or Spain?
Not that I've seen - and if it has been a argued, it has probably been done badly. Byng's ezecution, if anything, brought the admiralty into disrepute.
The EU project would be brought into disrepute if they:
A) kick Greece out fail to trump up some cash to help Greece
Whether they'll do it quick enough, who knows.
There has to be moral hazard for the lenders, and those that profit from currency advantage whilst a nation, albeit a profgliate one that doesn't like paying taxes, is being sacrificed.
NAM Rodger has written probably the definitive history of the Royal Navy, and is very much of the view that Byng's execution (and other death sentences handed down to captains) were a key factor in the unusual degree of aggression shown by the Navy in the late 18th and early 19th centuries.
As an aside, there are many - Charles, Richard Tyndall and others - who correctly judge that those who lend money should bear some of the risk themselves.
The necessary corollary of this must be that those who lent money to the Greek banks must bear some of the risk themselves. They chose to lend money to Pireas Bank, knowing that money was going - in turn - to be lent to the Greek state.
If we accept that those who lend money must bear some responsibility, then the next logical step must be a dramatic haircut of balances in the Greek banking system.
1. The creditors hold the cards now. How they respond to the vote determines what happens next.
2. The ECB will not cut ELA, kill the banks and force an exit until a political decision is made. That might be tomorrow or it might not.
3 . This could end very quickly or it could drag out until the 20th July and a missed ECB payment.
4. Creditors clearly divided - IMF vs many on debt restructuring. France & Italy pushing for a deal, Germany/Eastern Europe more hardline.
5. Greek government sounded more conciliatory last night, less bombastic nationalism than in recent days.
6. Again - creditors are weighing up economic costs of Greek exit vs political costs of a Greek win. That's the choice they have to make.
Two countries: Venezuela, Spain. A name from the past: Admiral Byng
Do you mean the last chap executed for 'failing to engage the enemy', 1750s? That decision was widely considered wrong, against almost all public interest, and IIRC, brought about a change in the law?
Byng is remembered in the famous phrase, "pour encourager les autres":
Byng's execution was satirized by Voltaire in his novel Candide. In Portsmouth, Candide witnesses the execution of an officer by firing squad; and is told that "in this country, it is good to kill an admiral from time to time, in order to encourage the others" (Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres).
Greece will not be the country on Merkel's mind.....
But as Mortimer says the basis of the satire was a widely reviled act that brought an end to such practices. I think publically sacrificing an entire nation for political expediency might be seen with similar revulsion.
It has also been argued that Byng's execution gave British naval commanders a real psychological edge their opponents were fully aware of. Who do you think Merkel would rather face down - Greece or Spain?
Not that I've seen - and if it has been a argued, it has probably been done badly.
N A M Rodger:
"a culture of aggressive determination which set British officers apart from their foreign contemporaries, and which in time gave them a steadily mounting psychological ascendancy. More and more in the course of the century, and for long afterwards, British officers encountered opponents who expected to be attacked, and more than half expected to be beaten, so that [the latter] went into action with an invisible disadvantage which no amount of personal courage or numerical strength could entirely make up for."
It has also been argued that Byng's execution gave British naval commanders a real psychological edge their opponents were fully aware of. Who do you think Merkel would rather face down - Greece or Spain?
This would imply that North Korea runs an excellent military operation
1) The Greek government has a clear mandate (in fact an obligation) to continue to press for better terms. 2) While this does not bind other governments or the IMF, they would be wise to have regard to this. 3) However, Greece continues to owe the money and cannot expect to set its own terms with its creditors. 4) All the hard thinking needs to be done on the EU side, since the Greek side's hands are tied by its own actions. And the choices for the EU are between bad and worse. 5) It was not a humiliation for the EU to argue that a No vote was a No to the Euro and to then see a decisive No vote. By intervening in the referendum campaign in this way, it now has permission to read a No vote in this way. This is politically essential if Greece is ultimately to be forced out of the Eurozone, as may very well happen. The Greeks can't say that the EU didn't warn them.
Given the choice between encouraging moral hazard and risking having to deal with Greeks rioting and starving in the streets, I'd prefer to risk a bit more moral hazard.
I don't think that the EU negotiators are that open-minded. I get the sense that they now want Mr Tsipras' blood.
1. The creditors hold the cards now. How they respond to the vote determines what happens next.
2. The ECB will not cut ELA, kill the banks and force an exit until a political decision is made. That might be tomorrow or it might not.
3 . This could end very quickly or it could drag out until the 20th July and a missed ECB payment.
4. Creditors clearly divided - IMF vs many on debt restructuring. France & Italy pushing for a deal, Germany/Eastern Europe more hardline.
5. Greek government sounded more conciliatory last night, less bombastic nationalism than in recent days.
6. Again - creditors are weighing up economic costs of Greek exit vs political costs of a Greek win. That's the choice they have to make.
Two countries: Venezuela, Spain. A name from the past: Admiral Byng
Do you mean the last chap executed for 'failing to engage the enemy', 1750s? That decision was widely considered wrong, against almost all public interest, and IIRC, brought about a change in the law?
Byng is remembered in the famous phrase, "pour encourager les autres":
Byng's execution was satirized by Voltaire in his novel Candide. In Portsmouth, Candide witnesses the execution of an officer by firing squad; and is told that "in this country, it is good to kill an admiral from time to time, in order to encourage the others" (Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres).
Greece will not be the country on Merkel's mind.....
But as Mortimer says the basis of the satire was a widely reviled act that brought an end to such practices. I think publically sacrificing an entire nation for political expediency might be seen with similar revulsion.
It has also been argued that Byng's execution gave British naval commanders a real psychological edge their opponents were fully aware of. Who do you think Merkel would rather face down - Greece or Spain?
The real lesson of Admiral Byng is that those in authority can scapegoat others to cover up their own failings - which is what the admiralty did and what the EU and its supporters are now doing.
Given the choice between encouraging moral hazard and risking having to deal with Greeks rioting and starving in the streets, I'd prefer to risk a bit more moral hazard.
I don't think that the EU negotiators are that open-minded. I get the sense that they now want Mr Tsipras' blood.
I suspect they might go the other way
Eject Greece. Riots and food shortages. Swan in with "humanitarian aid"
But of a windup merchant today, but this place is so one-sided these days had to have a bit of fun on the odd moment that the sociopaths of the world don't get their own way. Just been reading a lot about the Cretan resistance in WWII, I think anyone knowing anything about their history could have predicted a certain No vote to permanent German enslavement.
If you do not want the Devil to claim his kilo of flesh, then you should not seek favours from him in the first place.
It is not usually a good tactic to insult your rescuer before aggressively begging for help.
Germany is not the country it was 70 years ago. The Germans will not be shooting Cretans, they will be buying up their properties at firesale prices.
No they won't, that's the point. They remember fighting a genocidal occupier against all odds to preserve their independence, they aren't going to roll over and be enslaved by neoliberal vultures.
If the EU now folds it will show that any country can outplay it, even when it has no cards.
With PODEMAS possibly rising to power in Spain is that really something they want to do ?
Podemos is in third in the Spanish opinion polls. It is possible (although unlikely) that they "win" the next General Election in Spain. But in those circumstances it will be with them as on of four parties all on about 20% - and it'd be much more likely we'd see a PSOE/PP Grand Coalition, or a coalition between one of the big two with Citizens.
It's also worth remembering that the Spanish proportional system will work against Podemos. Spain has multimember constituencies based around provinces. In the countryside it may well run up 15% vote shares, but that will translate into no seats. In rural constituencies of 3 seats, it is highly likely that the PP will get 2 and PSOE 1. This means that Podemos is likely to get far fewer members than its vote share, while the PP (which is over-represented in the less populous rural constituencies) will be over-represented.
The consequence of all this, is that absent something major happening (like a complete cave to SYRIZA in Greece), Podemos is unlikely to take power in Spain. (And even in that incredibly unlikely scenario, it would be in coalition with the much more moderate PSOE.)
The only minister ever to resign for winning a referendum?
Obviously part of a deal with someone for him to go.
Yep. Ignoring all the moronic comments from the likes of Carlotta and Foxinsox, those of us who have actually been following what has been happening will remember it was already agreed that Varoufakis would go whatever the result of the referendum. This was already discussed on Saturday.
Was this before or after he called Greeks creditors 'terrorists'? I guess we cannot really hope to believe newspaper reports, like in the Times which says ''Yanis Varoufakis unexpectedly announced his resignation as Greek finance minister this morning'' ''unexpectedly''
As I said it was already discussed before the referendum. In fact it was mentioned as part of the rolling coverage by the Telegraph after it had been mooted in Greece on Saturday. If you are too slow or too lost in your own bias to notice that then it is your problem not mine.
'The problem for the Greeks is admitting that their idyllic way of life is over for ever' Haha, you are one of the most loony on here, given this is a country that has lived through a fascist dictatorship well within living memory, as well as an apocalyptic nazi occupation and ensuing civil war a little further back, I think they'll survive.
Just not as loony as you appear to be with your outbursts. If you can retire at 55 and have a sufficient pension, then that is part of the idyllic life - as is not paying the required taxes to fund this infrastructure.
As an aside, there are many - Charles, Richard Tyndall and others - who correctly judge that those who lend money should bear some of the risk themselves.
The necessary corollary of this must be that those who lent money to the Greek banks must bear some of the risk themselves. They chose to lend money to Pireas Bank, knowing that money was going - in turn - to be lent to the Greek state.
If we accept that those who lend money must bear some responsibility, then the next logical step must be a dramatic haircut of balances in the Greek banking system.
Agreed. Though I am not sure how much money is left in the Greek banking system to actually effect this?
The real analogy is Ahab going down into the deep with Moby Dick. Sticking it to someone crying 'Have at yee' is all very well for the Greeks. They are still drowning. And the much vaunted Drachma? How well did endless devaluations fare for the Greeks in the past? All the Greeks have given is a green light to continuing corruption in the stupid notion that perpetual devaluation, the debasement of their currency, is somehow different to 'austerity'. Good luck to them with that. They have not voted against leaving the EU nor Euro (even if that's what happens) they have voted to stay in their fantasy world. It's no wonder the loony toon kipperati are up there with them.
As an aside, there are many - Charles, Richard Tyndall and others - who correctly judge that those who lend money should bear some of the risk themselves.
The necessary corollary of this must be that those who lent money to the Greek banks must bear some of the risk themselves. They chose to lend money to Pireas Bank, knowing that money was going - in turn - to be lent to the Greek state.
If we accept that those who lend money must bear some responsibility, then the next logical step must be a dramatic haircut of balances in the Greek banking system.
Agreed. Though I am not sure how much money is left in the Greek banking system to actually effect this?
The vast majority of poorer Greeks still have their money in the bank. In total there are EUR130bn of deposits (give or take). Like so often, it is the rich - with their accounts in Geneva or Nassau - who have been able to withdraw their money and who will not suffer the inevitable 30% haircut.
The only minister ever to resign for winning a referendum?
Obviously part of a deal with someone for him to go.
Yep. Ignoring all the moronic comments from the likes of Carlotta and Foxinsox, those of us who have actually been following what has been happening will remember it was already agreed that Varoufakis would go whatever the result of the referendum. This was already discussed on Saturday.
Was this before or after he called Greeks creditors 'terrorists'? I guess we cannot really hope to believe newspaper reports, like in the Times which says ''Yanis Varoufakis unexpectedly announced his resignation as Greek finance minister this morning'' ''unexpectedly''
As I said it was already discussed before the referendum. In fact it was mentioned as part of the rolling coverage by the Telegraph after it had been mooted in Greece on Saturday. If you are too slow or too lost in your own bias to notice that then it is your problem not mine.
As a Kipper, you are so lost in your own bias and loathing of Cameron, you cannot see the wood for the trees... and that bias comes out in ever more disgruntled posts and attacks on other posters... irrespective of the subject matter
As an aside, there are many - Charles, Richard Tyndall and others - who correctly judge that those who lend money should bear some of the risk themselves.
The necessary corollary of this must be that those who lent money to the Greek banks must bear some of the risk themselves. They chose to lend money to Pireas Bank, knowing that money was going - in turn - to be lent to the Greek state.
If we accept that those who lend money must bear some responsibility, then the next logical step must be a dramatic haircut of balances in the Greek banking system.
Surely that argument is really from 5 years ago when the debt was owned by the French and German banks stupid enough to lend money to Greece, not now when those loans are no longer owned by the banks but by European Governments...
Yes there should be a haircut in the Greek banking system but as I think the only thing left there (unless you have no common sense and haven't watched the news) is working capital I don't know what good that haircut will really do...
The only minister ever to resign for winning a referendum?
Obviously part of a deal with someone for him to go.
Yep. Ignoring all the moronic comments from the likes of Carlotta and Foxinsox, those of us who have actually been following what has been happening will remember it was already agreed that Varoufakis would go whatever the result of the referendum. This was already discussed on Saturday.
Was this before or after he called Greeks creditors 'terrorists'? I guess we cannot really hope to believe newspaper reports, like in the Times which says ''Yanis Varoufakis unexpectedly announced his resignation as Greek finance minister this morning'' ''unexpectedly''
As I said it was already discussed before the referendum. In fact it was mentioned as part of the rolling coverage by the Telegraph after it had been mooted in Greece on Saturday. If you are too slow or too lost in your own bias to notice that then it is your problem not mine.
As a Kipper, you are so lost in your own bias and loathing of Cameron, you cannot see the wood for the trees... and that bias comes out in ever more disgruntled posts and attacks on other posters... irrespective of the subject matter
The more abusive he gets the weaker his argument. Never has one mortal been so blessed with such prescience and omniscience - we should be grateful he condescends to share his bountiful wisdom with us.....
As an aside, there are many - Charles, Richard Tyndall and others - who correctly judge that those who lend money should bear some of the risk themselves.
The necessary corollary of this must be that those who lent money to the Greek banks must bear some of the risk themselves. They chose to lend money to Pireas Bank, knowing that money was going - in turn - to be lent to the Greek state.
If we accept that those who lend money must bear some responsibility, then the next logical step must be a dramatic haircut of balances in the Greek banking system.
Surely that argument is really from 5 years ago when the debt was owned by the French and German banks stupid enough to lend money to Greece, not now when those loans are no longer owned by the banks but by European Governments...
Yes there should be a haircut in the Greek banking system but as I think the only thing left there (unless you have no common sense and haven't watched the news) is working capital I don't know what good that haircut will really do...
However the Greek crisis is resolved: through the introduction of the New Drachma, through a or a haircut on deposit, it will be the ordinary savers of Greece who pay the price.
As an aside, there are many - Charles, Richard Tyndall and others - who correctly judge that those who lend money should bear some of the risk themselves.
The necessary corollary of this must be that those who lent money to the Greek banks must bear some of the risk themselves. They chose to lend money to Pireas Bank, knowing that money was going - in turn - to be lent to the Greek state.
If we accept that those who lend money must bear some responsibility, then the next logical step must be a dramatic haircut of balances in the Greek banking system.
Agreed. Though I am not sure how much money is left in the Greek banking system to actually effect this?
The vast majority of poorer Greeks still have their money in the bank. In total there are EUR130bn of deposits (give or take). Like so often, it is the rich - with their accounts in Geneva or Nassau - who have been able to withdraw their money and who will not suffer the inevitable 30% haircut.
It amazes me that there's any deposits left in Greek banks at all. Given the electorate for the referendum was around 10m, that's EUR13,000 for every adult in the country!!
As an aside, there are many - Charles, Richard Tyndall and others - who correctly judge that those who lend money should bear some of the risk themselves.
The necessary corollary of this must be that those who lent money to the Greek banks must bear some of the risk themselves. They chose to lend money to Pireas Bank, knowing that money was going - in turn - to be lent to the Greek state.
If we accept that those who lend money must bear some responsibility, then the next logical step must be a dramatic haircut of balances in the Greek banking system.
Agreed. Though I am not sure how much money is left in the Greek banking system to actually effect this?
The vast majority of poorer Greeks still have their money in the bank. In total there are EUR130bn of deposits (give or take). Like so often, it is the rich - with their accounts in Geneva or Nassau - who have been able to withdraw their money and who will not suffer the inevitable 30% haircut.
It amazes me that there's any deposits left in Greek banks at all. Given the electorate for the referendum was around 10m, that's EUR13,000 for every adult in the country!!
It's not just individuals, but businesses too.
Of course, it's hard to make payroll when your bank balance has just been cut in half.
It's going to get nasty when the banks remain closed, and the EU doesn't turn the money taps back on.
Yep and I don't think the banks can be opened. Greece has moved to an all cash economy and doesn't have enough notes to satisfy current demand... At some point this week there will be nothing left to stock the ATMs. There is no money left will for once be physically true.
Even if the ELA allowed the banks to borrow more money (and somehow I doubt the banks are solvent enough for that to happen) the cash withdrawals are such that further withdrawals will eventually make the banks insolvent..
The ironic thing is that the above would be true regardless of what the vote was.... The problem with a No vote is that people are going to blame Varoufakis and co..
And it seems Varoufakis has gone which seems to be at the behest of everyone on the other side of the table...
The idea that the Greeks think this is a sufficient step to encourage the other EZ members to even return to the table is yet another example of their shocking naivety.
I'd rather have seen a Yes but my immediate prediction when the vote was called was a big No (though i waffled in the face of the polls) - people rally round the leader in this sort of thing.
But I think you're mistaken in expecting an EU hard line. The EU only does fudges. They are past masters at fudges, and it's arguably the only way you can get anything done with 28 mostly sovereign countries. Felix is right: "we're gonna get a lot of fudge but essentially the Greeks are gonna be shafted amidst a cloud of candy floss". We can expect a long period of difficult Greeek austerity (whic hTsipras will blame on foreigners) without a flash-bang denounement.
Incidentally, Varoufakis's resignation was demanded internally as well by centrist pro-No people, and will I think have been pre-scripted.
What is not being commented upon is the fact that the Eurozone countries and institutions have no prepared strategy for dealing with a Greek No vote. They are just reacting to events.
The irony of someone who can post the paranoid nonsense below having the lack of self awareness to say others are so lost in their own bias and hatred they can't see things clearly
SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 2,033 July 1 HELP PLEASE
Just as a matter of interest for now, Does anyone recall the BBC saying that in Brown's era if Brown said XYZ then they reported it as the Chancellor/PM CLAIMED rather than said.
I have noted of late that the BBC have started to use the CLAIM word (recently re G Osborne and the better than expected GDP figures) rather than report what was said .... eg the Chancellor claimed rather than the Chancellor said..
Slight change but it conveys a completely different meaning.
Off topic and of no use to anyone, for some reason last night I dreamed about the Labour leadership contest. Andy Burnham won, Jeremy Corbyn finished second, Yvette Cooper was third and Liz Kendall was fourth. Take that, psychic octopodes.
Rightly or wrongly, a lot of people in Europe think the Eurozone would be a lot stronger without Greece.
Speaking as someone who works for an exporter - the sooner Greece exits the Euro the better. Great for holiday makers and people looking to invest in Europe mind...
What is not being commented upon is the fact that the Eurozone countries and institutions have no prepared strategy for dealing with a Greek No vote. They are just reacting to events.
Their strategy will be to follow the path of least resistance. Which means, not cutting off ELA, but not extending it either. The banks will therefore stay shut. And Greeks will quietly begin to starve.
The irony of someone who can post the paranoid nonsense below having the lack of self awareness to say others are so lost in their own bias and hatred they can't see things clearly
SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 2,033 July 1 HELP PLEASE
Just as a matter of interest for now, Does anyone recall the BBC saying that in Brown's era if Brown said XYZ then they reported it as the Chancellor/PM CLAIMED rather than said.
I have noted of late that the BBC have started to use the CLAIM word (recently re G Osborne and the better than expected GDP figures) rather than report what was said .... eg the Chancellor claimed rather than the Chancellor said..
Slight change but it conveys a completely different meaning.
Its actually a factual observation.. They never did it in Brown's day, as someone pointed out they used to say that "The Treasury's view" was..
Its an interesting change in terminology that's was worth highlighting.
What is not being commented upon is the fact that the Eurozone countries and institutions have no prepared strategy for dealing with a Greek No vote. They are just reacting to events.
Their strategy will be to follow the path of least resistance. Which means, not cutting off ELA, but not extending it either. The banks will therefore stay shut. And Greeks will quietly begin to starve.
Will they? They have now embarked on more meetings and consultations.... Giving the Greeks hope of a new deal.
Market reaction surprisingly modest. UK down 1%, continental markets down 1.5%. Italian government bonds are trading slightly weaker; Spain almost flat.
The irony of someone who can post the paranoid nonsense below having the lack of self awareness to say others are so lost in their own bias and hatred they can't see things clearly
SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 2,033 July 1 HELP PLEASE
Just as a matter of interest for now, Does anyone recall the BBC saying that in Brown's era if Brown said XYZ then they reported it as the Chancellor/PM CLAIMED rather than said.
I have noted of late that the BBC have started to use the CLAIM word (recently re G Osborne and the better than expected GDP figures) rather than report what was said .... eg the Chancellor claimed rather than the Chancellor said..
Slight change but it conveys a completely different meaning.
Its actually a factual observation.. They never did it in Brown's day, as someone pointed out they used to say that "The Treasury's view" was..
Its an interesting change in terminology that's was worth highlighting.
Oh it's fact now is it? You were asking before if anyone recalled
You've been through every news item from the BBC while Brown and Osborne were chancellor and compared the findings then. What were the results?
Or are you just seeing things the way the paranoia guides you?
It's going to get nasty when the banks remain closed, and the EU doesn't turn the money taps back on.
Yep and I don't think the banks can be opened. Greece has moved to an all cash economy and doesn't have enough notes to satisfy current demand... At some point this week there will be nothing left to stock the ATMs. There is no money left will for once be physically true.
Even if the ELA allowed the banks to borrow more money (and somehow I doubt the banks are solvent enough for that to happen) the cash withdrawals are such that further withdrawals will eventually make the banks insolvent..
The ironic thing is that the above would be true regardless of what the vote was.... The problem with a No vote is that people are going to blame Varoufakis and co..
And it seems Varoufakis has gone which seems to be at the behest of everyone on the other side of the table...
The idea that the Greeks think this is a sufficient step to encourage the other EZ members to even return to the table is yet another example of their shocking naivety.
..... Incidentally, Varoufakis's resignation was demanded internally as well by centrist pro-No people, and will I think have been pre-scripted.
It does seem to have followed the Greek PM's chat with Hollande.
What is not being commented upon is the fact that the Eurozone countries and institutions have no prepared strategy for dealing with a Greek No vote. They are just reacting to events.
Their strategy will be to follow the path of least resistance. Which means, not cutting off ELA, but not extending it either. The banks will therefore stay shut. And Greeks will quietly begin to starve.
Will they? They have now embarked on more meetings and consultations.... Giving the Greeks hope of a new deal.
But actually raising the ELA requires a decision. And the political will to make a decision (any decision) is not there.
The irony of someone who can post the paranoid nonsense below having the lack of self awareness to say others are so lost in their own bias and hatred they can't see things clearly
SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 2,033 July 1 HELP PLEASE
Just as a matter of interest for now, Does anyone recall the BBC saying that in Brown's era if Brown said XYZ then they reported it as the Chancellor/PM CLAIMED rather than said.
I have noted of late that the BBC have started to use the CLAIM word (recently re G Osborne and the better than expected GDP figures) rather than report what was said .... eg the Chancellor claimed rather than the Chancellor said..
Slight change but it conveys a completely different meaning.
Its actually a factual observation.. They never did it in Brown's day, as someone pointed out they used to say that "The Treasury's view" was..
Its an interesting change in terminology that's was worth highlighting.
Google returns only two results for "Chancellor claimed" on the BBC site since 2010. One from 2013, and one from March this year. Bunch of lefties imo.
The irony of someone who can post the paranoid nonsense below having the lack of self awareness to say others are so lost in their own bias and hatred they can't see things clearly
SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 2,033 July 1 HELP PLEASE
Just as a matter of interest for now, Does anyone recall the BBC saying that in Brown's era if Brown said XYZ then they reported it as the Chancellor/PM CLAIMED rather than said.
I have noted of late that the BBC have started to use the CLAIM word (recently re G Osborne and the better than expected GDP figures) rather than report what was said .... eg the Chancellor claimed rather than the Chancellor said..
Slight change but it conveys a completely different meaning.
Its actually a factual observation.. They never did it in Brown's day, as someone pointed out they used to say that "The Treasury's view" was..
Its an interesting change in terminology that's was worth highlighting.
Google returns only two results for "Chancellor claimed" on the BBC site since 2010. One from 2013, and one from March this year. Bunch of lefties imo.
does Google give returns for what is said on BBC radio and TV?
(or tweeted to be precise): Well done to the people of Greece. European leaders should now respond constructively to the democratic voice of the Greek people.
How much Scottish tax payers money is the SNP Foreign Affairs spokesman proposing they send?
Hopefully less than we have continuously bailed out London with over last 30 years
The EU will try to put together another package with minimal differences from the last one and force a second referendum.
The question is whether they will retain an each way bet on regime change by continuing the financial blockade of Greece's banks. If they do then the Greeks' next move is clearly to issue a scrip/IOU parallel currency, which takes us into new territory...
"There is currently a T-bill auction scheduled for 8th July, but it seems highly unlikely that this could go ahead. On 10th July, 2.25bn euros of T-bills need to be refinanced. It is at this point that the implications of ECB restrictions on ELA could come to bear and the Greek sovereign could default to its private sector creditors on Friday as a result."
The EU will try to put together another package with minimal differences from the last one and force a second referendum.
The question is whether they will retain an each way bet on regime change by continuing the financial blockade of Greece's banks. If they do then the Greeks' next move is clearly to issue a scrip/IOU parallel currency, which takes us into new territory...
The ECB cannot resume funding Greek banks, because any money they sent would immediately disappear out the door.
The irony of someone who can post the paranoid nonsense below having the lack of self awareness to say others are so lost in their own bias and hatred they can't see things clearly
SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 2,033 July 1 HELP PLEASE
Just as a matter of interest for now, Does anyone recall the BBC saying that in Brown's era if Brown said XYZ then they reported it as the Chancellor/PM CLAIMED rather than said.
I have noted of late that the BBC have started to use the CLAIM word (recently re G Osborne and the better than expected GDP figures) rather than report what was said .... eg the Chancellor claimed rather than the Chancellor said..
Slight change but it conveys a completely different meaning.
Its actually a factual observation.. They never did it in Brown's day, as someone pointed out they used to say that "The Treasury's view" was..
Its an interesting change in terminology that's was worth highlighting.
Google returns only two results for "Chancellor claimed" on the BBC site since 2010. One from 2013, and one from March this year. Bunch of lefties imo.
does Google give returns for what is said on BBC radio and TV?
What proof do you have that the BBC didn't use 'claim' when Brown spoke?
The irony of someone who can post the paranoid nonsense below having the lack of self awareness to say others are so lost in their own bias and hatred they can't see things clearly
SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 2,033 July 1 HELP PLEASE
Just as a matter of interest for now, Does anyone recall the BBC saying that in Brown's era if Brown said XYZ then they reported it as the Chancellor/PM CLAIMED rather than said.
I have noted of late that the BBC have started to use the CLAIM word (recently re G Osborne and the better than expected GDP figures) rather than report what was said .... eg the Chancellor claimed rather than the Chancellor said..
Slight change but it conveys a completely different meaning.
Its actually a factual observation.. They never did it in Brown's day, as someone pointed out they used to say that "The Treasury's view" was..
Its an interesting change in terminology that's was worth highlighting.
Google returns only two results for "Chancellor claimed" on the BBC site since 2010. One from 2013, and one from March this year. Bunch of lefties imo.
does Google give returns for what is said on BBC radio and TV?
No, but you'd have expected any anti-Osborne diktat to apply across the board. It is typical of the Tory-run BBC that it cannot enact its own anti-government plots like a chocolate fireguard in a brewery.
What is not being commented upon is the fact that the Eurozone countries and institutions have no prepared strategy for dealing with a Greek No vote. They are just reacting to events.
Their strategy will be to follow the path of least resistance. Which means, not cutting off ELA, but not extending it either. The banks will therefore stay shut. And Greeks will quietly begin to starve.
Will they? They have now embarked on more meetings and consultations.... Giving the Greeks hope of a new deal.
But actually raising the ELA requires a decision. And the political will to make a decision (any decision) is not there.
It's interesting, apropos this and the comments around Greek banking sector deposits, to consider Moody's most recent assessment last Thursday:
"Moody's estimates that domestic private-sector deposits have declined by around €44 billion since the end of last November to approximately €120 billion. Outflows in the last two weeks alone were in excess of €8 billion.
In response to the persistent decline in deposits, the ECB had in recent weeks allowed the Bank of Greece to gradually increase the amount of ELA provided to the Greek banking sector. However, the ECB's decision on 28 June to freeze the ELA limit at around €89 billion heightens liquidity risk and leaves the banks without an alternative funding source. Moody's estimates that the Greek banking system is now more reliant on funding from the Eurosystem, either in the form of ELA or regular funding, than on domestic private-sector customer deposits."
Either way, bad news for depositors. Particularly as the Greek deposit insurance fund only stands at around E3bn (shortly to be raided as well, I'll bet...).
The irony of someone who can post the paranoid nonsense below having the lack of self awareness to say others are so lost in their own bias and hatred they can't see things clearly
SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 2,033 July 1 HELP PLEASE
Just as a matter of interest for now, Does anyone recall the BBC saying that in Brown's era if Brown said XYZ then they reported it as the Chancellor/PM CLAIMED rather than said.
I have noted of late that the BBC have started to use the CLAIM word (recently re G Osborne and the better than expected GDP figures) rather than report what was said .... eg the Chancellor claimed rather than the Chancellor said..
Slight change but it conveys a completely different meaning.
Its actually a factual observation.. They never did it in Brown's day, as someone pointed out they used to say that "The Treasury's view" was..
Its an interesting change in terminology that's was worth highlighting.
Google returns only two results for "Chancellor claimed" on the BBC site since 2010. One from 2013, and one from March this year. Bunch of lefties imo.
does Google give returns for what is said on BBC radio and TV?
What proof do you have that the BBC didn't use 'claim' when Brown spoke?
The only minister ever to resign for winning a referendum?
Obviously part of a deal with someone for him to go.
Yep. Ignoring all the moronic comments from the likes of Carlotta and Foxinsox, those of us who have actually been following what has been happening will remember it was already agreed that Varoufakis would go whatever the result of the referendum. This was already discussed on Saturday.
Was this before or after he called Greeks creditors 'terrorists'? I guess we cannot really hope to believe newspaper reports, like in the Times which says ''Yanis Varoufakis unexpectedly announced his resignation as Greek finance minister this morning'' ''unexpectedly''
As I said it was already discussed before the referendum. In fact it was mentioned as part of the rolling coverage by the Telegraph after it had been mooted in Greece on Saturday. If you are too slow or too lost in your own bias to notice that then it is your problem not mine.
As a Kipper, you are so lost in your own bias and loathing of Cameron, you cannot see the wood for the trees... and that bias comes out in ever more disgruntled posts and attacks on other posters... irrespective of the subject matter
As an idiot you fail to realise that I have made absolutely no mention of Cameron at any point during discussions of the Greek Crisis. The only mention I have made at any time of any Conservatives with regard to this is to mention how well Osborne seems to have prepared for these eventualities and his deft avoidance of taking sides.
Discuss the points at hand rather than your own f**kwitted bias and we might get somewhere.
The EU will try to put together another package with minimal differences from the last one and force a second referendum.
The question is whether they will retain an each way bet on regime change by continuing the financial blockade of Greece's banks. If they do then the Greeks' next move is clearly to issue a scrip/IOU parallel currency, which takes us into new territory...
The ECB cannot resume funding Greek banks, because any money they sent would immediately disappear out the door.
Morning all,
Well, I wasn't expecting such a large 'No' - astounding.
As to ECB cash, that's the point of supplying the cash (liquidity) isn't it?
The only minister ever to resign for winning a referendum?
Obviously part of a deal with someone for him to go.
Yep. Ignoring all the moronic comments from the likes of Carlotta and Foxinsox, those of us who have actually been following what has been happening will remember it was already agreed that Varoufakis would go whatever the result of the referendum. This was already discussed on Saturday.
Was this before or after he called Greeks creditors 'terrorists'? I guess we cannot really hope to believe newspaper reports, like in the Times which says ''Yanis Varoufakis unexpectedly announced his resignation as Greek finance minister this morning'' ''unexpectedly''
As I said it was already discussed before the referendum. In fact it was mentioned as part of the rolling coverage by the Telegraph after it had been mooted in Greece on Saturday. If you are too slow or too lost in your own bias to notice that then it is your problem not mine.
As a Kipper, you are so lost in your own bias and loathing of Cameron, you cannot see the wood for the trees... and that bias comes out in ever more disgruntled posts and attacks on other posters... irrespective of the subject matter
The more abusive he gets the weaker his argument. Never has one mortal been so blessed with such prescience and omniscience - we should be grateful he condescends to share his bountiful wisdom with us.....
Nope. My huge skills are simply limited to being able to read. Something that you and others on here seem to be incapable of relying instead on your Mystic Meg abilities to foresee the future.
The irony of someone who can post the paranoid nonsense below having the lack of self awareness to say others are so lost in their own bias and hatred they can't see things clearly
SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 2,033 July 1 HELP PLEASE
Just as a matter of interest for now, Does anyone recall the BBC saying that in Brown's era if Brown said XYZ then they reported it as the Chancellor/PM CLAIMED rather than said.
I have noted of late that the BBC have started to use the CLAIM word (recently re G Osborne and the better than expected GDP figures) rather than report what was said .... eg the Chancellor claimed rather than the Chancellor said..
Slight change but it conveys a completely different meaning.
Its actually a factual observation.. They never did it in Brown's day, as someone pointed out they used to say that "The Treasury's view" was..
Its an interesting change in terminology that's was worth highlighting.
Google returns only two results for "Chancellor claimed" on the BBC site since 2010. One from 2013, and one from March this year. Bunch of lefties imo.
does Google give returns for what is said on BBC radio and TV?
What proof do you have that the BBC didn't use 'claim' when Brown spoke?
I suggest you go back and read what I wrote .....
''HELP PLEASE
Just as a matter of interest for now, Does anyone recall the BBC saying that in Brown's era if Brown said XYZ then they reported it as the Chancellor/PM CLAIMED rather than said.'
On-topic: if the EU are going to fudge this, don't they need to crack on? Without some action soon, Greece will simply have no money, to paraphrase Liam Byrne.
This is a great day. I wish we had a government like that in Britain.
For starters, and contrary to what's being said in the British press, the euro isn't the issue. Look, this is about bankers holding a population to ransom for the same reason dogs licks their town halls - because they can, Because they've got the power to do so.
And guess which is the bankiest country in Europe - that's right. That one where the entire economy, bar arms exports, is based around a square mile.
The media are also writing as if they are the headmaster and those naughty naughty pupils have got their punishment coming to them as if it was an objectively necessary consequence of their actions, or as if they were single mothers on a council estate wanting the life of Riley. Yes folks, guess which party is in the government in Britain.
Meanwhile not a single newspaper is mentioning the Group of London, the central body of private banks which sets policy for lending to states. I would have thought they'd be a player, wouldn't you?
What's going to happen is that the banks, and the private equity interests that control many of them, are going to try to impose starvation on Greece. Several newspapers have noticed that the banks control the money supply and therefore can block food imports. The last thing they want is the moneylenders' sovereign right to claim their repayments, regardless of whether people lose their homes or starve, to start to be challenged by large populations in other European countries. They don't want Europe to continue to wake up. That's why they are pushing the propaganda line that Greece is somehow against Europe.
It's starvation or we sort the moneylenders out.
All hail Tsipras and Syriza - a genuinely popular government and a European first: a government that has stood up to the banks and done it in public.
The EU will try to put together another package with minimal differences from the last one and force a second referendum.
The question is whether they will retain an each way bet on regime change by continuing the financial blockade of Greece's banks. If they do then the Greeks' next move is clearly to issue a scrip/IOU parallel currency, which takes us into new territory...
The ECB cannot resume funding Greek banks, because any money they sent would immediately disappear out the door.
I thought the ECB said this morning the level of emergency aid to Greece's banks would continue at its current levels?
"There is currently a T-bill auction scheduled for 8th July, but it seems highly unlikely that this could go ahead. On 10th July, 2.25bn euros of T-bills need to be refinanced. It is at this point that the implications of ECB restrictions on ELA could come to bear and the Greek sovereign could default to its private sector creditors on Friday as a result."
You don't mean...you don't mean that private interests are playing a role?
F1: rumours of Aston Martin tying up with Red Bull to get Mercedes engines. But then, there were rumours of Audi buying Red Bull too.
Provided a decent-sized grid is maintained, losing the political tosh of Red Bull would not be a bad thing.
I have more time for Red Bull than I do for Mercedes. Red Bull stuck around during the financial crisis unlike the car manufacturers. Mercedes lobbied hard for the change to V6 turbos, so they are just as political. If Mercedes hang around during the next recession - and given what's going on at the moment it might not be too far away - then I'll have more respect for them.
Just remember, Ferrari - and now McLaren - sell road cars to fund their racing addiction. Mercedes are in F1 to sell their road cars.
"There is currently a T-bill auction scheduled for 8th July, but it seems highly unlikely that this could go ahead. On 10th July, 2.25bn euros of T-bills need to be refinanced. It is at this point that the implications of ECB restrictions on ELA could come to bear and the Greek sovereign could default to its private sector creditors on Friday as a result."
You don't mean...you don't mean that private interests are playing a role?
It'll have little impact. The Greeks will almost certainly default, but the bondholders are professionals - they'll have covered these out with CDS a while back. They're not idiots.
Mr. 86, too early to say on Mercedes, though they appear to have agreed with regulation changes (resistant on the engines, though) that could cost them time, whereas Red Bull only ever campaign for changes that benefit themselves.
The current engines were agreed by all manufacturers. Red Bull only had a problem with it when the Renault turned out to be relatively slow.
Edited extra bit: all teams are political, to a lesser or greater extent, but Red Bull seem the worst in that regard, I think.
On-topic: if the EU are going to fudge this, don't they need to crack on? Without some action soon, Greece will simply have no money, to paraphrase Liam Byrne.
I believe the crucial meeting of ECB governors or whatever they are called is today.
On-topic: if the EU are going to fudge this, don't they need to crack on? Without some action soon, Greece will simply have no money, to paraphrase Liam Byrne.
I believe the crucial meeting of ECB governors or whatever they are called is today.
It's like a premier lague manager's musings on his team.
Just to repeat for those who seem to be surprised by the resignation this morning, this was from yesterday morning, long before any indications of a NO win had emerged:
Off topic and of no use to anyone, for some reason last night I dreamed about the Labour leadership contest. Andy Burnham won, Jeremy Corbyn finished second, Yvette Cooper was third and Liz Kendall was fourth. Take that, psychic octopodes.
PBers who dream about the details of leadership elections should seek professional help. (Mind you, it's a perfectly plausible dream.)
If the way that western economies now operate results in the top 1% annually taking a larger slice of the pie whilst more people each year have little left to lose, then sooner or later they will be in serious trouble.
There will always be disparities in wealth but economic & political systems that are only perceived to deliver the goods for the few will ultimately be replaced. The current economic orthodoxy (markets are sacrosanct) has only been dominant for 30 years, a pin prick in historical terms.
A little balance is required - although I would benefit greatly from the proposed new Inheritance tax changes they are just wrong at time when many less well off people are having their standards cut further and we are supposedly trying to reduce our deficit. It is political hubris.
When people no longer have a stake they will not necessarily vote rationally as we saw in Greece last night and whoever it was that was gloating that the Germans would now be able to buy second homes in Greece at knock down prices all I would say is good luck to the German family that goes there on holiday in those circumstances because they will need it!
If the EU does now make concessions to Greece, then Tspiras will be perceived as a hero and the anti-austerity parties all over Europe will surge. Interesting times. I will now retire & put my tin hat on as this blog has, regrettably, become even more politically unbalanced since May.
Somebody correct me if I'm wrong here, but as far as I can tell the only certainty is that Greece isn't paying all the money back.
With that in mind the IMF/Euro Group has to decide if they want some of the money back and come to a negotiated settlement with Greece about debt forgiveness, or none of the money back by 'playing hardball'. If it was just down to economics they'd do the former, but politics, especially within Germany seems to be making them do the latter, which is madness.
The EU will try to put together another package with minimal differences from the last one and force a second referendum.
The question is whether they will retain an each way bet on regime change by continuing the financial blockade of Greece's banks. If they do then the Greeks' next move is clearly to issue a scrip/IOU parallel currency, which takes us into new territory...
The ECB cannot resume funding Greek banks, because any money they sent would immediately disappear out the door.
I thought the ECB said this morning the level of emergency aid to Greece's banks would continue at its current levels?
Since the current levels are all but exhausted, this is essentially the same thing.
Today';s Stage Three finishing on the Mur du Hoy is a great opportunity for Peter Sagan who can still be had at 33/1 with BetFred.
Each Way advised.
I've gone for a small each way tickle on Chris Froome (£5 ew; Ladbrokes (50-1)). He crashed 2015 Fleche Wallone and didn't take part 2014 and earlier so he's a bit of an unknown factor here to my PoV...
Valverde obviously starts as favourite given his Fleche Wallone wins (5-2 I'm not touching though), but Chris put a touch of time into Contador yesterday at the end (3 seconds) - I think he's in great shape and he's better at these short uphills than say Quintana.
50-1 is very comparable with the lay price on Betfair and beats the "Top 3" price on the place part by a considerable margin for Chris Froome.
Albasini at 16s could be worth a look, I'd avoid/consider laying Dan Martin at ~ 7s, and Purito at ~ 6s though.
Sagan at 33s seems fair enough too (It's suit him more if the finish was shortly AFTER Mur not on it though ) - best of luck !
"There is currently a T-bill auction scheduled for 8th July, but it seems highly unlikely that this could go ahead. On 10th July, 2.25bn euros of T-bills need to be refinanced. It is at this point that the implications of ECB restrictions on ELA could come to bear and the Greek sovereign could default to its private sector creditors on Friday as a result."
You don't mean...you don't mean that private interests are playing a role?
It'll have little impact. The Greeks will almost certainly default, but the bondholders are professionals - they'll have covered these out with CDS a while back. They're not idiots.
A CDS needs someone on each side. Who would be the idiots to back the Greeks?
What is not being commented upon is the fact that the Eurozone countries and institutions have no prepared strategy for dealing with a Greek No vote. They are just reacting to events.
Yes, I think this is right. Even if they all wanted to help Greece avoid the consequences of the No vote, I don't think it's possible in the timescale available.
Clearly the key to this is the ECB, which will have to decide whether to pull the plug, leave the plug in place with the water steadily leaking out anyway, or drip a bit more into the bath whilst everyone figures out what to do next. My guess is they'll go for the middle option: no extra liquidity provided to Greek banks, but not immediately withdrawing the existing funding.
Off topic and of no use to anyone, for some reason last night I dreamed about the Labour leadership contest. Andy Burnham won, Jeremy Corbyn finished second, Yvette Cooper was third and Liz Kendall was fourth. Take that, psychic octopodes.
Off topic and of no use to anyone, for some reason last night I dreamed about the Labour leadership contest. Andy Burnham won, Jeremy Corbyn finished second, Yvette Cooper was third and Liz Kendall was fourth. Take that, psychic octopodes.
"There is currently a T-bill auction scheduled for 8th July, but it seems highly unlikely that this could go ahead. On 10th July, 2.25bn euros of T-bills need to be refinanced. It is at this point that the implications of ECB restrictions on ELA could come to bear and the Greek sovereign could default to its private sector creditors on Friday as a result."
You don't mean...you don't mean that private interests are playing a role?
It'll have little impact. The Greeks will almost certainly default, but the bondholders are professionals - they'll have covered these out with CDS a while back. They're not idiots.
A CDS needs someone on each side. Who would be the idiots to back the Greeks?
HSBC seem to think they are worth £5Bn of risk. I'm not particularly impressed with their exposure given they're my bank. They're big enough to easily withstand a default on the bonds, mind.
Comments
You may have been "cosseted" into a good university but you really need to get out and about more.
@afneil: France's Finance Minister Michel Sapin says the European Central Bank must not lower its level of emergency financing to Greek banks,
And now I must be off: a hospital appointment beckons.
Germany is not the country it was 70 years ago. The Germans will not be shooting Cretans, they will be buying up their properties at firesale prices.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3150061/It-outrageous-Melvyn-Bragg-savages-Ed-Miliband-taking-two-holidays-row-leaving-party-disaster-zone.html
The EU project would be brought into disrepute if they:
A) kick Greece out
Whether they'll do it quick enough, who knows.
There has to be moral hazard for the lenders, and those that profit from currency advantage whilst a nation, albeit a profgliate one that doesn't like paying taxes, is being sacrificed.
How nice.
Haha, you are one of the most loony on here, given this is a country that has lived through a fascist dictatorship well within living memory, as well as an apocalyptic nazi occupation and ensuing civil war a little further back, I think they'll survive.
I guess we cannot really hope to believe newspaper reports, like in the Times which says ''Yanis Varoufakis unexpectedly announced his resignation as Greek finance minister this morning''
''unexpectedly''
The necessary corollary of this must be that those who lent money to the Greek banks must bear some of the risk themselves. They chose to lend money to Pireas Bank, knowing that money was going - in turn - to be lent to the Greek state.
If we accept that those who lend money must bear some responsibility, then the next logical step must be a dramatic haircut of balances in the Greek banking system.
"a culture of aggressive determination which set British officers apart from their foreign contemporaries, and which in time gave them a steadily mounting psychological ascendancy. More and more in the course of the century, and for long afterwards, British officers encountered opponents who expected to be attacked, and more than half expected to be beaten, so that [the latter] went into action with an invisible disadvantage which no amount of personal courage or numerical strength could entirely make up for."
1) The Greek government has a clear mandate (in fact an obligation) to continue to press for better terms.
2) While this does not bind other governments or the IMF, they would be wise to have regard to this.
3) However, Greece continues to owe the money and cannot expect to set its own terms with its creditors.
4) All the hard thinking needs to be done on the EU side, since the Greek side's hands are tied by its own actions. And the choices for the EU are between bad and worse.
5) It was not a humiliation for the EU to argue that a No vote was a No to the Euro and to then see a decisive No vote. By intervening in the referendum campaign in this way, it now has permission to read a No vote in this way. This is politically essential if Greece is ultimately to be forced out of the Eurozone, as may very well happen. The Greeks can't say that the EU didn't warn them.
Given the choice between encouraging moral hazard and risking having to deal with Greeks rioting and starving in the streets, I'd prefer to risk a bit more moral hazard.
I don't think that the EU negotiators are that open-minded. I get the sense that they now want Mr Tsipras' blood.
Eject Greece. Riots and food shortages. Swan in with "humanitarian aid"
Look, EU good, Greek Government bad...
It's also worth remembering that the Spanish proportional system will work against Podemos. Spain has multimember constituencies based around provinces. In the countryside it may well run up 15% vote shares, but that will translate into no seats. In rural constituencies of 3 seats, it is highly likely that the PP will get 2 and PSOE 1. This means that Podemos is likely to get far fewer members than its vote share, while the PP (which is over-represented in the less populous rural constituencies) will be over-represented.
The consequence of all this, is that absent something major happening (like a complete cave to SYRIZA in Greece), Podemos is unlikely to take power in Spain. (And even in that incredibly unlikely scenario, it would be in coalition with the much more moderate PSOE.)
It's no wonder the loony toon kipperati are up there with them.
Yes there should be a haircut in the Greek banking system but as I think the only thing left there (unless you have no common sense and haven't watched the news) is working capital I don't know what good that haircut will really do...
Of course, it's hard to make payroll when your bank balance has just been cut in half.
But I think you're mistaken in expecting an EU hard line. The EU only does fudges. They are past masters at fudges, and it's arguably the only way you can get anything done with 28 mostly sovereign countries. Felix is right: "we're gonna get a lot of fudge but essentially the Greeks are gonna be shafted amidst a cloud of candy floss". We can expect a long period of difficult Greeek austerity (whic hTsipras will blame on foreigners) without a flash-bang denounement.
Incidentally, Varoufakis's resignation was demanded internally as well by centrist pro-No people, and will I think have been pre-scripted.
The irony of someone who can post the paranoid nonsense below having the lack of self awareness to say others are so lost in their own bias and hatred they can't see things clearly
SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 2,033
July 1
HELP PLEASE
Just as a matter of interest for now, Does anyone recall the BBC saying that in Brown's era if Brown said XYZ then they reported it as the Chancellor/PM CLAIMED rather than said.
I have noted of late that the BBC have started to use the CLAIM word (recently re G Osborne and the better than expected GDP figures) rather than report what was said .... eg the Chancellor claimed rather than the Chancellor said..
Slight change but it conveys a completely different meaning.
If Corbyn got second, would that mean Burnham would have some pressure to give him a role in the Shadow Cabinet? Shadow Minister for Paperclips?
Its an interesting change in terminology that's was worth highlighting.
Most of the Euro's perpetual crisis is down to the presence of the Greeks.
You've been through every news item from the BBC while Brown and Osborne were chancellor and compared the findings then. What were the results?
Or are you just seeing things the way the paranoia guides you?
The question is whether they will retain an each way bet on regime change by continuing the financial blockade of Greece's banks. If they do then the Greeks' next move is clearly to issue a scrip/IOU parallel currency, which takes us into new territory...
"There is currently a T-bill auction scheduled for 8th July, but it
seems highly unlikely that this could go ahead. On 10th July, 2.25bn euros of T-bills
need to be refinanced. It is at this point that the implications of ECB restrictions on
ELA could come to bear and the Greek sovereign could default to its private sector
creditors on Friday as a result."
"Moody's estimates that domestic private-sector deposits have declined by around €44 billion since the end of last November to approximately €120 billion. Outflows in the last two weeks alone were in excess of €8 billion.
In response to the persistent decline in deposits, the ECB had in recent weeks allowed the Bank of Greece to gradually increase the amount of ELA provided to the Greek banking sector. However, the ECB's decision on 28 June to freeze the ELA limit at around €89 billion heightens liquidity risk and leaves the banks without an alternative funding source. Moody's estimates that the Greek banking system is now more reliant on funding from the Eurosystem, either in the form of ELA or regular funding, than on domestic private-sector customer deposits."
Either way, bad news for depositors. Particularly as the Greek deposit insurance fund only stands at around E3bn (shortly to be raided as well, I'll bet...).
Provided a decent-sized grid is maintained, losing the political tosh of Red Bull would not be a bad thing.
Discuss the points at hand rather than your own f**kwitted bias and we might get somewhere.
Well, I wasn't expecting such a large 'No' - astounding.
As to ECB cash, that's the point of supplying the cash (liquidity) isn't it?
Just as a matter of interest for now, Does anyone recall the BBC saying that in Brown's era if Brown said XYZ then they reported it as the Chancellor/PM CLAIMED rather than said.'
And
For starters, and contrary to what's being said in the British press, the euro isn't the issue. Look, this is about bankers holding a population to ransom for the same reason dogs licks their town halls - because they can, Because they've got the power to do so.
And guess which is the bankiest country in Europe - that's right. That one where the entire economy, bar arms exports, is based around a square mile.
The media are also writing as if they are the headmaster and those naughty naughty pupils have got their punishment coming to them as if it was an objectively necessary consequence of their actions, or as if they were single mothers on a council estate wanting the life of Riley. Yes folks, guess which party is in the government in Britain.
Meanwhile not a single newspaper is mentioning the Group of London, the central body of private banks which sets policy for lending to states. I would have thought they'd be a player, wouldn't you?
What's going to happen is that the banks, and the private equity interests that control many of them, are going to try to impose starvation on Greece. Several newspapers have noticed that the banks control the money supply and therefore can block food imports. The last thing they want is the moneylenders' sovereign right to claim their repayments, regardless of whether people lose their homes or starve, to start to be challenged by large populations in other European countries. They don't want Europe to continue to wake up. That's why they are pushing the propaganda line that Greece is somehow against Europe.
It's starvation or we sort the moneylenders out.
All hail Tsipras and Syriza - a genuinely popular government and a European first: a government that has stood up to the banks and done it in public.
Just remember, Ferrari - and now McLaren - sell road cars to fund their racing addiction. Mercedes are in F1 to sell their road cars.
Today';s Stage Three finishing on the Mur du Hoy is a great opportunity for Peter Sagan who can still be had at 33/1 with BetFred.
Each Way advised.
The current engines were agreed by all manufacturers. Red Bull only had a problem with it when the Renault turned out to be relatively slow.
Edited extra bit: all teams are political, to a lesser or greater extent, but Red Bull seem the worst in that regard, I think.
#TEAMZAC
Cheers.
"The next meeting is the most important"
"Rumors that @tsipras_eu may reshuffle cabinet as early as tonite, putting @g_stathakis in place of @yanisvaroufakis irrespective of outcome."
There will always be disparities in wealth but economic & political systems that are only perceived to deliver the goods for the few will ultimately be replaced. The current economic orthodoxy (markets are sacrosanct) has only been dominant for 30 years, a pin prick in historical terms.
A little balance is required - although I would benefit greatly from the proposed new Inheritance tax changes they are just wrong at time when many less well off people are having their standards cut further and we are supposedly trying to reduce our deficit. It is political hubris.
When people no longer have a stake they will not necessarily vote rationally as we saw in Greece last night and whoever it was that was gloating that the Germans would now be able to buy second homes in Greece at knock down prices all I would say is good luck to the German family that goes there on holiday in those circumstances because they will need it!
If the EU does now make concessions to Greece, then Tspiras will be perceived as a hero and the anti-austerity parties all over Europe will surge. Interesting times. I will now retire & put my tin hat on as this blog has, regrettably, become even more politically unbalanced since May.
With that in mind the IMF/Euro Group has to decide if they want some of the money back and come to a negotiated settlement with Greece about debt forgiveness, or none of the money back by 'playing hardball'. If it was just down to economics they'd do the former, but politics, especially within Germany seems to be making them do the latter, which is madness.
It's a stock not a flow.
Valverde obviously starts as favourite given his Fleche Wallone wins (5-2 I'm not touching though), but Chris put a touch of time into Contador yesterday at the end (3 seconds) - I think he's in great shape and he's better at these short uphills than say Quintana.
50-1 is very comparable with the lay price on Betfair and beats the "Top 3" price on the place part by a considerable margin for Chris Froome.
Albasini at 16s could be worth a look, I'd avoid/consider laying Dan Martin at ~ 7s, and Purito at ~ 6s though.
Sagan at 33s seems fair enough too (It's suit him more if the finish was shortly AFTER Mur not on it though
Clearly the key to this is the ECB, which will have to decide whether to pull the plug, leave the plug in place with the water steadily leaking out anyway, or drip a bit more into the bath whilst everyone figures out what to do next. My guess is they'll go for the middle option: no extra liquidity provided to Greek banks, but not immediately withdrawing the existing funding.