That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.
*knits by guillotine*
My impression is that the CDU government is no longer prepared to work with Tsipras and his colleagues but would be prepared to work with someone else. That will need a carrot later as well as a stick now.
The Germans have selective memories. They forget that in 1953 Greece was one of hhe creditor nations that agreed a 50% reduction in German debt along with incredibly generous repayment options on the remaining debt.
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.
It doesn't matter how badly Greece has behaved, right now Greece is a spinning hand grenade in the corner of a crowded room - the eurozone - and it is about to go off.
Someone *could* pick it up and throw it out of the window, but they might kill themselves, and everyone in the room, and they might not even succeed, and if they do succeed they might kill people outside
= ejection from the eurozone
The alternative is to smother it with something. Jump on it with a blanket. Absorb the pain. Horrible for whoever does it. But arguably better than the alternative.
= debt write off
Should be no more good money thrown after bad. They have borrowed to the hilt , refuse to mend their ways and want to just keep on borrowing. Time to let them fund themselves using their own means.
I'd have thought a wanabee Braveheart like yourself would have supported the Greek man in the street?
On a different point, I've been wondering about shy Tories. The picture in mind of such a voter is a lower middle/working class voter who is inclined to agree with the stuff Labour say about inequality, but when it comes to it they have to put their family first and that means voting for who they trust with the economy. But I wonder if there is a good chunk of quite well off people who generally wouldn't vote Tory because they are trendy lefties and it doesn't matter who is in power as it wouldn't affect them. But this time, when faced with Ed propped up by the SNP they thought "no ******* way".
Except that thanks to WoS/ST polling on this exact issue, it appears that while there were people who were scared by this (enough to provide the noticable "we see this on the doorsteps" they were not significantly larger than those who wanted Queen Nicola after her performances in the debates.
Robert Peston saying bankers now believe the best move for Greece is to leave the Euro and return to the Drachma
If I were Greek that outcome would tip me into suicidality.
It would mean the last four years of hideous austerity were for nothing, the drop of 26% of GDP was for NOTHING.
They could have exited the euro in 2011, taken the anticipated 30% fall in GDP, and by now they would be vigorously growing again.
As it is, if they exit now they will take a second sucker punch. And the agony of 2011-2015 will be rendered pointless.
But, this is for the best for them. The Euro was holding them down. They may have a rough 18 - 24 months and then grow. We can always divert a billion of our aid budget for basics for them.
Latvia is growing quickly, in the euro. The euro isn't holding Sweden down, and they manufactured a recession all on their own with abysmal interest rate hikes. Devaluation will not solve the problem of how to earn foreign currency; if you devalue just to reduce your tourism income per visitor in international terms, well, you need a lot more tourists to buy the same amount of oil or penicillin.
Yes but as with any far left Govt, they need to face the financial realities of running an economy on the magic money tree principles. Latvia left socialism. Greece did not.
H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.
He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.
And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....
It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).
Cat~pigeons.
Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.
If this result is confirmed, we find out a lot more about what the EU really is and isn't. All this talk of solidarity and togetherness we have heard for years is going to be put to the test. Will the EU let Greece go under and leave the Greek people in total penury? If it does, who wants to be a part of such an institution? Not me. The next few weeks and months could have a profound affect on our referendum. If you are on the left, why would you vote to stay in if the EU lets Greece go to the wall?
That's a really insightful point. Up until now the main opposition to the EU (in this country at least) has been from those on the right of the political spectrum.
If Greece is hung out to dry by the unelected bureaucrats in the coming weeks and months, will there be a left wing resurgence calling for the UK to leave the EU?
Will we get to see Jeremy Corbyn and Daniel Hannan sharing a stage for the No campaign..?
Nigel Farage in a recent speech mentioned about the left staying to realise and wake up to the failed euracracy project.
The previous Euro referendum had Tony Benn and Enoch Powell arguing on the same side. Both great orators.
Plenty of businessmen are ready to campaign on the no side whatever the CBI says. The IoD are notably against in the main. And Digby Jones has said he'll campaign for a no vote if the results of the renegotiation ate unsatisfactory.
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.
*knits by guillotine*
My impression is that the CDU government is no longer prepared to work with Tsipras and his colleagues but would be prepared to work with someone else. That will need a carrot later as well as a stick now.
The Germans have selective memories. They forget that in 1953 Greece was one of hhe creditor nations that agreed a 50% reduction in German debt along with incredibly generous repayment options on the remaining debt.
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.
It doesn't matter how badly Greece has behaved, right now Greece is a spinning hand grenade in the corner of a crowded room - the eurozone - and it is about to go off.
Someone *could* pick it up and throw it out of the window, but they might kill themselves, and everyone in the room, and they might not even succeed, and if they do succeed they might kill people outside
= ejection from the eurozone
The alternative is to smother it with something. Jump on it with a blanket. Absorb the pain. Horrible for whoever does it. But arguably better than the alternative.
= debt write off
Should be no more good money thrown after bad. They have borrowed to the hilt , refuse to mend their ways and want to just keep on borrowing. Time to let them fund themselves using their own means.
The ECB are finding out about Greshams law the hard way. ...
You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.
Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.
Of course they're popular.
They're popular because the Greeks tried the other way and it did not work. When you leave a people hopeless this is what you get if you do not take their votes away. The whole thing is a massive indictment not of Greek voters but of the elites who created the situation in the first place and who are completely shielded from its consequences.
The sad thing is that it was beginning to work. Growth had, just, returned to Greece before January's election.
I disagree that you can't blame the Greek voters. In any democracy, ultimate responsibility has to lie with the electorate otherwise they cannot claim to have ultimate sovereignty (and tax-dodging was so endemic that it too has to be laid at the level of the population at large). That said, the political and business elites must accept their share of the blame too.
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.
*knits by guillotine*
My impression is that the CDU government is no longer prepared to work with Tsipras and his colleagues but would be prepared to work with someone else. That will need a carrot later as well as a stick now.
The Germans have selective memories. They forget that in 1953 Greece was one of hhe creditor nations that agreed a 50% reduction in German debt along with incredibly generous repayment options on the remaining debt.
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.
It doesn't matter how badly Greece has behaved, right now Greece is a spinning hand grenade in the corner of a crowded room - the eurozone - and it is about to go off.
Someone *could* pick it up and throw it out of the window, but they might kill themselves, and everyone in the room, and they might not even succeed, and if they do succeed they might kill people outside
= ejection from the eurozone
The alternative is to smother it with something. Jump on it with a blanket. Absorb the pain. Horrible for whoever does it. But arguably better than the alternative.
= debt write off
Should be no more good money thrown after bad. They have borrowed to the hilt , refuse to mend their ways and want to just keep on borrowing. Time to let them fund themselves using their own means.
Seems fair to me. It would appear the biggest stumbling block for some* is who is saying that to Greece, not what they are saying.
H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.
He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.
And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....
It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).
Cat~pigeons.
Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.
If this result is confirmed, we find out a lot more about what the EU really is and isn't. All this talk of solidarity and togetherness we have heard for years is going to be put to the test. Will the EU let Greece go under and leave the Greek people in total penury? If it does, who wants to be a part of such an institution? Not me. The next few weeks and months could have a profound affect on our referendum. If you are on the left, why would you vote to stay in if the EU lets Greece go to the wall?
That's a really insightful point. Up until now the main opposition to the EU (in this country at least) has been from those on the right of the political spectrum.
If Greece is hung out to dry by the unelected bureaucrats in the coming weeks and months, will there be a left wing resurgence calling for the UK to leave the EU?
Will we get to see Jeremy Corbyn and Daniel Hannan sharing a stage for the No campaign..?
As Enoch said, "All sorts and conditions of men can resent the destruction of their country's independence."
Euclid Tsakalotos, the government's chief negotiator said talks could restart as early as Sunday evening.
First indications were that any joint European political response may take a couple of days. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande will meet in Paris on Monday afternoon. The European Commission, the EU executive, meets in Strasbourg on Tuesday and will report to the European Parliament on the situation.
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.
*knits by guillotine*
My impression is that the CDU government is no longer prepared to work with Tsipras and his colleagues but would be prepared to work with someone else. That will need a carrot later as well as a stick now.
The Germans have selective memories. They forget that in 1953 Greece was one of hhe creditor nations that agreed a 50% reduction in German debt along with incredibly generous repayment options on the remaining debt.
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.
It doesn't matter how badly Greece has behaved, right now Greece is a spinning hand grenade in the corner of a crowded room - the eurozone - and it is about to go off.
Someone *could* pick it up and throw it out of the window, but they might kill themselves, and everyone in the room, and they might not even succeed, and if they do succeed they might kill people outside
= ejection from the eurozone
The alternative is to smother it with something. Jump on it with a blanket. Absorb the pain. Horrible for whoever does it. But arguably better than the alternative.
= debt write off
Should be no more good money thrown after bad. They have borrowed to the hilt , refuse to mend their ways and want to just keep on borrowing. Time to let them fund themselves using their own means.
I'd have thought a wanabee Braveheart like yourself would have supported the Greek man in the street?
I support people standing on their own efforts, not spongers continuously wanting other people to fund them. That applies in any country including Scotland.
Robert Peston saying bankers now believe the best move for Greece is to leave the Euro and return to the Drachma
If I were Greek that outcome would tip me into suicidality.
It would mean the last four years of hideous austerity were for nothing, the drop of 26% of GDP was for NOTHING.
They could have exited the euro in 2011, taken the anticipated 30% fall in GDP, and by now they would be vigorously growing again.
As it is, if they exit now they will take a second sucker punch. And the agony of 2011-2015 will be rendered pointless.
But, this is for the best for them. The Euro was holding them down. They may have a rough 18 - 24 months and then grow. We can always divert a billion of our aid budget for basics for them.
Latvia is growing quickly, in the euro. The euro isn't holding Sweden down, and they manufactured a recession all on their own with abysmal interest rate hikes. Devaluation will not solve the problem of how to earn foreign currency; if you devalue just to reduce your tourism income per visitor in international terms, well, you need a lot more tourists to buy the same amount of oil or penicillin.
Greece doesn't have a problem with earning foreign currency. Its revenue from exports and tourism greatly exceeds its cost of imports.
It doesn't need to devalue to get its economy growing. It needs to stimulate domestic demand and investment, increase employment and collect the tax. The Eurocrats and IMF are insisting on Greece reducing demand which is crazy. It could stimulate demand by printing and using its own currency. But neither the Greeks nor the Eurocrats want Greece to leave the euro.
I suspect we will end up with a compromise of semi-austerity, better tax collection and radical debt restructuring followed by a slow climb out of recession.
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.
*knits by guillotine*
My impression is that the CDU government is no longer prepared to work with Tsipras and his colleagues but would be prepared to work with someone else. That will need a carrot later as well as a stick now.
The Germans have selective memories. They forget that in 1953 Greece was one of hhe creditor nations that agreed a 50% reduction in German debt along with incredibly generous repayment options on the remaining debt.
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.
It doesn't matter how badly Greece has behaved, right now Greece is a spinning hand grenade in the corner of a crowded room - the eurozone - and it is about to go off.
Someone *could* pick it up and throw it out of the window, but they might kill themselves, and everyone in the room, and they might not even succeed, and if they do succeed they might kill people outside
= ejection from the eurozone
The alternative is to smother it with something. Jump on it with a blanket. Absorb the pain. Horrible for whoever does it. But arguably better than the alternative.
= debt write off
Should be no more good money thrown after bad. They have borrowed to the hilt , refuse to mend their ways and want to just keep on borrowing. Time to let them fund themselves using their own means.
The ECB are finding out about Greshams law the hard way. ...
Greshams law is that debased money drives out good from ciculation. This means that the Euro is the good money, and the Drachma or IOU is the bad money.
What nonsence. Salmond didn't need anyones permission to use sterling as the hapless Darling admitted in second debate. His only mistake was not to explicitly say to leave the RUK with the Bank of England, sterling and £1.5 trillion worth of debt. It would have been much the best outcome for Scotland.
This should be offered in 2018, Sterling just isn't worth the effort of trying to counter the Loyalist lies. Best outcome is Sterlingisation for up to 5 years while a new currency is set up. A currency which would be rock hard in a way Sterling once was but can never be again.
Robert Peston saying bankers now believe the best move for Greece is to leave the Euro and return to the Drachma
If I were Greek that outcome would tip me into suicidality.
It would mean the last four years of hideous austerity were for nothing, the drop of 26% of GDP was for NOTHING.
They could have exited the euro in 2011, taken the anticipated 30% fall in GDP, and by now they would be vigorously growing again.
As it is, if they exit now they will take a second sucker punch. And the agony of 2011-2015 will be rendered pointless.
But, this is for the best for them. The Euro was holding them down. They may have a rough 18 - 24 months and then grow. We can always divert a billion of our aid budget for basics for them.
Latvia is growing quickly, in the euro. The euro isn't holding Sweden down, and they manufactured a recession all on their own with abysmal interest rate hikes. Devaluation will not solve the problem of how to earn foreign currency; if you devalue just to reduce your tourism income per visitor in international terms, well, you need a lot more tourists to buy the same amount of oil or penicillin.
Sweden isn't in the Euro.
But ignoring that... we have had fixed currency regimes in the past. The last global fixed currency scheme was the Gold Standard, which was in existence from about 1850 to 1970 (with about 15 years in abeyance prior to WW2).
But fixed currency regimes are hard. They mean you have to adjust to changes in external demand by adjusting the costs of your economy merely by allowing the price of your currency to change. Of course, they are not without their advantages: savers feel much happier knowing the government cannot devalue their savings, and therefore business investment levels tend to be higher.
But they also mean that mistakes are hard to "sweep away". Erasing the horrendous errors that Britain made in the 1970s was a whole lot easier when the currency could depreciate away issues.
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.
*knits by guillotine*
My impression is that the CDU government is no longer prepared to work with Tsipras and his colleagues but would be prepared to work with someone else. That will need a carrot later as well as a stick now.
The Germans have selective memories. They forget that in 1953 Greece was one of hhe creditor nations that agreed a 50% reduction in German debt along with incredibly generous repayment options on the remaining debt.
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.
It doesn't matter how badly Greece has behaved, right now Greece is a spinning hand grenade in the corner of a crowded room - the eurozone - and it is about to go off.
Someone *could* pick it up and throw it out of the window, but they might kill themselves, and everyone in the room, and they might not even succeed, and if they do succeed they might kill people outside
= ejection from the eurozone
The alternative is to smother it with something. Jump on it with a blanket. Absorb the pain. Horrible for whoever does it. But arguably better than the alternative.
= debt write off
Should be no more good money thrown after bad. They have borrowed to the hilt , refuse to mend their ways and want to just keep on borrowing. Time to let them fund themselves using their own means.
The ECB are finding out about Greshams law the hard way. ...
Greshams law is that debased money drives out good from ciculation. This means that the Euro is the good money, and the Drachma or IOU is the bad money.
I'm afraid for you in this case that it is the other way around!
Greece’s interior ministry has released an official projection, showing that the no side is set to win by 61%. - That is a landslide result for the government, which had urged people to reject the bailout proposals made by lenders.
Don’t think the investors were expecting such a decisive NO in this referendum – no doubt followed by lots of turbulence in tomorrow’s financial markets.
On a different point, I've been wondering about shy Tories. The picture in mind of such a voter is a lower middle/working class voter who is inclined to agree with the stuff Labour say about inequality, but when it comes to it they have to put their family first and that means voting for who they trust with the economy. But I wonder if there is a good chunk of quite well off people who generally wouldn't vote Tory because they are trendy lefties and it doesn't matter who is in power as it wouldn't affect them. But this time, when faced with Ed propped up by the SNP they thought "no ******* way".
It seems that the "Fear of the SNP won the election for the Tories" is a myth that needs put to bed.
While it was definitely a factor, it has seemed a bit simplistic to believe that it principally won things, all by itself.
Does anyone know if we have a demographic profile of how the votes are being counted?
Are the initial counts representative of the country as a whole, or are they counting votes in large cities and small islands faster than votes in rural areas, which could lead to a swing back towards YES as the count progresses..?
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.
*knits by guillotine*
My impression is that the CDU government is no longer prepared to work with Tsipras and his colleagues but would be prepared to work with someone else. That will need a carrot later as well as a stick now.
The Germans have selective memories. They forget that in 1953 Greece was one of hhe creditor nations that agreed a 50% reduction in German debt along with incredibly generous repayment options on the remaining debt.
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.
It doesn't matter how badly Greece has behaved, right now Greece is a spinning hand grenade in the corner of a crowded room - the eurozone - and it is about to go off.
Someone *could* pick it up and throw it out of the window, but they might kill themselves, and everyone in the room, and they might not even succeed, and if they do succeed they might kill people outside
= ejection from the eurozone
The alternative is to smother it with something. Jump on it with a blanket. Absorb the pain. Horrible for whoever does it. But arguably better than the alternative.
= debt write off
Should be no more good money thrown after bad. They have borrowed to the hilt , refuse to mend their ways and want to just keep on borrowing. Time to let them fund themselves using their own means.
The ECB are finding out about Greshams law the hard way. ...
Greshams law is that debased money drives out good from ciculation. This means that the Euro is the good money, and the Drachma or IOU is the bad money.
I'm afraid for you in this case that it is the other way around!
The people outside the Banks last week were desperate to get their hands on Euro's not Drachma, and it will be even more so tommorow.
Vaguely on topic, were the Greek exit polls worse than the British ones? I would have voted OXI if it had come to it, as the plan would have caused great pain without curing the patient, but what an awful 2 options to be presented with.
2010 and 2015 UK Exit polls were actually rather accurate, especially 2010.
They weren't exit polls in Greece, they were last-minute telephone polls.
Vaguely on topic, were the Greek exit polls worse than the British ones? I would have voted OXI if it had come to it, as the plan would have caused great pain without curing the patient, but what an awful 2 options to be presented with.
2010 and 2015 UK Exit polls were actually rather accurate, especially 2010.
The Greek polls weren't exit polls but phone polls conducted on the day. The best comparison with the UK is the election eve opinion polls, which were a bit rubbish (though seemingly not quite as rubbish as the Greek ones).
That said, the pollsters didn't have long to establish an accurate methodology for weighting and so on in the referendum.
H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.
He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.
And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....
It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).
Cat~pigeons.
Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.
If this result is confirmed, we find out a lot more about what the EU really is and isn't. All this talk of solidarity and togetherness we have heard for years is going to be put to the test. Will the EU let Greece go under and leave the Greek people in total penury? If it does, who wants to be a part of such an institution? Not me. The next few weeks and months could have a profound affect on our referendum. If you are on the left, why would you vote to stay in if the EU lets Greece go to the wall?
That's a really insightful point. Up until now the main opposition to the EU (in this country at least) has been from those on the right of the political spectrum.
If Greece is hung out to dry by the unelected bureaucrats in the coming weeks and months, will there be a left wing resurgence calling for the UK to leave the EU?
Will we get to see Jeremy Corbyn and Daniel Hannan sharing a stage for the No campaign..?
As Enoch said, "All sorts and conditions of men can resent the destruction of their country's independence."
Benn and Powell shared an anti EU platform in 1975, Jenkins and Heath a pro EU one. It is equally likely we could see Corbyn and Hannan and Farage on the No side, Cameron, Blair, Sturgeon and Burnham on the Yes side
The population of Greece is going to drop rather heavily in the next few months IMO as the well-educated relocate to northern Europe and elsewhere.
I've been seeing an increase in CVs from Greece for a while now. We took one on last month - a developer called Mikhail and paid towards his family relocation. That probably wasn't necessary but worth doing. He's damn good at his job and he seems to be loving the life at the other end of the Med.
I'd put money on them settling permanently - or at least not going back to Greece any time soon. Once they are used to the salary they won't be able to go that far backwards.
Robert Peston saying bankers now believe the best move for Greece is to leave the Euro and return to the Drachma
If I were Greek that outcome would tip me into suicidality.
It would mean the last four years of hideous austerity were for nothing, the drop of 26% of GDP was for NOTHING.
They could have exited the euro in 2011, taken the anticipated 30% fall in GDP, and by now they would be vigorously growing again.
As it is, if they exit now they will take a second sucker punch. And the agony of 2011-2015 will be rendered pointless.
But, this is for the best for them. The Euro was holding them down. They may have a rough 18 - 24 months and then grow. We can always divert a billion of our aid budget for basics for them.
Latvia is growing quickly, in the euro. The euro isn't holding Sweden down, and they manufactured a recession all on their own with abysmal interest rate hikes. Devaluation will not solve the problem of how to earn foreign currency; if you devalue just to reduce your tourism income per visitor in international terms, well, you need a lot more tourists to buy the same amount of oil or penicillin.
Sweden isn't in the Euro.
But ignoring that... we have had fixed currency regimes in the past. The last global fixed currency scheme was the Gold Standard, which was in existence from about 1850 to 1970 (with about 15 years in abeyance prior to WW2).
But fixed currency regimes are hard. They mean you have to adjust to changes in external demand by adjusting the costs of your economy merely by allowing the price of your currency to change. Of course, they are not without their advantages: savers feel much happier knowing the government cannot devalue their savings, and therefore business investment levels tend to be higher.
But they also mean that mistakes are hard to "sweep away". Erasing the horrendous errors that Britain made in the 1970s was a whole lot easier when the currency could depreciate away issues.
It's fine if you trust your government not to recklessly depreciate as a budget incontinence measure.
This is why the most supportive euro countries were Greece, Italy, and so on.
Countries also make mistakes the other way. Sweden raised interest rates far too high, and practically manufactured a recession. They didn't need the euro to over-value the benefits of a hard currency regime.
Vaguely on topic, were the Greek exit polls worse than the British ones? I would have voted OXI if it had come to it, as the plan would have caused great pain without curing the patient, but what an awful 2 options to be presented with.
2010 and 2015 UK Exit polls were actually rather accurate, especially 2010.
There seems lots of late swings at the moment from what initially looked a neck and neck race. This year the same trend has been seen in Israel, the UK and now Greece
Vaguely on topic, were the Greek exit polls worse than the British ones? I would have voted OXI if it had come to it, as the plan would have caused great pain without curing the patient, but what an awful 2 options to be presented with.
2010 and 2015 UK Exit polls were actually rather accurate, especially 2010.
The Greek polls weren't exit polls but phone polls conducted on the day. The best comparison with the UK is the election eve opinion polls, which were a bit rubbish (though seemingly not quite as rubbish as the Greek ones).
That said, the pollsters didn't have long to establish an accurate methodology for weighting and so on in the referendum.
I am not sure that time helped with weighting much here!, or in Scotland on the indyref for that matter. A lesson to watch for our own euro-ref.
Look: the Euro was wrong for Greece, they never should have joined, and they should have left either in 2011 or at the start of this year.
But ignoring that: why should the people to whom Greece owes money change their mind based on the referendum?
If I am working for a pension fund in Sydney, and I've lent Greece money, why should I not still demand full repayment.
One person's borrowing is another person's saving. When we talk of wiping out Greece's debts, let's be honest and remember we're talking about wiping out somebody else's retirement savings.
Does anyone know if we have a demographic profile of how the votes are being counted?
Are the initial counts representative of the country as a whole, or are they counting votes in large cities and small islands faster than votes in rural areas, which could lead to a swing back towards YES as the count progresses..?
Direct interference in a sovereign nations democratic process by the EU. They are now not even doing this discreetly . They want regime change because they don't like the government that was voted into power. This was recorded Thursday but broadcast today on the day of the referendum !
Reuters
The head of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, told German radio that Greece would have to introduce another currency if the “no” vote wins in Sunday's referendum on an aid-for-reforms deal.
....
"The moment someone introduces a new currency, they exit the euro zone. Those are the elements that give me some hope that the people will not vote ‘no’ today.”
His comments are some of the clearest made by a top EU official.
That's quite disgraceful! The Greek govt are wrong about almost everything, but the one thing they have right is that there's no mechanism for them to be kicked out of the Euro.
This sort of statement by EU officials doesn't bode well for the British referendum either, although the consequences for a British exit are very different to those in Greece.
Sounds more like a statement of the bleeding obvious to me! If the Greek banks are without liquidity in Euros then they will have to use something else.
Of course they will that's not the point.the point is the arrogant interference by an unelected official
In what way is he "unelected"?
Take a different approach
I don't want him.... How do I vote him out? Where do I cast my vote directly against him. I can't ....
That may be acceptable for the EU but That's makes him unelected in my book
How do you vote Bercow out as Speaker?
Isn't his role specifically not to take sides in political debate, as the referee rather than advancing the point of any one side?
He is also an MP, he can be voted out in the usual manner at an election.
Indeed - someone else suggested Cameron, which is a better parallel. Schultz is a German MEP, who has been elected by the left-wing group of MEPs to be their candidate for President. That's all he is - President of the EU Parliament (hence my Speaker parallel) not some spokesman for the European demos.
Among Schultz favourite books are all the books of Eric Hobsbawm. That well known British communist.
Seems to have had something in common with red Ed Miliband.
On a different point, I've been wondering about shy Tories. The picture in mind of such a voter is a lower middle/working class voter who is inclined to agree with the stuff Labour say about inequality, but when it comes to it they have to put their family first and that means voting for who they trust with the economy. But I wonder if there is a good chunk of quite well off people who generally wouldn't vote Tory because they are trendy lefties and it doesn't matter who is in power as it wouldn't affect them. But this time, when faced with Ed propped up by the SNP they thought "no ******* way".
It seems that the "Fear of the SNP won the election for the Tories" is a myth that needs put to bed.
While it was definitely a factor, it has seemed a bit simplistic to believe that it principally won things, all by itself.
It will be interesting to see the underlying numbers, IIRC this polled asked 2010 voting intention as well as 2015.
If it turns out that the bulk of the 17% were Tories and the bulk of the 14% were Labour, then Labour's decision to say "No Deal With the SNP" will actually have cost them votes and potentially offering a formal arrangement before the vote could have prevented the Tory Majority.
What nonsence. Salmond didn't need anyones permission to use sterling as the hapless Darling admitted in second debate. His only mistake was not to explicitly say to leave the RUK with the Bank of England, sterling and £1.5 trillion worth of debt. It would have been much the best outcome for Scotland.
This should be offered in 2018, Sterling just isn't worth the effort of trying to counter the Loyalist lies. Best outcome is Sterlingisation for up to 5 years while a new currency is set up. A currency which would be rock hard in a way Sterling once was but can never be again.
I'm clearly slow. Could you explain the meaning behind the final sentence.
Robert Peston saying bankers now believe the best move for Greece is to leave the Euro and return to the Drachma
If I were Greek that outcome would tip me into suicidality.
It would mean the last four years of hideous austerity were for nothing, the drop of 26% of GDP was for NOTHING.
They could have exited the euro in 2011, taken the anticipated 30% fall in GDP, and by now they would be vigorously growing again.
As it is, if they exit now they will take a second sucker punch. And the agony of 2011-2015 will be rendered pointless.
But, this is for the best for them. The Euro was holding them down. They may have a rough 18 - 24 months and then grow. We can always divert a billion of our aid budget for basics for them.
Latvia is growing quickly, in the euro. The euro isn't holding Sweden down, and they manufactured a recession all on their own with abysmal interest rate hikes. Devaluation will not solve the problem of how to earn foreign currency; if you devalue just to reduce your tourism income per visitor in international terms, well, you need a lot more tourists to buy the same amount of oil or penicillin.
Greece doesn't have a problem with earning foreign currency. Its revenue from exports and tourism greatly exceeds its cost of imports.
It doesn't need to devalue to get its economy growing. It needs to stimulate domestic demand and investment, increase employment and collect the tax. The Eurocrats and IMF are insisting on Greece reducing demand which is crazy. It could stimulate demand by printing and using its own currency. But neither the Greeks nor the Eurocrats want Greece to leave the euro.
I suspect we will end up with a compromise of semi-austerity, better tax collection and radical debt restructuring followed by a slow climb out of recession.
Greece has a large, negative trade balance. This is not unconnected to its massive debt.
Greece’s interior ministry has released an official projection, showing that the no side is set to win by 61%. - That is a landslide result for the government, which had urged people to reject the bailout proposals made by lenders.
Don’t think the investors were expecting such a decisive NO in this referendum – no doubt followed by lots of turbulence in tomorrow’s financial markets.
NO is currently 61.03%
I misread that to mean no side would win by 61%, neither YES nor NO.
On a different point, I've been wondering about shy Tories. The picture in mind of such a voter is a lower middle/working class voter who is inclined to agree with the stuff Labour say about inequality, but when it comes to it they have to put their family first and that means voting for who they trust with the economy. But I wonder if there is a good chunk of quite well off people who generally wouldn't vote Tory because they are trendy lefties and it doesn't matter who is in power as it wouldn't affect them. But this time, when faced with Ed propped up by the SNP they thought "no ******* way".
It seems that the "Fear of the SNP won the election for the Tories" is a myth that needs put to bed.
While it was definitely a factor, it has seemed a bit simplistic to believe that it principally won things, all by itself.
The Labour vote actually increased by a greater % than the Tory vote did. Not much, to be fair, but it happened.
Please do remember that default doesn't make your debts go away. Just because you are no longer making payments doesn't mean the money is not accruing.
On a different point, I've been wondering about shy Tories. The picture in mind of such a voter is a lower middle/working class voter who is inclined to agree with the stuff Labour say about inequality, but when it comes to it they have to put their family first and that means voting for who they trust with the economy. But I wonder if there is a good chunk of quite well off people who generally wouldn't vote Tory because they are trendy lefties and it doesn't matter who is in power as it wouldn't affect them. But this time, when faced with Ed propped up by the SNP they thought "no ******* way".
It seems that the "Fear of the SNP won the election for the Tories" is a myth that needs put to bed.
While it was definitely a factor, it has seemed a bit simplistic to believe that it principally won things, all by itself.
The Labour vote actually increased by a greater % than the Tory vote did. Not much, to be fair, but it happened.
And Labour won more seats off the Tories than vice versa.
Please do remember that default doesn't make your debts go away. Just because you are no longer making payments doesn't mean the money is not accruing.
True but a debt restructuring and or writedown is a necessary condition to get Greece back on the road to recovery along side a much more realistic exchange rate under a new Drachma.
Robert Peston saying bankers now believe the best move for Greece is to leave the Euro and return to the Drachma
If I were Greek that outcome would tip me into suicidality.
It would mean the last four years of hideous austerity were for nothing, the drop of 26% of GDP was for NOTHING.
They could have exited the euro in 2011, taken the anticipated 30% fall in GDP, and by now they would be vigorously growing again.
As it is, if they exit now they will take a second sucker punch. And the agony of 2011-2015 will be rendered pointless.
But, this is for the best for them. The Euro was holding them down. They may have a rough 18 - 24 months and then grow. We can always divert a billion of our aid budget for basics for them.
Latvia is growing quickly, in the euro. The euro isn't holding Sweden down, and they manufactured a recession all on their own with abysmal interest rate hikes. Devaluation will not solve the problem of how to earn foreign currency; if you devalue just to reduce your tourism income per visitor in international terms, well, you need a lot more tourists to buy the same amount of oil or penicillin.
Greece doesn't have a problem with earning foreign currency. Its revenue from exports and tourism greatly exceeds its cost of imports.
It doesn't need to devalue to get its economy growing. It needs to stimulate domestic demand and investment, increase employment and collect the tax. The Eurocrats and IMF are insisting on Greece reducing demand which is crazy. It could stimulate demand by printing and using its own currency. But neither the Greeks nor the Eurocrats want Greece to leave the euro.
I suspect we will end up with a compromise of semi-austerity, better tax collection and radical debt restructuring followed by a slow climb out of recession.
Greece has a large, negative trade balance. This is not unconnected to its massive debt.
Not true.
Greece had a huge current account deficit until recently. By late last year, by a combination of increased exports and reduced imports, they moved back into balance.
However, I think they are likely to run substantially negative again. Tourism, Greece's biggest export earner, is likely to be severely curtailed this summer (to the benefit of Spain and Italy).
The population of Greece is going to drop rather heavily in the next few months IMO as the well-educated relocate to northern Europe and elsewhere.
I've been seeing an increase in CVs from Greece for a while now. We took one on last month - a developer called Mikhail and paid towards his family relocation. That probably wasn't necessary but worth doing. He's damn good at his job and he seems to be loving the life at the other end of the Med.
I'd put money on them settling permanently - or at least not going back to Greece any time soon. Once they are used to the salary they won't be able to go that far backwards.
Survey of One, I know. But I doubt it's unique.
More than 50% of the doctors applying for jobs in my department are Greek now. Excellent doctors in the main too.
Indeed I see remittences home from the Greek Diaspora being a major source of Forex for Greece in the future, like it is for the Phillipines now.
What nonsence. Salmond didn't need anyones permission to use sterling as the hapless Darling admitted in second debate. His only mistake was not to explicitly say to leave the RUK with the Bank of England, sterling and £1.5 trillion worth of debt. It would have been much the best outcome for Scotland.
This should be offered in 2018, Sterling just isn't worth the effort of trying to counter the Loyalist lies. Best outcome is Sterlingisation for up to 5 years while a new currency is set up. A currency which would be rock hard in a way Sterling once was but can never be again.
I'm clearly slow. Could you explain the meaning behind the final sentence.
Please do remember that default doesn't make your debts go away. Just because you are no longer making payments doesn't mean the money is not accruing.
True but a debt restructuring and or writedown is a necessary condition to get Greece back on the road to recovery along side a much more realistic exchange rate under a new Drachma.
I have argued for a long time on here that the best outcome for Greece was a return to the Drachma.
But the current disorderly default is a disaster for Greece. Falling out the Eurozone without the support of the IMF, with insolvent banks and with a disaster in Greece's biggest export industry (tourism) is in no way a success.
In lighter news: 'Stoke school bans skirts for being too short'
The school has received criticism for “stifling” girls’ creativity, but Morris said the girls can express themselves by being “mathematicians, scientists” and writing poetry, not through the length of their skirts
Look: the Euro was wrong for Greece, they never should have joined, and they should have left either in 2011 or at the start of this year.
But ignoring that: why should the people to whom Greece owes money change their mind based on the referendum?
If I am working for a pension fund in Sydney, and I've lent Greece money, why should I not still demand full repayment.
One person's borrowing is another person's saving. When we talk of wiping out Greece's debts, let's be honest and remember we're talking about wiping out somebody else's retirement savings.
A lot of people will find out the hard way in the upcoming global sovereign debt crisis that their pensions are threatened, as much pensions savings are invested in the bond market. As usual though many will wake up to the problem too late....
Please do remember that default doesn't make your debts go away. Just because you are no longer making payments doesn't mean the money is not accruing.
True but a debt restructuring and or writedown is a necessary condition to get Greece back on the road to recovery along side a much more realistic exchange rate under a new Drachma.
I have argued for a long time on here that the best outcome for Greece was a return to the Drachma.
But the current disorderly default is a disaster for Greece. Falling out the Eurozone without the support of the IMF, with insolvent banks and with a disaster in Greece's biggest export industry (tourism) is in no way a success.
I don't see how you can make definitive predictions over events which are without any precedent. No developed economy has ever defaulted, let alone faced falling out of currency union. The outcome for Greece is not guaranteed in any direction. The closest is probably Argentia which is doing Very Well Thanks these days (and would be doing much better if the US Government outlawed Vulture Funds).
Please do remember that default doesn't make your debts go away. Just because you are no longer making payments doesn't mean the money is not accruing.
True but a debt restructuring and or writedown is a necessary condition to get Greece back on the road to recovery along side a much more realistic exchange rate under a new Drachma.
I have argued for a long time on here that the best outcome for Greece was a return to the Drachma.
But the current disorderly default is a disaster for Greece. Falling out the Eurozone without the support of the IMF, with insolvent banks and with a disaster in Greece's biggest export industry (tourism) is in no way a success.
It's a disaster ok helped on by the faulty design of the euro and the intransigence of the troika to face up to reality.
Look: the Euro was wrong for Greece, they never should have joined, and they should have left either in 2011 or at the start of this year.
But ignoring that: why should the people to whom Greece owes money change their mind based on the referendum?
If I am working for a pension fund in Sydney, and I've lent Greece money, why should I not still demand full repayment.
One person's borrowing is another person's saving. When we talk of wiping out Greece's debts, let's be honest and remember we're talking about wiping out somebody else's retirement savings.
A lot of people will find out the hard way in the upcoming global sovereign debt crisis that their pensions are threatened, as much pensions savings are invested in the bond market. As usual though many will wake up to the problem too late....
Actually as we are entering an age where the majority of people have no significant private retirement savings, this really won't be much of an issue to most people in the UK.
(I'm sure people will miss the £40 a month their Money Purchase Scheme pays out but it won't be the sort of hardship you suggest).
I agree. If the EU lets Greece go to the wall, I will reconsider my support for the EU in the UK referendum.
Then you will be voting "no" in the referendum. Greece has gone to the wall: its banks are shut, capital controls are in place. It was kept up by billions in Euros in development loans, written-off debt and out-and-out fraud. The last such attempt to keep it spinning collapsed last week. For the banks to reopen now the ECB have to increase liquidity, and that will cost money. To get another bailout will need the cooperation of 18 countries, and that will cost money. Because the Greek state has decided debt repayment is optional, they want debt relief, and that will cost money. All these things require money, time, and the cooperation of at least 18 Parliaments. Big heavy chain, many weak links, whoops.
Beside, what's the problem? Eurosceptics have been saying for years that the Euro is a bad thing and people must leave it. Well, congratulations, you got your wish. Happy now?
But ignoring that: why should the people to whom Greece owes money change their mind based on the referendum?
If I am working for a pension fund in Sydney, and I've lent Greece money, why should I not still demand full repayment.
(a) the bulk of Greece's debts are owned to multinational bodies, not to the private sector. They may make decision for non-economic reasons
(b) If a pension fund in Sydney still owes Greek debt, they are fools. I suspect what little debt is there is held in private offshore investment vehicles (let's call them "hedge funds" for short, although few are hedged). I have little sympathy for them: there is a reason why short term debt had a 50% yield. Sorry, buddy: if you've put your investors money in Greece, you've got to take your lumps.
Look: the Euro was wrong for Greece, they never should have joined, and they should have left either in 2011 or at the start of this year.
But ignoring that: why should the people to whom Greece owes money change their mind based on the referendum?
If I am working for a pension fund in Sydney, and I've lent Greece money, why should I not still demand full repayment.
One person's borrowing is another person's saving. When we talk of wiping out Greece's debts, let's be honest and remember we're talking about wiping out somebody else's retirement savings.
A lot of people will find out the hard way in the upcoming global sovereign debt crisis that their pensions are threatened, as much pensions savings are invested in the bond market. As usual though many will wake up to the problem too late....
Actually as we are entering an age where the majority of people have no significant private retirement savings, this really won't be much of an issue to most people in the UK.
(I'm sure people will miss the £40 a month their Money Purchase Scheme pays out but it won't be the sort of hardship you suggest).
Sorry Dair but alot of people will be relying on governments caught up in the oncoming global sovereign debt crisis which is even worse in many ways. Would you really want to be a greek pensioner solely reliant on their government for your income right now?
I don't see how you can make definitive predictions over events which are without any precedent. No developed economy has ever defaulted, let alone faced falling out of currency union. The outcome for Greece is not guaranteed in any direction. The closest is probably Argentia which is doing Very Well Thanks these days (and would be doing much better if the US Government outlawed Vulture Funds).
The roublezone collapsed in the late 90's. Russia defaulted. They're not as rare as you think.
As for Argentina doing very well these days...we will have to agree to differ.
(a) the bulk of Greece's debts are owned to multinational bodies, not to the private sector. They may make decision for non-economic reasons
(b) If a pension fund in Sydney still owes Greek debt, they are fools. I suspect what little debt is there is held in private offshore investment vehicles (let's call them "hedge funds" for short, although few are hedged). I have little sympathy for them: there is a reason why short term debt had a 50% yield. Sorry, buddy: if you've put your investors money in Greece, you've got to take your lumps.
1. So what?
2. Until SYRIZA was elected, 10 year Greek bond yields were in the mid single digits and it was part of the government bond indices.
Basically, you're using the example of someone who bought their Greek government debt three weeks ago. That's not meaningful.
Look: the Euro was wrong for Greece, they never should have joined, and they should have left either in 2011 or at the start of this year.
But ignoring that: why should the people to whom Greece owes money change their mind based on the referendum?
If I am working for a pension fund in Sydney, and I've lent Greece money, why should I not still demand full repayment.
One person's borrowing is another person's saving. When we talk of wiping out Greece's debts, let's be honest and remember we're talking about wiping out somebody else's retirement savings.
A lot of people will find out the hard way in the upcoming global sovereign debt crisis that their pensions are threatened, as much pensions savings are invested in the bond market. As usual though many will wake up to the problem too late....
Actually as we are entering an age where the majority of people have no significant private retirement savings, this really won't be much of an issue to most people in the UK.
(I'm sure people will miss the £40 a month their Money Purchase Scheme pays out but it won't be the sort of hardship you suggest).
Sorry Dair but alot of people will be relying on governments caught up in the oncoming global sovereign debt crisis which is even worse in many ways. Would you really want to be a greek pensioner solely reliant on their government for your income right now?
I completely agree that there is no security in expectations of future state pensions but your previous point was about private pensions and where they are invested.
In all likelihood the private pensions will go bust before the governments do, at least as far as the Northern European economies are concerned and the UK has by far the most worthless private pension provision so it will be missed less by the average Brit than would be the case for a Germany or Dutch or Danish national.
In any case, neither point offers anything other than penury to the vast bulk of people under 40 today.
I'm interested to see the fall out from Greece in the coming months, hopefully some reality will finally hit home about the money trees we've all been shaking for so long. Look at public sector pensions in the UK, nothing but a Ponzi scheme, and we all know what happens to them.
And I'm not sure how Cameron and other committed Eurphiles will feel, although this isn't good news, it might mean that Merkel et al are prepared to give him more concessions to keep the failed project together.
Regardless, the Greeks are facing a period where money will be very scarce, I hope they can pull it together and trade their way out of trouble.
Please do remember that default doesn't make your debts go away. Just because you are no longer making payments doesn't mean the money is not accruing.
True but a debt restructuring and or writedown is a necessary condition to get Greece back on the road to recovery along side a much more realistic exchange rate under a new Drachma.
I have argued for a long time on here that the best outcome for Greece was a return to the Drachma.
But the current disorderly default is a disaster for Greece. Falling out the Eurozone without the support of the IMF, with insolvent banks and with a disaster in Greece's biggest export industry (tourism) is in no way a success.
It's a disaster ok helped on by the faulty design of the euro and the intransigence of the troika to face up to reality.
Sure: Greece is just like any country (Argentina, Ecuador, Venezuela) that borrowed in a foreign currency and now cannot pay it back.
But - as Iceland showed - it is better to exit your crisis with the full support of the IMF, than a disorderly default where all your banks become insolvent and no-one can withdraw money, and you can't import the essentials needed for your existence.
Because, make no mistake about it, that is where Greece is.
Yes: they should leave the Euro. Obviously. But that is only one side of the coin. Without reform they are still royally f*cked.
(a) the bulk of Greece's debts are owned to multinational bodies, not to the private sector. They may make decision for non-economic reasons
(b) If a pension fund in Sydney still owes Greek debt, they are fools. I suspect what little debt is there is held in private offshore investment vehicles (let's call them "hedge funds" for short, although few are hedged). I have little sympathy for them: there is a reason why short term debt had a 50% yield. Sorry, buddy: if you've put your investors money in Greece, you've got to take your lumps.
1. So what?
2. Until SYRIZA was elected, 10 year Greek bond yields were in the mid single digits and it was part of the government bond indices.
Basically, you're using the example of someone who bought their Greek government debt three weeks ago. That's not meaningful.
1. So what? There may be valid political reasons for writing off debt, that a private investor would not do. We elect politicians to take decisions on this basis. There's a reason why hedge fund investors don't run the country
2. How many conventional pension funds have exposure to Greek debt even pre-SYRIZA? I suspect very few - it was on the exotic end of the risk spectrum, even before the elections with the yields only as low as they were because of ECB buying. So I don't think your eample of a Sydney pension fund is representative.
Please do remember that default doesn't make your debts go away. Just because you are no longer making payments doesn't mean the money is not accruing.
True but a debt restructuring and or writedown is a necessary condition to get Greece back on the road to recovery along side a much more realistic exchange rate under a new Drachma.
I have argued for a long time on here that the best outcome for Greece was a return to the Drachma.
But the current disorderly default is a disaster for Greece. Falling out the Eurozone without the support of the IMF, with insolvent banks and with a disaster in Greece's biggest export industry (tourism) is in no way a success.
I don't see how you can make definitive predictions over events which are without any precedent. No developed economy has ever defaulted, let alone faced falling out of currency union. The outcome for Greece is not guaranteed in any direction. The closest is probably Argentia which is doing Very Well Thanks these days (and would be doing much better if the US Government outlawed Vulture Funds).
Your knowledge of economic history is basically non-existent.
Countries have fallen out of currency unions. Developed countries have defaulted. Argentina is doing shit.
If the ECB does not extend the EUR89bn of ELA (which I suspect they will not), what then for Greece?
(a) the bulk of Greece's debts are owned to multinational bodies, not to the private sector. They may make decision for non-economic reasons
(b) If a pension fund in Sydney still owes Greek debt, they are fools. I suspect what little debt is there is held in private offshore investment vehicles (let's call them "hedge funds" for short, although few are hedged). I have little sympathy for them: there is a reason why short term debt had a 50% yield. Sorry, buddy: if you've put your investors money in Greece, you've got to take your lumps.
1. So what?
2. Until SYRIZA was elected, 10 year Greek bond yields were in the mid single digits and it was part of the government bond indices.
Basically, you're using the example of someone who bought their Greek government debt three weeks ago. That's not meaningful.
1. So what? There may be valid political reasons for writing off debt, that a private investor would not do. We elect politicians to take decisions on this basis. There's a reason why hedge fund investors don't run the country
2. How many conventional pension funds have exposure to Greek debt even pre-SYRIZA? I suspect very few - it was on the exotic end of the risk spectrum, even before the elections with the yields only as low as they were because of ECB buying. So I don't think your eample of a Sydney pension fund is representative.
Around 20% of Greek debt is in private sector hands.
Any emerging market debt fund - which many pension funds will have held - is likely to have held Greek debt.
The only loser from a NO vote will the Greeks. Both options are terrible, but I suspect this will be the start of a Grexit - exactly what the Greeks don't want, even though there only real chance of recovery is outside of the Euro.
In lighter news: 'Stoke school bans skirts for being too short'
The school has received criticism for “stifling” girls’ creativity, but Morris said the girls can express themselves by being “mathematicians, scientists” and writing poetry, not through the length of their skirts
(a) the bulk of Greece's debts are owned to multinational bodies, not to the private sector. They may make decision for non-economic reasons
(b) If a pension fund in Sydney still owes Greek debt, they are fools. I suspect what little debt is there is held in private offshore investment vehicles (let's call them "hedge funds" for short, although few are hedged). I have little sympathy for them: there is a reason why short term debt had a 50% yield. Sorry, buddy: if you've put your investors money in Greece, you've got to take your lumps.
1. So what?
2. Until SYRIZA was elected, 10 year Greek bond yields were in the mid single digits and it was part of the government bond indices.
Basically, you're using the example of someone who bought their Greek government debt three weeks ago. That's not meaningful.
1. So what? There may be valid political reasons for writing off debt, that a private investor would not do. We elect politicians to take decisions on this basis. There's a reason why hedge fund investors don't run the country
2. How many conventional pension funds have exposure to Greek debt even pre-SYRIZA? I suspect very few - it was on the exotic end of the risk spectrum, even before the elections with the yields only as low as they were because of ECB buying. So I don't think your eample of a Sydney pension fund is representative.
Around 20% of Greek debt is in private sector hands.
Any emerging market debt fund - which many pension funds will have held - is likely to have held Greek debt.
And those funds that were underweight Greek debt will do well and benefit in future. That's the market.
The fundamental point is that you get paid high yields for taking risk. If people really believed Greek debt was a single digit yielding paper then I suspect they were assuming a degree of sovereign put. And they made a bad investment call.
Presumably with only 20% outstanding they can be forced into a restructuring (didn't Greece change the law covering their debt instruments a couple of years back to allow this?). And if they mispriced that risk, then that's their outlook
Please do remember that default doesn't make your debts go away. Just because you are no longer making payments doesn't mean the money is not accruing.
True but a debt restructuring and or writedown is a necessary condition to get Greece back on the road to recovery along side a much more realistic exchange rate under a new Drachma.
I have argued for a long time on here that the best outcome for Greece was a return to the Drachma.
But the current disorderly default is a disaster for Greece. Falling out the Eurozone without the support of the IMF, with insolvent banks and with a disaster in Greece's biggest export industry (tourism) is in no way a success.
I don't see how you can make definitive predictions over events which are without any precedent. No developed economy has ever defaulted, let alone faced falling out of currency union. The outcome for Greece is not guaranteed in any direction. The closest is probably Argentia which is doing Very Well Thanks these days (and would be doing much better if the US Government outlawed Vulture Funds).
Your knowledge of economic history is basically non-existent.
Countries have fallen out of currency unions. Developed countries have defaulted. Argentina is doing shit.
If the ECB does not extend the EUR89bn of ELA (which I suspect they will not), what then for Greece?
You neglected to mention the absurdity of trying to outlaw "vulture funds". I looked at this perhaps 12 years ago for a major [. ] bank in the context of restricting assignment of international loan agreements. First define vulture fund. And don't get me started on control of voting in loan participations. My working assumption is that whenever someone talks about vulture funds they can't do objective. It's a subjective and simplistic, waah I don't like it mummy.
In lighter news: 'Stoke school bans skirts for being too short'
The school has received criticism for “stifling” girls’ creativity, but Morris said the girls can express themselves by being “mathematicians, scientists” and writing poetry, not through the length of their skirts
The only loser from a NO vote will the Greeks. Both options are terrible, but I suspect this will be the start of a Grexit - exactly what the Greeks don't want, even though there only real chance of recovery is outside of the Euro.
In lighter news: 'Stoke school bans skirts for being too short'
The school has received criticism for “stifling” girls’ creativity, but Morris said the girls can express themselves by being “mathematicians, scientists” and writing poetry, not through the length of their skirts
Look: the Euro was wrong for Greece, they never should have joined, and they should have left either in 2011 or at the start of this year.
But ignoring that: why should the people to whom Greece owes money change their mind based on the referendum?
If I am working for a pension fund in Sydney, and I've lent Greece money, why should I not still demand full repayment.
One person's borrowing is another person's saving. When we talk of wiping out Greece's debts, let's be honest and remember we're talking about wiping out somebody else's retirement savings.
A lot of people will find out the hard way in the upcoming global sovereign debt crisis that their pensions are threatened, as much pensions savings are invested in the bond market. As usual though many will wake up to the problem too late....
Actually as we are entering an age where the majority of people have no significant private retirement savings, this really won't be much of an issue to most people in the UK.
(I'm sure people will miss the £40 a month their Money Purchase Scheme pays out but it won't be the sort of hardship you suggest).
Sorry Dair but alot of people will be relying on governments caught up in the oncoming global sovereign debt crisis which is even worse in many ways. Would you really want to be a greek pensioner solely reliant on their government for your income right now?
I completely agree that there is no security in expectations of future state pensions but your previous point was about private pensions and where they are invested.
In all likelihood the private pensions will go bust before the governments do, at least as far as the Northern European economies are concerned and the UK has by far the most worthless private pension provision so it will be missed less by the average Brit than would be the case for a Germany or Dutch or Danish national.
In any case, neither point offers anything other than penury to the vast bulk of people under 40 today.
In what sense is are UK private pensions worthless, you ignorant buffoon?
I completely agree that there is no security in expectations of future state pensions but your previous point was about private pensions and where they are invested.
In all likelihood the private pensions will go bust before the governments do, at least as far as the Northern European economies are concerned and the UK has by far the most worthless private pension provision so it will be missed less by the average Brit than would be the case for a Germany or Dutch or Danish national.
In any case, neither point offers anything other than penury to the vast bulk of people under 40 today.
In what sense is are UK private pensions worthless, you ignorant buffoon?
Predominantly due to the high level of charging, the poor tax benefits and the lack of public understanding of just how little a Money Purchase pension will give them in retirement.
Add to that the complete lack of public engagement and education of what the last 20 years of pension changes actually mean for most people and you have a blindfolded public walking into oblivion.
Of course as Government would need to take responsibility for the engagement and education which would have to include a pretty clear message of "The Tories and Labour have utterly screwed you all and for a lot of you there is nothing you can do even if you get the message now", there is no appetite in Government to take such an initiative.
I don't see how you can make definitive predictions over events which are without any precedent. No developed economy has ever defaulted, let alone faced falling out of currency union. The outcome for Greece is not guaranteed in any direction. The closest is probably Argentia which is doing Very Well Thanks these days (and would be doing much better if the US Government outlawed Vulture Funds).
The roublezone collapsed in the late 90's. Russia defaulted. They're not as rare as you think.
As for Argentina doing very well these days...we will have to agree to differ.
As would my Argentinian friends, who were spitting over currency controls when I met them last September - and the September before that, for that matter.
Argentina isnt as good a place to be rich as it used to be, but your average poor or middle class person is doing a lot better, hence why Kirchner's successor is looking like a shoo-in.
Comments
https://twitter.com/mlilleker/status/617748385915891712
http://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/labdeal.jpg
It seems that the "Fear of the SNP won the election for the Tories" is a myth that needs put to bed.
Alexis Tsipras: "It is an honour to have lived at yours!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQrEFN77qtI
I disagree that you can't blame the Greek voters. In any democracy, ultimate responsibility has to lie with the electorate otherwise they cannot claim to have ultimate sovereignty (and tax-dodging was so endemic that it too has to be laid at the level of the population at large). That said, the political and business elites must accept their share of the blame too.
*some, not all.
05-07-2015 21:02
Registered 2.647.334
Reporting 30,61 %
Voted 58,49 %
Invalid/Blank 5,64 %
NO 60,75 %
YES 39,25 %
Euclid Tsakalotos, the government's chief negotiator said talks could restart as early as Sunday evening.
First indications were that any joint European political response may take a couple of days. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande will meet in Paris on Monday afternoon. The European Commission, the EU executive, meets in Strasbourg on Tuesday and will report to the European Parliament on the situation.
It doesn't need to devalue to get its economy growing. It needs to stimulate domestic demand and investment, increase employment and collect the tax. The Eurocrats and IMF are insisting on Greece reducing demand which is crazy. It could stimulate demand by printing and using its own currency. But neither the Greeks nor the Eurocrats want Greece to leave the euro.
I suspect we will end up with a compromise of semi-austerity, better tax collection and radical debt restructuring followed by a slow climb out of recession.
But ignoring that... we have had fixed currency regimes in the past. The last global fixed currency scheme was the Gold Standard, which was in existence from about 1850 to 1970 (with about 15 years in abeyance prior to WW2).
But fixed currency regimes are hard. They mean you have to adjust to changes in external demand by adjusting the costs of your economy merely by allowing the price of your currency to change. Of course, they are not without their advantages: savers feel much happier knowing the government cannot devalue their savings, and therefore business investment levels tend to be higher.
But they also mean that mistakes are hard to "sweep away". Erasing the horrendous errors that Britain made in the 1970s was a whole lot easier when the currency could depreciate away issues.
Tsipras = David Niven
ECB/EU/IMF = The Guns of Navarone.
Greece’s interior ministry has released an official projection, showing that the no side is set to win by 61%. - That is a landslide result for the government, which had urged people to reject the bailout proposals made by lenders.
Don’t think the investors were expecting such a decisive NO in this referendum – no doubt followed by lots of turbulence in tomorrow’s financial markets.
Are the initial counts representative of the country as a whole, or are they counting votes in large cities and small islands faster than votes in rural areas, which could lead to a swing back towards YES as the count progresses..?
That said, the pollsters didn't have long to establish an accurate methodology for weighting and so on in the referendum.
I'd put money on them settling permanently - or at least not going back to Greece any time soon. Once they are used to the salary they won't be able to go that far backwards.
Survey of One, I know. But I doubt it's unique.
This is why the most supportive euro countries were Greece, Italy, and so on.
Countries also make mistakes the other way. Sweden raised interest rates far too high, and practically manufactured a recession. They didn't need the euro to over-value the benefits of a hard currency regime.
Look: the Euro was wrong for Greece, they never should have joined, and they should have left either in 2011 or at the start of this year.
But ignoring that: why should the people to whom Greece owes money change their mind based on the referendum?
If I am working for a pension fund in Sydney, and I've lent Greece money, why should I not still demand full repayment.
One person's borrowing is another person's saving. When we talk of wiping out Greece's debts, let's be honest and remember we're talking about wiping out somebody else's retirement savings.
Seems to have had something in common with red Ed Miliband.
If it turns out that the bulk of the 17% were Tories and the bulk of the 14% were Labour, then Labour's decision to say "No Deal With the SNP" will actually have cost them votes and potentially offering a formal arrangement before the vote could have prevented the Tory Majority.
I misread that to mean no side would win by 61%, neither YES nor NO.
Please do remember that default doesn't make your debts go away. Just because you are no longer making payments doesn't mean the money is not accruing.
fraudsterperverter of the course of justice.Greece had a huge current account deficit until recently. By late last year, by a combination of increased exports and reduced imports, they moved back into balance.
However, I think they are likely to run substantially negative again. Tourism, Greece's biggest export earner, is likely to be severely curtailed this summer (to the benefit of Spain and Italy).
Everything Wrong With 300 In 10 Minutes Or Less
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVQY6Si8Kq8
Indeed I see remittences home from the Greek Diaspora being a major source of Forex for Greece in the future, like it is for the Phillipines now.
Greece's greatest export will be its people.
Currencies on a long term spiral of devaluation like Sterling are not considered hard currencies (even if the spiral is fairly gradual - for now).
But the current disorderly default is a disaster for Greece. Falling out the Eurozone without the support of the IMF, with insolvent banks and with a disaster in Greece's biggest export industry (tourism) is in no way a success.
(I'm sure people will miss the £40 a month their Money Purchase Scheme pays out but it won't be the sort of hardship you suggest).
Beside, what's the problem? Eurosceptics have been saying for years that the Euro is a bad thing and people must leave it. Well, congratulations, you got your wish. Happy now?
(b) If a pension fund in Sydney still owes Greek debt, they are fools. I suspect what little debt is there is held in private offshore investment vehicles (let's call them "hedge funds" for short, although few are hedged). I have little sympathy for them: there is a reason why short term debt had a 50% yield. Sorry, buddy: if you've put your investors money in Greece, you've got to take your lumps.
As for Argentina doing very well these days...we will have to agree to differ.
2. Until SYRIZA was elected, 10 year Greek bond yields were in the mid single digits and it was part of the government bond indices.
Basically, you're using the example of someone who bought their Greek government debt three weeks ago. That's not meaningful.
In all likelihood the private pensions will go bust before the governments do, at least as far as the Northern European economies are concerned and the UK has by far the most worthless private pension provision so it will be missed less by the average Brit than would be the case for a Germany or Dutch or Danish national.
In any case, neither point offers anything other than penury to the vast bulk of people under 40 today.
And I'm not sure how Cameron and other committed Eurphiles will feel, although this isn't good news, it might mean that Merkel et al are prepared to give him more concessions to keep the failed project together.
Regardless, the Greeks are facing a period where money will be very scarce, I hope they can pull it together and trade their way out of trouble.
But - as Iceland showed - it is better to exit your crisis with the full support of the IMF, than a disorderly default where all your banks become insolvent and no-one can withdraw money, and you can't import the essentials needed for your existence.
Because, make no mistake about it, that is where Greece is.
Yes: they should leave the Euro. Obviously. But that is only one side of the coin. Without reform they are still royally f*cked.
If you think Argentina is "doing very well", I dread to think what "doing badly" looks like.
2. How many conventional pension funds have exposure to Greek debt even pre-SYRIZA? I suspect very few - it was on the exotic end of the risk spectrum, even before the elections with the yields only as low as they were because of ECB buying. So I don't think your eample of a Sydney pension fund is representative.
Countries have fallen out of currency unions.
Developed countries have defaulted.
Argentina is doing shit.
If the ECB does not extend the EUR89bn of ELA (which I suspect they will not), what then for Greece?
Any emerging market debt fund - which many pension funds will have held - is likely to have held Greek debt.
The fundamental point is that you get paid high yields for taking risk. If people really believed Greek debt was a single digit yielding paper then I suspect they were assuming a degree of sovereign put. And they made a bad investment call.
Presumably with only 20% outstanding they can be forced into a restructuring (didn't Greece change the law covering their debt instruments a couple of years back to allow this?). And if they mispriced that risk, then that's their outlook
Grexit is the right thing for the Greeks.
But the Greeks don't want Grexit.
They want "no austerity", and the Euro.
They can choose one.
Today they chose neither.
Add to that the complete lack of public engagement and education of what the last 20 years of pension changes actually mean for most people and you have a blindfolded public walking into oblivion.
Of course as Government would need to take responsibility for the engagement and education which would have to include a pretty clear message of "The Tories and Labour have utterly screwed you all and for a lot of you there is nothing you can do even if you get the message now", there is no appetite in Government to take such an initiative.
Or a super-sovereign put. I wonder what might have given them that idea?