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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nick Sparrow, the pollster who did most to change post-1992

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  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    jayfdee said:

    HYUFD said:

    As voting closes first polls suggest a narrow No in Greece it seems
    Yes - 48.5%
    No - 51.5% (MEGA channel)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb

    That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.
    Yes, not great news at all. Not decisive but still No which I think will now lead to Merkel putting her foot down and forcing Greece out of the Euro. Let us hope a humanitarian crisis in Greece does not occur but the signs are not hopeful!
    But the French are desperate for Greece to stay in the euro. They fear contagion, etc. And French banks are owed almost as much, by Greece, as German banks.

    Amongst other things this could provoke a Paris-Berlin showdown.

    *knits by guillotine*
    I doubt that. Germany will want Greece to stay in the Euro too. What they don't want is for the Greek government to renege on the debts. A Syriza government could (and probably will) fall, to be replaced by someone more realistic and competent. A Grexit, by contrast, is a one-way road that would render national debts absolutely unaffordable (if there were a 50% devaluation, that implies the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 175% to 350% and while some countries have coped with 200%+, I'm not aware of any example of a country successfully paying down 300%+).

    My impression is that the CDU government is no longer prepared to work with Tsipras and his colleagues but would be prepared to work with someone else. That will need a carrot later as well as a stick now.
    The Germans have selective memories. They forget that in 1953 Greece was one of hhe creditor nations that agreed a 50% reduction in German debt along with incredibly generous repayment options on the remaining debt.
    When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.
    And already has had an extensive debt restructuring so as to pay a far lower rate of interest on debt than previously!

    This was tweeted by the Economist on how government by IOU works. It may be possible until fresh elections, but probably not more than a few months:

    Take a look at @TheEconomist's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/617735383992942597?s=09
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    SeanT said:

    hunchman said:

    SeanT said:

    Fantastic (if Pyrrhic) victory for Tsipras if he gets a NO. All the media were agin him, and pimping shamelessly for YES.

    It shows the mood that voters are in across the West. Mutinous, capricious and prepared for anything. Cf Scotland in 2014.

    Europhiles who think IN is a cert for the UK EU ref should think again.

    Totally agree with you SeanT. Voters have simply had enough of the endless lies and subjugation from Brussels. And as for a Grexit having no implications for the rest of the Eurozone, none of the Eurozone simply have a clue. This is the first of a domino effect that will tear the Euro apart, however much they'll do everything in their declining power base to try and hold everything together. History repeatedly shows that once you go against the will of the people, sooner or later they will get their way. And the longer they have to wait for that change, the more violent the change that eventually erupts.
    The will of the Greek people is to stay in the Euro by a 3:1 ratio. When they find out that Tsiprias has been lying to them about voting No and keeping the Euro the mob will turn.
    Has he been lying to them? We have no idea. See the more recent mood music from Brussels (i.e. yesterday and today). Lots of Eurocrats - and continental politicians - are desperate to keep the euro together and prevent a Grexit at almost any cost.

    This implies a haircut for creditors, as per the IMF report, as there is no other way to keep Greece in the EZ. This implies a better deal for Tsipras and the Greeks.

    It implies a better deal for the Greeks but only, I suspect, after Tsipras has gone.
    Not just Tsipras but the entirety of Syrizia, most of all are more radical than Tsipras. Which means weeks of chaos while fresh elections occur.
    Agreed. That said, weeks of chaos might focus minds and would undoubtedly give the lie to Syriza's promises.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,045
    Charles said:

    Moses_ said:

    Moses_ said:

    Sandpit said:

    Moses_ said:

    Direct interference in a sovereign nations democratic process by the EU. They are now not even doing this discreetly . They want regime change because they don't like the government that was voted into power. This was recorded Thursday but broadcast today on the day of the referendum !


    Reuters

    The head of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, told German radio that Greece would have to introduce another currency if the “no” vote wins in Sunday's referendum on an aid-for-reforms deal.

    "Is Greece still in the euro after this referendum? That is certainly the case, but if they say ‘no’ they will have to introduce another currency after the referendum because the euro is not available as a means of payment," Schulz told Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio in an interview broadcast on Sunday and taped on Thursday.

    "The moment someone introduces a new currency, they exit the euro zone. Those are the elements that give me some hope that the people will not vote ‘no’ today.”

    His comments are some of the clearest made by a top EU official.

    That's quite disgraceful! The Greek govt are wrong about almost everything, but the one thing they have right is that there's no mechanism for them to be kicked out of the Euro.

    This sort of statement by EU officials doesn't bode well for the British referendum either, although the consequences for a British exit are very different to those in Greece.
    Sounds more like a statement of the bleeding obvious to me! If the Greek banks are without liquidity in Euros then they will have to use something else.

    Of course they will that's not the point.the point is the arrogant interference by an unelected official
    In what way is he "unelected"?
    Take a different approach

    I don't want him.... How do I vote him out? Where do I cast my vote directly against him. I can't ....

    That may be acceptable for the EU but That's makes him unelected in my book
    How do you vote Bercow out as Speaker?
    Isn't his role specifically not to take sides in political debate, as the referee rather than advancing the point of any one side?

    He is also an MP, he can be voted out in the usual manner at an election.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    It seems like the young people of Greece are very much in the no camp.

    With gargantuan youth unemployment, one can hardly blame them.
  • isam said:

    chestnut said:

    It's taken a while but finally..
    image
    image

    I don't get it... You're not trying to say they look alike?
    Leslie reminds me more of Gordon Brittas.
    More of a female version of Hazel Blears. Spouting the latest party line again and again and again.... A NAV. No Added Value.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.

    He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.

    And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    I seem to remember back in February / March, the Eurozone finance ministers mocking Osborne for having done contingency planning for Greece leaving the euro. Between this and the General Election, Osborne must be in danger of getting incredibly smug.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Moses_ said:

    Moses_ said:

    Sandpit said:

    Moses_ said:

    Direct interference in a sovereign nations democratic process by the EU. They are now not even doing this discreetly . They want regime change because they don't like the government that was voted into power. This was recorded Thursday but broadcast today on the day of the referendum !


    Reuters

    The head of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, told German radio that Greece would have to introduce another currency if the “no” vote wins in Sunday's referendum on an aid-for-reforms deal.

    "Is Greece still in the euro after this referendum? That is certainly the case, but if they say ‘no’ they will have to introduce another currency after the referendum because the euro is not available as a means of payment," Schulz told Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio in an interview broadcast on Sunday and taped on Thursday.

    "The moment someone introduces a new currency, they exit the euro zone. Those are the elements that give me some hope that the people will not vote ‘no’ today.”

    His comments are some of the clearest made by a top EU official.

    That's quite disgraceful! The Greek govt are wrong about almost everything, but the one thing they have right is that there's no mechanism for them to be kicked out of the Euro.

    This sort of statement by EU officials doesn't bode well for the British referendum either, although the consequences for a British exit are very different to those in Greece.
    Sounds more like a statement of the bleeding obvious to me! If the Greek banks are without liquidity in Euros then they will have to use something else.

    Of course they will that's not the point.the point is the arrogant interference by an unelected official
    In what way is he "unelected"?
    Take a different approach

    I don't want him.... How do I vote him out? Where do I cast my vote directly against him. I can't ....

    That may be acceptable for the EU but That's makes him unelected in my book
    How do you vote Bercow out as Speaker?
    Isn't his role specifically not to take sides in political debate, as the referee rather than advancing the point of any one side?

    He is also an MP, he can be voted out in the usual manner at an election.
    Not "in the usual manner" as the electorate aren't given a full slate of options.
    Not all parties stand against the speaker so it's a most peculiar local situation and much harder to vote him out that way.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Well, not close would be best, right? No arguments about what path the country wanted to follow, whichever crap path ends up being followed.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    NO is substantially ahead in every region and every electoral district.

    60% NO 40% YES

    Very decisive. I've lost my bet but I'm glad for the Greeks.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    = debt write off.

    LOL what a precedent.

    Just think, if the Irish had behaved like petulant children, instead of responsible Europeans, they might have got a debt write off too.

  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Charles said:

    Moses_ said:

    Moses_ said:

    Sandpit said:

    Moses_ said:

    Direct interference in a sovereign nations democratic process by the EU. They are now not even doing this discreetly . They want regime change because they don't like the government that was voted into power. This was recorded Thursday but broadcast today on the day of the referendum !


    Reuters

    The head of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, told German radio that Greece would have to introduce another currency if the “no” vote wins in Sunday's referendum on an aid-for-reforms deal.

    "Is Greece still in the euro after this referendum? That is certainly the case, but if they say ‘no’ they will have to introduce another currency after the referendum because the euro is not available as a means of payment," Schulz told Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio in an interview broadcast on Sunday and taped on Thursday.

    "The moment someone introduces a new currency, they exit the euro zone. Those are the elements that give me some hope that the people will not vote ‘no’ today.”

    His comments are some of the clearest made by a top EU official.

    That's quite disgraceful! The Greek govt are wrong about almost everything, but the one thing they have right is that there's no mechanism for them to be kicked out of the Euro.

    This sort of statement by EU officials doesn't bode well for the British referendum either, although the consequences for a British exit are very different to those in Greece.
    Sounds more like a statement of the bleeding obvious to me! If the Greek banks are without liquidity in Euros then they will have to use something else.

    Of course they will that's not the point.the point is the arrogant interference by an unelected official
    In what way is he "unelected"?
    Take a different approach

    I don't want him.... How do I vote him out? Where do I cast my vote directly against him. I can't ....

    That may be acceptable for the EU but That's makes him unelected in my book
    How do you vote Bercow out as Speaker?
    No idea.
  • JohnO said:

    .....
    Or - as it feels to me - the pollsters themselves, because of subtle pressure from clients, media, commentariat 'wisdom', whatever etc, chose to ensure that their results accorded close to the perceived average, presumably by various 'adjustings' at the last minute. TSE has reported that ICM, for one, has vigorously denied that this took place in the last week, when its hitherto findings of the Conservatives someway ahead suddenly went into sharp reverse and catastrophically erroneous gear on polling day. Others did the same.

    Dan Hodges is scathing about the herd factor which he contends simply isn't possible statitically. I'm afraid Nick's piece does little as credible refutation.

    This article from Nick goes close to endorsing Hodges article. It does show how good Hodges can be at nailing the truth even at risk to his own reputation and future work.
    JohnO you are right in regarding the polsters actions as bordering on the shameful, but they will suffer in their bank accounts from reputational damage. Utter madness. An outbreak of Ratner like actions.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,045
    SeanT said:

    Sandpit said:

    Results coming in?
    twitter.com/MacroPolis_gr/status/617742326434279424

    Yes:

    http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/e/public/index.html?lang=en#{"cls":"main","params":{}}

    So far it is overwhelmingly NO. Not close at all.
    That's updating every minute or two now as the results come in. Looking like 60:40 'No' so far. At least it's decisive!
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally another thought occurs to me, linked to OGH's comments on the Liberal Democrat vote moving to Labour - with hindsight, that benefitted the Conservatives as well. This was something I did not foresee, but it appears we all far underestimated how much of the orange vote was purely tactical. With that unwinding, of course it helped Labour a little - but how many seats did the Conservatives win because Labour and the LDs split the vote between them? Certainly at least 30, many of them in the West Country. A huge gain of votes to Labour that actually had a negative impact on their chances of winning power. We all knew about this effect - yet I didn't hear anyone speculate on how tactical unwind would benefit the Tories, given that the tactic was to keep them out in the first place.

    I mentioned Yeovil specifically a couple of times as a seat at risk, as well as Chippenham (which I took an active interest in). And extrapolated them to the West country as whole.

    But each time I did, I was shouted down by Mark Senior with a mass of tediously irrelevant data, so gave up trying to highlight what was coming down the track.
    29/12/2014 Mark Senior wrote "FWIW, my own forecast for next May is Lib Dems 14-15% and 35-38 seats"

    Mark Senior also said it was "Only in TC's wet dreams" when taffys said: "Are we looking at the possibility of the lib dems losing Kingston/Surbiton and even Twickers...???"

    No dream, just reality....
    Looking back it was rather cruel to torment Mark Senior as he was very clearly not the full shilling upstairs.

    He used to bite like a 20 year old cat with diabetes and I've got to admit that poking him with a stick was one of the (many) joys of the campaign for me.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    jayfdee said:

    HYUFD said:

    As voting closes first polls suggest a narrow No in Greece it seems
    Yes - 48.5%
    No - 51.5% (MEGA channel)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb

    That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.
    Yes, not great news at all. Not decisive but still No which I think will now lead to Merkel putting her foot down and forcing Greece out of the Euro. Let us hope a humanitarian crisis in Greece does not occur but the signs are not hopeful!
    But the French are desperate for Greece to stay in the euro. They fear contagion, etc. And French banks are owed almost as much, by Greece, as German banks.

    Amongst other things this could provoke a Paris-Berlin showdown.

    *knits by guillotine*
    I doubt that. Germany will want Greece to stay in the Euro too. What they don't want is for the Greek government to renege on the debts. A Syriza government could (and probably will) fall, to be replaced by someone more realistic and competent. A Grexit, by contrast, is a one-way road that would render national debts absolutely unaffordable (if there were a 50% devaluation, that implies the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 175% to 350% and while some countries have coped with 200%+, I'm not aware of any example of a country successfully paying down 300%+).

    My impression is that the CDU government is no longer prepared to work with Tsipras and his colleagues but would be prepared to work with someone else. That will need a carrot later as well as a stick now.
    The Germans have selective memories. They forget that in 1953 Greece was one of hhe creditor nations that agreed a 50% reduction in German debt along with incredibly generous repayment options on the remaining debt.
    When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.
    Of course. All Germany did was start a genocidal war that killed 60 million people. No where near as bad as daring to upset the EU and get into financial trouble aided and abetted by the rest of the EU.

    I suggest you need a serious reality check.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Barnesian said:

    NO is substantially ahead in every region and every electoral district.

    60% NO 40% YES

    Very decisive. I've lost my bet but I'm glad for the Greeks.

    What other serious option did they have? Handing over control of the country to unelected, foreign entities entirely complicit in causing the problem in the first place was never going to be a hugely popular option.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,157
    SeanT said:

    H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.

    He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.

    And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....

    It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).

    Cat~pigeons.
    "Nai, we can!"
    "Oh, Okhi, then!"
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,547
    SeanT said:

    H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.

    He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.

    And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....

    It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).

    Cat~pigeons.
    Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    GIN1138 said:





    When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.

    Germany did bring quite a lot of that on itself though...

    Granted, but the key point is that at the time of the debt write-off (West) Germany had quite clearly set itself on a different path from that which resulted in the earlier disasters.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Moses_ said:

    Charles said:

    Moses_ said:

    Moses_ said:

    Sandpit said:

    Moses_ said:

    Direct interference in a sovereign nations democratic process by the EU. They are now not even doing this discreetly . They want regime change because they don't like the government that was voted into power. This was recorded Thursday but broadcast today on the day of the referendum !


    Reuters

    The head of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, told German radio that Greece would have to introduce another currency if the “no” vote wins in Sunday's referendum on an aid-for-reforms deal.

    "Is Greece still in the euro after this referendum? That is certainly the case, but if they say ‘no’ they will have to introduce another currency after the referendum because the euro is not available as a means of payment," Schulz told Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio in an interview broadcast on Sunday and taped on Thursday.

    "The moment someone introduces a new currency, they exit the euro zone. Those are the elements that give me some hope that the people will not vote ‘no’ today.”

    His comments are some of the clearest made by a top EU official.

    That's quite disgraceful! The Greek govt are wrong about almost everything, but the one thing they have right is that there's no mechanism for them to be kicked out of the Euro.

    This sort of statement by EU officials doesn't bode well for the British referendum either, although the consequences for a British exit are very different to those in Greece.
    Sounds more like a statement of the bleeding obvious to me! If the Greek banks are without liquidity in Euros then they will have to use something else.

    Of course they will that's not the point.the point is the arrogant interference by an unelected official
    In what way is he "unelected"?
    Take a different approach

    I don't want him.... How do I vote him out? Where do I cast my vote directly against him. I can't ....

    That may be acceptable for the EU but That's makes him unelected in my book
    How do you vote Bercow out as Speaker?
    No idea.
    Within Parliament - this way:
    http://www.parliament.uk/about/faqs/house-of-commons-faqs/speakers-election/
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The Greek referendum does nothing to change the broader dynamic.

    Look at how pleased the English were at the thought of Scotland getting it's way.

    All over Europe, countries will be getting that English feeling about Greece's Scottish style referendum result.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,388
    edited July 2015
    SeanT said:



    What a fantastical clusterf*ck.

    Fantastic isn't it? :smiley:

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    SeanT said:

    H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.

    He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.

    And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....

    It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).

    Cat~pigeons.
    "Nai, we can!"
    "Oh, Okhi, then!"
    You've said this a few times now Sunil.
    Is it a quote from somewhere?
    Google doesn't give me any results.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,045
    weejonnie said:

    You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.

    Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.

    Of course they're popular.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    Well, not close would be best, right? No arguments about what path the country wanted to follow, whichever crap path ends up being followed.

    This is a huge political triumph for Tsipras though. Which means that he will be impossible to remove, in the short order that Merkel wants. He's won an election by a distance, and now a referendum against the odds.
    .
    If he now gets a significantly better deal than had been previously offered, it was a dangerously risky gamble, an insanely risky gamble, but would have paid off. A hell of an if though. Were Tsipras and co really as confident as they claimed I wonder? Their tactics around the initial announcement did not seem super as confident.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690
    edited July 2015

    GIN1138 said:





    When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.

    Germany did bring quite a lot of that on itself though...

    Granted, but the key point is that at the time of the debt write-off (West) Germany had quite clearly set itself on a different path from that which resulted in the earlier disasters.
    No it hadn't. It had had its whole economy restructured and rebuilt by the Western powers under their direct control and with vast sums of US money.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    jayfdee said:

    Yes, not great news at all. Not decisive but still No which I think will now lead to Merkel putting her foot down and forcing Greece out of the Euro. Let us hope a humanitarian crisis in Greece does not occur but the signs are not hopeful!

    But the French are desperate for Greece to stay in the euro. They fear contagion, etc. And French banks are owed almost as much, by Greece, as German banks.

    Amongst other things this could provoke a Paris-Berlin showdown.

    *knits by guillotine*
    I doubt that. Germany will want Greece to stay in the Euro too. What they don't want is for the Greek government to renege on the debts. A Syriza government could (and probably will) fall, to be replaced by someone more realistic and competent. A Grexit, by contrast, is a one-way road that would render national debts absolutely unaffordable (if there were a 50% devaluation, that implies the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 175% to 350% and while some countries have coped with 200%+, I'm not aware of any example of a country successfully paying down 300%+).

    My impression is that the CDU government is no longer prepared to work with Tsipras and his colleagues but would be prepared to work with someone else. That will need a carrot later as well as a stick now.
    The Germans have selective memories. They forget that in 1953 Greece was one of hhe creditor nations that agreed a 50% reduction in German debt along with incredibly generous repayment options on the remaining debt.
    When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.
    It doesn't matter how badly Greece has behaved, right now Greece is a spinning hand grenade in the corner of a crowded room - the eurozone - and it is about to go off.

    Someone *could* pick it up and throw it out of the window, but they might kill themselves, and everyone in the room, and they might not even succeed, and if they do succeed they might kill people outside

    = ejection from the eurozone

    The alternative is to smother it with something. Jump on it with a blanket. Absorb the pain. Horrible for whoever does it. But arguably better than the alternative.

    = debt write off

    That all depends on how well quarantined the Eurozone is from a debt default. At the moment, Greece is playing with a grenade in its own kitchen. If it goes off, it'll devastate its own house but bar a few broken windows won't damage the rest of the street all that much.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.

    He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.

    And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....

    It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).

    Cat~pigeons.
    Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.

    If this result is confirmed, we find out a lot more about what the EU really is and isn't. All this talk of solidarity and togetherness we have heard for years is going to be put to the test. Will the EU let Greece go under and leave the Greek people in total penury? If it does, who wants to be a part of such an institution? Not me. The next few weeks and months could have a profound affect on our referendum. If you are on the left, why would you vote to stay in if the EU lets Greece go to the wall?

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GIN1138 said:





    When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.

    Germany did bring quite a lot of that on itself though...

    Granted, but the key point is that at the time of the debt write-off (West) Germany had quite clearly set itself on a different path from that which resulted in the earlier disasters.
    You are right about a different path - they had worked out how to conquer the rest of europe politically instead.

    A better result for the boxheads this time around though. Most of the continent now firmly under control and just some English and Greek partisans fighting in the hills.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,157
    GeoffM said:

    SeanT said:

    H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.

    He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.

    And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....

    It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).

    Cat~pigeons.
    "Nai, we can!"
    "Oh, Okhi, then!"
    You've said this a few times now Sunil.
    Is it a quote from somewhere?
    Google doesn't give me any results.
    You do know some quotes on PB are original material, Geoff :)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.

    He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.

    And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....

    It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).

    Cat~pigeons.
    Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.

    They will be on their knees soon enough!

    Better to live standing on your own two feet, than to die on your knees begging for more money from the hand that you have just bitten.

    One of the funniest things is how on this thread the most right wing commentators cheering on the neo-marxists, because they see damage to mainstream europe. They would be foaming at the mouth if a Syrizia type government was on the cards here. Politics does indeed make for strange bedfellows!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Moses_ said:

    Moses_ said:

    Sandpit said:

    Moses_ said:

    Direct interference in a sovereign nations democratic process by the EU. They are now not even doing this discreetly . They want regime change because they don't like the government that was voted into power. This was recorded Thursday but broadcast today on the day of the referendum !


    Reuters

    The head of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, told German radio that Greece would have to introduce another currency if the “no” vote wins in Sunday's referendum on an aid-for-reforms deal.

    "Is Greece still in the euro after this referendum? That is certainly the case, but if they say ‘no’ they will have to introduce another currency after the referendum because the euro is not available as a means of payment," Schulz told Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio in an interview broadcast on Sunday and taped on Thursday.

    "The moment someone introduces a new currency, they exit the euro zone. Those are the elements that give me some hope that the people will not vote ‘no’ today.”

    His comments are some of the clearest made by a top EU official.

    That's quite disgraceful! The Greek govt are wrong about almost everything, but the one thing they have right is that there's no mechanism for them to be kicked out of the Euro.

    This sort of statement by EU officials doesn't bode well for the British referendum either, although the consequences for a British exit are very different to those in Greece.
    Sounds more like a statement of the bleeding obvious to me! If the Greek banks are without liquidity in Euros then they will have to use something else.

    Of course they will that's not the point.the point is the arrogant interference by an unelected official
    In what way is he "unelected"?
    Take a different approach

    I don't want him.... How do I vote him out? Where do I cast my vote directly against him. I can't ....

    That may be acceptable for the EU but That's makes him unelected in my book
    How do you vote Bercow out as Speaker?
    Isn't his role specifically not to take sides in political debate, as the referee rather than advancing the point of any one side?

    He is also an MP, he can be voted out in the usual manner at an election.
    Indeed - someone else suggested Cameron, which is a better parallel. Schultz is a German MEP, who has been elected by the left-wing group of MEPs to be their candidate for President. That's all he is - President of the EU Parliament (hence my Speaker parallel) not some spokesman for the European demos.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    If he now gets a significantly better deal than had been previously offered, it was a dangerously risky gamble, an insanely risky gamble, but would have paid off.

    If Merkel and Co. cave in to Syriza, there will be almighty hell to pay. Politically. Economically.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.

    He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.

    And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....

    It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).

    Cat~pigeons.
    Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.

    why would you vote to stay in if the EU lets Greece go to the wall?

    The Greeks are doing their part to drive themselves into the wall however.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,157
    Leonidas-Tsipras: SPARTANS! What is YOUR profession?

    Greeks: Unemployed! Unemployed! Unemployed!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Sandpit said:

    weejonnie said:

    You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.

    Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.

    Of course they're popular.

    They're popular because the Greeks tried the other way and it did not work. When you leave a people hopeless this is what you get if you do not take their votes away. The whole thing is a massive indictment not of Greek voters but of the elites who created the situation in the first place and who are completely shielded from its consequences.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    SeanT said:

    Sandpit said:

    weejonnie said:

    You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.

    Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.

    Of course they're popular.
    Syriza have gambled that Europe will blink before the Greeks, and offer debt relief, fearing Greek economic implosion, or the Seven Plagues of Grexit.

    As of this evening, it not at all clear that Syriza have played things wrong.
    Merkel's and Schauble's voters and the German tabloids like Bild would never forgive them if they caved in now
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2015
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited July 2015
    Duncan Weldon @DuncanWeldon - 15% counted and 60-40 to no.

    Only 4 days ago it was neck and neck in the polls - About as accurate as GE2015 then :lol:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,662
    SeanT said:

    Sandpit said:

    weejonnie said:

    You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.

    Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.

    Of course they're popular.
    Syriza have gambled that Europe will blink before the Greeks, and offer debt relief, fearing Greek economic implosion, or the Seven Plagues of Grexit.

    As of this evening, it not at all clear that Syriza have played things wrong.
    Nor is it clear they have played it right. What happens if the eurozone does not blink, and banks do not open tomorrow... Or Tuesday...

    And what if Greece cannot import essential food, or fuel?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    jayfdee said:

    HYUFD said:

    As voting closes first polls suggest a narrow No in Greece it seems
    Yes - 48.5%
    No - 51.5% (MEGA channel)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb

    That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.
    Yes, not great news at all. Not decisive but still No which I think will now lead to Merkel putting her foot down and forcing Greece out of the Euro. Let us hope a humanitarian crisis in Greece does not occur but the signs are not hopeful!
    But the French are desperate for Greece to stay in the euro. They fear contagion, etc. And French banks are owed almost as much, by Greece, as German banks.

    Amongst other things this could provoke a Paris-Berlin showdown.

    *knits by guillotine*
    Indeed, their is a cultural difference between the Socialist Government in France and Hollande which has sympathy with its Mediterranean cousins and the Teutonic Conservative Government in Germany
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    Sandpit said:

    weejonnie said:

    You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.

    Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.

    Of course they're popular.
    Syriza have gambled that Europe will blink before the Greeks, and offer debt relief, fearing Greek economic implosion, or the Seven Plagues of Grexit.

    As of this evening, it not at all clear that Syriza have played things wrong.
    Merkel's and Schauble's voters and the German tabloids like Bild would never forgive them if they caved in now
    Merkel's worst nightmare - an international issue she won't be able to kick down the road a little longer?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Merkel's and Schauble's voters and the German tabloids like Bild would never forgive them if they caved in now

    not to mention the markets.....once this precedent is set any country could cite Greece as an example of how they should be treated. Stay in the euro on easy terms. Haircuts for investors. Let someone else pay.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.

    He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.

    And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....

    It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).

    Cat~pigeons.
    Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.

    They will be on their knees soon enough!

    Better to live standing on your own two feet, than to die on your knees begging for more money from the hand that you have just bitten.

    One of the funniest things is how on this thread the most right wing commentators cheering on the neo-marxists, because they see damage to mainstream europe. They would be foaming at the mouth if a Syrizia type government was on the cards here. Politics does indeed make for strange bedfellows!
    What is not funny is seeing Eurofanatics like yourself egging on the EU to destroy a sovereign country for the sake of the European ideal. It tells us all we need to know about the democratic deficit of both the EU and it's supporters.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Any chance of a military coup next week when the banks run out of money?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    GIN1138 said:





    When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.

    Germany did bring quite a lot of that on itself though...

    Granted, but the key point is that at the time of the debt write-off (West) Germany had quite clearly set itself on a different path from that which resulted in the earlier disasters.
    No it hadn't. It had had its whole economy restructured and rebuilt by the Western powers under their direct control and with vast sums of US money.
    Greece was a major recipient of Marshall aid too, as well as military aid from both USA and UK:

    http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1317677/
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690

    GIN1138 said:





    When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.

    Germany did bring quite a lot of that on itself though...

    Granted, but the key point is that at the time of the debt write-off (West) Germany had quite clearly set itself on a different path from that which resulted in the earlier disasters.
    No it hadn't. It had had its whole economy restructured and rebuilt by the Western powers under their direct control and with vast sums of US money.
    Greece was a major recipient of Marshall aid too, as well as military aid from both USA and UK:

    http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1317677/
    Indeed. But Greece was also a creditor nation who did the right thing for the future and forgave large amounts of German debt. Which is the point you are ignoring.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.

    He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.

    And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....

    It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).

    Cat~pigeons.
    Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.

    They will be on their knees soon enough!

    Better to live standing on your own two feet, than to die on your knees begging for more money from the hand that you have just bitten.

    One of the funniest things is how on this thread the most right wing commentators cheering on the neo-marxists, because they see damage to mainstream europe. They would be foaming at the mouth if a Syrizia type government was on the cards here. Politics does indeed make for strange bedfellows!
    What is not funny is seeing Eurofanatics like yourself egging on the EU to destroy a sovereign country for the sake of the European ideal. It tells us all we need to know about the democratic deficit of both the EU and it's supporters.
    I am not egging on the EU to destroy a sovereign country. That is your position in supportting the neo-marxists of Syrizia. I want Greece to vote Yes and accept the IMF package.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Greek islands coming out strongly in favour of No.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    GIN1138 said:





    When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.

    Germany did bring quite a lot of that on itself though...

    Granted, but the key point is that at the time of the debt write-off (West) Germany had quite clearly set itself on a different path from that which resulted in the earlier disasters.

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.

    He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.

    And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....

    It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).

    Cat~pigeons.
    Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.

    They will be on their knees soon enough!

    Better to live standing on your own two feet, than to die on your knees begging for more money from the hand that you have just bitten.

    One of the funniest things is how on this thread the most right wing commentators cheering on the neo-marxists, because they see damage to mainstream europe. They would be foaming at the mouth if a Syrizia type government was on the cards here. Politics does indeed make for strange bedfellows!
    My enemies enemy is my friend?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2015
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Greece has already had large amounts of debt forgiven, has it not? I don't doubt that realistically they need even more to be forgiven, but the rhetoric seems to be that they have not had any assistance whatsoever and have done everything they have been asked, reasonable or not. Which doesn't seem the case.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    GIN1138 said:





    When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.

    Germany did bring quite a lot of that on itself though...

    Granted, but the key point is that at the time of the debt write-off (West) Germany had quite clearly set itself on a different path from that which resulted in the earlier disasters.
    No it hadn't. It had had its whole economy restructured and rebuilt by the Western powers under their direct control and with vast sums of US money.
    Greece was a major recipient of Marshall aid too, as well as military aid from both USA and UK:

    http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1317677/
    Indeed. But Greece was also a creditor nation who did the right thing for the future and forgave large amounts of German debt. Which is the point you are ignoring.
    I have never denied that the Greeks participated in the debt forgiveness of Germany. Your Europhobia blinds you.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Sandpit said:

    weejonnie said:

    You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.

    Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.

    Of course they're popular.
    Syriza have gambled that Europe will blink before the Greeks, and offer debt relief, fearing Greek economic implosion, or the Seven Plagues of Grexit.

    As of this evening, it not at all clear that Syriza have played things wrong.
    Nor is it clear they have played it right. What happens if the eurozone does not blink, and banks do not open tomorrow... Or Tuesday...

    And what if Greece cannot import essential food, or fuel?
    It will be the beginning of the end of the whole EU project.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,045
    SeanT said:

    Sandpit said:

    weejonnie said:

    You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.

    Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.

    Of course they're popular.
    Syriza have gambled that Europe will blink before the Greeks, and offer debt relief, fearing Greek economic implosion, or the Seven Plagues of Grexit.

    As of this evening, it not at all clear that Syriza have played things wrong.
    Indeed. Looks like next week will be even more interesting than last week if the result goes as well for Syriza as it is looking now.
    20: 37 20% counted, No 60.5%
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Is a Greek-less Eurozone strengthened or weakened?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,157
    Great to see the plucky Greeks standing up the the EU/IMF bully boys!
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    "Capt. Nately: You're a shameful opportunist! What you don't understand is that it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.

    Old man in whorehouse: You have it backwards. It's better to live on your feet than to die on your knees. I know." Catch 22
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.

    He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.

    And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....

    It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).

    Cat~pigeons.
    Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.

    They will be on their knees soon enough!

    Better to live standing on your own two feet, than to die on your knees begging for more money from the hand that you have just bitten.

    One of the funniest things is how on this thread the most right wing commentators cheering on the neo-marxists, because they see damage to mainstream europe. They would be foaming at the mouth if a Syrizia type government was on the cards here. Politics does indeed make for strange bedfellows!
    What is not funny is seeing Eurofanatics like yourself egging on the EU to destroy a sovereign country for the sake of the European ideal. It tells us all we need to know about the democratic deficit of both the EU and it's supporters.
    I am not egging on the EU to destroy a sovereign country. That is your position in supportting the neo-marxists of Syrizia. I want Greece to vote Yes and accept the IMF package.
    Which the former head of the IMF bailout group had already said will do nothing to solve Greece’s problems. Indeed it will only make them worse. Any deal which did not include a massive reduction in debt is a failure before it starts. We realised that with Germany in 1953 and there are plenty of non-left wing commentators and experts who know that now. It seems it is only those who want to see Greece suffer and fail who refuse to accept this.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Robert Peston saying bankers now believe the best move for Greece is to leave the Euro and return to the Drachma
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    runnymede said:

    Greece was occupied for four years and economically devastated. By Germany.

    So were a lot of other countries. Germany was rewarded for that with enormous debt relief.

    Post WW11 debt relief for Germany was influenced by the catastrophic result of Versailles Treaty post WW1 and the fear of Russian tanks in the Eastern half of Germany.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    "Capt. Nately: You're a shameful opportunist! What you don't understand is that it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.

    Old man in whorehouse: You have it backwards. It's better to live on your feet than to die on your knees. I know." Catch 22

    I knew that I read that somewhere, ;-)
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    How long before the EU demands a second referendum?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,157
    chestnut said:

    Is a Greek-less Eurozone strengthened or weakened?

    Kiss the Hun, Kill the Euro?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    HYUFD said:

    Robert Peston saying bankers now believe the best move for Greece is to leave the Euro and return to the Drachma

    They would, wouldn't they.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987

    Duncan Weldon @DuncanWeldon - 15% counted and 60-40 to no.

    Only 4 days ago it was neck and neck in the polls - About as accurate as GE2015 then :lol:

    No have led most polls, it is the late swing the pollsters have again failed to pick up
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,045

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.

    He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.

    And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....

    It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).

    Cat~pigeons.
    Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.

    If this result is confirmed, we find out a lot more about what the EU really is and isn't. All this talk of solidarity and togetherness we have heard for years is going to be put to the test. Will the EU let Greece go under and leave the Greek people in total penury? If it does, who wants to be a part of such an institution? Not me. The next few weeks and months could have a profound affect on our referendum. If you are on the left, why would you vote to stay in if the EU lets Greece go to the wall?
    That's a really insightful point. Up until now the main opposition to the EU (in this country at least) has been from those on the right of the political spectrum.

    If Greece is hung out to dry by the unelected bureaucrats in the coming weeks and months, will there be a left wing resurgence calling for the UK to leave the EU?

    Will we get to see Jeremy Corbyn and Daniel Hannan sharing a stage for the No campaign..?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Fill high the bowl with Samian wine!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    Sandpit said:

    weejonnie said:

    You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.

    Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.

    Of course they're popular.
    Syriza have gambled that Europe will blink before the Greeks, and offer debt relief, fearing Greek economic implosion, or the Seven Plagues of Grexit.

    As of this evening, it not at all clear that Syriza have played things wrong.
    Merkel's and Schauble's voters and the German tabloids like Bild would never forgive them if they caved in now
    Merkel's worst nightmare - an international issue she won't be able to kick down the road a little longer?
    Yes, she will have to stand firm on this
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited July 2015
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Sandpit said:

    weejonnie said:

    You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.

    Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.

    Of course they're popular.
    Syriza have gambled that Europe will blink before the Greeks, and offer debt relief, fearing Greek economic implosion, or the Seven Plagues of Grexit.

    As of this evening, it not at all clear that Syriza have played things wrong.
    Nor is it clear they have played it right. What happens if the eurozone does not blink, and banks do not open tomorrow... Or Tuesday...

    And what if Greece cannot import essential food, or fuel?
    Dunno. Civil war?
    The trick is to sell guns to both sides.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    The more right-wing option doesn't always underpoll!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690

    GIN1138 said:





    When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.

    Germany did bring quite a lot of that on itself though...

    Granted, but the key point is that at the time of the debt write-off (West) Germany had quite clearly set itself on a different path from that which resulted in the earlier disasters.
    No it hadn't. It had had its whole economy restructured and rebuilt by the Western powers under their direct control and with vast sums of US money.
    Greece was a major recipient of Marshall aid too, as well as military aid from both USA and UK:

    http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1317677/
    Indeed. But Greece was also a creditor nation who did the right thing for the future and forgave large amounts of German debt. Which is the point you are ignoring.
    I have never denied that the Greeks participated in the debt forgiveness of Germany. Your Europhobia blinds you.
    No you just conveniently ignored it because it doesn't suit your narrative.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Interesting (and, to my mind, spot on) take on Greece from a former colleague of mine on Bradford Council:

    http://theviewfromcullingworth.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/a-warning-from-greece-crisis-of.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    In lighter news: 'Stoke school bans skirts for being too short'

    The school has received criticism for “stifling” girls’ creativity, but Morris said the girls can express themselves by being “mathematicians, scientists” and writing poetry, not through the length of their skirts

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02w72j3
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.

    He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.

    And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....

    It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).

    Cat~pigeons.
    Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.

    They will be on their knees soon enough!

    Better to live standing on your own two feet, than to die on your knees begging for more money from the hand that you have just bitten.

    One of the funniest things is how on this thread the most right wing commentators cheering on the neo-marxists, because they see damage to mainstream europe. They would be foaming at the mouth if a Syrizia type government was on the cards here. Politics does indeed make for strange bedfellows!
    What is not funny is seeing Eurofanatics like yourself egging on the EU to destroy a sovereign country for the sake of the European ideal. It tells us all we need to know about the democratic deficit of both the EU and it's supporters.
    I am not egging on the EU to destroy a sovereign country. That is your position in supportting the neo-marxists of Syrizia. I want Greece to vote Yes and accept the IMF package.
    Which the former head of the IMF bailout group had already said will do nothing to solve Greece’s problems. Indeed it will only make them worse. Any deal which did not include a massive reduction in debt is a failure before it starts. We realised that with Germany in 1953 and there are plenty of non-left wing commentators and experts who know that now. It seems it is only those who want to see Greece suffer and fail who refuse to accept this.
    But debt forgiveness requires the co-operation of the debtor. If he refuses to mend his ways then it is like handing an unreformed alcoholic a tenner outside an off license.

    If the alcoholic has dried out and is standing outside a supermarket then it is a different story.

    I love Greece and its people and do not want to see it destroyed by Syrizia, egged on by Europhobes.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    Vaguely on topic, were the Greek exit polls worse than the British ones?
    I would have voted OXI if it had come to it, as the plan would have caused great pain without curing the patient, but what an awful 2 options to be presented with.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    Sandpit said:

    weejonnie said:

    You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.

    Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.

    Of course they're popular.
    Syriza have gambled that Europe will blink before the Greeks, and offer debt relief, fearing Greek economic implosion, or the Seven Plagues of Grexit.

    As of this evening, it not at all clear that Syriza have played things wrong.
    Merkel's and Schauble's voters and the German tabloids like Bild would never forgive them if they caved in now
    Of course. Horrible optics for Merkel. Yet the alternatives - Grexit, or an attempt to force Greeks to overthrow Tsipras by literally starving the entire country, are not obviously superior.

    I do not believe (unlike David Herdson) that Europe is well insulated from Grexit. Yes the immediate economic consequences could be absorbed easily enough by the rest of the EU, but the political chaos could be horrendous.

    The markets will clearly suspect that the euro's days are numbered, and turn on the next low hanging fruit. Portugal. Spain. Italy. Then there's the damage to the EU as a whole. As an irreversible "project".
    Certainly it would be a blow to the Eurozone if Greece left, but an even worse blow would be if it stayed and got everything it wanted that would only lead Podemos, FN etc to make the same demands
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Je suis Bubble 'n' Squeak.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.

    He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.

    And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....

    It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).

    Cat~pigeons.
    Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.

    If this result is confirmed, we find out a lot more about what the EU really is and isn't. All this talk of solidarity and togetherness we have heard for years is going to be put to the test. Will the EU let Greece go under and leave the Greek people in total penury? If it does, who wants to be a part of such an institution? Not me. The next few weeks and months could have a profound affect on our referendum. If you are on the left, why would you vote to stay in if the EU lets Greece go to the wall?
    That's a really insightful point. Up until now the main opposition to the EU (in this country at least) has been from those on the right of the political spectrum.

    If Greece is hung out to dry by the unelected bureaucrats in the coming weeks and months, will there be a left wing resurgence calling for the UK to leave the EU?

    Will we get to see Jeremy Corbyn and Daniel Hannan sharing a stage for the No campaign..?
    I agree. If the EU lets Greece go to the wall, I will reconsider my support for the EU in the UK referendum.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Robert Peston saying bankers now believe the best move for Greece is to leave the Euro and return to the Drachma

    If I were Greek that outcome would tip me into suicidality.

    It would mean the last four years of hideous austerity were for nothing, the drop of 26% of GDP was for NOTHING.

    They could have exited the euro in 2011, taken the anticipated 30% fall in GDP, and by now they would be vigorously growing again.

    As it is, if they exit now they will take a second sucker punch. And the agony of 2011-2015 will be rendered pointless.
    Prior Investment Fallacy.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The population of Greece is going to drop rather heavily in the next few months IMO as the well-educated relocate to northern Europe and elsewhere.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,157
    edited July 2015

    GIN1138 said:





    When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.

    Germany did bring quite a lot of that on itself though...

    Granted, but the key point is that at the time of the debt write-off (West) Germany had quite clearly set itself on a different path from that which resulted in the earlier disasters.
    No it hadn't. It had had its whole economy restructured and rebuilt by the Western powers under their direct control and with vast sums of US money.
    Greece was a major recipient of Marshall aid too, as well as military aid from both USA and UK:

    http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1317677/
    It was Britain wot liberated Greece from the Nazis in 1944 - with Stalin's approval, he did NOT aid the Communists in the Civil War from 1946-49.
  • SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Robert Peston saying bankers now believe the best move for Greece is to leave the Euro and return to the Drachma

    If I were Greek that outcome would tip me into suicidality.

    It would mean the last four years of hideous austerity were for nothing, the drop of 26% of GDP was for NOTHING.

    They could have exited the euro in 2011, taken the anticipated 30% fall in GDP, and by now they would be vigorously growing again.

    As it is, if they exit now they will take a second sucker punch. And the agony of 2011-2015 will be rendered pointless.
    But, this is for the best for them. The Euro was holding them down. They may have a rough 18 - 24 months and then grow. We can always divert a billion of our aid budget for basics for them.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    runnymede said:

    How long before the EU demands a second referendum?

    How long before the Greeks demand a second referendum?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    West Germany received debt forgiveness when it was officially still under military occupation by Allied Powers, including the UK, who therefore had a significant role in guaranteeing the correct direction of the country. Needless to say, Greece is not in a similar situation. Another difference is that Germany was never again going to spend its money in the same way it did while running up the debts, whereas Greece definitely would.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Barnesian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.

    He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.

    And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....

    It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).

    Cat~pigeons.
    Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.

    If this result is confirmed, we find out a lot more about what the EU really is and isn't. All this talk of solidarity and togetherness we have heard for years is going to be put to the test. Will the EU let Greece go under and leave the Greek people in total penury? If it does, who wants to be a part of such an institution? Not me. The next few weeks and months could have a profound affect on our referendum. If you are on the left, why would you vote to stay in if the EU lets Greece go to the wall?
    That's a really insightful point. Up until now the main opposition to the EU (in this country at least) has been from those on the right of the political spectrum.

    If Greece is hung out to dry by the unelected bureaucrats in the coming weeks and months, will there be a left wing resurgence calling for the UK to leave the EU?

    Will we get to see Jeremy Corbyn and Daniel Hannan sharing a stage for the No campaign..?
    I agree. If the EU lets Greece go to the wall, I will reconsider my support for the EU in the UK referendum.

    Who would want to be part of it? Solidarity, my arse.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,388
    Not near a telly. What's it like on the BBC News Channel? A lot of people crying into their moussaka no doubt? ;)
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.

    He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.

    And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....

    It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).

    Cat~pigeons.
    Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.

    If this result is confirmed, we find out a lot more about what the EU really is and isn't. All this talk of solidarity and togetherness we have heard for years is going to be put to the test. Will the EU let Greece go under and leave the Greek people in total penury? If it does, who wants to be a part of such an institution? Not me. The next few weeks and months could have a profound affect on our referendum. If you are on the left, why would you vote to stay in if the EU lets Greece go to the wall?
    That's a really insightful point. Up until now the main opposition to the EU (in this country at least) has been from those on the right of the political spectrum.

    If Greece is hung out to dry by the unelected bureaucrats in the coming weeks and months, will there be a left wing resurgence calling for the UK to leave the EU?

    Will we get to see Jeremy Corbyn and Daniel Hannan sharing a stage for the No campaign..?
    Nigel Farage in a recent speech mentioned about the left staying to realise and wake up to the failed euracracy project.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AndyJS said:

    The population of Greece is going to drop rather heavily in the next few months IMO as the well-educated relocate to northern Europe and elsewhere.

    The only people left will be the pensioners - ironically who polled for Yes!

    Mass emigration is not going to help the Greek economy recover.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,157

    Je suis Bubble 'n' Squeak.

    Je suis Leonidas!
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    GeoffM said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Sandpit said:

    weejonnie said:

    You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.

    Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.

    Of course they're popular.
    Syriza have gambled that Europe will blink before the Greeks, and offer debt relief, fearing Greek economic implosion, or the Seven Plagues of Grexit.

    As of this evening, it not at all clear that Syriza have played things wrong.
    Nor is it clear they have played it right. What happens if the eurozone does not blink, and banks do not open tomorrow... Or Tuesday...

    And what if Greece cannot import essential food, or fuel?
    Dunno. Civil war?
    The trick is to sell guns to both sides.
    ..... But the ammunition only to the side you want to win
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Robert Peston saying bankers now believe the best move for Greece is to leave the Euro and return to the Drachma

    If I were Greek that outcome would tip me into suicidality.

    It would mean the last four years of hideous austerity were for nothing, the drop of 26% of GDP was for NOTHING.

    They could have exited the euro in 2011, taken the anticipated 30% fall in GDP, and by now they would be vigorously growing again.

    As it is, if they exit now they will take a second sucker punch. And the agony of 2011-2015 will be rendered pointless.
    But, this is for the best for them. The Euro was holding them down. They may have a rough 18 - 24 months and then grow. We can always divert a billion of our aid budget for basics for them.
    Latvia is growing quickly, in the euro. The euro isn't holding Sweden down, and they manufactured a recession all on their own with abysmal interest rate hikes. Devaluation will not solve the problem of how to earn foreign currency; if you devalue just to reduce your tourism income per visitor in international terms, well, you need a lot more tourists to buy the same amount of oil or penicillin.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    jayfdee said:

    Yes, not great news at all. Not decisive but still No which I think will now lead to Merkel putting her foot down and forcing Greece out of the Euro. Let us hope a humanitarian crisis in Greece does not occur but the signs are not hopeful!

    But the French are desperate for Greece to stay in the euro. They fear contagion, etc. And French banks are owed almost as much, by Greece, as German banks.

    Amongst other things this could provoke a Paris-Berlin showdown.

    *knits by guillotine*
    I doubt that. Germany will want Greece to stay in the Euro too. What they don't want is for the Greek government to renege on the debts. A Syriza government could (and probably will) fall, to be replaced by someone more realistic and competent. A Grexit, by contrast, is a one-way road that would render national debts absolutely unaffordable (if there were a 50% devaluation, that implies the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 175% to 350% and while some countries have coped with 200%+, I'm not aware of any example of a country successfully paying down 300%+).

    My impression is that the CDU government is no longer prepared to work with Tsipras and his colleagues but would be prepared to work with someone else. That will need a carrot later as well as a stick now.
    The Germans have selective memories. They forget that in 1953 Greece was one of hhe creditor nations that agreed a 50% reduction in German debt along with incredibly generous repayment options on the remaining debt.
    When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.
    Of course. All Germany did was start a genocidal war that killed 60 million people. No where near as bad as daring to upset the EU and get into financial trouble aided and abetted by the rest of the EU.

    I suggest you need a serious reality check.
    I suggest you do. Germany paid the price for WWII in the destruction of the country. The world paid the price for demanding punitive and endless reparations from Germany after WWI and learned the lesson. Germany learned the lesson of its past and committed to democracy.

    By contrast, Greece has not only failed to learn from its past economic errors but wants to continue them to an even greater extent. You forgive those that show repentance, which Greece clearly has no intention of doing.

    Obviously the two are not comparable in scale (and I never suggested they were) but then I didn't start the comparison.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,516
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    jayfdee said:

    HYUFD said:

    As voting closes first polls suggest a narrow No in Greece it seems
    Yes - 48.5%
    No - 51.5% (MEGA channel)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb

    That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.


    *knits by guillotine*


    My impression is that the CDU government is no longer prepared to work with Tsipras and his colleagues but would be prepared to work with someone else. That will need a carrot later as well as a stick now.
    The Germans have selective memories. They forget that in 1953 Greece was one of hhe creditor nations that agreed a 50% reduction in German debt along with incredibly generous repayment options on the remaining debt.
    When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.
    It doesn't matter how badly Greece has behaved, right now Greece is a spinning hand grenade in the corner of a crowded room - the eurozone - and it is about to go off.

    Someone *could* pick it up and throw it out of the window, but they might kill themselves, and everyone in the room, and they might not even succeed, and if they do succeed they might kill people outside

    = ejection from the eurozone

    The alternative is to smother it with something. Jump on it with a blanket. Absorb the pain. Horrible for whoever does it. But arguably better than the alternative.

    = debt write off

    Should be no more good money thrown after bad. They have borrowed to the hilt , refuse to mend their ways and want to just keep on borrowing. Time to let them fund themselves using their own means.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    hunchman said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.

    He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.

    And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....

    It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).

    Cat~pigeons.
    Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.

    If this result is confirmed, we find out a lot more about what the EU really is and isn't. All this talk of solidarity and togetherness we have heard for years is going to be put to the test. Will the EU let Greece go under and leave the Greek people in total penury? If it does, who wants to be a part of such an institution? Not me. The next few weeks and months could have a profound affect on our referendum. If you are on the left, why would you vote to stay in if the EU lets Greece go to the wall?
    That's a really insightful point. Up until now the main opposition to the EU (in this country at least) has been from those on the right of the political spectrum.

    If Greece is hung out to dry by the unelected bureaucrats in the coming weeks and months, will there be a left wing resurgence calling for the UK to leave the EU?

    Will we get to see Jeremy Corbyn and Daniel Hannan sharing a stage for the No campaign..?
    Nigel Farage in a recent speech mentioned about the left staying to realise and wake up to the failed euracracy project.
    The previous Euro referendum had Tony Benn and Enoch Powell arguing on the same side. Both great orators.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,547
    kle4 said:

    In lighter news: 'Stoke school bans skirts for being too short'

    The school has received criticism for “stifling” girls’ creativity, but Morris said the girls can express themselves by being “mathematicians, scientists” and writing poetry, not through the length of their skirts

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02w72j3

    Surely, we should ban girls' skirts for not being short enough.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,157
    tpfkar said:

    Vaguely on topic, were the Greek exit polls worse than the British ones?
    I would have voted OXI if it had come to it, as the plan would have caused great pain without curing the patient, but what an awful 2 options to be presented with.

    2010 and 2015 UK Exit polls were actually rather accurate, especially 2010.
This discussion has been closed.