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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : June 30th 2015
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : June 30th 2015
Pentyrch on Cardiff (Con defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 46, Liberal Democrats 16, Conservatives 7, Independents 4, Plaid Cymru 2 (Labour majority of 17)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Conservative 772 (54%), Labour 413 (29%), Plaid Cymru 171 (12%), Green 40 (3%), Liberal Democrat 22 (2%)
Candidates duly nominated:
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Fascinating twists in Cardifff, I had assumed such a place would always have been Labour to its core with no deviation, but not so it seems, with 2008 looking particularly interesting. Hopefully it will return to competitiveness in the fullness of time.
FPT: Quelle surprise, a lot of hot air and brinkmanship to probably result in a fudged deal which almost certainly won't address core issues and won't be met anyway, but they'll agree to pretend they will if it gets footage of Greeks queuing at bank machines off the tv screens for 5 minutes.
Offtopic but on the news, are we about to see Greek fudge as a new delicacy?
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/deputy-prime-ministers-office
Good stuff as ever Mr Hayfield. And quite unexpected.
(Quiet on here tonight! Do we all have Greece fatigue?)
https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/615912759952158720
By elections on a Tuesday? I blame the Greek effect. We are all going mad !
As Cardiff, so I read only today, has the fastest growing population Percentage of any city outside of London ( apparently, BBC website I think it was) expect more demographic change as the population is due to go up by another 80k to well above 400k in the next dozen years.
Sorry to be so utterly parochial but a local by election gives me an excuse to inform/bore people.
, much though I enjoy politics , the day PB is restricted to bets on politics be will be a sad day.
All politics is local, after all....
Kittel is out of Le Tour (a few days oldnews actually but I missed it). Alexander Kristoff at 6/1 with Paddy Power is very, very, very good value for Stage 2. Pile in.
Can't find odds for Stages 4, 5, 7 but if anyone sees them, take Kristoff on anything over 3s. (Or Cavendish over 3s but you won't get that with a UK bookie).
This also makes the 10/11 odds on Peter Sagan for Green even more attractive.
I posted a reply, and AS USUAL there was a new thread! :-)
You've read an awful lot of Hellenic Puns?
I spent today in Sheffield, incidentally.
Talking about Whitchurch, Michael Roberts was my MP when i lived there. Decent MP, despite being a Tory, who sadly died suddenly in the House of Parliament in 1983. Interestingly it is apparently illegal to die in the House, so he was declared dead in hospital..
Cardiff's a good, growing City. Just needs a a premiership team.
My pleasure, thought PB might be just the place to find some other folk who appreciate that kind of thing! Just had a startling revelation - is it so quiet on here on a fine summer evening because EVERYBODY ELSE HAS GOT A LIFE, DAMMIT? I wondered if anyone would be staying up for an "IMF deadline countdown" but it seems pretty clear that not all that much is going to kick off and no final twists in the drama seem likely (interesting guide to what happens at midnight from politico, it certainly won't be an instant apocalypse, just another shudder in the train wreck). Maybe people are saving their sleep for the World Cup semifinal on Thursday (i.e. Wednesday night, which is as confusing as seeing Harry on a Tuesday); everybody - except those batting against the Mitchells this summer - loves a bit of 90s nostalgia.
FPT in case anybody is stuck for something to do this evening, a highly unusual MBE TV recommendation. "Keys to the Castle" was an award-winning BBC2 documentary from last year about an aging couple, relics of a bygone era, living in a Scottish castle in the highlands. They are finally facing up to the fact they are going to have to sell up and move out - to a retirement destination they charmingly call a "horizontal house". It's a bit poignant but the castle is gorgeous, proper property porn gold, and the couple are wonderful. The wife, who has essentially had to take charge in recent years, is just made for TV - all marbles thoroughly switched on, and as candid as she is eccentric. The pace of revelations is well-structured and I found the whole thing very moving. It's been repeated on BBC4 recently so has re-emerged on iplayer.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01nnztr
Or, if you would rather spend 40 minutes geeking out, this is brilliant (now with independent confirmation from a 19th century Prime Minister of my objectivity on this point!). It's a US Navy guide to analogue fire control computers, back in the day before it was done electronically. There were mechanical computers installed in fighting ships as early as World War One, but this film dates from the 1950s when such mechanical systems had reached the peak of their complexity - the idea is that you don't aim your shells straight at the target, since you need to account for your ship's course, that of your opponent, the wind speed, and you also need to set your gun at the right angle for your shell to traverse the correct range.
I particularly enjoyed the mechanical integrators and multipliers used in the final third of the film.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1i-dnAH9Y4
http://www.heraldscotland.com/sport/football/partick-thistle-unveil-new-home-kit-for-third-premiership-campaign.130534807
Hmm, how screwed does a country need to be before it gets a single 'C' risk grade?
Venus and Jupiter just visible very very close together ( less than a moon width ) in the western sky. Grab a glass of wine and look up and admire. You might see the odd bat flitting about too @reallife
Never stopped people giving them money before in recent times. Really, the Greek people look set for suffering no matter what happens, so probably best someone forces a clean break rather than drag things out, pretending they'll stick to new terms (or if they are even able to).
With the brinkmanship going on so intently in the past few days, they'd better not pretend a harsh response was a possibility if it happens though - the whole point seems to have been to take things to the edge and gamble the other side would back off, it's fine to be angry if they don't, but part of the point was to dare them to do it (and hope they don't).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33325886
Somalia, Sudan and Zimbabwe are currently the only three countries behind on their IMF payments, apparently, so Greece is in fine company!
The IMF on the other hand, has the pair of kings. They know they're going to win the hand and the other two are bluffing.
The best thing Greece can do now is to fold and work with the IMF against the EU/ECB. Instead they seem determined to have a fight with both their opponents simultaneously.
The down-side is some potential for spectacular thunder storms....
But I saw them together last week, albeit a bit further apart.
Good night, if you can manage it.
If Greece agrees to a deal during the actual leap-second, will the universe collapse in on itself and we all wake up tomorrow on June 30th?
EDIT: (shit - did I just press "send"????)
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/30/west-racist-wars-bombs-radicalisation-frankie-boyle
We live in a country where posting “Let’s riot or something bruv!” on Facebook will get you a couple of years in prison, while writing a column saying we should bomb Syria is practically an entrance exam for public intellectuals.
Now, since he's started trying to 'do' politics, he's become a poor-man's George Monboit. It's embarassing.
Now THIS is the best ever CIF piece:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/11/milifan-prime-minister-ed-miliband
Strong suggestions of forceful Jordanian and Turkish intervention in Syria, in an active incursion kind of manner, near their respective borders. The Turkish military so far has been stalling but its thought has now accepted their political masters instructions, how enthusiastically remains to be seen.
We have heard talk about Turkey before and it never quite happened but certainly things look closer this time to becoming reality.
The Israelis appear also to have some interesting plans.
The Israelis seem to have some decent kit, and know how to use it (in conventional warfare, at least), but how potent are the Turks/Jordanians?
There would be no surprise if any executed Israeli actions were co-incidentally helpful to the Jordanians.
I can't understand it. Why aren't you impressed by the quality of thought emanating from 'Live at the Apollo'?
The syrian civil war expanding to a regional war will be the only result.
* screeching sound of tourtured metal as the goal posts are ripped out and moved yet again*
Apparently it's now 20th July when they can't pay the ECB?
And yes CNN is throwing fireworks right now on Greece not paying the IMF.
Goodnight.
I must admit I had wished there had been a little more detail on how they has restored the castle, aside from the few snaps at the end. Although admittedly that was not what the program was about.
People who do tasteful and fitting restorations of old buildings - as opposed to converting them to hotels - always get gold stars in my book. I reckon they rarely get the money or effort back again, but they save the building for another few decades or longer.
If I had a few tens of million pounds (and the rest) going spare, I would rebuild New Slains Castle into a rather large family home. Much of the money would be wasted, but the building deserves it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Slains_Castle
The credit rating agencies have said that they won't recognize a non payment to the ECB as a default.
It's now formally in arrears."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-33284560
Quite agree converting castles to homes rather than hotels if at all possible is the more fitting way to go.
Heartbreaking documentary at the very end. She was one of the most enthralling personalities I've ever seen captured on TV.
USA 2.96
Germany 2.78
Draw 3.25
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/event?id=27477259
To qualify:
USA 2.12
Germany 1.86
(Fitch have said Greece is one level above full default)
Greece is up a certain creek without a paddle if it cannot find anyone to lend it the money it needs. That is what is relevant.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRvyTW-Hi2A
Michigan Republican Primary
Walker – 15%
Bush – 14%
Carson – 14%
Trump – 14%
Rubio – 9%
Huckabee – 8%
Christie – 5%
Cruz – 5%
Paul – 4%
Fiorina – 3%
Kasich – 3%
Santorum – 2%
Graham – 1%
Perry – 1%
Jindal – 0%
Pataki – 0%
Someone Else/Not Sure – 2%
General Election
Clinton – 45%
Paul – 42%
Clinton – 46%
Walker – 42%
Clinton – 47%
Huckabee – 42%
Clinton – 44%
Christie – 38%
Clinton – 46%
Rubio – 40%
Clinton – 49%
Carson – 41%
Clinton – 46%
Fiorina – 38%
Clinton – 47%
Bush – 38%
Clinton – 49%
Cruz – 39%
Clinton – 49%
Trump – 39%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/06/trump-near-top-of-pack-in-michigan-clinton-leads-gop-field.html
1) The Confederate Flag story has now come down I-85 and reached Stone Mountain.
2) Georgia's gasoline tax changes tomorrow - until now the tax has been a percentage of the retail price, but the state government has at last realized that declining prices means less tax revenue. So starting tomorrow, the state of Georgia is levying a flat $0.26 per gallon tax.
I forgot to fill up on the way home
So Republicans are between 2 unelectable choices: Trump and Bush.
If Trump wins Iowa he wins New Hampshire and the nomination.
If Bush loses N.Hampshire he's history.
But in any case Hillary beats them in the customary landslide.
Let the debates decide (I have a feeling that Trump is going to win the debates).
Of more use would be politicians who actually believed in free speech and did not pass bloody silly laws like this one.
I read the "Telegraph" because it's always good to get info. Recently it's become a chore - as the EU situation has got worse, its bias has become more evident and the signal-to-noise ratio has gotten worse. Imagine my surprise therefore when I read this article about how fast to change a currency: well researched, sticks to the point, informative.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11708576/How-do-you-change-a-currency-fast.html
Those of us who can remember when BBC science programs were well written, presented and informative (instead of Brian ******* Cox wittering) may be interested to see this link of "Tomorrow's World" in 1994. Apparently something called "the information superhighway" will revolutionise our lives...:-)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8cnP-RtRHU
https://vine.co/v/eJlMdT9pQ1F
As does Vice President Biden
https://twitter.com/VP?lang=en-gb