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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : June 30th 2015

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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    In England in 2015, you can now be enjoined by a High Court Judge under section 1 of the Anti-social Behaviour, Crime and Policing Act 2014 from marching with a banner stating "No More Mosques", because the learned judge considers your proposed message "absurd and offensive" (see Chief Constable of Bedfordshire Police v Golding [2015] EWHC 1875 (QB), at [13], [16], [23]). The learned judge also suggested that those who proposed to march with a message calling for "No More Churches" would be similarly liable to be restrained on penalty of imprisonment. While the conduct of the defendants in the instant case was no doubt obnoxious, provocative and in some respects unlawful, one does wonder whether or not freedom of speech still exists in this country.

    Wonder? No need to do that. It does not, pure and simple.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I don't know if anyone is here but I got the results of the first poll of the greek referendum and it was after the greek banks closed and is published today by a greek newspaper.
    NO 46%
    YES 37%
    D/K 17%

    The odds for NO at Ladbrokes is a very generous 11/4.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    PPP Michigan GOP Primary and General Election

    Michigan Republican Primary

    Walker – 15%
    Bush – 14%
    Carson – 14%
    Trump – 14%
    Rubio – 9%
    Huckabee – 8%
    Christie – 5%
    Cruz – 5%
    Paul – 4%
    Fiorina – 3%
    Kasich – 3%
    Santorum – 2%
    Graham – 1%
    Perry – 1%
    Jindal – 0%
    Pataki – 0%
    Someone Else/Not Sure – 2%

    General Election

    Clinton – 45%
    Paul – 42%

    Clinton – 46%
    Walker – 42%

    Clinton – 47%
    Huckabee – 42%

    Clinton – 44%
    Christie – 38%

    Clinton – 46%
    Rubio – 40%

    Clinton – 49%
    Carson – 41%

    Clinton – 46%
    Fiorina – 38%

    Clinton – 47%
    Bush – 38%

    Clinton – 49%
    Cruz – 39%

    Clinton – 49%
    Trump – 39%
    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/06/trump-near-top-of-pack-in-michigan-clinton-leads-gop-field.html

    You beaten me to it.
    So Republicans are between 2 unelectable choices: Trump and Bush.

    If Trump wins Iowa he wins New Hampshire and the nomination.
    If Bush loses N.Hampshire he's history.
    But in any case Hillary beats them in the customary landslide.

    Let the debates decide (I have a feeling that Trump is going to win the debates).

    That is, of course, arrant nonsense. With a field as large as the GOP one, which is still growing, the polls at this stage mean virtually nothing, and won't until someone starts to pull ahead as a result of debates, campaigning and actual primary and caucus wins. That said, there is only a few with the infrastructure and financing to mount a serious campaign (although who those will be is also unclear at this stage).

    And any polling match up with Hillary at this stage is going to understate the GOP number and overstate hers for two reasons - her greater name recognition, and her status as presumed nominee.

    I will not be paying too much heed to numbers for the GOP nomination until the campaign proper starts early next year, nor to the general until both nominations are done deals.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Speedy said:

    I don't know if anyone is here but I got the results of the first poll of the greek referendum and it was after the greek banks closed and is published today by a greek newspaper.
    NO 46%
    YES 37%
    D/K 17%

    The odds for NO at Ladbrokes is a very generous 11/4.

    Thanks for posting that. Interesting. Who conducted the poll and how trustworthy is it considered? I have to say, I find the result very surprising and not quite believable.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited July 2015
    MTimT said:

    Speedy said:

    I don't know if anyone is here but I got the results of the first poll of the greek referendum and it was after the greek banks closed and is published today by a greek newspaper.
    NO 46%
    YES 37%
    D/K 17%

    The odds for NO at Ladbrokes is a very generous 11/4.

    Thanks for posting that. Interesting. Who conducted the poll and how trustworthy is it considered? I have to say, I find the result very surprising and not quite believable.
    It was done by ProRata a pollster who got the result of the last greek elections bang on, it predicted an 8% SYRIZA lead and the result was just over an 8% lead.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Greek_legislative_election,_2015

    Goodnight.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Speedy said:

    MTimT said:

    Speedy said:

    I don't know if anyone is here but I got the results of the first poll of the greek referendum and it was after the greek banks closed and is published today by a greek newspaper.
    NO 46%
    YES 37%
    D/K 17%

    The odds for NO at Ladbrokes is a very generous 11/4.

    Thanks for posting that. Interesting. Who conducted the poll and how trustworthy is it considered? I have to say, I find the result very surprising and not quite believable.
    It was done by ProRata a pollster who got the result of the last greek elections bang on, it predicted an 8% SYRIZA lead and the result was just over an 8% lead.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Greek_legislative_election,_2015

    Goodnight.
    Thanks, and good night
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,135
    Speedy said:

    MTimT said:

    Speedy said:

    I don't know if anyone is here but I got the results of the first poll of the greek referendum and it was after the greek banks closed and is published today by a greek newspaper.
    NO 46%
    YES 37%
    D/K 17%

    The odds for NO at Ladbrokes is a very generous 11/4.

    Thanks for posting that. Interesting. Who conducted the poll and how trustworthy is it considered? I have to say, I find the result very surprising and not quite believable.
    It was done by ProRata a pollster who got the result of the last greek elections bang on, it predicted an 8% SYRIZA lead and the result was just over an 8% lead.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Greek_legislative_election,_2015

    Goodnight.
    Gawd, how did our pollsters do so badly??
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    MTimT said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    PPP Michigan GOP Primary and General Election

    Michigan Republican Primary

    Walker – 15%
    Bush – 14%
    Carson – 14%
    Trump – 14%
    Rubio – 9%
    Huckabee – 8%
    Christie – 5%
    Cruz – 5%
    Paul – 4%
    Fiorina – 3%
    Kasich – 3%
    Santorum – 2%
    Graham – 1%
    Perry – 1%
    Jindal – 0%
    Pataki – 0%
    Someone Else/Not Sure – 2%

    General Election

    Clinton – 45%
    Paul – 42%

    Clinton – 46%
    Walker – 42%

    Clinton – 47%
    Huckabee – 42%

    Clinton – 44%
    Christie – 38%

    Clinton – 46%
    Rubio – 40%

    Clinton – 49%
    Carson – 41%

    Clinton – 46%
    Fiorina – 38%

    Clinton – 47%
    Bush – 38%

    Clinton – 49%
    Cruz – 39%

    Clinton – 49%
    Trump – 39%
    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/06/trump-near-top-of-pack-in-michigan-clinton-leads-gop-field.html

    You beaten me to it.
    So Republicans are between 2 unelectable choices: Trump and Bush.

    If Trump wins Iowa he wins New Hampshire and the nomination.
    If Bush loses N.Hampshire he's history.
    But in any case Hillary beats them in the customary landslide.

    Let the debates decide (I have a feeling that Trump is going to win the debates).

    That is, of course, arrant nonsense. With a field as large as the GOP one, which is still growing, the polls at this stage mean virtually nothing, and won't until someone starts to pull ahead as a result of debates, campaigning and actual primary and caucus wins. That said, there is only a few with the infrastructure and financing to mount a serious campaign (although who those will be is also unclear at this stage).

    And any polling match up with Hillary at this stage is going to understate the GOP number and overstate hers for two reasons - her greater name recognition, and her status as presumed nominee.

    I will not be paying too much heed to numbers for the GOP nomination until the campaign proper starts early next year, nor to the general until both nominations are done deals.
    Trump and Bush are hardly short of name recognition.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Speedy said:

    I don't know if anyone is here but I got the results of the first poll of the greek referendum and it was after the greek banks closed and is published today by a greek newspaper.
    NO 46%
    YES 37%
    D/K 17%

    The odds for NO at Ladbrokes is a very generous 11/4.

    Ladbrokes appears to have crashed: "Service Temporarily Unavailable. The server is temporarily unable to service your request due to maintenance downtime or capacity problems. Please try again later." The power of pb!
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Speedy said:

    I don't know if anyone is here but I got the results of the first poll of the greek referendum and it was after the greek banks closed and is published today by a greek newspaper.
    NO 46%
    YES 37%
    D/K 17%

    The odds for NO at Ladbrokes is a very generous 11/4.

    Ladbrokes appears to have crashed: "Service Temporarily Unavailable. The server is temporarily unable to service your request due to maintenance downtime or capacity problems. Please try again later." The power of pb!
    It could be Ladbrokes' crash is due to last night's leap second. If so, one can only imagine it also affected their monitoring system! What a shambles.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    This may be of interest to those who want to turn the tables on the energy suppliers and save money. One warning if you do switch from an existing fixed deal then there may be a charge but the charge may be less than you can save by switching so they say. Available up to the 24th July.

    As always ..... DYOR

    http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-3107222/Could-save-energy-bills-collective-switch.html
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,492

    Speedy said:

    I don't know if anyone is here but I got the results of the first poll of the greek referendum and it was after the greek banks closed and is published today by a greek newspaper.
    NO 46%
    YES 37%
    D/K 17%

    The odds for NO at Ladbrokes is a very generous 11/4.

    Ladbrokes appears to have crashed: "Service Temporarily Unavailable. The server is temporarily unable to service your request due to maintenance downtime or capacity problems. Please try again later." The power of pb!
    It could be Ladbrokes' crash is due to last night's leap second. If so, one can only imagine it also affected their monitoring system! What a shambles.
    I got released from parenting duties last night and escaped down t'pub with a mate who is in charge of IT for an SME that has offices in several countries. The last leap-second change caused them a few minor problems; he's hopeful they've made their systems more robust and this one will not.

    It's not my area, but apparently it's quite hard to get right.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Clever politic? Merkel by deferring a decision until after the Greferendum allows the Greeks to get a taste of what hey might face if they vote no ..... And it might be just working?

    Reuters July 1st

    "A majority of Greeks would vote No to the terms of a proposed bailout deal by foreign lenders but the lead narrowed significantly after banks were closed this week, according to an opinion poll published on Wednesday.

    The poll, by the ProRata institute published in the Efimerida ton Syntatkton newspaper, showed 54 percent of those planning to vote would oppose the bailout against 33 percent in favor. However a breakdown of results between those polled before and after Sunday's decision to close the banks and impose capital controls showed the gap narrowing."

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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited July 2015
    Sky News- Airports Commission recommends a new runway for Heathrow Airport.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited July 2015
    Moses_ said:

    Clever politic? Merkel by deferring a decision until after the Greferendum allows the Greeks to get a taste of what hey might face if they vote no ..... And it might be just working?

    Reuters July 1st

    "A majority of Greeks would vote No to the terms of a proposed bailout deal by foreign lenders but the lead narrowed significantly after banks were closed this week, according to an opinion poll published on Wednesday.

    The poll, by the ProRata institute published in the Efimerida ton Syntatkton newspaper, showed 54 percent of those planning to vote would oppose the bailout against 33 percent in favor. However a breakdown of results between those polled before and after Sunday's decision to close the banks and impose capital controls showed the gap narrowing."

    Even if the Greeks vote yes its an elastoplast at best. They still won't be give any more money than the bare minimum needed to pay their creditors and have no real chance of fixing their economy. As I quoted before..
    A mortal, Frodo, who keeps on of the Great Rings, does not die, but he does not grow or obtain more life, he merely continues, until as last every minute is a weariness.
    Greeks that have not yet been born will grow up in a wrecked economy in which they have no part in the making, they will largely not get any jobs when the leave school, and their resentment will fester. This doesn't sound like the way for a new united states of Europe to be born, it sounds like a recipe for conflict.
    If the Greeks stay in now, I would except an even more fruitcakey party to get elected after a few years of some "conservative" party failing to fix the economy like the last one didn't, as the people despair. Podemas is massively more fruitcakey than SYRIZA so there is definitely precedent.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,278
    edited July 2015

    Speedy said:

    I don't know if anyone is here but I got the results of the first poll of the greek referendum and it was after the greek banks closed and is published today by a greek newspaper.
    NO 46%
    YES 37%
    D/K 17%

    The odds for NO at Ladbrokes is a very generous 11/4.

    Ladbrokes appears to have crashed: "Service Temporarily Unavailable. The server is temporarily unable to service your request due to maintenance downtime or capacity problems. Please try again later." The power of pb!
    It could be Ladbrokes' crash is due to last night's leap second. If so, one can only imagine it also affected their monitoring system! What a shambles.
    I got released from parenting duties last night and escaped down t'pub with a mate who is in charge of IT for an SME that has offices in several countries. The last leap-second change caused them a few minor problems; he's hopeful they've made their systems more robust and this one will not.

    It's not my area, but apparently it's quite hard to get right.
    Morning! The leap second can dramatically affect anything that relies on a really accurate time, such as GPS receivers and stock trading systems (Edit: and bookies' websites, possibly!). Also certain UNIX systems count in seconds past an arbitary date and convert that to the real time, which can mess them up or leave them one second out. Some applications see 23:59:60 in their logs and present an error.

    The last one was only 3 years ago so most people should know how to work around any issues in their systems by now. I did notice that my Mac went from 23:59:59 to 00:00:00 which was annoying, as I wanted to get a screenshot of 23:59:60! But apart from that it's all working fine.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Everything is actually working out just as planned for the Euro-elite. The reason economic union happened was a driver to political union. When the various economic crisis have occurred the answer was always more consolidation, more centralisation, more common policies.

    This is again exactly what we see this time, the Commission is busy telling any national leader that will listen that the answer to the Greek problem, and any future similar problems is a transfer union, a euro-treasury, and the commission having approval on national budgets. Indeed this was the main message in the "five presidents" document published a couple of weeks ago.

    Does anyone outside Brussels seriously think there is an appetite in any of the northern European countries for a transfer union ? What happens when the cash strapped southern countries start moving in that direction and outvote the northern countries in QMV ?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,560
    Dugarbandier He seems to have made an impact with certain elements of the GOP base
This discussion has been closed.