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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How winning a political bet can get you into trouble
I like this story in the Mail on Sunday, Frank Field the Labour MP for Birkenhead and Matthew Taylor, Tony Blair’s former head of policy and who wrote the 2005 Labour manifesto both bet on the Tories winning a majority in May. This has understandably earned the ire of some in the Labour party, who said
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By the way, did we ever find out who was the Glaswegian that took Shadsy for six figures on a Con majority?
Oh, and first!
I think we can agree that was never the case, whatever numbers the Greek Finance Ministry came up with.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birkenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Are £12bn welfare cuts the right thing to do?
Right thing: 40%
Wrong thing: 42%
Tax credits
Govt should restrict people who can claim tax credits: 41%
Should protect tax credits from cuts: 47%
Out-of-work benefits
Should restrict people who can claim out-of-work benefits: 55%
Should protect out-of-work benefits: 34%
Child benefit
Should restrict people who can can claim child benefit: 58%
Should protect child benefit: 34%
Old-age benefits
Should restrict people who can claim old-age benefits: 34%
Should protect old-age benefits: 59%
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7gudda13sb/YG-Archive-Sunday-Times-results-280615.pdf
https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/189707273365487617
If I am going to bet, I make it a rule to bet against my own side. If you win there is some compensation for losing. And if you lose you don't care because you have won. There is absolutely nothing disloyal about it at all.
I don't think they are annoyed he was disloyal. They are annoyed he was right.
1. The Government spends more than it receives and borrows the difference from other Euro governments. But the other Euro governments have finally said they will not lend any more. This means it will not be able to pay its employees or pensioners in due course.
2. Depositors are withdrawing their Euro funds from Greek banks because they are in danger of being converted into less valuable drachma by a dictat from the Greek state .
Until now the European Central Bank has lent the banks the cash to carry on trading but said today that they will not lend any more. This means Greek banks will not be able to pay out depositors who want to withdraw next week nor lend more money to Greek busineses and individuals.
It is the second liquidity crisis which will hit Greece on Monday, well before any referendum in July about accepting the deal offered by Euro governments.
If the Greek governmnet were really anarchic they could get the Greek Central Bank in Athens to print more Euro notes and distribute them to the Greek banks in place of the loans frrom theEuropean Central Bank. That would make things really interesting.
Of course, these anarchic Greek euros would be counterfeit but very difficult to distinguish from valid notes as the only difference would be an invalid reference number.
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane CLP: Andy Burnham and Watson
Dumfries and Galloway: Cooper and Creasy
Greece said it may impose capital controls and keep its banks shut on Monday after creditors refused to extend the country's bailout and savers queued to withdraw cash, taking Athens' standoff with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to a dangerous new level. Greece's banks, kept afloat by emergency central bank funding, are on the front line as Athens moves towards defaulting on a 1.6 billion euros payment due to the IMF on Tuesday.
The European Central Bank said it would not raise the level of emergency funding, adding to the pressure on Greece's banks which have been surviving for the past few weeks on frequent incremental increases to the funding lifeline
Amid political drama in Greece, where a clear majority wants to remain inside the euro, the next few days present a major challenge to the integrity of a 16-year-old currency bloc.
"you can check out anytime you like, ".............. but you can never leave"
Was earning $12m a week from twelve thousand speak easys and prostitution
My previous one was the implosion of Texas Stadium, but ScottP was too dumb to pick up on it
I suspect most of the Greek press will ignore that in favour of lurid headlines involving toothbrush moustaches and swastikas
No doubt the game of "chicken" is to his liking:
From Wikipedia: 'The game of chicken, also known as the hawk-dove game or snowdrift game, is an influential model of conflict for two players in game theory. The principle of the game is that while each player prefers not to yield to the other, the worst possible outcome occurs when both players do not yield.'
additional comment: The game of chicken was used in the James Dean film "Rebel without a Cause". Perhaps Yanni has modelled himself on the protagonist.
As the British troops make their way back to camp after the battle, a group of musicians is playing what is unmistakably "Ashokan Farewell", composed in the 1980s by Jay Ungar and featured in the Ken Burns series "The Civil War".
Oops...
Perhaps Yanni has modelled himself on the protagonist.
He can model himself on whoever he wants, just so long as he doesn't make any more interminable musical specials on TV....
Last thing I remember was running for the door trying to get back to the place I was before..."
The more I look at the lyrics the more I think the Eagles foresaw this whole EU debacle.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Forbes_Nash,_Jr.
European Treaties make provisions for an exit from the EU. They do not make any provisions for an exit from the Eurozone. With good reason, of course, as the indivisibility of our Monetary Union is part of its raison d’ etre. To ask us to phrase the referendum question as a choice involving exit from the Eurozone is to ask us to violate EU Treaties and EU Law. I suggest to anyone who wants us, or anyone else, to hold a referendum on EMU membership to recommend a change in the Treaties.
http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/06/28/as-it-happened-yanis-varoufakis-intervention-during-the-27th-june-2015-eurogroup-meeting/
Well I finally got around to admit that I was the problem.
When I used to put the blame on everybody's shoulders but mine.
All the friends I used to run with are gone, (la la la)
Lord, I hadn't planned on livin' this long. (la la la)
I have to learn to live my life one day at a time!
Perhaps? even so, the Greeks whatever they prefer may just have to "bare the unbearable" as a Japanese Emperor once observed.
As sung by Tsipras while hanging onto the fiscal cliff edge as the final finger nail breaks.
Is there a single proposal in that document that could become a rallying cry for a No vote? I can't see people thinking, "I'd rather leave the Euro than auction the 4G spectrum!"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/24/us-odd-germany-robbery-idUSKBN0P41CG20150624
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann#Game_theory
(as an aside, JvN's most significant innovation was the use of equilibrium theory to develop the philosophy of mutually assured destruction...)
Greece cannot compete with Germany. It's not alone. What are the Greeks to do? They are literally screwed whatever happens.
Labour angry at Frank Field for being right. The scoundrel!
He left out the follow up pertaining to any EU related popular vote - you might need to hold several referenda until you get the right answer.
The EU have the nerve to tell another body to reduce red tape?
So the Greek vote will be on proposals that no longer exist.
- and they say the Germans have no sense of humor.
http://www.newsoftheweird.com/wayne.html
Reuters: chief executive of Piraeus Bank says #Greek banks will not open on Monday.
Might make settling bar bills a tad more difficult...good day not to be on holiday in Greece.
Greek stock exchange will NOT open tomorrow. Doubt banks will either.
Lots of talk about Tax Credits subsidising low pay - eg on This Week on Thurs night. But no distinction made between those with children and those without.
Yes, people on low pay with children are getting huge child tax credits. But people on low pay without children get next to nothing (I know those on very low pay get working tax credit but it is peanuts compared to child tax credits and you get nothing even on a salary of £15k).
So it is not as simple as saying reduce tax credits and get employers to make up the difference because those with and without children are being treated completely differently.
And employers, obviously, do not pay differing wages depending upon whether the employee has children.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-06-24/donald-trump-the-edsel-ford-fung-of-candidates-tells-baltimore-it-s-got-no-spirit-none-
The best bit:
" Then, he had dinner—chicken, rice, and green beans—and told the audience that “all due respect,” he hadn’t really wanted to come, but had done so as a favor. That didn’t keep him from speaking for 52 minutes—a State of the Union-length talk, but not so much a political speech as a score-settling march through a list of those against whom he has grievances, including Neil Young, Karl Rove, Cher, Chuck Todd, someone with the Club for Growth whose name he can’t remember—“David something; "
It's refreshing and fun. Of course he hasn't got a cat in hell's chance, but fun none the less.
"The Greek Financial Stability Council meeting, which ended in the last half an hour, has reportedly agreed to impose capital controls and said there will be a bank holiday next week."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11704054/Greek-crisis-live-blog-as-it-happens.html
Not looking good, is this actually the end game after 7 years?
The deal was put on the table yesterday, three days before the deal expires, there wasn't the faintest chance at that point that Greece would have been able to consult on that proposal before it expired.
In any case the facts are beside the point, politics is about perception, it makes the EU look undemocratic and dictatorial and is going to be replayed endlessly by parties that don't like the EU. Along with the minor detail that the bail out does actually benefit Greece other than to give them money so they can continue to reward the French and German banks for the bad lending decisions they made.
If Greece does leave the eurozone there's still the potential for others to do likewise, or for the EU itself to be left by Greece.
https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/615127958928388096
E: Here's a deal we think you can live with
G: Good, lets ask the people what they think then
E: How dare you consult your electorate, The offer is withdrawn
https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/614841231827464192
NASA is holding a press Conference. The President and COO of Spacex is called - - - Gwynne Shotwell.
Ed was never going to win but the unpredicted was the LD wipe-out in the SW, and the almost complete wipe-out of Labour in Scotland. No one predicted the Scottish result as 58? seats to the SNP
As usual R Nabavi calls it right.
That said, this is an unusual situation (and you can understand why they might be peeved) in that the government proposing the referendum on their offer is actually urging the people to reject it. It appears to have been deliberately done to rile the EU.
And what do the US get for this funding of our security? We're the 6th largest economy in the world, and you think it's ok for a foreign power, with it's own agenda, to own our security services? Do you not realise that by owning our security, they own our foreign policy? And you imply that *I'm* disloyal for keeping a level head on Russia.
His gift was to convince the banks into lending him more despite repeated bankruptcies
It enables New Drachma notes to be printed, the banks not to go bust, and it enables plans for Grexit on the 5th (if that is the result) to be put in place. It is absolutely the right thing (for Greece) to do, and it slightly increases my confidence that it will not be an absolute shit show for the country.
Part of the problem here is that the media is dumbing down game theory to its most basic examples. It is a complicated field and dumbing it down and pretending that you can predict behaviour from it and get the ideal outcome is absurdly simplistic.
He's using his own money to run for prez. Most folks who are rich had investors to help them.
Really? You really are that much biased?