To shift back to Greece: is the Monday choice simply between a bank holiday or a bank run?
There is no choice. The banks are empty and dependent on daily deliveries of notes from the ECB which will now not come.
I am really struggling to see a way back from this even if there was any inclination.
The Greek banks are now bust because they don't have a lender of last resort which can provide the liquidity required for their day to day operations.
If Scotland got independence it will no longer be a part of the UK. Is that not the point? So such liquidity operations will no longer be provided to banks based in Scotland for any trading in Scotland. So if there is a run on the bank here in Scotland they go bust. Not the Bank of England's problem.
I would like to think this would be unarguable after this coming week but obviously that will not be the case. Not on here anyway. I admire MBE's perseverance. I gave up a while ago.
First order of business would be to shift all the banknotes in their UK branches north of the border, thereby exporting the problem. And the BofE couldn't refill the branches without that being sucked out as well (or introducing border controls)
LOL, Rich Tory tries a scary story that a 5 year old would laugh at.
Greek banknotes are identified in two ways. They have a Bank of Greece issuing letter and a Bank of Greece printing works letter. Issuing banknotes without the owners' permission wouldn't exactly be a minor thing in international diplomacy as it would effectively be high-quality counterfeiting. (This is public information available on Wikipedia.)
Indeed. Counterfeiting another country's currency could legitimately be considered economic warfare.
No, it's not. You need to look at the purpose of the Scottish committee, not the form.
The problem is that your thinking about semantics and not perception.
It doesn't matter what the Scotland Committee does. It doesn't matter how the Scotland Committee works. And it doesn't matter what the goals of the Scotland Committee are.
What matters is how the political parties in Scotland create the narrative over what happens. And in this case it is an own goal for Unionism as the SNP get free reign to point out how English MPs get to "decide Scotland's future".
Reality will always come second to how things are perceived.
SNP-phites would make that claim anyway.
And please stop using the term "Loyalists". It's inaccurate and offensive.
Only to the limit they promised on Friday. I am not sure that will allow the Banks to open on Monday (at least for very long) and the entire program comes to an end on Tuesday when the funding arrangements are not renewed.
As I was saying this morning it was not capital but people that I would fear pouring out of Greece in uncontrollable numbers. The EU and the EZ have a very strong vested interest in making sure that the lights stay on, the water continues to flow and the sewage continues to be treated by people who are getting their wages.
To shift back to Greece: is the Monday choice simply between a bank holiday or a bank run?
Can I steal that one?
Seriously: I think that's right. The responsible action is to call a bank holiday. But if your goal is to leave the Euro without looking like you want to leave the Euro, then a bank run seems the best option.
Seriously Greece: leave the Euro in a sensible manner, not by blowing up your banks and f***ing savers.
Despite all the ranting on here from certain people about the Greek leadership being f***ing idiots etc. I find that rather unlikely, Varoufakis is a very smart cookie, a talented economist, and a world expert on games theory. I think it is rather more plausible that what is happening is exactly what they want to happen, to leave the euro, but with someone else to blame.
If he was that smart a cookie, he would not be about to preside over the meltdown of the Greek banking system. Considering Greece's history of anti-democratic coups, you have to ask what the probability of another one within the year now is.
Is an interesting profile, particular where James Galbraith, son of the famous J. K. Galbraith, described Varoufakis as "Yanis is the most intense and deep intellectual figure I've met in my generation,"
What's more, Varoufakis's academic specialty is game theory, the study of strategic decision-making in situations where people with differing interests try to maximize their gains and minimize their losses. Varoufakis knows as much about this subject "as anyone on the planet," Galbraith says. "He will be thinking more than a few steps ahead" in any interactions with the troika.
Of course what we cant see is the extent to which Tsipras, and altogether more mundane intellect is calling the shots. Interesting times.
'We'll believe the Loyalists nonsense about refusing currency union as long as Scotland wants it when they explain how they will prop up Sterling with a Zero Resources economy.'
Serious question, have you just returned from a Syriza training seminar in Greece ?
Better than the Tory Disney characters on here coming up with Fantasia sequels.
To shift back to Greece: is the Monday choice simply between a bank holiday or a bank run?
Can I steal that one?
Seriously: I think that's right. The responsible action is to call a bank holiday. But if your goal is to leave the Euro without looking like you want to leave the Euro, then a bank run seems the best option.
Seriously Greece: leave the Euro in a sensible manner, not by blowing up your banks and f***ing savers.
Despite all the ranting on here from certain people about the Greek leadership being f***ing idiots etc. I find that rather unlikely, Varoufakis is a very smart cookie, a talented economist, and a world expert on games theory. I think it is rather more plausible that what is happening is exactly what they want to happen, to leave the euro, but with someone else to blame.
If he was that smart a cookie, he would not be about to preside over the meltdown of the Greek banking system. Considering Greece's history of anti-democratic coups, you have to ask what the probability of another one within the year now is.
Is an interesting profile, particular where James Galbraith, son of the famous J. K. Galbraith, described Varoufakis as "Yanis is the most intense and deep intellectual figure I've met in my generation,"
A good illustration of the wisdom of the saying, "Too many tweets..."
A good illustration of the merits of using the internet too much versus spending time in real life.
To shift back to Greece: is the Monday choice simply between a bank holiday or a bank run?
Can I steal that one?
Seriously: I think that's right. The responsible action is to call a bank holiday. But if your goal is to leave the Euro without looking like you want to leave the Euro, then a bank run seems the best option.
Seriously Greece: leave the Euro in a sensible manner, not by blowing up your banks and f***ing savers.
Despite all the ranting on here from certain people about the Greek leadership being f***ing idiots etc. I find that rather unlikely, Varoufakis is a very smart cookie, a talented economist, and a world expert on games theory. I think it is rather more plausible that what is happening is exactly what they want to happen, to leave the euro, but with someone else to blame.
If he was that smart a cookie, he would not be about to preside over the meltdown of the Greek banking system. Considering Greece's history of anti-democratic coups, you have to ask what the probability of another one within the year now is.
Is an interesting profile, particular where James Galbraith, son of the famous J. K. Galbraith, described Varoufakis as "Yanis is the most intense and deep intellectual figure I've met in my generation,"
A good illustration of the wisdom of the saying, "Too many tweets..."
A good illustration of the merits of using the internet too much versus spending time in real life.
I don't see that the article illustrates either of those points.
Mr. Glenn, has the situation actually changed, or was a misleading, excitable slant put on the story initially, which has since been changed and made more accurate?
To shift back to Greece: is the Monday choice simply between a bank holiday or a bank run?
Can I steal that one?
Seriously: I think that's right. The responsible action is to call a bank holiday. But if your goal is to leave the Euro without looking like you want to leave the Euro, then a bank run seems the best option.
Seriously Greece: leave the Euro in a sensible manner, not by blowing up your banks and f***ing savers.
Despite all the ranting on here from certain people about the Greek leadership being f***ing idiots etc. I find that rather unlikely, Varoufakis is a very smart cookie, a talented economist, and a world expert on games theory. I think it is rather more plausible that what is happening is exactly what they want to happen, to leave the euro, but with someone else to blame.
If he was that smart a cookie, he would not be about to preside over the meltdown of the Greek banking system. Considering Greece's history of anti-democratic coups, you have to ask what the probability of another one within the year now is.
Is an interesting profile, particular where James Galbraith, son of the famous J. K. Galbraith, described Varoufakis as "Yanis is the most intense and deep intellectual figure I've met in my generation,"
A good illustration of the wisdom of the saying, "Too many tweets..."
A good illustration of the merits of using the internet too much versus spending time in real life.
I don't see that the article illustrates either of those points.
Calum Rubbish SLab is a shadow of its former self and there is no point wiping out SLAB entirely to set up for 2020 if Scotland becomes an independent country by 2020. Most Scottish Tories are unionists first and foremost and the enemy now at Holyrood is the SNP
I'm starting to wonder if you actually know any Scottish Tories. All I was doing by indicating very few, if any, of them would vote tactically to save SLAB and that they harbour hopes for becoming Holyrood's opposition if not the largest party. This is not my view but based on the many Scottish Tories I know. I don't think you quite appreciate the Tory v Labour animosity.
In some ways I admire your tenacity on sticking to your grand Unionist alliance rising up to defeat the SNP in 2016. The problem is to achieve this somebody must be able to herd a cat, a donkey, a mouse and a bulldog into the voting booth and somehow agree to vote for the same person. There're many websites out there trying to organise this alliance SNPout, United against Separation, Smash the SNP and Tactical Voter etc. They're disorganised and at times contradictory and many if not most of the posters live in rUK.
Anyway the SNP are now polling 60%.
Calum, the Tories on here talk out of their posteriors, they could not find Scotland on a map never mind a Scottish Tory. They pontificate from total ignorance of Scotland.
Mr. Glenn, has the situation actually changed, or was a misleading, excitable slant put on the story initially, which has since been changed and made more accurate?
"The European Central Bank's governing council is expected to turn off Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) for Greek banks at its meeting later today, according to well-placed sources."
Despite all the ranting on here from certain people about the Greek leadership being f***ing idiots etc. I find that rather unlikely, Varoufakis is a very smart cookie, a talented economist, and a world expert on games theory.
If he has a talent at economics or expertise at game theory, he doesn't seem to have used them in the last six months. In fact, given his behavior, one may propound the theory that he is in fact thick as horses***.
I think it is rather more plausible that what is happening is exactly what they want to happen, to leave the euro, but with someone else to blame.
If what has happened is what he planned all along, then he is a psychopath who should be locked up. I've worked with nutters, and the best approach is to DTMF and GTFO before they bring you down. Varoufakis, Tsipras et al are a danger to themselves and their country. The former is their tragedy, but the latter is Greece's.
Calum Yet Angus Robertson today has seemed to suggest the 'material events' clause would include Scotland not getting further powers beyond the Scotland Bill or too much austerity being imposed on Scotland, so not just an Out vote in EU ref. Close examination needs to be made of this 'material events' clause next year to see what it actually refers to
I think the " material events " clause will not go into much detail, I'd expect the SNP would want to leave themselves maximum scope for manoeuvre here.
Yep, it will be the only way to keep the SNP together. But how long it can hold the line is another question altogether. Can blood and soil nationalists sit with social democrats for ever without a schism occurring?
I'd describe myself as a " blood and soil social democrat ", whereas my wife is a social democrat. The big concern of my wife and others is that the SNP would go down a UDI route, which is why the need for a referendum will be retained.
Calum Yet Angus Robertson today has seemed to suggest the 'material events' clause would include Scotland not getting further powers beyond the Scotland Bill or too much austerity being imposed on Scotland, so not just an Out vote in EU ref. Close examination needs to be made of this 'material events' clause next year to see what it actually refers to
I think the " material events " clause will not go into much detail, I'd expect the SNP would want to leave themselves maximum scope for manoeuvre here.
Yep, it will be the only way to keep the SNP together. But how long it can hold the line is another question altogether. Can blood and soil nationalists sit with social democrats for ever without a schism occurring?
LOL, you are not getting it, imagining despots is a pretty tired thread nowadays. They are getting ever more together and with ever more supporters.
Peston or the BBC news editor should really be fired after their attention seeking headlines this morning.
Doesn't the ECB press release say that it is maintaining the ELA ceiling at the previous level i.e. there is no new money on offer? It does say that it's keeping things under review but that is emphatically not the same as the ECB saying that it's ready to do whatever it takes. Indeed, the press release specifically quotes the Greek central bank governor as saying something along those lines, which is diplomatic speak for saying "and we're not currently backing him otherwise we'd have said so".
So they were trying to topple the government (as with Papandreou) but it didn't work and now they are having to row back in a big hurry to prevent the crisis getting out of hand ?
Or Robert Peston put glory-hunting for an exclusive to try and break a story first before getting his facts straight. Not for the first time.
If Scotland does not have its own currency the Scottish government would not be able to provide any kind of cash injection because it would have no control over the currency Scotland is using. Unless, that is, it had built up a sizeable reserve - which, of course, would mean the imposition of eye-watering austerity.
Nothing would be stopping an independent Scottish Government from borrowing funds to provide support if necessary. Of course it would not have to because the probability of such an exposure is very, very low.
The biggest problem with your argument is that you try to portray events which historically occur once every 40 odd years as being "normal" and automatically assume they would impact Scotland in the way they impacted the poorly regulated and run UK when plenty of countries around the world barely noticed the events of 2008.
You would be as well resorting to the sort of argument some of the more unhinged Loyalists came up with during the Referendum campaign and worry about Scotland's exposure to invasions from Space.
Scotland would be entering independence with the highest deficit of any country in Europe in terms of GDP. Try finding a lender on the back of that, without the country's government imposing eye-watering austerity. The fact is that institutions will only lend if they believe they have a chance of getting a return - see Greece. And like Greece, an independent Scotland would not control its currency under the system the SNP has been proposing, the rUK would. What is currently happening in Euroland should terrify any non blood and soil Scottish nationalist who has advocated a currency union with either the Eurozone or the rUK post-independence. Blood and soil nationalists are different, I understand that: they believe any price is worth paying for that international frontier. But they do not have the honesty and integrity to put that argument in front of the Scottish people.
Reductio ad Greacia.
Because of course, the Scottish economy is just like Greece.
This is the sort of nonsense argument that has got Loyalists completely shut out of the debate. You talk nonsense. Scotland will not be faced with immediate financial crisis and dead banks because it is a relatively stable, first world economy with a highly diversified base.
The "deficit" is entirely based on fictitious accounting - for example the £3.5bn Scotland "pays" into the UK Infrastructure Plan (getting back about £200mn) and the £4bn Scotland is charged for Westminster's debt interest.
But you know these points, you're not even trying to argue a rational case, you just like to belittle Scotland.
To shift back to Greece: is the Monday choice simply between a bank holiday or a bank run?
Can I steal that one?
Seriously: I think that's right. The responsible action is to call a bank holiday. But if your goal is to leave the Euro without looking like you want to leave the Euro, then a bank run seems the best option.
Seriously Greece: leave the Euro in a sensible manner, not by blowing up your banks and f***ing savers.
Despite all the ranting on here from certain people about the Greek leadership being f***ing idiots etc. I find that rather unlikely, Varoufakis is a very smart cookie, a talented economist, and a world expert on games theory. I think it is rather more plausible that what is happening is exactly what they want to happen, to leave the euro, but with someone else to blame.
If he was that smart a cookie, he would not be about to preside over the meltdown of the Greek banking system. Considering Greece's history of anti-democratic coups, you have to ask what the probability of another one within the year now is.
Is an interesting profile, particular where James Galbraith, son of the famous J. K. Galbraith, described Varoufakis as "Yanis is the most intense and deep intellectual figure I've met in my generation,"
What's more, Varoufakis's academic specialty is game theory, the study of strategic decision-making in situations where people with differing interests try to maximize their gains and minimize their losses. Varoufakis knows as much about this subject "as anyone on the planet," Galbraith says. "He will be thinking more than a few steps ahead" in any interactions with the troika.
Of course what we cant see is the extent to which Tsipras, and altogether more mundane intellect is calling the shots. Interesting times.
Probably the most intellectually brilliant MP of the 20th century was Enoch Powell. Didn't stop him from being a poor politician. Brilliant people (and I'm not convinced that Varoufakis is, for that matter), often have either an intolerance for, or a lack of understanding of, those less intellectually gifted.
In any case, the proof is in the pudding with Varoufakis. If his game playing was that good, either he is after a very strange outcome or he wouldn't be where he is.
I'm sure the paper supply would be very carefully controlled simply to stop counterfeiters. Having the plates isn't the be all and end all. And I assume back up designs are also ready to go in case of a massive failure.
Thank you. I'm not sure about your point regarding back-up designs, but your point about paper (and by inference, watermark and strip) does seem plausible, thank you.
To shift back to Greece: is the Monday choice simply between a bank holiday or a bank run?
Can I steal that one?
Seriously: I think that's right. The responsible action is to call a bank holiday. But if your goal is to leave the Euro without looking like you want to leave the Euro, then a bank run seems the best option.
Seriously Greece: leave the Euro in a sensible manner, not by blowing up your banks and f***ing savers.
Despite all the ranting on here from certain people about the Greek leadership being f***ing idiots etc. I find that rather unlikely, Varoufakis is a very smart cookie, a talented economist, and a world expert on games theory. I think it is rather more plausible that what is happening is exactly what they want to happen, to leave the euro, but with someone else to blame.
If he was that smart a cookie, he would not be about to preside over the meltdown of the Greek banking system. Considering Greece's history of anti-democratic coups, you have to ask what the probability of another one within the year now is.
Is an interesting profile, particular where James Galbraith, son of the famous J. K. Galbraith, described Varoufakis as "Yanis is the most intense and deep intellectual figure I've met in my generation,"
What's more, Varoufakis's academic specialty is game theory, the study of strategic decision-making in situations where people with differing interests try to maximize their gains and minimize their losses. Varoufakis knows as much about this subject "as anyone on the planet," Galbraith says. "He will be thinking more than a few steps ahead" in any interactions with the troika.
Of course what we cant see is the extent to which Tsipras, and altogether more mundane intellect is calling the shots. Interesting times.
Probably the most intellectually brilliant MP of the 20th century was Enoch Powell. Didn't stop him from being a poor politician. Brilliant people (and I'm not convinced that Varoufakis is, for that matter), often have either an intolerance for, or a lack of understanding of, those less intellectually gifted.
In any case, the proof is in the pudding with Varoufakis. If his game playing was that good, either he is after a very strange outcome or he wouldn't be where he is.
Isn't it obvious to everyone that being an expert in game theory doesn't mean you can win all the games?
Its a point he made earlier last week, in as much as the eurogroup were talking about imposing capital controls on Greece, which is explicitly against the treaties, and could only be imposed by the Greek government themselves.
Isn't it obvious to everyone that being an expert in game theory doesn't mean you can win all the games?
Or that there are internal tensions in Syriza that we cant see (in addition to the very public ones we can see) and that Tsipras is calling the shots - didn't his partner threaten to leave him if he gave in to the Eurogroup or something!
If Scotland does not have its own currency the Scottish government would not be able to provide any kind of cash injection because it would have no control over the currency Scotland is using. Unless, that is, it had built up a sizeable reserve - which, of course, would mean the imposition of eye-watering austerity.
Nothing would be stopping an independent Scottish Government from borrowing funds to provide support if necessary. Of course it would not have to because the probability of such an exposure is very, very low.
The biggest problem with your argument is that you try to portray events which historically occur once every 40 odd years as being "normal" and automatically assume they would impact Scotland in the way they impacted the poorly regulated and run UK when plenty of countries around the world barely noticed the events of 2008.
You would be as well resorting to the sort of argument some of the more unhinged Loyalists came up with during the Referendum campaign and worry about Scotland's exposure to invasions from Space.
Scotland would be entering independence with the highest deficit of any country in Europe in terms of GDP. Try finding a lender on the back of that, without the country's government imposing eye-watering austerity. The fact is that institutions will only lend if they believe they have a chance of getting a return - see Greece. And like Greece, an independent Scotland would not control its currency under the system the SNP has been proposing, the rUK would. What is currently happening in Euroland should terrify any non blood and soil Scottish nationalist who has advocated a currency union with either the Eurozone or the rUK post-independence. Blood and soil nationalists are different, I understand that: they believe any price is worth paying for that international frontier. But they do not have the honesty and integrity to put that argument in front of the Scottish people.
But you know these points, you're not even trying to argue a rational case, you just like to belittle Scotland.
You can always tell when a Nat has lost an argument - when they get out the 'belittle Scotland' trope.
Easier than dealing with the facts I guess.....
Perhaps one fine day it will finally compute that 'criticising SNP plans' is not synonymous with 'belittling Scotland'......
Isn't it obvious to everyone that being an expert in game theory doesn't mean you can win all the games?
Or that there are internal tensions in Syriza that we cant see (in addition to the very public ones we can see) and that Tsipras is calling the shots - didn't his partner threaten to leave him if he gave in to the Eurogroup or something!
In particular he doesn't seem to realize a basic concept in applying game theory to the real world. The other guy will adjust his strategy. As Herman Kahn put it "The opponent may adjust his plans to do what is most inconvenient for us. Unfortunately opponent are like that."
If Scotland does not have its own currency the Scottish government would not be able to provide any kind of cash injection because it would have no control over the currency Scotland is using. Unless, that is, it had built up a sizeable reserve - which, of course, would mean the imposition of eye-watering austerity.
Nothing would be stopping an independent Scottish Government from borrowing funds to provide support if necessary. Of course it would not have to because the probability of such an exposure is very, very low.
The biggest problem with your argument is that you try to portray events which historically occur once every 40 odd years as being "normal" and automatically assume they would impact Scotland in the way they impacted the poorly regulated and run UK when plenty of countries around the world barely noticed the events of 2008.
You would be as well resorting to the sort of argument some of the more unhinged Loyalists came up with during the Referendum campaign and worry about Scotland's exposure to invasions from Space.
Scotland would be entering independence with the highest deficit of any country in Europe in terms of GDP. Try finding a lender on the back of that, without the country's government imposing eye-watering austerity. The fact is that institutions will only lend if they believe they have a chance of getting a return - see Greece. And like Greece, an independent Scotland would not control its currency under the system the SNP has been proposing, the rUK would. What is currently happening in Euroland should terrify any non blood and soil Scottish nationalist who has advocated a currency union with either the Eurozone or the rUK post-independence. Blood and soil nationalists are different, I understand that: they believe any price is worth paying for that international frontier. But they do not have the honesty and integrity to put that argument in front of the Scottish people.
But you know these points, you're not even trying to argue a rational case, you just like to belittle Scotland.
You can always tell when a Nat has lost an argument - when they get out the 'belittle Scotland' trope.
Easier than dealing with the facts I guess.....
Perhaps one fine day it will finally compute that 'criticising SNP plans' is not synonymous with 'belittling Scotland'......
Its a point he made earlier last week, in as much as the eurogroup were talking about imposing capital controls on Greece, which is explicitly against the treaties, and could only be imposed by the Greek government themselves.
Although, technically, you could have each of the other members of the Eurozone impose their own capital controls, which would effectively impose them on Greece.
Cyprus, of course, had capital controls in the wake of its financial crisis. I think - but I could be wrong - that they are no longer in place.
Because of course, the Scottish economy is just like Greece.
This is the sort of nonsense argument that has got Loyalists completely shut out of the debate. You talk nonsense. Scotland will not be faced with immediate financial crisis and dead banks because it is a relatively stable, first world economy with a highly diversified base.
The "deficit" is entirely based on fictitious accounting - for example the £3.5bn Scotland "pays" into the UK Infrastructure Plan (getting back about £200mn) and the £4bn Scotland is charged for Westminster's debt interest.
But you know these points, you're not even trying to argue a rational case, you just like to belittle Scotland.
As your nationalism is of the blood and soil fundamentalist variety I can understand why you say these things, but if you are intelligent, you know you are wrong. Scotland will have to service its debt and manage its deficit from day one of independence. Its deficit will be far higher as a proportion of GDP than any other European country. Even Greece. That is the scenario against which it will have to raise money on the markets. Its economy is not diversified to any great extent, it is focused on just three areas: the public sector, oil and financial services. A blow to any one of these will prompt a major crisis. That might include the price of oil being $60 a barrel instead of $120, pension funds and others moving to England to ensure they remained in the same jurisdiction as their client base and retained a creditable lender of last resort, or cuts being made to public sector jobs. Should all three happen at the same time, of course, it would be calamitous, especially as in a Sterling-zone the Scottish government's economic and fiscal policies will be dictated by its creditors and the rUK. Again, for blood and soil nationalists such as yourself that will not matter, as there will be an international border between Scotland and England and that is what independence for you is all about. But it will have a significant and negative impact on the lives of most ordinary Scots, the most vulnerable above all.
And, as we both know, Nicola Sturgeon is a Loyalist.
If Scotland does not have its own currency the Scottish government would not be able to provide any kind of cash injection because it would have no control over the currency Scotland is using. Unless, that is, it had built up a sizeable reserve - which, of course, would mean the imposition of eye-watering austerity.
Nothing would be stopping an independent Scottish Government from borrowing funds to provide support if necessary. Of course it would not have to because the probability of such an exposure is very, very low.
The biggest problem with your argument is that you try to portray events which historically occur once every 40 odd years as being "normal" and automatically assume they would impact Scotland in the way they impacted the poorly regulated and run UK when plenty of countries around the world barely noticed the events of 2008.
You would be as well resorting to the sort of argument some of the more unhinged Loyalists came up with during the Referendum campaign and worry about Scotland's exposure to invasions from Space.
Scotland would be entering independence with the highest deficit of any country in Europe in terms of GDP. Try finding a lender on the back of that, without the country's government imposing eye-watering austerity. The fact is that institutions will only lend if they believe they have a chance of getting a return - see Greece. And like Greece, an independent Scotland would not control its currency under the system the SNP has been proposing, the rUK would. What is currently happening in Euroland should terrify any non blood and soil Scottish nationalist who has advocated a currency union with either the Eurozone or the rUK post-independence. Blood and soil nationalists are different, I understand that: they believe any price is worth paying for that international frontier. But they do not have the honesty and integrity to put that argument in front of the Scottish people.
But you know these points, you're not even trying to argue a rational case, you just like to belittle Scotland.
You can always tell when a Nat has lost an argument - when they get out the 'belittle Scotland' trope.
Easier than dealing with the facts I guess.....
Perhaps one fine day it will finally compute that 'criticising SNP plans' is not synonymous with 'belittling Scotland'......
Emigrant tax exile tries to pontificate about Scotland with usual pathetic arguments.
Its a point he made earlier last week, in as much as the eurogroup were talking about imposing capital controls on Greece, which is explicitly against the treaties, and could only be imposed by the Greek government themselves.
Although, technically, you could have each of the other members of the Eurozone impose their own capital controls, which would effectively impose them on Greece.
Cyprus, of course, had capital controls in the wake of its financial crisis. I think - but I could be wrong - that they are no longer in place.
I think the remaining capital controls for Cyprus were lifted 2 months ago.
If Scotland does not have its own currency the Scottish government would not be able to provide any kind of cash injection because it would have no control over the currency Scotland is using. Unless, that is, it had built up a sizeable reserve - which, of course, would mean the imposition of eye-watering austerity.
Nothing would be stopping an independent Scottish Government from borrowing funds to provide support if necessary. Of course it would not have to because the probability of such an exposure is very, very low.
The biggest problem with your argument is that you try to portray events which historically occur once every 40 odd years as being "normal" and automatically assume they would impact Scotland in the way they impacted the poorly regulated and run UK when plenty of countries around the world barely noticed the events of 2008.
You would be as well resorting to the sort of argument some of the more unhinged Loyalists came up with during the Referendum campaign and worry about Scotland's exposure to invasions from Space.
Scotland would be entering independence with the highest deficit of any country in Europe in terms of GDP. Try finding a lender on the back of that, without the country's government imposing eye-watering austerity. The fact is that institutions will only lend if they believe they have a chance of getting a return - see Greece. And like Greece, an independent Scotland would not control its currency under the system the SNP has been proposing, the rUK would. What is currently happening in Euroland should terrify any non blood and soil Scottish nationalist who has advocated a currency union with either the Eurozone or the rUK post-independence. Blood and soil nationalists are different, I understand that: they believe any price is worth paying for that international frontier. But they do not have the honesty and integrity to put that argument in front of the Scottish people.
But you know these points, you're not even trying to argue a rational case, you just like to belittle Scotland.
You can always tell when a Nat has lost an argument - when they get out the 'belittle Scotland' trope.
Easier than dealing with the facts I guess.....
Perhaps one fine day it will finally compute that 'criticising SNP plans' is not synonymous with 'belittling Scotland'......
Its a point he made earlier last week, in as much as the eurogroup were talking about imposing capital controls on Greece, which is explicitly against the treaties, and could only be imposed by the Greek government themselves.
Although, technically, you could have each of the other members of the Eurozone impose their own capital controls, which would effectively impose them on Greece.
Cyprus, of course, had capital controls in the wake of its financial crisis. I think - but I could be wrong - that they are no longer in place.
It is surprising more has not been heard of Cyprus. I would be astonished if their Banks had a lot of collateral (other than IOU 12 points for the next half dozen Eurovisions) from their Greek counterparts either. They will need major support if they are to stay in the EZ.
Its a point he made earlier last week, in as much as the eurogroup were talking about imposing capital controls on Greece, which is explicitly against the treaties, and could only be imposed by the Greek government themselves.
Although, technically, you could have each of the other members of the Eurozone impose their own capital controls, which would effectively impose them on Greece.
Cyprus, of course, had capital controls in the wake of its financial crisis. I think - but I could be wrong - that they are no longer in place.
I think the remaining capital controls for Cyprus were lifted 2 months ago.
For those determined to keep talking about Scotland, what chance that a political Chancellor such as Mr Osborne will pass up the opportunity to make it clear who subsidises who? "Scotland now raises its own income tax and pays their own benefits, and as a result we can now cut the standard rate of tax in England and Wales from 20% to 18%..."
To shift back to Greece: is the Monday choice simply between a bank holiday or a bank run?
There is no choice. The banks are empty and dependent on daily deliveries of notes from the ECB which will now not come.
I am really struggling to see a way back from this even if there was any inclination.
The Greek banks are now bust because they don't have a lender of last resort which can provide the liquidity required for their day to day operations.
If Scotland got independence it will no longer be a part of the UK. Is that not the point? So such liquidity operations will no longer be provided to banks based in Scotland for any trading in Scotland. So if there is a run on the bank here in Scotland they go bust. Not the Bank of England's problem.
I would like to think this would be unarguable after this coming week but obviously that will not be the case. Not on here anyway. I admire MBE's perseverance. I gave up a while ago.
First order of business would be to shift all the banknotes in their UK branches north of the border, thereby exporting the problem. And the BofE couldn't refill the branches without that being sucked out as well (or introducing border controls)
LOL, Rich Tory tries a scary story that a 5 year old would laugh at.
Why do you need to reference every comment with some reference to to your (false) perception of my wealth? Most of my net worth is the value of the 2 bedroom flat I live in. It's in the central London, so it's a big number on paper, but the amenity value is no different to a similar flat elsewhere.
As for the substantive point, it wasn't a scary story: in @DavidL's scenario that's exactly what would happen (it's what happened in Lehmans, for instance): the periphery is always sacrificed to protect the core.
If Scotland does not have its own currency the Scottish government would not be able to provide any kind of cash injection because it would have no control over the currency Scotland is using. Unless, that is, it had built up a sizeable reserve - which, of course, would mean the imposition of eye-watering austerity.
Nothing would be stopping an independent Scottish Government from borrowing funds to provide support if necessary. Of course it would not have to because the probability of such an exposure is very, very low.
The biggest problem with your argument is that you try to portray events which historically occur once every 40 odd years as being "normal" and automatically assume they would impact Scotland in the way they impacted the poorly regulated and run UK when plenty of countries around the world barely noticed the events of 2008.
You would be as well resorting to the sort of argument some of the more unhinged Loyalists came up with during the Referendum campaign and worry about Scotland's exposure to invasions from Space.
Scotland would be entering independence with the highest deficit of any country in Europe in terms of GDP. Try finding a lender on the back of that, without the country's government imposing eye-watering austerity. The fact is that institutions will only lend if they believe they have a chance of getting a return - see Greece. And like Greece, an independent Scotland would not control its currency under the system the SNP has been proposing, the rUK would. What is currently happening in Euroland should terrify any non blood and soil Scottish nationalist who has advocated a currency union with either the Eurozone or the rUK post-independence. Blood and soil nationalists are different, I understand that: they believe any price is worth paying for that international frontier. But they do not have the honesty and integrity to put that argument in front of the Scottish people.
But you know these points, you're not even trying to argue a rational case, you just like to belittle Scotland.
You can always tell when a Nat has lost an argument - when they get out the 'belittle Scotland' trope.
Easier than dealing with the facts I guess.....
Perhaps one fine day it will finally compute that 'criticising SNP plans' is not synonymous with 'belittling Scotland'......
An earlier version of the BBC article headlined "ECB 'to end' bank emergency lending" explicitly referred to sceptical tweets saying they would cap but not end ELA. The BBC then edited that line from the article. (http://www.newssniffer.co.uk/articles/977401/diff/6/7)
Some analysts have tweeted that the ECB is likely to cap, but not end, the ELA.
And French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said the ECB "is independent but... I don't think it can cut off rations [for the Greeks]". He said "it's the Greek nation that is suffering".
I don't see how Peston can now say that he got the story right.
For those determined to keep talking about Scotland, what chance that a political Chancellor such as Mr Osborne will pass up the opportunity to make it clear who subsidises who? "Scotland now raises its own income tax, and pays their own benefits, and as a result we can now drop the standard rate of tax in England and Wales from 20% to 18%..."
For those determined to keep talking about Scotland, what chance that a political Chancellor such as Mr Osborne will pass up the opportunity to make it clear who subsidises who? "Scotland now raises its own income tax, and pays their own benefits, and as a result we can now drop the standard rate of tax in England and Wales from 20% to 18%..."
You absolute dummy, income tax is a fraction of the country's revenue. Squeaky would be raising taxes not cutting them.
If Scotland does not have its own currency the Scottish government would not be able to provide any kind of cash injection because it would have no control over the currency Scotland is using. Unless, that is, it had built up a sizeable reserve - which, of course, would mean the imposition of eye-watering austerity.
Nothing would be stopping an independent Scottish Government from borrowing funds to provide support if necessary. Of course it would not have to because the probability of such an exposure is very, very low.
The biggest problem with your argument is that you try to portray events which historically occur once every 40 odd years as being "normal" and automatically assume they would impact Scotland in the way they impacted the poorly regulated and run UK when plenty of countries around the world barely noticed the events of 2008.
You would be as well resorting to the sort of argument some of the more unhinged Loyalists came up with during the Referendum campaign and worry about Scotland's exposure to invasions from Space.
Scotland would be entering independence with the highest deficit of any country in Europe in terms of GDP. Try finding a lender on the back of that, without the country's government imposing eye-watering austerity. The fact is that institutions will only lend if they believe they have a chance of getting a return - see Greece. And like Greece, an independent Scotland would not control its currency under the system the SNP has been proposing, the rUK would. What is currently happening in Euroland should terrify any non blood and soil Scottish nationalist who has advocated a currency union with either the Eurozone or the rUK post-independence. Blood and soil nationalists are .
But you know these points, you're not even trying to argue a rational case, you just like to belittle Scotland.
..
Perhaps one fine day it will finally compute that 'criticising SNP plans' is not synonymous with 'belittling Scotland'......
Equating turnips with tax exiles is a hate crime.
As long as it is not Ayrshires, cannot have them sullied by being linked to unionist tax exiles.
To shift back to Greece: is the Monday choice simply between a bank holiday or a bank run?
There is no choice. The banks are empty and dependent on daily deliveries of notes from the ECB which will now not come.
I am really struggling to see a way back from this even if there was any inclination.
The Greek banks are now bust because they don't have a lender of last resort which can provide the liquidity required for their day to day operations.
If Scotland got independence it will no longer be a part of the UK. Is that not the point? So such liquidity operations will no longer be provided to banks based in Scotland for any trading in Scotland. So if there is a run on the bank here in Scotland they go bust. Not the Bank of England's problem.
I would like to think this would be unarguable after this coming week but obviously that will not be the case. Not on here anyway. I admire MBE's perseverance. I gave up a while ago.
First order of business would be to shift all the banknotes in their UK branches north of the border, thereby exporting the problem. And the BofE couldn't refill the branches without that being sucked out as well (or introducing border controls)
LOL, Rich Tory tries a scary story that a 5 year old would laugh at.
Why do you need to reference every comment with some reference to to your (false) perception of my wealth? Most of my net worth is the value of the 2 bedroom flat I live in. It's in the central London, so it's a big number on paper, but the amenity value is no different to a similar flat elsewhere.
As for the substantive point, it wasn't a scary story: in @DavidL's scenario that's exactly what would happen (it's what happened in Lehmans, for instance): the periphery is always sacrificed to protect the core.
We are not the paupers you make us out to be , you seem to forget 10% of all the reserves in the BofE would be winging its way , along with the payout on other national items, north. So we would have bundles of cash available thank you very much.
For those determined to keep talking about Scotland, what chance that a political Chancellor such as Mr Osborne will pass up the opportunity to make it clear who subsidises who? "Scotland now raises its own income tax, and pays their own benefits, and as a result we can now drop the standard rate of tax in England and Wales from 20% to 18%..."
You absolute dummy, income tax is a fraction of the country's revenue. Squeaky would be raising taxes not cutting them.
Where is dummy on the scale of insults? I was so looking forward to being a turnip!
Scotland will have to service its debt and manage its deficit from day one of independence. Its deficit will be far higher as a proportion of GDP than any other European country.
Again you repeat the lie.
Regardless of efficiency over spending on Foreign Affairs and Defence, regardless of share of Voluntary Contribution to rUK debt interest payments, Scotland WILL NOT be paying £3.5bn per annum to the UK Infrastructure Plan for which it gets £200mn of spending (ironically this is mainly Renewables Investment which is being withdrawn).
That is an immediate £3.3bn saving on current budgets, taking Scottish potential Deficit well under the UK's level.
There are no grounds at all under which an Independent Scotland would continue paying into the UK Infrastructure Plan. It is an absolute, unarguable saving of £3,3bn
There standard of living in Greece has fallen by 30% in the last six years as I understand it, there doesn't appear to be any reason to suggest it wasn't going to continue to fall for the next six years
That is a fascinating graph. So the Greek GDP per capita more than doubled between adopting the Euro and the onset of the recession? Do they really think they earned that unprecedented bounty? And for all the cries of poverty (which is undoubtedly true in some cases), GDP per capita is still two-thirds more than it was in 2001.
I live with the gay mother of my baby and my boyfriend couldn't be happier: Meet the millionaire who wants to become London Mayor and his VERY modern family
Ivan Massow is prospective Tory candidate for Mayor of London Lives with mother of unborn child and has 20-year-old boyfriend Says having a child 'explains life' and will complete him
For those determined to keep talking about Scotland, what chance that a political Chancellor such as Mr Osborne will pass up the opportunity to make it clear who subsidises who? "Scotland now raises its own income tax, and pays their own benefits, and as a result we can now drop the standard rate of tax in England and Wales from 20% to 18%..."
You absolute dummy, income tax is a fraction of the country's revenue. Squeaky would be raising taxes not cutting them.
Where is dummy on the scale of insults? I was so looking forward to being a turnip!
LOL, I apologise for the paucity of my insult , I should be trying harder.
For those determined to keep talking about Scotland, what chance that a political Chancellor such as Mr Osborne will pass up the opportunity to make it clear who subsidises who? "Scotland now raises its own income tax, and pays their own benefits, and as a result we can now drop the standard rate of tax in England and Wales from 20% to 18%..."
You absolute dummy, income tax is a fraction of the country's revenue. Squeaky would be raising taxes not cutting them.
Where is dummy on the scale of insults? I was so looking forward to being a turnip!
Consider "dummy" as a small promotion and that you are showing early potential. But the road ahead to true turniphood is not an easy one. You would do well to remember that.
Some people have worked long hours and put in real effort to be awarded the honour of 'turnip'. You can't just waltz in here and wear the big hat, you know.
Scotland will have to service its debt and manage its deficit from day one of independence. Its deficit will be far higher as a proportion of GDP than any other European country.
Again you repeat the lie.
Regardless of efficiency over spending on Foreign Affairs and Defence, regardless of share of Voluntary Contribution to rUK debt interest payments, Scotland WILL NOT be paying £3.5bn per annum to the UK Infrastructure Plan for which it gets £200mn of spending (ironically this is mainly Renewables Investment which is being withdrawn).
That is an immediate £3.3bn saving on current budgets, taking Scottish potential Deficit well under the UK's level.
There are no grounds at all under which an Independent Scotland would continue paying into the UK Infrastructure Plan. It is an absolute, unarguable saving of £3,3bn
Scotland is not billed £3.5 billion a year for anything. This is more blood and soil fantasy.
Regardless of efficiency over spending on Foreign Affairs and Defence, regardless of share of Voluntary Contribution to rUK debt interest payments, Scotland WILL NOT be paying £3.5bn per annum to the UK Infrastructure Plan for which it gets £200mn of spending (ironically this is mainly Renewables Investment which is being withdrawn).
That is an immediate £3.3bn saving on current budgets, taking Scottish potential Deficit well under the UK's level.
There are no grounds at all under which an Independent Scotland would continue paying into the UK Infrastructure Plan. It is an absolute, unarguable saving of £3,3bn
The latest figures from the SNP government:
Public sector revenue per capita (ex oil): Scotland - £9,400 UK -£9,600
Public sector spending per capita: Scotland - £12,500 UK - £11,200
Oil closes the deficit gap with the rest of the UK. In 2013/14 the oil revenue was £700 per person in Scotland, in 2013/14 it was half that, this year will come in at about £100 per person. However, the slowdown in the Scottish economy will increase the gap. In 2013/14 Scottish unemployment was 0.5% below the UK average, now it's 0.5% above.
This is where the IFS figure for Scotland's "extra" deficit comes from. At £1,500 per person higher than the UK, Scotland's deficit is £7.5 billion higher than its share of the UK deficit.
For those determined to keep talking about Scotland, what chance that a political Chancellor such as Mr Osborne will pass up the opportunity to make it clear who subsidises who? "Scotland now raises its own income tax, and pays their own benefits, and as a result we can now drop the standard rate of tax in England and Wales from 20% to 18%..."
You absolute dummy, income tax is a fraction of the country's revenue. Squeaky would be raising taxes not cutting them.
Where is dummy on the scale of insults? I was so looking forward to being a turnip!
Consider "dummy" as a small promotion and that you are showing early potential. But the road ahead to true turniphood is not an easy one. You would do well to remember that.
Some people have worked long hours and put in real effort to be awarded the honour of 'turnip'. You can't just waltz in here and wear the big hat, you know.
Comments
As I was saying this morning it was not capital but people that I would fear pouring out of Greece in uncontrollable numbers. The EU and the EZ have a very strong vested interest in making sure that the lights stay on, the water continues to flow and the sewage continues to be treated by people who are getting their wages.
Is an interesting profile, particular where James Galbraith, son of the famous J. K. Galbraith, described Varoufakis as "Yanis is the most intense and deep intellectual figure I've met in my generation," Of course what we cant see is the extent to which Tsipras, and altogether more mundane intellect is calling the shots. Interesting times.
A good illustration of the merits of using the internet too much versus spending time in real life.
"The European Central Bank's governing council is expected to turn off Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) for Greek banks at its meeting later today, according to well-placed sources."
https://twitter.com/yanisvaroufakis/status/615127339102531584
Because of course, the Scottish economy is just like Greece.
This is the sort of nonsense argument that has got Loyalists completely shut out of the debate. You talk nonsense. Scotland will not be faced with immediate financial crisis and dead banks because it is a relatively stable, first world economy with a highly diversified base.
The "deficit" is entirely based on fictitious accounting - for example the £3.5bn Scotland "pays" into the UK Infrastructure Plan (getting back about £200mn) and the £4bn Scotland is charged for Westminster's debt interest.
But you know these points, you're not even trying to argue a rational case, you just like to belittle Scotland.
Probably the most intellectually brilliant MP of the 20th century was Enoch Powell. Didn't stop him from being a poor politician. Brilliant people (and I'm not convinced that Varoufakis is, for that matter), often have either an intolerance for, or a lack of understanding of, those less intellectually gifted.
In any case, the proof is in the pudding with Varoufakis. If his game playing was that good, either he is after a very strange outcome or he wouldn't be where he is.
In any case, the proof is in the pudding with Varoufakis. If his game playing was that good, either he is after a very strange outcome or he wouldn't be where he is.
Isn't it obvious to everyone that being an expert in game theory doesn't mean you can win all the games?
Easier than dealing with the facts I guess.....
Perhaps one fine day it will finally compute that 'criticising SNP plans' is not synonymous with 'belittling Scotland'......
Cyprus, of course, had capital controls in the wake of its financial crisis. I think - but I could be wrong - that they are no longer in place.
Because of course, the Scottish economy is just like Greece.
This is the sort of nonsense argument that has got Loyalists completely shut out of the debate. You talk nonsense. Scotland will not be faced with immediate financial crisis and dead banks because it is a relatively stable, first world economy with a highly diversified base.
The "deficit" is entirely based on fictitious accounting - for example the £3.5bn Scotland "pays" into the UK Infrastructure Plan (getting back about £200mn) and the £4bn Scotland is charged for Westminster's debt interest.
But you know these points, you're not even trying to argue a rational case, you just like to belittle Scotland.
As your nationalism is of the blood and soil fundamentalist variety I can understand why you say these things, but if you are intelligent, you know you are wrong. Scotland will have to service its debt and manage its deficit from day one of independence. Its deficit will be far higher as a proportion of GDP than any other European country. Even Greece. That is the scenario against which it will have to raise money on the markets. Its economy is not diversified to any great extent, it is focused on just three areas: the public sector, oil and financial services. A blow to any one of these will prompt a major crisis. That might include the price of oil being $60 a barrel instead of $120, pension funds and others moving to England to ensure they remained in the same jurisdiction as their client base and retained a creditable lender of last resort, or cuts being made to public sector jobs. Should all three happen at the same time, of course, it would be calamitous, especially as in a Sterling-zone the Scottish government's economic and fiscal policies will be dictated by its creditors and the rUK. Again, for blood and soil nationalists such as yourself that will not matter, as there will be an international border between Scotland and England and that is what independence for you is all about. But it will have a significant and negative impact on the lives of most ordinary Scots, the most vulnerable above all.
And, as we both know, Nicola Sturgeon is a Loyalist.
I think the remaining capital controls for Cyprus were lifted 2 months ago.
As for the substantive point, it wasn't a scary story: in @DavidL's scenario that's exactly what would happen (it's what happened in Lehmans, for instance): the periphery is always sacrificed to protect the core.
Some analysts have tweeted that the ECB is likely to cap, but not end, the ELA.
And French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said the ECB "is independent but... I don't think it can cut off rations [for the Greeks]". He said "it's the Greek nation that is suffering".
I don't see how Peston can now say that he got the story right.
Regardless of efficiency over spending on Foreign Affairs and Defence, regardless of share of Voluntary Contribution to rUK debt interest payments, Scotland WILL NOT be paying £3.5bn per annum to the UK Infrastructure Plan for which it gets £200mn of spending (ironically this is mainly Renewables Investment which is being withdrawn).
That is an immediate £3.3bn saving on current budgets, taking Scottish potential Deficit well under the UK's level.
There are no grounds at all under which an Independent Scotland would continue paying into the UK Infrastructure Plan. It is an absolute, unarguable saving of £3,3bn
Some people have worked long hours and put in real effort to be awarded the honour of 'turnip'. You can't just waltz in here and wear the big hat, you know.
New Thread
Public sector revenue per capita (ex oil):
Scotland - £9,400
UK -£9,600
Public sector spending per capita:
Scotland - £12,500
UK - £11,200
Deficit per capita:
Scotland - £3,100
UK - £1,600
Source: http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2015/03/1422/1
Oil closes the deficit gap with the rest of the UK. In 2013/14 the oil revenue was £700 per person in Scotland, in 2013/14 it was half that, this year will come in at about £100 per person. However, the slowdown in the Scottish economy will increase the gap. In 2013/14 Scottish unemployment was 0.5% below the UK average, now it's 0.5% above.
This is where the IFS figure for Scotland's "extra" deficit comes from. At £1,500 per person higher than the UK, Scotland's deficit is £7.5 billion higher than its share of the UK deficit.
These figures do not include infrastructure spending in the rest of the UK. See the methodology page at http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2015/03/1422/10