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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Schrödinger’s referendum as Boris wants voters to vote both Yes and No to leaving the EU
BORIS JOHNSON is preparing to call for a “no” vote in Britain’s referendum on the European Union in an attempt to extract greater concessions from Brussels than David Cameron is demanding.
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He's crap at politics, though.
Comment seen in an in-game chat channel: " you just have to look a Greece to realize that reality and what people think have only a passing resemblance to each other"
During the UK election, in the same chat channel, a particularly poor play was described as being performing nearly as incompetently as Miliband eating a bacon sandwich, to the confusion of the Americans present.
Obviously, these comments aren't any more representative than random pub conversations, but they are a modern version of the same thing, giving some rough indication of popular mood in the appropriate demographic. When your sandwich eating is treated as the standard for incompetence by pretty non-political 20-somethings, that's a pretty good sign you've got an image problem.
Likewise, the comment quoted above suggests a lot of normal people think Greece has lost touch with reality.
Greece - two snap opinion polls suggest the Greeks will vote yes to the EU proposal. I suspect Tspiras is finished. Podemos in Spain take note.
I thought the Tories were a pro EU party?
This is a ridiculous proposal by Boris and it's why the result of the referendum should be enshrined in law. If we vote to leave and don't actually do it, why would the rest of the EU expect us to vote to leave again and actually do it?
Out of curiosity, that seems like a very cerebral sort of in-game chat. What's the game?
Nobody believes that Cameron will achieve anything material with his 'renegotiation', especially when he has made plain that he'll accept whatever is offered.
Boris is claiming that he'd be a cannier negotiator than Cameron. He's right.
Boris plays to the gallery too much and doesn't care about the detail. Cameron is actually pretty good at the negotiation lark.
"You start with a bag full of luck and an empty bag of experience. The trick is to fill the bag of experience before you empty the bag of luck."
(There is an old apocryphal story about the chief pilot for an unnamed airline who faced with a huge pile of applications on his desk, picks up half the letters and drops them in the waste bin, responding to the raised eyebrows of his secretary he explains that he only wants lucky pilots working for him)
Unusually moronic from Boris. It'll piss off both sides, and all reasonable people.
No means No. It means we want to bloody leave. And if you don't want us to leave, then vote Yes. Boris' plan is to campaign for something he doesn't want, it seems, then ignore the result if he achieves it.
Cameron is neither popular nor influential in the EU, this matters because that is the substance of the referendum, vis, he isn't going to come home with anything of substance.
Your legal training allows to to smoothly elide one with the other to score a point with the jury, but it's meaningless.
Robbie Gibb @RobbieGibb 33m33 minutes ago
@aedinandrew @afneil We have postponed the interview with Nick Clegg because of the terrible events in Tunisia.
Got to stress this question, alas, isn't asked on my behalf but someone published with the same chaps doing my books is at an early stage in a potential film deal.
I do think it has potential, although its very trendiness will attract environmentalists, if they're evangelical about it I can see that putting off people who just want to see cars drive quickly (speaking of which, it's still too damned slow).
Whilst I concur about Osborne, the biggest question will be whether he actually wants it. If he does, and gets it, we'll have a weird comparison between the antagonistic Blair/Brown relationship and premierships, and the more amicable Cameron/Osborne one.
The problem for Boris is that both Cameron and Osborne are there, mostly being sensible and he's left up the creek , etc.
There you go... decision made for you.
Pretending otherwise for the sake of winning an argment is just sad.
And of course yes I have decided to vote OUT no matter what Cameron comes back with. The EU cannot be trusted to keep its promises and Cameron is not asking for anything like a bare minimum needed to make any difference. Even if he gets everything he is asking for it will be no where near enough.
One of the main deterrents to voting for Out is the maniacal tendency of the Europhobes to treat everything from Brussels as an emanation of the antichrist.
It's not so much an evil organisation as an outdated one. The question is whether it can change enough to be worth sticking with, given its current direction. The signs are not promising and I shall have an invidious choice in a couple of years' time.
The argument for voting "yes" is even simpler - Nigel Farage
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/the-eu-and-britain.html
The lifting of the purdah is because it would otherwise restrict their ability to comment on anything of significance during the referendum period as almost every piece of government business has a European aspect
Britain is a significant global economy, with trading links internationally and a huge base of talented individuals.
Being in the EU has meaningful advantages, but it also has serious costs. The direction of travel is towards more integration of the core Eurozone and, as a result, it is imperative that adequate mechanisms are put in place to protect the interests of the "non-Eurozone" countries.
Failing that, there is a strong argument that we would be better off charting our own future as a friendly but independent partner to the Eurozone.
If the government spend a lot on pro-EU advertising it will undermine the legitimacy of the referendum. The only political advantage of this whole song and dance for Cameron is to put the question to bed - he won't want to undermine its legitimacy.
Still, both EU and Europe the same point applies. Eurosceptics do not have an irrational fear, they simply don't have the blind adherence that most of the europhiles seem to have.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33303105
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/27/us-eurozone-greece-poll-idUSKBN0P70RY20150627
57-29 or 47-33, with the latter question loaded by noting that the consequences of "Yes" would be painful. However, be careful - both polls seem to have been taken before the referendum was announced and Tsipras indicated he'd campaign for "No".
Boris's move seems tactically unwise, and I expect he'll reverse it soon in the usual cloud of bluster. I have form in underestimating him, but I wonder oif he hasn't be over-bought in the sense that people think he's more of a political mastermind than he actually is, based on his ability to beat Ken Livingstone.
Personally I just don't think he is able to get enough from the other leaders to make it worth it, but others might if they trust him enough.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jun/28/snp-scots-could-still-go-it-alone
What I do think that the story hints at is that there is a frustration with BOO and UKIP and the lack of a credible threat of withdrawal. Since the election (being kind) UKIP have behaved like a bunch of amateurish muppets and the idea that the British public would follow them to the nearest chip shop, let alone out of the EU, looks fantastical.
The recent polling indicating a large majority for In even before the frighteners are brought out has weakened Cameron's hand as well. With the EZ completely absorbed by the Greek tragedy unfolding in Athens Cameron needed something substantive to get the threat of a Brexit up the agenda. He hasn't got it and the opportunity to put our relationship with the EU on a better footing going forward is likely to be lost.
I can well imagine Boris and others coming up with such an analysis. What I cannot imagine for a moment is him throwing away his career in a sacrificial attempt to resolve the problem.
This gives us a current account deficit with the EU of £102 billion.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_382948.pdf
Outside of a small surplus in the balance of services of £10 billion there are no upsides to our business relationship with the EU.
"Greece will probably have to "announce a bank holiday on Monday, pending the introduction of capital controls", a source told the BBC's Robert Peston."
In this modern era of the internet and 24/7 news etc any deal will be micro-analysed to death. Nobody will be able to pull the wool over the eyes of the public as a whole. If any deal is a sham it will be revealed as such within days not years.
What is he nowadays? A handsome beardy in a jumper who tries to fly tourists into space.
I think we can mistake his anti-establishment persona with credibility. He's got media chops - but I doubt how many would be too persuaded by him that weren't already Inners.
Countries are the definition of pragmatic.