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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Big shake up in next LAB leader betting following Chukka Um

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  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Dr Fox,

    "Could you update me on the current wars, or recent terrorist incidents perpetrated in the name of Christianity? Or beheadings, burnings alive, kidnappings, mass burials, shootings of cartoonists etc. Thanks in advance."

    He believes that if he pops into the Bring and Buy sale at the local Church, he'll end up being horribly tortured to death for his atheist beliefs. Or even worse, they'll send the Jehovah's Witnesses round to see him.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Compiling a UKIP target list would be interesting. I wonder how many seats a 10% swing to them would deliver?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SophyRidgeSky: Understand Chuka Umunna decided to withdraw from race yesterday... just days after he launched leadership bid
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Cyclefree said:

    Isam may be fed up with your nitpicking but really this whataboutery is pathetic and morally repulsive.

    Yes - Christianity has been associated with awful things in the past etc. And there are some bad Christians around.

    But now it is being persecuted - horribly - all over the Middle East by people who are appallingly evil and who will, if they get the chance, do the same things to us here.

    Go and view that documentary: the 13 year old girl holed up with her family in St Matthew's monastery in Iraq, 2 miles from the front line, too poor to escape, who knows what happens to Yazidi girls when they are captured, but who - along with the others spoken to - will not give up her faith. The Jesuit priest in Damascus who is running a relief operation to feed thousands every day, Muslim and non-Muslim Syrians alike, who are suffering as a result of the civil war in their country. Walid Jumblatt, Druze leader, who says that if Christianity vanishes there is little hope for the survival of a moderate Islam in the Middle East. The Armenian lady talking about her grandparents and uncles killed by the Turks a century ago who has to live with the shrine to her relatives being destroyed by IS.

    There are vile things being done in the name of Islam today, absolutely. There are equally vile things being done in the name of Christianity in some of the more extreme parts of the world too. Being done today and not just in the past, though they get less media attention. This isn't trying to score points or say its a draw, there's probably quantitatively more vile things being done in the name of Islam but its not the only one used in that way in the world today.

    The problem is not the religion as it affects every one of the billions of Christians and Muslims across the globe, the problem is the sects that push this violence and the utterly unacceptable culture which need to be tackled whichever religion is associated.
    I can think of the recent disturbances in the Central African Republic, but where else in the world are Christians the persecutors?

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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    SeanT said:



    Fair enough. Good luck!

    I have found a method to fix it for my posts already.
    Simply delete everything between the first blockquote and the last blockquote.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    AndyJS said:

    Compiling a UKIP target list would be interesting. I wonder how many seats a 10% swing to them would deliver?

    This should help you, the 2020 swingometer:
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/2015/united_kingdom

    Ukip win about 9 seats with a swing of 10% from the Tories, 16 seats with a swing of 10% from Labour.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,071
    edited May 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: Understand Chuka Umunna decided to withdraw from race yesterday... just days after he launched leadership bid

    This story had better be worth it!
    Hoping it's @SeanT that's right, some sort of gay bondage hookup site profile would give amusement to everyone!
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Mary Creagh on Radio 4 evades giving a coherent answer to the 'Did Labour spend too much' question. Fail.
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    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Alistair

    Iain Martin is a rather sad old ex pat hack who knows precisely zero about the SNP. Salmond would never argue or brief for an unofficial poll. He has always been fiercely against that option. He would argue exactly the same line as Nicola on this ie it is a matter for the people and if the people so decide then it is irresistable. Pity silly old Iain didn't bother to read Salmond's book on this very point.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Alistair said:

    I am, all joking aside, completely astounded how Coulson has failed to damage Cameron.

    You shouldn't be. Why would he be damaged by the fact that someone who used to work for him lied to him? It was always a load of wishful thinking by the Guardian-reading classes that somehow this guilt-by-association would damage Cameron, but for some reason exactly the same people didn't seem to understand that by exactly the same reasoning Labour would be damaged by their closeness to NOTW.

    Voters have more sense. The LibDems were not damaged by Chris Huhne. Labour were not damaged by the various scandals under Blair. They weren't even damaged by the string of former MPs going to jail in the last parliament.
    Ironically, Labour's persecution of Coulson brought Crosby and Messina to the fore. Side-effects.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Compiling a UKIP target list would be interesting. I wonder how many seats a 10% swing to them would deliver?

    This should help you, the 2020 swingometer:
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/2015/united_kingdom

    Ukip win about 9 seats with a swing of 10% from the Tories, 16 seats with a swing of 10% from Labour.
    Whichever of Labour and Conservatives gets the most votes next time probably forms the Gov't.

    That seems quite fair to me.
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    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    TheScreamingEagles

    Oh I think you've squared off Cameron's potential problem.

    Let me see. Salmond knows Murdoch and met him in the full public eye.

    Cameron employed Coulson who is on trial for the criminal charge of perjury.

    Yep these are just the same potential problems!
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    FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    edited May 2015
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: Understand Chuka Umunna decided to withdraw from race yesterday... just days after he launched leadership bid

    This story had better be worth it!
    Hoping it's @SeanT that's right, some sort of gay bondage hookup site profile would give amusement to everyone!
    Oh give it up please.
    This is the language of hubris.
    Just leave labour to make their (fingers crossed) usual cock up.
    Keep the tories level headed and focused on keeping the economy level, rebalancing our nation and lancing the boil of the EU.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,033
    Miss DiCanio, like that chap who defected to Labour, enabling Cameron to become MP for Witney.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Plato said:
    Never underestimate the nastiniess of in-fighting.

    The Unions want their man/woman, and it wasn't Chuka
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    MrThompson,

    Let's talk about the UK. If you went into a London Church and started protesting about Christianity by holding up a naughty picture of Christ during a service, there would be an embarrassed silence. You might even get shouted at.

    If you went into a mosque during prayers with a picture of the Prophet (even a nice one), your reception might be different.


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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336

    Plato said:
    Never underestimate the nastiniess of in-fighting.

    The Unions want their man/woman, and it wasn't Chuka
    Think about how many Labourites got terrible stories printed in the press 2005-2010.....where the info came from, is anybodies guess....
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,033
    Mr. Slackbladder, heretics are hated more than heathens. John Julius Norwich referred to a saying in Byzantium about the time the Latin Church was being dickish towards them: Better the sultan's turban than the cardinal's hat.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Well Chukka pulling out has done my book a big favour.

    May have to lay off Burnham - he's getting too short.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    AndyJS said:

    Compiling a UKIP target list would be interesting. I wonder how many seats a 10% swing to them would deliver?

    Taking 5 off Con & Lab and adding 10 to UKIP gives 10 seats (4 off Con, 5 off Lab).
    Taking 7 off each and adding 14 to UKIP gives them 27 despite being 2.7% ahead of Labour (212).
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,071

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: Understand Chuka Umunna decided to withdraw from race yesterday... just days after he launched leadership bid

    This story had better be worth it!
    Hoping it's @SeanT that's right, some sort of gay bondage hookup site profile would give amusement to everyone!
    Oh give it up please.
    This is the language of hubris.
    Just leave labour to make their (fingers crossed) usual cock up.
    Keep the tories level headed and focused on keeping the economy level, rebalancing our nation and lancing the boil of the EU.
    Okay, but agree that Cameron couldn't have wished for a better start to the new Parliament than to see two opposition parties seemingly throwing bricks at each other in public, the LDs decimated and the Nats trying to tell him that they're actually in charge?
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,255
    edited May 2015
    SeanT said:

    Cyclefree said:


    There are vile things being done in the name of Islam today, absolutely. There are equally vile things being done in the name of Christianity in some of the more extreme parts of the world too. Being done today and not just in the past, though they get less media attention. This isn't trying to score points or say its a draw, there's probably quantitatively more vile things being done in the name of Islam but its not the only one used in that way in the world today.

    The problem is not the religion as it affects every one of the billions of Christians and Muslims across the globe, the problem is the sects that push this violence and the utterly unacceptable culture which need to be tackled whichever religion is associated.
    There really AREN'T "equally vile things being done in the name of Christianity". Show me the Christian Caliphate raping, looting, beheading and burning its way across a vast swathe of Asia, in the name of Jesus?

    Show me the Christian slaving, the Christian fatwas, the global Christian terrorism?

    One of the world's great religions has developed a kind of cancer, it is metastasising rapidly, and the major symptom is a march backwards to the "pure" but, to us, barbaric values and attitudes of its early years.

    That religion is Islam. It doesn't mean all Muslims think like this: it doesn't mean all Muslims are showing signs of infection. But tens of millions DO think like this, maybe hundreds of millions. And it's not going away. It is quite possibly getting worse.
    Quite. IS may not define Islam but they most certainly do have something to do with it. Ignoring that unpalatable fact helps no-one.

    And the argument which says that we must deal with bad Christians and bad Buddhists and bad Sikhs as well and at the same time - because, God forbid that we might be accused of discriminating against really bad people - ends up being an excuse for not doing anything about anyone.

    There is a moral obtuseness in the face of the obvious evil coming out of part of the Islamic Middle East which is both baffling and dangerous.

    Edmund Burke put it best: "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could only do a little"

  • Options

    Plato said:
    Never underestimate the nastiniess of in-fighting.
    The Unions want their man/woman, and it wasn't Chuka
    The Unions raise millions through the political levy each year. Only a part of it is eventually given to the national Labour party. They have a pool of money to fund a lot of staff, research and other activity.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    scotslass said:

    Alistair

    Iain Martin is a rather sad old ex pat hack who knows precisely zero about the SNP. Salmond would never argue or brief for an unofficial poll. He has always been fiercely against that option. He would argue exactly the same line as Nicola on this ie it is a matter for the people and if the people so decide then it is irresistable. Pity silly old Iain didn't bother to read Salmond's book on this very point.

    You don't think Eck was lubricated in the HoC yesterday and bragging about a second referendum ?

    You are prepared to stand by this ?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2015
    I can't see how it would matter if Umunna was gay anyway. It would probably do the country some good if a black gay man was leader of a mainstream party, as long as him being black and gay didn't mean all he talked about was being black and gay
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Finally got my bank card after 2weeks and so have followed up my tip from earlier in the week of backing Alan Johnson. Tiny stake at 270 odd on Betfair to win a couple of grand
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Guardian

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/14/snp-prepared-overrule-cameron-second-independence-referendum-scotland

    "The Scottish National party would be prepared to push ahead with a second independence referendum without David Cameron’s permission if the prime minister refuses any future demand to hold one, a senior party source in Westminster has indicated."

    Who could that have been ?

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    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    isam said:

    I can't see how it would matter if Umunna was gay anyway. It would probably do the country some good if a black gay man was leader of a mainstream party, as long as him being black and gay didn't mean all he talked about was being black and gay

    It'd make the anecdotes about the people he met on Hampstead Heath a bit more entertaining.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Peston: Am guest host of #HIGNFY for first time. We got news of @ChukaUmunna leadership withdrawal ½ way through. Few jokes culled. 9 tonight BBC1
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    isam said:

    Finally got my bank card after 2weeks and so have followed up my tip from earlier in the week of backing Alan Johnson. Tiny stake at 270 odd on Betfair to win a couple of grand

    Christ, how did you live without a bank card the last 2 weeks !
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,255

    Cyclefree said:

    That's not quite true, though. The leading scholars in Islam declared a while back that, while they deplored what IS was doing, they would not declare it unIslamic. If Islamic scholars - who may be presumed to know more about Islam than non-Muslims - won't declare it unIslamic then we had better listen to them and think about what that means.

    We have to consider the possibility - awful as it may be to contemplate - that while "fighting" may not define all of Islam - or even the best of it - it is a significant part of it.

    What IS are doing on the ground now - expulsions, the jizya tax, taking infidel women as booty, beheading of enemies etc - is almost certainly very similar to what the original Muslim armies did when Islam first emerged in the 7th century.

    We are not going to deal with IS and those who support them if we deny reality and believe only what we want to believe.

    Fight the good fight, onward Christian soldiers. God is on our (well your) side.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/ethics/war/religious/holywar.shtml
    Seventh (to seventeenth) century Christianity was no picnic either. Nor were the Norse faiths or practically any others existing in the same era.

    The issue isn't the choice of religion, the issue is a culture that belongs to an era of history that belongs so far in the past.
    The culture is the religion. It is impossible - seriously - to understand the culture of the Middle East and the people living in it without understanding the very central role which Islam has played and continues to play in it.

    Only someone - and I don't mean to be personal here - from a largely secular West who does not understand that a culture encompasses the religion or religions of the people, that religion and culture are not two separate things - not even here in the West - could say that. Islam is a way of life, covering all aspects of life, for those who follow it. Only a West deracinated from its own past when Christianity was - in the same way - a way of life for all aspects of life consistently fails to understand the appeal of Islam and the challenge that it poses when the Islam that spreads is of the violent hateful kind rather than the moderate peaceful kind we - and no doubt millions of Muslims - would like it to be.

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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Plato said:
    No. Timescale's all wrong for a start.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Cyclefree said:

    SeanT said:

    Cyclefree said:


    There are vile things being done in the name of Islam today, absolutely. There are equally vile things being done in the name of Christianity in some of the more extreme parts of the world too. Being done today and not just in the past, though they get less media attention. This isn't trying to score points or say its a draw, there's probably quantitatively more vile things being done in the name of Islam but its not the only one used in that way in the world today.

    The problem is not the religion as it affects every one of the billions of Christians and Muslims across the globe, the problem is the sects that push this violence and the utterly unacceptable culture which need to be tackled whichever religion is associated.
    There really AREN'T "equally vile things being done in the name of Christianity". Show me the Christian Caliphate raping, looting, beheading and burning its way across a vast swathe of Asia, in the name of Jesus?

    Show me the Christian slaving, the Christian fatwas, the global Christian terrorism?

    One of the world's great religions has developed a kind of cancer, it is metastasising rapidly, and the major symptom is a march backwards to the "pure" but, to us, barbaric values and attitudes of its early years.

    That religion is Islam. It doesn't mean all Muslims think like this: it doesn't mean all Muslims are showing signs of infection. But tens of millions DO think like this, maybe hundreds of millions. And it's not going away. It is quite possibly getting worse.
    Quite. IS may not define Islam but they most certainly do have something to do with it. Ignoring that unpalatable fact helps no-one.

    And the argument which says that we must deal with bad Christians and bad Buddhists and bad Sikhs as well and at the same time - because, God forbid that we might be accused of discriminating against really bad people - ends up being an excuse for not doing anything about anyone.

    There is a moral obtuseness in the face of the obvious evil coming out of part of the Islamic Middle East which is both baffling and dangerous.

    Edmund Burke put it best: "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could only do a little"

    Methodist suicide bombers are pretty rare.
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    FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    snip

    This story had better be worth it!
    Hoping it's @SeanT that's right, some sort of gay bondage hookup site profile would give amusement to everyone!
    Oh give it up please.
    This is the language of hubris.
    Just leave labour to make their (fingers crossed) usual cock up.
    Keep the tories level headed and focused on keeping the economy level, rebalancing our nation and lancing the boil of the EU.
    Okay, but agree that Cameron couldn't have wished for a better start to the new Parliament than to see two opposition parties seemingly throwing bricks at each other in public, the LDs decimated and the Nats trying to tell him that they're actually in charge?
    Yes you are right in this respect. I have been saying for months that this was an election that would make people's heads explode.
    And as far as I can see Farage is holed below the water line and sinking by the stern. Furthermore we see northern labour local authority leaders in a daze as they agree with George Osborne. We see the electoral arithmetic favouring tories for the first time in decades with boundary reform to follow.
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9418

    But lets not cast any more runes. Lets let the oppositions worry about themselves and the government needs to just get on with it and face each problem with as much equanimity as it can muster as each one turns up.
    (''Equanimity (Latin: æquanimitas having an even mind; aequus even animus mind/soul) is a state of psychological stability and composure which is undisturbed by experience of or exposure to emotions, pain, or other phenomena that may cause others to lose the balance of their mind.'')


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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    More popcorn please. You couldn't make it up..
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    It's not pleasant to an able politician's career go up in smoke like this, whatever the reason.
    I just wonder whether his very evident ambition will allow him to remain in the Commons in a rather aimless capacity. Should the right job offer come along at home or elsewhere, I wouldn't be surprised to see him quit politics sooner rather than later.

    The good news for the Tories is that the Labour leadership contest now looks like a shoo-in for Burnham.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Finally got my bank card after 2weeks and so have followed up my tip from earlier in the week of backing Alan Johnson. Tiny stake at 270 odd on Betfair to win a couple of grand

    Christ, how did you live without a bank card the last 2 weeks !
    Probably saved me money! I would've backed Ukip over 2.5 for a lot more had I access to funds, and probably Tory minority too after the exit poll.. Maybe majority too but a net gain the lack of card methinks!
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,022
    edited May 2015
    watford30 said:

    Mary Creagh on Radio 4 evades giving a coherent answer to the 'Did Labour spend too much' question. Fail.

    Yes, it's only Liz who has dealt with that question capably, so far. What little I have seen of her does show that she has a different approach to interviews - actually answering rather than avoiding questions. And I think that would have considerable appeal to voters ... I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that Labour would simply be mad not to elect her as leader. But we shall see.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    TGOHF said:

    Guardian

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/14/snp-prepared-overrule-cameron-second-independence-referendum-scotland

    "The Scottish National party would be prepared to push ahead with a second independence referendum without David Cameron’s permission if the prime minister refuses any future demand to hold one, a senior party source in Westminster has indicated."

    Who could that have been ?

    Eck? Mind you, feed any of them a plate of chips, a sliced white loaf, and a few large shandies and they'll come up with similar nonsense.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    No, No, No! Cameron slaps down Sturgeon demands and tells her to forget about another referendum during 'frank' first talks since the election

    Prime Minister travelled to Edinburgh for face-to-face talks with SNP chief
    Cameron ruled out a second referendum or giving Edinburgh an EU veto
    He also refused to grant Holyrood immediate new powers other than those already agreed in the wake of the referendum last year
    But Mr Cameron agreed to look at granting further powers in the future
    Scotland is set to be given responsibility for 60 per cent of its spending
    But Ms Sturgeon said the offer did not go far enough following the election
    Comes after she was forced to slap down SNP calls for second referendum
    But Scotland's First Minister hit back, insisting claims were 'totally wrong'


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3082449/SNP-plot-unofficial-second-referendum-Plan-hold-vote-without-PM-s-approval-Cameron-Sturgeon-meet-talks-today.html#ixzz3aD8dwp2P
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,071
    watford30 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Guardian

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/14/snp-prepared-overrule-cameron-second-independence-referendum-scotland

    "The Scottish National party would be prepared to push ahead with a second independence referendum without David Cameron’s permission if the prime minister refuses any future demand to hold one, a senior party source in Westminster has indicated."

    Who could that have been ?

    Eck? Mind you, feed any of them a plate of chips, a sliced white loaf, and a few large shandies and they'll come up with similar nonsense.
    I fear a somewhat rude awakening for the Nats next week, as they belatedly realise that the business of Parliament will not be purely set to their own agenda, rather that of the majority in the House.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    On Twitter Damian McBride said he is a good friend of Ed Balls...I thought Ed said he didn't know him and actually called him Mr.McBride...even though they shared an office at the time...strange that..
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Alistair said:

    Iain Martin ‏@iainmartin1 4 mins4 minutes ago

    Am told Nats at Holyrood are furious that mystery someone - codeword Alex - has been regaling Commons hacks with his plans for #indyref2

    Fun and games.

    I am astounded that Iain Martin of all people has managed to find an anti Alex Salmond story after a mere week. Unbelievable.
    I'm shocked. Shocked!

    But I'm not sure which has shocked me more.

    That the SNP want independence or that Iain Martin is ranting about the SNP again.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Wasn't Tom Watson who shared an office with McBride? Or were they all sandwiched in a single office?

    On Twitter Damian McBride said he is a good friend of Ed Balls...I thought Ed said he didn't know him and actually called him Mr.McBride...even though they shared an office at the time...strange that..

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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    watford30 said:

    Mary Creagh on Radio 4 evades giving a coherent answer to the 'Did Labour spend too much' question. Fail.

    Yes, it's only Liz who has dealt with that question capably, so far. What little I have seen of her does show that she has a different approach to interviews - actually answering rather than avoiding questions. And I think that would have considerable appeal to voters ... I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that Labour would simply be mad not to elect her as leader. But we shall see.
    Answering questions in a straightforward manner is probably all that is required to win the public over now
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    @ SeanT et al re Islam

    It is not just where the extremist end of the religion resides that is important. It is where the centre is, particularly the most influential centres. And theses influential centres do not reside in moderate Islam. They reside in Mecca and Teheran, where women have few rights, gays and adulterers are stoned to death, other religions are banned from proselytizing, apostasy is a death sentence, and atheism little better. That is what is wrong with Islam, and that is what enables and legitimizes the extremes.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Is CU now out of the running to be Labour's next London Mayor?
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    For those who resent Twitter links - think again.

    Paddy Power ‏@paddypower 5m5 minutes ago
    JUSTICE REFUND! We're refunding all bets on Chuka Umunna to be next Labour party leader! #PPValue
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Yes, confirmed earlier - saw it on Twitter
    dr_spyn said:

    Is CU now out of the running to be Labour's next London Mayor?

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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TGOHF said:

    Guardian

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/14/snp-prepared-overrule-cameron-second-independence-referendum-scotland

    "The Scottish National party would be prepared to push ahead with a second independence referendum without David Cameron’s permission if the prime minister refuses any future demand to hold one, a senior party source in Westminster has indicated."

    Who could that have been ?

    Given that the SNP party position is that they don't need permission from Westminster to hold a second referendum that's hardly news.
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited May 2015
    isam said:

    Finally got my bank card after 2weeks and so have followed up my tip from earlier in the week of backing Alan Johnson. Tiny stake at 270 odd on Betfair to win a couple of grand

    An interesting punt, but by 2020 the Postie will be 70 (almost to the day) and therefore too old.
    Shame really as he has considerable appeal across the party divide, but probably lacks that vital spark of ambition.

    Both of his autobiographical volumes are excellent reads btw and make great gifts I have found.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284
    Cyclefree Since when has writing some great intellectual paper been a requirement for leadership? She speaks reasonably is bright and offers a good contrast to Cameron and Osborne while also having links to the south and north of England and Scotland, in my view she is Labour's best candidate
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    Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    edited May 2015

    It's not pleasant to an able politician's career go up in smoke like this, whatever the reason.
    I just wonder whether his very evident ambition will allow him to remain in the Commons in a rather aimless capacity. Should the right job offer come along at home or elsewhere, I wouldn't be surprised to see him quit politics sooner rather than later.

    The good news for the Tories is that the Labour leadership contest now looks like a shoo-in for Burnham.

    Yep. Yvette is just as in denial about overspending but she also has the problem of not looking normal. A normal person hates Ed Balls, yet Yvette actually married him. Tough to explain, like the Latvian homophobes.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,071
    dr_spyn said:

    For those who resent Twitter links - think again.

    Paddy Power ‏@paddypower 5m5 minutes ago
    JUSTICE REFUND! We're refunding all bets on Chuka Umunna to be next Labour party leader! #PPValue

    Is that why they have the most over-round book on this market?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Compiling a UKIP target list would be interesting. I wonder how many seats a 10% swing to them would deliver?

    This should help you, the 2020 swingometer:
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/2015/united_kingdom

    Ukip win about 9 seats with a swing of 10% from the Tories, 16 seats with a swing of 10% from Labour.
    Thanks, interesting site.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    dr_spyn said:

    For those who resent Twitter links - think again.

    Paddy Power ‏@paddypower 5m5 minutes ago
    JUSTICE REFUND! We're refunding all bets on Chuka Umunna to be next Labour party leader! #PPValue

    I'm not surprised - Paddy will want the repeat business from the mugs that backed him at sub 2s.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Finally got my bank card after 2weeks and so have followed up my tip from earlier in the week of backing Alan Johnson. Tiny stake at 270 odd on Betfair to win a couple of grand

    An interesting punt, but by 2020 the Postie be 70 (almost to the day) and therefore too old.
    Shame really as he has considerable appeal across the party divide, but probably lacks that vital spark of ambition.

    Both of his autobiographical volumes are excellent reads btw and make great gifts I have found.
    Well obv I don't expect it to win!

    But if he was encouraged to stand last year aged one year younger than he is now, maybe he could be leader for a couple of years now while they get things sorted?

    Who knows but £12 to win £3k seemed worth a pop
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    heseltineheseltine Posts: 50

    isam said:

    Finally got my bank card after 2weeks and so have followed up my tip from earlier in the week of backing Alan Johnson. Tiny stake at 270 odd on Betfair to win a couple of grand

    An interesting punt, but by 2020 the Postie will be 70 (almost to the day) and therefore too old.
    Shame really as he has considerable appeal across the party divide, but probably lacks that vital spark of ambition.

    Both of his autobiographical volumes are excellent reads btw and make great gifts I have found.
    How about Alan Johnson to run as Londn Mayor?
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    Looks like the Scouser is tied-on. I look forward to Dave's Harry Enfied-style "calm down, calm down" routine at PMQs.

    Of course, if it is Kendall (this news must really boost her chances too) then he can re-use his Michael Winner version...

    Actually, I think Kendall does present more of a challenge for Dave at PMQs - the Flashman routine definitely won't cut it.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284
    Speedy Agree

    Jeb was always the brighter brother, but by far the worse politician, as shown when he lost the Florida governorship in 1994 while George W unexpectedly won in Texas
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    Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939

    Looks like the Scouser is tied-on. I look forward to Dave's Harry Enfied-style "calm down, calm down" routine at PMQs.

    Of course, if it is Kendall (this news must really boost her chances too) then he can re-use his Michael Winner version...

    Actually, I think Kendall does present more of a challenge for Dave at PMQs - the Flashman routine definitely won't cut it.

    If Butcher does win, then a key Tory challenge must be to make him actually cry in the House.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2015
    because mascara will fall on the floor?

    Looks like the Scouser is tied-on. I look forward to Dave's Harry Enfied-style "calm down, calm down" routine at PMQs.

    Of course, if it is Kendall (this news must really boost her chances too) then he can re-use his Michael Winner version...

    Actually, I think Kendall does present more of a challenge for Dave at PMQs - the Flashman routine definitely won't cut it.

    If Butcher does win, then a key Tory challenge must be to make him actually cry in the House.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited May 2015
    Plato said:

    Yes, confirmed earlier - saw it on Twitter

    dr_spyn said:

    Is CU now out of the running to be Labour's next London Mayor?

    I know CU is Not To Stand for the leadership.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    MTimT said:

    @ SeanT et al re Islam

    It is not just where the extremist end of the religion resides that is important. It is where the centre is, particularly the most influential centres. And theses influential centres do not reside in moderate Islam. They reside in Mecca and Teheran, where women have few rights, gays and adulterers are stoned to death, other religions are banned from proselytizing, apostasy is a death sentence, and atheism little better. That is what is wrong with Islam, and that is what enables and legitimizes the extremes.

    Just seen Cyclefree's posts upthread, particularly on Islamic scholars not being willing to condemn ISIS as un-Islamic and the central and inextricable role of Islam in the region's culture. Very well said.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    heseltine said:

    isam said:

    Finally got my bank card after 2weeks and so have followed up my tip from earlier in the week of backing Alan Johnson. Tiny stake at 270 odd on Betfair to win a couple of grand

    An interesting punt, but by 2020 the Postie will be 70 (almost to the day) and therefore too old.
    Shame really as he has considerable appeal across the party divide, but probably lacks that vital spark of ambition.

    Both of his autobiographical volumes are excellent reads btw and make great gifts I have found.
    How about Alan Johnson to run as Londn Mayor?
    A by election in Hull!

    I'll back Ukip! Haha
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    Alistair said:

    Given that the SNP party position is that they don't need permission from Westminster to hold a second referendum that's hardly news.

    Whether the Scottish Parliament has the legislative competence to do something or not is a pure question of the construction of the Scotland Act 1998 for the courts (Imperial Tobacco Ltd v Lord Advocate 2013 SC (UKSC) 153, 159-160 per Lord Hope of Craighead DPSC). The SNP's position is wholly irrelevant.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Compiling a UKIP target list would be interesting. I wonder how many seats a 10% swing to them would deliver?

    This should help you, the 2020 swingometer:
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/2015/united_kingdom

    Ukip win about 9 seats with a swing of 10% from the Tories, 16 seats with a swing of 10% from Labour.
    Thanks, interesting site.
    I plugged in a 12% swing from UKIP, going 4 to Con, 4 to Lab, 2 to LD and 2 to Green: roughly the source of the kipper vote. The Con and Lab seats changed by zero.

    The existence or extinction of UKIP does not seem to matter to the state of play in the Commons.
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    isam said:

    isam said:

    Finally got my bank card after 2weeks and so have followed up my tip from earlier in the week of backing Alan Johnson. Tiny stake at 270 odd on Betfair to win a couple of grand

    An interesting punt, but by 2020 the Postie be 70 (almost to the day) and therefore too old.
    Shame really as he has considerable appeal across the party divide, but probably lacks that vital spark of ambition.

    Both of his autobiographical volumes are excellent reads btw and make great gifts I have found.
    Well obv I don't expect it to win!

    But if he was encouraged to stand last year aged one year younger than he is now, maybe he could be leader for a couple of years now while they get things sorted?

    Who knows but £12 to win £3k seemed worth a pop
    Very fair comment and like I said an interesting punt ..... the sort one hopes might come up once during one's betting lifetime!
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    AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy Agree

    Jeb was always the brighter brother, but by far the worse politician, as shown when he lost the Florida governorship in 1994 while George W unexpectedly won in Texas

    And beat Ann Richards, one of the best retail politicians in US History.

    Her 1988 DNC speech is well worth watching for those that haven't seen i.
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    heseltine said:

    isam said:

    Finally got my bank card after 2weeks and so have followed up my tip from earlier in the week of backing Alan Johnson. Tiny stake at 270 odd on Betfair to win a couple of grand

    An interesting punt, but by 2020 the Postie will be 70 (almost to the day) and therefore too old.
    Shame really as he has considerable appeal across the party divide, but probably lacks that vital spark of ambition.

    Both of his autobiographical volumes are excellent reads btw and make great gifts I have found.
    How about Alan Johnson to run as Londn Mayor?
    The personal intrusion into his private life would be even greater were he stand for London Mayor, so therefore I doubt it very much.
    Should you disagree however, he's on offer at best odds of 14/1 with bet365.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    @Alistair How many extra votes would Labour have needed to get

    a) Most seats
    b) Majority
    c) Most seats Scotland
    d) Majority in Scotland.

    For most seats in Scotland, Labour are 258169 votes behind the SNP but this includes Orkney and Shetland (as I've just ranked it by absolute vote numbers) and some other seats where the Libs are the clear second place.

    There's only two seats in Scotland where Labour are less than 5000 votes behind - and they are 3718 in East Ren and 4102 in Na h-Eileanan an Iar which is an obvious special case.

    I think c and d are pretty much impossible.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @craigawoodhouse: Heavily suspect the Labour leadership shenanigans aren't over today - Tristram action expected shortly.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,033
    Mr. P, that's a shame, I would've liked Hunt to lead Labour.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,748
    Oooh

    @craigawoodhouse: Heavily suspect the Labour leadership shenanigans aren't over today - Tristram action expected shortly.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Plato said:
    Never underestimate the nastiniess of in-fighting.

    The Unions want their man/woman, and it wasn't Chuka
    This fight is nothing.

    The SLAB cats in a sack battle that's about to engulf the party (whether Murphy is there or not) is going to be absolutely spectacular.
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    There are two possible reasons for Chuka withdrawal, crap excuse about being in the public eye ignored.

    1. Scandal
    2. Realising the next leader is highly unlikely to become PM.

    The fact that he's briefed that he won't run for London Mayor, a high profile post he would probably get, my money is on 1.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,748
    Please let there be a scandal involving Tristram Hunt and hookers he forced to dress up as nuns
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Oooh

    @craigawoodhouse: Heavily suspect the Labour leadership shenanigans aren't over today - Tristram action expected shortly.

    It's really annoying when you clog up the threads with Twitter spam like that...
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    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    TGOHF

    Yes given that Salmond was all present and correct in the Scottish Parly yesterday!
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    Gareth Thomas has launched a campaign to become Labour's nominee for London Mayor, emphasising his Co-op Party credentials. Nothing against him, but I think it's late in the day to get going.

    Looks like the Scouser is tied-on. I look forward to Dave's Harry Enfied-style "calm down, calm down" routine at PMQs.

    Of course, if it is Kendall (this news must really boost her chances too) then he can re-use his Michael Winner version...

    Actually, I think Kendall does present more of a challenge for Dave at PMQs - the Flashman routine definitely won't cut it.

    If Butcher does win, then a key Tory challenge must be to make him actually cry in the House.
    Um, isn't there an intermittently applied site rule that we don't think up silly names for politicians we don't like (Cameraon, etc.), partly because it makes the site obscure for newcomers and partly because it's just playground stuff?

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    Please let there be a scandal involving Tristram Hunt and hookers he forced to dress up as nuns

    Sounds like something to bring the NOTW back for.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284
    AllyPolly Yes, the one where she said Bush Snr had a 'foot in his mouth'
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtIFhiqS_TY
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    Oooh

    @craigawoodhouse: Heavily suspect the Labour leadership shenanigans aren't over today - Tristram action expected shortly.

    Game of Thrones has nothing on labour at the moment.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284
    edited May 2015
    Lucian Fletcher It was clearly personal reasons and intrusion of some form or other, after 10 years in government all governing parties are vulnerable, even Kinnock would have probably beaten Thatcher in 1992 had she stayed on, he had a big lead over her from 1989
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    JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 378
    Plato

    "No, No, No! Cameron slaps down Sturgeon demands and tells her to forget about another referendum during 'frank' first talks since the election"

    If and when the people of Scotland want another Referendum there will be one

    If and when the people of Scotland want independence, they will have it.

    It really is that simple, no matter what huffing and puffing goes on.
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    Oooh

    @craigawoodhouse: Heavily suspect the Labour leadership shenanigans aren't over today - Tristram action expected shortly.

    Game of Thrones has nothing on labour at the moment.
    They really need to get as much of the poison out of their system as possible over the next few days while UKIP is a comedy show.

    Oh, as I have not been around for a while, is there a post-election piss up planned at DD's? Or have I missed it? Might have a chance to do some day shifts next month and could plan around, maybe.
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    macisbackmacisback Posts: 382

    watford30 said:

    Mary Creagh on Radio 4 evades giving a coherent answer to the 'Did Labour spend too much' question. Fail.

    Yes, it's only Liz who has dealt with that question capably, so far. What little I have seen of her does show that she has a different approach to interviews - actually answering rather than avoiding questions. And I think that would have considerable appeal to voters ... I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that Labour would simply be mad not to elect her as leader. But we shall see.
    Is she another Union stooge, can't make my mind up. I suppose though even if she is as I expect she would be preferable to Burnham.

    Can't see Labour winning with Union puppets. I thought the lesson of Eddy would have got through even someone as pig headed as Lenny.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    JP J2.Get on with it then..
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    edited May 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @craigawoodhouse: Heavily suspect the Labour leadership shenanigans aren't over today - Tristram action expected shortly.

    What the hell...at this rate Dennis Skinner will have to stand for leader...
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Nothing to do with the fact that Hunt and Chuka at the leading Blairites... no?
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    edited May 2015
    JPJ2 said:

    Plato

    "No, No, No! Cameron slaps down Sturgeon demands and tells her to forget about another referendum during 'frank' first talks since the election"

    If and when the people of Scotland want another Referendum there will be one

    If and when the people of Scotland want independence, they will have it.

    It really is that simple, no matter what huffing and puffing goes on.

    But wasn't it ever thus?

    "If and when".

    You could say the same about Wales. Or Yorkshire. Or the Isle of Wight.

    It's a bloody big "if" and a bloody big "when".
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Oh, Jim Murphy's career is over...

    @politicshome: .@LucyMPowell backs Jim Murphy (@JimForScotland) to remain as @scottishlabour leader: http://t.co/vTutKGgxM8 http://t.co/AOojLoeUZE
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    BETTING POST.

    No idea how interested anyone here is in cycling but Alberto Contador has dislocated his shoulder and his chance of winning the Giro d'Italia has plummeted (he may not even finish to gear up for a better shot at the Tour de France ).

    Richie Porte could go odds on tomorrow if he performs well on a big mountain finish, if he wins that stage, his odds will definitely drop below evens. At that point he will become a very good value Lay.

    He has never performed for an entire three week tour, he will have bad days given his history and he won't win the giro. That's my opinion so DYOR.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @schofieldkevin: And then there were 5 (again)? Tristram Hunt set to make a statement within the hour.

    @MrHarryCole: The Hon Dr Tristram Hunt, MP has the smallest mandate of any Member of Parliament: http://t.co/Worvf9cFob

    @MrHarryCole: Just 19% of Hunt's constituency voted for him. http://t.co/Worvf9cFob He is not a winner.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    Scott_P said:

    @schofieldkevin: And then there were 5 (again)? Tristram Hunt set to make a statement within the hour.

    @MrHarryCole: The Hon Dr Tristram Hunt, MP has the smallest mandate of any Member of Parliament: http://t.co/Worvf9cFob

    @MrHarryCole: Just 19% of Hunt's constituency voted for him. http://t.co/Worvf9cFob He is not a winner.

    Look like the Sunday's are going to be worth buying....
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    scotslass said:

    TGOHF

    Yes given that Salmond was all present and correct in the Scottish Parly yesterday!

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/salmond-outed-as-second-referendum-snp-source-1-3774131

    "DAVID Cameron has outed Alex Salmond as the source of reports suggesting the SNP would press ahead with a second independence referendum against the UK Government’s will."

    Yer tea's out scotslass...
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    It's going to be Burnham...
This discussion has been closed.