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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Big shake up in next LAB leader betting following Chukka Um

SystemSystem Posts: 11,700
edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Big shake up in next LAB leader betting following Chukka Umanna’s withdrawal from the race

The @TelePolitics report on Chukka Ununna quitting the LAB leadership race.http://t.co/xSMBu8PxNq pic.twitter.com/gOW0Avmm09

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    Crick: Umunna was upset the press doorstepped not just his mother, but his girlfriend's parents and even her 102-year old grandmother
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2015
    I have no inside track and have zoned out a little from politics since the election - but on back of the fag packet probabilities, surely burnham is >50%?

    The 2/1 looks decent.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    I think is good news for Liz Kendall and Tristram Hunt.

    I would be chuffed if either of them won it, for differing reasons.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Crick: Umunna was upset the press doorstepped not just his mother, but his girlfriend's parents and even her 102-year old grandmother

    And so he took his bat and ball home from standing for leader rather than making a formal compliant about their behaviour?...hmmmm......

    Sounds more like trying to get the sympathy spin in. If this scoop is in the Sun or Times, we all know who will be on his side.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    What a week for the tories, a majority out of the blue and chaos in all other parties.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    edited May 2015
    Surely Kendall will get 35 nominations, and now has the entire new labour vote behind her. She must be a shoe in with the membership?

    Has Hunt thought better of it after his mauling last night? Might AJ or HH still run as the unity candidate. Lord knows Labour could use some unity atm.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    edited May 2015
    Let it be Tristram. Let it be Tristam.

    :smiley:
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Pong said:

    Looks to me like its Burnhams to lose - the 2/1 looks decent IMO

    Not 2/1 any more
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Crick: Umunna was upset the press doorstepped not just his mother, but his girlfriend's parents and even her 102-year old grandmother

    And he didn't think that was going to happen and prepare for the possibility because?

    If that is what it is, he'll be back in a few years depending on whether the new Leader is really unpopular.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    blackburn63 said:

    What a week for the tories, a majority out of the blue and chaos in all other parties.

    All but one...
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Mr. 63, except the SNP.

    I wonder if Cameron and Sturgeon shared a laugh at the carnage of their opponents.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pong said:

    Looks to me like its Burnhams to lose - the 2/1 looks decent IMO

    Not 2/1 any more
    boo!
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    edited May 2015
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Crick: Umunna was upset the press doorstepped not just his mother, but his girlfriend's parents and even her 102-year old grandmother

    And he didn't think that was going to happen and prepare for the possibility because?

    If that is what it is, he'll be back in a few years depending on whether the new Leader is really unpopular.
    Chuka will never be Lab leader. He is so unsuited to a high profile leadership role it's unreal.

    He might not even be in politics in 2020...

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    A fight with the unions may be good for Liz in the long run.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991
    Mail trying to help out Kendall by rallying the New Labour vote?
  • Options
    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Crick: Umunna was upset the press doorstepped not just his mother, but his girlfriend's parents and even her 102-year old grandmother

    And he didn't think that was going to happen and prepare for the possibility because?


    Thin skinned, and poorly prepared. Neither are good qualities for a Party Leader.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I really don't buy this Prince Charming bit from Chuka that he didn't expect his girlfriend or her granny to get doorstepped. It happens to every politician nowadays.

    If he was worried about his girlfriend's family - he wouldn't have posed with her a few days ago. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11595641/Chuka-Umunna-appears-in-public-with-girlfriend-as-he-sets-out-stall-for-leadership.html

    He's been on the frontline for YEARS.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    Pulpstar said:

    A fight with the unions may be good for Liz in the long run.

    But it was the unions that foisted Ed on Labour
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    Feck it, I'm putting a tenner on Alan Johnson at 100/1
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    A fight with the unions may be good for Liz in the long run.

    But it was the unions that foisted Ed on Labour
    Precisely.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    By the way Mike, you seem to have accidentally appended "Andy" to the PP link ^ in your tweet.

    If anyone's clicking through, delete "andy" and it'll get you where you want to go :)
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    It won't be Hunt.

    Even Labour aren't that mad.

    Mind you, if the Conservatives really have a second war chest, they could fund a hundred thousand new Labour members and then back Hunt all the way.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Stone him.
    John Terry spends £150,000 ripping up lawn at his £4.3m mansion and replacing it with artificial grass

    Former England player installed fake turf and fishing lake at previous home
    After buying former home of golfer Colin Montgomerie, he's done it again
    It is thought the alteration is so that he does not have to mow the lawn
    Agent says it one of many changes Terry has made to the property


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3082944/John-Terry-replaces-lawn-4-3million-mansion-fake-grass.html#ixzz3aCd2SnH5
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,895
    Mortimer said:

    Surely Kendall will get 35 nominations, and now has the entire new labour vote behind her. She must be a shoe in with the membership?

    Has Hunt thought better of it after his mauling last night? Might AJ or HH still run as the unity candidate. Lord knows Labour could use some unity atm.

    The same membership which is receiving an influx of union members?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    edited May 2015
    watford30 said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Crick: Umunna was upset the press doorstepped not just his mother, but his girlfriend's parents and even her 102-year old grandmother

    And he didn't think that was going to happen and prepare for the possibility because?


    Thin skinned, and poorly prepared. Neither are good qualities for a Party Leader.
    Indeed. The hype about Chuka has been bizarre given he has never looked remotely suited to a leadership role.

    The very first time I saw him on Question Time (after hearing everybody raving about how he was "a British Obama") I knew he was a dud.

    He carries himself appallingly... Lab's had a lucky escape.

  • Options
    DavidBrackenburyDavidBrackenbury Posts: 353
    The best thing the Unions can do is to stop manipulating the process...
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Surely this is good news for Mary Creagh? I was baffled as to why she was entering the race yesterday when it was already too crowded. But if she'd been tipped off by Chuka in some way that would explain a lot.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    edited May 2015
    I think we need to try and see politicians as the human brings they are rather than apply ludicrously high standards of emotional capacity

    When I was up for selection for the Ukip candidacy in Islington I spoke to a kipper PPC that had a decent chance of winning his seat (until I backed him!)... He told me to prepare for everything i had ever said or done to be thrown at me, and the same applying to my family

    Conservatives were paying students to trawl the internet and for any dirt that might be used by them or the media

    Given that I have oap parents on high blood pressure tablets, I thought what is more worthwhile... Their health or my vague ambition? Obviously I was going to be an also ran in an unwinnable seat (they all were!) but Umunna obviously has the same concerns at a higher level and much as I don't rate of agree with him politically, I have to empathise and understand his decision
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2015
    The press are incredibly thorough at trying to dig up dirt. When Ian Blair was proposed as Met Police Commissioner, I got a phone call from a Mail reporter - I knew Ian quite well at Oxford. I imagine they were digging for stories about drugs or other youthful misdemeanours, although the journalist didn't approach it as crudely as that. What really impressed me was that they had already built up a very detailed picture of who Blair's friends had been and had carefully followed the links (which was how they came to call me). It really was a thorough piece of work.

    (And, no, I didn't give them any dirt!)
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Oh really? Evil Tories PAYING students?
    isam said:

    I think we need to try and see politicians as the human brings they are rather than apply ludicrously high standards of emotional capacity

    When I was up for selection for the Ukip candy aft in Islington I spoke to a kipper PPC that had a decent chance of winning his seat (until I backed him!)... He told me to prepare for everything j had ever said it done to me thrown at me, and the same applying to my family

    Conservatives were paying students to trawl the internet and for any dirt that might be used by them or the media

    Given that I have parent in high blood pressure tablets, I thought what us more worthwhile? Obviously I was going to be an also ran in an unwinnable seat (they all were!) but Umunna obviously has the same concerns at a higher level and much as I don't rate of agree with him politically, I have to empathise and understand his decision

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Miss Plato, I fail to see why Terry would do that. Is a gardener beyond his humble means?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991
    isam said:

    I think we need to try and see politicians as the human brings they are rather than apply ludicrously high standards of emotional capacity

    When I was up for selection for the Ukip candy aft in Islington I spoke to a kipper PPC that had a decent chance of winning his seat (until I backed him!)... He told me to prepare for everything j had ever said it done to me thrown at me, and the same applying to my family

    Conservatives were paying students to trawl the internet and for any dirt that might be used by them or the media

    Given that I have parent in high blood pressure tablets, I thought what us more worthwhile? Obviously I was going to be an also ran in an unwinnable seat (they all were!) but Umunna obviously has the same concerns at a higher level and much as I don't rate of agree with him politically, I have to empathise and understand his decision

    I don't like it either, and if that is genuinely his reason for not running for Leader, then that's all well and good, but in that case he needs to temper his ambition. No one forced him to be more than just a good representative for his constituents, he's the one who wanted to run the party and then the country, and he knew what pressures that would entail.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The press are incredibly thorough at trying to dig up dirt. When Ian Blair was proposed as Met Police Commissioner, I got a phone call from a Mail reporter - I know Ian quite well at Oxford. I imagine they were digging for stories about drugs or other youthful misdemeanours, although the journalist didn't approach it as crudely as that. What really impressed me was that they had already built up a very detailed picture of who Blair's friends had been and had carefully followed the links (which was how they came to call me). It really was a thorough piece of work.

    (And, no, I didn't give them any dirt!)


    But, but, but... Was there any "dirt" to give? ;)

  • Options
    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    "Harrow West MP Gareth Thomas enters Labour mayoral race"

    Is he the Mary Creagh of the mayoral selection?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I suspected that someone I knew well was being targeted for a NOTW story and ignored every call I didn't recognise. Then I got a LETTER through the post from a stringer - how they found my address I've no idea, but I put it in the bin.

    This was back in about 2005.
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The press are incredibly thorough at trying to dig up dirt. When Ian Blair was proposed as Met Police Commissioner, I got a phone call from a Mail reporter - I know Ian quite well at Oxford. I imagine they were digging for stories about drugs or other youthful misdemeanours, although the journalist didn't approach it as cruedly as that. What really impressed me was that they had already built up a very detailed picture of who Blair's friends had been and had carefully followed the links (which was how they came to call me). It really was a thorough piece of work.

    (And, no, I didn't give them any dirt!)

  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,895
    In reference to OGH's tweet above, if the Unions control all bar 34 (& under) MPs then Labour are thoroughly screwed!
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    Plato said:

    Oh really? Evil Tories PAYING students?

    isam said:

    I think we need to try and see politicians as the human brings they are rather than apply ludicrously high standards of emotional capacity

    When I was up for selection for the Ukip candy aft in Islington I spoke to a kipper PPC that had a decent chance of winning his seat (until I backed him!)... He told me to prepare for everything j had ever said it done to me thrown at me, and the same applying to my family

    Conservatives were paying students to trawl the internet and for any dirt that might be used by them or the media

    Given that I have parent in high blood pressure tablets, I thought what us more worthwhile? Obviously I was going to be an also ran in an unwinnable seat (they all were!) but Umunna obviously has the same concerns at a higher level and much as I don't rate of agree with him politically, I have to empathise and understand his decision

    Better than unpaid interns I guess.

    Sorry I know the Tories can do no wrong and you are horrified by any dirt digging as you've said for the last hour while constantly asking what it could be
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Well quite - I can't see him out there on his tractor mower. Apparently he did it at his last property too.

    It's like choosing to wear nylon shirts and socks. Urgh.
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, I fail to see why Terry would do that. Is a gardener beyond his humble means?

  • Options
    DavidBrackenburyDavidBrackenbury Posts: 353
    Ten days ago, who would have thought we would be discussing these matters? I said on here that we had high hopes of regaining the Corby seat from Labour, and we did so by 2000+ votes. Well done Tom Pursglove!

    The new Conservative Government needs to justify the nation's trust and that is our biggest task.

    In all the discussions about the future, remember nothing is fixed. Labour could come back strongly, as could the LDs.

    As an example, David Cameron back in 2007 bluffed Gordon Brown to call off an early election. I believe that single decision cost Labour very dearly..
  • Options
    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited May 2015
    Plato When I worked regularly with Alan Whicker I was constantly being offered money from the press for stories about him...He was as clean as a whistle.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    Did Chuka really not think the press would go digging?

    I mean look at the treatment Cameron got. They went through everything they could find right back to his days at school all the way to the present day going through his bins and following around for weeks while he peddled around London on his bike.
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    FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    I don't like Liz Kendall's knuckles.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Surely when a political figure makes a decision to resign Friday lunchtime or Saturday, the reason behind it is that one of the Sundays has a story?

    Lots of innuendo was published following the revelation of his 'girlfriend' earlier in the week, could it be that the press have found someone to kiss and tell..?
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    I adored Alan Whicker - and read all his books. I wish we had classy gents like him today.

    My favourite tales were his meetings with the Sultan of Brunei.

    *goes off to see if DVDs are available*
    richardDodd said:

    Plato When I worked regularly with Alan Whicker I was constantly being offered money from the press for stories about him...He was as clean as a whistle.

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    Well at least they're honest

    https://twitter.com/mailonline/status/599160072909037569
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    Sandpit said:

    Surely when a political figure makes a decision to resign Friday lunchtime or Saturday, the reason behind it is that one of the Sundays has a story?

    Lots of innuendo was published following the revelation of his 'girlfriend' earlier in the week, could it be that the press have found someone to kiss and tell..?

    I have a feeling Staines has just got a big fat cheque that will cover his summer hols.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    edited May 2015
    DavidBrackenbury said:


    As an example, David Cameron back in 2007 bluffed Gordon Brown to call off an early election. I believe that single decision cost Labour very dearly..

    How long ago that seem now?

    October 6th 2007 was probably the most incredible day on PB ever.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    https://twitter.com/kthopkins/status/599153993370206208
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    I've just had to have a quick look at Mary Creagh. Caroline Lucas like, but without Lucas's effortlessness. But a heck of a lot better than Liz Kendell who is a featherweight, unconvincing lightweight.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Oh, I have BigotGate as my favourite.
    GIN1138 said:

    DavidBrackenbury said:


    As an example, David Cameron back in 2007 bluffed Gordon Brown to call off an early election. I believe that single decision cost Labour very dearly..

    How long ago that seem now?

    October 6th 2007 was probably the most incredible day on PB ever.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Looking at the 10 Labour gains from the Conservatives, the interesting thing is that the largest majority in any of them was just 1,451 votes. If you'd predicted that before the election most people wouldn't have believed it.

    Dewsbury (1,451)
    Lancaster & Fleetwood (1,265)
    Hove (1,236)
    Enfield North (1,086)
    Wolverhampton SW (801)
    Ilford North (589)
    Brentford & Isleworth (465)
    Wirral West (417)
    Ealing Central & Acton (274)
    City of Chester (93)
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    isam said:

    I think we need to try and see politicians as the human brings they are rather than apply ludicrously high standards of emotional capacity

    When I was up for selection for the Ukip candidacy in Islington I spoke to a kipper PPC that had a decent chance of winning his seat (until I backed him!)... He told me to prepare for everything i had ever said or done to be thrown at me, and the same applying to my family

    Conservatives were paying students to trawl the internet and for any dirt that might be used by them or the media

    Given that I have oap parents on high blood pressure tablets, I thought what is more worthwhile... Their health or my vague ambition? Obviously I was going to be an also ran in an unwinnable seat (they all were!) but Umunna obviously has the same concerns at a higher level and much as I don't rate of agree with him politically, I have to empathise and understand his decision

    There's some reason in that but if your political principles are overshadowed by your past you really have to question your motives, unless of course your past really is bad. A few unfortunate remarks on twitter are never enough to finish a career if taken in isolation.

  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    edited May 2015
    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/kthopkins/status/599153993370206208

    Wish this ghastly attention seeker would shut her mouth...

  • Options
    FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Plato said:

    snip

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    ... When Ian Blair was proposed as Met Police Commissioner, I got a phone call from a Mail reporter - I know Ian quite well at Oxford. ...
    (And, no, I didn't give them any dirt!)

    Pity - you could have saved us all a lot of trouble.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely when a political figure makes a decision to resign Friday lunchtime or Saturday, the reason behind it is that one of the Sundays has a story?

    Lots of innuendo was published following the revelation of his 'girlfriend' earlier in the week, could it be that the press have found someone to kiss and tell..?

    I have a feeling Staines has just got a big fat cheque that will cover his summer hols.
    Interesting call. He was ramping Chuka with that 'sponsored post' yesterday which looked like an ad for Ladbrokes but didn't have a link to their market.

    It would of course be wrong to suggest that Staines was talking up his own book while holding something back for the weekend.
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    FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Looks like a good day to declare yourself Leader For Life.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991
    AndyJS said:

    Looking at the 10 Labour gains from the Conservatives, the interesting thing is that the largest majority in any of them was just 1,451 votes. If you'd predicted that before the election most people wouldn't have believed it.

    Dewsbury (1,451)
    Lancaster & Fleetwood (1,265)
    Hove (1,236)
    Enfield North (1,086)
    Wolverhampton SW (801)
    Ilford North (589)
    Brentford & Isleworth (465)
    Wirral West (417)
    Ealing Central & Acton (274)
    City of Chester (93)

    Blimey. On reflection, it could have been an even better night for the Tories then, as it would not have taken much to retain all of those seats.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I tend to disagree - if you were a colourful person when running for office and faced it down in the right way - the press accept it and move on.

    Louise Mensch wasn't harmed by her party girl history - she remained a PPC and won her seat.
    blackburn63 said:

    isam said:

    I think we need to try and see politicians as the human brings they are rather than apply ludicrously high standards of emotional capacity

    When I was up for selection for the Ukip candidacy in Islington I spoke to a kipper PPC that had a decent chance of winning his seat (until I backed him!)... He told me to prepare for everything i had ever said or done to be thrown at me, and the same applying to my family

    Conservatives were paying students to trawl the internet and for any dirt that might be used by them or the media

    Given that I have oap parents on high blood pressure tablets, I thought what is more worthwhile... Their health or my vague ambition? Obviously I was going to be an also ran in an unwinnable seat (they all were!) but Umunna obviously has the same concerns at a higher level and much as I don't rate of agree with him politically, I have to empathise and understand his decision

    There's some reason in that but if your political principles are overshadowed by your past you really have to question your motives, unless of course your past really is bad. A few unfortunate remarks on twitter are never enough to finish a career if taken in isolation.

  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    edited May 2015
    Plato said:

    Oh, I have BigotGate as my favourite.

    GIN1138 said:

    DavidBrackenbury said:


    As an example, David Cameron back in 2007 bluffed Gordon Brown to call off an early election. I believe that single decision cost Labour very dearly..

    How long ago that seem now?

    October 6th 2007 was probably the most incredible day on PB ever.
    Bigotgate was funny because of "Tim's" meltdown...

    But the bottled election was the most dramatic day I think because about 90% of PB was convinced Brown was going to call it and there was only a few of us saying he'd bottle it...

    Any when he did bottle it you just sensed this was the moment it was all going to start falling apart for Lab... As it did...
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    When do nominations close, is this same date when the candidates have to have the requisite 35 names?
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,222
    No-one should be forced to endure press intrusion but it does seem odd that someone standing for the leadership, particularly after all the hoo-ha Labour made over hacking and having seen what EdM endured, did not anticipate this, discuss it and decide that they were prepared to go through with it.

    It's not what Umunna may or may not have done which is "bad" but his poor judgment about such an important decision for him.
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Plato said:

    I tend to disagree - if you were a colourful person when running for office and faced it down in the right way - the press accept it and move on.

    Louise Mensch wasn't harmed by her party girl history - she remained a PPC and won her seat.

    blackburn63 said:

    isam said:

    I think we need to try and see politicians as the human brings they are rather than apply ludicrously high standards of emotional capacity

    When I was up for selection for the Ukip candidacy in Islington I spoke to a kipper PPC that had a decent chance of winning his seat (until I backed him!)... He told me to prepare for everything i had ever said or done to be thrown at me, and the same applying to my family

    Conservatives were paying students to trawl the internet and for any dirt that might be used by them or the media

    Given that I have oap parents on high blood pressure tablets, I thought what is more worthwhile... Their health or my vague ambition? Obviously I was going to be an also ran in an unwinnable seat (they all were!) but Umunna obviously has the same concerns at a higher level and much as I don't rate of agree with him politically, I have to empathise and understand his decision

    There's some reason in that but if your political principles are overshadowed by your past you really have to question your motives, unless of course your past really is bad. A few unfortunate remarks on twitter are never enough to finish a career if taken in isolation.

    Plato, my point entirely. Everybody will now assume that Chuka has something to hide, refusing to run or enter politics because of media intrusion is pathetic tbh.

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Looking at the 10 Labour gains from the Conservatives, the interesting thing is that the largest majority in any of them was just 1,451 votes. If you'd predicted that before the election most people wouldn't have believed it.

    Dewsbury (1,451)
    Lancaster & Fleetwood (1,265)
    Hove (1,236)
    Enfield North (1,086)
    Wolverhampton SW (801)
    Ilford North (589)
    Brentford & Isleworth (465)
    Wirral West (417)
    Ealing Central & Acton (274)
    City of Chester (93)

    Blimey. On reflection, it could have been an even better night for the Tories then, as it would not have taken much to retain all of those seats.
    As we thought might happen before the election, most of Labour's gains from the Tories were in three area: Greater London, the wider Merseyside area, and Brighton & Hove.
  • Options
    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Plato The Sultan of Brunei was one of mine..
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Looking at the 10 Labour gains from the Conservatives, the interesting thing is that the largest majority in any of them was just 1,451 votes. If you'd predicted that before the election most people wouldn't have believed it.

    Dewsbury (1,451)
    Lancaster & Fleetwood (1,265)
    Hove (1,236)
    Enfield North (1,086)
    Wolverhampton SW (801)
    Ilford North (589)
    Brentford & Isleworth (465)
    Wirral West (417)
    Ealing Central & Acton (274)
    City of Chester (93)

    Blimey. On reflection, it could have been an even better night for the Tories then, as it would not have taken much to retain all of those seats.
    Then again, there were 14 seats that the Conservatives won by under 1,000 votes (and four more that they won by less than they lost Dewsbury by). The Conservatives seem to have outperformed even in the supermarginals.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Oh wow

    :pea-green-face:
    richardDodd said:

    Plato The Sultan of Brunei was one of mine..

  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2015
    isam said:

    Well at least they're honest

    https://twitter.com/mailonline/status/599160072909037569

    *his* islam may be a religion of fighting.

    Thankfully, his islam is rejected by basically everyone else who consider themselves Muslim.

    Religion ain't one simple thing, isam.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    She fails to spell his name correctly...
    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/kthopkins/status/599153993370206208

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    blackburn63 said:

    Plato said:

    I tend to disagree - if you were a colourful person when running for office and faced it down in the right way - the press accept it and move on.

    Louise Mensch wasn't harmed by her party girl history - she remained a PPC and won her seat.

    blackburn63 said:

    isam said:

    I think we need to try and see politicians as the human brings they are rather than apply ludicrously high standards of emotional capacity

    When I was up for selection for the Ukip candidacy in Islington I spoke to a kipper PPC that had a decent chance of winning his seat (until I backed him!)... He told me to prepare for everything i had ever said or done to be thrown at me, and the same applying to my family

    Conservatives were paying students to trawl the internet and for any dirt that might be used by them or the media

    Given that I have oap parents on high blood pressure tablets, I thought what is more worthwhile... Their health or my vague ambition? Obviously I was going to be an also ran in an unwinnable seat (they all were!) but Umunna obviously has the same concerns at a higher level and much as I don't rate of agree with him politically, I have to empathise and understand his decision

    There's some reason in that but if your political principles are overshadowed by your past you really have to question your motives, unless of course your past really is bad. A few unfortunate remarks on twitter are never enough to finish a career if taken in isolation.

    Plato, my point entirely. Everybody will now assume that Chuka has something to hide, refusing to run or enter politics because of media intrusion is pathetic tbh.

    Yeah Righto.

    Your dad has a heart attack brought on by the stress of the media constantly being on his case and it's all because of your decision to run as MP, and it would be pathetic to bear that in mind?
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    Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    I can't see 2 things here.

    1/ which candidate for the Labour leadership is union puppet enough to win the leadership in 2015 while also being not-union-puppet enough to win the GE in 2020; and
    2/ which candidate has shown signs of being smart enough to address Labour's other and regionally different problems.

    If they had anyone that smart, we'd have heard of them before now. As it is, Yvette is still in denial about overspending, Butcher has Stafford on his hands, and Liz Kendall's appeal seems to be that she's too much of a noob to have cocked much up yet.

    Does any of these people look like a match for Osborne?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    philiph said:

    When do nominations close, is this same date when the candidates have to have the requisite 35 names?

    15th June, apparently.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_leadership_election,_2015
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    Pong said:

    isam said:

    Well at least they're honest

    https://twitter.com/mailonline/status/599160072909037569

    *his* islam may be a religion of fighting.

    Thankfully, his islam is rejected by basically everyone else who consider themselves Muslim.

    Religion ain't one simple thing, isam.
    Oh ain't it? Thanks for the lesson massa

  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    To those betting on Chuka.
    Chucker yahmoney away.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Looking at the 10 Labour gains from the Conservatives, the interesting thing is that the largest majority in any of them was just 1,451 votes. If you'd predicted that before the election most people wouldn't have believed it.

    Dewsbury (1,451)
    Lancaster & Fleetwood (1,265)
    Hove (1,236)
    Enfield North (1,086)
    Wolverhampton SW (801)
    Ilford North (589)
    Brentford & Isleworth (465)
    Wirral West (417)
    Ealing Central & Acton (274)
    City of Chester (93)

    Blimey. On reflection, it could have been an even better night for the Tories then, as it would not have taken much to retain all of those seats.
    Well that's always the case whatever the result! Hence the usual crap about "if just 50,000 people had voted differently..." - if those 50k had voted differently, so would another million!
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    If only we had a De Lorean...
    Tissue_Price said:


    Well that's always the case whatever the result! Hence the usual crap about "if just 50,000 people had voted differently..." - if those 50k had voted differently, so would another million!

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    To those betting on Chuka.
    Chucker yahmoney away.

    This is looking like a lay-the-favourite market.

    Same as the next Tory leader or next PM markets, both of which have Boris favourite for some mad reason.
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    AndyJS said:

    She fails to spell his name correctly...

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/kthopkins/status/599153993370206208

    a complete waste of 2 characters. People saying Chuka stood down because he didnt like journos asking his grandmother questions are pretty naive. There is a hell of a lot more to it than that.

    His statement about not expecting the level of scrutiny says it all. Labour have dodged a bullet here.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991
    Tissue_Price said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Looking at the 10 Labour gains from the Conservatives, the interesting thing is that the largest majority in any of them was just 1,451 votes. If you'd predicted that before the election most people wouldn't have believed it.

    Dewsbury (1,451)
    Lancaster & Fleetwood (1,265)
    Hove (1,236)
    Enfield North (1,086)
    Wolverhampton SW (801)
    Ilford North (589)
    Brentford & Isleworth (465)
    Wirral West (417)
    Ealing Central & Acton (274)
    City of Chester (93)

    Blimey. On reflection, it could have been an even better night for the Tories then, as it would not have taken much to retain all of those seats.
    Well that's always the case whatever the result! Hence the usual crap about "if just 50,000 people had voted differently..." - if those 50k had voted differently, so would another million!
    Fair point.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Speaking of people with colourful pasts that didn't halt their ambitions.
    Sandpit said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:


    Same as the next Tory leader or next PM markets, both of which have Boris favourite for some mad reason.

  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    isam said:

    blackburn63 said:

    Plato said:

    I tend to disagree - if you were a colourful person when running for office and faced it down in the right way - the press accept it and move on.

    Louise Mensch wasn't harmed by her party girl history - she remained a PPC and won her seat.

    blackburn63 said:

    isam said:

    I think we need to try and see politicians as the human brings they are rather than apply ludicrously high standards of emotional capacity

    When I was up for selection for the Ukip candidacy in Islington I spoke to a kipper PPC that had a decent chance of winning his seat (until I backed him!)... He told me to prepare for everything i had ever said or done to be thrown at me, and the same applying to my family

    Conservatives were paying students to trawl the internet and for any dirt that might be used by them or the media

    Given that I have oap parents on high blood pressure tablets, I thought what is more worthwhile... Their health or my vague ambition? Obviously I was going to be an also ran in an unwinnable seat (they all were!) but Umunna obviously has the same concerns at a higher level and much as I don't rate of agree with him politically, I have to empathise and understand his decision

    There's some reason in that but if your political principles are overshadowed by your past you really have to question your motives, unless of course your past really is bad. A few unfortunate remarks on twitter are never enough to finish a career if taken in isolation.

    Plato, my point entirely. Everybody will now assume that Chuka has something to hide, refusing to run or enter politics because of media intrusion is pathetic tbh.

    Yeah Righto.

    Your dad has a heart attack brought on by the stress of the media constantly being on his case and it's all because of your decision to run as MP, and it would be pathetic to bear that in mind?
    If your Dad has heart problems I sympathise but I suggest his stress will be as a result of what happened in the past not the fact you're running as an MP. There are hundreds of people under as much scrutiny as Umunna, he has simply encouraged more of it

  • Options
    Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    AndyJS said:

    She fails to spell his name correctly...

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/kthopkins/status/599153993370206208

    Right, so that hopkins woman is insinuating with that that Chuka has had gay affairs.

    If true, this has no bearing on his fitness to do anything in public life whatsoever. This must also be the general view in the country. So if the construction I have put on the snide tweet is accurate, it might be that his family don't know, and he doesn't want them to find out like this?
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,003
    GIN1138 said:

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/kthopkins/status/599153993370206208

    Wish this ghastly attention seeker would shut her mouth...

    Don't get it - is she saying he's gay (cos not yet married)?

    I sort of feel sorry for her. It's not much of a life.

  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    tyson said:

    I've just had to have a quick look at Mary Creagh. Caroline Lucas like, but without Lucas's effortlessness. But a heck of a lot better than Liz Kendell who is a featherweight, unconvincing lightweight.

    I hope the Labour party pick someone you like.
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    RaRaRasputinRaRaRasputin Posts: 48
    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely when a political figure makes a decision to resign Friday lunchtime or Saturday, the reason behind it is that one of the Sundays has a story?

    Lots of innuendo was published following the revelation of his 'girlfriend' earlier in the week, could it be that the press have found someone to kiss and tell..?

    I have a feeling Staines has just got a big fat cheque that will cover his summer hols.
    Interesting call. He was ramping Chuka with that 'sponsored post' yesterday which looked like an ad for Ladbrokes but didn't have a link to their market.

    It would of course be wrong to suggest that Staines was talking up his own book while holding something back for the weekend.
    Staines absolutely abhors Chuka, and has been on his case ever since 'the British Obama' came into the public eye.

    Chuka is an interesting politician, I've seen him speak twice to hostile crowds and met him once. On paper he's very unlikeable - i went in to one of his Q&A sessions preparing to heckle him - but he spoke very well.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    To those betting on Chuka.
    Chucker yahmoney away.

    He's Chuka-ed in the towel?

    Liz Kendall has union contacts, and is now the only 2010 entrant standing. I would be suprised if she cannot get the 35 names. She was SPAD to HH, and seems to have been working the room for a while.

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,314
    Earlier today, as Chukka fell under the virtual bus, I had a 'weird' betting moment and put on to Starmer at 190/1. He now stands at 32.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Being gay or whatever surely can't be the reason. He's a total metrosexual sort - and who in Labour is going to care?

    Why would anyone else care?

    I'd be amazed and rather disappointed if he walked away for that reason.
    Bond_James_Bond said:


    Right, so that hopkins woman is insinuating with that that Chuka has had gay affairs.

    If true, this has no bearing on his fitness to do anything in public life whatsoever. This must also be the general view in the country. So if the construction I have put on the snide tweet is accurate, it might be that his family don't know, and he doesn't want them to find out like this?

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130
    foxinsoxuk said:


    Liz Kendall has union contacts, and is now the only 2010 entrant standing. I would be suprised if she cannot get the 35 names. She was SPAD to HH, and seems to have been working the room for a while.

    It's surprising therefore that Harman didn't give her a promotion in the new Shadow Cabinet.
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    Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Ghedebrav said:

    GIN1138 said:

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/kthopkins/status/599153993370206208

    Wish this ghastly attention seeker would shut her mouth...

    Don't get it - is she saying he's gay (cos not yet married)?

    I sort of feel sorry for her. It's not much of a life.

    She is clearly pretty thick. No thinking conservative would cheer something that ensured Chuka was not Labour leader. It be like cheering Neil Kinnock or Ed Miliband not being Labour leader.

    It still looks nailed on for Butcher to me, but I understand Yvette is unaccountably popular in the party so what do I know.
  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Sandpit said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    To those betting on Chuka.
    Chucker yahmoney away.

    This is looking like a lay-the-favourite market.

    Same as the next Tory leader or next PM markets, both of which have Boris favourite for some mad reason.
    lay-the-favourite market?
    Gnarfff Finbar lives again
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    watford30 said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Crick: Umunna was upset the press doorstepped not just his mother, but his girlfriend's parents and even her 102-year old grandmother

    And he didn't think that was going to happen and prepare for the possibility because?


    Thin skinned, and poorly prepared. Neither are good qualities for a Party Leader.
    How about aggressive? Would that help?
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    Ed Miliband may have not become PM but at least thankfully neither will Umunna.

    In the end Umunna was too much of a Tory to be Labour leader as I mentioned yesterday with the aid of the Daily Mail:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2308381/Voters-dismissed-trash-1m-Ibiza-villa-called-White-House-credibility-crisis-threatening-Labours-Obama-Chuka-Umunna.html


    TSE will have to change his article from Chukka Can to Chukka Can't.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,222
    isam said:

    Well at least they're honest

    https://twitter.com/mailonline/status/599160072909037569

    The rest of us had worked that out some time ago.

    Incidentally, if you can watch on iPlayer Jane Corbin's report on the plight of Christians in the Middle East. It is heartbreaking. There is one scene where some IS person announces that no non-Muslim will be allowed to survive, takes a statue of the Virgin Mary stolen from an Iraqi church and smashes into pieces on the ground.

    Contrast the silence and passivity of the Western world to such offensive behaviour with the the hair trigger wailing and violence that accompanies anything the perpetrators of such acts don't like.

    Were we to react in the way they do to their offensive behaviour, defined using their own definition of "offensive", the world would be in flames.

    IS have also deliberately destroyed the memorial in Syria to all the Armenians killed by the Turks during WW1. Not only do they want to repeat the genocide but they have obliterated even the memory of the last one.

  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited May 2015
    Ghedebrav said:

    GIN1138 said:

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/kthopkins/status/599153993370206208

    Wish this ghastly attention seeker would shut her mouth...

    Don't get it - is she saying he's gay (cos not yet married)?

    I sort of feel sorry for her. It's not much of a life.
    I wouldn't feel sorry for Katie Hopkins. She certainly doesn't feel sorry for herself, and she seems quite happy with the choices she has made.

    EDIT: Except, perhaps, the choice to write that tweet, which seems to have been deleted. Maybe she'll republish with the correct spelling of his name?
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2015
    rottenborough said:

    Earlier today, as Chukka fell under the virtual bus, I had a 'weird' betting moment and put on to Starmer at 190/1. He now stands at 32.

    Polly is shilling for him. Never gonna happen, great bet but make sure you trade out.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Watching this short film I felt a bit sad for the independent candidate in Cheltenham. It's a reminder of how difficult it is for independent candidates to get anywhere in general elections:

    http://news.sky.com/video/1483592/the-final-episode-of-going-it-alone
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    kle4 said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Looking at the 10 Labour gains from the Conservatives, the interesting thing is that the largest majority in any of them was just 1,451 votes. If you'd predicted that before the election most people wouldn't have believed it.

    Dewsbury (1,451)
    Lancaster & Fleetwood (1,265)
    Hove (1,236)
    Enfield North (1,086)
    Wolverhampton SW (801)
    Ilford North (589)
    Brentford & Isleworth (465)
    Wirral West (417)
    Ealing Central & Acton (274)
    City of Chester (93)

    Blimey. On reflection, it could have been an even better night for the Tories then, as it would not have taken much to retain all of those seats.
    Well that's always the case whatever the result! Hence the usual crap about "if just 50,000 people had voted differently..." - if those 50k had voted differently, so would another million!
    Fair point.
    The point I was making was that if Labour were going to do at all well at this election they would have been winning some of their easier targets by more than 5,000 votes not just 1,500.
  • Options
    Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Plato said:

    Being gay or whatever surely can't be the reason. He's a total metrosexual sort - and who in Labour is going to care?

    Why would anyone else care?

    I'd be amazed and rather disappointed if he walked away for that reason.

    Bond_James_Bond said:


    Right, so that hopkins woman is insinuating with that that Chuka has had gay affairs.

    If true, this has no bearing on his fitness to do anything in public life whatsoever. This must also be the general view in the country. So if the construction I have put on the snide tweet is accurate, it might be that his family don't know, and he doesn't want them to find out like this?

    His family might care. Nigerians in Britain are often socially conservative, in my limited experience.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Could it be similar to the David Laws story, where closeted homosexuality led to expenses fraud?

    The way he (Chuka) worded his statement it's obvious that the press are going for him, but he's been around long enough to know they would be digging - so what did he think he could hide away?
    Plato said:

    Being gay or whatever surely can't be the reason. He's a total metrosexual sort - and who in Labour is going to care?

    Why would anyone else care?

    I'd be amazed and rather disappointed if he walked away for that reason.

    Bond_James_Bond said:


    Right, so that hopkins woman is insinuating with that that Chuka has had gay affairs.

    If true, this has no bearing on his fitness to do anything in public life whatsoever. This must also be the general view in the country. So if the construction I have put on the snide tweet is accurate, it might be that his family don't know, and he doesn't want them to find out like this?

  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,003
    GIN1138 said:

    watford30 said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Crick: Umunna was upset the press doorstepped not just his mother, but his girlfriend's parents and even her 102-year old grandmother

    And he didn't think that was going to happen and prepare for the possibility because?


    Thin skinned, and poorly prepared. Neither are good qualities for a Party Leader.
    Indeed. The hype about Chuka has been bizarre given he has never looked remotely suited to a leadership role.

    The very first time I saw him on Question Time (after hearing everybody raving about how he was "a British Obama") I knew he was a dud.

    He carries himself appallingly... Lab's had a lucky escape.


    He's played it well IMO. In five years' time after labour lose again he'll be perfectly placed to be the 'renewal' leader - especially if he can avoid a senior shadow cabinet position (albeit with Dan Jarvis to take on when the time comes).

    The more I think about it, this is definitely a good leadership contest to lose.
This discussion has been closed.