One other fact that PB tories dismissed as false, was the UKIP notion that they were picking up more votes from Labour than Tories, which has been born out by the results.
PB Tories frequently pointed out that UKIP was a Labour problem too - to hoots of derision from Labour supporters....
Tim and I argued for days on end about it...he simply wouldn't believe it. Same for 'Hugh'... He thought I was a Tory boy who ran a business exploiting my staff! I wish
Shame they're not here to gloat to... Or to ask for money!
You owe me beer and lunch ;-)
Yes
Who else can honestly say they backed Ed Miliband and the Liberal Democrats to do badly and lost money doing so? Quite incredible... Although part of me loves backing unlucky losing bets... I need a vehicle for complaint
Whereabouts shall we go? I don't really work in the daytime, hence 15000 posts on here! So anyday suits me really
I've got a couple of bets with you: the 4x UKIP/Lib Dem one (which I won) and a £10 charity bet from a couple of days ago that I remember nothing about!
Can you recall the details /how do you want to settle up?
I can't remember the details but I'm assuming I lost!
The LD Ukip one... Jesus how did I lose that? Any idea how much that was for?
Let me know the amounts and your details and I'll send the money over
Anyone that lost a bet to me is free to get in touch as well by the way
I think I won the charity bet (it was something like UKIP less than 3.5 seats at evens) as well as the main one.
For the charity bet please just want to stick a tenner in your local CofE church collection box.
I'll see if I can find the details of the main one - not sure exactly where they are at the moment!
Ok: it was LD > 4x UKIP. £50 at evens. I'll PM you my bank details. TBH I was spot on with my UKIP estimate of 1 seat...got a bit nervous during the evening about the LibDems
Charity bet is £10 - if you just round the transfer up to £60 I can take care of the donation at this end if it's easier.
On the economy it is the Tories who have been most pro austerity, like the Republicans in the US, it was Obama who was preaching investment in infrastructure etc much like Labour. It was the Tories who invited McCain to their 2008 conference and the Tea Party occupies much of the same message as UKIP. The same trends apply, Labour needed the working class when the UK had a working class majority, it now has a suburban middle class one, there is no future for it in being UKIP lite, it would lose the suburban middle class and its leftwing supporters in the public sector and ethnic minorities without being able to win back voters from UKIP, some working class voters will continue to vote Labour of course, but it is not the working class Labour needs for power
This is the kind of thinking that got Jim Murphy elected as SLAB leader. Look at what has happened there. If Labour abandon the working classes they basically cease to exist as a political force outside of a few core cities. The Conservatives won't make the same mistake as Hague and IDS again. Chuka would be Ed mark 2, just with better presentation. He is a London intellectual who is not able to speak to the Northern core vote. Remember that the North delivered the bulk of Labour's seats where there is a massive working class vote. Abandoning them to UKIP would be a disaster, just to win 20-30 seats in the suburbs of London and Manchester. As a (now Tory member) nothing would delight me more than to see Labour commit suicide by abandoning the WWC to UKIP, but it would be bad for the country.
HYUFD is right. Where New Labour got it right was to pitch to aspirant people, and they increasingly either live in the suburbs or aspire to do so.
No one wants to live on a sink inner city estate. What they want is a little of what they see others having. Better more fulfilling jobs, a home where it is safe for kids to play outside, a place where they can invite round friends, etc. Aspiration sells. It may not always be a realistic ambition, but it is what people would choose if it was open to them. Appealing to the suburban mentality is not fashionable, Gentrified inner city or rural retreat is much more so, but suburbs are where most potential Labour voters either live or want to live.
I see it locally in Loughborough and also NW Leics. The engineering and mining that built these towns are gone, the new estates and service industries being built here are changing the demographics. In 2010 they were lost to the Blues and both look like safe seats now. Broxtowe too...
Under Blair a canvassing rule seemed to be New Builds = New Labour. The aspirant lower middle classes...
So the leader of Westminster SNP will now get a designated question at every PMQs?
Should do, if not two...
I seem to remember it was one of the things in 1997 that reminded the Tories just how low they had sunk, and how irrelevant they had become, when the leader of the liberal democrats got two questions at every PMQs.
Which marginal were you in out of interest, it seems your doorstep mood music was way more in line with the reality than the polls.
Is Cameron DEFINITELY going before the next election? I didn't really follow it, but I never really got the impression that the whole thing was particularly planned, just his current thoughts on the future. It is very easy for someone to take the view that on balance they don't think they will carry on a stressful job some 5 years hence. Whether they feel the same way at a later occasion is another matter.
If he loses the EU ref he is gone. If he wins it I would expect him to leave on top, allow someone to take the divided party forward now the matter is settled, that sort of thing.
But perhaps rather than go immediately he says he'll go in a year or something, to give the party time to sort out candidates, and he'll throw his hat back into the ring 'reluctantly' when the public seems lukewarm to the other candidates and are calling for him to stay on. Assuming everything else is going positively for him, which is not certain of course.
Boris is surely the big loser of the election. No longer can he be the Tories' saviour after Cameron led them to defeat in 2015, and presumably his day job as Mayor of London rules him out of ministerial office, so that when Cameron does retire in a year or two, Boris will have no Cabinet experience to offer against Osborne, May or anyone else.
I very much doubt David Cameron will retire in a year or to - he is likely to be hugely motivated by his success and needs time to resolve Europe and Scotland. I cannot see him walking away until he has succeeded in both and established himself as one of the Country's greatest Prime Ministers. He has already destroyed all relevant opposition who will take years, if at all, to recover
Cameron has achieved his main objective: getting the Conservative Party back into government after its nadir during the Blair years. Beyond that, what is there? David Cameron is no idealogue seeking to reshape the country in his own image, let alone Europe or the world. He has been leader of his party since 2005, and Prime Minister since 2010. More importantly, he has already ruled out a third term.
If I were labour I would be saying lets have the biggest baddest private sector we can get, and then sting it for as much as we can get away with. Trouble is, Dave has made that his central strategy already.
Boris is surely the big loser of the election. No longer can he be the Tories' saviour after Cameron led them to defeat in 2015, and presumably his day job as Mayor of London rules him out of ministerial office, so that when Cameron does retire in a year or two, Boris will have no Cabinet experience to offer against Osborne, May or anyone else.
More importantly, he has already ruled out a third term.
He could always change his mind. I don't think he will, but it isn't definitive just because he said that.
MaxPB There are 8 million ethnic minority UK citizens, and that is growing, only 3 million voted UKIP on Thursday. The traditional working class represent about 14% of the population now, according to a 2013 survey, the established middle class 23% and the technical middle class, new affluent workers and emergent service workers represent the majority, while Labour already has the precariat. Even if they won back all the traditional working class Labour would be nowhere near a majority. Labour still has a clear lead with all ethnic groups, even with Hindus, where they do relatively best, the Tories only win around 25-30% of their votes http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22007058
Stop abusing the figures, it was 3.8m that voted Ukip so if you are rounding you should say 4m not 3m
Having to lie to win an arguments not a good trait
Is Cameron DEFINITELY going before the next election? I didn't really follow it, but I never really got the impression that the whole thing was particularly planned, just his current thoughts on the future. It is very easy for someone to take the view that on balance they don't think they will carry on a stressful job some 5 years hence. Whether they feel the same way at a later occasion is another matter.
No way he can get out of what he said...besides he really doesn't enjoy the job that much.
Mr Chillax ain't going to do another GE campaign, all that stress and long hours isn't good for his skin
He might begin to enjoy life with a majority. Also the fact that he doesn't enjoy it paradoxically could be an issue to make him change his mind - duty/country before self and all that.
Can I ask a question? All the politicians (and us) are advancing their theses about why Lab lost. Has anybody considered asking the voters? I mean, going round the country, talking to people, asking them? Is anybody actually doing this?
I have a feeling labour might not like the answers...
Which is the core of the problem.
The fact Team Ed were convinced they had won right up to 10pm, when as Loud Howard revealed Tories already had a good idea they likely had over 300 early in the evening. Even Bet Fred knew....says Labour have a huge problem when it comes to having this kinda of intelligence.
Actually what seems really strange is the lack of feedback loops within the Labour operation. There is more than enough evidence out there that Labour knew what was happening on the ground, but either this information wasn't communicated to the centre or the centre didn't want to know. If Team Ed thought they were doing well until the Exit Poll then it can only because they weren't talking to the troops.
Are we sure about that? The story goes that Labour got a terrible shock about how bad the postal votes were going, and hence the rush to see Russell. Up to that point they thought it was all going smoothly. They then convinced themselves that things were fine again, because the polls still looked good.
There is clearly a big disconnect there on the information front.
I have to go to work, so I cannot pursue this. But one thing that did strike me about the 10pm exit poll was not the fact that Paddy Ashdown was surprised and shocked by it, it was the fact that Harriet Harman wasn't. I think they knew, as indicated by the Labour:Uncut article. They just couldn't do anything about it.
Fox Agree entirely, if Labour is to have a future it is not to be Scargill and Nye Bevan 2 with a bit of Enoch Powell thrown in, constantly railing against Thatcher, lionising the working class and the memories of the miners and clamping down on immigration, racking up huge majorities in Barnsley and Merthyr Tydfil. No, it has to do what Blair did and appeal to the middle classes who work in the suburbs, new towns, the service sector, IT etc have a modest amount of property and wealth which they want to grow and who want decent public services for themselves and their families. Indeed some of those voters may have even had grandfathers who were miners, they may be proud of their heritage, that does not mean they want to return down the mines
Cameron must have been terribly confused yesterday. Not how he won a majority, nor what to do about Scotland problem, nor how he is going to actually mange to wriggle out of some of the manifesto pledges that were only there to be able to throw away when he formed Coalition MK II....
No, it was that it Aston Ham vs West Villa United.....
Is Cameron DEFINITELY going before the next election? I didn't really follow it, but I never really got the impression that the whole thing was particularly planned, just his current thoughts on the future. It is very easy for someone to take the view that on balance they don't think they will carry on a stressful job some 5 years hence. Whether they feel the same way at a later occasion is another matter.
No way he can get out of what he said...besides he really doesn't enjoy the job that much.
Mr Chillax ain't going to do another GE campaign, all that stress and long hours isn't good for his skin
It depends on how popular GE he is, if he renegotiated successfully on Europe, reaches a balanced constitutional settlement and the Labour leader is awful (the first two are big ifs) I could easily see him staying on and winning 2020 (or calling one after the referendums) before passing over to a new leader a year it two later.
Diane Abbott on Sky - she increased her majority in Hackney so this is where Labour need to look for how to win in the country. I think she may be onto something there. I do hope that Labour listen and follow her advice - to the letter.
Yeah she should run for Deputy Leader. (^_-)
Maybe this time she could avoid the embarrassing spectacle of only making it to the final contest thanks to someone pulling out to ensure a female candidate, any female candidate, got through.
Cameron must have been terribly confused yesterday. Not how he won a majority, nor what to do about Scotland problem, nor how he is going to actually mange to wriggle out of some of the manifesto pledges that were only there to be able to throw away when he formed Coalition MK II....
Has anyone attempted to work out which pledges were in the firing line?
Is Cameron DEFINITELY going before the next election? I didn't really follow it, but I never really got the impression that the whole thing was particularly planned, just his current thoughts on the future. It is very easy for someone to take the view that on balance they don't think they will carry on a stressful job some 5 years hence. Whether they feel the same way at a later occasion is another matter.
No way he can get out of what he said...besides he really doesn't enjoy the job that much.
Mr Chillax ain't going to do another GE campaign, all that stress and long hours isn't good for his skin
Dave looks as if he is enjoying the job at the moment! He will go by 2020 though, two terms is good, but a third one almost always goes sour.
Scotland will now get more powers and the dominant constitutional debate will move to the EU.
Either the UK votes to exit, in which case Scotland probably leaves the UK too, or it narrowly votes In, which could well give UKIP the same boost the SNP had in Scotland, especially if Cameron led the In campaign. A large In margin is the least likely outcome in my view
I suspect you are wrong: IN VOTES % x 2015 GE Market Share Labour voters: 70% IN. x 30.5% =21.4% LD voters 95% IN x 7.8% = 7.4% UKIP voters 100% out x 12.6% (12.6)% SNP 100% IN x4.7% = 4.7% Greens etc.. 3.8% x 90% (say) 3.4%
Sub Total 24.3% IN
Conservatives.... Share 36.9%.
To get a OUT answer, they need 65% of ALL Conservatives to vote NO..
That is unlikely in my view.. 50% Out is I suspect the best which would give (-18.9)% OUT or a net Total of 5.4% IN.
I forecast an IN vote unless the EU makes no concessions in which case the above is nonsense..
I think there are some kipper voters who will vote IN, just as there were SNP aligned voters who voted No in the indy ref. My Dad is one of them! He wants to drive a hard bargain eith the EU, and is attracted by some of the kipper social conservatism, but will vote In when it comes to the Euro-ref.
I see Sturgeon's tactic will be that whatever Cameron offers, she will say it is not enough and demand more. Obviously at some point he will say that is going too far, and she will claim he has betrayed Scotland and that Independence has to be gone for again. Expected, but still effective.
Yep, that is exactly how it will play out. Either her bluff gets called or Scotland becomes independent. Either way, the SNP is not going to be as popular in five years time as it is now.
Surely there'll eventually be a split in the SNP. Apparently the SNP is to the Left of Labour, but its voters aren't, at least most of them aren't. The government (and Scottish Labour, for that matter) needs to make sure that split happens and that requires a charm offensive. Cameron needs to get up there as often as possible, shaking hands, giving speeches, pretending there's another referendum next week. He might not get a good reception, but that's the point. The nicer he is and the angrier the loony nats get, the more likely that the SNP will split, or at least that it'll lose the 10-20% of additional support it needs to create a drive for a new referendum.
Cameron visiting would make it even less likely. His few visits so far are in locked rooms , secret and only to his chums, it will stay that way.
Yes - Cameron being harangued on Princes Street by a spittle flecked Nat would look terrible.
But for whom?
I'm a great advocate of Major style 'meet the people'. Cameron should take the fight to streets - street speeches from Glasgow to Liverpool and Brighton would do him no harm (to his reputation).
Left-centre parties will probably work together to undermine this government if they sense the opportunity. The DUP and UUPs are not certs to support the government either - the DUP have their own redlines e.g. The Bedroom Tax.
Given how we've seen safe seats overturned at the GE I don't think anyone can say the new Conservative seats in the South-West are an assurity to be safe seats. A large part of that depends on how the tactical vote in these areas mobilise.
Sounds like wishful thinking - beware what you wish for - another election anytime soon would finish labour and return a much increased majority conservative goverment
I have to go to work, so I cannot pursue this. But one thing that did strike me about the 10pm exit poll was not the fact that Paddy Ashdown was surprised and shocked by it, it was the fact that Harriet Harman wasn't. I think they knew, as indicated by the Labour:Uncut article. They just couldn't do anything about it.
Well if the press are to be believed, that isn't the case.
Shortly before the explosive 10pm exit poll was broadcast on Thursday night, Ed Miliband was working on his ‘victory’ speech at his detached constituency home in a pretty south Yorkshire village.
He ordered Lord Wood, his head of strategy who was at his side, to send a message to shadow cabinet ministers not to be triumphalist on the television and radio as the night wore on.
During the evening, Miliband had been buoyed by positive messages coming in from some polling stations suggesting Labour were on course to win enough seats to form a government.
So when the exit poll came through, Miliband was stunned. He was holding his head in his hands, and shouting at the television that the forecast must be wrong.
Bob Roberts, the head of press who was with him in the house, immediately began fielding telephone calls from candidates who suddenly realised that they were going to lose.
‘Even so, somehow they managed to convince themselves in that Doncaster bubble that the poll must be wrong,’ says one Labour figure. ‘It was only as the night wore on that the terrible truth dawned on them. The poll was wrong – in that it had underestimated the Tory support.’
As Big Ben struck 10pm and polling stations closed, staff at Labour’s London headquarters awaited the moment of truth. The results of the Curtice exit poll flashed up on the BBC, Sky and ITV. “I looked round and saw rows of people all with their hands over their mouths,” said a Labour staffer. “It was if the whole room was witnessing some terrible tragedy unfold before their eyes.”
Miliband’s aides made contact with London HQ and agreed to put out a line pouring cold water on the poll. A “Labour source” texted a statement to journalists: “We are sceptical of the BBC poll. It looks wrong to us.”
Compare that with Loud Howard telling the News UK Party that Crosby / Messina he said to him their info said over 300....hours before the polls closed.
So we can only presume that if Loud Howard knew at News International, so did all the workers at CCHQ. Where as Labour were in the dark until the Exit Poll came through on the MSM.
Left-centre parties will probably work together to undermine this government if they sense the opportunity. The DUP and UUPs are not certs to support the government either - the DUP have their own redlines e.g. The Bedroom Tax.
Given how we've seen safe seats overturned at the GE I don't think anyone can say the new Conservative seats in the South-West are an assurity to be safe seats. A large part of that depends on how the tactical vote in these areas mobilise.
Ms The_Apocalypse: Build your coalition:
Labour are over 100 seats behind in England and are fearful of further losses to UKIP. How do they collude against the 'Voice-of-England' - let alone Wales - and expect to win in GE2020? They have more seats in Wales but are in the same place as the Tories in North-Britainshire.
So the opposition is - per se - divided: Labour cannot be seen to kneel to the SNP: That negates 56 opposition seats and, as others have realised, the Ulster-Scots will fall into line (esp. the SF lazy ones): Where is your opposition; and whom will your targets be...?
Cammers has a majority more consolidated than Major's '92 historic victory: Major faced Labour; Cammers faces spratlings....
PT Isam However you look at the figures there are many more ethnic minority voters than UKIP voters, and yes some may become Tories once they have established themselves, but given the Tories want to cap and limit immigration numbers and UKIP even more so, Labour still wins a clear majority of the ethnic minority and immigrant vote, and an even bigger majority of new and first generation immigrants
Left-centre parties will probably work together to undermine this government if they sense the opportunity. The DUP and UUPs are not certs to support the government either - the DUP have their own redlines e.g. The Bedroom Tax.
Given how we've seen safe seats overturned at the GE I don't think anyone can say the new Conservative seats in the South-West are an assurity to be safe seats. A large part of that depends on how the tactical vote in these areas mobilise.
Sounds like wishful thinking - beware what you wish for - another election anytime soon would finish labour and return a much increased majority conservative goverment
I don't think they'll be another election soon, but tbh you're thoughts (as well as some others on here) also sound like wishful thinking. It's one thing to think it'll be difficult for Labour to win in 2020, it's another to think they'll never win a GE again.
What I've been surprised about, reading the reports of how the Con/Lab team's found out (i.e. by watching the telly with the rest of us) is that it seem's they genuinely do not get a "head's up" about what it's showing before 10pm?
The broadcasters must get given the result some time before 10pm so they can get their scripts and graphics ready, and whilst I know it's supposed to be kept entirely secret until 10pm I always assumed that at some point before 10pm the politicians would be informed about what it's saying...
One other fact that PB tories dismissed as false, was the UKIP notion that they were picking up more votes from Labour than Tories, which has been born out by the results.
PB Tories frequently pointed out that UKIP was a Labour problem too - to hoots of derision from Labour supporters....
Tim and I argued for days on end about it...he simply wouldn't believe it. Same for 'Hugh'... He thought I was a Tory boy who ran a business exploiting my staff! I wish
Shame they're not here to gloat to... Or to ask for money!
You owe me beer and lunch ;-)
Yes
Who else can honestly say they backed Ed Miliband and the Liberal Democrats to do badly and lost money doing so? Quite incredible... Although part of me loves backing unlucky losing bets... I need a vehicle for complaint
Whereabouts shall we go? I don't really work in the daytime, hence 15000 posts on here! So anyday suits me really
I've got a couple of bets with you: the 4x UKIP/Lib Dem one (which I won) and a £10 charity bet from a couple of days ago that I remember nothing about!
Can you recall the details /how do you want to settle up?
I can't remember the details but I'm assuming I lost!
The LD Ukip one... Jesus how did I lose that? Any idea how much that was for?
Let me know the amounts and your details and I'll send the money over
Anyone that lost a bet to me is free to get in touch as well by the way
I think I won the charity bet (it was something like UKIP less than 3.5 seats at evens) as well as the main one.
For the charity bet please just want to stick a tenner in your local CofE church collection box.
I'll see if I can find the details of the main one - not sure exactly where they are at the moment!
Righto, will do
I think those bets were made around Dec 30th as I also forgot the details of one with scrap heap and he quoted that date
Any news on whether the fixed term parliament act is going to be ditched?
Presumably with a Con majority they can repeal this if they wish and give the responsibility for calling an election back to the PM?
Would the Lords let them?
Even without repealing it they can always do a Schröder and bring down their own government - nobody else has the votes to form one.
Given that the Fixed Parliament Act was always designed solely for the purposes of the Coalition, I never understood why it was passed as a permanent Act as opposed to one only applying to the 2010-2015 term.
What I've been surprised about, reading the reports of how the Con/Lab team's found out (i.e. by watching the telly with the rest of us) is that it seem's they genuinely do not get a "head's up" about what it's showing before 10pm?
The broadcasters must get given the result some time before 10pm so they can get their scripts and graphics ready, and whilst I know it's supposed to be kept entirely secret until 10pm I always assumed that at some point before 10pm the politicians would be informed about what it's saying...
But it seem's not.
I linked to an article on the day...it stated this year, last data in a 9.15pm, only 5 people see it, output to select media people at 9.45...and that would be it.
What I've been surprised about, reading the reports of how the Con/Lab team's found out (i.e. by watching the telly with the rest of us) is that it seem's they genuinely do not get a "head's up" about what it's showing before 10pm?
The broadcasters must get given the result some time before 10pm so they can get their scripts and graphics ready, and whilst I know it's supposed to be kept entirely secret until 10pm I always assumed that at some point before 10pm the politicians would be informed about what it's saying...
But it seem's not.
The graphics seem pretty generic, I assumed it was a closely-guarded secret until they hit the button, then the graphics get generated on the fly.
Afternoon all. I decided to reward the voters of middle England, who gave me a 50 per cent return on overall betting investment, by purchasing a pair of shoes made by a top Northamptonshire cobbler. Even though my profits came from Tories in Northern and West Country seats (and, er, my only other Labour English constituency bet in Wirral West). Sorry, guys, maybe I'll buy some of your stuff later in the year.
I watched the BBC's 1992 election coverage to prepare for this election and I advise others to watch too. Before the election, the left made the mistake of assuming that the natural desire for change, alone, would deliver victory. After the election, the right made the mistake of assuming that Labour was out for the foreseeable future, the Liberal Democrats were dead, and that they would have to merge to realign and defeat the unchallengeable Conservatives. None of those things was true.
Left-centre parties will probably work together to undermine this government if they sense the opportunity. The DUP and UUPs are not certs to support the government either - the DUP have their own redlines e.g. The Bedroom Tax.
Given how we've seen safe seats overturned at the GE I don't think anyone can say the new Conservative seats in the South-West are an assurity to be safe seats. A large part of that depends on how the tactical vote in these areas mobilise.
Ms The_Apocalypse: Build your coalition:
Labour are over 100 seats behind in England and are fearful of further losses to UKIP. How do they collude against the 'Voice-of-England' - let alone Wales - and expect to win in GE2020? They have more seats in Wales but are in the same place as the Tories in North-Britainshire.
So the opposition is - per se - divided: Labour cannot be seen to kneel to the SNP: That negates 56 opposition seats and, as others have realised, the Ulster-Scots will fall into line (esp. the SF lazy ones): Where is your opposition; and whom will your targets be...?
Cammers has a majority more consolidated than Major's '92 historic victory: Major faced Labour; Cammers faces spratlings....
The UKIP situation will be resolved with the EU referendum for Labour. I also don't buy that Labour have to vote against the SNP on every single issue - your average person will not being paying attention to parliamentary voting so much that if on any issue - say cut in child benefit, as an example - Labour and SNP voted for the same thing, people would go 'OHMGOD!!!! LABOUR ARE COLLUDING AGAINST US!!.
So, there you go - fundamentally most of the opposition are centre-left parties - and that mitigates their differences somewhat.
Cameron actually has a majority of 12 - less than Major in 92; and a string of by-elections could see that majority be undermined too.
Any news on whether the fixed term parliament act is going to be ditched?
Presumably with a Con majority they can repeal this if they wish and give the responsibility for calling an election back to the PM?
The ability to call an election when the economy is at its strongest is the biggest advantage the governing party has, an Autumn election would have delivered a bigger majority.
Any news on whether the fixed term parliament act is going to be ditched?
Presumably with a Con majority they can repeal this if they wish and give the responsibility for calling an election back to the PM?
Would the Lords let them?
Even without repealing it they can always do a Schröder and bring down their own government - nobody else has the votes to form one.
Given that the Fixed Parliament Act was always designed solely for the purposes of the Coalition, I never understood why it was passed as a permanent Act as opposed to one only applying to the 2010-2015 term.
I think the LibDems like it as a matter of principle, while the other parties don't feel strongly either way and would choose based on their short-term advantage, so whether it applied in 2015-2020 was a wash for the Tories since they didn't know whether they'd be in government or not.
Left-centre parties will probably work together to undermine this government if they sense the opportunity. The DUP and UUPs are not certs to support the government either - the DUP have their own redlines e.g. The Bedroom Tax.
Given how we've seen safe seats overturned at the GE I don't think anyone can say the new Conservative seats in the South-West are an assurity to be safe seats. A large part of that depends on how the tactical vote in these areas mobilise.
Sounds like wishful thinking - beware what you wish for - another election anytime soon would finish labour and return a much increased majority conservative goverment
I don't think they'll be another election soon, but tbh you're thoughts (as well as some others on here) also sound like wishful thinking. It's one thing to think it'll be difficult for Labour to win in 2020, it's another to think they'll never win a GE again.
Not really - it is a distinct possibility and certainly only Lord Mandelson on Sky today seemed to talk any sense - labour are in denial
Afternoon all. I decided to reward the voters of middle England, who gave me a 50 per cent return on overall betting investment, by purchasing a pair of shoes made by a top Northamptonshire cobbler. Even though my profits came from Tories in Northern and West Country seats (and, er, my only other Labour English constituency bet in Wirral West). Sorry, guys, maybe I'll buy some of your stuff later in the year.
I watched the BBC's 1992 election coverage to prepare for this election and I advise others to watch too. Before the election, the left made the mistake of assuming that the natural desire for change, alone, would deliver victory. After the election, the right made the mistake of assuming that Labour was out for the foreseeable future, the Liberal Democrats were dead, and that they would have to merge to realign and defeat the unchallengeable Conservatives. None of those things was true.
It looks like they are making the same mistake now, judging from what's been said on PB in the last couple of days.
One way labour could start their comeback is to drop duplicitous terms like bedroom tax. This is a reallocation of welfare benefits. Taxpayers resent being grouped with people in receipt of benefits, however deserving they may be. And this is a note to all politicians. Learn to love your taxpayers.
PT Isam However you look at the figures there are many more ethnic minority voters than UKIP voters, and yes some may become Tories once they have established themselves, but given the Tories want to cap and limit immigration numbers and UKIP even more so, Labour still wins a clear majority of the ethnic minority and immigrant vote, and an even bigger majority of new and first generation immigrants
You are comparing population statistics with voter numbers for a particular - it's total apples and oranges.
Let's not forget that if you believe that the Conservatives can deliver on their "economic plans" they plan for "austerity" to be over a couple of years before the next election.
PT Isam However you look at the figures there are many more ethnic minority voters than UKIP voters, and yes some may become Tories once they have established themselves, but given the Tories want to cap and limit immigration numbers and UKIP even more so, Labour still wins a clear majority of the ethnic minority and immigrant vote, and an even bigger majority of new and first generation immigrants
I agree to an extent. A couple of years back Sunil did some excellent work on the changing demographics of ethnicity in London. It was one reason reason I took his tip on Ilford North.
But BME Britons share much the same suburban aspirations. There are nuances (Leicester Asians are not generally keen gardners, and like more rooms as bigger familes) but the dreams are much the same. New builds are increasingly very much more mixed communities. Aspirational BME Brits do just what their Jewish predecessors did. They move from the East End to North London suburbs when they can afford to do so.
One other point before I cut my own lawn: Labour needs to remember that there are suburbs in other cities- not just London!
Left-centre parties will probably work together to undermine this government if they sense the opportunity. The DUP and UUPs are not certs to support the government either - the DUP have their own redlines e.g. The Bedroom Tax.
Given how we've seen safe seats overturned at the GE I don't think anyone can say the new Conservative seats in the South-West are an assurity to be safe seats. A large part of that depends on how the tactical vote in these areas mobilise.
Sounds like wishful thinking - beware what you wish for - another election anytime soon would finish labour and return a much increased majority conservative goverment
I don't think they'll be another election soon, but tbh you're thoughts (as well as some others on here) also sound like wishful thinking. It's one thing to think it'll be difficult for Labour to win in 2020, it's another to think they'll never win a GE again.
Not really - it is a distinct possibility and certainly only Lord Mandelson on Sky today seemed to talk any sense - labour are in denial
If we're taking the situation Labour win never get power again here is this: at some point people get fed up with the incumbent. The idea that the country will forever on elect Conservative governments goes against that pretty much timeless rule of politics.
My 8 year old daughter shows more maturity, when told she can't have a dog, than the British Left, when told they can't be the government.
"Look, the things, we can't always have what we want" "But I WANNNNTS us to be government!!!" "I know, Labour, I know, but sometimes life is -" "WAAAAH"
*runs out of room, throws toys out of window, starts riot*
You have it easy!
My 3 year old daughter asked who Cameron and Miliband were, so I said we had to choose which one was going to run the country
One way labour could start their comeback is to drop duplicitous terms like bedroom tax. This is a reallocation of welfare benefits. Taxpayers resent being grouped with people in receipt of benefits, however deserving they may be. And this is a note to all politicians. Learn to love your taxpayers.
Wouldn't matter if they did; it's now part of the language.
I think the Tories should remove any restrictions on taking in lodgers and increase the level of rent that can be taken in lodging rent before tax is paid. Would ease housing pressure, be great for the environment, and turn benefit recipients into Landlords. Carrot and stick not just stick.
Left-centre parties will probably work together to undermine this government if they sense the opportunity. The DUP and UUPs are not certs to support the government either - the DUP have their own redlines e.g. The Bedroom Tax.
Given how we've seen safe seats overturned at the GE I don't think anyone can say the new Conservative seats in the South-West are an assurity to be safe seats. A large part of that depends on how the tactical vote in these areas mobilise.
Sounds like wishful thinking - beware what you wish for - another election anytime soon would finish labour and return a much increased majority conservative goverment
I don't think they'll be another election soon, but tbh you're thoughts (as well as some others on here) also sound like wishful thinking. It's one thing to think it'll be difficult for Labour to win in 2020, it's another to think they'll never win a GE again.
Not really - it is a distinct possibility and certainly only Lord Mandelson on Sky today seemed to talk any sense - labour are in denial
If we're taking the situation Labour win never get power again here is this: at some point people get fed up with the incumbent. The idea that the country will forever on elect Conservative governments goes against that pretty much timeless rule of politics.
I am not saying the government will always be conservative but I don't see the labour party being in government again without a fundamental change and that means most of present labour leaving their comfort zones and on the evidence to date, though in early days, there are too many dinosaurs
Left-centre parties will probably work together to undermine this government if they sense the opportunity. The DUP and UUPs are not certs to support the government either - the DUP have their own redlines e.g. The Bedroom Tax.
Given how we've seen safe seats overturned at the GE I don't think anyone can say the new Conservative seats in the South-West are an assurity to be safe seats. A large part of that depends on how the tactical vote in these areas mobilise.
Sounds like wishful thinking - beware what you wish for - another election anytime soon would finish labour and return a much increased majority conservative goverment
I don't think they'll be another election soon, but tbh you're thoughts (as well as some others on here) also sound like wishful thinking. It's one thing to think it'll be difficult for Labour to win in 2020, it's another to think they'll never win a GE again.
Not really - it is a distinct possibility and certainly only Lord Mandelson on Sky today seemed to talk any sense - labour are in denial
If we're taking the situation Labour win never get power again here is this: at some point people get fed up with the incumbent. The idea that the country will forever on elect Conservative governments goes against that pretty much timeless rule of politics.
I'm sure a labour party will win again, the question is what type of labour party can win without any seats in scotland for the foreseeable future.
Add in Ev4EL, or even independence, then they're going to find it difficult without be much closer to 'New labour' than the majority of their supporters/activists want them to be,
One way labour could start their comeback is to drop duplicitous terms like bedroom tax. This is a reallocation of welfare benefits. Taxpayers resent being grouped with people in receipt of benefits, however deserving they may be. And this is a note to all politicians. Learn to love your taxpayers.
'Bedroom Tax' was one of only two good pieces of political marketing Labour cam up with during the parliament ('omnishambles' being the other). I don't blame them for using it but they seemed to believe it was a magic card to power when in reality it affected relatively few people, many (most?) of whom voted for them anyway. And, of course, Labour introduced the 'tax' in the first place to the private sector. Indeed, the reason why Labour introduced it explains why it didn't have widespread appeal as a campaign tool: the policy was broadly fair and supported as such. They would do well to drop the subject now.
Fox Agree, but that links in with my main point that it is aspirational suburban voters Labour need to win whether they live in Worcester, Cardiff or Hendon
Luckyguy There are 5 million ethnic minority voters, 3.8 million voted UKIP on Thursday
My 8 year old daughter shows more maturity, when told she can't have a dog, than the British Left, when told they can't be the government.
"Look, the things, we can't always have what we want" "But I WANNNNTS us to be government!!!" "I know, Labour, I know, but sometimes life is -" "WAAAAH"
*runs out of room, throws toys out of window, starts riot*
You have it easy!
My 3 year old daughter asked who Cameron and Miliband were, so I said we had to choose which one was going to run the country
"But I want to run the country! I'm in charge!"
Hmm - Does she have a position on civil liberties and deficit reduction? Depending on what they are, perhaps she should have a shot.
Interesting from Frank Field in the MoS on how Labour should look carefully at why they went wrong in the election. He can't be thinking of running for leader, can he?
There is not a lot I disagree with there. Sadly there are too few in the party with similar views and certainly noone in with a shot at becoming leader.
It's amazing that at least one Labourite is willing to see that Labour's divisive politics has no future. I was constantly getting told by Surby and others that I was wrong and non-Muslims wouldn't care about Labour's pandering policies. I really, really hope that the next Labour leader can eliminate these elements of the party, either Muslims vote for the Labour agenda or they don't. No special treatment, and definitely no laws that infringe on our basic freedoms to try and get them to turn out.
Chuka loves his identity politics. May go down great in certain areas but will drive working class voters in droves to UKIP. For this reason I hope Labour have Chuka as leader and Mrs Dromey deputy leader.
Can the Government now withdraw all support in terms of advertising those public sector positions it has in its gift, to The Guardian? And switch to having them listed online. High time that particular organ was kicked off a cliff.
...So, there you go - fundamentally most of the opposition are centre-left parties - and that mitigates their differences somewhat.
So, GE2020, who will be fighting for Scottish seats: How will they campaign and what promises will they make? And how do they stop the English electorate from noticing?
The next Labour/LD/UKIP leader will be English: Why waste resources on winning Scotland when they know that they are hated there? The Union is dead: UK and EU. Let us build a better future....
Left-centre parties will probably work together to undermine this government if they sense the opportunity. The DUP and UUPs are not certs to support the government either - the DUP have their own redlines e.g. The Bedroom Tax.
Given how we've seen safe seats overturned at the GE I don't think anyone can say the new Conservative seats in the South-West are an assurity to be safe seats. A large part of that depends on how the tactical vote in these areas mobilise.
Sounds like wishful thinking - beware what you wish for - another election anytime soon would finish labour and return a much increased majority conservative goverment
I don't think they'll be another election soon, but tbh you're thoughts (as well as some others on here) also sound like wishful thinking. It's one thing to think it'll be difficult for Labour to win in 2020, it's another to think they'll never win a GE again.
Not really - it is a distinct possibility and certainly only Lord Mandelson on Sky today seemed to talk any sense - labour are in denial
If we're taking the situation Labour win never get power again here is this: at some point people get fed up with the incumbent. The idea that the country will forever on elect Conservative governments goes against that pretty much timeless rule of politics.
Indeed. Optimism is just running quite high for many Tories right now, and pessimism for Labour. The SNP would do well to remember that fundamental as well.
My 8 year old daughter shows more maturity, when told she can't have a dog, than the British Left, when told they can't be the government.
"Look, the things, we can't always have what we want" "But I WANNNNTS us to be government!!!" "I know, Labour, I know, but sometimes life is -" "WAAAAH"
*runs out of room, throws toys out of window, starts riot*
They don't really want to be in government: they're far happier marching and protesting against the Tories than they are feeling betrayed by their own side.
However, set against that is the uncomfortable fact for them that the country didn't want them either.
Let's not forget that if you believe that the Conservatives can deliver on their "economic plans" they plan for "austerity" to be over a couple of years before the next election.
That would be nice, but I fully expect them to push it back to just before, as people react once again poorly to harsh cuts. It was pushed back to 2017, then 2018, and it will be pushed back to 2020 as well.
Left-centre parties will probably work together to undermine this government if they sense the opportunity. The DUP and UUPs are not certs to support the government either - the DUP have their own redlines e.g. The Bedroom Tax.
Given how we've seen safe seats overturned at the GE I don't think anyone can say the new Conservative seats in the South-West are an assurity to be safe seats. A large part of that depends on how the tactical vote in these areas mobilise.
Sounds like wishful thinking - beware what you wish for - another election anytime soon would finish labour and return a much increased majority conservative goverment
I don't think they'll be another election soon, but tbh you're thoughts (as well as some others on here) also sound like wishful thinking. It's one thing to think it'll be difficult for Labour to win in 2020, it's another to think they'll never win a GE again.
Not really - it is a distinct possibility and certainly only Lord Mandelson on Sky today seemed to talk any sense - labour are in denial
If we're taking the situation Labour win never get power again here is this: at some point people get fed up with the incumbent. The idea that the country will forever on elect Conservative governments goes against that pretty much timeless rule of politics.
How do Labour cross the yawning chasm from where they are now to a majority, without having to answer the inconvenient question about a deal with the SNP if the polls point to a hung parliament?
handandmouse I do not want to go over all the arguments I made yesterday again, but being smug and metropolitan did not stop Blair and Obama and Labour does not need to target the working class, they are in relative decline and moving to UKIP in many cases, but the suburban middle classes Blair won. Umunna needs to add them to the ethnic vote and public sector vote much as Obama did. Labour no longer need to win working class marginals like Rugby and Romford for a majority after Thursday, they both had big Tory majorities, they do need to win suburban Hendon, Brighton Kemptown and Worcester which had smaller majorities
Again, the UK is not the US, there aren't enough people in those groups to get Labour their majority. They need the working classes in a way the Dems don't. We don't have 1m+ Mexicans coming into the border states every year who will eventually vote Labour. Eastern Europeans are pretty evenly split, Indians are majority Conservative, Muslims will vote Labour but policies aimed at them will repel more votes than would be attracted.
There is no easy fix for Labour but abandoning the working classes to UKIP is surely not the answer. You want to turn Labour into the Lib Dems, but at their peak the Lib Dems only won 7m votes which is not enough to break the Tory hold on England.
"Indians majority Conservative"
Have you got any evidence to back up this assertion?
There was a study:
"The number of Indian voters identifying with the Labour party has fallen from 77 per cent in 1997 to just 18 per cent in 2014 - a fall of over three quarters, according to the figures from the British Election Study."
Indians are naturally conservative people, tend to be well educated business owners, Labour doesn't appeal to Indians as an ideology and most people I know see their politics of segregation patronising. It might play differently among Muslim and Black immigrants, but among Indians the message is quite clear, thanks, but no thanks.
Mr Slack. That is why I fear for labour. Deep down there is a romantic love for violent, anarchic lawless protest and its perpetrators. There is an impulse for revolution. That will never go down in England. Never. And soon England will rule itself.
My 8 year old daughter shows more maturity, when told she can't have a dog, than the British Left, when told they can't be the government.
"Look, the things, we can't always have what we want" "But I WANNNNTS us to be government!!!" "I know, Labour, I know, but sometimes life is -" "WAAAAH"
*runs out of room, throws toys out of window, starts riot*
You have it easy!
My 3 year old daughter asked who Cameron and Miliband were, so I said we had to choose which one was going to run the country
"But I want to run the country! I'm in charge!"
Hmm - Does she have a position on civil liberties and deficit reduction? Depending on what they are, perhaps she should have a shot.
Civil liberties - she can do what she wants (she thinks)
Deficit reduction - still magic money tree at the moment. Although she has figure out what a credit card is...
Left-centre parties will probably work together to undermine this government if they sense the opportunity. The DUP and UUPs are not certs to support the government either - the DUP have their own redlines e.g. The Bedroom Tax.
Given how we've seen safe seats overturned at the GE I don't think anyone can say the new Conservative seats in the South-West are an assurity to be safe seats. A large part of that depends on how the tactical vote in these areas mobilise.
Sounds like wishful thinking - beware what you wish for - another election anytime soon would finish labour and return a much increased majority conservative goverment
I don't think they'll be another election soon, but tbh you're thoughts (as well as some others on here) also sound like wishful thinking. It's one thing to think it'll be difficult for Labour to win in 2020, it's another to think they'll never win a GE again.
Not really - it is a distinct possibility and certainly only Lord Mandelson on Sky today seemed to talk any sense - labour are in denial
If we're taking the situation Labour win never get power again here is this: at some point people get fed up with the incumbent. The idea that the country will forever on elect Conservative governments goes against that pretty much timeless rule of politics.
Indeed. Optimism is just running quite high for many Tories right now, and pessimism for Labour. The SNP would do well to remember that fundamental as well.
Agreed but the optimism is not misplaced - it is a realistic reading of the earthquake that has just happened in British politics
I'm sure a labour party will win again, the question is what type of labour party can win without any seats in scotland for the foreseeable future.
Add in Ev4EL, or even independence, then they're going to find it difficult without be much closer to 'New labour' than the majority of their supporters/activists want them to be,
Labour party activists will have to compromise, much like they did in the 1990s. But I don't personally believe 'New Labour' is the answer - NL ideology also has various aspects to it that in today's political climate would be unpopular (pro-EU, liberal on immigration neo-con of foreign intervention etc). It's more about being in the centre ground and where that is. On Scotland, I feel they'll go independent before 2020 - but if that doesn't happen, then I'd say the SNP will not be as liked as they are right now in Scotland, so Labour - depending on what they do in the next five years - have a chance of making a few inroads. They'll never regain their dominance in Scotland, of course.
I am not saying the government will always be conservative but I don't see the labour party being in government again without a fundamental change and that means most of present labour leaving their comfort zones and on the evidence to date, though in early days, there are too many dinosaurs
I actually see several potential Labour leadership figures - Creasy, Kendall - and hopefully, Jarvis - all willingly to move out of their comfort zones. The old dinosaurs of the Blair-Brown era are practically gone, with the exception of Cooper and Burnham.
I'm sure a labour party will win again, the question is what type of labour party can win without any seats in scotland for the foreseeable future.
Add in Ev4EL, or even independence, then they're going to find it difficult without be much closer to 'New labour' than the majority of their supporters/activists want them to be,
Labour party activists will have to compromise, much like they did in the 1990s. But I don't personally believe 'New Labour' is the answer - NL ideology also has various aspects to it that in today's political climate would be unpopular (pro-EU, liberal on immigration neo-con of foreign intervention etc). It's more about being in the centre ground and where that is. On Scotland, I feel they'll go independent before 2020 - but if that doesn't happen, then I'd say the SNP will not be as liked as they are right now in Scotland, so Labour - depending on what they do in the next five years - have a chance of making a few inroads. They'll never regain their dominance in Scotland, of course.
I am not saying the government will always be conservative but I don't see the labour party being in government again without a fundamental change and that means most of present labour leaving their comfort zones and on the evidence to date, though in early days, there are too many dinosaurs
I actually see several potential Labour leadership figures - Creasy, Kendall - and hopefully, Jarvis - all willingly to move out of their comfort zones. The old dinosaurs of the Blair-Brown era are practically gone, with the exception of Cooper and Burnham.
Interesting from Frank Field in the MoS on how Labour should look carefully at why they went wrong in the election. He can't be thinking of running for leader, can he?
There is not a lot I disagree with there. Sadly there are too few in the party with similar views and certainly noone in with a shot at becoming leader.
It's amazing that at least one Labourite is willing to see that Labour's divisive politics has no future. I was constantly getting told by Surby and others that I was wrong and non-Muslims wouldn't care about Labour's pandering policies. I really, really hope that the next Labour leader can eliminate these elements of the party, either Muslims vote for the Labour agenda or they don't. No special treatment, and definitely no laws that infringe on our basic freedoms to try and get them to turn out.
Chuka loves his identity politics. May go down great in certain areas but will drive working class voters in droves to UKIP. For this reason I hope Labour have Chuka as leader and Mrs Dromey deputy leader.
Other than increasing NI (IMO a bad idea), I pretty much agree with everything Field says. Totally wasted on the backbenches and somebody who even after all these years isn't consumed by the group think of either the Westminster bubble nor just his party.
I still think that the two halfs of Labour are set on different paths. If a Blairite wins I could see a left wing splinter breaking off in the north before electoral oblivion occurs. If a far left leader wins there is the chance of the SDP returning, spearheaded by Ben Bradshaw.
handandmouse I do not want to go over all the arguments I made yesterday again, but being smug and metropolitan did not stop Blair and Obama and Labour does not need to target the working class, they are in relative decline and moving to UKIP in many cases, but the suburban middle classes Blair won. Umunna needs to add them to the ethnic vote and public sector vote much as Obama did. Labour no longer need to win working class marginals like Rugby and Romford for a majority after Thursday, they both had big Tory majorities, they do need to win suburban Hendon, Brighton Kemptown and Worcester which had smaller majorities
Again, the UK is not the US, there aren't enough people in those groups to get Labour their majority. They need the working classes in a way the Dems don't. We don't have 1m+ Mexicans coming into the border states every year who will eventually vote Labour. Eastern Europeans are pretty evenly split, Indians are majority Conservative, Muslims will vote Labour but policies aimed at them will repel more votes than would be attracted.
There is no easy fix for Labour but abandoning the working classes to UKIP is surely not the answer. You want to turn Labour into the Lib Dems, but at their peak the Lib Dems only won 7m votes which is not enough to break the Tory hold on England.
"Indians majority Conservative"
Have you got any evidence to back up this assertion?
There was a study:
"The number of Indian voters identifying with the Labour party has fallen from 77 per cent in 1997 to just 18 per cent in 2014 - a fall of over three quarters, according to the figures from the British Election Study."
Indians are naturally conservative people, tend to be well educated business owners, Labour doesn't appeal to Indians as an ideology and most people I know see their politics of segregation patronising. It might play differently among Muslim and Black immigrants, but among Indians the message is quite clear, thanks, but no thanks.
Can the Government now withdraw all support in terms of advertising those public sector positions it has in its gift, to The Guardian? And switch to having them listed online. High time that particular organ was kicked off a cliff.
Yes it could, and the next Labour government could impose political balance requirements on all newspapers: net losers, Conservatives.
It is the same with postal votes and party funding: the systems may not be ideal but they favour the Conservatives most, and then Labour, so change is never urgent. There are more Tory papers than Labour ones, but there are some Labour ones. Endanger the latter and there is no reason not to attack the former. It would be a pyrrhic victory.
Scotland will now get more powers and the dominant constitutional debate will move to the EU.
Either the UK votes to exit, in which case Scotland probably leaves the UK too, or it narrowly votes In, which could well give UKIP the same boost the SNP had in Scotland, especially if Cameron led the In campaign. A large In margin is the least likely outcome in my view
I suspect you are wrong: IN VOTES % x 2015 GE Market Share Labour voters: 70% IN. x 30.5% =21.4% LD voters 95% IN x 7.8% = 7.4% UKIP voters 100% out x 12.6% (12.6)% SNP 100% IN x4.7% = 4.7% Greens etc.. 3.8% x 90% (say) 3.4%
Sub Total 24.3% IN
Conservatives.... Share 36.9%.
To get a OUT answer, they need 65% of ALL Conservatives to vote NO..
That is unlikely in my view.. 50% Out is I suspect the best which would give (-18.9)% OUT or a net Total of 5.4% IN.
I forecast an IN vote unless the EU makes no concessions in which case the above is nonsense..
SNP support for EU is split pretty evenly between IN and OUT.
Left-centre parties will probably work together to undermine this government if they sense the opportunity. The DUP and UUPs are not certs to support the government either - the DUP have their own redlines e.g. The Bedroom Tax.
Given how we've seen safe seats overturned at the GE I don't think anyone can say the new Conservative seats in the South-West are an assurity to be safe seats. A large part of that depends on how the tactical vote in these areas mobilise.
Sounds like wishful thinking - beware what you wish for - another election anytime soon would finish labour and return a much increased majority conservative goverment
I don't think they'll be another election soon, but tbh you're thoughts (as well as some others on here) also sound like wishful thinking. It's one thing to think it'll be difficult for Labour to win in 2020, it's another to think they'll never win a GE again.
Not really - it is a distinct possibility and certainly only Lord Mandelson on Sky today seemed to talk any sense - labour are in denial
If we're taking the situation Labour win never get power again here is this: at some point people get fed up with the incumbent. The idea that the country will forever on elect Conservative governments goes against that pretty much timeless rule of politics.
How do Labour cross the yawning chasm from where they are now to a majority, without having to answer the inconvenient question about a deal with the SNP if the polls point to a hung parliament?
That assumes the SNP will be as popular as they are now (if Scotland stays in the unions) and will be kingmakers, though.
handandmouse I do not want to go over all the arguments I made yesterday again, but being smug and metropolitan did not stop Blair and Obama and Labour does not need to target the working class, they are in relative decline and moving to UKIP in many cases, but the suburban middle classes Blair won. Umunna needs to add them to the ethnic vote and public sector vote much as Obama did. Labour no longer need to win working class marginals like Rugby and Romford for a majority after Thursday, they both had big Tory majorities, they do need to win suburban Hendon, Brighton Kemptown and Worcester which had smaller majorities
Again, the UK is not the US, there aren't enough people in those groups to get Labour their majority. They need the working classes in a way the Dems don't. We don't have 1m+ Mexicans coming into the border states every year who will eventually vote Labour. Eastern Europeans are pretty evenly split, Indians are majority Conservative, Muslims will vote Labour but policies aimed at them will repel more votes than would be attracted.
There is no easy fix for Labour but abandoning the working classes to UKIP is surely not the answer. You want to turn Labour into the Lib Dems, but at their peak the Lib Dems only won 7m votes which is not enough to break the Tory hold on England.
"Indians majority Conservative"
Have you got any evidence to back up this assertion?
There was a study:
"The number of Indian voters identifying with the Labour party has fallen from 77 per cent in 1997 to just 18 per cent in 2014 - a fall of over three quarters, according to the figures from the British Election Study."
Indians are naturally conservative people, tend to be well educated business owners, Labour doesn't appeal to Indians as an ideology and most people I know see their politics of segregation patronising. It might play differently among Muslim and Black immigrants, but among Indians the message is quite clear, thanks, but no thanks.
What about Moslem Indians?
There aren't many of them, but they tend to identify as Indian, at least the ones that came via East Africa. The women don't wear burkhas and the men drink and smoke. I would place them in the Tory camp but maybe not as strongly as Hindu and Sikh Indians. Labour do best among Pakistani and Bangladeshi Muslims and it is clear the leadership pander to them by pledging to introduce blasphemy laws for Islam.
Scotland will now get more powers and the dominant constitutional debate will move to the EU.
Either the UK votes to exit, in which case Scotland probably leaves the UK too, or it narrowly votes In, which could well give UKIP the same boost the SNP had in Scotland, especially if Cameron led the In campaign. A large In margin is the least likely outcome in my view
I suspect you are wrong: IN VOTES % x 2015 GE Market Share Labour voters: 70% IN. x 30.5% =21.4% LD voters 95% IN x 7.8% = 7.4% UKIP voters 100% out x 12.6% (12.6)% SNP 100% IN x4.7% = 4.7% Greens etc.. 3.8% x 90% (say) 3.4%
Sub Total 24.3% IN
Conservatives.... Share 36.9%.
To get a OUT answer, they need 65% of ALL Conservatives to vote NO..
That is unlikely in my view.. 50% Out is I suspect the best which would give (-18.9)% OUT or a net Total of 5.4% IN.
I forecast an IN vote unless the EU makes no concessions in which case the above is nonsense..
SNP support for EU is split pretty evenly between IN and OUT.
And that makes 2.3% difference so basically my argument still holds..
Can the Government now withdraw all support in terms of advertising those public sector positions it has in its gift, to The Guardian? And switch to having them listed online. High time that particular organ was kicked off a cliff.
Yes it could, and the next Labour government could impose political balance requirements on all newspapers: net losers, Conservatives.
It is the same with postal votes and party funding: the systems may not be ideal but they favour the Conservatives most, and then Labour, so change is never urgent. There are more Tory papers than Labour ones, but there are some Labour ones. Endanger the latter and there is no reason not to attack the former. It would be a pyrrhic victory.
That would be insanely authoritarian.
Postal votes and State funding of parties only ever really favour Labour.
IMHO Labour should disband its Scottish contingent, who should set up a new party (Social Unionists? Something like that?) that has a CSU-type relationship with the rUK party. Weve spoken about this for a long time as regards the Scottish Tories, but now I think all the major unionist parties could do with thinking about it.
Can the Government now withdraw all support in terms of advertising those public sector positions it has in its gift, to The Guardian? And switch to having them listed online. High time that particular organ was kicked off a cliff.
Yes it could, and the next Labour government could impose political balance requirements on all newspapers: net losers, Conservatives.
It is the same with postal votes and party funding: the systems may not be ideal but they favour the Conservatives most, and then Labour, so change is never urgent. There are more Tory papers than Labour ones, but there are some Labour ones. Endanger the latter and there is no reason not to attack the former. It would be a pyrrhic victory.
It would merely be levelling the playing field - no other major newspapers would carry the ads either. If the Guardian can get enough readers and advertisers to keep it going, that's great, but it should not be state subsidised.
Labour (should it ever return to Government in its present form) will never be able to impose anything like what you suggest.
Can the Government now withdraw all support in terms of advertising those public sector positions it has in its gift, to The Guardian? And switch to having them listed online. High time that particular organ was kicked off a cliff.
Yes it could, and the next Labour government could impose political balance requirements on all newspapers: net losers, Conservatives.
It is the same with postal votes and party funding: the systems may not be ideal but they favour the Conservatives most, and then Labour, so change is never urgent. There are more Tory papers than Labour ones, but there are some Labour ones. Endanger the latter and there is no reason not to attack the former. It would be a pyrrhic victory.
Do you think there will be a print press when (or a very big if) labour get into power again !!!!
I still think that the two halfs of Labour are set on different paths. If a Blairite wins I could see a left wing splinter breaking off in the north before electoral oblivion occurs. If a far left leader wins there is the chance of the SDP returning, spearheaded by Ben Bradshaw.
Yes. The New Labour folk believe that Ed Miliband lost because he turned left. The left believe that New Labour fractured the traditional support in the working class and the 2/3 of Labour's donation money from the Unions wants more of the same. These are deeply held views. Then there are the party employees view that Labour should just carry on hammering at the Conservatives (Chris Leslie camp) and ignore the policy......
Can the Government now withdraw all support in terms of advertising those public sector positions it has in its gift, to The Guardian? And switch to having them listed online. High time that particular organ was kicked off a cliff.
Yes it could, and the next Labour government could impose political balance requirements on all newspapers: net losers, Conservatives.
It is the same with postal votes and party funding: the systems may not be ideal but they favour the Conservatives most, and then Labour, so change is never urgent. There are more Tory papers than Labour ones, but there are some Labour ones. Endanger the latter and there is no reason not to attack the former. It would be a pyrrhic victory.
You cannot impose 'balance' requirements in the print media. It is a private functioning market, not an organ of the state. To do so is to effectively abolish freedom of the press and amounts to little more than a fundamental attack on one of the basic tenets of liberal democracy.
Not that I don't think Labour are insane enough to consider it, mind.
MaxPB At the 2010 election 68% of ethnic minority voters as a whole voted Labour 16% Tory.
61% of Indians voted Labour, 24% Tory (even if they do not automatically vote Labour), 60% of Pakistanis voted Labour, 13% Tory, Bangladeshi voters voted 72% Labour 18% Tory, Caribbean voters 78% Labour, 9% Tory, African voters 87% Labour, 8% Tory. www.runnymedetrust.org/uploads/EMBESbriefingFINALx.pdf
MPSE Working class voters who have moved to UKIP will stick to UKIP, Labour needs to win suburban middle class voters and consolidate its support with ethnic minorities
Can the Government now withdraw all support in terms of advertising those public sector positions it has in its gift, to The Guardian? And switch to having them listed online. High time that particular organ was kicked off a cliff.
Yes it could, and the next Labour government could impose political balance requirements on all newspapers: net losers, Conservatives.
It is the same with postal votes and party funding: the systems may not be ideal but they favour the Conservatives most, and then Labour, so change is never urgent. There are more Tory papers than Labour ones, but there are some Labour ones. Endanger the latter and there is no reason not to attack the former. It would be a pyrrhic victory.
You cannot impose 'balance' requirements in the print media. It is a private functioning market, not an organ of the state. To do so is to effectively abolish freedom of the press and amounts to little more than a fundamental attack on one of the basic tenets of liberal democracy.
Not that I don't think Labour are insane enough to consider it, mind.
The BBC are the elephant in the room over anything in the media
Comments
Charity bet is £10 - if you just round the transfer up to £60 I can take care of the donation at this end if it's easier.
But perhaps rather than go immediately he says he'll go in a year or something, to give the party time to sort out candidates, and he'll throw his hat back into the ring 'reluctantly' when the public seems lukewarm to the other candidates and are calling for him to stay on. Assuming everything else is going positively for him, which is not certain of course.
Having to lie to win an arguments not a good trait
I'm going to miss Ed.
No, it was that it Aston Ham vs West Villa United.....
If nothing else, it keeps him really in touch with the public mood.
Presumably with a Con majority they can repeal this if they wish and give the responsibility for calling an election back to the PM?
Shortly before the explosive 10pm exit poll was broadcast on Thursday night, Ed Miliband was working on his ‘victory’ speech at his detached constituency home in a pretty south Yorkshire village.
He ordered Lord Wood, his head of strategy who was at his side, to send a message to shadow cabinet ministers not to be triumphalist on the television and radio as the night wore on.
During the evening, Miliband had been buoyed by positive messages coming in from some polling stations suggesting Labour were on course to win enough seats to form a government.
So when the exit poll came through, Miliband was stunned. He was holding his head in his hands, and shouting at the television that the forecast must be wrong.
Bob Roberts, the head of press who was with him in the house, immediately began fielding telephone calls from candidates who suddenly realised that they were going to lose.
‘Even so, somehow they managed to convince themselves in that Doncaster bubble that the poll must be wrong,’ says one Labour figure. ‘It was only as the night wore on that the terrible truth dawned on them. The poll was wrong – in that it had underestimated the Tory support.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3074175/Ed-writing-victory-speech-came-exit-poll-ANDREW-PIERCE-reflects-catastrophic-night-Labour-leader.html
Now it might all be Daily Mail nonsense, but in this case I am not so sure.
A six or eight sided contest of nonentities under electoral college AV must have a fair chance of spewing out the "wrong" result once again...
As Big Ben struck 10pm and polling stations closed, staff at Labour’s London headquarters awaited the moment of truth. The results of the Curtice exit poll flashed up on the BBC, Sky and ITV. “I looked round and saw rows of people all with their hands over their mouths,” said a Labour staffer. “It was if the whole room was witnessing some terrible tragedy unfold before their eyes.”
Miliband’s aides made contact with London HQ and agreed to put out a line pouring cold water on the poll. A “Labour source” texted a statement to journalists: “We are sceptical of the BBC poll. It looks wrong to us.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/10/election-2015-exit-polls
Compare that with Loud Howard telling the News UK Party that Crosby / Messina he said to him their info said over 300....hours before the polls closed.
So we can only presume that if Loud Howard knew at News International, so did all the workers at CCHQ. Where as Labour were in the dark until the Exit Poll came through on the MSM.
Labour are over 100 seats behind in England and are fearful of further losses to UKIP. How do they collude against the 'Voice-of-England' - let alone Wales - and expect to win in GE2020? They have more seats in Wales but are in the same place as the Tories in North-Britainshire.
So the opposition is - per se - divided: Labour cannot be seen to kneel to the SNP: That negates 56 opposition seats and, as others have realised, the Ulster-Scots will fall into line (esp. the SF lazy ones): Where is your opposition; and whom will your targets be...?
Cammers has a majority more consolidated than Major's '92 historic victory: Major faced Labour; Cammers faces spratlings....
Even without repealing it they can always do a Schröder and bring down their own government - nobody else has the votes to form one.
What I've been surprised about, reading the reports of how the Con/Lab team's found out (i.e. by watching the telly with the rest of us) is that it seem's they genuinely do not get a "head's up" about what it's showing before 10pm?
The broadcasters must get given the result some time before 10pm so they can get their scripts and graphics ready, and whilst I know it's supposed to be kept entirely secret until 10pm I always assumed that at some point before 10pm the politicians would be informed about what it's saying...
But it seem's not.
King Charles III.
The greatest tragedy of Ed's wasted five years is the tactic of announcing almost no policies means no new stars could establish themselves.
I watched the BBC's 1992 election coverage to prepare for this election and I advise others to watch too. Before the election, the left made the mistake of assuming that the natural desire for change, alone, would deliver victory. After the election, the right made the mistake of assuming that Labour was out for the foreseeable future, the Liberal Democrats were dead, and that they would have to merge to realign and defeat the unchallengeable Conservatives. None of those things was true.
So, there you go - fundamentally most of the opposition are centre-left parties - and that mitigates their differences somewhat.
Cameron actually has a majority of 12 - less than Major in 92; and a string of by-elections could see that majority be undermined too.
But BME Britons share much the same suburban aspirations. There are nuances (Leicester Asians are not generally keen gardners, and like more rooms as bigger familes) but the dreams are much the same. New builds are increasingly very much more mixed communities. Aspirational BME Brits do just what their Jewish predecessors did. They move from the East End to North London suburbs when they can afford to do so.
One other point before I cut my own lawn: Labour needs to remember that there are suburbs in other cities- not just London!
My 3 year old daughter asked who Cameron and Miliband were, so I said we had to choose which one was going to run the country
"But I want to run the country! I'm in charge!"
I think the Tories should remove any restrictions on taking in lodgers and increase the level of rent that can be taken in lodging rent before tax is paid. Would ease housing pressure, be great for the environment, and turn benefit recipients into Landlords. Carrot and stick not just stick.
Another way labour could start to rebuild their party is to get on the Telly and condemn those riots unreservedly.
Add in Ev4EL, or even independence, then they're going to find it difficult without be much closer to 'New labour' than the majority of their supporters/activists want them to be,
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/09/john-prescott-ed-miliband-election-campaign-labour
Luckyguy There are 5 million ethnic minority voters, 3.8 million voted UKIP on Thursday
The next Labour/LD/UKIP leader will be English: Why waste resources on winning Scotland when they know that they are hated there? The Union is dead: UK and EU. Let us build a better future....
However, set against that is the uncomfortable fact for them that the country didn't want them either.
"The number of Indian voters identifying with the Labour party has fallen from 77 per cent in 1997 to just 18 per cent in 2014 - a fall of over three quarters, according to the figures from the British Election Study."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11294984/Labours-crucial-ethnic-minority-vote-set-to-collapse.html
From the BES study on ethic minority voters.
Indians are naturally conservative people, tend to be well educated business owners, Labour doesn't appeal to Indians as an ideology and most people I know see their politics of segregation patronising. It might play differently among Muslim and Black immigrants, but among Indians the message is quite clear, thanks, but no thanks.
That is why I fear for labour. Deep down there is a romantic love for violent, anarchic lawless protest and its perpetrators. There is an impulse for revolution.
That will never go down in England. Never. And soon England will rule itself.
Deficit reduction - still magic money tree at the moment. Although she has figure out what a credit card is...
I actually see several potential Labour leadership figures - Creasy, Kendall - and hopefully, Jarvis - all willingly to move out of their comfort zones. The old dinosaurs of the Blair-Brown era are practically gone, with the exception of Cooper and Burnham.
I actually see several potential Labour leadership figures - Creasy, Kendall - and hopefully, Jarvis - all willingly to move out of their comfort zones. The old dinosaurs of the Blair-Brown era are practically gone, with the exception of Cooper and Burnham.
Maybe they go insolvent if they pay out on it?
It is the same with postal votes and party funding: the systems may not be ideal but they favour the Conservatives most, and then Labour, so change is never urgent. There are more Tory papers than Labour ones, but there are some Labour ones. Endanger the latter and there is no reason not to attack the former. It would be a pyrrhic victory.
There is no Opposition:
Case:
SNP: Hold 56 Scottish Seats.
How will any English[/Welsh]-based party campaigning approach to seek to recover them? The answer is simple:
By not bothering. Why wind-up your local support...?
England is the greater part and the Welsh and Ulster-Scots know this. Ergo: No effective Opposition....
Postal votes and State funding of parties only ever really favour Labour.
English voters essentially now have a binary choice.
Tories or...
Lab+SNP
I think most English voters would rather stick pins in their eyes than countenance the second option.
Labour (should it ever return to Government in its present form) will never be able to impose anything like what you suggest.
The left believe that New Labour fractured the traditional support in the working class and the 2/3 of Labour's donation money from the Unions wants more of the same.
These are deeply held views.
Then there are the party employees view that Labour should just carry on hammering at the Conservatives (Chris Leslie camp) and ignore the policy......
Not that I don't think Labour are insane enough to consider it, mind.
61% of Indians voted Labour, 24% Tory (even if they do not automatically vote Labour), 60% of Pakistanis voted Labour, 13% Tory, Bangladeshi voters voted 72% Labour 18% Tory, Caribbean voters 78% Labour, 9% Tory, African voters 87% Labour, 8% Tory.
www.runnymedetrust.org/uploads/EMBESbriefingFINALx.pdf
MPSE Working class voters who have moved to UKIP will stick to UKIP, Labour needs to win suburban middle class voters and consolidate its support with ethnic minorities