Impressed with Liz Kendall on delayed playback. She is so much more balanced and normal than Chris Leslie. Although Leslie has so much more experience. Probably better for her and Labour if she is the Leader after the next one. Maybe the next Deputy and a top shadow job? She has no fear of Andrew Neil and handles him very well.
HYUFD is right. Where New Labour got it right was to pitch to aspirant people, and they increasingly either live in the suburbs or aspire to do so.
No one wants to live on a sink inner city estate. What they want is a little of what they see others having. Better more fulfilling jobs, a home where it is safe for kids to play outside, a place where they can invite round friends, etc. Aspiration sells. It may not always be a realistic ambition, but it is what people would choose if it was open to them. Appealing to the suburban mentality is not fashionable, Gentrified inner city or rural retreat is much more so, but suburbs are where most potential Labour voters either live or want to live.
I see it locally in Loughborough and also NW Leics. The engineering and mining that built these towns are gone, the new estates and service industries being built here are changing the demographics. In 2010 they were lost to the Blues and both look like safe seats now. Broxtowe too...
I had to face down the Labour campaign in one of them seats and their methods were really quite interesting. Firstly it was reported to us and we observed they were selective canvassing and only talking to previously known supporters, something I understand the Conservatives did in the late 90's. So it was perhaps no surprise that they kept posting great response on the Labour doorstep as they were just talking to themselves. Their campaign was relentlessly left wing, foodbanks, bedroom tax, cuts and not a word about business or any kind of aspiration.
At the Count they were in genuine shock as they thought they were going to win with this message. At the end of the day they acted more like a left wing protest group than a party that looked competent for Government, hence a significant Conservative majority.
Another interesting side note is how UKIP are penetrating what has been described as the WWC vote that Labour took for granted for so long and who perceive were shafted in the Blair years. If UKIP are looking to prosper, they would benefit from another metropolitan Labour leader who continues the trend of not being able to connect with this section of the population.
Liz Kendall is doing very well with Mr Neil on Sunday Politics. She'd be an excellent leadership candidate.
She already is a candidate. She had him eating out of the palm of her hand, despite him throwing her a few difficult questions.
Anyone who didn't see it should get it up on iplayer.
She is a winner. I just hope Labour is sensible enough to choose her (I have my doubts!)
Yep, you can usually count on Labour to find a way of getting it wrong.
The Conservatives can't talk. The party that elected Hague and then conspired to keep Portillo off the members' ballot which led to IDS being elected provides an object lesson in how not to do it.
Michael Howard got it right by overseeing a prolonged process and making sure Cameron had the right platform to build his profile.
MaxPN Nope, the UKIP vote was also up in the Tory shires, if Cameron leads the In side in the EU referendum they will be just as big a threat to the Tories there as to Labour in their northern heartlands. But second places in the north or the shires will not win the seat, it is still the suburban marginals which win elections. Of course the US has the Tea Party which in many ways mirrors UKIP. Regardless of who Indians identify with even they still vote less Tory and more Labour than white voters
'Tom Watson is one of the frontrunners for Deputy Leader, as we wrote yesterday. Whilst he’s yet to formally announce his candidacy, it certainly seems like he will be – as he’s started crowdfunding his Deputy Leadership bid.'
Exactly what Labour needs to appeal to middle class voters,just need Harman to go for the leadership position and Labour has the dream team.
SE Sunday Politics is bleating about PR and the Kipper vote nationally.
That only 2 seats in the SE aren't Blue Team seems to have passed them by. Their guests are the only Lab MP - Hove and the Tory who got Thanet S so they can talk about UKIP.
Is Cameron DEFINITELY going before the next election? I didn't really follow it, but I never really got the impression that the whole thing was particularly planned, just his current thoughts on the future. It is very easy for someone to take the view that on balance they don't think they will carry on a stressful job some 5 years hence. Whether they feel the same way at a later occasion is another matter.
If he loses the EU ref he is gone. If he wins it I would expect him to leave on top, allow someone to take the divided party forward now the matter is settled, that sort of thing.
But perhaps rather than go immediately he says he'll go in a year or something, to give the party time to sort out candidates, and he'll throw his hat back into the ring 'reluctantly' when the public seems lukewarm to the other candidates and are calling for him to stay on. Assuming everything else is going positively for him, which is not certain of course.
No chance will he throw his hat back in the ring. He's already one of the longest serving Conservative party leaders ever. By the next election he won't have only been PM for a decade, but he'd have been Conservative Party leader for nearly 15 years. He needs to retire eventually and having said he will he won't go back on that.
Besides if he loses the referendum, he'll have to go as you said. If he wins it then he'll retire as a Prime Minister who won two elections and three major referendums - leading to the rejection of electoral reform, Scottish independence and EU exit. An incredible high for any PM to retire on rather than trying to go "on and on" like Thatcher and Blair only to be evicted by your own party like they both were, setting up divisions for years to come.
So far Cameron has been a very different kind of leader to Thatcher or Blair. I think the better parallel is with Angela Merkel who's been party leader for 15 years and Chancellor for 10 and counting. Cameron has so far shown a similar ability to remain enough above the fray that he can remain on top as the political ground shifts around him.
Impressed with Liz Kendall on delayed playback. She is so much more balanced and normal than Chris Leslie. Although Leslie has so much more experience. Probably better for her and Labour if she is the Leader after the next one. Maybe the next Deputy and a top shadow job? She has no fear of Andrew Neil and handles him very well.
Chris Leslie???!!! He's absolutely abhorrent in every way. He's not seriously considering standing for the leadership is he?
Impressed with Liz Kendall on delayed playback. She is so much more balanced and normal than Chris Leslie. Although Leslie has so much more experience. Probably better for her and Labour if she is the Leader after the next one. Maybe the next Deputy and a top shadow job? She has no fear of Andrew Neil and handles him very well.
Watched Leslie, Osborne is on for a free ride.
Would like to see one of the interviewers ask him if he accepts Labour spent too much.
Here we are four days later and all I'm hearing is 'why did Labour lose.' I see the Labour narrative now is the tories and going to 'fragment' because of the EU referendum etc. It doesn't help David Davies hitting the airwaves but I personally don't think they will.
Even if they do, it's a bit complacent of Labour to console themselves that the Tories are going to get a headache with all the challenges they are facing - better to have the power to face them, as Labour would have thought despite having to deal with the SNP if they won.
On Chukka, I wonder if he just naturally appears a bit sneery to me, like an equivalent to what is termed 'resting b****face'. He should work on that. Unless it's an accurate reflection of his opinions, which would be a deeper problem.
Chameleon Pulpstar Oh yes, the traditional working class miners vote, that is what Labour needs to mirror the success of its most successful leader, Michael Foot, not to mention the fact there are barely any miners left and many of their children now live and work in the suburbs. Yes, the polls had a bad night, but still more of the final polls showed the Tories ahead than Labour, it was just a plurality had it neck and neck
I think there must be a number of SLAB MSPs who given the way things are looking should be contemplating defecting to the SNP. There are 15 constituency MSPs who could probably see the fate which waits them in 2016. I wonder if the bookies would be interested in setting up a market for this.
Patrick Indeed, Chinese voters are the most pro Tory ethnic group (the same is true in the US where the last GOP Senate candidate in California was Oriental), but Chinese voters make up only 0.69% of the UK population http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_Kingdom
Small ethnographic point. The fastest growing non-EU demographic is the Chinese. Most UK Chinese used to be Cantonese HongKongers - the restaurant trade. Now the mainland provides the bulk of our Chinese immigrants. Students who never go home, etc. Some are monied. All have the Chinese hard work and socially conservative ethics. Labour is a foreign culture to them. Tories not so much. My wife is Chinese and we have many UK Chinese friends. They all voted Tory. The few that vote at all that is. A promising (and surprisingly numerous but politically invisible) group for the Tories to get interested more in politics. I note the new Tory 2015 MP intake includes the first Chinese MP. Good!
You're claiming a socialist Labour movement is a foreign culture to immigrants from the People's Republic of China?
I don't think the Chinese communist party has much in common with the politically correct liberal left in Britain.
MaxPB The Tories did clearly lose votes to UKIP, they just replaced some with switchers from the Liberals, once an EU referendum has occurred, especially if a narrow IN with Cameron leading the IN campaign, UKIP will again be a headache for the Tories
I don't think so. A large part of driver of the traditional Tory eurosceptic constituency is the feeling of, "No-one asked us about this. We weren't told the truth in 1975. This isn't what the people want." A referendum resulting in an IN vote would completely lance that boil and you would see the mainstream right pragmatically accepting the outcome.
It would depend on what happened after an IN vote. If the EU does not reform, their share of global GDP declines further, UK trade to the rest of the world increases, immigration running at 300k per year, etc., you can be sure euroscepticism will not disappear.
I could see the case for leaving becoming even greater. The concessions gained from the EU having not worked would make an argument for leaving even stronger.
My twitter feed is now full with Labour supporters desperately again trying to convince anybody who will listen (on twitter) that Labour definitely didn't spend too much when they were in power.
MaxPN Nope, the UKIP vote was also up in the Tory shires, if Cameron leads the In side in the EU referendum they will be just as big a threat to the Tories there as to Labour in their northern heartlands. But second places in the north or the shires will not win the seat, it is still the suburban marginals which win elections. Of course the US has the Tea Party which in many ways mirrors UKIP. Regardless of who Indians identify with even they still vote less Tory and more Labour than white voters
UKIP will convert a lot of their second places into victories if Labour ignore the WWC, and they will never replace the Tories as the party of capital and aspiration. They need to concentrate on reconnecting with their WWC voters while simultaneously reaching out to the middle classes. Chuka may achieve the latter but he will alienate the former group. He is not the right guy for Labour. Your obsession with him as the "next Obama" is clouding your judgement.
Bob Blackman increased his majority in Harrow East btw, he is turning it into a Tory stronghold. Even with the decent swing to Labour in London as a whole Ealing only fell by 270 odd votes. Labour are not performing as well as wining anywhere near 60% of the vote in Indian areas.
MaxPB Kendall and Jarvis I agree are both quite capable figures, but both to me would make good deputies to Chuka as leader. Of course Chuka has a tough task ahead but all the arguments made against him now, he is too metropolitan, too elitist, he will turn off the white working class etc were exactly the same arguments made against Barack Obama in 2008 when Hillary trounced him amongst white working class voters in the primaries and 'Joe the Plumber' went for McCain. He won twice, he won white suburban voters and ethnic minority voters, and there is no reason Umunna could not do the same, especially against a Tory Party which will not be led by Cameron in 2020 and likely to have faced division post EU ref
WilliamGlenn A 51-49 In vote with In led by Cameron would see exactly the same arguments of 'betrayal' by eurosceptics as nationalists made against the Labour leadership in indyref
Liz Kendall is doing very well with Mr Neil on Sunday Politics. She'd be an excellent leadership candidate.
I quite agree. However, we aren't likely Labour voters. The union leader Neil is talking to now probably doesn't agree.
From yesterday's thread where David Herdson wisely noted his error in originally thinking Jim Murphy was a good choice for Slab leader, I observed Herdson's law: Partisans must think carefully when offering advice to other parties, and those who fail to obey this law will tend to recommend that other parties shold be more like theirs. I am sure we all fall victim to this law if we have partisan affiliations (or positions on referendums, or so on).
Interesting point. At a distance it seems to me that Scottish Labour needed and needs a tub-thumper, and in 2015 would have been better off with Gordon if he'd been willing. The Tories wouldn't have given him any tactical votes, but they don't anyway (what did fitalass vote, for all her sympathy for Jim?).
It was quite astute of Brown to steer clear - SLAB clearly had further to fall and had he become leader he would have gone down with them.
Is Cameron DEFINITELY going before the next election? snip.
If he loses the EU ref he is gone. If he wins it I would expect him to leave on top, allow someone to take the divided party forward now the matter is settled, that sort of thing.
But perhaps rather than go immediately he says he'll go in a year or something, to give the party time to sort out candidates, and he'll throw his hat back into the ring 'reluctantly' when the public seems lukewarm to the other candidates and are calling for him to stay on. Assuming everything else is going positively for him, which is not certain of course.
No chance will he throw his hat back in the ring. He's already one of the longest serving Conservative party leaders ever. By the next election he won't have only been PM for a decade, but he'd have been Conservative Party leader for nearly 15 years. He needs to retire eventually and having said he will he won't go back on that.
Besides if he loses the referendum, he'll have to go as you said. If he wins it then he'll retire as a Prime Minister who won two elections and three major referendums - leading to the rejection of electoral reform, Scottish independence and EU exit. An incredible high for any PM to retire on rather than trying to go "on and on" like Thatcher and Blair only to be evicted by your own party like they both were, setting up divisions for years to come.
Yes. But a - He is going irrespective, so win or lose the referendum it holds no fears for him. His future is not tied to it. b - The referendum result will affect who the next Tory leader is not Cameron. b - Labour are choosing a leader but do not know what the political landscape will be in 2020. They do not know who the Tory leader will be or the UKIP or the LD.
I expect successful negotiation a YES referendum win and Osborne as next PM (unless he wants an IMF job) Hard to say, if not Osborne. its a question as to what the best job for Boris is eventually, assuming that as long as he is Mayor he cannot be a Minister.
The issues for the Conservatives? Develop a solid 40% strategy including gaining between 5 and 10 Scottish seats. Continue with policies like the devolution of decisions to local areas as shown by the NHS and Social Services policy in the North West. Co-ordination of Social Services and NHS everywhere. Continue to reform welfare, pensions local government and making work pay. Reward aspiration. Genuine protection for the genuine needy.
Leave the left to fight among themselves. Its clear that the left now includes SNP and UKIP. (a telling article from Robert Harris in The Sunday Times)
There is alot of tactical unwind in places like Edinburgh West. Crockhart was within 6% ! A hell of alot of that will be tactical Tories.
SLD did awfully well there and in Jo Swinson's Milngavie constituency in attracting tactical unionists. Also to some extent Gordon. Inverness and Argyll weren't as bad as they should have been. Charles Kennedy, on the other hand, perhaps suffered a cruel personal rebuke. And as expected, Dunfermline and Edinburgh East decayed abysmally.
Liz Kendall is doing very well with Mr Neil on Sunday Politics. She'd be an excellent leadership candidate.
I quite agree. However, we aren't likely Labour voters. The union leader Neil is talking to now probably doesn't agree.
From yesterday's thread where David Herdson wisely noted his error in originally thinking Jim Murphy was a good choice for Slab leader, I observed Herdson's law: Partisans must think carefully when offering advice to other parties, and those who fail to obey this law will tend to recommend that other parties shold be more like theirs. I am sure we all fall victim to this law if we have partisan affiliations (or positions on referendums, or so on).
Interesting point. At a distance it seems to me that Scottish Labour needed and needs a tub-thumper, and in 2015 would have been better off with Gordon if he'd been willing. The Tories wouldn't have given him any tactical votes, but they don't anyway (what did fitalass vote, for all her sympathy for Jim?).
It was quite astute of Brown to steer clear - SLAB clearly had further to fall and had he become leader he would have gone down with them.
Yep, if Murphy resigned then I reckon he'd come back, as lets be honest, he could barely do worse.
There is alot of tactical unwind in places like Edinburgh West. Crockhart was within 6% ! A hell of alot of that will be tactical Tories.
SLD did awfully well there and in Jo Swinson's Milngavie constituency in attracting tactical unionists. Also to some extent Gordon. Inverness and Argyll weren't as bad as they should have been. Charles Kennedy, on the other hand, perhaps suffered a cruel personal rebuke. And as expected, Dunfermline and Edinburgh East decayed abysmally.
Jo certainly got the Mulguy tacticals out for her.
They will have to get their act together quickly because AFAICT they will be the only party who will be defending a no vote in an 'out of Europe' referendum...
Lab, Lib and very probably Con (the leadership at least) will be campaigning for "in".
I don't think you can be sure on Con backing "in" - even the leadership. Denis McShane cogently argues in his book how the Conservatives are riddled with euroscepticism and at best the party will be split. And Labour have their own divisions on Europe.
Comments
She has no fear of Andrew Neil and handles him very well.
Carswell isn't standing as leader and doesn't seem to be backing Farage in a hurry
HYUFD is right. Where New Labour got it right was to pitch to aspirant people, and they increasingly either live in the suburbs or aspire to do so.
No one wants to live on a sink inner city estate. What they want is a little of what they see others having. Better more fulfilling jobs, a home where it is safe for kids to play outside, a place where they can invite round friends, etc. Aspiration sells. It may not always be a realistic ambition, but it is what people would choose if it was open to them. Appealing to the suburban mentality is not fashionable, Gentrified inner city or rural retreat is much more so, but suburbs are where most potential Labour voters either live or want to live.
I see it locally in Loughborough and also NW Leics. The engineering and mining that built these towns are gone, the new estates and service industries being built here are changing the demographics. In 2010 they were lost to the Blues and both look like safe seats now. Broxtowe too...
I had to face down the Labour campaign in one of them seats and their methods were really quite interesting. Firstly it was reported to us and we observed they were selective canvassing and only talking to previously known supporters, something I understand the Conservatives did in the late 90's. So it was perhaps no surprise that they kept posting great response on the Labour doorstep as they were just talking to themselves. Their campaign was relentlessly left wing, foodbanks, bedroom tax, cuts and not a word about business or any kind of aspiration.
At the Count they were in genuine shock as they thought they were going to win with this message. At the end of the day they acted more like a left wing protest group than a party that looked competent for Government, hence a significant Conservative majority.
Another interesting side note is how UKIP are penetrating what has been described as the WWC vote that Labour took for granted for so long and who perceive were shafted in the Blair years. If UKIP are looking to prosper, they would benefit from another metropolitan Labour leader who continues the trend of not being able to connect with this section of the population.
'Tom Watson is one of the frontrunners for Deputy Leader, as we wrote yesterday. Whilst he’s yet to formally announce his candidacy, it certainly seems like he will be – as he’s started crowdfunding his Deputy Leadership bid.'
Exactly what Labour needs to appeal to middle class voters,just need Harman to go for the leadership position and Labour has the dream team.
That only 2 seats in the SE aren't Blue Team seems to have passed them by. Their guests are the only Lab MP - Hove and the Tory who got Thanet S so they can talk about UKIP.
Would like to see one of the interviewers ask him if he accepts Labour spent too much.
The answer will tell us all we need to know.
New Thread
On Chukka, I wonder if he just naturally appears a bit sneery to me, like an equivalent to what is termed 'resting b****face'. He should work on that. Unless it's an accurate reflection of his opinions, which would be a deeper problem.
'You're claiming a socialist Labour movement is a foreign culture to immigrants from the People's Republic of China?'
That's presumably why they left.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_Kingdom
I could see the case for leaving becoming even greater. The concessions gained from the EU having not worked would make an argument for leaving even stronger.
Maybe they should listen to Frank Field.
Bob Blackman increased his majority in Harrow East btw, he is turning it into a Tory stronghold. Even with the decent swing to Labour in London as a whole Ealing only fell by 270 odd votes. Labour are not performing as well as wining anywhere near 60% of the vote in Indian areas.
a - He is going irrespective, so win or lose the referendum it holds no fears for him. His future is not tied to it.
b - The referendum result will affect who the next Tory leader is not Cameron.
b - Labour are choosing a leader but do not know what the political landscape will be in 2020. They do not know who the Tory leader will be or the UKIP or the LD.
I expect successful negotiation a YES referendum win and Osborne as next PM (unless he wants an IMF job)
Hard to say, if not Osborne.
its a question as to what the best job for Boris is eventually, assuming that as long as he is Mayor he cannot be a Minister.
The issues for the Conservatives?
Develop a solid 40% strategy including gaining between 5 and 10 Scottish seats.
Continue with policies like the devolution of decisions to local areas as shown by the NHS and Social Services policy in the North West.
Co-ordination of Social Services and NHS everywhere.
Continue to reform welfare, pensions local government and making work pay.
Reward aspiration. Genuine protection for the genuine needy.
Leave the left to fight among themselves. Its clear that the left now includes SNP and UKIP.
(a telling article from Robert Harris in The Sunday Times)